Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Flagstaff, AZ

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FXUS65 KFGZ 261101

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Flagstaff AZ
401 AM MST Wed Apr 26 2017

.SYNOPSIS...Warmer afternoon temperatures are expected today and
Thursday with breezy winds beginning this afternoon. A passing
disturbance will also bring a chance of showers to far northeast
Arizona tonight. Wind speeds will increase Friday as a cold front
moves south through the state, bringing colder temperatures and a
chance of showers to mainly eastern Arizona into Saturday. Fair
and warmer weather returns for Sunday.


.DISCUSSION...A brief lull in winds combined with a dry air mass
has allowed temperatures to plummet to the low to mid 20s this
morning in the high country above 6000 feet, with 30s/40s for
lower elevations. Temperatures by this afternoon should warm to
near normal for late April which will be several degrees warmer
than yesterday. Light wind this morning will increase by mid to
late afternoon as the next disturbance approaches. Breezy winds
will continue overnight along/north of the Mogollon Rim. There
will be a chance of showers with a passing disturbance near the
four corners overnight with dry conditions elsewhere. Wind speeds
will increase further by Thursday afternoon and areas east of a
Page-Flagstaff-Payson line could see gusts exceeding 40 mph.

Low pressure diving south to the four corners area Friday and
Saturday will bring much cooler temperatures, on the order of
10-15 degrees below normal. There is also a chance of showers and
possibly a thunderstorm just ahead of the front Friday, mainly
affecting eastern Arizona, then a slight chance of a few
lingering instability showers Saturday. Much drier air behind the
front over the weekend should lead to a hard freeze in the 20s
for the higher elevations each morning, with lows even approaching
the freezing mark for valley areas north of the Mogollon Rim such
as Winslow and St Johns. A strong warming trend is expected Sunday
through Tuesday as ridging builds from the west coast toward


.AVIATION...For the 12Z Package...Primarily VFR conditions are
expected to continue over the next 24 hrs. Breezy westerly winds
will increase this afternoon becoming 15-20 kts gusting 25-30 kts
and lasting into the evening hrs before diminishing. There will be a
chance of light -shra along and north of a KGCN-KRQE line aft 00Z.
Aviation discussion not updated for amendments.


.FIRE WEATHER...Mostly dry and breezy weather will continue
today and Thursday. Lower elevations of eastern Arizona will
approach critical humidity values and wind speeds during the late
afternoon hours but these conditions are not expected to be
widespread or long lived. There is a chance for light showers across
the Utah border and Four Corners region tonight.

Friday through Sunday...A cold front will move through the area
Friday bringing breezy and colder conditions with a chance for
showers to eastern Arizona. Dry and cool weather continues through
the weekend.






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