Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Binghamton, NY

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FXUS61 KBGM 051423 AAA
AFDBGM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY
1023 AM EDT THU MAY 5 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
A SLOW MOVING UPPER-LEVEL LOW WILL MOVE FROM THE OHIO VALLEY INTO
THE MID ATLANTIC REGION THURSDAY THROUGH LATE FRIDAY. THIS WILL
RESULT IN MAINLY CLOUDY SKIES WITH SOME SCATTERED SHOWERS FOR
THURSDAY FOLLOWED BY A HEAVIER AND STEADIER RAIN FOR FRIDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
10AM UPDATE...
NO MAJOR CHANGES TO THE FORECAST HAVE BEEN MADE...ONLY MINOR
TWEAKS TO THE SKY COVER AND POP/WX FORECAST. HAVE SEEN A BREAK IN
THE STRATO-CU CLOUD COVER ACROSS THE NRN FINGER LAKES AND AREAS
ADJACENT TO LAKE ONTARIO THIS MORNING...BUT HAS ALREADY STARTED TO
FILL BACK IN. STILL EXPECTING TO SEE A FEW ISOLATED SHOWERS
DEVELOP LATER THIS AFTERNOON AS LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES STEEPEN AND
LOW LEVEL INSTABILITY INCREASES. REST OF THE FORECAST LOOKS ON
TRACK.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
THE PERSISTENT PATTERN WE HAVE BEEN IN REMAINS IN
PLACE AS AN UPPER LEVEL LOW SITS OVER THE OHIO VALLEY. WHILE
ABUNDANT LOW CLOUDINESS CONTINUES TO AFFECT THE AREA, NOT REALLY
MUCH IN THE WAY OF FORCING SO NOT SEEING MUCH PRECIP. EXPECT
CONDITIONS TO BE MAINLY PRECIP FREE THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING OTHER
THAN AN OCCASIONAL LIGHT SHOWER OR SOME PATCHY DRIZZLE. SOME FOG
WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE MAINLY OVER THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE CWA
INTO EARLY THIS MORNING HOWEVER AS MOST AREAS ARE SEEING TD
DEPRESSIONS OF AT LEAST A COUPLE DEGREES DO NOT EXPECT ANY
WIDESPREAD DENSE FOG. SOME SHORTWAVE FORCING MOVING NORTH FROM THE
UPPER LOW MOVES INTO THE AREA FOR THIS AFTERNOON AND THIS COMBINED
WITH WEAK HEATING MAY RESULT IN SOME SCATTERED SHOWERS SO CHANCE
POPS ARE INDICATED ACROSS MOST AREAS FOR THE AFTERNOON. OTHERWISE
ANOTHER MAINLY CLOUDY DAY WITH HIGHS IN THE 50S.

LATER TODAY INTO TONIGHT, THE UPPER LEVEL LOW MOVES TOWARD THE
COAST WITH THE RESULT BEING A SURFACE LOW DEVELOPING EAST OF THE
DELMARVA. AS MOISTURE BEGINS TO PIVOT NW AROUND THIS DEEP
CIRCULATION EXPECT INCREASING CHANCES FOR RAIN AND SHOWERS
OVERNIGHT OVER S/E PARTS OF THE CWA FROM NE PA THROUGH
SULLIVAN/DELAWARE COUNTIES INTO THE SOUTHERN TIER. LOWS WILL BE
MAINLY IN THE 40S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
FRIDAY SHAPING UP TO BE A VERY WET DAY AS AN UPPER-LEVEL LOW AND
ASSOCIATED COASTAL LOW SIT SOUTH OF THE AREA. A DEEP AND MOIST E/SE
FLOW AROUND THIS SYSTEM WILL DRAW RAIN INTO THE AREA WHICH WILL
BECOME WIDESPREAD ACROSS THE ENTIRE CWA BY LATE MORNING INTO THE
AFTERNOON. IN ADDITION, THE COLD AIR ALOFT ASSOCIATED WITH THE
UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL RESULT IN STEEPENING MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES
CLOSE TO 7C/KM. THIS COMBINED WITH THE LIFT ASSOCIATED WITH THE
SHORTWAVE ENERGY PIVOTING AROUND THE UPPER LOW WILL RESULT IN
ENOUGH FORCING FOR SOME ELEVATED THUNDERSTORMS TO EVEN BE
POSSIBLE...MAINLY FROM THE TWIN TIERS SOUTHWARD. SOME DIFFERENCES
IN THE FORECAST MODELS REGARDING THE EXACT PLACEMENT OF THE
HEAVIEST QPF AMOUNTS HOWEVER THE GENERAL IDEA WILL BE FOR HEAVIEST
AMOUNTS OVER NE PA WITH LESSER AMOUNTS OVER FAR NORTHERN ZONES OF
NY. UPWARDS OF AN INCH OR SO OF RAIN WILL BE POSSIBLE BY LATE DAY
OVER NE PA...ESPECIALLY OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN. THE RAIN WILL
KEEP TEMPS COOL ONCE AGAIN WITH HIGHS ONLY IN THE 50S.

