Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Flagstaff, AZ

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000
FXUS65 KFGZ 292236
AFDFGZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FLAGSTAFF AZ
336 PM MST WED JUL 29 2015

.SYNOPSIS...SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING ACROSS AREAS SOUTH OF A LINE FROM PRESCOTT
TO SHOW LOW TO WINDOW ROCK...WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE ELSEWHERE. FROM
THURSDAY THROUGH NEXT TUESDAY...EXPECT DAILY CHANCES FOR SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS FOR ALL OF NORTHERN ARIZONA.

&&

.DISCUSSION...FOR TODAY...MOST SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY
HAS OCCURRED IN NORTHERN GILA, AND SOUTHERN APACHE AND NAVAJO
COUNTIES. YAVAPAI COUNTY HAS BEEN MORE QUITE, WITH SOME ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS FORMING OVER THE LAST HOUR OR SO. THIS IS LIKELY
DUE TO A LACK OF SURFACE HEATING IN THE PRESENCE OF EXTENSIVE MID
AND UPPER LEVEL CLOUD. THIS AREA MAY STILL CONVECT GIVEN THE
PRESENCE OF AN INVERTED TROUGH FORECAST TO PASS TO THE SOUTHWEST
OF YAVAPAI COUNTY THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

MODEL DATA SUGGESTS MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE TO SPREAD NORTHWARD
ACROSS NORTHERN ARIZONA TONIGHT. THIS IS IN PART DUE TO OUTFLOWS
FROM CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY TODAY AND TONIGHT, AS WELL AS A MOIST
SOUTHERLY FLOW FROM A SUBTROPICAL HIGH PRESSURE CELL CENTERED
OVER WEST TEXAS. BY MIDDAY THURSDAY, THERE WILL BE ENOUGH MOISTURE
AND INSTABILITY IN PLACE FOR CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
ACROSS ALL OF NORTHERN ARIZONA.

A MOIST MONSOON FLOW WILL REMAIN IN PLACE ACROSS NORTHERN ARIZONA
THROUGH SATURDAY. THUS PRECIP CHANCES ARE ABOVE CLIMATOLOGY FOR
THESE DAYS AND SOME HEAVY RAINERS ARE POSSIBLE. PRECIP CHANCES
THEN DROP TO CLIMO VALUES FROM SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...FOR THE 00Z PACKAGE...ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHRA/TSRA
ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH AT LEAST 04Z...WITH SOME ACTIVITY
LIKELY TO PERSIST OVERNIGHT SOUTH OF A LINE FROM KPRC-KFLG-KRQE.
ISOLATED MVFR/IFR AND GUSTS UP TO 25 KTS NEAR STRONGER STORMS.
ANOTHER ROUND OF AFTERNOON SHRA/TSRA IS FORECAST FOR
THURSDAY...SPREADING FARTHER NORTHWEST TO INCLUDE MOST OF NORTHERN
ARIZONA. AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR AMENDMENTS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...MONSOON MOISTURE CONTINUES TO INCREASE TONIGHT
LEADING TO GREATER THUNDERSTORM CHANCES AREA-WIDE ON THURSDAY AND
FRIDAY. LIGHTNING...LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN...AND SMALL HAIL WILL BE THE
MAIN HAZARDS. GUSTY OUTFLOW WINDS WILL ALSO ACCOMPANY SOME OF THE
STORMS.

SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY...A MORE TYPICAL SUMMER MONSOON PATTERN WILL
PERSIST THROUGH THE WEEKEND AND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH DAILY
CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.FGZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

PUBLIC...RR
AVIATION...JJ
FIRE WEATHER...JJ


FOR NORTHERN ARIZONA WEATHER INFORMATION VISIT
WEATHER.GOV/FLAGSTAFF



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