Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Las Vegas, NV

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FXUS65 KVEF 240234 AAA

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Las Vegas NV
734 PM PDT MON MAY 23 2016

.SYNOPSIS....Below normal temperatures expected through the week.
Dry and occasionally breezy conditions expected in most areas. A weak
weather systems will bring a small chance for showers to the Sierra
and central Nevada over the next several days.

.UPDATE...Quick update to add thunderstorms to northern Inyo and
Esmeralda county through the evening hours. Satellite/radar and
lightning data show isolated thunderstorms over the White Mountains
of Inyo county and just across the county line into Mineral and Mono
counties. Will continue to monitor for possible further updates.

.AVIATION...For McCarran...Gusts will subside overnight, but winds
will remain from a general southwest direction. Mostly clear skies
with occasional high clouds are expected through the next 24 hours.
On Wednesday, isolated afternoon showers (and possible thunderstorms)
are expected in the area. These will be confined to the higher
terrain to the west and north of the terminal and are not likely to
affect traffic. No weather concerns beyond Wednesday.

For the rest of southern Nevada...northwest Arizona...and southeast
California...Southwest winds will continue to be 10-20 kts with
gusts to 30 kts (lighter in the southern Great Basin and Owens
Valley) tonight and Tuesday as a weather system approaches the area.
Aside from showers/isolated thunderstorms in the Bishop terminal
area, no major aviation concerns are expected in this period. On
Wednesday, afternoon isolated showers are expected mainly north of a
line from KGCN to KDAG as an upper level disturbance moves across
the area.


.SHORT TERM...Tonight through Wednesday
The overall long wave weather pattern remains similar through the
forecast period. It is characterized by a broad trough over the
west coast and associates ridge over the eastern Pacific. The storm
track thus remains from north to south along West Coast of the U.S.
The most significant short wave energy during this period will drop
south overnight tonight. This will increase wind speeds across much
of the area on Tuesday and bring showers to the Sierra and some
parts of central Nevada on Tuesday afternoon. The rest of the area
is likely to stay dry. On Wednesday, the upper level wave
strengthens into an upper low and transits the area from west to
east. Both the GFS and ECMWF are in agreement in this slight
strengthening. The uncertainty arises with respect to
precipitation. This wave is likely to result in some mountain
showers/thunderstorms. However, lower elevation showers are not too
likely. Nonetheless, we cannot rule out a light showers on Wednesday
at lower elevations. Will therefore leave in a chance of
precipitation at most lower elevations locations.

.LONG TERM...Thursday through Monday

The afore mentioned low pressure system will be exiting to our east
Thursday morning. However, remnant moisture and afternoon
destabilization will allow for the development of some showers and
possibly a few thunderstorms across the Sierra Nevada and southern
Great Basin mountains Thursday afternoon and early evening. Another
low pressure system will drop southward through Washington to Oregon
Thursday night through Friday night. The low will then become cut
off and just spin over eastern Oregon or southern Idaho through
Sunday. This will increase the pressure gradient allowing surface
winds to strengthen across our area. For now, just expect breezy to
locally windy south-southwest winds each afternoon Friday through
Monday. Models differ on the amount of moisture this low will
provide to our northern forecast area. Currently, moisture seems
rather limited, but will continue to carry a slight chance of
showers (perhaps an isolated thunderstorm) across the Sierra Nevada
and southern Great Basin each afternoon and early evening. It is
quite possible these areas could be dry Sunday and Monday if the 00Z
ECMWF pans out.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...Spotters are encouraged to report
any significant weather according to standard operating procedures.



Previous Discussion...

Short Term: Lericos
Long Term: Lericos/Paddock

Spotter activation is not expected at this time.

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