Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Las Vegas, NV

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FXUS65 KVEF 051723
AFDVEF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAS VEGAS NV
1023 AM PDT SUN JUL 5 2015

.SYNOPSIS....MOIST AND UNSTABLE AIR WILL ALLOW FOR ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE AREA TODAY
AND AGAIN MONDAY MAINLY IN THE AFTERNOON. DRIER AIR WILL WORK INTO
THE AREA ON TUESDAY WHICH WILL DECREASE COVERAGE OF SHOWERS.
TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL THROUGH THE WEEK.
&&

.SHORT TERM [MESOSCALE ANALYSIS]...PRIMARY CONCERN THIS MORNING IS
A NEGATIVELY TILTED SHORT WAVE MOVING AROUND UPPER LOW OFF THE
COAST. THIS FEATURE IS CLEARLY EVIDENT IN WATER VAPOR IMAGERY.
TIMING IS VERY GOOD FOR THIS FEATURE AS IT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE
WESTERN PORTIONSOF OUR FORECAST AREA THIS AFTERNOON PROVIDING
ADDITIONAL LIFT FOR ANY THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT. MOST OF THE
WESTERN AND SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF OUR AREA ARE CLOUD FREE AND SHOULD
DESTABILIZE QUITE WELL. SPC MESOANALYSIS AND OBSERVATIONS INDICATING
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND MID- LEVEL INSTABILTY SHOULD BE ENOUGH TO
SUPPORT DEVELOPMENT PROVIDED IS CAN BUST THROUGH THE CIN. HIGHER
TERRAIN LOCATIONS ARE LIKELY TO GET STARTED FIRST. WITH THE STEERING
FLOW FROM THE SOUTH, WE WILL NEED TO KEEP AN EYE DOWN NEAR THE ESSEX
CALIFORNIA AREA. STORMS FROM THAT AREA TEND TO WORK NORTH IN THIS
FLOW REGIME AND OFTEN AFFECT THE LAS VEGAS VALLEY. ELSEWHERE, MOST
CONVECTION ALLOWING MODELS ARE SHOWING ISOLATED TO SCATTERED
ACTIVITY IN ALMOST ALL AREAS OF THE CWA THIS AFTERNOON. &&

.AVIATION...FOR MCCARRAN...ISOLATED SHRA/TSRA ARE POSSIBLE TODAY MAINLY
AFTER 20Z. IF THUNDERSTORMS MAKE IT INTO THE LAS VEGAS VALLEY, THEY
WILL MOVE IN FROM THE SOUTH. STORMS COULD RESULT IN LOWER CIGS OR
GUSTY AND ERRATIC WINDS. OUTSIDE THUNDERSTORM INFLUENCE, WINDS WILL
FOLLOW THE TYPICALLY DAILY PATTERN TURNING SOUTH-SOUTHEAST LATE
AFTERNOON AND BACK TO SOUTHWEST IN THE EVENING.

FOR THE REST OF SOUTHERN NEVADA...NORTHWEST ARIZONA...AND SOUTHEAST
CALIFORNIA...SHRA/TSRA ARE LIKELY TO DEVELOP AFTER 18Z MAINLY
ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF INYO, ESMERALDA, LINCOLN, CENTRAL NYE,
AS WELL AS NORTHERN AND EASTERN MOHAVE COUNTIES AND IN THE SPRING
MTS AND SHEEP RANGE. GUSTY AND ERRATIC WINDS AND VSBY/CIGS REDUCED
TO MVFR OR LOWER ALONG WITH POSSIBLE MOUNTAIN OBSCURATIONS.
&&

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...SPOTTERS ARE ENCOURAGED TO REPORT
ANY SIGNIFICANT WEATHER CONDITIONS ACCORDING TO STANDARD OPERATING
PROCEDURES.
&&

$$

LERICOS

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