Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS San Angelo, TX

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FXUS64 KSJT 022322
AFDSJT

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service SAN ANGELO TX
622 PM CDT MON MAY 2 2016

.AVIATION...
/00Z TAFS/

Expect VFR conditions at the terminals during the next 24 hours.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 338 PM CDT MON MAY 2 2016/

SHORT TERM...
(Tonight and Tuesday)

Last of the showers and thunderstorms were moving east in Brown
County at 3 PM. Drier air was moving into the region from the
north with clearing skies over the Big Country, Concho Valley and
Crockett County.

Skies will clear across the rest of West Central Texas this
evening. This will set up good radiational cooling conditions as
surface high pressure settles over the region and winds become
light. Forecast lows are in the mid 40s. A few protected spots may
see lower 40s, particularly in river valleys.

The main forecast problem/question is fog development Tuesday
morning. There has been heavy rainfall of 1 to 2 inches in
portions of the Big Country and Northern Concho Valley overnight
and earlier this morning (with lighter amounts elsewhere). With
the clearing taking place in the afternoon, vegetation and soils
are still moist and wet. Will add some patchy fog for late tonight
and early Tuesday morning.

04

LONG TERM...
(Tuesday night through Monday)

A sharp mid/upper-level ridge will exist over the Rockies by
Tuesday afternoon, extending north into the western Prairie
Provinces. Downstream of this ridge, a potent shortwave trough
will be diving south across the Southern Plains Tuesday afternoon
and evening. Scattered showers and thunderstorms are expected to
develop to our north Tuesday afternoon, eventually moving south
into the Big Country during the evening hours. This convection
should be in the decaying phase and is forecast to remain north
of the Colorado River for the most part, dissipating by 06z. This
should mark the end of our precipitation chances for a few days.

Northwesterly flow aloft is anticipated Wednesday and Thursday as
the upper-level ridge axis remains to our west. This will result
in mostly clear skies and moderating temperatures. Winds will be
from the northwest on Wednesday in the wake of a weak cold front,
eventually veering around from the southeast on Thursday as the
surface anticyclone moves east of the CWA. Midweek low temps will
generally be in the low/mid 50s with afternoon highs in the
low/mid 80s.

A deep trough will dig over the southwest CONUS during the latter
half of the work week. As this trough moves slowly east, winds
aloft will veer southwesterly. We`ll see an increase in high
clouds by Friday, with southerly winds ramping up into the 10-20
mph range. The dryline looks to remain well to the west near the
TX/NM state line on Friday, but is forecast to mix east into West
TX during the afternoon hours on Saturday and Sunday. The dryline
position is something to keep an eye on given the models` recent
poor performance handling the low-level moisture.

Increasing low-level moisture and synoptic scale forcing for
ascent will enhance instability over the weekend, although the
BUFR soundings indicate that capping may be an issue, especially
if cloud cover is slow to erode. We anticipate overnight lows
generally in the 60s Friday and beyond, with afternoon highs
remaining in the 80s. Low PoPs (20-40%) are warranted areawide
Saturday through Monday. The anticipated pattern will be
supportive of a severe weather threat, but we`re still several
days from getting a good look at the important details.

Johnson

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Abilene  46  76  52  81 /   0   5  20   0
San Angelo  46  78  51  84 /   0   0  10   0
Junction  46  77  50  84 /   0   0   5   0

&&

.SJT Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
None.
&&

$$

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