Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Flagstaff, AZ

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000
FXUS65 KFGZ 301009
AFDFGZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FLAGSTAFF AZ
300 AM MST TUE JUN 30 2015

.SYNOPSIS...MONSOON MOISTURE WILL REMAIN IN PLACE ACROSS NORTHERN
ARIZONA INTO NEXT WEEK WITH A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
EACH DAY.

&&

.DISCUSSION...OVER THE COMING WEEK HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO
WOBBLE ABOUT THE WESTERN STATES WITH MONSOON MOISTURE REMAINING IN
PLACE ACROSS NORTHERN ARIZONA.

FOR TODAY...HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN CENTERED OVER UTAH. ANOTHER
ROUND OF STORMS WILL DEVELOP OVER THE MOUNTAINS OF NORTHERN ARIZONA
THEN MOVE TO THE WEST TO SOUTHWEST. STORMS WILL BE MOST NUMEROUS
FROM THE MOGOLLON RIM SOUTHWARD. A FEW STORMS THAT MOVE INTO YAVAPAI
AND GILA COUNTIES COULD PRODUCE WIND GUSTS IN EXCESS OF 60 MPH FROM
MID AFTERNOON THROUGH THE EARLY EVENING. LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN, CLOUD
TO GROUND LIGHTNING AND HAIL WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE WITH ANY STORMS.
PLAN YOUR DAY ACCORDINGLY.

FOR WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN CENTERED
OVER THE GREAT BASIN. THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE TO BE MOST
NUMEROUS FROM THE MOGOLLON RIM SOUTHWARD WITH ACTIVITY MORE ISOLATED
OVER THE NORTHEAST PORTION OF THE STATE. A FEW STRONG TO SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS WILL CONTINUE
TO BE A THREAT, ESPECIALLY OVER YAVAPAI AND GILA COUNTIES.

FROM SATURDAY ONWARD...MODELS IN GOOD AGREEMENT IN SHOWING A SHIFT
OF THE HIGH PRESSURE CENTER EASTWARD TO OVER NEW MEXICO AND
COLORADO. THE SHIFT IS MAINLY IN RESPONSE TO A DEVELOPING TROUGH
OVER THE EASTERN PACIFIC. THE RESULTING FLOW ALOFT WOULD TURN
SOUTHERLY UNDER THIS PATTERN. AS A RESULT, THE AREA OF MOST STORM
ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO SHIFT, EXTENDING FROM THE MOGOLLON RIM
NORTHWARD. A DOWNTURN IN ACTIVITY SOUTH OF THE MOGOLLON RIM. WE`LL
SEE.

&&

.AVIATION...FOR THE 12Z PACKAGE...PRIMARILY VFR CONDITIONS FOR THE
NEXT 24 HOURS ACROSS NORTHERN AZ. SCT-BKN200 THEN AFT
17Z...INCREASING COVERAGE OF SHRA / TSRA DEVELOPING FIRST ALONG THE
HIGH TERRAIN AND THEN MOVING INTO THE VALLEYS. STORM MOTION TODAY IS
TOWARDS THE WEST...MVFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE IN STRONGER CELLS.
AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR TAF AMENDMENTS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...THE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN OVER THE
GREAT BASIN THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD...WITH SCATTERED AFTERNOON
AND EVENING THUNDERSTORMS.

THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...LITTLE CHANGE IN THE OVERALL
PATTERN...WITH SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED EACH DAY.

&&

.FGZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

PUBLIC...MCCOLLUM
AVIATION...MAS
FIRE WEATHER...MAS

FOR NORTHERN ARIZONA WEATHER INFORMATION VISIT
WEATHER.GOV/FLAGSTAFF



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