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000
FXUS65 KVEF 291747
AFDVEF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAS VEGAS NV
947 AM PST THU JAN 29 2015

.SYNOPSIS...A STORM SYSTEM WILL BRING CLOUDY SKIES THROUGH FRIDAY.
RAIN CHANCES WILL INCREASE TONIGHT AND CONTINUE THROUGH FRIDAY
NIGHT...THEN END FROM NORTH TO SOUTH ON SATURDAY AS THE STORM SLOWLY
MOVES AWAY TO THE SOUTHEAST. DRY WEATHER IS LIKELY FOR THE FIRST FEW
DAYS OF FEBRUARY WITH ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES.
&&

.UPDATE...PLENTY OF MID AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS TODAY BUT LOTS OF DRY
AIR UNDERNEATH...SO REDUCED PRECIP CHANCES FOR THE REST OF THE DAY.
STILL EXPECTING CONDITIONS TO DETERIORATE OVERNIGHT AND FRIDAY
MORNING ESPECIALLY OVER THE SOUTHEAST ZONES.
&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...
246 AM PST THU JAN 29 2015

.SHORT TERM...THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT...THE NEXT SYSTEM TO IMPACT THE
AREA WAS AN OPEN WAVE APPROACHING THE CALIFORNIA COAST EARLY THIS
MORNING WITH ABUNDANT HIGH CLOUDS SPREADING OUT AHEAD OF IT INTO OUR
FORECAST AREA. AS THE TROUGH MOVES INLAND...MOISTURE WILL INCREASE
SOME TODAY WITH A CHANCE OF SHOWERS DEVELOPING OVER THE MOUNTAINS
GENERALLY NORTH OF LAS VEGAS. THE MOJAVE DESERT SHOULD REMAIN DRY.
THE TROUGH WILL DEEPEN AS IT MOVES INLAND TONIGHT...BECOMING A
CLOSED LOW CENTERED SOUTH OF LAS VEGAS FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT. THIS
WILL ALLOW IT TO WRAP PLENTY OF MOISTURE UP INTO IT WITH
PRECIPITATION SPREADING MAINLY ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST HALF OF THE
FORECAST AREA TONIGHT AND ACROSS THE ENTIRE FORECAST AREA FRIDAY.
THE MODELS...ESPECIALLY THE GFS AND NAM12...CONTINUE TO TARGET
MOHAVE...CLARK AND SAN BERNARDINO COUNTIES WITH THE HEAVIEST
PRECIPITATION. BASED ON THOSE MODELS THERE IS POTENTIAL FOR 1 TO 2
INCHES OF LIQUID EQUIVALENT OVER THE HUALAPAI AND SPRING MOUNTAINS
AS WELL AS THE MOJAVE PRESERVE. THIS IS A FAIRLY WARM SYSTEM FOR
JANUARY AND WHILE THERE IS POTENTIAL FOR 8 INCHES OR MORE OF SNOW AT
THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF THE SPRING MOUNTAINS...AT THIS TIME IT
LOOKS LIKE THE TOWN OF MT CHARLESTON MAY ONLY GET AN INCH OR TWO.
FOR THE HUALAPAI MOUNTAINS PRECIPITATION MAY REMAIN IN THE FORM OF
RAIN FOR THIS EVENT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BEGIN TO NOSE INTO NORTHERN
PORTIONS OF CALIFORNIA AND NEVADA SATURDAY PUSHING THE LOW SOUTH TO
THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA WITH PRECIPITATION CHANCES DECREASING FROM
NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST. ISOLATED SHOWERS MAY LINGER OVER SOUTHEAST
MOHAVE COUNTY SATURDAY EVENING BUT THAT SHOULD COME TO AN END
OVERNIGHT SATURDAY NIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO BUILD IN.

.LONG TERM...SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDING OVER THE WESTERN U.S. WILL BE THE MAIN STORY INTO NEXT
WEEK. MAINLY DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED HOWEVER A FEW PERIODS OF HIGH
CLOUDS AND LOCALLY BREEZY WINDS WILL BE POSSIBLE AS DISTURBANCES
RIDE UP AND OVER THE RIDGE. ALL IN ALL A QUIET START TO THE WEEK
WITH TEMPERATURES RUNNING A FEW DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL AND SLOWLY
WARMING EACH DAY.

.AVIATION...FOR MCCARRAN...NO OPERATIONALLY SIGNIFICANT WEATHER IS
EXPECTED THROUGH TODAY. ONCE THE DRAINAGE WINDS DIMINISH THIS
MORNING...NORTH/NORTHEAST WINDS ARE EXPECTED MUCH OF TODAY BUT
SHOULD REMAIN UNDER 8 KTS. CLOUDS WILL LOWER TONIGHT AND
FRIDAY...WITH RAIN LIKELY AT THE TERMINAL ON FRIDAY ALONG WITH LOW
CEILINGS AND MOUNTAIN OBSCURATIONS IN MOST APPROACH CORRIDORS. RAIN
CHANCES WILL END ON SATURDAY WITH SKIES CLEARING SATURDAY
NIGHT...BUT AREAS OF FOG CANNOT BE RULED OUT SUNDAY MORNING.

FOR THE REST OF SOUTHERN NEVADA...NORTHWEST ARIZONA...AND SOUTHEAST
CALIFORNIA...NO OPERATIONALLY SIGNIFICANT WEATHER IS EXPECTED ACROSS
THE MOJAVE DESERT TODAY. THERE MAY BE SOME LIGHT SHOWERS DEVELOPING
OVER THE MOUNTAINS GENERALLY NORTH OF LAS VEGAS. CLOUDS WILL LOWER
AND THICKEN BEGINNING TONIGHT...WITH RAIN CHANCES INCREASING OVER
MOHAVE COUNTY TONIGHT AND SPREADING ACROSS THE ENTIRE AREA ON
FRIDAY. LOW CEILINGS...POOR VISIBILITY...AND MOUNTAIN OBSCURATIONS
WILL ALL BE ISSUES ON FRIDAY. RAIN CHANCES WILL END FROM NORTH TO
SOUTH SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT. FOG WILL BE POSSIBLE SUNDAY
MORNING IN AREAS WHICH RECEIVE SIGNIFICANT RAIN ON FRIDAY.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED
AT THIS TIME BUT SPOTTERS ARE ENCOURAGED TO REPORT ANY SIGNIFICANT
RAIN OR SNOW THAT IS OBSERVED.
&&

$$

MORGAN/HARRISON/WOLCOTT

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