Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Miami, FL

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FXUS62 KMFL 191128 AAA
AFDMFL

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Miami FL
628 AM EST Fri Jan 19 2018

.AVIATION...
The light northwest winds early this morning over the east coast
taf sites should swing to a northeast direction and increase to 5
to 10 knots by late this morning into this afternoon. The winds at
KAPF taf site will remain northeast today at 5 to 10 knots.
The weather will also remain dry along with VFR conditions in the
ceiling and vis at all of South Florida Taf sites today.

&&
AVIATION...54/BNB


.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 440 AM EST Fri Jan 19 2018/

DISCUSSION...
WPC analysis shows a broad area of surface high
pressure sitting stagnant across the deep southern CONUS. Clockwise
flow around this feature has led to northerly flow over the
Florida peninsula. Dry and cool air has been allowed to filter
southward over our CWA. The airmass is slightly more modified than
that of last night with temperatures around 5 degrees higher than
24-hours ago. However, for portions of Glades, Hendry, and
interior Collier counties, temperatures are still on track to drop
into the mid 30s this morning. Even though winds remain light,
generally less than 5 mph, expect only patchy frost to develop.
This does not appear to be a widespread event, making a Frost
advisory unnecessary. By this afternoon, a shortwave will begin to
dig over south Texas, creating weak riding over the eastern Gulf
and Florida peninsula. Increasing subsidence should help
temperatures rebound back into the upper 60s. Ahead of the
aforementioned feature, high clouds will continue to overspread
over the area, but a lack of low levels moisture and instability
should prevent any precipitation from developing.

This weekend through early next week: On Saturday, surface high
pressure meandering eastward, towards the mid Atlantic, will cause
low level flow to veer more to the east northeast. This should
have the effect of increasing moisture levels across the region.
With what is normally the case in an easterly flow regime,
isolated showers are forecast to develop over the Atlantic and
intermittently affect the east coast metro region. Maximum
temperatures on Saturday are forecast to rise to the lower 70s,
just shy of average for this time of year. Sunday through early
next week, both the GFS and ECMWF push a deep trough of low
pressure across the central and southern plains, once again
intensifying the ridge established over Florida. For our area,
this will translate to easterly flow, increased moisture and
precipitation chances, and maximum temperatures rising back into
the upper 70s.

MARINE...
Moderate northeast winds will persist through the
rest of today with subsiding seas. More favorable boating
conditions are expected into the weekend, though seas will remain
choppy over the local Atlantic as winds become east northeast.
There will be a slight chance of showers this weekend through
early next week.

AVIATION...
High pressure is forecast to build to the north of the area. This
would turn the wind to the east through the day tomorrow, and keep
the region mostly dry, although a few showers are possible off the
Atlantic coast. VFR conditions through the period.
&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
West Palm Beach  68  58  73  63 /  10  10  10  20
Fort Lauderdale  68  61  73  66 /  10  10  10  20
Miami            68  59  74  65 /  10  10  10  20
Naples           68  54  73  58 /   0   0  10  20

&&

.MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...None.
AM...None.
GM...None.
&&

DISCUSSION...27/JT
MARINE...27/JT
AVIATION...54/BNB


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