Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Corpus Christi, TX

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FXUS64 KCRP 180529 AAC

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Corpus Christi TX
1229 AM CDT Fri Aug 18 2017


See AVIATION discussion for 06Z TAFs.



Should have VFR conditions over the terminals. Could have some
TEMPO MVFR at KVCT and possibly KALI between 09Z and 14Z. The
previous TAF forecast only had MVFR at KVCT and decided to keep
that (not confident but will be consistent), and left it out at
KALI (where confidence is even lower). Reasoning is that boundary
layer showing some dry air advection in these locations overnight
which should preclude MVFR conditions. Other than that, will start
off with south or south-southeast winds this morning when more
southeast with the passing of the sea-breeze. Guidance indicates
winds will be a tad lower as surface high moves toward the NW
gulfmex, and this appears reasonable. Wind gusts should diminish
AOA 19/01Z except of course at KLRD where the winds will remain
elevated through the end of the terminal forecast.


.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION... /Issued 922 PM CDT Thu Aug 17 2017/


No major updates to tonight`s forecast. Decreased cloud cover
by a category across much of the area for this evening to account
for ongoing mainly clear skies. Still anticipating patchy to areas
of stratus to develop tonight as a nocturnal low level jet
develops. Made a few minor changes to hourly temps and dewpoints.
Otherwise, rest of the forecast is in good shape.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION... /Issued 649 PM CDT Thu Aug 17 2017/


Aviation discussion for 0Z TAF Updates


VFR conditions will prevail through the evening and into the
morning hours across much of South Texas. South to southeast winds
will persist and will stay gusty for the next few hours. The
strongest winds will subside across KALI, KCRP and KVCT by 3Z
with winds at KLRD remaining elevated for a bit longer. Patches to
areas of stratus may develop overnight as a southerly low level
jet develops leading to MVFR conditions being possible, especially
at KVCT. VFR conditions expected to prevail throughout the day
tomorrow along with southerly to southeasterly winds picking up
throughout the day.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION... /Issued 345 PM CDT Thu Aug 17 2017/


Current water vapor imagery shows drier air building westward
across the Middle Texas Coastal Waters and into South Texas this
afternoon. With the drier air, dewpoints are lower than yesterday
and max heat indices will remain below heat advisory criteria
late this afternoon. However, temperatures will remain hot, with
max temperatures in the lower triple digits out west and low to
mid 90s across eastern portions of the CWA. Due to the moderate
thermal gradient, breezy conditions with southeasterly winds will
continue through the remainder of the afternoon and will subside
later this evening. Southerly onshore flow will return overnight
allowing for low-level moisture to recover. A few clouds will be
possible along the coast overnight into tomorrow morning, but
given drier conditions skies will be mostly clear and low
temperatures will be a bit cooler than previous nights.

As the surface high, located over Gulf of Mexico, continues to
slowly move westward, subsidence leading to drier conditions will
persist into tomorrow. Morning clouds will be possible around the
Coastal Bend, but are expected to clear up by the early
afternoon. Temperatures will be similar to today, but with the
low-level moisture expected to mix out with the drier air aloft,
it will feel a bit cooler across South Texas tomorrow with heat
indices remaining below heat advisory criteria. Breezy conditions
will once again develop tomorrow afternoon with the strong
thermal gradient, but winds are expected to shift to a more
easterly component as the surface high moves west. Weak to
moderate onshore flow will return tomorrow overnight.

LONG TERM (Saturday through Thursday)...

The upper ridge will remain firmly in place over the region on
Saturday. With moisture depth below average over the western Gulf of
Mexico with precipitable water values from 1.5-1.7 inches, removed
mention of slight chance PoPs over the coastal waters Saturday into
Saturday night. TUTT low over the eastern Gulf of Mexico on Saturday
will steadily translate westward across the Gulf Sunday and Monday.
TUTT low is expected to move into the coastal waters on Monday. With
a steady increase in moisture, scattered convection will be possible
over the coastal waters into the coastal plains Monday. This will
repeat on Tuesday as the TUTT low moves inland into the Coastal
Bend. ECMWF is a bit slower than the GFS with TUTT low for
Wednesday/Thursday with former keeping a shear axis over the region
while the GFS moves low westward into Coahuila. Will keep slight
chance PoPs for the coastal plains Wednesday and broad brush slight
chance PoPs for the entire area for Thursday. Potential tropical
cyclone 9 east of the Lesser Antilles is expected to move west
across the Caribbean and potentially impact the Yucatan Peninsula
and Belize by Tuesday.


Corpus Christi    78  96  78  97  77  /  10  10  10  10  10
Victoria          77  99  76  98  76  /  10  10  10  10  10
Laredo            78 104  78 103  78  /  10  10   0  10  10
Alice             76 101  75 101  76  /  10  10  10  10  10
Rockport          81  95  81  94  80  /  10  10  10  10  10
Cotulla           76 103  76 103  77  /  10  10   0  10  10
Kingsville        77 100  77  99  77  /  10  10  10  10  10
Navy Corpus       81  94  81  93  81  /  10  10  10  10  10





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