Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS San Angelo, TX
FXUS64 KSJT 202312
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN ANGELO TX
605 PM CDT SAT SEP 20 2014
VFR ceilings will continue at all terminals through the remainder of
the evening. MVFR ceilings will return to KABI around daybreak
tomorrow and just after midnight tonight at the remaining terminals.
VCSH was maintained at the northern terminals and KSOA.
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 351 PM CDT Sat Sep 20 2014/
(Tonight and Sunday)
Rain chances will continue across West Central Texas for the next
24 hours. Models continue to indicate the best chances for rain
and greatest rainfall will be mainly across the western half of
our area. A loop of water vapor imagery indicates the center of
the upper high is located near El Paso. This location continues to
place West Central Texas on the eastern side of the upper
circulation center. Model forecast soundings show good
precipitable water values for the next 24 hours across much of
West Central Texas, with numbers mainly in the 1.5 to 2.0 inches
range. Thus, the potential for flash flooding from locally heavy
rainfall will continue through tomorrow afternoon. However,
widespread flash flooding does not look likely, given the
scattered nature of showers and thunderstorms. Models still
indicate West central Texas is on the fence between very good rain
chances to our west and southwest and much lower rain chances to
our east. Given model indications, continuing the best rain
chances for our western counties looks reasonable.
(Sunday night through Monday night)
Rain chances, although diminishing, will continue into Monday
night. Models this cycle are again indicating a weak front will
push into West Central Texas Sunday night. This boundary will
enhance rain chances for all of west central Texas on Monday, some
low-level forcing along and near the front.
(Tuesday through Saturday)
for the remainder of the long term, expect dry conditions with
unremarkable afternoon highs very close to seasonal normals.
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Abilene 69 86 67 85 66 / 30 30 10 20 10
San Angelo 69 86 66 86 67 / 40 40 20 20 10
Junction 70 86 67 86 67 / 30 20 10 20 10