Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Miami, FL

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FXUS62 KMFL 172355
AFDMFL

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Miami FL
655 PM EST Fri Nov 17 2017

.UPDATE...A quiet and pleasant evening across South Florida as
temperatures across the region drop through the upper 60s and low
70s. Light drainage flow setting up for both coasts along with a
little drier air should allow temperatures to dip a few degrees
lower than last night. Lows will reach into the upper 50s and low
60s over the interior and Gulf coast and mid-upper 60s along the
Atlantic coast by sunrise. The current high risk for rip currents
will be allowed to expire at 7pm, with the risk likely remaining
moderate for the east coast through the weekend. Otherwise, no
significant changes to the forecast.

&&

.AVIATION...The few sprinkles that were present earlier have
dissipated with sunset. Mid cloud deck transiting region will push
west, leaving occasional stratocu FL020-030 overnight into the
east coast. NE flow will diminish to 5-8kts by 03Z, with light
drainage (NNW) flow expected at most east coast sites. Dry and VFR
for Sat with ENE winds picking up after 15Z along east coast.
KAPF should see Gulf breeze after 20Z, becoming WNW.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 400 PM EST Fri Nov 17 2017/

DISCUSSION...
Today through the weekend: Drier air over the Western Atlantic
waters will continue to progress southward into S Florida providing
drier pleasant weather through the weekend. Precipitable water
values will remain around 1 inch or less with high pressure building
over the area. Expect northeast flow to gradually shift e into
Saturday. This sets the stage for mainly dry and sunny weekend.

High pressure area over the eastern United States shifts east into
the Atlantic with the approach of the next cold front moving down
Sunday. The front will be near the Lake region around the afternoon
and across the rest of South Florida in the early evening hours. Air
mass ahead of the front will be very dry behind this front limiting
precipitation across South Florida. However, few scattered showers
will accompany the fropa in the late evening and overnight hrs with
the higher chance remaining along coastal areas and Atlantic waters.
Low temperatures will be slightly cooler this weekend, ranging from
the upper 50s interior SW Florida to the 60s elsewhere. High temps
will remain near the 80s.

Monday through Thanksgiving Day: The front will stall over the
Florida Straits Monday, with surface low level winds from the E to
NE. Scattered showers will affect the east coastal areas and the
interior and east coast Tuesday. Longwave trough deepens into Thu
allowing more backing southwest winds aloft. This will continue to
enhance chance of showers and thunderstorms Tuesday into Wednesday.
A composite of the global model guidance points the front becoming
nearly stationary over Central Florida as the closed low in the Gulf
moves slowly east through Thanksgiving Day. This scenario should
keep rain chances fairly high Wednesday through Thanksgiving Day,
but with low confidence in the details of the evolving pattern next
week, wouldn`t be surprised to see changes in timing and coverage of
any precipitation over the next few days. High temperatures will be
in the 80s. Low temps will range from the low 70s to mid 60s through
the week.

MARINE...Small Craft Exercise caution continues through the
evening hours over the Atlantic waters with northeast winds around
15 to 20 knots. Winds and seas lower tonight with decent boating
conditions expected through the weekend. Wind and seas increase
late Sunday night with the passage of the next cold front, with
caution or perhaps even advisory level conditions possible early
next week over all local waters, along with increasing chance of
showers Sunday and Monday.

BEACH FORECAST...A high risk of rip currents will continue this
afternoon over the Atlantic beaches with NE wind of 15-20 mph. The
rip current risk will slowly diminish Saturday but likely remain
elevated, before lowering further on Sunday.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
West Palm Beach  64  82  64  83 /   0   0  10   0
Fort Lauderdale  68  82  68  83 /   0  10  10  10
Miami            68  83  67  84 /   0   0  10  10
Naples           61  81  63  81 /   0   0  10   0

&&

.MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...High Rip Current Risk until 7 PM EST this evening for FLZ168-172-
     173.

AM...None.
GM...None.
&&




AVIATION...88/ALM







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