Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Miami, FL

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FXUS62 KMFL 242337 AAA

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Miami FL
737 PM EDT Mon Jul 24 2017

.AVIATION...Little convection remaining across region and expect a
dry night with all sites becoming light/vrb after 02Z. Seabreezes
developing at all terminals 15Z-16Z, with convective development
just inland of most sites with seabreezes. Have left VCTS out for
now based on today`s trends, though slightly higher coverage
expected for Tues may necessitate it`s inclusion, especially for
KTMB and KPBI, in later packages.


The thunderstorms that been occurring over the interior areas this
afternoon have dissipated leaving only a few showers this evening.
These showers should continue to dissipate through the evening
hours as the heating of the day is lost. Therefore, the thunder
wording has been removed from the interior areas for the evening
hours with only a slight chance of showers. The weather will
remain dry through the overnight hours over all of South Florida,
as the Saharan Air moves slowly west from South Florida in the
Gulf of Mexico. Therefore, no other changes are plan at this time
to the forecast for South Florida.


.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 344 PM EDT Mon Jul 24 2017/



Isolated to scattered showers should continue to develop late
this afternoon along the sea breezes and push into the interior
areas before dissipating around the Lake Okeechobee region this
evening. Therefore, isolated pops will continue over the metro
areas with low end scattered pops over the interior areas this
afternoon into this evening. The weather should then become mostly
dry over South Florida for the overnight hours tonight.

High pressure over the Florida Keys will move northward tonight
and into South Florida on Tuesday. At the same time, the Saharan
Air that been over South Florida will move westward into the Gulf
of Mexico. This will allow for deeper moisture to work into South
Florida, and allow for both the east and west coast sea breezes
to develop and push inland. Therefore, the chance of pops will be
a little bit higher over South Florida on Tuesday compared to
this afternoon.

The high will continue to move northward into Central Florida for
the middle of this week keeping an easterly wind flow over the
area, as another Saharan Air mass works westward from the Eastern
Caribbean Sea into South Florida. This will again lower the pops
over South Florida for the middle of this week with the best
coverage over the interior and west coast metro areas.

Temperatures will also be running above normal through the middle
of this week over South Florida. Highs will be in the mid 90s
over the metro areas to the mid to upper 90s over the interior
areas each day, with lows in the mid 70s over the interior areas
to the upper 70s to around 80 over the metro areas each night.

The high will break down late this week into this weekend over
Central Florida, as a trough of low pressure develops over the
Eastern United States. This will allow for the wind flow over to
become more south to southwest over South Florida. The Saharan
Air over South Florida will also be moving into the Gulf of
Mexico by late this week allowing for deeper moisture to return to
the area leading to an increase in showers and thunderstorms with
the best coverage over the eastern areas of South Florida.

The winds will be 10 knots or less from the east over South Florida
waters through middle of this week, before swinging more to a
southerly direction late this week into this weekend. This will
keep the seas at 2 feet or less over both the Atlantic and Gulf
waters of South Florida. Therefore, boating conditions will be
good outside of any showers or thunderstorms this week.

The relative humidity over South Florida will remain well above
the critical value this week. The dispersions should only get up
into the mid 20s to lower 30s each afternoon over South Florida
due to the easterly winds of 10 knots early this week swinging to
a southerly direction late this week.

West Palm Beach  79  93  79  93 /  10  30  10  20
Fort Lauderdale  81  92  81  92 /  10  30  10  20
Miami            80  93  80  93 /  10  30  10  20
Naples           78  92  78  92 /  10  40  30  20



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