Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Binghamton, NY

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FXUS61 KBGM 250106
AFDBGM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY
806 PM EST SAT JAN 24 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
VERY LIGHT SNOW ALONG WITH PATCHY FREEZING DRIZZLE WILL OCCUR
OVER PARTS OF CENTRAL NEW YORK AND THE NORTHERN TIER OF
PENNSYLVANIA UNTIL MIDNIGHT. COLDER WEATHER AND SCATTERED SNOW
SHOWERS WILL MOVE IN LATER TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY, ESPECIALLY ACROSS
NEW YORK STATE ALONG A SOUTHWARD DROPPING COLD FRONT. ANOTHER
STORM SYSTEM WILL MOVE IN MONDAY MORNING, SPREADING LIGHT SNOW
INTO THE AREA. THE MOST LIKELY AREAS TO SEE SNOW WILL BE FROM THE
SOUTHERN TIER OF NEW YORK AND POINTS SOUTH.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SUNDAY MORNING/...
8 PM UPDATE...ISSUED A SHORT TERM, UNTIL MIDNIGHT, WINTER WEATHER
ADVISORY FOR CENTRAL NY/NRN TIER OF PA FOR AREAS OF FREEZING
DRIZZLE. WE ANTICIPATE THE ACTIVITY TO CONTINUE UNTIL THEN WHEN
CAA WILL COOL THE COLUMN ENOUGH FOR ANY REMAINING FREEZING PRECIP
TO CHANGE TO FROZEN. REST OF FORECAST IN GOOD SHAPE.

545 PM UPDATE...A QUICK UPDATE TO THE FORECAST AS PATCHY FREEZING
DRIZZLE WILL BE POSSIBLE THIS EVENING ACROSS MUCH OF CENTRAL NEW
YORK AND THE NORTHERN TIER OF PA. UPSTREAM OBS INDICATE A MIX OF
VERY LIGHT SNOW AND SOME PATCHY FREEZING DRIZZLE WHICH WILL MOVE
INTO THE REGION SHORTLY AS THE NEXT SFC COLD FRONT APPROACHES THE
AREA. MESOSCALE MODEL SOUNDINGS INDICATE THIS MIX MAY CONTINUE
UNTIL LATE THIS EVENING WHEN THE COLUMN WILL COOL ENOUGH FOR JUST
SNOW. SPS HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR THE SHORT TERM.

1 PM UPDATE...
SFC LOW IS NOW SITTING A COUPLE OF HUNDRED MILES SOUTH OF CAPE COD
BRINGING WINTRY PCPN IN THE FORM OF SNOW, SLEET AND RAIN TO NEW
ENGLAND. LGT SNOW HAS ALL BUT EXITED CWA RIGHT ON SCHEDULE. SNOW
REPORTS RANGE FM A DUSTING IN THE SRN TIER OF NY TO AS MUCH AS ISOLD
7-8 INCHES ALONG AND SOUTH OF I-84.

ANTICYCLONIC FLOW BRIEFLY MAKING AN APPEARANCE AT SFC-H8 HAS ALLOWED
CLRNG TO DVLP ACRS CNTRL NY AND WL MAKE AN APPEARANCE ACRS ALL OF
CWA THIS AFTN AS IT MVS SOUTH. HWVR, SKIES WL QUICKLY CLD BACK UP
AHD OF IMPENDING CDFNT WHICH IS CURRENTLY LOCATED FM CNTRL QUEBEC
INTO THE UPR LAKES AND DROPPING SOUTH.

LGT SNOW SHOWERS WL DVLP AHD OF BNDRY LATE THIS AFTN/EVNG. NOT
EXPECTING FRONT TO GET INTO CWA UNTIL AFTER 06Z TONIGHT THUS THINK
THAT CHC POPS LOOK BEST THRU MOST OF THE NIGHT. AS BNDRY SLIDES
SOUTH AWAY FM LAKE EXPECTING FLURRIES AND/OR ISOLD SNOW SHOWERS WL
DROP DOWN INTO SRN TIER BY DAYBREAK. JUST A DUSTING AT BEST EXPECTED
RIGHT NOW.

H8 TEMPS WL NOT DROP ENUF TO PRODUCE ANY ORGANIZED LK EFFECT SNOWS
TONIGHT WITH DELTA T`S EXPECTED TO BE 10C THRU MRNG HRS. THUS THINK
SCTD SNOW SHOWERS HANDLE IT BEST AT THIS POINT IN TIME. AFT FROPA
BTWN 06Z AND 09Z FLOW WL ALIGN ITSELF ARND 300 DEGREES WITH AN INCH
OR TWO EXPECTED BY MRNG ACRS FAVORED LK ZONES.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY/...
220 PM UPDATE...
SUNDAY WILL FEATURE HIPRES BUILDING IN FM THE NORTH BRINGING PSUNNY
SKIES TO THE AREA BY AFTN. NRLY FLOW STRAIGHT FM CANADA WL ALSO BE
BROUGHT IN WITH TEMPS RMNG STEADY OR GRADUALLY FALLING THRU THE DAY
ESPECIALLY ACRS NRN ZONES. WHERE TEMPS ARE, ALONG AND NORTH OF THE
THRUWAY AT 12Z, WL BE THEIR HIGHS FOR THE DAY THEN FALLING FURTHER
SOUTH AS THE DAY CONTS. DRY AIR WL BE MVG IN FM ALOFT QUICKLY
DIMINISHING PCPN BY LATE MRNG WITH NO -SHSN EXPECTED AFT 18Z.

