Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Kansas City/Pleasant Hill, MO

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FXUS63 KEAX 242348
AFDEAX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Kansas City/Pleasant Hill MO
648 PM CDT WED AUG 24 2016

.Discussion...
Issued at 327 PM CDT WED AUG 24 2016

Well-advertised cold front is currently draped across southeastern NE
into west-central IA, aiding in blossoming up convection. Out ahead
of the frontal boundary, residing within the warm sector is this
forecast area. Despite showers and cloud cover that has persisted
throughout much of the day, plentiful instability is available and
coincides with increasing 0-6km shear values. Additionally, ample
moisture has been pooling in with PWATs approaching 2 inches, perhaps
exceeding the 2 inch mark by later this evening. LL lapse rates have
been much better today as compared to yesterday across the southern
half of the forecast area. To bring it all together, severe threat
looks to be on track to pan out this afternoon into the evening hours
with the primary hazard continuing to be gusty to damaging winds.
Hail and perhaps a brief tornado cannot be ruled out, with hail found
in any stronger storm that may develop and be able to maintain a
decently organized updraft.

As the sun sets and diurnal heating is lost, the severe threat could
persist into the late evening hours but overall, the event will
transition into more of a hydro situation that bears watching. As
aforementioned, PWAT values are more than sufficient to allow for
efficient rain producers and combining the available moisture with
training of storms yields the opportunity for locations to experience
flooding issues, despite the relatively high flash flood guidance for
many locations. Parallel flow riding over the front as it slows and
eventually stalls will allow for continued firing of convection over
the same locations tonight. Models have been trending further
southward with the bullseye and given the current observational
trends, have agreed with this assessment, thereby prompting the Flash
Flood Watch to be expanded to include the KC metro area. Much of the
main activity should diminish by sunrise Thursday as the nocturnal
LLJ winds down, although showers and storms may very well persist
into the mid-morning hours.

For the remainder of the forecast period, it continues to remain
unsettled looking with perhaps another round of moderate to heavy
rainfall to happen tomorrow night. Ridging to the south and east is
allowing for perturbations to ride its periphery right across the
local region and southerly to southwesterly flow to allow for a
continued source of moisture advecting in. Temperatures throughout
the rest of the week into next week look to remain near normal for
this time of year with the coolest day forecast for Friday behind the
front that`ll wash out to the south of the area.

&&

.Aviation...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Thursday Evening)
Issued at 645 PM CDT WED AUG 24 2016

Expecting a large area of strong convection with heavy rains to
affect northern and west central MO and eastern KS this evening into
early Thursday morning. As the storms congeal expect widespread MVFR
ceilings/visibilities with the stronger storms as well as brief
periods of IFR ceilings. The convection should weaken as it exits
into northeast and east central MO by the pre-dawn hours.

Widespread VFR ceilings likely in the 6-8K ft range should govern
most of the morning into the afternoon hours with scattered
convection ramping up over east central KS and west central MO during
the latter portion of the afternoon.

&&

.EAX Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
KS...Flash Flood Watch through Thursday morning for KSZ025-102>105.

MO...Flash Flood Watch through Thursday morning for MOZ001>008-
     011>017-020>025-028>033-037.

&&

$$

Discussion...lg
Aviation...MJ


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