Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Corpus Christi, TX

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000
FXUS64 KCRP 220934
AFDCRP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CORPUS CHRISTI TX
434 AM CDT FRI MAY 22 2015

.SHORT TERM (TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY)...A RELATIVELY QUIET SHORT
TERM PERIOD COMPARED TO WHAT WE SAW YESTERDAY AND WAS IS
POTENTIALLY TO COME LATER IN THE WEEKEND. HAVE ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED CONVECTION THIS MORNING STREAMING IN FROM THE GULF...AND
HELPED BY WEAK SURFACE FRONT STALLED NEAR THE COAST. THIS BOUNDARY
SHOULD WEAKEN AND LIFT NORTH TODAY. COMBINE THIS BOUNDARY...THE
ABUNDANT MOISTURE STILL IN PLACE AND A UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE AND
WE SHOULD GET SCATTERED CONVECTION TO DEVELOP ONCE AGAIN. NOT
REALLY EXPECTING ANYTHING ORGANIZED...BUT CERTAINLY HIGH RAINFALL
RATES WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH SOME OF THESE SHOWERS/STORMS AND COULD
LEAD TO ISOLATED FLASH FLOODING. THE FLASH FLOOD THREAT SHOULD BE
ISOLATED ENOUGH TODAY TO NOT WARRANT A WATCH.

EXPECT A DECREASE IN CONVECTION TONIGHT...BUT MOISTURE CONVERGENCE
STILL HIGH NEAR THE COAST AND SHOULD RESULT IN SOME STREAMER
SHOWERS DEVELOPING. CONVECTION IN MEXICO IS LIKELY ONCE
AGAIN...BUT SHOULD AGAIN STAY WEST OF THE RIO GRANDE.

STRONGER UPPER LOW MOVES THROUGH ON SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND WILL
LEAD TO ANOTHER ROUND OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. A FEW STRONG
STORMS WILL AGAIN BE POSSIBLE. FLASH FLOOD WATCH MAY BE NEEDED BY
SATURDAY AFTERNOON.

&&

.LONG TERM (SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)...DETERMINISTIC
NAM/GFS/ECMWF DEPICT SYNOPTIC SCALE LIFT (700-300MB Q-VECTOR
CONVERGENCE) AFFECTING THE CWA/MSA SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH LATE
MONDAY IN ASSOCIATION WITH A SERIES OF UPPER DISTURBANCES. THE GFS
DETERMINISTIC DEPICT WELL ABOVE NORMAL PWAT VALUES OVER AT LEAST THE
ERN CWA SATURDAY NIGHT/SUNDAY. THE COMBINATION OF COPIOUS MSTR/UPPER
FORCING AND A MEANDERING SFC BOUNDARY/TROUGH (GFS DETERMINISTIC AND
TO A LESSER EXTENT THE ECMWF) WL CONTRIBUTE TO SCT/NUMEROUS
CONVECTION SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT. STG 0-6KM VERTICAL
SHEAR MAY CONTRIBUTE TO STG/SEVERE CONVECTION SUNDAY...CONSISTENT
WITH SLGT RISK FOR SVR FROM SPC. FLASH FLOODING IS ANOTHER THREAT
OWING TO ALREADY WET/NEAR SATURATED SOIL CONDITIONS/LOW FLASH FLOOD
THRESHOLDS. A TRANSITON TO DRIER CONDITIONS ANTICIPATED FOR TUESDAY.
NEAR NORMAL PWAT VALUES AND THE PROXIMITY OF A SFC BOUNDARY/TROUGH
(GFS DETERMINISTIC AND TO A LESSER EXTENT THE ECMWF) SUGGEST AT
LEAST ISOLD CONVECTION WEDNESDAY/THURSDAY.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
CORPUS CHRISTI    86  74  85  77  84  /  40  20  30  40  60
VICTORIA          84  73  84  75  82  /  40  20  40  40  70
LAREDO            89  74  90  74  89  /  40  20  30  50  50
ALICE             87  74  86  76  87  /  40  10  40  40  60
ROCKPORT          85  76  85  78  82  /  40  30  30  40  60
COTULLA           87  73  87  72  86  /  40  20  50  60  60
KINGSVILLE        88  74  87  77  86  /  40  10  30  40  60
NAVY CORPUS       85  76  84  78  82  /  40  30  30  30  60

&&

.CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.

&&

$$

PZ/83...SHORT TERM
WC/87...LONG TERM


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