580
FXUS64 KTSA 130218
AFDTSA

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tulsa OK
918 PM CDT Sun May 12 2024

...New SHORT TERM...

.SHORT TERM...
(The rest of tonight)
Issued at 918 PM CDT Sun May 12 2024

Slow moving , positively tilted upper low continues to progress
eastward into the Plains state this evening while moisture
lifting northeastward on the nose of a subtropical jet streams
into eastern Oklahoma. Increasing showers and thunderstorms are
developing across western and northern Oklahoma this evening, with
these showers and storms expected to increase in coverage through
the evening and overnight hours over northeast Oklahoma as upper
level height falls spread over the region. Additionally, a low
level warm advection regime will take shape as well, with Gulf
moisture moving northward across eastern Oklahoma this evening.
Therefore, another round of widespread showers and embedded
thunderstorms should take shape across most of northeast Oklahoma
overnight tonight. Severe potential will continue to be very low
with the lack of instability across the region. However, some
training of storms could occur and locally heavy rainfall will be
possible for locations along and north of I-44 with some flash
flooding concerns where higher rain rates set up.

going forecast is still in good shape, made some minor updates to
PoPs and QPF for tonight based on the latest data and trends in
the observations.

Bowlan

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Monday through Sunday)
Issued at 205 PM CDT Sun May 12 2024

As low lifts into Kansas late tonight into Monday, additional
showers/thunderstorms will develop ahead of cold front, which is
forecast to move into northeast Oklahoma around mid day. Modest
diurnal heating, coupled with steep mid level lapse rates and
stronger deep layer shear, will support a few strong to marginally
severe storms across SE OK/NW AR into the afternoon hours with a
wind/hail threat.

Scattered showers with a few embedded thunderstorms will remain
possible Monday night as main upper level trough axis swings
through overnight. A few lingering showers during the day Tuesday
are possible on backside of upper low, before precipitation
shifts east of northwest Arkansas by Tuesday afternoon.

Shower/thunderstorm chances ramp back up again Thursday into
Friday as a series of upper disturbances traverse with a weak cold
front sagging into area. Locally heavy rainfall could be possible
during this time as PWATs climb into the 1.5-1.6 inch range ahead
of boundary.

A little more uncertainty further into the extended forecast next
weekend with a larger spread in the models. In general, warming
trend expect with high temperatures running several degrees above
normal.

&&

.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 643 PM CDT Sun May 12 2024

Initially VFR conditions will lower to MVFR and eventually IFR or
lower by late tonight and early Monday morning. An increase in
shower and thunderstorm coverage is also expected later tonight
into Monday morning. Conditions will improve to MVFR or VFR Monday
afternoon, with thunderstorm chances increasing again Monday
afternoon especially at the Arkansas sites as a cold front
approaches.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL   61  77  59  79 /  90  60  20  10
FSM   63  79  61  79 /  70  70  30  30
MLC   62  79  58  80 /  90  50  20  10
BVO   58  76  56  79 /  90  70  30  10
FYV   59  77  57  75 /  70  80  50  50
BYV   59  75  58  72 /  70  80  50  60
MKO   61  76  58  75 /  80  70  30  20
MIO   61  74  58  74 /  90  90  50  40
F10   61  77  57  77 /  90  60  20  10
HHW   63  80  59  80 /  90  50  10   0

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...None.
AR...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...04
LONG TERM....12
AVIATION...05