Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Corpus Christi, TX

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036
FXUS64 KCRP 291621
AFDCRP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CORPUS CHRISTI TX
1121 AM CDT FRI APR 29 2016

.DISCUSSION...

LOW CLOUDS ARE WIDESPREAD ACRS THE CWFA THIS MORNING WITH SOME
CLEARING BEGINNING TO SPREAD INLAND OFF THE GULF. THIS HAS HELD
TEMPS BACK SEVERAL DEGREES AND HV MADE ACRS THE BOARD
ADJUSTMENTS DOWNWARD TO THE HOURLY GRIDS TO ACCOUNT. HAVEN`T
BACKED HIGHS OFF TOO MUCH THOUGH AS WE ARE STARTING TO SEE BREAKS
INLAND AND THERE ARE A LOT OF HOURS OF POTENTIAL HEATING LEFT.

12Z CRP SOUNDING WAS CAPPED BUT POTENTIALLY EXTREMELY UNSTABLE.
BEST POTENTIAL FOR THE CAP TO BREAK LOOKS TO BE OVER FAR NORTHERN
SECTIONS WHERE THE SPC HAS A SLIGHT RISK. ANYWHERE THE CAP BREAKS
THOUGH STORM DEVELOPMENT WILL BE EXPLOSIVE WITH CAPES NEAR 5000
J/KG AND A DECENT AMOUNT OF SHEAR. WE`LL BE RELEASING A SPECIAL
18Z SOUNDING TO ASSESS THE STATE OF THE CAP AS WELL AS TO CAPTURE
THE 60+ KNOT FLOW THAT HAS PERSISTED THIS MORNING A FEW THOUSAND
FEET UP. NO ADJUSTMENTS TO THE FORECAST IN TERMS OF POPS OR STORM
POTENTIAL WITH THE UPDATE.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 633 AM CDT FRI APR 29 2016/

DISCUSSION...SEE AVIATION SECTION FOR 12Z TAFS.

AVIATION...12Z CRP SOUNDING SHOWS THE LOW LEVEL SOUTHERLY FLOW
HAS INCREASED TO 35-40 KNOTS EARLY THIS MORNING AS LOW PRESSURE
DEEPENS OVER WEST TEXAS. LOW CLOUD/FOG SATELLITE LOOP SHOWS
STRATUS COVERING ALL OF SOUTH TEXAS. CEILINGS ARE GENERALLY MVFR
WITH IFR CEILINGS OVER THE COASTAL BEND...WITH MVFR VSBYS IN
FOG/HAZE. CEILINGS WILL LIFT TO 1500-2500 FEET BY 15-16Z WITH
WINDS INCREASING OVER THE COASTAL PLAINS. LEFT EXIT REGION OF THE
SUBTROPICAL JET WILL BE MOVING INTO THE VICTORIA CROSSROADS BY
LATE AFTERNOON. COULD SEE SCATTERED STRONG THUNDERSTORMS AFFECT
BEEVILLE TO VICTORIA FROM LATE AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING. LOW
CLOUDS WILL RETURN IN THE EVENING AND LOWER TO IFR OVERNIGHT.
COULD SEE REDEVELOPMENT OF CONVECTION DURING THE OVERNIGHT
HOURS OVER THE VICTORIA CROSSROADS TO NORTHERN COASTAL BEND.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 423 AM CDT FRI APR 29 2016/