FOR FRIDAY NIGHT, NEXT UPPER LOW AND ASSOCIATED SURFACE COLD
FRONT APPROACH FROM THE NW ACTING TO KICK OUT FRIDAY`S SYSTEM.
THUS, EXPECT RAIN DIMINISHING TO JUST SOME SCATTERED SHOWERS BY
THE OVERNIGHT.

SATURDAY STILL NOT LOOKING TO BE TOO WET OF A DAY THOUGH AT BEST
ONLY PARTLY SUNNY FOR MOST AREAS AS SE FLOW WILL RESULT IN LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE PERSISTING. A FEW SCATTERED SHOWERS WILL ALSO BE
POSSIBLE. HIGHS WILL BE MAINLY IN THE 60S WITH SOME LOW 70S
POSSIBLE DEPENDING ON HOW MUCH SUN OCCURS.

THE NEXT COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT BRINGING
ANOTHER ROUND OF RAIN AND SHOWERS.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AN OVERALL TROUGHY AND UNSETTLED PATTERN WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE
LONG RANGE.

TO BEGIN THE PERIOD, SHOWERS MOVE OUT THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING WITH
A MIX OF SUN AND CLOUDS BY THE AFTERNOON WITH HIGHS MAINLY IN THE
MID 50S TO LOW 60S. BEYOND THIS TIME WEAK TRANSIENT RIDGING MOVES
IN FOR MONDAY WITH MAINLY SUNNY SKIES AND HIGHS MAINLY IN THE LOW
TO MID 60S. THE FAIR WEATHER WILL BE SHORTLIVED HOWEVER AS THE
NEXT SYSTEM WILL BRING A GOOD CHANCE OF SHOWERS BY TUESDAY INTO
MIDWEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /14Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
MVFR CONDITIONS DOMINATE THE REGION WITH LIGHT EASTERLY
FLOW...THOUGH A FEW SITES ARE STARTING TO SHOWS CIGS RISING AND
VFR CONDITIONS LIKELY AFTER 14-16Z FOR ALL SITES. WINDS WILL
BECOME MORE NORTHERLY AT 5-8 KTS ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA
STARTING IN THE MID TO LATE MORNING AS WELL...WINDS WILL LIGHTEN
AND MAY BE LIGHT AND VARIABLE AFTER 06/00Z WITH MAINLY VFR CIGS
THROUGH THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD.

LIGHT WINDS BECOMING NORTHERLY ON THURSDAY AROUND 8 KNOTS.

OUTLOOK...

FRI...RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE IN LOWER CEILINGS/SHOWERS.

SAT...MAINLY VFR.

SAT NGT - SUN...RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE WITH SHOWERS IN ASSOCIATION
WITH A COLD FRONT.

MON...VFR

&&

.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...PCF
NEAR TERM...BJT/PCF
SHORT TERM...PCF
LONG TERM...PCF
AVIATION...ABS


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