Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Binghamton, NY

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FXUS61 KBGM 211550

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Binghamton NY
1050 AM EST Sat Jan 21 2017

A foggy morning will give way to a mild but overcast Saturday. A
storm system moving out of the Central U.S. will spread rain, or
perhaps a wintry mix, across NY and PA late Sunday into Tuesday.


1045 am update... Satellite imagery shows breaks in the lower
clouds across parts of the Finger Lakes region late this morning,
likely owing to some downsloping in the S-SW flow regime.
Elsewhere, lower clouds, and even areas of higher elevation fog,
are hanging tough.

Although a slight expansion of the relatively clear area may
occur across parts of CNY early this afternoon, clouds should
continue to have the upper hand in most areas.

Readings are already quite mild for late January (upper 30s-mid
40s area-wide), and they should edge upward a few more degrees
this afternoon, given the very mild temperatures aloft, and also
some breaks of sun across the Finger Lakes region. Where some
sunshine is seen this afternoon, low-mid 50s are certainly not out
of the question.

Previous discussion... 315 AM update... Plenty of clouds,
drizzle, and patchy fog will be around through Sunday. Low
inversion heights combined with high near-surface humidity levels
and light winds point toward a persistent light fog and low
stratus deck remaining over our forecast area.

A weak wave spinning off the larger cyclone complex over the
southeastern U.S. may bring a few showers to NY and PA Sunday
afternoon before the warm front advances northward with steadier

Anomalous warmth, depicted by +6C to +8C 925mb temperatures
hovering over NY state, will keep our temperatures much above
normal Saturday and Sunday. Highs in the upper 40s to lower 50s
are forecast both days.


A complex coastal system will impact the region Sunday night
through Monday night. A low pressure system will move into the mid
Atlantic region Sunday night then slowly lift off the
Virgina/Delmarva coast Monday night.

The precipitation Sunday night will be in the form of just rain as
temperatures as the surface and aloft will only support rain. On
Monday, colder air in the mid levels spreads across the region
from the east/northeast. The Canadian continues to be the coldest
solution and was not followed. The GFS/ECMWF solution has been the
most consistent and used this compromise solution to determine
precipitation type. Soundings indicate as colder air comes in
around 800mb and boundary layer cools precipitation will mix with
sleet and snow. The least likely precipitation type is freezing
rain and generally not forecast. On Monday the wintry mix will
begin in the far eastern forecast area and then spread west as
cold air continues advecting across the area. By Monday night the
precipitation will gradually change to snow at most locations
but the far southeast areas. The bulk of the precipitation will
occur Monday afternoon and into the evening hours.

At this time snow accumulations across the northern half of the
forecast area could range from 2 to 4 inches will little if any
snow across northeast Pennsyvlania. Still a fair way off before
the fine details of this system are determined so a lot can
change. Hydro wise, not looking like a significant event but will
continue to monitor.

Strong easterly flow later Monday into Monday night will result
in some very gusty conditions especially in the higher terrain.


Lingering rain/snow showers will occur on Tuesday as coastal
system lifts up through the New England coast. Wednesday into
Thursay low pressure will track from the central Great Lakes
northeast into near southern Ontario. This system will bring the
area mixed rain/snow showers Wednesday through Thursday. Colder
air behind this feature combined with an upper level trof in
eastern Canada will bring temperatures back to more seasonal
levels late next week and into the weekend along with scattered
snow showers.


Moisture trapped under an inversion will keep low clouds and fog
over the terminals.

Little improvement in ceiling heights is expected today, though
visibilities should increase by mid-morning as surface
temperatures warm toward 50 degrees.

Winds will remain light through Saturday evening.

Saturday night through early Sunday...Restrictions likely to
continue in lower ceilings and areas of fog.

Late Sunday, Monday, and into Tuesday...Restrictions likely in
rain or a wintry mix.

Wednesday...More restrictions possible in rain or snow showers.




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