SHORT TERM (TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY)...WATER VAPOR IMAGERY
SHOWS THE UPPER LOW NEAR THE FOUR CORNERS REGION EARLY THIS
MORNING. THE UPPER LOW/TROUGH WILL PIVOT NORTHEAST INTO
THE CENTRAL/SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS THIS AFTEROON WITH A SLIGHT
NEGATIVE TILT. AS A 25H JET STREAK OF 110 KNOTS SWINGS TO
THE NORTHEAST ACROSS WEST TEXAS THIS AFTERNOON...AN ACTIVE
SUBTROPICAL JET WILL MOVE ACROSS MEXICO INTO SOUTH TEXAS.
DIFLUENT FLOW ALOFT AND THE LEFT EXIT REGION OF THIS JET MAY
PROVIDE SOME ASSISTANCE FOR LIFT ACROSS SOUTH TEXAS TO WEAKEN THE
STRONG CAP OVER THE REGION. AIR MASS IS EXPECTED TO BECOME QUITE
UNSTABLE WITH MLCAPES 2500-3000 J/KG THIS AFTERNOON. SHEAR WILL
BE INCREASING THROUGH THE AFTERNOON TO 40-45 KNOTS IN THE 0-6 KM
LAYER. THIS WILL BE SUFFICIENT FOR RISK OF SEVERE STORMS. STORMS
ARE EXPECTED TO FORM NEAR DRYLINE OVER THE BRUSH COUNTRY AND
MOVE TO THE NORTHEAST INTO THE VICTORIA CROSSROADS FROM LATE
THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH THE EVENING. SPC HAS THE NORTHERN
COUNTIES OF THE FORECAST AREA WITHIN THE SLIGHT RISK AREA FOR
SEVERE STORMS. WILL MENTION THE POSSIBILITY OF SEVERE IN THESE
AREAS FOR THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING. SOUTHERN COUNTIES WERE NOT
INCLUDED DUE TO PROXIMITY TO STRONGER CAP. THE UPPER LOW MOVES
INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS SATURDAY BUT THE SUBTROPICAL JET WILL
REMAIN OVER SOUTH TEXAS. OUTFLOW BOUNDARY OR SURFACE TROUGH
IS EXPECTED TO SET UP OVER THE COASTAL PLAINS ON SATURDAY.
CONVERGENCE ALONG THIS BOUNDARY...INSTABILITY AND SUFFICIENT
SHEAR COULD LEAD TO STRONG/SEVERE STORMS OVER THE COASTAL
PLAINS SATURDAY.

MARINE...ONSHORE FLOW HAS BEEN A LITTLE SLOW TO INCREASE DURING
THE NIGHT. SOUTHERLY LOW LEVEL HAS INCREASED OVERNIGHT AND WILL
REMAIN 35-40 KNOTS OVER THE NORTHWEST GULF THROUGH THIS EVENING
THEN WEAKEN OVERNIGHT. EXPECT WINDS WILL INCREASE...BUOY 42002
200 NM EAST OF BROWNSVILLE HAS SOUTHEAST WINDS AT 25 KNOTS. THESE
STRONGER WINDS WILL LEAD TO INCREASING SEAS WITH HIGHER SEAS
REACHING THE NEAR SHORE WATERS BY THIS AFTERNOON. DELAYED ONSET
OF SCA FOR THE OFFSHORE WATERS UNTIL 11Z AND INITIATED SCA FOR
THE NEAR SHORE WATERS AT 17Z. WINDS AND SEAS WILL DIMINISH BY
EARLY SATURDAY MORNING.

TIDES...WAVE WATCH THREE MODEL SHOWS THE STRONGER WINDS OVER
THE NORTHWEST GULF OF MEXICO WILL LEAD TO INCREASING SWELLS
THAT WILL REACH THE MIDDLE TEXAS COAST LATER TODAY. WW3 SHOWS
SWELLS OF 7 TO 8 FEET WITH PERIOD OF 8 SECONDS TODAY. TIDE
LEVELS ARE AROUND 1 FOOT ABOVE EXPECTED. WITH THESE HIGHER SWELLS
MOVING INTO TODAY...EXPECT TIDE LEVELS WILL REACH OR SLIGHTLY
EXCEED 2 FEET MSL AROUND TIME OF HIGH TIDE. THIS WILL CONTINUE
INTO SATURDAY. EXTENDED THE COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY UNTIL SATURDAY
ALONG WITH THE HIGH RISK OF RIP CURRENTS FOR GULF FACING BEACHES.

