Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Las Vegas, NV

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000
FXUS65 KVEF 250950
AFDVEF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAS VEGAS NV
250 AM PDT MON MAY 25 2015

.SYNOPSIS...MOST AREAS WILL SEE A QUIETER WEATHER PATTERN THROUGH
THE UPCOMING WEEK. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE MOSTLY LIMITED
TO THE SIERRA AND THE SOUTHERN GREAT BASIN MOUNTAINS WITH DRY
CONDITIONS EXPECTED ELSEWHERE. MORE SEASONABLE CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED THIS WEEK AS TEMPERATURES RISE TO NEAR NORMAL BY WEDNESDAY
THEN TRANSITION TO ABOVE NORMAL LATER IN THE WEEK.
&&

.SHORT TERM...THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING.

SHOWER AND CLOUD COVER TRENDS ARE DOWN THIS MORNING. AT 2 AM, RADAR
SHOWED ISOLATED SHOWERS FROM NEAR PAHRUMP TO NEAR LAUGHLIN AND NORTH
OF INTERSTATE 40 IN MOHAVE COUNTY. MODELS HAVE THESE SHOWERS MOVING
OUT OF THE AREA BY 9 AM. CLOUDS ARE COVERING MUCH OF INYO, SOUTHERN
CLARK AND MOHAVE COUNTIES EARLY THIS MORNING WITH CLOUDS EXPECTED TO
DIMINISH LATER IN THE MORNING AND THEN RE-DEVELOPING OVER THE
MOUNTAINS THIS AFTERNOON.

A QUIETER WEATHER PATTERN WILL GREET THE FIRST HALF OF THE WEEK AS
BROAD TROUGHING SETS UP OVER THE WEST. RISING HEIGHTS AND MORE
SUNSHINE WILL ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO PUSH CLOSER TO NORMAL TODAY
THROUGH WEDNESDAY. SHOWER CHANCES WILL MAINLY BE LIMITED TO THE
SIERRA AND THE SOUTHERN GREAT BASIN MOUNTAINS EACH AFTERNOON THROUGH
THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK. LOCALLY BREEZY CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST EACH
AFTERNOON BUT ARE NOT EXPECTED TO BE WIDESPREAD OR OF ANY
SIGNIFICANCE.

.LONG TERM...THURSDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH MONDAY MORNING.

NORTHWEST FLOW WILL REIGN OVER THE REGION THURSDAY AFTERNOON...AS A
BROAD MID-UPPER LEVEL TROUGH MOVES OFF TO THE EAST OF THE AREA.
SUFFICIENT UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT AND MOISTURE...COMBINED WITH MARGINAL
INSTABILITY MAINLY IN THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF INYO AND EASTERN LINCOLN
COUNTIES WILL YIELD A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS THURSDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING.

THE STORY OF THE LONG TERM SWITCHES TO RISING TEMPERATURES ON
FRIDAY...AS A SHORTWAVE RIDGE BEGINS TO MOVE OVER THE AREA. OPTED TO
MOVE AWAY FROM CONS GUIDANCE IN TONIGHTS HIGH TEMPERATURE GRIDS...AS
THERE IS REASON TO BELIEVE THAT THERE IS A COOL BIAS GIVEN THE BELOW
AVERAGE TEMPERATURES AS OF LATE. ON THE OTHER HAND...MEX AND ECE
GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO HINT AT TEMPERATURES EXCEEDING THE CENTURY
MARK ACROSS MOST DESERT LOCALES SATURDAY AND SUNDAY...INCLUDING LAS
VEGAS. LOWER DESERT AND VALLEY LOCATIONS...SUCH AS DEATH
VALLEY...COULD VERY WELL APPROACH AND ECLIPSE THE 110 DEGREE MARK
THIS WEEKEND. AT THIS TIME...IT APPEARS THAT SUNDAY WILL BE THE
WARMEST DAY OF 2015 THUS FAR...AS AN INCREASE IN
SOUTHERLY/SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW AHEAD OF THE NEXT UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
WILL PROMOTE MIXING ACROSS THE AREA AND BUMP TEMPERATURES UP A FEW
DEGREES SUNDAY AFTERNOON.

DESPITE THE CONSISTENT SIGNALS IN GUIDANCE...THERE CONTINUES TO BE
NOTABLE DIFFERENCES IN THE AMPLIFICATION OF THE AFOREMENTIONED
SHORTWAVE RIDGE THAT IS SLATED TO MOVE OVER THE REGION...DUE MAINLY
TO A TROUGH MOVING OVER SOUTHERN BRITISH COLUMBIA/ALBERTA DURING THE
WEEKEND. AT THIS TIME...THE DIFFERENCES BETWEEN THE GFS AND ECMWF
HIGH TEMPERATURE SOLUTIONS ARE ONLY A FEW DEGREES EACH DAY THIS
WEEKEND...INCREASING CONFIDENCE IN HIGH TEMPERATURES RUNNING 7-10
DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL THIS WEEKEND...BARRING ANY MAJOR CHANGES THIS
WEEK. &&
.AVIATION...FOR MCCARRAN...SOUTHWEST WINDS UP TO 8KTS THROUGH THE
MORNING HOURS THEN BECOMING GUSTY OUT OF THE SOUTHWEST TO AROUND
20KTS THIS AFTERNOON. CLOUD COVER WILL DIMINISH AFTER 10Z. SHOWER
AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES WILL PRIMARILY BE NORTH OF VEGAS WITH
SCATTERED SHOWERS POSSIBLE OVER THE CLARK COUNTY MOUNTAINS. SHOWERS
ARE NOT EXPECTED AT THE TERMINAL TODAY.

FOR THE REST OF SOUTHERN NEVADA...NORTHWEST ARIZONA...AND SOUTHEAST
CALIFORNIA...ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS TO CONTINUE OVER THE NEXT
SEVERAL HOURS...MAINLY ACROSS PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN CLARK AND MOHAVE
COUNTIES. THUNDERSTORM CHANCES WILL REMAIN IN THE FORECAST TODAY BUT
MAINLY ISOLATED AND LIMITED TO THE SIERRA AND SOUTHERN GREAT BASIN
MOUNTAINS.
&&

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...SPOTTERS ARE ENCOURAGED TO REPORT
ANY SIGNIFICANT WEATHER CONDITIONS ACCORDING TO STANDARD OPERATING
PROCEDURES. &&

$$

SALMEN/PULLIN

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