Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Flagstaff, AZ

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FXUS65 KFGZ 240407 CCA
AFDFGZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FLAGSTAFF AZ
907 PM MST WED JUL 23 2014

.SYNOPSIS...THE MONSOON CIRCULATION WILL CONTINUE TO BRING ISOLATED
TO SCATTERED AFTERNOON AND EVENING THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THE
WEEKEND. DAYTIME HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE ABOVE AVERAGE.

&&

.DISCUSSION...A BAND OF SCATTERED LIGHT SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS
EXTENDS FROM NORTHEAST AZ SOUTHEAST INTO AROUND LUKE AIR FORCE BASE.
ON THE EAST SIDE OF THE WEAK TROUGH THE DEW POINTS ARE IN THE 50S TO
LOWER 60S TO THE WEST OF THIS FEATURE DEW POINTS ARE MID 30 TO MID
40S.

THE TROUGH WILL CONTINUE HEADING WEST NORTHWEST THROUGH THE NIGHT
OVERNIGHT...HOWEVER THE SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY ALONG THIS
FEATURE WILL CONTINUE TO WEAKEN AND BE MORE WIDELY SCATTERED.

OVERNIGHT PRECIPITATION CHANCES HAVE BEEN UPDATED TO TAKE INTO
ACCOUNT THE PROGRESSION OF THIS TROUGH AND THE SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY ASSOCIATED WITH IT.
&&

.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION /330 PM MST/...PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES HAVE
INCREASED TODAY WITH SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW AROUND THE UPPER RIDGE.
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS HAVE
DEVELOPED...THOUGH LOW LEVEL MOISTURE REMAINS LIMITED SO GUSTY WINDS
HAVE ACCOMPANIED THE STORMS. EXPECT STORMS TO GRADUALLY DIMINISH
THROUGH THE EVENING...THOUGH ISOLATED ACTIVITY WILL LIKELY PERSIST
OVERNIGHT. THE GENERAL CIRCULATION WILL REMAIN SIMILAR THROUGH THE
WEEKEND...THOUGH MODELS INDICATE SOME DRIER AIR ALOFT WILL MOVE OVER
AREAS SOUTHEAST OF FLAGSTAFF THROUGH FRIDAY...BEFORE MOISTURE
RETURNS AGAIN BY THE WEEKEND. WITH LIMITED CLOUD COVER AND
RAINFALL...DAYTIME HIGHS WILL CONTINUE TO BE ABOVE NORMAL.

&&

.AVIATION...
FOR THE 06Z PACKAGE...ISOLD SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ARE FORECAST
OVERNIGHT. AREAS OF SMOKE FROM WILDFIRES...WITH MVFR VSBYS POSSIBLE
VCNTY KSEZ...KFLG...KGCN. ANOTHER ROUND OF ISOLATED TO SCATTERED
-SHRA/TSRA FROM AROUND 18Z THURSDAY TO 04Z FRIDAY. GUSTY OUTFLOW
WINDS UP TO 40 KTS POSSIBLE NEAR STORM ACTIVITY. MVFR CIGS/VSBYS
POSSIBLE TOMORROW AFTERNOON AROUND THE STRONGEST TSTMS. AVIATION
DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR AMENDMENTS.

&&

.FGZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

PUBLIC.........TC/JJ
AVIATION.......TC

FOR NORTHERN ARIZONA WEATHER INFORMATION VISIT
WEATHER.GOV/FLAGSTAFF








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