Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Miami, FL

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906
FXUS62 KMFL 080607
AFDMFL

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Miami FL
107 AM EST Thu Dec 8 2016

.AVIATION...
Showers have developed over the southeast metro areas especially
impacting sites from FLL south. Expect brief periods of moderate
to heavy rainfall reducing vis to 2 miles or less as the storms
move through FLL, MIA and TMB. This is also causing ceilings to
lower to MVFR to IFR with the showers moving by. No lightning has
been observed with this activity but an occasional lightning can
not be ruled out. Fog/Stratus may be a concern over interior away
from TAF sites, but at the moment all sites look to remain to be
VFR with the exception of the storms to the south. Next front
comes in tomorrow afternoon with VCSH for all sites after 15Z.
Winds remain light/vrb, becoming more NNE with time behind front.

&&

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 656 PM EST Wed Dec 7 2016/

UPDATE...
The short range models have back off on development of showers
over the southern areas of South Florida for this evening due to
a cap around 925 mbs. However, there could still be a few showers
over the southern interior areas of South Florida this evening
due to the stationary front remaining over the area along with
little of of left over heating from today. Therefore, the pops
have been reduced to 20 percent coverage for the evening hours
over the southern areas of South Florida.

The weather should be dry over most of South Florida late tonight
due to the low level cap in place and the lost of day time
heating. There could still be some shower develop over the
Atlantic and Gulf waters through the nighttime hours tonight.
Therefore, isolated to scattered showers will remain in the
forecast for the Atlantic and Gulf waters and the mainland areas
of South Florida being dry for late tonight.

Rest of the forecast looks good at this time and no other changes
are planned.

UPDATE...54/BNB

PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 634 PM EST Wed Dec 7 2016/

AVIATION...Winds light/vrb at all sites overnight. A few SHRA
south of KHST currently, and may see a few more pop up VCNTY KMIA-
KOPF through 03Z, but right now chances are too low to include in
TAF. Fog/Stratus may be a concern over interior away from TAF
sites, but at the moment all sites look to remain prevailing VFR.
May see some tempo MVFR 04Z-13Z, so have included some SCT010-020
to hint at this possibility. Next front comes in tomorrow afternoon
with VCSH for all sites after 15Z. Winds remain light/vrb, becoming
more NNE with time behind front.

PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 330 PM EST Wed Dec 7 2016/

DISCUSSION...The east and west coast sea breezes have developed
early this afternoon along both coasts of South Florida. The west
coast sea breeze will push across South Florida late this
afternoon, while the east coast sea breeze remains near the east
coast metro areas. This will allow for isolated to scattered
showers to develop over the east coast metro areas late this
afternoon into early this evening where the sea breezes collide,
with the best coverage over the southeast metro areas of South
Florida.

The showers should dissipate over the mainland areas of South
Florida this evening as the heating of the day is lost. However,
patchy fog should develop over the interior and west coast metro
areas late tonight, due to the tropical moisture remaining in
place from a stationary front over South Florida.

The stationary front will remain in place over South Florida on
Thursday, as a short wave over the southern Gulf of Mexico moves
northeast and through the area. This will allow for scattered
showers and possibility of a thunderstorm to affect South Florida.

A cold front over the southeastern United States will also move
southward down the Florida Peninsula on Thursday and through South
Florida late Thursday night into early Friday morning. This front
will push the deeper tropical moisture southward on Friday, but
there could still be some showers around on Friday over the area.
Temperatures should also get back to near or a little bit below
normal this weekend over South Florida with the passage of the
second cold front.

EXTENDED FORECAST...High pressure will build into the
southeastern United States this weekend from the north, as the
secondary front stalls over the Florida Keys. A strong pressure
gradient will set up over the area this weekend leading to breezy
to windy conditions. Isolated to scattered showers should also
develop over the Atlantic waters and work into the east coast
metro areas before dissipating this weekend. Therefore, 20 to 30
percent pops will remain in the forecast for the east coast metro
areas this weekend, while rest of South Florida should remain
mostly dry.

MARINE...The winds will be light and variable over most of the
South Florida waters tonight into Thursday, except northeast 5 to
10 knots over the offshore gulf waters. This will keep the seas at
2 feet or less in both the Atlantic and Gulf waters through
Thursday.

The winds will become northerly on Friday into this weekend with
speeds increasing to at least 20 knots. This will allow for the
Atlantic seas to build to 7 to 10 feet this weekend, as the Gulf
seas building to 6 to 8 feet on Friday before falling below 7 feet
this weekend.

BEACH FORECAST...The risk of rip currents will remain low tonight
into Friday for both the east and west coast beaches of South
Florida. The threat of rip currents should then increase along the
east coast beaches of South Florida this weekend, due to the
breezy to windy north/northeast winds.
&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
West Palm Beach  81  63  72  65 /  50  40  30  30
Fort Lauderdale  82  66  73  66 /  50  40  40  30
Miami            83  67  74  66 /  50  40  40  30
Naples           79  62  70  56 /  30  30  30  10

&&

.MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...None.
AM...None.
GM...None.
&&




AVIATION...67/MT







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