Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS San Angelo, TX

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FXUS64 KSJT 102353 AAA
AFDSJT

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service SAN ANGELO TX
553 PM CST Sat Dec 10 2016

.AVIATION...
/00Z TAFS/

The two main aviation forecast with this package are with low
cloud ceilings, and gusty winds.

A low cloud field encompasses the area southeast of a line from
Ozona to San Angelo to Abilene, with MVFR ceilings. This low
cloud field will gradually expand north tonight, moreso after
Midnight. This will affect all of our TAF sites, although KABI
may be near the northern edge of the low cloud cover. The low
cloud field will remain into mid-morning Sunday before breaking
up. VFR conditions are expected at all of our TAF sites on
Sunday afternoon with generally clear skies.

Gusty south or south-southwest winds will continue through
tonight at KABI and KSJT. A decrease in south winds is expected
later this evening and overnight for our southern terminals.
However, low-level wind shear could occur at our southern
terminals, given the strength of the low-level jet. An amendment
to these TAFs may be needed to include low-level wind shear. On
Sunday, winds will veer to southwest in the morning. The higher
wind speeds and gusts are expected at KABI and KSJT. Winds will
increase and become gusty at our southern TAF sites.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 339 PM CST Sat Dec 10 2016/

SHORT TERM...
(Tonight and Sunday)

..Unseasonably warm Sunday...

Low clouds have remained entrenched across southeast counties this
afternoon and will spread north across much of the area this evening
and overnight. South winds have been quite gusty across central and
northern portions of the forecast area, due to a tightening pressure
gradient in response to surface low pressure in the lee of the
Rockies. Low level moisture will increase tonight, with low clouds
spreading north across much of the area. Temperatures will be much
warmer tonight due to cloud cover and the increase in low level
moisture, with overnight lows mainly in the mid and upper 40s.

On Sunday, low clouds will scour out by late morning as surface
winds veer southwest. It will be breezy, with southwest winds
gusting between 20 and 30 mph, except across far southern counties
where winds will be lighter. Southwest winds combined with 850mb
warm advection will push temperatures well above normal for
this time of year, with afternoon highs mainly in the lower 70s.

LONG TERM...
(Sunday Night through next Saturday)

Mild weather will continue into early next week, with highs Monday
and Tuesday generally in the lower 60s in the Big Country to the
mid 60s and lower 70s over the remainder of the CWA. Morning lows
will be in the upper 30s to the lower 40s on Monday with low to
upper 40s Tuesday and Wednesday mornings. A weak dry cold front on
Wednesday will lower afternoon highs into the 50s north of I-20
with pre-frontal highs in the 70s south of I-20. Highs on Thursday
will be in the upper 40s north to the upper 50s south. Morning
lows will dip into the lower 30s north and the lower 40s south on
Thursday before returning to the low to upper 40s Friday morning.

Friday will usher in a mild weekend with mid 60s for afternoon
highs and upper 50s to the upper 60s on Saturday. Morning lows
Friday and Saturday will be in the 40s.

15

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Abilene  54  47  70  38 /   0   0   0   0
San Angelo  58  46  73  41 /   0   0   0   0
Junction  53  45  70  43 /   5  10   0   0
Brownwood  53  47  71  40 /   0   5   0   0
Sweetwater  54  44  72  39 /   0   0   0   0
Ozona       52  40  69  39 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.SJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$



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