Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Binghamton, NY

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000
FXUS61 KBGM 201249
AFDBGM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY
849 AM EDT SAT SEP 20 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST WILL ALLOW A WARMER
SOUTHERLY FLOW TO DEVELOP TODAY...AS MORNING CLOUDS GIVE WAY TO
PARTLY SUNNY SKIES THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS MOST OF THE REGION. MILD
WEATHER WILL CONTINUE INTO SUNDAY...WITH SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
BECOMING LIKELY BY SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING AS A COLD FRONT
MOVES THROUGH THE AREA. LINGERING SHOWERS WILL PERSIST INTO MONDAY
ACROSS CENTRAL NEW YORK...THEN A PROLONGED PERIOD OF FAIR WEATHER
IS EXPECTED FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
850 AM UPDATE...
OVERALL FORECAST IN GOOD SHAPE. BASED ON SATELLITE DEPICTION OF
LOW CLOUD COVER SLOWLY MOVING EAST, INCREASED CLOUD COVER ACROSS
SOUTHERN NY AND NEPA THROUGH LATE MORNING. BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS
OVER WESTERN NY WILL GRADUALLY MOVE EAST WITH CLOUDS THINNING
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. PREVIOUS AFD IS BELOW...


615 AM UPDATE...REMOVED SLGT CHC POPS FOR -DZ ACRS NE PA AND
PORTIONS OF CNTRL NY FOR EARLY THIS MRNG. OTRW JUST MINOR TWEEKS
TO T/TD/CLD GRIDS. PREV BLO...

HIGH PRESSURE OFF THE MID ATLC CST EARLY THIS MRNG. STRATUS DECK
HAS MOVD INTO NE PA AND MUCH OF CNTRL NY. MDL PROFILES SUGGEST
THIS DECK WILL BEGIN TO SCATTER OUT BY LATE MRNG/EARLY AFTN...BUT
WILL LIKELY LINGER WELL INTO THE AFTN ACRS PORTIONS OF THE WRN
CATSKILLS AND POCONOS. 925 TEMPS LATER THIS AFTN APRCH +18C ACRS
WRN ZONES...SUPPORTING MAXES IN THE U70S TO NEAR 80. FURTHER
EAST WHERE CLDS LINGER...MAXES WILL BE COOLER...WITH U60S TO L70S
LIKELY. GUSTY S TO SW WINDS THIS AFTN...SPCLY FINGER LAKES RGN
WHERE G25-30 LOOK LIKELY. MILD SSW FLOW CONTINUES TNGT WITH MINS
ONLY DROPPING BACK INTO THE U50S OR L60S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
PCPN ASSCD WITH LEAD S/WV MAY WORK INTO FAR WRN ZONES ON SUNDAY
MRNG...BUT BETTER CHCS FOR PCPN WILL BE IN THE AFTN/EVNG HRS WITH
APRCH OF MAIN VORT LOBE AND ASSCD CDFNT. MDLS SHOW VARYING AMTS OF
INSTABILITY AND AGREE ON FAIRLY IMPRSV DYNAMICS AND MDT WIND
FIELDS. SPC HAS RGN IN A "SEE TEXT" WHICH LOOKS GOOD AT THIS
POINT. MAXES SHUD GET BACK INTO THE M70S ON SUNDAY MOST AREAS.

FNT WILL SWEEP THRU THE RGN BY SUN EVNG WITH SOME "WRAP-
ARND" MSTR...ENHANCED BY LAKE INFLUENCES...OVER THE RGN LATE SUN
NGT INTO MONDAY MRNG. DRIER AIR WORKS IN MON AFTN WITH IMPROVING
CONDITIONS XPCTD. MAXES FALL BACK INTO THE U50S ACRS CNTRL NY TO
L/M60S NE PA.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
305 AM UPDATE...
NO CHGS NEEDED TO EXTNDD WITH THE MRNG UPDATE AS HIPRES BOTH AT
SFC AND ALOFT BUILD IN FOLLOWING WEAK TROF PASSAGE TUE MRNG.

PREV DISCUSSION BLO...

EXTENDED PERIOD BEGINS WITH A WEAK SFC TROF PASSING THROUGH LATE
MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY. BOUNDARY IS MOISTURE STARVED SO WILL ONLY
CARRY SLIGHT CHC POPS IN THE FAR NRN CWA. REST OF EXTENDED LOOKS
LIKE A GREAT PERIOD OF EARLY FALL WEATHER WITH A STRONG UPPER
LEVEL RIDGE ACROSS THE EASTERN US. SFC HIGH PRES WILL BUILD SOUTH
OVER THE REGION MID WEEK THEN MOVE OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST LATE
WEEK. TEMPS WILL MODIFY THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH TEMPS RUNNING
ABOVE SEASONAL LEVELS BY WEEKS END.

&&

.AVIATION /13Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
12Z UPDATE...
MVFR RESTRICTIONS WILL AFFECT ALL BUT SYR FOR NEXT SEVERAL HOURS
AS MARINE LAYER CONTINUES TO AFFECT TERMINALS THIS MORNING. AS
HEATING BEGINS TO ERODE THE LOW CLOUDS EXPECT CIGS TO RISE AND
SETTLE OUT AT A BKN VFR LAYER AFTER 16Z. THESE CLOUDS WILL LIKELY
SCATTER OUT FURTHER AROUND 23Z SATURDAY LEAVING JUST HIGH CLOUDS
ACROSS THE MAJORITY OF THE TERMINALS THROUGH THE EARLY PART OF THE
OVERNIGHT. MARINE LAYER EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ONCE AGAIN AFTER 06Z
AND SLOWLY MOVE NORTH WITH OVC MVFR DECK EXPECTED, POSSIBLY
DROPPING TO IFR AT BGM BETWEEN 10Z AND 12Z.

WINDS FROM THE SOUTH AROUND 10KTS BY MID-MORNING WITH GUSTS BETWEEN
20-25KTS DURING THE DAY. WINDS DIMINISH TO AROUND 10KTS AT SUNSET
BUT REMAIN OUT OF THE SOUTH.

OUTLOOK...

SUN AND MON...POSSIBLE RESTRICTIONS IN SHWRS...ESPECIALLY SUN.

TUE...VFR WILL LIKELY RETURN.

WED...VFR.

&&

.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...
NEAR TERM...HEDEN
SHORT TERM...
LONG TERM...PVN/RRM
AVIATION...PVN





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