Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Flagstaff, AZ

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000
FXUS65 KFGZ 280356
AFDFGZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FLAGSTAFF AZ
856 PM MST THU AUG 27 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL REDEVELOP EARLY FRIDAY
AFTERNOON ACROSS THE NORTHLAND...WITH ONLY SLIGHT CHANCES FOR THE
REMAINDER OF TONIGHT. DRYING CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED OVER
NORTHWEST ARIZONA AS SOUTHWEST FLOW INCREASES OVER OUR AREA BY THE
END OF THE WEEK. LOOK FOR SCATTERED DAYTIMES STORMS OVER THE HIGH
TERRAIN EAST OF FLAGSTAFF AND A SLIGHT CHANCE OF STORMS ELSEWHERE
FROM SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS HAVE NEARLY ENDED ACROSS NORTHERN
ARIZONA THIS EVENING. WILL MAKE MINOR CHANGES TO THE OVERNIGHT POP
FORECAST SHORTLY...BUT REMAINDER OF SHORT-TERM FORECAST LOOKS TO
BE ON TRACK.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION /335 PM MST/...
VERY LITTLE CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY IS INDICATED DURING THE OVERNIGHT
(HOURS (8PM-10 AM) FROM TONIGHT THROUGH NEXT WEDNESDAY...EXCEPT
FOR THE WHITE MTNS. FRIDAY STILL LOOKS LIKE VERY LIGHT FLOW ALOFT
AND THIS SHOULD KEEP SIMILAR MOISTURE AND STABILITY PROFILES OVER
THE AREA. THUS SCATTERED STORM ACTIVITY IS FORECAST FOR THE
MOGOLLON RIM AND SHOULD ONCE AGAIN PUSH INTO NRN GILA AND YAVAPAI
COUNTIES AGAIN. FOR THE WEEKEND INTO NEXT WEEK...A DEEPENING LONG
WAVE TROUGH OFF THE WEST COAST WILL BRING INCREASING SOUTHWEST
FLOW TO ARIZONA. NORTHWEST ARIZONA AND YAVAPAI COUNTIES TO SEE
DAYTIME STORM CHANCES LESS THAN 20 PERCENT AND A RETURN OF BREEZY
SOUTHWEST WINDS DURING THE AFTERNOONS. THE MONSOON PLUME TO BE
PUSHED SLOWLY EASTWARD WITH TIME WITH SCATTERED STORMS LIMITED TO
AREAS ALONG THE NEW MEXICO BORDER AND A SLIGHT CHANCE ELSEWHERE.

&&

.AVIATION...
ISOLATED AND GENERALLY LIGHT SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE THIS
EVENING...BUT MOST LOCATIONS WILL REMAIN DRY OVERNIGHT. EXPECT A
RETURN TO SCATTERED SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE BY 18Z
FRIDAY. IFR CONDITIONS WITH ERRATIC GUSTY SURFACE WINDS WILL
DEVELOP NEAR THE STRONGEST STORMS. AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED
FOR TAF AMENDMENTS.

&&

.FGZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

PUBLIC...KD/DL
AVIATION...KD

FOR NORTHERN ARIZONA WEATHER INFORMATION VISIT
WEATHER.GOV/FLAGSTAFF


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