Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Corpus Christi, TX

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FXUS64 KCRP 011731
AFDCRP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CORPUS CHRISTI TX
1231 PM CDT SAT AUG 1 2015

.DISCUSSION...UPDATED FOR 18Z AVIATION.

&&

.AVIATION...MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD.
WILL SEE CU DEVELOPMENT THIS AFTERNOON...BUT EXPECT IT TO REMAIN
FEW-SCT. THERE IS A VERY SLIGHT CHANCE FOR SHOWERS THIS
AFTERNOON...BUT TOO SMALL TO MENTION IN TAFS. OVERNIGHT FOG IS A
QUESTION...BUT THINK IF ANYTHING DOES DEVELOP WILL BE BRIEF AND
NOT RESTRICT VISIBILITIES SIGNIFICANTLY. HAVE TEMPO MVFR GROUPS
FOR ALI AND VCT WITH LOW CONFIDENCE THAT IT WILL DEVELOP AT ALL AS
DRIER AIR IS MOVING INTO THE REGION.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 656 AM CDT SAT AUG 1 2015/

DISCUSSION...SEE AVIATION BELOW FOR 12Z TAF UPDATE.

AVIATION...PATCHY FOG OVER ALI HAS BEEN CAUSING VSBYS TO BOUNCE
AROUND LIFR/IFR THIS MORNING. ANTICIPATE FOG SHOULD QUICKLY CLEAR
WITHIN THE NEXT HOUR. VFR WILL THEN PREVAIL AT ALL TERMINALS
THROUGH MOST OF THE PERIOD. GENERALLY LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS CAN
BE EXPECTED. AN ISOLATED SHRA/TSTM WILL BE POSSIBLE TODAY...BUT
COVERAGE WILL BE TOO LIMITED TO WARRANT A MENTION AT TERMINALS AT
THIS TIME. PATCHY FOG WILL BE POSSIBLE OVER ALI ONCE AGAIN EARLY
SUNDAY MORNING...BRINGING MVFR VSBYS.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 412 AM CDT SAT AUG 1 2015/

SHORT TERM (TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY)...UPPER LVL RIDGE REMAINS
CENTERED OVER THE WESTERN AND SOUTH CENTRAL CONUS. BAND OF
ELEVATED MOISTURE WILL SHIFT FURTHER SOUTH OF THE REGION TODAY AS
DRIER AIR PUSHES INTO THE REGION. PWAT VALUES FORECAST TO FALL TO
1.2-1.4 INCHES OVER LAND BY SUNDAY. KEPT A MENTION OF A SLIGHT
CHANCE FOR SHRA OVER THE COASTAL AREAS THIS MORNING...WITH A
SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS FURTHER INLAND AS WELL THIS
AFTERNOON. TONIGHT INTO TOMORROW MOISTURE WILL BE LIMITED ENOUGH
THAT ONLY MENTIONABLE POPS WILL REMAIN OVER THE OFFSHORE GULF
WATER.

A RELATIVELY LIGHT...OFTEN VARIABLE FLOW WILL PREVAIL DURING THE
PERIOD. NOT MANY CHANGES FROM DAY TO DAY WITH THE TEMPERATURE
FORECAST. HOT CONDITIONS CONTINUE IN THE AFTERNOONS...THOUGH HEAT
INDEX VALUES ARE EXPECT TO REMAIN GENERALLY BELOW SPS CRITERIA.

LONG TERM (SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)...THE GFS ENSEMBLE MEAN
DEPICTS THE UPPER RIDGE BUILDING OVER THE REGION DRG THE PERIOD.
GFS/ECMWF DETERMINISTIC PREDICT CRP SOUNDINGS WITH PWAT VALUES NEAR
NORMAL MONDAY YET BELOW NORMAL THURSDAY/FRIDAY. OWING TO MSTR
CONSIDERATIONS...WL INTRODUCE 10 POPS WITHOUT PCPN OVER THE ERN
CWA/MSA MONDAY-WEDNESDAY...WITH LOWER POPS AFTERWARD. EXPECT
DEVELOPMENT OF PERSISTENT WEAK/MODERATE ONSHORE FLOW OWING TO
INCREASING UPPER ZONAL FLOW OVER THE ROCKIES...NORTH OF THE
RIDGE...RESULTING WL DEEPENING SFC TROUGH OVER THE LEE OF THE
ROCKIES. THE RISK FOR RIP CURRENTS WL REMAIN LOW DRG THE PERIOD
OWING TO WAVEWATCHIII OUTPUT. EXPECT MAXIMUM HEAT INDEX VALUES
GENERALLY 105F OR LESS OVER THE CWA. LOW MINIMUM RELATIVE HUMIDITY
VALUES OVER THE WRN CWA EACH DAY...YET WIND/FUEL DRYNESS NOT
EXPECTED TO BE CONDUCIVE TO ELEVATED/CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER
CONDITIONS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
CORPUS CHRISTI    76  97  77  95  78  /  10  10  10  10  10
VICTORIA          74  99  75  96  76  /  10  10  10  10  10
LAREDO            78 103  78 102  78  /  10  10   0  10   0
ALICE             74 100  76  98  76  /  10  10  10  10  10
ROCKPORT          79  94  80  91  81  /  10  10  10  10  10
COTULLA           75 103  76 101  77  /  10  10   0  10   0
KINGSVILLE        75  99  76  96  77  /  10  10  10  10  10
NAVY CORPUS       79  92  80  90  81  /  10  10  10  10  10

&&

.CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.

&&

$$

PZ/83...AVIATION


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