Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Las Vegas, NV

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FXUS65 KVEF 021821 CCA
AFDVEF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAS VEGAS NV
1120 AM PDT WED SEP 2 2015

.SYNOPSIS...A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE IN THE NORTHWESTERN PART OF THE
COUNTRY WILL BRING A DRY SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW TO THE AREA THROUGH THE
WEEK. TEMPERATURES WILL BE NEAR NORMAL THROUGH MIDWEEK BEFORE
FALLING BELOW NORMAL FOR THE LATTER HALF OF THE WORKWEEK AS THE
TROUGH DEEPENS. MOHAVE COUNTY MAY SEE OCCASIONAL CHANCES FOR SHOWERS
OR THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK...BUT OTHERWISE DRY
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED.
&&

.UPDATE...CURRENT FORECAST IN GOOD SHAPE...NO MAJOR UPDATES PLANNED.
RED FLAG WARNING NOW IN EFFECT ACROSS ESMERALDA AND NYE COUNTIES.
BASED ON LATEST GUIDANCE...WINDY AND DRY CONDITIONS WILL LIKELY
PERSIST THROUGH FRIDAY. WARNING WILL BE EXTENDED TO REFLECT THIS.
&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...
250 AM PDT WED SEP 2 2015

.SHORT TERM...THROUGH FRIDAY.

DRY SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW WILL DOMINATE THE WEATHER CONDITIONS OVER THE
NEXT FEW DAYS. A WEAK DISTURBANCE OFF THE SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA COAST
WILL DIRECT SOME MID AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUD COVER OUR DIRECTION
THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT BUT CLOUD COVER IS NOT EXPECTED TO BE OVERLY
THICK. MEANWHILE...ACROSS EASTERN MOHAVE COUNTY...SOME LIMITED
MOISTURE AGAIN WILL PRESENT THE POTENTIAL FOR ISOLATED AFTERNOON
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS BUT COVERAGE WILL BE VERY LIMITED.

BY THURSDAY...STRONGER TROUGHING WILL BEGIN TO EDGE INTO THE PACIFIC
NORTHWESTERN STATES WITH A BROAD CYCLONIC FLOW PRESENT ACROSS MUCH
OF THE WEST COAST. THIS WILL MAINTAIN A DRY SOUTHWEST FLOW FOR OUR
AREA WITH INCREASINGLY STRONG WINDS ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE SOUTHERN
GREAT BASIN WHERE WIND GUSTS MAY REACH 40 MPH THURSDAY AFTERNOON.
PESKY MONSOONAL MOISTURE WILL REMAIN ACROSS FAR EASTERN MOHAVE
COUNTY WITH ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS AGAIN POSSIBLE.

ON FRIDAY...TROUGH WILL CONTINUE TO DEVELOP SOUTHWARD WITH A SMALL
VORT LOBE POSSIBLY PINCHING OFF ACROSS FAR NORTHERN CALIFORNIA. THIS
TROUGHING WILL RESULT IN HEIGHTS FALLING QUITE A BIT ON FRIDAY AND
TEMPERATURES TUMBLING DOWNWARD. HIGH TEMPERATURES ON FRIDAY WILL
AVERAGE 4 TO 8 DEGREES BELOW SEASONAL NORMALS. IVE BUMPED
TEMPERATURES DOWN A COUPLE DEGREES BOTH THURSDAY AND FRIDAY TO
ACCOUNT FOR THE LIKELY TO WARM BIAS CORRECTED GUIDANCE WHICH MAY NOT
HAVE THE BEST HANDLE ON THE INCOMING COOLER WEATHER PATTERN.

.LONG TERM...SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

THE LONG TERM PERIOD BEGINS WITH GENERALLY GOOD AGREEMENT AMONG
OPERATION MODEL GUIDANCE...AS A VIGOROUS UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL BE IN
THE PROCESS OF TRAVERSING ACROSS THE GREAT BASIN AND MOJAVE DESERT
SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY. THIS WILL YIELD BREEZY/GUSTY CONDITIONS
ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE AREA...WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE OF A SHOWER OR
THUNDERSTORM ACROSS FAR EASTERN MOHAVE COUNTY SATURDAY PRIOR TO
MOISTURE GETTING SCOURED OUT BY DRIER WESTERLY FLOW. OTHERWISE...DRY
AND MOSTLY SUNNY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED.

