Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Miami, FL

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628
FXUS62 KMFL 142100
AFDMFL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
400 PM EST SUN FEB 14 2016

...HIGH RISK OF RIP CURRENTS ATLANTIC BEACHES...
...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY ATLANTIC WATERS THIS EVENING-TUE MORNING...

.DISCUSSION...
A RATHER BENIGN WEATHER PATTERN WILL PREVAIL THIS WEEK ACROSS
SOUTH FLORIDA. THE TROUGH ACROSS THE EASTERN SEABOARD WILL
AMPLIFY TUE-WED WITH A COLD FRONT FORECAST TO MOVE ACROSS SOUTH
FLORIDA ON TUESDAY. THE MAIN SHORTWAVE ENERGY THOUGH PASSES BY
WELL TO THE NORTH OF THE REGION. AS SUCH, ONLY A BRIEF BOUT OF
SHOWERS IS EXPECTED WITH THIS SYSTEM.

WINDS WILL BE ON THE INCREASE OUT OF THE EAST TONIGHT-MONDAY,
LEADING TO A HIGH RISK OF RIP CURRENTS ALONG THE ATLANTIC BEACHES
AND HAZARDOUS MARINE CONDITIONS ACROSS THE ATLANTIC.

SHOWER CHANCES WILL INCREASE TONIGHT-TUESDAY AS MOISTURE INCREASES
SLOWLY. A FEW SHOWERS COULD DEVELOP AND MOVE ONSHORE THE ATLANTIC
COAST TONIGHT...THEN WILL BE POSSIBLE AREA WIDE MON-TUE...THOUGH
STILL FOCUSED EAST COASTAL LOCALES. A WEAK COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE
TUESDAY AFTERNOON WILL BRING AN END TO ANY RAIN FROM WEST TO
EAST. TSTORMS ARE NOT EXPECTED DUE TO LACK OF APPRECIABLE
INSTABILITY AND THE DISPLACEMENT OF THE MID/UPPER LEVEL ENERGY TO
THE NORTH.

THE AMPLIFIED TROUGH QUICKLY LIFTS OUT AWAY FROM THE EASTERN
STATES WITH A MID/UPPER RIDGE BUILDING IN OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO
WITH AXIS EXTENDING ACROSS THE SOUTHEASTERN U.S. LATE THIS WEEK.
THIS WILL LEAD TO DRY CONDITIONS ALONG WITH SEASONAL
TEMPS. FRONTS WILL REMAIN OFF TO THE NORTH WITH NICE WEATHER IN
DRY SEASON STYLE FOR SOUTH FLORIDA! /GREGORIA

&&

.AVIATION...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL KEEP THE WEATHER QUIET AND VFR THROUGH
TONIGHT. IT WILL WEAKEN AS A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM BEGINS TO
DEVELOP TO THE WEST. THIS WILL KEEP THE WIND EASTERLY THROUGH
TONIGHT, AND THE TURN THE WIND SOUTHEASTERLY TOMORROW, AS WELL AS
BRING SOME GUSTY CONDITIONS. SOME SHOWER ACTIVITY WILL BE
POSSIBLE TOMORROW AS WELL, BUT IS TO UNCERTAIN FOR ANY MENTION IN
THE TAFS AT THIS TIME. /SI

&&

.MARINE...
WINDS WILL INCREASE OUT OF THE EAST TONIGHT-MONDAY TO AROUND 20
KNOTS ACROSS THE ATLANTIC. AS SUCH, A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WAS
ISSUED FOR THE ATLANTIC BEGINNING MID EVENING CONTINUING THROUGH
EARLY TUE MORNING BEFORE WINDS RELAX. SIG WAVEHEIGHTS WILL PEAK
MOSTLY AROUND 6 FT...BUT 7 FT POSSIBLE BY MON OFF THE PALM BEACH
COAST. NO OTHER MARINE HAZARDS ARE EXPECTED. /GREGORIA

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WEST PALM BEACH  65  78  69  82 /  20  30  50  30
FORT LAUDERDALE  67  78  71  84 /  20  30  40  40
MIAMI            65  79  70  82 /  20  30  50  40
NAPLES           57  79  63  78 /   0  10  40  20

&&

.MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK THROUGH MONDAY EVENING FOR FLZ168-172-173.

AM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 10 PM THIS EVENING TO 4 AM EST TUESDAY
     FOR AMZ650-651-670-671.

GM...NONE.
&&

$$



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