SYSTEM NOW UP OVR THE NRN ROCKIES WL BE DIVING SOUTHEAST DRG THE DAY
SUNDAY. ALL MED RANGE MODELS ARE NOW IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH TRACK
DRG THE DAY AS 12Z GFS, EC, NAM AND CMC HV IT LOCATED ALONG THE
IL/IA/MO LINE BY 12Z SUNDAY. DRY 1024MB SFC HIGH WL HELP SHUNT
SYSTEM TO THE SOUTH ACRS THE OH VLY ON SUNDAY WITH NO SNOW EXPECTED.
SFC LOW SCOOTS EAST DRG THE OVRNGT BUT SFC HIGH WL ALSO HOLD TIGHT
THUS EXPECT LGT SNOW TO BEGIN DOWN ACRS POCONOS ARND 06Z. AS HIGH
RELAXES ITS GRIP AND BUILDS INTO ERN CANADA BY DAYBREAK EXPECT THAT
PCPN WL SLIDE NORTH TWD THE STATE LINE BY 12Z MONDAY.

INVERTED TROF EXPECTED TO BRING LGT SNOW TO MOST OF THE AREA ON
MONDAY AS CYCLOGENESIS OCCURS OFF THE ERN SEABOARD. EXPECTING A
GNRLY 1-3 INCHES OF SNOW, MAINLY FOR SWRN CNTYS THRU 00Z TUESDAY.
INTENSE NOREASTER WL LKLY BRING A FOOT+ TO SRN NEW ENGLAND THRU
MID-WEEK. WITH SFC HIGH STILL HOLDING TIGHT TO EXTRM NRN PARTS OF FA
THERE WL LKLY BE A SHARP LINE BTWN SNOW-NO SNOW.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
245 PM EST UPDATE...
CLOSELY FOLLOWED WPC GUIDANCE.

A COUPLE OF WAVES ARE EXPECTED TO MOVE THROUGH THE REGION THROUGH
THE EXTENDED FORECAST.

IT STILL APPEARS THAT THE COASTAL STORM WILL STAY FAR ENOUGH EAST
TO IMPACT THE CWA TUESDAY NIGHT. WED HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD BACK
INTO THE REGION BUT WILL BE QUICKLY PUSHED TO THE EAST AS ANOTHER
CLIPPER APPROACHES NY AND PA. THIS CLIPPER WILL IMPACT THE CWA
CREATING SNOW SHOWERS WHICH ARE EXPECTED TO START LATE THURS
AFTERNOON/EVENING. SNOW SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE THROUGH FRIDAY
AFTERNOON. ANOTHER RIDGE WILL BUILD BACK BEHIND THIS SYSTEM
RESULTING IN DRY WEATHER FOR SAT.

TEMPS WED WILL BE WELL BELOW THE SEASONAL NORM WITH MINIMUM TEMPS
FALLING TO NEAR OR BELOW ZERO. TEMPS WILL MODERATE SLIGHTLY ON THURS
AND FRI REACHING NEAR NORMAL TEMPS... THEN FALL BACK BELOW ON SAT.

&&

.AVIATION /01Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
A STORM SYSTEM SLIDING EAST WILL CAUSE A MIX OF FREEZING DRIZZLE
AND LIGHT SNOW TO FORM OVER THE NY TERMINALS THIS EVENING. MAINLY
MVFR CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST, WITH VERY BRIEF IFR POSSIBLE IN SNOW
SHOWERS.

CEILINGS WILL LIFT AROUND NOON TOMORROW INTO VFR TERRITORY.

OUTLOOK...

SUN NGT-MON...VFR EXCEPT POSSIBLE -SN AT KAVP AS CLIPPER PASSES.

MON NGT-TUE...MINOR RESTRICTIONS FROM LAKE CLOUDS AND/OR -SN...MAINLY
NY TERMINALS.

TUE NGT-WED...MAINLY VFR.

THURS...RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE IN -SHSN.

&&

.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT EST TONIGHT FOR
     PAZ038>040.
NY...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT EST TONIGHT FOR NYZ009-
     015>018-022>025-036-037-044>046-055>057-062.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...PVF/RRM
NEAR TERM...PVF/RRM
SHORT TERM...PVF
LONG TERM...KAH
AVIATION...DJP





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