Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Corpus Christi, TX

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FXUS64 KCRP 090006
AFDCRP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CORPUS CHRISTI TX
606 PM CST MON FEB 8 2016

.DISCUSSION...UPDATED FOR 00Z AVIATION.

&&

.AVIATION...VFR CONDITIONS WILL OCCUR WITH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING
OVER THE REGION. EXPECT LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS OVERNIGHT WITH
LIGHT NORTHWESTERLY WINDS ON TUESDAY.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 251 PM CST MON FEB 8 2016/

SHORT TERM (TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT)...GUSTY NORTH WINDS
PREVAIL IN WAKE OF COLD FRONT THAT MOVED ACROSS SOUTH TEXAS THIS
MORNING. VERY DRY AIR CONTINUES FILTERING INTO THE REGION...AND A
RED FLAG WARNING CONTINUES ACROSS MUCH OF SOUTH TEXAS FOR THE REST
OF THE MID AFTERNOON. WINDS WILL GRADUALLY DECREASE THIS EVENING
AS HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES FURTHER SOUTH OVER THE REGION. HIGH
CIRRUS LINGER OVER SOUTH TEXAS THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH THE EARLY
MORNING. TEMPERATURES WILL FALL TO WELL BELOW NORMAL TONIGHT.
WINDS WILL BECOME MORE WESTERLY TO NORTHWESTERLY TOMORROW...AND
WITH MORE SUNSHINE TOMORROW AFTERNOON EXPECT HIGHS TO WARM INTO
THE UPPER 60S ALONG THE COAST TO LOWER 70S INLAND. MOISTURE WILL
START TO SLOWLY RETURN TO THE COASTAL BEND AS WINDS SWING AROUND
TO THE SOUTH AT TIMES OVERNIGHT TUESDAY...AND LOWS WILL BE A BIT
WARMER.

MARINE...A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WILL REMAIN IN EFFECT ACROSS THE
OFFSHORE GULF WATERS THROUGH THIS EVENING. WINDS AND SEAS WILL
GRADUALLY SUBSIDE AS HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES FURTHER SOUTH OVER THE
REGION TONIGHT.

FIRE WEATHER...A RED FLAG WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR MOST OF
SOUTH TEXAS (WITH THE EXCEPTION OF THE RIO GRANDE PLAINS AND
PORTIONS OF THE NORTHERN BRUSH COUNTRY) THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON.
DEWPOINTS CONTINUE TO FALL OVER THE REGION IN WAKE OF A COLD FRONT
THAT PASSED THIS MORNING. GUSTY WINDS AND LOW RELATIVE HUMIDITY
VALUES WILL KEEP CRITICAL FIRE DANGER CONDITIONS ACROSS THE REGION
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. WINDS WILL GRADUALLY DIMINISH THIS
EVENING...DECREASING THE RISK FOR FIRE DANGER.

LONG TERM....LONG TERM (WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY)...QUIET WEATHER
WILL CONTINUE FOR SOUTH TEXAS THROUGH THE WEEKEND WITH THE UPPER
RIDGE PERSISTING OVER THE ROCKIES AND THE UPPER TROUGH OVER THE
EASTERN UNITED STATES. SHORT WAVE TROUGH WILL DIVE SOUTHEAST
THROUGH THE UPPER MIDWEST INTO THE OHIO VALLEY FRIDAY INTO
SATURDAY WITH ANOTHER SURGE OF POLAR AIR MOVING SOUTHWARD ALONG
THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY. THIS HIGH PRESSURE WILL SURGE
SOUTHWARD WITH FRONT MOVING INTO THE REGION FROM THE NORTHEAST ON
SATURDAY. AFTER A WARMING TREND THROUGH THE WEEK...TEMPERATURES
WILL BE COOLER OVER THE WEEKEND. COULD SEE SCEC CONDITIONS OVER
THE COASTAL WATERS SATURDAY NIGHT. EXPECT INCREASE IN CLOUD COVER
FOR SUNDAY AS ONSHORE FLOW INCREASES. A SHORT WAVE TROUGH WILL BE
MOVING SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS SUNDAY AND INTO THE
LOWER MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY MONDAY PUSHING ANOTHER WEAK FRONT
INTO THE REGION MONDAY. MOISTURE STILL LOOKS MARGINAL AND WILL
KEEP THE FORECAST DRY FOR SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
CORPUS CHRISTI    38  71  45  75  52  /   0   0   0   0   0
VICTORIA          35  68  40  73  47  /   0   0   0   0   0
LAREDO            42  74  44  80  52  /   0   0   0   0   0
ALICE             37  74  41  79  49  /   0   0   0   0   0
ROCKPORT          41  68  48  70  53  /   0   0   0   0   0
COTULLA           37  73  41  79  48  /   0   0   0   0   0
KINGSVILLE        38  72  41  78  49  /   0   0   0   0   0
NAVY CORPUS       47  68  49  70  56  /   0   0   0   0   0

&&

.CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT CST TONIGHT FOR THE
     FOLLOWING ZONES: WATERS FROM BAFFIN BAY TO PORT ARANSAS
     FROM 20 TO 60 NM...WATERS FROM PORT ARANSAS TO MATAGORDA
     SHIP CHANNEL FROM 20 TO 60 NM.

&&

$$

PZ/83...AVIATION


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