Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS San Angelo, TX

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000
FXUS64 KSJT 211135
AFDSJT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN ANGELO TX
634 AM CDT THU AUG 21 2014

.AVIATION...
/12Z TAFS/

Look for MVFR ceilings across much of West Central Texas this
morning, before clearing mid to late morning. Satellite and METAR
data indicate stratus is returning to West Central Texas. Expect
VFR conditions to return to all of West Central Texas by 18Z, as
drier air aloft mixes downward to dissipate the stratus.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 420 AM CDT THU AUG 21 2014/

SHORT TERM...
(Today and Tonight)

Expect dry conditions for the next 24 hours, with afternoon highs
today above seasonal normals. As an upper ridge continues to
dominate the region, a thermal ridge at 850mb will expand into West
Central Texas this afternoon. This will help push afternoon highs
into mainly the upper 90s to around 100 range for most of West
Central Texas. Morning low clouds will help limit afternoon highs
across our southern counties to mainly around 95.

LONG TERM...
(Friday through Wednesday)

The upper level high over the lower Mississippi Valley on Friday
will slowly move north during the weekend, and is progged to be
centered over southeastern Missouri and extreme southern Illinois
on Monday. This will be our dominant weather influence with clear
to partly cloudy skies through the early part of next week. Little
day-to-day change is expected with our temperatures. Highs will be
a few degrees above normal and mostly in the mid to upper 90s, with
overnight lows mostly in the lower 70s. Models continue to indicate
a few weak disturbances aloft lifting from New Mexico northeast
across the Texas Panhandle and into Kansas during the weekend. Any
associated convection is expected to stay to our west and
northwest.

The 00Z GFS and ECMWF diverge in solutions Tuesday-Thursday of
next week, and this has implication on whether a weak cold front
may enter our area from the north. The GFS is more progressive
with the upper pattern and has a stronger upper trough moving east
across the northern and central Rockies on Tuesday, and across the
northern and central Plains Wednesday. The GFS has an upper ridge
building into the western part of the country behind the trough,
with weak northwest flow aloft developing over our area by the end
of the period. This setup would favor a weak cold front moving
south into our counties late Wednesday and Wednesday night, with
some possibility of shower/thunderstorm development. The ECMWF
closes off an upper low over northern California Monday night,
then takes it slowly east to near the Idaho/Utah/Wyoming border by
Wednesday night. The ECMWF also has the upper high drifting back
to the southwest, to along the Oklahoma/Arkansas border Tuesday
night.

Given the considerable model differences and uncertainty at this
time, leaning toward persistence with the forecast on Day 7 (next
Wednesday).

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Abilene  98  76  97  72  97 /   0   5   0   0   5
San Angelo  97  75  97  71  97 /   0   5   0   0   5
Junction  95  75  95  70  95 /   5   0   5   0   0

&&

.SJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

Short Term/Aviation: Huber
Long Term: 19






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