Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Corpus Christi, TX
FXUS64 KCRP 050936
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Corpus Christi TX
336 AM CST Mon Dec 5 2016
.SHORT TERM (Today through Tuesday)...
Upper low is near the Big Bend region as seen by water vapor loop.
Another vort lobe is near the Edwards Plateau. Drier air is
starting to get into the Rio Grande Plains and this trend for
drier air to move east today will continue. In short, will begin
to see rain chances diminish from west to east this morning, with
a few lingering showers (really stratiform rain) this afternoon
over the Northeast and waters. Northwest flow and diminishing
clouds this afternoon with some wrap-around moisture over the
northern areas in association with the Big Bend vort lobe. Think
that rain chances this afternoon will remain only over the NE
portions of the CWFA (and gulfmex), but will have to see as could
have some light sprinkles over the extreme Northern Brush Country
as well as the Northern Coastal Bend (already have 20 POPs
Victoria area). After this afternoon, should see rain chances near
zero tonight and Tuesday, as zonal/WSW flow occurs aloft and
moisture in the atmosphere decreases significantly. With clouds
lingering today, should see temperatures remain in the 60s, with
the potential for temperatures not to make it to 60 near the NE
where clouds will remain the longest. Generally staying on the
cool side of guidance today, but will go a tad warmer over the
extreme southern areas where enough breaks could get temperatures
up a bit more. Cool tonight with mainly 40s except closer to the
coast. Should have a nice warm up on Tuesday as NW boundary layer
winds bring adiabatic warming along with a good amount of
sunshine. Could see 80 degrees in Alice, at least that is what is
being forecast although the recent rain may keep temperatures down
a bit more.
.MARINE (Today through Tuesday)...Will maintain the SCA for the
nearshore waters until noon, but extend the SCA for the offshore
waters until 3 PM based on forecast wave heights. Winds are still
20 knots or more over the gulf waters and they should diminish
later this morning, along with the rain and isolated
thunderstorms. Offshore flow weakens tonight with weak to moderate
offshore flow on Tuesday.
.LONG TERM (Tuesday Night through Sunday)...
Tuesday night into Wed onshore flow develops and begins to usher low
level moisture back across S TX. The increased moisture and a
developing coastal trough should be sufficient for isol SHRA`s
across the eastern CWA and the coastal waters. A cold front and
associated high press will begin to push through the CWA Wed night.
Northerly winds are expected to become mod to strong across inland
areas and strong to very strong over the coastal waters by Thu
morning. The strong offshore flow is progged to persist through Thu
night then weaken through Fri. Precip chances with the cold front
will be confined to the eastern CWA with higher chances over the
waters where deeper moisture and strong low level convergence is
expected. Rain chcs are progged to end from NW to SE Thu night into
Fri. Strong cold air advection through the day Thu then weaken winds
and clrg skies will lead to the coldest night of the season Thu
night/Fri morning. Latest model solns suggest MN temps lowering to
just above freezing across the northern CWA. Onshore flow returns by
the weekend along with increasing moisture and temps and increasing
rain chances across the far eastern areas and coastal waters.
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Corpus Christi 63 50 78 58 75 / 30 0 0 10 20
Victoria 59 47 74 50 71 / 60 10 0 10 20
Laredo 65 48 79 54 74 / 10 0 0 10 10
Alice 64 48 80 53 76 / 30 0 0 10 20
Rockport 62 54 76 61 73 / 50 10 0 10 20
Cotulla 62 46 75 49 68 / 30 0 0 10 10
Kingsville 66 49 81 55 77 / 20 0 0 10 20
Navy Corpus 63 54 75 63 74 / 40 0 0 10 20
GM...Small Craft Advisory until noon CST today For the following
zones: Coastal waters from Baffin Bay to Port Aransas out
20 NM...Coastal waters from Port Aransas to Matagorda Ship
Channel out 20 NM.
Small Craft Advisory until 3 PM CST this afternoon For the
following zones: Waters from Baffin Bay to Port Aransas
from 20 to 60 NM...Waters from Port Aransas to Matagorda
Ship Channel from 20 to 60 NM.