Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Kansas City/Pleasant Hill, MO

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000
FXUS63 KEAX 232013
AFDEAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
313 PM CDT Tue Sep 23 2014

.SHORT TERM...(This Evening through Thursday Night)
Issued at 313 PM CDT TUE SEP 23 2014

Persistent showers and isolated thunderstorms over northeast
Kansas and southeast Nebraska continues to be driven by low-level
warm air advection associated with upper level low moving through the
northern US.  Thus far the activity has had a difficult time making
it into western Missouri as much of the forecast area continues to
be dominated by low-level dry air and surface ridging.  The activity
will likely make some additional progress eastward into far
northwest Missouri late this afternoon and this evening but much of
the forecast area should remain dry...especially east of interstate
35.

To varying degrees the short range models are in agreement in
rotating the upper level low into the Great Lakes region and then
taking a piece of this energy and retrograding it back over the
forecast area by the end of the week.   Although this pattern is
somewhat atypical it is not expected to have a huge impact on the
sensible weather, except for possibly some increase cloud cover.
At the surface sprawling high pressure centered over the eastern US
should keep the lowest layers of the atmosphere fairly dry and
precipitation chances low into the end of the work week.

With surface flow generally out of the south, a slow warming trend
is expected over the next few days. Afternoon temperatures generally
in the middle 70s on Wednesday should warm to around 80 by Thursday.


.LONG TERM...(Friday through Tuesday)
Issued at 313 PM CDT TUE SEP 23 2014

A broad upper ridge east of the Rockies will be hold in place until
the start of next week. The closed upper low currently over NE/SD
and caught under this upper ridge is expected to survive in a
weakened and disorganized state as it reaches the western Great
Lakes at the start of this period. While the medium range models
typically have issues resolving the evolution of such features they
have been consistent in retrograding the remnants of this system to
the southwest and back into MO over the weekend. Most likely there
will be adjustments made by the models in future runs. Lacking a
surface boundary and minimal upper support/boundary layer moisture
what`s left of this system will have a hard time generating anything
more than isolated showers, so will leave the forecast dry until
next week. Persistence may be the best temperature forecast as
little if any warm air advection is noted within the boundary
layer.

The next best chance for any appreciable rain should hold off until
Monday night or Tuesday. Even then the rain chances are low end
chance PoPs due to model differences/uncertainty in handling a
shortwave trough that lifts northeast through the Northern/Central
High Plains.


&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Wednesday Afternoon)
Issued at 1220 PM CDT TUE SEP 23 2014

Mainly VFR conditions expected through this forecast cycle. Shower
activity associated with upper trough rotating through northern
Plains expected to mainly stay north and west of terminal sites. If
any precipitation does make it into the area the most favorable time
would be after 00z. The current mention of VCSH has this covered well.


&&

.EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Mitchell
LONG TERM...MJ
AVIATION...Mitchell





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