Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Las Vegas, NV

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075
FXUS65 KVEF 132155
AFDVEF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAS VEGAS NV
155 PM PST SAT FEB 13 2016

.SYNOPSIS...WARM AND DRY WEATHER WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF
NEXT WEEK. BREEZY NORTH WINDS WILL OCCUR ACROSS MOST OF THE AREA
TOMORROW AND MONDAY, ESPECIALLY IN THE LOWER COLORADO RIVER VALLEY.
A PACIFIC STORM SYSTEM WILL MOVE THROUGH THE REGION LATE WEDNESDAY
AND THURSDAY, BRINGING INCREASED CHANCES OF PRECIPITATION TO
PORTIONS OF THE AREA. ONLY SLIGHTLY COOLER TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED
AFTER THE SYSTEM MOVES THROUGH.
&&

.SHORT TERM...THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT.

WV IMAGERY VALID AT 21Z INDICATES VORT MAX RACING EASTWARD THROUGH
MONTANA WITH AN UPSTREAM VORT MAX APPROACHING FAR SOUTHWEST BRITISH
COLUMBIA. COMBINED, THESE TWO SHORTWAVE TROUGHS HAVE EFFECTIVELY
WEAKENED THE AMPLIFIED RIDGE ANCHORED ACROSS THE WEST FOR THE PAST
SEVERAL DAYS. THE SOUTHERN STREAM PORTION OF THE MT VORT MAX
STRETCHES SOUTHWESTWARD TO SOUTHWEST CALIFORNIA, BUT THE AMPLIFIED
RIDGE HAS WEAKENED THIS PORTION OF THE SYSTEM SUBSTANTIALLY, AS
EXPECTED. SCT-BKN HIGH CLOUDS ARE ABOUT ALL THIS REGION WILL SEE
FROM THIS SYSTEM AS IT PASSES THROUGH THE AREA TONIGHT. NORTH-
NORTHWEST UPPER- AND MIDLEVEL FLOW WILL TAKE OVER TOMORROW, AND AS
SURFACE RIDGING BUILDS INTO THE GREAT BASIN, NORTH WINDS WILL BEGIN
TO INCREASE ACROSS THE AREA, PARTICULARLY THE LOWER COLORADO RIVER
VALLEY. GUIDANCE HAS COME IN JUST A TAD WEAKER WITH SURFACE WINDS ON
SUNDAY AND MONDAY ACROSS THE AREA, SO HELD OFF ON ISSUING A LAKE
WIND ADVISORY AT THIS TIME. STILL EXPECT TO SEE SOME ROUGH
CONDITIONS FOR BOATERS ON AREA LAKES TOMORROW AND MONDAY, AND AN
ADVISORY MAY STILL BE NECESSARY IF SUBSEQUENT MODEL RUNS COME IN
MORE AGGRESSIVELY.

SHORT-RANGE MODELS CONTINUE TO DISAGREE SOMEWHAT WITH MAX TEMPS
TOMORROW, THOUGH MOST GUIDANCE AT LEAST SUGGESTS SLIGHT COOLING.
GENERALLY, TRENDED TEMPS ABOUT 1-4 DEGREES COOLER THAN TODAY.
NEVERTHELESS, CONFIDENCE IS SOMEWHAT LOWER IN FORECAST TEMPS
TOMORROW AS MIXING ACTS TO COUNTER WEAK COLD AIR ADVECTION. GUIDANCE
HAS CONSISTENTLY OVERFORECAST LOW TEMPS ACROSS THE AREA THE PAST
COUPLE OF WEEKS, SO CONTINUED TO UNDERCUT THESE VALUES THROUGHOUT
THE SHORT TERM.

RIDGE REBUILDS EARLY THIS WEEK WITH CONTINUED WARM AND DRY WEATHER
ACROSS THE AREA. TEMPS COULD GET QUITE WARM TUESDAY, BASED ON LATEST
MOS GUIDANCE. OVERALL, EXPECT MAX TEMPS ABOUT 10-15 DEGREES ABOVE
AVERAGE AND MIN TEMPS ABOUT 5-10 DEGREES ABOVE AVERAGE THROUGH
TUESDAY NIGHT. WINDS SHOULD BE ON THE DOWNWARD TREND BEGINNING
MONDAY NIGHT, SO LOWS MAY BE A TOUCH LOWER MONDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT
COMPARED TO SUNDAY NIGHT`S VALUES, ESPECIALLY IN VALLEY LOCATIONS.

.LONG TERM...WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY.

A TROUGH WILL APPROACH THE CALIFORNIA COAST WEDNESDAY, PROVIDING
INCREASED SOUTHWEST FLOW ACROSS THE REGION. GIVEN THE DEEPER MIXING
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON, BELIEVE WEDNESDAY WILL LIKELY BE THE WARMEST
DAY FOR MOST LOCATIONS. SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL BE GUSTY AND COULD BE
FAIRLY STRONG ACROSS THE SIERRA NEVADA FROM LATE WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON
THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING. WILL KEEP AN EYE ON THE FORECAST STRENGTH
AND THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME DOWNSLOPING INTO OWENS VALLEY. THERE IS
STILL SOME MODEL DISAGREEMENT WITH THE TROUGH AS IT MOVES INLAND.
THE GFS REMAINS WEAKER WITH THE TROUGH THAN THE ECMWF, WHICH HAS
IMPLICATIONS ON THE TIMING AS WELL AS COVERAGE OF PRECIPITATION. THE
ECMWF IS A LITTLE SLOWER AND A LITTLE MORE GENEROUS WITH THE PRECIP
THAN THE GFS, YET BOTH MODELS AGREE THE PRECIP SHOULD BE QUICKLY
ENDING IF NOT ALREADY DRY BY THURSDAY NIGHT. EVEN WITH THE TIMING
AND PRECIP DIFFERENCES, THE OVERALL PICTURE STILL INDICATES THAT THE
GREATEST PRECIP CHANCES SHOULD BE CONFINED TO AREAS NORTH AND WEST
OF LAS VEGAS WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY. WITH THE TROUGH
MOVING THROUGH RATHER FAST AND NOT BEING TOO DEEP, EXPECT
TEMPERATURES TO DROP ONLY A FEW DEGREES THURSDAY AND PERHAPS FRIDAY,
YET REMAINING ABOVE NORMAL.
&&

.AVIATION...FOR MCCARRAN...LIGHT WINDS DRIVEN BY DIURNAL PROCESSES
THROUGH TONIGHT THEN BREEZIER NORTH OR NORTHEAST WINDS ARE FORECAST
SUNDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH MONDAY.

FOR THE REST OF SOUTHERN NEVADA...NORTHWEST ARIZONA...AND SOUTHEAST
CALIFORNIA...KIFP WILL CONTINUE TO SEE SOMEWHAT STRONGER NORTHERLY
WINDS THROUGH THE AFTERNOON WITH SPEEDS RANGING FROM 15-25 MPH
DECREASING OVERNIGHT. ELSEWHERE...DIURNALLY DRIVEN WINDS WILL
CONTINUE AT THE REMAINING TERMINALS EXCEPT KBIH WHERE NORTH WINDS 10-
20 KTS WILL CONTINUE. BREEZIER NORTH OR NORTHEAST WINDS ARE EXPECTED
ACROSS THE AREA ON SUNDAY WITH WINDY CONDITIONS AT KIFP AND KEED
THAT WILL LAST THROUGH MONDAY.
&&

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED.
PLEASE REPORT ANY SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ACCORDING TO STANDARD OPERATING
PROCEDURES.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...SHAFER
LONG TERM....PADDOCK
AVIATION.....SALMEN

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