Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Flagstaff, AZ

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FXUS65 KFGZ 221134

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Flagstaff AZ
434 AM MST Sun Jan 22 2017

.SYNOPSIS...Another winter storm will impact northern Arizona
Sunday afternoon through Monday night with additional moderate to
heavy snow accumulations above the 6000 foot level, with lighter
amounts down to 5000 feet. Expect hazardous driving conditions due
to snow and blowing snow. Expect precipitation to wind down
Tuesday with very cold temperatures through Thursday.


.DISCUSSION...The last of three storms is looking to impact the
area later today with the decent moisture transport and snow
levels should be located between 5000 and 6000 feet at the start
of this disturbance, and dropping to 4000 feet as the storm leaves
the area on Tuesday. Current model solution show roughly an inch
of liquid precipitation across the forecast area through Tuesday
Morning. Above 6000 feet that should translate to around an
additional foot of new snowfall, especially along the Mogollon

Therefore the winter storm watch has been upgraded to a winter
storm warning for most locations above 6000 feet starting at 6 pm
Sunday. The major exception to this are the White Mountains where
timing will delay the onset of accumulating heavy snowfall until
around noon on Monday. The Chuska Mountains and Black Mesa will
also see significant accumulations, however the amounts are
expected to be lesser, so a winter weather advisory has been
issued from Noon on Monday through 5 am Tuesday.

A big concern on Monday besides the precipitation will be an
increase in winds across the high country associated with the
frontal passage on Monday. Besides the obvious concerns of white
out conditions with the strong winds, lower elevations devoid of
loose snow could see impacts from these strong winds, a wind
advisory is not out of the question for locations not in the
winter storm warning at this point, will allow for another
forecast cycle to run before issuing any additional products.

After the system exists the area Tuesday quieter cooler conditions
are expected across the region. Cold air will continue to flow
into the region through at least the remainder of the work week
and temperatures below seasonal normals are expected across the
region. The deep snowcover will only amplify this with clearing
skies overnight allow for efficient radiative cooling to occur.

These cold temperatures are expected to be the major impact from
Tuesday onward as an otherwise quiet weather pattern developsover
Northern Arizona behind the impending storm system.


.AVIATION...For the 12Z package...Another storm system will move
across northern Arizona during the next 48 hours. Expect increasing
showers from west to east beginning after 15Z today. This will also
bring strong winds and areas of IFR to LIFR conditions. Aviation
discussion not updated for TAF amendments.


.FGZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...Winter Storm Warning from 6 PM this evening to 5 AM MST Tuesday
FOR AZZ004-006>008-015-016-018.

Winter Weather Advisory from noon Monday to 5 AM MST Tuesday FOR

Winter Storm Warning from noon Monday to 5 AM MST Tuesday FOR




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