Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Kansas City/Pleasant Hill, MO

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000
FXUS63 KEAX 241837
AFDEAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Kansas City/Pleasant Hill MO
137 PM CDT Sun Sep 24 2017

.Discussion...
Issued at 126 PM CDT SUN SEP 24 2017

Today will serve as day 6 of unseasonably high surface temperatures,
generally 10 degrees above normal through the ongoing streak. The
good news is that this trend will begin to erode heading into the
mid-week, with a secondary cooling trend possible by the late
week. For the remainder of the day, ample warm advection will once
again force afternoon temperatures into the upper 80s across the
area. Increased dew point values in the upper 60s will send heat
indices into the low to mid 90 degree range. Deep moisture
advection across the Southern to Central Plains areas ahead of a
deepening upper trough has fueled widespread showers/storms across
much of western Kansas and central Nebraska. This activity should
remain outside the local area this afternoon as broad ridging
lifts north over the eastern CONUS, steering precipitation
generally along a southwest to northeast axis along central Kansas
and southeastern Nebraska. However, weak converging wind fields
within a pocket of building instability across the eastern CWA
will present the chance of isolated storms this afternoon, before
quickly tapering off near sunset.

By Monday, the active pattern upstream will begin to approach the
area and will bring not only a return of precipitation chances,
but a cooling trend that will bring temps to near-seasonal
values. Initially, the eastward propagating upper jet ahead of the
trough will provide broad-scale ascent for scattered storms
through much of Monday. However, coverage will remain relatively
limited to areas across northwest Missouri, coincident with the
upper jet. Widespread cloud cover is expected across the entire
CWA, however, which will help to bring temperatures down slightly
compared to previous days, generally in the mid 80s. It`s not
until Monday night through Tuesday that the associated cold front
will push through the area and provide sufficient ascent for
widespread showers and storms. Rain totals will be limited to a
quarter to half an inch for most areas, though may approach an
inch over northwest Missouri, where multiple storm chances are
expected. Severe weather potential continues to appear limited by
weak instability values supportive of deep convection, along with
marginal deep layer shear.

By Wednesday, the cold front will have shifted into southern
Missouri, bringing afternoon highs down to the low to mid 70s for
the remainder of the week. Continuing to monitor the potential for a
secondary cooling trend by the late week as the EC continues to
depict a deepening trough centering over the Great Lakes Region,
which may push overnight lows well below normal heading into the
weekend. For now, will maintain seasonal values, though will be
worth watching as the late week approaches.


&&

.Aviation...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Monday Afternoon)
Issued at 1210 PM CDT SUN SEP 24 2017

VFR conditions will continue through the forecast period with
surface winds remaining steady out of the south southeast between
5-10 kts. By Monday morning, mid to upper level cloud cover will
build ahead of the next storm system, though precipitation should
hold off until Monday afternoon at the earliest, with chances
increasing by Monday night into Tuesday.


&&

.EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&

$$

Discussion...Welsh
Aviation...Welsh



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