Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Flagstaff, AZ

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000
FXUS65 KFGZ 141601
AFDFGZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FLAGSTAFF AZ
901 AM MST SUN FEB 14 2016

.SYNOPSIS...STRONG HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN OVER THE WESTERN
STATES THROUGH MOST OF THE SEVEN DAY FORECAST PERIOD. THE ONLY
EXCEPTION WILL BE A WEAK COLD FRONT MOVING ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST ON
THURSDAY BRINGING COOLER TEMPERATURES...WIND AND LOW CHANCES FOR
A SHOWER OR TWO. ANOTHER STRONG HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE WILL BUILD
BACK IN ALONG THE WEST COAST FROM SATURDAY ONWARD KEEPING ARIZONA
IN A DRY WEATHER PATTERN FOR NEXT WEEKEND.
&&

.DISCUSSION...HIGH LEVEL MOISTURE IS FORECAST TO MOVE OVER THE
WEST COAST RIDGE AND INTO NORTHERN ARIZONA TODAY, AS A RESULT SOME
HIGH CLOUDS. A WEAK LOW PRESSURE TROUGH MOVING THROUGH THE
NORTHERN AND CENTRAL INTER-MOUNTAIN AND ROCKY MOUNTAIN STATES
WILL HELP REINFORCE THE NORTH TO NORTHEAST WINDS THROUGH MONDAY
ACROSS NORTHERN AZ.

DRY CONDITIONS AND ABOVE NORMAL HIGH TEMPERATURES FORECAST TO
CONTINUE.
&&

.PREV DISCUSSION /750 AM MST/...A STRONG RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE
WILL CONTINUE TO BLOCK PACIFIC LOWS FROM MOVING INTO ARIZONA
THROUGH TUESDAY. ON WEDNESDAY THE LONG WAVE PATTERN WILL BUCKLE
AND THE RIDGE WILL MOVE EAST ACROSS THE CENTRAL STATES ALLOWING A
COLD FRONT TO MOVE INTO THE REGION ON THURSDAY. THE CENTER OF THE
THURSDAY LOW WILL MOVE THROUGH OREGON WITH ONLY THE SOUTHERN EDGE
OF A WEAKENING COLD FRONT PASSING THROUGH NORTHERN ARIZONA. THE
RESULTING WEATHER CHANGES WILL BE WINDY SOUTHWESTERLIES,
INCREASING CLOUDS, LOW CHANCES FOR A SHOWER OR TWO AND A BRIEF 5
TO 7 DEGREE COOL DOWN IN OUR HIGH TEMPERATURES.

ON SATURDAY ANOTHER STRONG HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE WILL BUILD OVER THE
WEST COAST PUSHING THE JET STREAM FURTHER NORTH AND MOVING ARIZONA
BACK INTO ANOTHER DRY PERIOD.
&&

.AVIATION...FOR THE 18Z PACKAGE...VFR CONDITIONS UNDER FEW-BKN HIGH
CLOUDS OVER THE NEXT 24 HRS. NORTH TO NORTHEAST WINDS CONTINUING FOR
MOST AREAS, GENERALLY 15KTS OR LESS...LCL HIGHER GUSTS IN FAVORED
AREAS SOUTH AND SOUTHWEST OF HIGHER TERRAIN. AVIATION DISCUSSION
NOT UPDATED FOR TAF AMENDMENTS.
&&

.FGZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.
&&

$$

PUBLIC...TC/BOHLIN
AVIATION...TC


FOR NORTHERN ARIZONA WEATHER INFORMATION VISIT
WEATHER.GOV/FLAGSTAFF


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