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000
FXUS65 KVEF 102156
AFDVEF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAS VEGAS NV
255 PM PDT MON MAR 10 2014

.SYNOPSIS...A COLD FRONT WILL USHER IN GUSTY NORTH WINDS TONIGHT AND
TUESDAY ALONG WITH COOLER TEMPERATURES. A WEAK AREA OF LOW PRESSURE
LINGERING OVER THE AREA ON WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY COULD LEAD TO A
FEW SHOWERS OVER THE MOUNTAINS. TEMPERATURES WILL WARM BY WEEKS END
AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS BACK OVER THE REGION.
&&

.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT AND TUESDAY...THE BASE OF THE UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH MOVING ACROSS NORTHERN NEVADA THIS AFTERNOON WAS STIRRING UP
WINDS ACROSS THE REGION AS EXPECTED. THE ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT WAS
PUSHING THROUGH CENTRAL NEVADA AND NORTHERN INYO COUNTY AT 21Z AS
INDICATED BY THE NORTHWEST WIND SHIFT AT TONOPAH AND BISHOP. THE
FRONT AND ASSOCIATED NORTH WINDS WILL SWEEP THROUGH SOUTHERN NEVADA
BETWEEN 9 PM AND MIDNIGHT WITH GUSTS TO AROUND 35 MPH. THE LATEST
HIGH RES MODELS AND MOS GUIDANCE SUPPORT NORTH GUSTS OF 35 TO 45 MPH
ALONG THE COLORADO RIVER VALLEY TUESDAY AND THE WIND ADVISORY AND
RED FLAG WARNINGS WILL REMAIN IN EFFECT. SPEEDS OF 15 TO 25 MPH CAN
BE EXPECTED ELSEWHERE AND HIGHS TUESDAY WILL GENERALLY DROP 5-10
DEGREES ACROSS THE REGION.

.LONG TERM...TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY...
AFTER THE INITIAL TROUGH MOVES TO THE EAST TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND
SECONDARY PIECE OF ENERGY DIGS SOUTH AND EVENTUALLY FORMS A CLOSED
LOW OVER CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN NEVADA TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY
MORNING. ALL THE MODELS ARE IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THIS
SCENARIO AND I BASICALLY USED A BLEND OF ALL MODELS FOR THE
FORECAST. AS THE LOW SPINS OVER SOUTHERN NEVADA WEDNESDAY SOME
LIMITED MOISTURE IS EXPECTED TO BE PULLED NORTHWARD AND GET WRAPPED
UP IN THE LOW...ALTHOUGH THE MODELS HAVE BEEN SHOWING AN INCREASE IN
MOISTURE WITH EACH MODEL RUN. WITH THE INCREASE IN MOISTURE AND THE
COLD POOL ALOFT ITS POSSIBLE THAT SOME SHOWERS MAY DEVELOP OVER
PORTIONS OF THE AREA WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. MODELS ARE ALSO INDICATING
SOME INCREASED INSTABILITY OVER THE AREA SO INTRODUCED THUNDERSTORMS
INTO THE AREA. DID UP THE POPS AND POP COVERAGE OVER THE EASTERN AND
SOUTHERN AREAS OF THE CWA FOR WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT...BUT
STILL KEPT THEM AROUND 15-25 PERCENT. THE MODELS BEGIN TO DIVERGE
THURSDAY WITH REGARDS TO TIMING. THE ECMWF AND SREF KEEP THE LOW
BASICALLY OVER THE COLORADO RIVER AREA WHILE THE GFS STARTS PUSHING
THE LOW EAST INTO CENTRAL ARIZONA. IF THE ECMWF/SREF VERIFY THEN WE
COULD KEEP SOME SHOWER ACTIVITY GOING INTO THURSDAY WHILE SHOWERS
WOULD END LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT BASED ON THE GFS. FOR NOW DID LEAN
WITH THE SLOWER SOLUTIONS AS THESE UPPER LOWS TEND TO BE FINICKY AND
MAY HOLD ON A LITTLE LONGER BEFORE GETTING KICKED EAST. BY THURSDAY
NIGHT...WE SHOULD START TO SEE THE IMPACTS OF HIGH PRESSURE MOVING
INTO THE WEST COAST. THIS WILL BRING DRY CONDITIONS AND WARMER
TEMPERATURES BACK INTO THE REGION BY THE WEEKEND. TEMPERATURES
WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY WILL REMAIN CLOSE TO NORMAL...BUT LOOK TO
JUMP TO AROUND 5-8 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL BY NEXT WEEKEND.
&&

.AVIATION...FOR MCCARRAN...SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL PERSIST THIS EVENING
BEFORE A COLD FRONT BRINGS A NORTHWEST WIND SHIFT BETWEEN 10 PM AND
MIDNIGHT. NORTHWEST GUSTS OF 25-30 KNOTS WILL BE LIKELY. THE WIND
WILL TURN MORE DIRECTLY FROM THE NORTH AFTER 12Z TUESDAY AND PERSIST
THROUGH THE DAY. ANY CLOUD WILL REMAIN ABOVE 20KFT.

FOR THE REST OF SOUTHERN NEVADA...NORTHWEST ARIZONA...AND SOUTHEAST
CALIFORNIA...A COLD FRONT PUSHING THROUGH CENTRAL NEVADA LATE THIS
AFTERNOON WILL SWEEP ACROSS SOUTHERN NEVADA AND SURROUNDING AREAS
LATE THIS EVENING AND EARLY TUESDAY MORNING. WIND SPEEDS WILL BE
AROUND 15-25 KNOTS BEHIND THE FRONT WITH STRONG WINDS EXPECTED DOWN
THE COLORADO RIVER TUESDAY.
&&

.FIRE WEATHER...NORTHERLY WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP DOWN THE
COLORADO RIVER VALLEY TONIGHT BEHIND A COLD FRONT. THE WINDS WILL
INCREASE TUESDAY MORNING AND CONTINUE THROUGH THE DAY.  RELATIVE
HUMIDITY VALUES ARE FORECAST TO DIP BELOW 15 PERCENT BY LATE TUESDAY
MORNING. A RED FLAG WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR THE COLORADO RIVER
ZONES. GUSTY NORTH WINDS COULD LINGER INTO WEDNESDAY...LEADING TO
THE POSSIBILITY OF CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS AGAIN. &&

.VEF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NV...RED FLAG WARNING FROM 10 AM TO 9 PM PDT TUESDAY FOR NVZ466.
     WIND ADVISORY FROM 6 AM TO 6 PM PDT TUESDAY FOR NVZ021.
AZ...RED FLAG WARNING FROM 10 AM TO 9 PM MST TUESDAY FOR AZZ101.
     WIND ADVISORY FROM 6 AM TO 6 PM MST TUESDAY FOR AZZ002-036.
CA...RED FLAG WARNING FROM 10 AM TO 9 PM PDT TUESDAY FOR CAZ229.
     WIND ADVISORY FROM 6 AM TO 6 PM PDT TUESDAY FOR CAZ527.
&&

$$

ADAIR/GORELOW

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