Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Binghamton, NY

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000
FXUS61 KBGM 301909
AFDBGM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY
309 PM EDT TUE SEP 30 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK STORM SYSTEM WILL BRING A CHANCE FOR A FEW SHOWERS TO THE
REGION TONIGHT INTO EARLY WEDNESDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL RETURN
WITH DRY WEATHER FOR THURSDAY, AND THEN A STRONG FRONT WILL BRING
RAIN TO THE AREA BY FRIDAY NIGHT.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
300 PM UPDATE...

ELONGATED AREA OF LOW PRESSURE AND ASSOCIATED CLOUDS AND SHOWERS
STILL SLOWLY ROTATING THROUGH WESTERN PA AND NY. MEANWHILE SURFACE
HEATING WELL AHEAD OF THIS SYSTEM COMBINED WITH MINIMAL
INSTABILITY (MLCAPES AROUND 500 J/KG) AND STEEP LAPSE RATES
THROUGH THE MID LEVELS HAS BEEN ENOUGH TO GENERATE ISOLATED
SHOWERS/T-STORMS ALREADY. DO NOT EXPECT ANYTHING MORE THAN GARDEN
VARIETY STORMS WITH 0-6 KM SHEAR VALUES OF UNDER 15 KTS. WHILE
ARIEL COVERAGE WILL NOT BE GREAT (POPS LESS THAN 40%), SLOW STORM
MOVEMENT WILL ALLOW FOR SOME MUCH NEEDED BRIEF PERIODS OF HEAVY
RAIN.

LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MENTIONED ABOVE SLIDES SOUTHEAST ACROSS PA
LATER TONIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY. MORE SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE OVERNIGHT
WITH THE HIGHEST CHANCES CONFINED TO NORTHERN PA, WHICH WILL BE
CLOSER TO THE SURFACE LOW TRACK. TEMPS WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON WILL
STILL BE ABOVE NORMAL BUT JUST A TAD "COOLER" THAN TODAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
300 PM UPDATE...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTROL OUR WEATHER THIS PERIOD WITH QUIET
WEATHER EXPECTED. WITH OUR LOW SUN ANGLE AND GOOD RADITIONAL
CONDITIONS EXPECTED, RIVER VALLEY FOG IS LIKELY BOTH THURSDAY AND
FRIDAY MORNING. ONE MINOR CHANGE FROM THE PREVIOUS FORECAST WAS TO
SLOW DOWN THE RAIN FOR FRIDAY, AND PUSH RAIN CHANCES BACK INTO THE
VERY LATE AFTERNOON.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
2 PM UPDATE...
H5 TROF DIGGING IN TO START OFF THE EXTNDD WITH WIDESPREAD LGT-
MODERATE RAINFALL EXPECTED AS ADDNL WV MVS UP LATE FRI NIGHT.
FROPA OCCURS ON SATURDAY WITH JUST CHC POPS THRU THE LONG TERM AS
UL TROF RMNS THRU THE EARLY PART OF NEXT WEEK. HV SIDED WITH WPC
GUIDANCE BUT HV KNOCKED CATEGORICAL POPS DOWN TO LKLY FRI NGT AS
IT IS TOO FAR OUT TO GO NR 100 AT THIS POINT.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
18Z UPDATE...
SCT-BKN VFR CIGS DEVELOPING AT THIS TIME IN RESPONSE TO WAVE
DROPPING INTO WESTERN NY. SHRA AND ISOLATED TSRA EXPECTED TO BE CONFINED
TO MAINLY BGM AND AVP AND POSSIBLY ELM BETWEEN 22Z AND 02Z. BIG
QUESTION CENTERS AROUND WHAT WILL OCCUR DURING THE OVERNIGHT
HOURS. MARINE LAYER IS STILL SITTING OFF TO THE EAST AND WITH
EASTERLY FLOW AT LOW LEVELS TONIGHT POTENTIAL EXISTS FOR IT TO
MOVE INTO TERMINALS AFTER 06Z. HOWEVER, IF IT DOESN`T, IFR VSBYS
WILL DEVELOP IN FOG UNDER BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS.

HV GONE WITH PREDOMINANT IFR VSBYS BETWEEN 06Z AND 14Z AT ELM WITH
IFR IN A TEMPO GROUP BTWN 08Z-12Z AT ITH AND BGM. EXPECT
CONDITIONS WILL SLOWLY IMPROVE AFTER 14Z.

WINDS LGT OUT OF THE E-SE WILL BCM LGT/VRB OVERNIGHT.

OUTLOOK...

WED TO FRI...VFR...EXCEPT FOR EARLY MORNING VALLEY
FOG...ESPECIALLY KELM. ALSO...BRIEF RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE FROM
-SHRA WED AFTN.

FRI NGT...WIDESPREAD RESTRICTIONS PSBL FROM SHRA.

SAT/SUN...MAINLY VFR. SOME -SHRA POSSIBLE.

&&

.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...HEDEN
NEAR TERM...HEDEN
SHORT TERM...HEDEN
LONG TERM...PVN
AVIATION...PVN





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