Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Las Vegas, NV

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463
FXUS65 KVEF 210419 AAA
AFDVEF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Las Vegas NV
815 PM PST Fri Jan 20 2017

.SYNOPSIS...A potent storm system will impact the region tonight
with widespread rain...gusty winds...and significant mountain snow.
Locally heavy rain may cause flooding concerns across parts of
Northwest Arizona and the Colorado River Valley. Drier conditions
are expected Saturday before another powerful Pacific system brings
more rain and mountain snow to the region Sunday into Monday. Dry
and cool conditions last Tuesday through the end of next week.
&&

.UPDATE...Much of the widespread rainfall that moved through the
region earlier this evening has pushed off to the east and is mainly
affecting central and eastern Arizona. What is left for the
remainder of this evening and overnight are scattered showers that
will continue to develop. Not much rainfall is expected in the
valleys, but the higher elevations could continue to see some
additional snowfall. Will leave the current winter weather products
in place, although there may be a lull at times overnight. Winds
have also not materialized so far across western San Bernardino
County, but the hires models continue to indicate that winds will
increase overnight and with much of the rain over for that area,
will leave the advisory in place. Made a few changes to lower pops
and qpf amounts for the overnight period.

.AVIATION...For McCarran...No shower activity expected tonight with
CIGs 7-10k feet. Widespread mountain obscurations will continue
through the night. Gusty south winds to continue overnight as well.
Showers will continue in the Peach Springs and Mormon Mesa corridors
overnight. Another round of lower CIGS and rain expected on Sunday
and Monday.

For the rest of southern Nevada...northwest Arizona...and southeast
California...Storm system will wind down this evening in most
locations with improving conditions. Rain and mountain snow likely
across Mohave County tonight with mountain obscurations and low
ceilings. Low clouds and patchy fog will remain possible across
areas mainly north of I-15.
&&

PREV DISCUSSION
312 PM PST Fri Jan 20 2017

.SHORT TERM...through Monday.

Busy day with events unfolding about as expected. Radar detecting
highest rainfall rates with showers and embedded thunderstorms
moving through southern California currently. HRRR shifts this area
east through the remainder of eastern San Bernardino County late
this afternoon...then across the Colorado River Valley and southern
Mohave County this evening. Precipitation from this second event
will start tapering off tonight...some showers will linger in
eastern Lincoln, eastern Clark and Mohave Counties through Saturday
morning.

Attention then turns to system number 3. Precipitation from this
system will already be spreading into California Saturday
night...possibly as far east as the Spring Mtns by daybreak Sunday.
The only addition to our vast array of hazards was to go ahead and
issue another Flood Watch for northeast Clark, northern Mohave, and
Lincoln County based on the potential  of more localized higher QPF
amounts.

.LONG TERM...Tuesday through Friday.

Cool and drier conditions will settle in Tuesday through Friday as a
broad trough sits over the central Rockies. This will keep
temperatures below normal, but generally dry and sunny. Gusty north
winds are likely to make another visit to the Colorado River valley
Wednesday and Thursday.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...Significant rain and mountain snow
is possible through the weekend. Weather reports of flooding...high
winds...and accumulating snow is requested. Any additional weather
reports related to rainfall...road conditions...or low visibility is
also encouraged.
&&

$$

Update...Gorelow/Salmen
Short Term...Pierce
Long Term....Outler

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