Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Jackson, MS
Issued by NWS Jackson, MS
Versions:
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
19
20
21
22
23
24
25
26
27
28
29
30
31
32
33
34
35
36
37
38
39
40
41
42
43
44
45
46
47
48
49
50
242 FXUS64 KJAN 121116 AFDJAN Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Jackson MS 616 AM CDT Sun May 12 2024 ...New AVIATION... .DISCUSSION... Issued at 352 AM CDT Sun May 12 2024 Today through Monday night: Multiple rounds of storms; some severe and with locally heavy rain will affect our CWA through the period. Early morning satellite imagery/RAP analysis showed our CWA downstream of a closed low spinning just east of the Four Corners region. Disturbances noted within the southern branch of the jet stream rounding the based of the closed low with help enhance convection as deep moisture increases back across our region. Local radars already showed some light showers moving east along the Highway 84 corridor as well as across southern Arkansas that will spread east along our Highway 82 corridor. This activity is expected to taper off later this morning. Later this afternoon daytime heating will combine with a more potent shortwave to develop convection just to our west. Some of this activity may spread into our southwest during the evening hours with the possibility of isolated severe storms capable of damaging wind gusts and hail to quarter size. In addition, a brief tornado or two cannot be ruled out and locally heavy rainfall will occur with the strongest storms. Although the severe threat will likely wain with the loss of daytime heating, rain chances will continue through the night as the closed low shifts east to the southern Plains. The closed low will continue to Monday and Monday night becoming centered over the mid Mississippi river valley by Tuesday morning. This will send a cold front into our CWA Monday night. Showers and thunderstorms will locally heavy rain will continue to develop along and ahead of the cold front and move across our region through Monday night. Severe storms will be possible again Monday especially over the southwest portions of our CWA. Damaging wind gusts and hail to quarter size will be the main threats but a few tornadoes will also be possible. Storm totals of two to four inches with the highest amounts expected across the Highway 84 corridor, will be possible Today through Tuesday morning. Depending on how much rainfall is recorded today and tonight across our south, a Flash Flood Watch may be needed for our southern zones Monday. /22/ Tuesday through Saturday night...The main upper trough axis will move across the area on Tuesday and this may kick of some scattered showers or isolated storms early, but will end from west to east during the afternoon hours. High pressure and dry conditions return briefly on Wednesday into Thursday but yet another strong short wave is on the horizon. As high pressure shifts east the flow will once again turn around with increasing moisture Wednesday night into Thursday. A series of short waves will move across the area on Thursday, with a strong short wave/cold front moving across the area Thursday night into Friday. More heavy rainfall looks like the primary risk during this period, but strong to severe storms will once again be possible. The short wave/cold front will move east of the area on Friday along with the bulk of the storms. Isolated to scattered diurnal storms will continue to be possible on Saturday./15/ && .AVIATION... (12Z TAFS) Issued at 614 AM CDT Sun May 12 2024 All TAF sites are VFR this morning and this will continue through the day into the evening hours. Expect MVFR/IFR conditions after 05-06Z as showers and thunderstorms begin to move into the area. The winds will be out of the southeast at 7-10kts through much of the period./15/ && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Jackson 78 64 80 65 / 20 80 90 60 Meridian 81 62 77 65 / 20 70 100 70 Vicksburg 78 64 83 66 / 40 90 70 50 Hattiesburg 81 65 82 68 / 20 70 100 70 Natchez 77 65 84 65 / 50 80 70 50 Greenville 81 65 78 68 / 20 90 80 50 Greenwood 81 64 77 66 / 10 80 90 50 && .JAN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MS...None. LA...None. AR...None. && $$ /15