Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Binghamton, NY

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FXUS61 KBGM 190814

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Binghamton NY
414 AM EDT Sat Aug 19 2017

An upper level disturbance will move across NY and PA this
afternoon and evening bringing scattered showers and isolated
thunderstorms to our area. After this disturbance passes by,
high pressure will build into our region for Sunday and Monday
with fair weather and seasonable temperatures. The next chance
for precipitation will come Tuesday as a cold front approaches
the region.


Radar mosaics show that the showers have fallen apart. IR
channel on the GOES-16 shows few clouds across northeast PA and
central NY and hence there will be net radiational cooling in
the boundary layer. This cooling will lead to valley fog
formation between about 09z and 13z or so in typical fog prone

Water vapor channels on the GOES-16 show a well-defined
cold core upper level trough that was over the Great Lakes and
Mid-West. This feature will work east today and cross central
NY and northeast PA between 00z and 06z this eve. There was a
significant cold pocket aloft with this feature as it
approaches late this afternoon/early evening. Hence there will
be cooling aloft from upper level PV advection which occurs
above a layer of diurnal cumulus as mean boundary layer
dewpoints remain around 14-16C with cooler air advecting in
above. Model soundings suggest some scattered showers and even
some thunderstorms popping this afternoon into the evening with
the diurnal heating combining with the lifting with this upper
wave. Thus have slight chance to chance POPs for showers and
some thunderstorms.

The showers and isolated storms will linger well into the
evening as the coldest air between 700 and 500 mb moves across
NY and PA between 00Z and 06Z. This will counter the loss of
diurnal heating to some extent allowing activity to linger
longer. Expect activity to wane after midnight.

Then for Sunday, high pressure and rising heights will lead to a
fair and a nearly seasonable day for late August.


During this period, zonal flow aloft combined with high
pressure moving from eastern Pennsylvania to off the New Jersey
coast will keep the area dry. High temperatures on Monday will
range in the middle to upper 80s.


4 am update...Medium range models continue to show good
agreement through the extended period. No significant changes to
current forecast just minor adjustments based on latest
guidance. A cold front will pass through the area late Tuesday
night into Wednesday morning. A secondary trough a Thursday may
trigger isolated thunderstorms otherwise the rest of the period
looks dry and cool with high pressure from eastern Canada
dropping into the Great Lakes region. Highs temperatures Thursday
through Saturday will range in the upper 60s to middle 70s.

1245 pm update... On the large-scale, model agreement is fairly
good this period, indicating a transition towards more
amplification once again next week. This pattern should take
the form of a western Canadian-northwest CONUS trough, central
CONUS-intermountain west ridge, and an eastern Canadian-
northeast CONUS trough.

The week should start out generally rain-free and warm from
Monday through much of Tuesday, with highs mostly in the 80s. As
heights aloft begin to fall ahead of the developing eastern
trough mentioned above, a cold front should slowly approach, and
bring increasing chances of showers/thunderstorms from later
Tuesday into Wednesday.

Later next week, although we should trend drier behind the
aforementioned cold front, it likely turn much cooler as well.
In fact, by next Thursday/Friday, we`re looking at highs in the
upper 60s-lower 70s for many areas of CNY/NEPA.


Scattered to broken clouds will continue to linger through the
overnight across our terminals in central NY and northeast PA.
MVFR-IFR ceilings and visibilities will develop as a fairly
moist boundary layer cools as "clean" infrared channel on the
GOES-16 shows lots of breaks in a middle cloud layer. Hence we
have MVFR developing overnight at KRME, KSYR, KITH, and KAVP
between 09z and 13z. Some IFR is expected at KBGM and at times
at KRME with KELM expecting VLIFR in FG between 09z and 13z.

After sunrise, we expect scattered and then broken cumulus to
develop all terminals in the VFR category. The exception is only
scattered at KAVP.


Sunday through Monday...VFR.

Tuesday...Restrictions possible in thunderstorms.





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