LONG TERM (SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)...HUMID CONDITIONS WILL
CONTINUE SATURDAY NIGHT WITH THE NEAR SFC FLOW BECOMING NEARLY DUE
EASTERLY AS A SFC BOUNDARY APPROACHES FROM THE NORTH. APPROACH OF A
H5 S/W TROUGH DURING THE DAY SUNDAY MAY TRIGGER A FEW THUNDERSTORMS
ACROSS THE CWA...WITH THE GREATEST CHANCES ACROSS THE NE CWA WHERE
MOISTURE DEPTH IS PROG TO BE THE GREATEST. ANY STORMS THAT DEVELOP
WILL HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO BECOME STRONG GIVEN STEEP LAPSE RATES.
HOWEVER...FOR NOW HAVE ONLY CARRIED SLIGHT CHANCE TO LOW END CHANCE
POPS FOR SUNDAY GIVEN WARM H8 TO H7 THERMAL LAYER WHICH MAY SERVE AS
A LIMITING FACTOR. CONVECTIVE CHANCES LATE SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY
ARE PROG TO INCREASE SIGNIFICANTLY AS SURFACE FRONT PUSHES INTO THE
CWA. COMBINATION OF THE FRONT INTERACTING WITH AN ADDITIONAL AND
STRONGER H5 S/W TROUGH ADVECTING ACROSS THE REGION...H25 JET
OVERHEAD...AND HIGH DEEP LAYER MOISTURE VALUES /PWATS PROG TO RANGE
FROM 1.6 INCHES ALONG THE RIO GRANDE TO AROUND 2 INCHES ALONG THE
COAST/ SHOULD ALLOW FOR NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO
DEVELOP. LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL WILL BE POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY ACROSS
THE COASTAL PLAINS TO VICTORIA AREA. GIVEN EXPECTED SYNOPTIC
SETUP...SOME LOCATIONS MAY RECEIVE A FEW INCHES OF RAIN DURING THE
DAY.  SFC FRONT IS PROG TO PUSH SOUTH OF THE CWA BY LATE IN THE DAY
WITH RAIN CHANCES SHIFTING SOUTH AND EAST AT THAT TIME. ECMWF AND
CMC ARE SIGNIFICANTLY FASTER WITH FROPA AND STRONGER WITH POST
FRONTAL AIRMASS. HAVE LEANED TOWARDS THE COOLER AND DRIER FORECAST
SOLUTIONS FOR NEXT WEEK AND AM THEREFORE EXPECTING PLEASANT EARLY
MAY CONDITIONS BY THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK WITH DRY
CONDITIONS...CLEARING SKIES...MUCH LOWER HUMIDITY VALUES...AND BELOW
SEASONABLE TEMPS.

OF NOTE...PERSISTENT EASTERLY FLOW AND ASSOCIATED STRONG SWELL
PERIODS MAY CONTINUE A COASTAL FLOODING AND SIGNIFICANT RIP CURRENT
THREAT THROUGH THE SECOND HALF OF THE WEEKEND AND INTO MONDAY.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
CORPUS CHRISTI    87  76  88  75  88  /  30  30  40  10  20
VICTORIA          84  74  87  73  84  /  40  60  60  10  30
LAREDO            96  74  98  73  94  /  20  20  20  10  20
ALICE             91  74  92  74  88  /  30  30  40  10  20
ROCKPORT          85  76  86  76  87  /  30  40  50  10  20
COTULLA           92  71  94  72  89  /  30  30  20  10  20
KINGSVILLE        89  76  91  75  89  /  20  20  40  10  20
NAVY CORPUS       85  76  84  76  87  /  30  30  40  10  20

&&

.CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK THROUGH SATURDAY EVENING FOR THE FOLLOWING
     ZONES: ARANSAS...CALHOUN...KLEBERG...NUECES.

     COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM CDT SATURDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING
     ZONES: ARANSAS...CALHOUN...KLEBERG...NUECES...REFUGIO...SAN
     PATRICIO.

GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM CDT SATURDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING
     ZONES: WATERS FROM BAFFIN BAY TO PORT ARANSAS FROM 20 TO 60
     NM...WATERS FROM PORT ARANSAS TO MATAGORDA SHIP CHANNEL
     FROM 20 TO 60 NM.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR THE
     FOLLOWING ZONES: BAYS AND WATERWAYS FROM BAFFIN BAY TO PORT
     ARANSAS...BAYS AND WATERWAYS FROM PORT ARANSAS TO PORT
     OCONNOR.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM CDT SATURDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING
     ZONES: COASTAL WATERS FROM BAFFIN BAY TO PORT ARANSAS OUT
     20 NM...COASTAL WATERS FROM PORT ARANSAS TO MATAGORDA SHIP
     CHANNEL OUT 20 NM.

&&

$$

TJ/70...SHORT TERM



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