Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Binghamton, NY

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FXUS61 KBGM 290548
AFDBGM

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Binghamton NY
148 AM EDT Thu Jun 29 2017

.SYNOPSIS...
Though much of today will be dry, showers and thunderstorms
will be possible late this afternoon through Friday as multiple
disturbances pass through the region. A cold front will then
move in Saturday resulting in yet another round of showers and
thunderstorms. The weather pattern should finally quiet down for
a time early next week courtesy of high pressure.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
910 PM update...
Dew points are starting out low this evening, but should rise
into the middle-50s by early Thursday morning ahead of a warm
front lifting into SW New York.

We made minor adjustments to temperatures and winds overnight.
Mixing should preclude fog development. The forecast remains in
good shape.

330 PM update... Main concerns in the near term remain focused
around a few rain showers across central NY this afternoon and
early evening...followed by a quiet night and a return to an
active period with scattered rain showers moving in nw to se in
the afternoon and the onset of more widespread showers and
thunderstorms in the evening, continuing but weakening through
the overnight hours.

Area of low pressure over the wrn Great Lakes will track ewd to near
Michigan Thursday morning with a warm front extending to the east.
The warm front will lift to the e/ne into wrn NY Thursday morning
with mainly rain showers spreading from west to ne through the
Finger Lakes into nrn NY. There may be a few isolated embedded weak
elevated thunderstorms, but probability is very low.

The boundary layer will deepen and become very unstable as the day
progresses and a strong swly flow ushers in a very warm and moist
air mass. Surface temperatures in the lower 80s and dewpoints in the
lower 60s will lead to SB CAPE values in the 1000-2000 J/kg range.
Dynamics will be weak with deep layer shear around 30 kt...and an a
passing weak jet streak to the north. The main threats will be large
hail and damaging winds.

One of the main challenges will be the onset of the heaviest
precipitation and strongest convection. Will see an initial round of
rain in the morning, and a stronger set of convection over wrn NY in
the afternoon. This second round will push into the Finger Lakes and
mix out as the boundary layer continues to deepen. As the afternoon
progresses the mixed layer will become more unstable and additional
convection will initiate to the west. Where and when this convection
forms will be the main challenge. High resolution guidance has most
of the strong convection from the Finger Lakes into central NY
anywhere from 00-12Z Friday. Deep layer moisture will be elevated as
well...PWATs around 1-1.5 inches...leading to the potential for
localized flooding issues as well.

Temperatures tonight will fall into the 50s. Highs on Thursday will
climb into the upper 70s and lower to mid 80s. Overnight lows Thur
will only drop into the lower to mid 60s.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
230 PM EDT Update...
Friday will finally feel like summer with temperatures in the
low 80s across central NY and upper 80s over NEPA. Friday will
be very muggy and with the flow aloft still being cyclonic, the
chance for rain continues. There may be a brief lull in activity
Friday morning, however that may be short lived as the
combination of many embedded waves aloft moving through the area
and diurnal heating across the region showers and thunderstorms
are expected to become widespread by late afternoon and last
through possibly midnight. Temps will remain in the uppr 60s
Friday night.

Saturday is very similar in nature. Showers and thunderstorms likely
throughout the day. Warm and muggy temperatures, with temps rising
into the low to mid 80s across the region. Temps Sat night will fall
into the mid/upper 60s.
s

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
245 PM EDT Update...
Minor changes made to the previous forecast. Updated with new
WPC guidance.

An upper-lvl wave will swing across the east on Sunday and
generate an environment for showers and thunderstorms across
the region. While additional shortwaves will move across the
region Monday and Tuesday these waves will be weaker in nature
and this might result in a break in the pattern. Thus, Monday
and Tuesday could be dry.

Temps during the forecast period will be near the seasonal norm.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
VFR conditions will dominate, but a threat of thunderstorms
will begin to encroach late afternoon through evening, at least
for parts of Central New York. Before then, a mid to high deck
of clouds - between 10 and 25 kft - will pass by early this
morning due to warming air aloft. A brief shower is not out the
question KSYR-KRME but with no restrictions. Later this morning
through much of the day, the deck of higher clouds will exit,
leaving a scattered cumulus field in its wake around 6-8 kft agl
except broken for KSYR-KRME. Then late afternoon through
evening, scattered thunderstorms are expected to impact at least
KSYR-KRME as a disturbance zips into the area. Confidence not
high enough to include in TAFs for terminals further south,
though it is at least possible that a rogue thunderstorm could
skim through. Light and variable winds will become south to
southwest later this morning through afternoon at 8-12 knots
with gusts around 14-19 knots. At KRME, winds will remain
southeast around 8 knots until late afternoon. Winds will then
slacken at all terminals in the evening.

Outlook...

Friday through Saturday evening...Periodic restrictions
anticipated in showers/thunderstorms.

Late Saturday night through Sunday...Mainly VFR but still a
small chance for showers-thunder and associated restrictions.

Sunday night through Monday...VFR.

&&

.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...None.
NY...None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...MDP
NEAR TERM...BJT/DJP
SHORT TERM...KAH
LONG TERM...KAH
AVIATION...MDP


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