Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Miami, FL

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FXUS62 KMFL 302119 CCA

Area Forecast Discussion...CORRECTED
National Weather Service Miami FL
519 PM EDT MON MAY 30 2016


Water vapor imagery continues to indicate an upper level trough
across the Florida peninsula and adjacent waters and extends south
of Cuba. There is a weakened surface pressure gradient with light
regional winds with the Gulf and Atlantic coast sea breezes well
established this afternoon with active convection across the
western South Florida peninsula this afternoon.

Forecast for tonight and Tuesday...the short term guidance is very
similar to yesterdays in that it suggests that the persistent
upper level trough could induce a weak low level trough early
Tuesday morning....which would allow for a chance of showers and
isolated thunderstorms across the Atlantic waters and Atlantic
metro areas over night. This same scenario resulted in some
isolated convection early Monday morning. Once again some of the
meso-scale model guidance does not pick up on this feature but the
SREF does pick up on it with the forecast going against guidance
with a chance of showers and isolated thunderstorms across the
Atlantic waters and Atlantic metro areas over night. On Tuesday
once again afternoon/early evening showers/thunderstorms forecast
across the peninsula...but latest guidance suggests more activity
could affect the Atlantic and Gulf coast metro areas and near
shore adjacent waters.

Rip currents...with no local swell forecast and light regional
east to southeast winds only a slight risk of rip currents is
expected across the Atlantic coast beaches through Friday.

Forecast for Wednesday through Friday...latest global model consensus
continues to indicate the mid to upper level trough lingering
across the region through at least Thursday then slowly eroding by
Friday with diurnally driven showers/thunderstorms forecast
Wednesday through Friday with greatest coverage across the
interior regions. Forecast regional pwat`s are in the 1.7 to 1.9
inches through this period.

Extended forecast for the upcoming weekend into early next
week...the global models continue to indicate an upper level low
building into Texas and the northwest Gulf late in the week into
Saturday with a broad/weak surface low possible in the northwest
Gulf by Saturday. This scenario could bring a northward surge of
deeper moisture into South Florida Saturday and Sunday with
increasing chances of regional showers/thunderstorms. The 12z
global model runs vary on the northward extent of the moisture
into the weekend and will have to wait and see how this scenario
plays out in guidance trends over the next couple of days and
adjust the forecast accordingly.



Regional winds are forecast to be around 10 knots or less and generally
easterly to southeasterly through Friday with Gulf and Atlantic
seas forecast to be 2 feet or less during this period. However
winds and seas could be higher in or near local thunderstorms.


West Palm Beach  73  87  74  88 /  20  30  10  30
Fort Lauderdale  75  87  76  88 /  20  30  10  30
Miami            75  89  76  89 /  20  50  20  30
Naples           72  89  73  89 /  30  50  20  30


.MFL Watches/Warnings/Advisories...


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