Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Miami, FL

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000
FXUS62 KMFL 202043
AFDMFL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
343 PM EST SAT DEC 20 2014

.DISCUSSION...
DRY CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEKEND WITH
INCREASING CLOUDS. A WEAK TROUGH ACROSS THE CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO
WITH WEST-SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT WILL BE RESPONSIBLE FOR THE
INCREASE IN MOISTURE THROUGH THE WEEKEND. AS THIS TROUGH EXTENDS
TO THE NORTHEAST AND INTO THE BIG BEND REGION...CHANCES FOR
SHOWERS WILL RETURN FOR THE AREA BEGINNING LATE SUNDAY NIGHT INTO
EARLY MONDAY WITH THE BEST CHANCES ACROSS THE NORTH AND CENTRAL
PENINSULA. THUNDERSTORMS WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE ACROSS THESE AREAS
MONDAY AS THE TROUGH COINCIDES WITH WEAK UPPER SUPPORT. KEPT POPS
IN THE SLIGHT CHANCE TO CHANCE CATEGORY ACROSS SOUTH FLORIDA.

DEEP SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT IS STILL EXPECTED TO BEGIN IN EARNEST
MONDAY AFTERNOON PLACING SOUTH FLORIDA FIRMLY IN THE WARM SECTOR
INTO THE DAY ON TUESDAY. MODELS ARE STILL IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH
THE EVOLUTION OF THE H5 SHORTWAVE DIGGING SOUTHWARD INTO THE MID
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY WEDNESDAY AS THE ASSOCIATED SURFACE LOW DEEPENS
ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES. THIS WILL DRIVE A COLD FRONT THROUGH SOUTH
FLORIDA LATE WEDNESDAY.

INSTABILITY PARAMETERS REMAIN FAIRLY MEAGER AT THIS TIME BUT WITH
STRENGTHENING WIND FIELDS...SHOULD BE SUFFICIENT ENOUGH TO PRODUCE
THUNDERSTORMS. MODELS DO SEEM TO SLOW THE FROPA SLIGHTLY FROM
PREVIOUS RUNS. IF THIS TRENDING CONTINUES...THE BEST FORCING COULD
ARRIVE DURING THE PEAK HEATING HOURS WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON WHICH
WOULD HEIGHTEN THE POTENTIAL FOR STRONG STORMS. A COUPLE OF
MITIGATING FACTORS AT THIS TIME ARE THE PROPENSITY FOR PRE-FRONTAL
SHOWERS EARLY WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND MODELS SHIFTING THE UPPER
JET MAX FURTHER NORTH ACROSS THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE AND SOUTHERN
GEORGIA. SUBSEQUENT MODEL RUNS WILL NEED TO BE MONITORED CLOSELY
HOWEVER.

SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD EXIT THE AREA BY CHRISTMAS
MORNING WITH A MUCH COOLER AND DRIER AIR MASS SETTLING INTO SOUTH
FLORIDA. CONSENSUS MODELS HAVE TRENDED A DEGREE OR TWO COOLER FOR
HIGH TEMPERATURES CHRISTMAS DAY AS MOST OF THE AREA MAY NOT GET
OUT OF THE 60S WITH STRONG SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE OVERHEAD. THIS
HIGH WILL QUICKLY MOVE TO THE EAST HOWEVER BRINGING A RETURN TO
EAST-NORTHEASTERLY FLOW BY FRIDAY AND REBOUNDING TEMPERATURES INTO
THE MID 70S. MODELS CONTINUE TO DEPICT DRY CONDITIONS INTO NEXT
WEEKEND WITH ANOTHER COLD FRONT PUSHING INTO THE WESTERN GULF OF
MEXICO.

&&

.AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL AT ALL SOUTH FLORIDA TERMINALS WITH A
LIGHT SOUTHEAST SURFACE WIND. THERE WILL BE A FEW MORE CLOUDS
THIS EVENING AND TONIGHT. WINDS AT APF COULD BECOME S-SW LATER ON
THIS EVENING.

&&

.MARINE...
GENERALLY EAST TO SOUTHEAST FLOW WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH THE GULF WATERS WEDNESDAY AND INTO THE
ATLANTIC WATERS LATE WEDNESDAY INTO EARLY CHRISTMAS DAY. WINDS
WILL VEER TO THE SOUTH AND SOUTHWEST BY MIDWEEK...THEN NORTHWEST
AND NORTH INTO CHRISTMAS. EXPECT BUILDING SEAS...ESPECIALLY
THROUGH THE OFFSHORE GULF WATERS...BY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WEST PALM BEACH  66  79  69  80 /   0  10  20  30
FORT LAUDERDALE  68  79  70  81 /   0  10  20  20
MIAMI            68  80  69  81 /   0  10  10  20
NAPLES           63  78  66  78 /   0  10  20  20

&&

.MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
AM...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...10/CD
LONG TERM....10/CD
AVIATION...71/JE



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