Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Corpus Christi, TX

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000
FXUS64 KCRP 262040
AFDCRP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CORPUS CHRISTI TX
340 PM CDT THU MAR 26 2015

.SHORT TERM (TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT)...ALTHOUGH 4KM MODELS
(MUCH LESS SYNOPTIC MODELS) HAVE NOT PICKED UP ON CONVECTION OVER
THE NORTHERN BRUSH COUNTRY AND COASTAL BEND (EVEN AS OF 17Z HRRR
RUN)...AM EXPECTING THIS ACTIVITY TO END BY 00Z WITH SKIES CLEARING
LATER THIS AFTERNOON. LOOKS LIKE FROM SATELLITE MABYE A WEAK LOBE
OF ENERGY FROM RRQ OF JET IS WORKING WITH SUFFICIENT LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE.

THAT BEING SAID...EXPECING COOL AND QUIET WITH DECREASING CLOUDS
AND WINDS BY EARLY EVENING. WITH HIGH PRESSURE SINKING SOUTH AND
LIGHT NORTHWEST FLOW BY MORNING...DID GO ON THE COOL SIDE OF
GUIDANCE FOR LOWS TONIGHT. CHAMBER OF COMMERCE WEATHER ON FRIDAY
WITH LOTS OF SUN AND LIGHT WINDS. WESTERLY ALBEIT WEAK FLOW COULD
HELP NUDGE TEMPERATURES UP A DEGREE OR TWO. ONSHORE/SOUTHERLY FLOW
WILL RESUME FRIDAY NIGHT...WHICH MAY HELP KEEP TEMPERATURES UP
CLOSER TO THE COAST (AS LONG AS WINDS DO NOT GO TOO MUCH WEST OF
SOUTH WHICH WOULD COOL THINGS DOWN). GENERALLY WENT CLOSE TO THE
COOLER SIDE OF GUIDANCE MAINLY INLAND AREAS ALTHOUGH COULD BE
COOLER NEAR THE COAST IF THOSE LIGHT SOUTHWEST LAND BREEZE WINDS
KICK IN. SINCE NOT MUCH ELSE GOING ON...NOT MUCH ELSE TO SAY.

&&

.MARINE (TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT)...WILL ADJUST SCA SLIGHTLY
BUT MAINLY EXTENDED IT OUT OVER THE GULF TONIGHT. COULD HAVE SCA
END BEFORE 6 PM FOR THE BAYS/WATERWAYS BUT WILL JUST KEEP SCA
GOING TIL 6 PM (ALTHOUGH MAY DECIDE AT THE LAST MINUTE TO END IT
IF OBSERVATIONS CLEARLY INDICATE THAT WILL BE THE CASE. SCA FOR
WINDS AND SEAS EXPANDED UNTIL 3 AM FOR THE NEAR SHORE AND 5 AM FOR
THE OFFSHORE. LATER SHIFTS CAN ADJUST AS NEEDED. FLOW WEAKENS
DURING THE DAY FRIDAY...THEN BECOMES WEAK SOUTHERLY ON FRIDAY
NIGHT (MORE MODERATE OFFSHORE IN THE GULF). OVERALL NOT TOO BAD OF
A MARINE SITUATION ONCE TONIGHT IS OVER WITH.

&&

.LONG TERM (SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)...QUIET BEGINNING TO THE LONG
TERM FORECAST WITH DRIER AIR AND RIDGING OVER THE AREA. TEMPERATURES
WILL WARM INTO THE UPPER 70S TO MID 80S UNDER MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES
THIS WEEKEND. ONSHORE FLOW WILL INCREASE ACROSS THE REGION OVER THE
WEEKEND. MOISTURE GRADUALLY INCREASES BEGINNING OF NEXT WEEK...WITH
CLOUD COVERAGE INCREASING AGAIN ON MONDAY. THIS WILL HELP TO KEEP
TEMPERATURES SLIGHTLY COOLER ON MONDAY AND TUESDAY. THERE IS A
POTENTIAL FOR AN UPPER DISTURBANCE TO MOVE THROUGH THE REGION NEXT
WEEK. GFS CONTINUES TO BRING THIS DISTURBANCE MORE STRONGLY OVER THE
REGION...WHILE THE ECMWF IS WEAKER AND FURTHER TO THE SOUTH WITH IT.
EITHER WAY...ENOUGH MOISTURE IS EXPECTED OVER THE REGION TO SEE
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS BEGINNING OUT WEST
MONDAY NIGHT AND INCREASING TUESDAY.

SEE MORE DIVERGENCE IN THE EXTENDED FORECAST WRT WEDNESDAY AND
THURSDAY. GFS STILL SHOWS A DRY LINE PUSHING IN FROM THE WEST...WITH
SIGNIFICANTLY HIGHER TEMPS ESPECIALLY OUT WEST (HIGHS IN THE MID TO
UPPER 90S). THE ECMWF KEEPS SOUTHERLY FLOW AND TEMPS IN THE 70S
AREAWIDE. FOR THE TIME WILL RELY ON BLENDED GUIDANCE...AS BOTH
SOLUTIONS APPEAR STILL TOO EXTREME.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
CORPUS CHRISTI    48  77  54  78  60  /   0   0   0   0   0
VICTORIA          46  77  49  78  57  /   0   0   0   0   0
LAREDO            51  79  53  85  59  /   0   0   0   0   0
ALICE             48  79  50  82  57  /   0   0   0   0   0
ROCKPORT          51  73  55  75  64  /   0   0   0   0   0
COTULLA           47  79  51  83  56  /   0   0   0   0   0
KINGSVILLE        47  79  50  81  59  /   0   0   0   0   0
NAVY CORPUS       53  75  58  75  64  /   0   0   0   0   0

&&

.CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 5 AM CDT FRIDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING
     ZONES: WATERS FROM BAFFIN BAY TO PORT ARANSAS FROM 20 TO 60
     NM...WATERS FROM PORT ARANSAS TO MATAGORDA SHIP CHANNEL
     FROM 20 TO 60 NM.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR THE
     FOLLOWING ZONES: BAYS AND WATERWAYS FROM BAFFIN BAY TO PORT
     ARANSAS...BAYS AND WATERWAYS FROM PORT ARANSAS TO PORT
     O`CONNOR.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 3 AM CDT FRIDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING
     ZONES: COASTAL WATERS FROM BAFFIN BAY TO PORT ARANSAS OUT
     20 NM...COASTAL WATERS FROM PORT ARANSAS TO MATAGORDA SHIP
     CHANNEL OUT 20 NM.

&&

$$

GW/86...SHORT TERM
LK/84...LONG TERM




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