Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Miami, FL

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FXUS62 KMFL 052322 AAA
AFDMFL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
622 PM EST THU MAR 5 2015

.AVIATION...
THE WEATHER SHOULD REMAIN DRY AT ALL OF THE TAF SITES
TONIGHT...EXCEPT FOR KFXE WHERE ONE OR TWO SHOWERS COULD WORK INTO
THIS TAF SITE FROM THE WEST. THE WINDS WILL ALSO BE FROM THE
SOUTH/SOUTHEAST AT 5 TO 10 KNOTS THROUGH 02Z THEN BECOMING LIGHT
AND VARIABLE FOR REST OF TONIGHT. THE ONLY EXCEPTION TO THIS IS
FOR KAPF TAF SITE WHERE THE WINDS WILL BE FROM THE WEST AT 5 KNOTS
UNTIL 02Z.

THE WINDS WILL THEN BECOME EASTERLY ON FRIDAY AT 5 TO 10 KNOTS
OVER ALL OF THE TAF SITES. HOWEVER...THE WINDS AT KAPF TAF SITE
WILL BECOME WESTERLY AFTER 17Z ON FRIDAY DUE TO THE WEST COAST SEA
BREEZE DEVELOPING AND PUSHING INLAND. THERE COULD ALSO BE SOME
SHOWERS AROUND ON FRIDAY OVER SOUTH FLORIDA. SO VCSH WILL BE ADDED
FOR FRIDAY FOR ALL OF THE TAF SITES...EXCEPT KAPF WHERE IT WILL
REMAIN DRY. THE CEILING AND VIS WILL ALSO REMAIN IN THE VFR
CONDITIONS TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY FOR ALL OF THE TAF SITES.

&&
.AVIATION...54/BNB


.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 323 PM EST THU MAR 5 2015/

SYNOPSIS...
COLD FRONT WILL STALL OVER THE REGION FRIDAY INTO THE WEEKEND.
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS BACK INTO THE AREA AT THE BEGINNING OF THE
NEXT WEEK.  WARM AND HUMID CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL.

SHORT TERM (TONIGHT-SUNDAY)...
WARM/HUMID CONDITIONS TODAY WITH SLIGHT SEA BREEZE INTRUSIONS.
TEMPERATURES ARE WELL ABOVE NORMAL...WITH BOTH FLL AND PBI ON
TRACK TO SET/TIE RECORD DAILY MINIMA. ISOLATED SHOWER CLUSTER OVER
INTERIOR COLLIER COUNTY COULD MOVE NNW INTO PORTIONS OF HENDRY
COUNTY AND PERHAPS FAR WESTERN PALM BEACH COUNTY. OTHER THAN WHERE
THIS SEA-BREEZE CONVERGENCE IS PRESENT...SOUTH FLORIDA SHOULD
REMAIN PCPN-FREE THROUGH TONIGHT.

COLD FRONT MOVING THROUGH FLORIDA PANHANDLE THIS AFTERNOON WILL
CROSS CENTRAL FLORIDA TONIGHT...WHILE WEAKENING. IT IS EXPECTED TO
STALL OVER SOUTH FLORIDA FRIDAY...THEN REMAIN IN THE VICINITY
THROUGH THE WEEKEND. LAST SEVERAL MODEL RUNS SUGGEST SLIGHTLY MORE
PRONOUNCED SURFACE BOUNDARY PERSISTING...THUS BETTER CONVERGENCE
AND A BETTER CHANCE FOR SHOWERS NOW IN THE FORECAST. TEMPERATURES
THROUGHOUT PERIOD WILL BE ABOVE NORMAL.

LONG TERM (SUNDAY NIGHT-THURSDAY)...
TEMPERATURES NEXT WEEK WILL REMAIN SEVERAL DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL
FOR MAXIMA AND AROUND 10 DEGREES ABOVE AVERAGE FOR MINIMA. THE
STALLED FRONT WILL LIFT NORTHWARD...WITH DRIER AIR BUILDING IN
FROM THE SOUTH AS HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE BECOMES MORE DOMINANT.
SHOWER CHANCES WILL DIMINISH...BUT ISOLATED ACTIVITY CANT BE RULED
OUT IN SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW.

AVIATION...
MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THE REMAINDER OF THE AFTERNOON
AND THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE INTO NORTH
AND CENTRAL FLORIDA TONIGHT WITH LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS FORECAST
ACROSS THE REGION STARTING AROUND 03Z. FOG IS EXPECTED MAINLY IN
THE INTERIOR AND WEST WITH TERMINAL KAPF POSSIBLY IMPACTED WITH
LOW STRATUS OR FOG AROUND 09Z ALTHOUGH VFR CONDITIONS FORECAST
WITH 00Z OR 06Z TAF`S HAVING MORE DETAIL.

60

MARINE...
COLD FRONT APPROACHES WATERS TONIGHT THEN STALLS OVER THE AREA
THROUGH THE WEEKEND. SOME NORTHERLY WINDS BEHIND THE FRONT MAY
APPROACH ADVISORY LEVELS FRIDAY NIGHT OVER GULF WATERS...WITH SEAS
INCREASING IN THE WATERS OFF PALM BEACH COUNTY OVER THE WEEKEND.
AN ADVISORY MAY ALSO BE NEEDED OVER THESE WATERS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WEST PALM BEACH  70  82  70  80 /  20  30  20  50
FORT LAUDERDALE  71  82  68  79 /   0  20  20  40
MIAMI            71  84  69  82 /   0  20  20  40
NAPLES           66  82  63  81 /   0  20  10  20

&&

.MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
AM...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...85/AG
LONG TERM....23/SK
AVIATION...54/BNB



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