Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Kansas City/Pleasant Hill, MO
FXUS63 KEAX 072315
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Kansas City/Pleasant Hill MO
515 PM CST Wed Dec 7 2016
Issued at 352 PM CST WED DEC 7 2016
Our light snow event is just about over. The last vestiges of the
area of snow will exit our far southern counties by 00z. Despite
liquid to snow ratios of 16-20:1 little if any additional
accumulation is expected.
Otherwise, after this snow moves through the main theme for the
foreseeable future, with a brief interlude of warming on Saturday,
is much below average temperatures through at least the middle of
next week. We`re looking at two surges of cold Canadian air with the
first push already nosing into the CWA. A 1048mb high will result in
temperatures 15-20 degrees normal. The coldest airmass since last
winter will send low temperatures for Friday morning into the single
digits with sub-zero wind chills over northern MO.
Pseudo fast zonal flow aloft and two progressive systems will make
timing of any precipitation worthy features difficult. That plus a
lack of agreement in the medium range models favor using the model
blend. The first upper system will generate downstream lee side
troughing across the Central Plains and warm air advection on
Saturday. The ECMWF is slower and further south generating
widespread precipitation Sunday/Sunday night while the GFS is bone
dry. Given how the ECMWF is radically different from its previous
run will discount it and side more towards a drier solution.
The second surge of very cold air will arrive for the first part of
next week. While both the ECMWF and GFS advertise cold air advection
next week the current forecast favors a more blended approach and
thus mutes the colder ECMWF. Siding only with the ECMWF would
produce temperatures a couple categories colder.
.Aviation...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Thursday Evening)
Issued at 515 PM CST WED DEC 7 2016
VFR through the period. Dry conditions with midlevel clouds clearing
terminal space in the next few hours.