Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Binghamton, NY

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FXUS61 KBGM 300525
AFDBGM

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Binghamton NY
125 AM EDT Sun Apr 30 2017

.SYNOPSIS...
Scattered showers and isolated thunder will be possible at times
through the weekend, yet most of the time will be dry. The next
best chance for widespread showers and some thunderstorms will
be late Monday through Monday night as a cold front moves across
the region.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
345 PM Update...
A shallow cold front decidedly slipped through most of the
region earlier today. Persistent clouds north of the front has
held back daytime heating for a large chunk of the region, where
temperatures have been stuck in the upper 50s-lower 60s. To the
south, however, temperatures have warmed well into the 70s
including Hazleton Scranton and Monticello. A weak wave aloft is
traversing the frontal zone this afternoon with showers inbound
for Twin Tiers southward but conditions are generally too
stable for thunder. High resolution models depict that the
showers will continue to dissipate while moving across the
southern portion of the region, as the front continues to tilt
and stretch out. That is, the surface front will still ooze
south for a time while aloft it will be lifting northward.

The frontal boundary overnight will lift north through the
region, but aloft strong ridging will occur. In addition to
allowing lower deck of clouds to scatter in favor of a higher
level one, this should squelch shower activity for most of the
night. Another weak embedded wave will try to move through the
ridge late tonight into Sunday morning. This should be enough to
touch off at least scattered elevated-base showers, and with a
small amount of instability aloft, perhaps isolated thunder with
the better chances towards the Finger Lakes to NY Thruway
corridor. Once that wave passes, however, much of Sunday will be
dry with warming occurring especially for the Central Twin
Tiers through Finger Lakes where highs will range from 65 to 70
degrees.

Sunday evening, with warm front hanging roughly along the Lake
Ontario counties, a wave will pass which may allow some convection
to attempt skimming across the northern zones. This is a pretty
uncertain, and prospects will be much better north of the
front. Thus shower-thunder chances were kept quite low for
Sunday night. It will be quite mild with lows of mainly 50s-near
60 except for upper 40s in higher terrain of Catskills and
northern Oneida County.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
3 PM Update...

This will be the time when the best chance of showers and
thunderstorms will occur. A large cut off low will move out of
the plains through the Midwest into the western Great Lakes
Monday then Quebec Tuesday. Monday morning solidly in warm
sector and mostly dry. With an evening occluded frontal passage
the early afternoon will also be mostly dry. High temperatures
will get into the upper 70s creating some surface instability.
Dynamics are good with 40 to 50 kt bulk shear. Wind fields very
strong with an upper level jet above 100 and low level jet over
50. Convergence along the front will bring moisture north. pwats
go to 1.5 inches which is high for May 1st. Heavy rain possible
and gusty winds. Front is progressive so widespread amounts
under an inch. In addition rain the next two days should be
light. In general amounts from the past week have been under an
inch. Ground should be able to take a quick inch of rain. Front
and rain should be east of the area during the overnight. Lows
falling only to the 50s.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
3 PM update...

Continued unsettled pattern with temperatures falling to closer
to average or a little below. An upper level trough will be over
the area to start then lift slightly before a reinforcing shot
of cold air aloft Friday. Fortunately fairly moist so little
clearing so a freeze looks unlikely attm. Tuesday/Wednesday
showers with cold northwest flow on back side of large storm.
Wednesday night a brief break then moisture streams northeast
ahead of another strong surface low. This will bring rain for
Thursday and Friday before more showers on Saturday.

Highs mid 50s to low 60s whole period but low temperatures fall
into the 40s entire period. If any clearing could fall into the
30s.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...

A weak upper wave will pass through the area today and generate
a few showers, mainly over SYR and RME. Brief MVFR ceilings or
visibilty is possible with the rain. The balance of the day
light hours will be VFR otherwise, with northerly winds. A
return to MVFR ceilings is likely after 00Z as the sounding
stabiliuzes and moisture collects below the inversion.

Outlook...

Monday morning...Mainly VFR.

Monday afternoon through Tuesday morning...Restrictions likely from
showers and thunderstorms as frontal system moves through.

Tuesday afternoon through Friday...Mainly VFR but a chance of
showers and associated restrictions at times.

&&

.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...None.
NY...None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...MDP
NEAR TERM...MDP
SHORT TERM...TAC
LONG TERM...TAC
AVIATION...BJT/DGM/MDP



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