Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Corpus Christi, TX

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FXUS64 KCRP 281124
AFDCRP

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Corpus Christi TX
624 AM CDT SUN AUG 28 2016

.DISCUSSION...

See aviation discussion below for the 12Z TAFs.

&&

.AVIATION...

Patchy light fog and some low stratus have developed across a few
locations this morning. Am expecting brief MVFR conditions for
mainly ALI to VCT this morning...then generally VFR conditions the
remainder of the day. The exception will be in and near
shra/tsra`s. The best chance for convection is expected across the
VCT area with lower chances farther south and west. Rain chances
are expected to diminish this evening then increase once again
late tonight into early Mon morning.

&&

.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION... /Issued 351 AM CDT SUN AUG 28 2016/

SHORT TERM (Today through Monday)...

Increasing rain chances expected today and especially Monday when a
mid/upper level low meandering over HGX`s CWA slowly drifts toward
the middle TX coast. A sfc reflection of the low aloft will also
drift southwest providing low level convergence across mainly the
eastern CWA and over the waters. Models prog 2 inch PWATs to move
across the VCT Crossroads today then spread across the eastern CWA
through Monday. Therefore, went with chance pops across the east
with 10-20 pops across the west today, then spreading the higher
pops farther west on Monday with likely wording across the east.
Moderately unstable airmass may lead to some storms becoming strong
with heavy rainfall, especially if they are slow moving. However, am
not expecting any severe wx and the Storms Prediction Center has the
area in general thunder through the short term. The heaviest
rainfall through the next couple of days is predicted by the Weather
Prediction Center to be along the middle and upper TX coast. Based
on current rainfall forecasts, rainfall totals over the next
3 days are expected to be around 2 inches along the coast to less
than half of an inch across the Rio Grande Plains.

LONG TERM (Monday night through Saturday)...

The mid level low is expected to move to the middle Texas coast
Tuesday morning and continue near the area through Wednesday. There
are some slight placement discrepancies between the GFS and ECMWF
with the upper low, GFS offshore and ECMWF inland. Will lean toward
the ECMWF solution and continue to show likely PoPs for coastal
areas on Tuesday. Models are still in agreement that moisture depth
will increase with precipitable water values up to 2.2 inches
Tuesday and around 2 inches on Wednesday. Will keep chance PoPs of
40-50 percent going into Wednesday. Moisture gradually decreases
through the end of the week as the mid level low weakens. Will hold
on to slight chance PoPs over the coastal plains for Friday and
Saturday. Temperatures will be below normal to start the period but
rise to near normal levels by the end of the week.

As for Invest 99L, several models indicate this wave will form into
an area of low pressure as it emerges from the Florida Strait into
southeastern Gulf of Mexico Monday and possibly strengthen as it
moves northward toward the northeast Gulf of Mexico Wednesday and
Thursday. With the past performance of the models in mind with this
system, hesitant to gain confidence on this happening. The system is
expected to remain well to the east through the end of the period.

$$

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Corpus Christi    93  76  90  77  89  /  30  50  60  50  60
Victoria          89  74  88  75  89  /  50  60  60  40  50
Laredo            97  76  94  76  93  /  10  20  50  30  50
Alice             96  74  92  75  90  /  30  30  60  40  60
Rockport          90  78  90  78  90  /  40  60  60  50  60
Cotulla           95  75  91  75  92  /  20  20  50  30  50
Kingsville        95  75  91  76  89  /  30  40  60  40  60
Navy Corpus       90  78  89  79  88  /  30  60  60  60  60

&&

.CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...None.
GM...None.

&&

$$

TE/81...AVIATION



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