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000
FXUS62 KMFL 200635
AFDMFL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
235 AM EDT THU JUN 20 2013

.SHORT TERM (TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY)...
DEEP LAYER RIDGE WILL REMAIN IN PLACE THROUGH FRIDAY RESULTING IN
ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES ESPECIALLY AT NIGHT ALONG THE EAST COAST
AND A LOW LEVEL EASTERLY FLOW. THE MID LEVEL RIDGE IS CENTERED
VERY NEAR SOUTH FLORIDA SO A VERY WEAK WIND FIELD PERSISTS ABOVE
10-15K FEET RESULTING IN SLOW STORM MOTION. THE DEEP LAYER IS
MOISTURE ALONG WITH 500MB TEMPERATURES ARE NOT VERY IMPRESSIVE BUT
THE LOW LEVELS REMAIN VERY MOIST AND UNSTABLE. AS A RESULT, SOME
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS HAVE DEVELOPED EARLY THIS MORNING ALONG
THE BROWARD COUNTY COAST AND PUSHING SLOWLY INLAND. THIS WILL BE
THE TREND THIS MORNING AND THEN REBUILDING FARTHER INLAND AS
DIURNAL HEATING TAKES OVER WITH THE GREATEST CONCENTRATION OF
ACTIVITY THIS AFTERNOON OVER THE INTERIOR AND COASTAL COLLIER
COUNTY. A TROPICAL WAVE CURRENTLY APPROACHING PUERTO RICO WILL
CONTINUE A WEST NORTHWEST TRACK OVER THE NEXT 48 TO 72 HOURS AND
AS IT APPROACHES SOUTH FLORIDA ON FRIDAY, SOME DRYING WILL TAKE
PLACE IN THE MID LEVELS WITH PWAT DROPPING TO AROUND 1.5 INCHES
AND A LITTLE BIT LOWER POPS. THE WAVE WILL THEN PASS ACROSS SOUTH
FLORIDA ON SATURDAY WITH INCREASE IN MOISTURE WITH PWAT CLIMBING
BACK UP TO AROUND 2 INCHES. THIS WILL INCREASE THE POPS AND AS THE
WAVE NEARS THE COAST FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY, THERE COULD BE
SOME SHOWERY CONDITIONS ALONG THE EAST COAST BUT AT THIS TIME THE
BEST CHANCES WILL BE BROAD BRUSHED UNTIL THE WAVE GETS CLOSER TO
THE REGION.

.LONG TERM (SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)...
THE WAVE WILL CONTINUE TO TRACK WEST OVER THE WEEKEND AND BE WEST
OF THE PENINSULA BY LATE IN THE WEEKEND AND INTO EARLE NEXT WEEK
WITH SOME DRYING ALOFT ONCE AGAIN TAKING PLACE. THE MID LEVEL
RIDGE WILL ALSO REBUILD BACK ACROSS THE PENINSULA WITH A BIT LESS
OF INSTABILITY ALSO IN PLACE AND POPS WILL DROP BACK A LITTLE
BELOW THE AVERAGE FOR LATE JUNE.

&&

.AVIATION...
SOME WEAK INSTABILITY HAS ALLOWED SOME ISOLATED SHOWERS AND STORMS
TO DEVELOP OVER THE ATLANTIC COAST THIS MORNING. THEY SHOULD HAVE
LITTLE IMPACT ON THE TAF SITES AFTER 06Z. THEN, LATER TODAY,
CONTINUED WEAK UPPER LEVEL INSTABILITY WILL COMBINE WITH PLENTY OF
SFC MOISTURE, AND DAYTIME HEATING TO ALLOW ADDITIONAL CONVECTION
TO OCCUR. CURRENTLY THINKING THIS WILL BE MAINLY INLAND,, BUT
THERE IS A SLIGHT POTENTIAL TO IMPACT ALONG THE COASTAL AREAS AS
WELL. FOR NOW, HAVE MAINTAINED THE VCSH IN THE TAFS FOR LATER
TODAY, WITH ACTIVITY WINDING DOWN AROUND 00Z. WINDS WILL PICK UP
OUT OF THE SOUTHEAST AROUND 12 KTS TODAY. THEY SHOULD WEAKEN ONCE
AGAIN TONIGHT, TO BETWEEN 5 AND 10 KTS OUT OF THE SOUTHEAST.

&&

.MARINE...
TRANQUIL WIND AND SEAS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH FRIDAY WITH AN
INCREASE IN THE EASTERLY WIND FIELD BY THE WEEKEND WITH THE
PASSAGE OF THE TROPICAL WAVE. CONDITIONS HOWEVER WILL REMAIN BELOW
ADVISORY LEVELS AND THEN DIMINISH AGAIN EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
NO PROBLEMS OR CONCERNS WITH AMPLE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE IN PLACE.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WEST PALM BEACH  89  78  87  78 / 30 20 20 20
FORT LAUDERDALE  88  81  88  79 / 20 20 20 20
MIAMI            89  79  89  77 / 20 20 20 20
NAPLES           91  74  93  74 / 30 20 30 20

&&

.MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
AM...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION/MARINE/FIRE...30/KOB
AVIATION/RADAR...13/SI