Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Corpus Christi, TX

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FXUS64 KCRP 281106 AAA
AFDCRP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CORPUS CHRISTI TX
506 AM CST WED JAN 28 2015

.DISCUSSION...SEE 12Z AVIATION DISCUSSION.

&&

.AVIATION...MAIN ISSUE IS THE FOG...WHICH THE MOS GUIDANCE IS
HITTING HARD (1/4SM FG). BASED ON FORECAST 925 MB WINDS...AM NOT
GOING TO HIT THE FOG AS HARD AS MOS IS SHOWING...ESPECIALLY SINCE
BUFKIT AND NAM12 SOUNDINGS (ALONG WITH GFS SOUNDINGS) NOT SHOWING
THIS. WILL GO WITH IFR CONDITIONS...WITH VSBYS AS LOW AS 1SM AT
KVCT... 4SM/TEMPO 2SM AT KALI...AND 4SM/TEMPO 2SM AT KCRP (NO FOG
OR ISSUES AT KLRD). ALL CONDITIONS LOWER THAN VFR OCCURRING AOA
08Z...WITH SOME IFR CIGS AS WELL. OTHERWISE...VFR WITH LIGHT SSW
WINDS IN THE MORNING BECOMING MORE SSE IN THE AFTERNOON...WITH
SOME GUSTS AT KCRP AND KALI.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 236 AM CST WED JAN 28 2015/

SHORT TERM (TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY)...NOT MUCH TO WRITE HOME ABOUT
CONCERNING WEATHER THE NEXT THREE PERIODS...WITH THE MAIN ISSUE
BEING ANY FOG TONIGHT AND THURSDAY MORNING. SHOULD NOT BE AS WARM
TODAY AS IT WAS YESTERDAY...SINCE WINDS NEAR THE SURFACE AND
BOUNDARY LAYER SHOULD BE MORE ONSHORE THAN THEY HAVE BEEN (MAY START
OFF A BIT SOUTHWESTERLY BUT SHOULD NOT STAY SO FOR LONG). STILL AM
GOING TO GO MORE ON THE WARM SIDE OF GUIDANCE. THE MORE ONSHORE FLOW
SHOULD ALLOW FOR BETTER MOISTURE RETURN TODAY AND TONIGHT...HENCE
THE POTENTIAL FOR FOG. WILL NOT CHANGE PREVIOUS FORECAST ON FOG...AS
OVERALL AREA WHERE FOG WAS FORECAST LOOKS GOOD WHEN COMPARING WITH
FORECAST RH FIELDS. AGAIN GOING ON THE WARM SIDE OF GUIDANCE GIVEN
MODEL 2 METER SURFACE TEMPERATURES. MORE MOISTURE MEANS MORE CLOUDS
(BUT STILL GOING PARTLY CLOUDY) ON THURSDAY...HENCE TEMPERATURES ARE
EXPECTED TO BE A COUPLE OF DEGREES WARMER. FRONTAL BOUNDARY
APPROACHES AREA BUT SHOULD STAY TO THE NORTH. NO RAINFALL EXPECTED
AS MOISTURE FIELDS REMAIN VERY LIMITED AND FRONT NO CLOSE ENOUGH TO
WARRANT A MENTION OF RAIN.

MARINE (TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY)...GOOD BOATING WEATHER EXPECTED
WITH WINDS GENERALLY LIGHT. DEW POINTS CREEP UP TONIGHT AND COULD
GET TO WHERE SEA FOG WOULD BE AN ISSUE. HOWEVER...WINDS MAY NOT BE
STRONG ENOUGH TO GENERATE SEA FOG FORMATION. WILL HOLD OFF ON THE
MENTION OF FOG FOR NOW. NO RAINFALL EXPECTED.

LONG TERM (THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)...MODELS CONTINUE TO
SHOW A WEAK COLD FRONT THU NIGHT BRINGING COOLER TEMPS TO S TX.
MOISTURE WILL BE LIMITED SO KEPT ONLY SILENT 10 POPS FOR THU NIGHT.
THE SURFACE HIGH QUICKLY SHIFTS EAST ON FRI RESULTING IN EASTERLY
WINDS ACROSS S TX. MODELS PROG MOISTURE TO ADVECT N ALONG THE RIO
GRANDE AND ISENTROPIC UPGLIDE TO INCREASE FRI. IN ADDITION...THE
UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL SHIFT E AS AN UPPER LOW MOVES ACROSS BAJA CA.
THUS...KEPT THE SLIGHT CHC FOR THE WESTERN CWA FOR FRI. RAIN CHCS
INCREASE AND SPREAD E FRI NIGHT/SAT AS THE UPPER LOW APPROACHES THE
REGION AND PWATS INCREASE TO OVER 1 INCH. MODEL SOLNS BEGIN TO
DIVERGE THRU THE WEEKEND WITH THE PREFERRED ECMWF BEING SLIGHTLY
FASTER WITH A STRONG COLD FRONT ON SUNDAY. AS THE UPPER LOW SWINGS
E...RAIN CHCS DIMINSH FROM W TO E SUN THRU MON. CAA WILL LEAD TO
HIGHS ONLY IN THE 50S BY MON AND AROUND 40 DEGREES MON NIGHT/TUE
MORNING. ONSHORE FLOW RETURNS TUE ADVECTING THE MOISTURE AND WARMER
TEMPS BACK INTO S TX. AS FOR WINDS...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES WILL BE
POSSIBLE BEHIND THE STRONGER COLD FRONT ON SUNDAY/SUNDAY NIGHT.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
CORPUS CHRISTI    79  57  79  51  64  /   0   0   0  10  10
VICTORIA          79  54  77  49  60  /   0   0  10  10  10
LAREDO            83  58  81  55  67  /   0   0   0  10  20
ALICE             83  54  81  51  65  /   0   0   0  10  20
ROCKPORT          77  58  73  50  61  /   0   0   0  10  10
COTULLA           82  53  79  52  61  /   0   0   0  10  20
KINGSVILLE        81  55  81  52  65  /   0   0   0  10  20
NAVY CORPUS       76  60  75  54  63  /   0   0   0  10  10

&&

.CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.

&&

$$

GW/86...AVIATION





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