Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Flagstaff, AZ

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FXUS65 KFGZ 271639

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Flagstaff AZ
935 AM MST Tue Jun 27 2017

.SYNOPSIS...Aside from a very slight chance of showers and
thunderstorms near the White Mountains again this afternoon, the
rest of the state will see dry and breezy to windy conditions. Warm
and dry conditions will persist through the remainder of the week
and into the weekend, with occasional southwest winds.


.DISCUSSION...Much drier air has moved over Arizona overnight. The
PW on the KFGZ 12Z sounding was almost half what it was yesterday
(0.54 vs 0.27 inches). The satellite PW showers that the northwestern
third of AZ has less than 0.2 PW. The only mention of any precip is
in the far southeastern part of Apache County. The morning sounding
also showed 15 to 25 knot winds less than 2000 feet off the surface
(9,000 feet MSL). This wind will mix to the surface. The combination
of dry conditions and winds has resulted in a Red Flag Warning from
noon MST to 8 PM MST for much of northern Arizona today.


.PREV DISCUSSION /440 AM MST/...Dry and stable westerly flow will
dominate the weather pattern through the end of the week. A series
of s/wvs moving through the northern Great Basin will increase
southwest winds today and Wednesday, decreasing Thursday and Friday.
These winds, combined with low relative humidity values, will cause
areas of Critical Fire Weather conditons today.

A ridge will briefly amplify to our west Friday and Saturday. This
will bring a slight warming trend and bring even drier northwest
flow to the region. A s/wv will then flatten the ridge late in the
weekend and into early next week, increasing winds once again, and
keeping us dry.

Long term models indicating a monsoonal circulation developing after
the 4th of July, too early to tell, but fairly typical.


.AVIATION...For the 12z package...Light and variable winds will
switch to a SW wind 15-25 kt with gusts up to 35 kt after 18z
Tuesday. Smoke from area wildfires may affect flight paths. Aviation
discussion not updated for TAF amendments.


.FIRE WEATHER...Afternoon thunderstorm chances are expected to be
confined to the White Mountains Tuesday with dry weather across the
entire area Wednesday. Increasing winds combined with very low
relative humidity values will create critical fire weather
conditions for portions of the area Tuesday. Winds will also
approach critical thresholds Wednesday.

Thursday through Saturday...Dry weather and clear skies for all
through this period. Winds speeds will decrease on Thursday and
Friday with a slight increase in winds Saturday. Maximum
temperatures to remain around 4 degrees above normal.



Red Flag Warning from 12PM until 8 PM MST Today for




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