Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Blacksburg, VA

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562
FXUS61 KRNK 272009
AFDRNK

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Blacksburg VA
409 PM EDT Sat Aug 27 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure will be the dominant weather feature into the first part
of next week with just a chance for an afternoon shower or thunderstorm
west of the Blue Ridge. A weak cold front will then approach from the
west and bring an increasing chance for more showers and storms for the
middle of next week, mainly west of the Ridge.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/...
As of 330 PM EDT Saturday...

The weak backdoor front being pushed along by the wedge of high
pressure building down form the northeast is generating some scattered
showers/storms mainly across Southside VA and into NC. DCAPE values are
quite high and will allow for some storms to have gusty winds, but
overall dynamic support is lacking so the threat for any severe
weather is low. Expect the storms to continue migrating into the NC
mountains before dissipating this evening.

Behind this boundary direr air will work in from the northeast so do
not expect to see extensive fog development unless the pool of warm and
moist air gets hung up west of the Blue Ridge. Much more pleasant
conditions will settle over the region for Sunday with less humidity
and temperatures just slightly above normal. Lows tonight will
generally be in the upper 60s to around 70 degrees east of the Ridge,
with middle 60s to the west. Highs on Sunday will be in the upper
80s./near 90 east to generally mid 80s west.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
As of 400 PM EDT Saturday...

Models are in relative agreement with a broad area of high
pressure persisting from the Mid-Atlantic westward into the
central CONUS early in the week. Wind flow during this period will
be from the northeast with models indicating relatively stable air
east of the Blue Ridge. A surface frontal boundary is forecast to
approach from the northwest Monday night into Tuesday, albeit
weak.

For Monday, can`t rule out an isolated shower or thunderstorm
west of the Blue Ridge, but support for anything greater in terms
of coverage appears lacking. Surface front drifting in from the
north should permit a bit more coverage Tuesday.

Temperatures through early week will remain quite warm with highs
in the 80s to near 90. Overnight will generally be in the 60s.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
As of 400 PM EDT Saturday...

General model consensus for the second half of the week is for
the upper ridge to give way to some weak upper level troughing
over the eastern CONUS, progressive flow across the northern tier
states gradually whittling away at the eastern ridge. This should
allow for another front to come through from the northwest during
the period, although model uncertainty is high with respect to
timing per unresolved solutions ongoing in the tropics. As such
will keep the forecast pretty close to persistence with respect to
precip probabilities, but shave a degree or two off the
temperature per potential for drier air to infiltrate from the
north later in the week, temperature trending closer to normal.

&&

.AVIATION /20Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
As of 300 PM EDT Saturday...

Weak backdoor front associated with wedge of high pressure
building down form the northeast is generating some scattered
thunderstorms across the region especially near KDAN. Expect the
storms to exit the vicinity of KDAN around 20Z and activity at
other sites will remain quite isolated so will not mention in the
TAFs. All showers/storms are expected to dissipate early this
evening.

Behind this boundary direr air will work in from the northeast and
call into question the potential for fog/stratus development
overnight. TAF sites west of the Blue Ridge may be lingering in
the moist air long enough to generate some degree of low clouds
and fog, but based on predictors in the meso models believe the
most likely scenario is for the drier air to move in fast enough
to prohibit the need to mention fog or low clouds at all sites.
This is not a high confidence forecast and the potential for below
VFR conditions will be reevaluated with later model runs. With
the dry wedge in place for tomorrow, good flying conditions are
expected at all sites through the end of the TAF period.

Winds will generally be light from the northeast through the
period.

Extended aviation discussion...

A weak west-east oriented front will drift south through the
forecast area Sun-Mon. Isolated diurnally driven convection will
be possible along the front, mainly north of I-64 Sun, toward the
I-64 corridor Mon, then toward the NC/SC border by Tue. Coverage
will be limited in duration and area on all days and have minimal
impact on the TAF sites. Late night/early morning fog/low clouds
are possible, but not a certainty. At this time, it does not
appear that any tropical systems will impact the CWA.

&&

.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VA...None.
NC...None.
WV...None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...MBS
NEAR TERM...MBS
SHORT TERM...PM
LONG TERM...PM
AVIATION...MBS/RAB



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