Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Corpus Christi, TX

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FXUS64 KCRP 200012 AAA

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Corpus Christi TX
612 PM CST Mon Feb 19 2018


Updated for the 00Z Aviation Discussion.



Gusty S-SE winds remain strongest across the coastal plains from
CRP-ALI-VCT with gusts of 25-35 KTs. Gusts should begin to
decrease through the evening but remain rather elevated through
the night with gusts of 20-25 KTs. Winds at LRD should begin to
increase this evening also with gusts of 20-25 KTs. This is all
due to the 40-45 KT LLJ that is developing tonight. With winds
remaining elevated, left out mention of LLWS for the overnight
period. VFR CIGs to last for the next couple of hours before
lowering to MVFR levels as the LLJ sets up (exception at LRD where
VFR expected through the TAF period). Chances for rain increase
through Tuesday ahead of an approaching cold front, especially
north of the South Texas region. For this, did include VCSH for
VCT in the afternoon where chances for showers would be greatest.
Maintained MVFR at VCT but did show gradual improvement to CIGs
for ALI-CRP during the afternoon.


.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION... /Issued 354 PM CST Mon Feb 19 2018/

SHORT TERM....SHORT TERM (Tonight through Tuesday Night)...

A long wave low pressure system moving in from west is progged to
have a series of embedded short waves moving around it`s base and
across TX through the short term. Am not expecting any measurable
rainfall this evening as the airmass remains capped. After
midnight, the capping inversion is progged to weaken across the
northwestern CWA and with a disturbance approaching the area, went
with a chc pop across the far NW areas. A couple of meso-scale
models showed convection developing late tonight into early Tue
morning and moving from SW to NE across the CWA. With this
possibility, decided to spread the 20 pops farther east. The
chance for showers and thunderstorms increase Tue and especially
into Tue night ahead of a cold front. Due to increasing
instability, weakening cap, increasing diffluence aloft and the
upper jet becoming more influential, could see some strong storms
Tue or Tue night. Storms Prediction Center has S TX in general
thunder for Tue/Tue night.

Temperatures will remain above normal with highs on Tue in the mid
80s across the Brush Country and lows in the upper 60s to around 70
each night.


Mod to strong southerly winds will weaken this evening across the
bays and nearshore waters, but remain at advisory levels across the
offshore waters through the night into Tue morning. Mod to strong
onshore winds are expected to continue Tue with additional
advisories likely. Winds are expected to begin weakening Tue night
ahead of a cold front. Iso to sct Showers and thunderstorms expected
late Tue into Tue night.

LONG TERM (Wednesday through Monday)...

Active weather pattern in store for portions of the extended period.
The upper trough axis will remain over the Rockies southwest into
the Great Basin Wednesday through Friday. Abundant moisture will be
in place Wednesday ahead of the next cold front that will be slowly
moving southeast through south-central Texas. Some concern for
strong to possibly severe thunderstorms forming in the area on
Wednesday. Air mass should become moderately unstable with 0-1 km
MLCAPE from 1000-1500 J/kg possible in advance of the front. The
upper level jet streak will be lifting north through central Texas
with right entrance region of the jet providing favorable upper
level divergence from east Texas down to the Mid-coast region.

The 0-6 km shear will increase to around 50 knots during the
afternoon as well. Will be something to watch as we get closer to
Wednesday. A little too much uncertainty with regard to timing of
the front, which should be in the northern counties by late
afternoon, and the strength of any mid level inversion to mention
severe storms at this time.

The cold front is expected to move through the inland areas
Wednesday night and stall near the coast. The frontal boundary is
expected to move back inland as a warm front on Thursday. Will hold
on to chance PoPs for Thursday with the better chances inland from
the frontal boundary. Warm front will continue to move farther
inland by Friday as an upper low forms over the Great Basin, leading
to an area of low pressure forming over the southern high plains.
The upper low will open into a wave over the weekend moving through
the south-central plains Saturday and quickly into the Ohio Valley
on Sunday. Moisture axis will move to the north on Friday and will
show only slight chance of showers as southerly low level flow
increases. Another cold front will move toward the coast on Saturday
with the possibility of scattered showers mainly in the Victoria
area. Boundary returns toward the coast as a coastal trough by
Monday leading to a chance of showers again.


Corpus Christi    69  80  67  78  59  /  10  30  40  60  70
Victoria          68  78  67  76  54  /  20  50  60  80  70
Laredo            70  86  68  82  57  /  20  20  50  40  50
Alice             69  85  68  81  58  /  20  30  50  60  60
Rockport          68  76  66  75  58  /  10  30  50  70  70
Cotulla           68  85  66  79  53  /  30  20  60  60  40
Kingsville        70  85  68  82  60  /  20  30  40  50  70
Navy Corpus       68  77  66  73  60  /  10  20  40  60  70


TX...Wind Advisory until 6 PM CST this evening For the following
     zones: Aransas...Bee...Calhoun...Goliad...Jim Wells...
     Kleberg...Live Oak...Nueces...Refugio...San Patricio...

GM...Small Craft Advisory until 10 AM CST Tuesday For the following
     zones: Waters from Baffin Bay to Port Aransas from 20 to 60
     NM...Waters from Port Aransas to Matagorda Ship Channel
     from 20 to 60 NM.

     Small Craft Advisory until 8 PM CST this evening For the
     following zones: Bays and Waterways from Baffin Bay to Port
     Aransas...Coastal waters from Baffin Bay to Port Aransas
     out 20 NM.



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