Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Flagstaff, AZ

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FXUS65 KFGZ 311623

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Flagstaff AZ
923 AM MST TUE MAY 31 2016

.SYNOPSIS...Just enough moisture will linger through Wednesday for
a chance of afternoon showers or thunderstorms, capable of gusty
winds but little in the way of rainfall. Much warmer weather is
expected from Thursday through the weekend, with summer-like
temperatures 10 to 15 degrees above normal.


.DISCUSSION...An upper level low pressure system will bring a few
high based showers and thunderstorms to northern Arizona today.
These high based showers have the potential to produce erratic
gusty winds near the ground.

Expect a strong warming trend starting on Wednesday as a high
pressure ridge builds into Arizona from the west. Strong and gusty
southwest winds are possible by next week Monday.

The morning forecast grids look good, no updates.


.PREV DISCUSSION /231 AM MST/...The weak upper low located
centered over south- central Arizona will drift southeastward
today into Sonora Mexico. Isolated high-based showers and a few
thunderstorms developed Monday on the northwest side of this low
in northwest Arizona. This favored area of development will shift
to areas along the Mogollon Rim and White Mountains this afternoon
and evening, where scattered high-based showers and thunderstorms
are expected. Storm motion today will be toward the southwest
which could push a few storms off the rim into northern Gila and
portions of Yavapai County later in the afternoon/evening. With
surface dewpoints in the teens/20s and high storm bases, gusty
winds to 40+ mph and a few lightning strikes will be the main
threat with the convective activity today.

Shower and thunderstorm chances gradually decrease Wednesday and
Thursday as the low moves away from the state and high pressure
takes hold across the region. Thursday through the weekend, still
looks like we will see the hottest temperatures so far this year
with high temperatures 10-15 degrees above average for early June.
There a some indications that the ridge could shift east by next
Monday as low pressure approaches. This would cause gusty
southwest winds and slightly cooler temperatures, though
confidence in this pattern remains low this far out.


.AVIATION...For the 18Z Package...Expect another round of high-based
storms, mainly along and south of a Grand Canyon to Window Rock
line. Erratic surface winds gusts to 35 knots are possible in the
vicinity of storms or virga. Otherwise, light surface winds.
Storms diminishing after 02z. Aviation discussion not updated for
TAF amendments.


.FIRE WEATHER...Low pressure will move across Arizona today,
with scattered and high based showers and thunderstorms primarily
across the Mogollon Rim and White Mountains. On Wednesday, the low
moves into New Mexico, but lingering moisture will allow for high
based storms and showers primarily across Apache county. Gusty
outflow winds should be expected from thunderstorms.

Thursday through Saturday...The threat for high-based convection
will persist Thursday, though coverage will be isolated. Daytime
temperatures will climb to the hottest so far this year from
Thursday through Saturday.

Gusty southwest winds are possible next Monday with warm and dry
conditions in place.






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