719
FXUS64 KTSA 091600
AFDTSA

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tulsa OK
1100 AM CDT Thu May 9 2024

...New SHORT TERM...

.SHORT TERM...
(The rest of today )
Issued at 1100 AM CDT Thu May 9 2024
A few elevated showers/thunderstorms across northeast Oklahoma
late this morning. This activity is moving into a more stable
air-mass, so overall coverage will likely be very isolated at best
before weakening. Additional, mainly elevated, showers/thunderstorms
are expected across southeast Oklahoma this afternoon as mid level
disturbance approaches from the southwest. A storm or two could
become marginally severe near the Red River, closer to the cold
front, before shifting southeast.


&&

.LONG TERM...
(Tonight through Wednesday)
Issued at 320 AM CDT Thu May 9 2024

High pressure builds across the region Friday into Saturday with
dry weather and near normal temperatures. The pattern aloft will
feature a near stationary closed low over the southwestern CONUS
which is expected to finally move across the southern Plains
Sunday through Monday. Shower and thunderstorm chances will
increase accordingly with widespread rains appearing likely Sunday
night through Monday. Overall the severe weather potential appears
rather low at this time with limited instability and stronger flow
more south the region.

The flow aloft remains northwesterly through the central CONUS in
wake of the passing upper low and likely beyond as amplified
ridging develops over the western CONUS. This should allow several
stronger cold front to move through the region with the severe
weather potential remaining much less than has recently been seen.

&&

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 621 AM CDT Thu May 9 2024

Localized VLIFR vsbys/cigs in fog will continue early in the
valid period at KFYV with conditions to improve to VFR after 14z.
Most TSRA that develops this afternoon and evening is expected to
remain south of KMLC/KFSM, but will carry a VCTS mention at KMLC
from 22z-00z. Otherwise, VFR elements will prevail through the
period.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL   79  53  76  54 /  20  10   0   0
FSM   83  58  78  54 /  30  20   0   0
MLC   81  56  77  53 /  40  20   0   0
BVO   78  49  76  49 /  10  10   0   0
FYV   79  50  73  50 /  20  10   0   0
BYV   77  51  71  50 /  20  10   0   0
MKO   78  53  73  52 /  20  10   0   0
MIO   77  50  72  50 /  20   0   0   0
F10   78  53  74  53 /  30  10   0   0
HHW   82  58  78  54 /  60  30   0   0

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...None.
AR...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...12
LONG TERM....07
AVIATION...23