Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Flagstaff, AZ

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000
FXUS65 KFGZ 111553
AFDFGZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FLAGSTAFF AZ
850 AM MST FRI JUL 11 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
FOR TODAY AND SATURDAY...EXPECT SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
OVER HIGHER TERRAIN FROM FLAGSTAFF EASTWARD AND ISOLATED STORMS
ELSEWHERE. STARTING SUNDAY...SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE
SHOULD INCREASE AS ADDITIONAL MOISTURE MOVES INTO THE REGION.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
SHORT TERM FORECAST IS IN GOOD SHAPE WITH NO UPDATES PLANNED.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION 331 AM. FOR TODAY AND SATURDAY...WATER VAPOR
IMAGERY INDICATES THAT A REGION OF DRIER MID LEVEL AIR HAS WORKED
ITS WAY ACROSS THE WESTERN PORTIONS OF NORTHERN ARIZONA. THIS
SLIGHTLY DRIER AIR...COUPLED WITH A FEW DEGREES OF MID LEVEL
WARMING...SHOULD CAUSE A NOTICEABLE DECREASE IN CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY
FOR MOST LOCATIONS WEST OF FLAGSTAFF. ELSEWHERE..EXPECT ANOTHER
ROUND OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FIRST FORMING OVER HIGHER
TERRAIN...AND THEN MIGRATING TO THE NORTH-NORTHEAST INTO LOWER
TERRAIN AREAS. IN ADDITION...THE DRIER AIR MASS WILL ALLOW DAYTIME
TEMPERATURES TO WARM BY A FEW DEGREES.

FOR SUNDAY ONWARD...MODELS INDICATE MOISTURE WILL BE ON THE
INCREASE AS LOWER LEVEL SOUTHERLY FLOW DRAWS ADDITIONAL MOISTURE
NORTHWARD FROM THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA. THIS WILL LEAD TO INCREASED
CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS EACH DAY THROUGH AT LEAST
MID WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...FOR THE 18Z PACKAGE...SCT SHRA/TSRA DEVELOPING THIS
AFTERNOON...INITIALLY OVER THE HIGH TERRAIN THEN MOVING INTO LOWER
ELEVATIONS LATER THIS AFTERNOON OR EVENING. EXPECT A MARKED DECREASE
IN COVERAGE TODAY ACROSS NORTHWEST AZ WHERE ACTIVITY WILL BE MORE
ISOLATED. BRIEF MVFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE IN HEAVIER SHOWERS.
CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY DIMINISHING AROUND 03Z. AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT
UPDATED FOR AMENDMENTS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...A SLIGHTLY DRIER AIR MASS
WILL MOVE INTO NORTHERN ARIZONA FROM THE NORTHWEST. THIS WILL BRING
A DECREASE IN CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE WESTERN
PORTIONS OF THE STATE WITH ONLY ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.
ACROSS THE EAST...EXPECT SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS EACH
DAY.

MONDAY AND TUESDAY...MOISTURE WILL BE ON THE INCREASE AND CONVECTIVE
ACTIVITY WILL INCREASE ACROSS NORTHERN ARIZONA.

&&

.FGZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

PUBLIC.........DL /RR
AVIATION.......MCS
FIRE WEATHER...DB

FOR NORTHERN ARIZONA WEATHER INFORMATION VISIT
WEATHER.GOV/FLAGSTAFF







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