Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Corpus Christi, TX

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000
FXUS64 KCRP 282016
AFDCRP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CORPUS CHRISTI TX
316 PM CDT FRI AUG 28 2015

.SHORT TERM (TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT)...AN UPPER LEVEL HIGH
PRESSURE SYSTEM REMAINS CTRD OVR W TX WHILE LOW PRESSURE CONTS OVR
THE N GULF OF MEX. THIS IS RESULTING IN A NE FLOW ALOFT OVR E AND S
TX. MODELS PROG LIMITED MID/UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE TO CONTINUE TO MOV
S TO SW ACROSS THE ERN PORTIONS OF THE CWA THROUGH SAT. THIS WILL
LEAD TO A FEW/SCT MID/UPPER LEVEL CLOUDS THROUGH SAT...BUT OTHERWISE
REMAINING FAIRLY DRY WITH SFC DEWPOINTS REMAINING IN THE MID TO
UPPER 60S. THE LOWER DEWPOINTS/DRIER AIRMASS WILL LEAD TO ANOTHER
RELATIVELY COOL NIGHT WITH SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL TEMPS TONIGHT AND
SATURDAY. BY SAT NIGHT THE UPPER PATTERN SHIFTS W PLACING THE UPPER
LOW OVER THE REGION. AS A RESULT...THE LOW LEVEL FLOW STRENGTHENS
SLIGHTLY FROM THE SE AND BEGINS TO ADVECT LOW LEVEL MOISTURE INTO S
TX.  DEWPOINTS ARE PROGD TO INCREASE BACK INTO THE UPPER 60S TO LOW
70S ACROSS THE ERN CWA. COULD SEE PATCHY FOG LATE SAT NIGHT INTO
EARLY SUN MORNING ACROSS INTERIOR PORTIONS OF S TX. COULD SEE VERY
LIGHT FOG TONIGHT AS WELL...BUT VSBYS WILL REMAIN AOA 5SM THUS WILL
NOT MENTION IN THE ZONES FOR TONIGHT BUT WILL MENTION FOR SAT NIGHT
AS FOG HAS A BETTER CHC OF DVLPG WITH VSBYS OF 3SM OR HIGHER.

&&

.LONG TERM (SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)...THE GFS/ECMWF DETERMINISTIC
DEVELOP AN UPPER LOW OVER THE REGION AT THE BEGINNING OF THE PERIOD.
TO ACCOUNT FOR VARIATIONS IN TROUGH AXIS POSITION...WL RELY ON THE
GFS ENSEMBLE MEAN WHICH MAINTAINS THE AXIS OVER THE COAST SUNDAY
THROUGH TUESDAY BEFORE MOVG THE SYSTEM EASTWARD. GFS DETERMINISTIC
DEPICTS ONLY A MODEST INCREASE IN MSTR PER PWAT FIELD. OWING TO
FOREGOING MSTR/UPPER FORCING...AND GFS DETERMINISTIC LIFTED INDEX
FIELD...ANTICPATE ISOLD/SCT CONVECTION MONDAY/TUESDAY OVER THE ERN
CWA/MSA. WL REDUCE CONVECTION OVER CWA TO ISOLD WEDNESDAY-FRIDAY TO
ACCOUNT FOR EWD MOVEMENT OF THE UPPER TROUGH AXIS. ANTICIPATE MAX
HEAT INDEX VALUES OF 105F OR LESS. WAVEWATCH SOLN MAINTAINS LOW
SWELL HEIGHTS DRG THE PERIOD.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
CORPUS CHRISTI    69  93  74  92  76  /   0   0  10  10  20
VICTORIA          66  93  67  91  72  /   0   0   0  10  10
LAREDO            71  99  74 100  75  /   0   0   0   0  10
ALICE             66  95  69  96  72  /   0   0   0  10  10
ROCKPORT          73  91  78  89  80  /   0   0  10  10  20
COTULLA           68  98  72  98  71  /   0   0   0   0  10
KINGSVILLE        67  96  70  95  74  /   0   0  10  10  10
NAVY CORPUS       74  89  78  90  80  /   0   0  10  10  20

&&

.CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.

&&

$$

TE/81...SHORT TERM
WC/87...LONG TERM



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