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000
FXUS65 KFGZ 190328
AFDFGZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FLAGSTAFF AZ
830 PM MST SAT MAY 18 2013

.SYNOPSIS...
A PAIR OF WEAK WEATHER DISTURBANCES WILL CROSS NORTHEAST ARIZONA
THROUGH MONDAY. THESE SYSTEMS WILL BRING BREEZY AFTERNOON WINDS AND
ISOLATED SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS NORTH OF INTERSTATE 40. HIGH
TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN BELOW NORMAL THROUGH MONDAY THEN A WARMING
TREND STARTS TUESDAY.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVING EAST THROUGH THE FOUR CORNERS REGION
HAS PRODUCED A FEW SHOWERS ACROSS THE FOUR CORNERS REGION THIS
AFTERNOON. THESE INSTABILITY SHOWERS WILL DIMINISH THROUGH THE
EVENING HOURS AS THE GROUND COOLS OFF STABILIZING THE AIR MASS. ON
SUNDAY...EXPECT DRIER CONDITIONS WITH THE SLIGHTEST CHANCES FOR A
HIGH BASED ISOLATED SHOWER OR TWO PERSISTING OVER THE FOUR CORNERS.

MONDAY AND TUESDAY...A PATTERN CHANGE IS STORE AS COOL AND DRY
NORTHERLY FLOW ALOFT MONDAY BECOMES LIGHT WESTERLY BY TUESDAY NIGHT.
TEMPERATURES WILL WARM A FEW DEGREES STARTING TUESDAY WITH LIGHT
AFTERNOON WINDS EXPECTED.

WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...MODELS SHOW ANOTHER LARGE PACIFIC LOW
WILL SETTLE OVER THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST DURING THIS PERIOD. NORTHERN
ARIZONA WILL HAVE A DRY BUT STRENGTHENING SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT. THIS
FLOW WILL ENSURE ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND BREEZY AFTERNOON
WINDS. CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER THRESHOLDS COULD BE EXCEED THURSDAY AND
FRIDAY AFTERNOONS...STAY TUNED.

&&
.AVIATION...FOR THE 06Z PACKAGE...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH
THE 24 HR PERIOD. AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR AMENDMENTS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE ACROSS NORTHERN
AZ THROUGH SUNDAY WITH INCREASES IN AFTERNOON CLOUDS...AND ISOLATED
MAINLY DRY SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO NORTHEAST ARIZONA.  MODERATE
NORTHWEST FLOW DEVELOPS TONIGHT AND CONTINUES THROUGH SUNDAY...WITH
BREEZY WEST WINDS SUNDAY AFTERNOON.

TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...STRONG LOW PRESSURE TROUGH TO THE
NORTHWEST OF THE AREA WILL CREATE BREEZY CONDITIONS WITH LOW
AFTERNOON HUMIDITIES. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL RUN 3-5 DEGREES ABOVE
NORMAL. HAINES VALUES WILL RUN FROM MODERATE TO HIGH MAINLY FROM THE
MOGOLLON RIM NORTHWARD. DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING HOURS
ON WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY WINDS AND HUMIDITIES WILL COME CLOSE TO
CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS.

&&


$$


.FGZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

PUBLIC.........BOHLIN/DL
AVIATION.......BOHLIN
FIRE WEATHER...TC

FOR NORTHERN ARIZONA WEATHER INFORMATION VISIT WEATHER.GOV/FLAGSTAFF