LIKE 12Z MODEL GUIDANCE...00Z SOLUTIONS DIVERGE AFTER
SUNDAY...THEREFORE OVERALL FORECAST CONFIDENCE REMAINS LOW THROUGH
THE END OF THE PERIOD. NEITHER OPERATIONAL MODEL OR THEIR ASSOCIATED
ENSEMBLE MEMBERS DEVIATED MUCH FROM THEIR PREVIOUS SOLUTIONS THIS
EVENING...GIVING LITTLE TO WORK WITH IN RESOLVING POTENTIAL FEATURES
AND RESULTANT WEATHER THROUGH MID-NEXT WEEK. BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF
DO SHOW SIMILARITIES IN BRINGING SOME MOISTURE BACK INTO AT LEAST
MOHAVE COUNTY EARLY IN THE WEEK...THOUGH LARGE DISCREPANCIES IN THE
HANDLING OF A POTENTIAL SHORTWAVE WILL KEEP THE OVERALL SYNOPTIC
PATTERN AND ANY RESULTANT WEATHER IN QUESTION AT THIS TIME. THIS
TIME PERIOD WILL BE MONITORED CLOSELY THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK
FOR ANY RESOLUTION IN MODEL GUIDANCE.

&&

.AVIATION...FOR MCCARRAN...GENERALLY SOUTHERLY WINDS EXPECTED TODAY
UNDER PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES WITH SOME PASSING CIRRUS CLOUD COVER.
WINDS MAY TAKE ON A SOUTHEAST DIRECTION BETWEEN 15-18Z BEFORE
TRANSITIONING TO A MORE DUE SOUTH BY MID-AFTERNOON. CONFIDENCE IN
SOUTH VERSUS SOUTHEAST WINDS AFTER 21Z IS MODERATE. GUSTS IN THE 20-
25 KT RANGE EXPECTED IN THE AFTERNOON WILL BE DECREASING AFTER
SUNSET.

FOR THE REST OF SOUTHERN NEVADA...NORTHWEST ARIZONA...AND SOUTHEAST
CALIFORNIA...GENERALLY SOUTHERLY WINDS EXPECTED TODAY IN THE 10-15KT
RANGE WITH GUSTS TO 25 KTS. STRONGER WINDS POSSIBLE ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN GREAT BASIN WHERE GUSTS MAY REACH 35 KTS. ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS AGAIN POSSIBLE ACROSS EASTERN MOHAVE COUNTY.
ELSEWHERE...AREAS OF SCT HIGH CIRRUS CLOUDS ANTICIPATED BUT NO
SIGNIFICANT WEATHER.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS  EXPECTED ACROSS
NYE AND ESMERALDA COUNTIES THIS AFTERNOON AND AGAIN THURSDAY DUE TO
THE COLLOCATION OF DRY FUELS...LOW MINIMUM RELATIVE HUMIDITY
VALUES...AND WINDS OF 20-25 MPH WITH GUSTS OF 35 TO 40 MPH.  A RED
FLAG WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR BOTH DAYS AND MAY NEED TO BE
CONSIDERED FRIDAY AS WELL.  CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER MAY DEVELOP ACROSS
PARTS OF INYO COUNTY BUT THE DURATION LOOKS BRIEF TODAY...THOUGH
THURSDAY THE WINDOW OF OPPORTUNITY LOOKS A BIT LONGER.  GUSTY
CONDITIONS ALSO EXPECTED IN THE SPRING AND SHEEP RANGE BUT MINIMUM
RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES LOOK TO STAY ABOVE 15 PERCENT...BUT BEARS
WATCHING THURSDAY AND FRIDAY AS DRIER AIR FILTERS IN. &&

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...SPOTTERS ARE ENCOURAGED TO REPORT
ANY SIGNIFICANT WEATHER CONDITIONS ACCORDING TO STANDARD OPERATING
PROCEDURES.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM/AVIATION/FIRE WEATHER...OUTLER
LONG TERM...PULLIN
UPDATE...STEELE

FOR MORE FORECAST INFORMATION...SEE US ON OUR WEBPAGE:

HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/LASVEGAS OR FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK AND TWITTER



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