Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Flagstaff, AZ

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FXUS65 KFGZ 220427

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Flagstaff AZ
930 PM MST Mon Aug 21 2017

.SYNOPSIS...Expect mainly afternoon and evening showers and
thunderstorms each day through Thursday of this week. Storm
intensity and coverage should decrease Friday through the

.DISCUSSION...Most of the thunderstorm activity has ended across
northern Arizona this evening. However, there still is activity along
the Utah boarder. Will update grids to show more activity in the far
northeast. Otherwise, forecast is on track


.PREV DISCUSSION /335 PM MST/...Scattered convection is ongoing over
western Coconino and Yavapai counties this afternoon. It is being
aided by synoptic ascent ahead of low pressure off the California
coast. Subsidence on the back side of low pressure over New Mexico
is putting a damper on thunderstorm development over areas east of
Flagstaff this afternoon. Thunderstorm coverage should remain
relatively larger west as the overall pattern will not change much
through the early evening hours. Thunderstorm activity should wane
areawide after midnight with the loss of instability.

By Tuesday, drier air will filter in from the southwest. This
should only allow for mainly isolated afternoon thunderstorms
along the Mogollon Rim. Impacts should be minimal.

Wednesday and Thursday, another slug of moisture will lift
northward across Arizona. Afternoon thunderstorm coverage should
increase as a result.

Friday and Saturday, high pressure is forecast to build over the
AZ/UT border. This should lead to mainly dry conditions over
northern Arizona and above normal temperatures.

Sunday and Monday, moisture is forecast to slowly increase across
the southern zones of Yavapai and Gila counties. A low grade
monsoon day is expected Sunday, with a mid grade monsoon day
forecast for Monday.


.AVIATION...For the 06Z package...Isolated thunderstorms
north of a KGCN-KRQE line through 12Z. Reduced visibilities in
locally heavy rain is the main concern with local MVFR to IFR

Another round of isolated thunderstorms could develop Tuesday
afternoon near KGCN-KPGA. Typical gusty winds also expected near
storms. Aviation discussion not updated for TAF amendments.


.FIRE WEATHER...Expect less thunderstorm activity Tuesday with
slightly drier conditions. Wednesday will see an increase in
thunderstorm activity with storms favoring the highest terrain
along the Mogollon Rim, White Mountains, and Chuska Mountains.

Thursday through Saturday...Thunderstorm chances will continue
through Thursday afternoon. A drying trend is forecast Friday
through Saturday.






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