Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Miami, FL

Home | Current Version | Previous Version | Text Only | Print | Product List | Glossary On
Versions: 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44 45 46 47 48 49 50
000
FXUS62 KMFL 300540 CCC
AFDMFL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...CORRECTED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
139 AM EDT TUE SEP 30 2014

.AVIATION...
WESTERLY WINDS WILL CONTINUE OVER ALL OF SOUTH FLORIDA TAF SITES
TODAY WITH WIND SPEEDS LESS THAN 5 KNOTS EARLY THIS MORNING
INCREASING TO 5 TO 10 KNOTS BY THIS AFTERNOON. THE WEATHER WILL
REMAIN DRY THIS MORNING OVER THE EAST COAST TAF SITES...BUT THEN
COULD SEE SOME THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON MAINLY AFTER 17Z. SO
WILL PUT IN VCTS BETWEEN 17Z AND 23Z TODAY FOR THE EAST COAST TAF
SITES. FOR KAPF TAF SITE...VCSH WILL BE IN THE FORECAST BETWEEN 13Z
AND 23Z.

THE CEILING AND VIS WILL REMAIN IN VFR CONDITIONS AT THIS TIME
OVER ALL OF THE TAF SITES...DUE TO THE UNKNOWN TIMING OF THE
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. ONCE THE SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM
ACTIVITY DEVELOPS THEN A TEMPO GROUP WILL BE ADDED TO THE EAST
COAST TAF SITES FOR POSSIBLE REDUCED VIS AND CEILING.

&&
.AVIATION...54/BNB


.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 813 PM EDT MON SEP 29 2014/

AVIATION...
SHRAS/TSRAS SHOULD BE EXITING THE EAST COAST TAF SITES OVER THE
NEXT FEW HOURS GIVING WAY TO VFR CONDITIONS FOR THE REMAINDER OF
THE NIGHT. LIGHT WINDS SHOULD PREVAIL OUT OF THE SOUTHWEST THROUGH
THE NIGHT AND REMAIN SOUTHWEST THROUGH THE DAY TOMORROW AT AROUND
10 KNOTS. SIMILAR MESOSCALE SETUP EXPECTED TOMORROW...SO PLACED
VCTS IN FOR ALL EAST COAST SITES AFTER 18Z-19Z.
&&


PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 352 PM EDT MON SEP 29 2014/

DISCUSSION...
SHOWERS AND STORMS BEGINNING TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE INTERIOR WERE
MOVING SLOWLY OFF TO THE EAST NORTHEAST. LATEST AVAILABLE GUIDANCE
CONTINUED TO INDICATE THAT STORMS WOULD MOVE TOWARDS THE EAST
COAST METRO AREAS LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND LINGER THROUGH THE
EVENING HOURS...ESPECIALLY ACROSS PALM BEACH COUNTY. LOCALLY HEAVY
RAIN AND ISOLATED STREET FLOODING IS POSSIBLE.

AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE IS FORECAST TO DEVELOP OVER THE WESTERN
ATLANTIC TO THE EAST OF GEORGIA TONIGHT AS A SHORTWAVE PUSHES OFF
THE SOUTHEAST CONUS. A FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL DRAPE WESTWARD FROM
THIS LOW ACROSS NORTHERN FLORIDA ON TUESDAY. DEEP WEST TO
SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE REGION...WITH SCATTERED TO
NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND STORMS ONCE AGAIN...HIGHEST EAST. SLIGHTLY
DRIER AIR IS FORECAST TO WORK ITS WAY INTO THE SOUTHERN TIP OF THE
REGION ON TUESDAY...AND WITH THE WEST TO SOUTHWEST FLOW...RAIN
CHANCES ARE HIGHEST NORTH OF MIAMI-DADE COUNTY. WITH THE DEEPER
WESTERLY FLOW...A SEA BREEZE MAY NOT DEVELOP...WITH STORMS
MOVING RIGHT INTO THE ATLANTIC. SO THE THREAT OF HEAVY RAIN MAY BE
A LITTLE LOWER THAN TODAY.

GLOBAL MODELS ARE SLIGHTLY DIFFERENT IN THEIR EVOLUTION OF THE
AREA OF LOW PRESSURE FOR WEDNESDAY. THE ECMWF MOVES THE LOW ONLY
SLOWLY EASTWARD ON WEDNESDAY...WHILE THE GFS HAS THE AREA OF LOW
PRESSURE RACING OFF TO THE NORTHEAST. THE GFS SOLUTION HAS THE
DEEPEST MOISTURE FROM THE TAIL END OF THE LOW AND FRONTAL BOUNDARY
REMAINING ACROSS CENTRAL FLORIDA WHILE THE ECMWF HAS THE BOUNDARY
ACROSS THE LAKE REGION AND THE DEEP MOISTURE ACROSS OUR REGION.
EITHER WAY...SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND STORMS ARE FORECAST
ONCE AGAIN.

STRENGTHENING HIPRES CENTERED OVER CANADIAN MARITIMES WILL BUILD
ALL THE WAY SOUTHWARD INTO NORTHERN FLORIDA THURSDAY AND FRIDAY.
THIS WILL LIKELY FORCE THE DISSIPATING FRONT OVER SOUTH FLORIDA
DURING THE PERIOD...KEEPING A FAIRLY WET WEATHER PATTERN GOING.
CANT RULE OUT SOME DRIER AIR ASSOCIATED WITH THE HIPRES REACHING
INTO NORTHEASTERN AREAS...ESPECIALLY ON FRIDAY. ANOTHER STRONGER
SHORTWAVE TROUGH OVER THE CONUS THIS WEEKEND LOOKS POISED TO SEND
A STRONGER FRONT INTO FLORIDA SATURDAY...AND IT MAY HAVE ENOUGH
PUSH TO CROSS SOUTH FLORIDA ON SUNDAY. UNTIL THAT HAPPENS /IF IT
HAPPENS/...GENERALLY WARM...WET...AND HUMID WEATHER WILL PREVAIL.

MARINE...
SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL VEER TO A WESTERLY DIRECTION TUESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL STALL OVER THE WATERS THURSDAY AND
FRIDAY. THROUGHOUT THE WEEKEND...SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED. AWAY FROM CONVECTION...SEAS SHOULD
REMAIN 4 FEET OR LESS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WEST PALM BEACH  74  89  75  89 /  20  60  20  50
FORT LAUDERDALE  77  91  78  90 /  20  60  20  50
MIAMI            77  91  77  92 /  10  60  20  50
NAPLES           76  89  75  90 /  10  40  10  40

&&

.MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
AM...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...54/BNB
LONG TERM....57/DG
AVIATION...54/BNB


USA.gov is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.