Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Flagstaff, AZ
FXUS65 KFGZ 272224
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Flagstaff AZ
324 PM MST Mon Feb 27 2017
.SYNOPSIS... An wet unsettled pattern will continue through
Tuesday, with breezy and cool conditions combined with widespread
rain and snow showers. Dry weather and a warming trend is then
forecast Wednesday through the first part of next week.
.DISCUSSION...A wind advisory is currently in effect for the
Little Colorado River Valley. A wind gust of 47 mph was observed
at Two Guns around 2pm MST. Will maintain the wind advisory until
8pm MST as a result.
The leading edge of a moisture plume forecast to affect the rest
of northern Arizona tonight extends from the southern California
coast to a line from Flagstaff to Forest Lakes. Precipitation will
continue to increase in coverage and intensity across northern
Arizona tonight as the fire hose of moisture puts the region in
its site. Given the relatively warm source region, the latest
models forecast increasing snow levels this evening (6500-7500
ft.), before lowering a bit from northwest to southeast after
midnight tonight through Tuesday morning. By Tuesday morning, snow
levels should be around 5000 feet northwest Coconino County to
7500 feet southern Apache County.
Given the relatively warm moisture source region, snow ratios are
forecast to be around 12:1 for higher elevations. This means the
snow will have high moisture content and will be very tough to
shovel/plow Tuesday morning.
Various winter storm warnings and winter weather advisories are in
effect for portions of northern Arizona through Tuesday as a
result of this system. Please visit WEATHER.GOV/FLAGSTAFF for
Precipitation coverage and intensity should begin to taper off
over Yavapai and Coconino counties late Tuesday morning, and over
Navajo, Gila, and Apache counties late Tuesday afternoon.
Dry and cold conditions are then forecast Tuesday night/early
Wednesday morning. Wednesday morning lows should generally be in
the teens along the Mogollon Rim and most of Navajo Nation.
Dry conditions will continue through the end of this week into the
early part of next week. A warming trend is also forecast
Wednesday through the end of the week, with temperatures leveling
off during the early part of next week.
.AVIATION...For the 00Z package...A storm system will produce
widespread MVFR conditions with areas of IFR conditions across the
mountains. Southwest sfc winds 15-25 knots gusting locally to 40
knots. Expect widespread rain and snow, heavy at times, over most or
northern Arizona, producing IFR/LIFR conditions through 18Z...then
conditions will slowly improve from west to east. Snow level 6000-
7000 feet. Aviation discussion not updated for TAF amendments.
.FGZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...Winter Weather Advisory until 5 PM MST Tuesday FOR AZZ011-039.
Wind Advisory until 8 PM MST this evening FOR AZZ012>014.
Winter Weather Advisory until 11 AM MST Tuesday FOR AZZ004-007.
Winter Storm Warning until 5 PM MST Tuesday FOR AZZ016-017.
Winter Storm Warning until 11 AM MST Tuesday FOR AZZ015.
For Northern Arizona weather information visit