Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS San Angelo, TX

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FXUS64 KSJT 060514
AFDSJT

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service SAN ANGELO TX
1114 PM CST FRI FEB 5 2016

.AVIATION...
/06Z TAFS/

VFR through the next 24 hours, with northwest winds becoming light
tomorrow evening. 20

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 623 PM CST FRI FEB 5 2016/

AVIATION...
/00Z TAFS/

VFR conditions through the next 24 hours. A cold front will turn
southwest winds this evening to the northwest at all sites by
03Z/9PM or 04Z/10PM. Northwest winds may be gusty at KABI tonight
behind the front, and across the rest of the area by late tomorrow
morning. 20

PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 333 PM CST FRI FEB 5 2016/

SHORT TERM...
(Tonight and Saturday)

A surface trough in the Permian Basin this afternoon will move
into the western sections of the Big Country and Concho Valley
early this evening, with winds temporarily becoming west. The
surface trough will be overtaken by a cold front later this
evening. The front should move along a San Angelo to Abilene to
Throckmorton line 9 to 10 PM, with winds becoming northwest at 10
to 20 mph and gusty. Southern sections along the I-10 corridor
will see lighter winds of 5 to 15 mph. Winds will keep the
atmosphere mixed overnight, keeping low in the low/mid 30s in the
Big Country and upper 20s along the I- 10 corridor.

Downslope compressional northwest to north winds and sunny skies
on Saturday will allow temperatures to rise back into the upper
50s to around 60. This is similar to highs today.

LONG TERM...
(Saturday Night through Friday)

Not much to say about the longer term part of the forecast, with
continued dry conditions. Deep upper level trough will dive into
the Mississippi Valley and combine with a ridge over the US West
Coast to produce northwest flow across West Central Texas for much
of the period. Warm conditions are likely on Sunday, before a cold
front drops temperatures back to near normal for Monday. Warmup
starts on Tuesday with afternoon highs heading back into the 70s
for the rest of the week.

FIRE WEATHER...

.Dry air will elevate fire weather conditions into next week...

A surface trough with west winds of 8 to 15 mph will move along a
San Angelo to Sweetwater to Haskell line early this evening. It
will be overtaken by a cold front with stronger 20 foot northwest
winds of 10 to 15 mph later this evening. The front will likely
move along a San Angelo to Abilene to Throckmorton line 9 to 10
PM. There will be limited relative humidity recovery tonight with
dry air behind the front. On Saturday, winds will weaken midday
and afternoon with winds gradually shifting to the west. Minimum
RH values Saturday will be in the 17 to 24 percent range.

Another cold front will move through Sunday afternoon in the Big
Country and Concho Valley, and early evening farther south. Winds
will shift northwest, then north with frontal passage. Fire
weather conditions will be elevated Sunday afternoon, however,
winds will remain below critical levels.

Very dry air will remain over the region next week, with minimum
relatively humidity values in the teens into Thursday. Very dry
fuels and dry air will keep fire weather conditions elevated, as
highs rise into the 70s midweek.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Abilene  35  57  32  63 /   5   0   0   0
San Angelo  32  62  32  71 /   0   0   0   0
Junction  30  60  28  69 /   5   0   0   0

&&

.SJT Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
None.
&&

$$


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