Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Blacksburg, VA

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941
FXUS61 KRNK 221827
AFDRNK

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Blacksburg VA
227 PM EDT Sat Jul 22 2017

.SYNOPSIS...
A cold front will remain just to the north and spark showers
and thunderstorms this weekend. This front should push through
the Mid Atlantic by Monday. High pressure will arrive to bring
cooler conditions by the middle of the week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
As of 225 PM EDT Saturday...

Scattered showers and thunderstorms have developed along the
southern Blue Ridge, while the vast majority of the convection
along the cold front to our north has remained well north of
the CWA. The latest high resolution models only clip areas north
of I-64 later this afternoon. Overall, POPs were reduced
slightly in the early afternoon, but more adjustments will be
made in the next update to account for how the convection
evolves over the next couple hours. The heat and humidity
continues to progress as expected in the Piedmont with heat
indices crossing into the 100-105 degree range at this time.
Highs were also slightly raised in response to the current
temperature trends. It is possible for more rounds of convection
to infiltrate the CWA overnight, so chance POPs were continued
through tonight in VA/WV with slight chance POPs over NC.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
As of 300 AM EDT Saturday...

A couple of mesoscale convective systems will track across to the
north along a frontal boundary from West Virginia and Maryland. An
upper level trough will travel eastward over the Great Lakes Sunday
as a broad upper level ridge remains over the Southeast. The
tenacious upper ridge will keep the heat and humidity over the Mid
Atlantic on Sunday with heat indices reaching over 100 degrees in
parts of the Piedmont. With LIs of minus 4 to minus 6 and CAPE
around 2,000 J/kg Sunday afternoon. SPC day 2 convective outlook
placed most of the forecast area in slight risk for severe
thunderstorms. There is the potential for damaging winds and
possibly hail with stronger thunderstorms across the area. High
temperatures Sunday afternoon will range from the lower 80s in the
mountains to the mid 90s in the piedmont.

Expecting convection to spread east Sunday night and taper off to a
few showers overnight. Low temperatures Sunday night into Monday
morning will vary from the mid 60s in the west to the mid 70s in the
east. Depending on how well the convection can push the frontal
boundary southward over our CWA will play a key role for Mondays
forecast. Kept scattered showers and thunderstorms for Monday
afternoon. The highest chance appears to be along the southern Blue
Ridge and through the northwest North Carolina mountains. High
temperatures Monday will be a couple of degrees cooler than Sunday
with readings from around 80 degrees in the mountains to the lower
90s in the piedmont. Drier air moves in Monday night as high
pressure approaches from the north. Low temperatures Monday night
into Tuesday morning will generally be from around 60 degrees in the
northwest mountains to the lower 70s in the Piedmont.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
As of 330 PM EDT Friday...

High pressure should build over the Northeast by Tuesday. The
frontal boundary will be shoved southward southward toward the North
Carolina coast by this time. Lingering moisture may still spark a
few diurnally-driven showers and thunderstorms during each afternoon
through this period. The best chances appear confined to the VA/NC
border on Tuesday, but more potential exists for Wednesday with
easterly to southeasterly flow from high pressure offshore. There
could be some wedging possible east of the Blue Ridge, so high
temperatures were pushed downward for Wednesday to allow for the
potential of upslope flow along the Blue Ridge and more cloud cover.
Temperatures should bounce back upward by Thursday as high pressure
heads further out into the Atlantic Ocean. Long range models hint at
another frontal boundary approaching our CWA by Friday.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
As of 210 PM EDT Saturday...

Scattered showers and thunderstorms will continue to develop
over the remainder of the afternoon. The most organized
convection should stay to the north, but the chances are good
enough to keep VCTS for all TAF sites except DAN. Confidence is
not high enough yet to mention thunder more strongly, but
amendments will be made if needed through the afternoon.
Otherwise, VFR conditions should persist outside of the showers
and thunderstorms. There is a threat for severe weather, so
turbulence will be an issue this afternoon.

Another cluster of showers and thunderstorms could arrive
overnight toward early Sunday morning near BLF and LWB, but
confidence is too low to mention in the TAFs at this point. High
clouds from convective debris upstream and a breeze through the
night in the mountains will not permit fog to form. Scattered
low clouds were kept for BLF and LWB due to the potential for
MVFR ceilings. Ceilings and visibilities should be VFR during
the day with winds starting to gust from the west just past 18Z
on Sunday afternoon.

Aviation Extended Discussion...

Confidence is growing for the potential of a rather active
period for Sunday afternoon and Sunday night. A cold front will
be passing overhead, which should spark clusters of showers and
thunderstorms. The models shift the front toward North Carolina
by Monday with the potential for convection developing in the
afternoon along the VA/NC border. However, most locations should
remain VFR outside of the convection. Another cold front could
push some of the moisture eastward by Tuesday, but high pressure
may possibly wedge southward on Wednesday to create the
possibility for MVFR/IFR ceilings. Conditions should return to
VFR by Thursday as the weak wedge erodes quickly.

&&

.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VA...Heat Advisory until 7 PM EDT this evening for VAZ044>047-058-
     059.
NC...Heat Advisory until 7 PM EDT this evening for NCZ005-006.
WV...None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...PW
NEAR TERM...PW
SHORT TERM...KK
LONG TERM...PW
AVIATION...PW



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