Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Flagstaff, AZ

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FXUS65 KFGZ 011541
AFDFGZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FLAGSTAFF AZ
841 AM MST SUN MAY 1 2016

.SYNOPSIS...SHOWERS WITH AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE
TODAY THROUGH MONDAY. LIGHT SNOW ACCUMULATION POSSIBLE ABOVE 6500
FEET THIS MORNING WITH SNOW LEVELS RISING ABOVE 7500 FEET BY THIS
AFTERNOON. A WEAK RIDGE ALOFT WILL BRING DRIER AND WARMER WEATHER
TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY. WINDY WEATHER WILL RETURN ON THURSDAY
AHEAD OF ANOTHER PACIFIC LOW FORECAST TO BRING A SECOND ROUND OF
WET AND COOL WEATHER STARTING FRIDAY INTO NEXT WEEKEND.

&&

.DISCUSSION...MORNING FORECAST IN GOOD SHAPE BUT STAY TUNED
UPDATES TO THE CURRENT FORECAST PACKAGE ARE LIKELY THROUGH THE
DAY.

COLD LOW PRESSURE REMAINS CENTERED OVER SOUTH CENTRAL ARIZONA
THIS MORNING. A MODERATE BAND OF PRECIPITATION HAS SET UP ON THE
NORTHEASTERN PERIPHERY OF THE LOW CENTER COINCIDENT WITH A
CONVERGENT BOUNDARY STRETCHING ACROSS NORTHEASTERN ARIZONA. THIS
BAND HAS RESULTED IN SOME ACCUMULATING SNOWFALL DOWN TO AROUND
6500 FEET THIS MORNING ACROSS THE MOGOLLON RIM AND LIKELY
NORTHEAST TOWARD WINDOW ROCK. REPORTS OF UP TO AN INCH IN GRASSY
AREAS AROUND THE FLAGSTAFF AREA WITH HIGHER AMOUNTS LIKELY
SOUTHEAST OF FLAGSTAFF TOWARD LAKE MARY WHERE PRECIPITATION HAS
BEEN MORE PERSISTENT. THIS BAND WILL CONTINUE TO ROTATE NORTH AND
WEST THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS AFFECTING AREAS FROM NEAR FLAGSTAFF
NORTHEAST THROUGH BLACK MESA AND THE CHINLE VALLEY. AREAS ABOVE
6500 CAN GENERALLY EXPECT AN ADDITIONAL INCH OF SNOW THROUGH MID
MORNING...PERHAPS MORE FROM LAKE MARY TOWARD MORMON LAKE.

INSTABILITY SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL PERSIST THROUGH EARLY
THIS EVENING WITH SNOW LEVELS RISING ABOVE 7500 FEET BY THIS
AFTERNOON. SHOWERS WILL DECREASE IN COVERAGE OVERNIGHT AS THE LOW
QUICKLY MOVES TO THE EAST. A WEAKER DISTURBANCE PASSES THROUGH
ARIZONA ON MONDAY KEEPING SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IN
THE FORECAST.

HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST TUESDAY/WEDNESDAY
BRINGING A BRIEF WARM UP AND DRY CONDITIONS. BY THURSDAY A LARGE
AREA OF LOW PRESSURE MOVES OVER THE WEST COAST RESULTING IN
INCREASED SOUTHWEST WINDS FOR NORTHERN ARIZONA. THE LOW MARCHES
EAST ACROSS THE AREA ON FRIDAY AND NORTHEAST INTO THE FOUR
CORNERS REGION OVER THE WEEKEND. COOL AND SHOWERY WEATHER MAKES A
RETURN WITH THE POSSIBILITY OF SOME HIGH ELEVATION SNOW.

&&

.AVIATION...FOR THE 18Z PACKAGE...TIL 03Z EXPECT SCT-BKN SKY COVER
WITH CIGS FROM 5-8KFT AGL. CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY WILL PRODUCE SCT-NMRS
-SHRA/-SHRASN SHOWERS. PRECIPITATION COVERAGE DECREASING AFT 03Z...AREAS OF
MVFR CIGS AND PATCHY FOG DEVELOPING ACROSS THE AREA. AVIATION
DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR TAF AMENDMENTS.

&&

.FGZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

PUBLIC...MCCOLLUM/MCS
AVIATION...DL/PETERSON


FOR NORTHERN ARIZONA WEATHER INFORMATION VISIT
WEATHER.GOV/FLAGSTAFF



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