Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Goodland, KS
FXUS63 KGLD 232311
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Goodland KS
511 PM MDT Sun Oct 23 2016
.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Monday)
Issued at 104 PM MDT Sun Oct 23 2016
Across the forecast area this afternoon...the Tri State region is on
the north side of a frontal boundary with surface high pressure
building south into the Central Plains. The positioning of the ridge
is currently giving the area a NE surface gradient...gusty to around
20 mph in many locales. Skies are mainly sunny with some high clouds
over the area...giving the CWA temps mainly in the 60s.
Going into tonight...ridge moving into the Central Plains will
continue to shift south and east of the CWA overnight...working
towards the mississippi river valley towards Monday morning. looking
for a trend of current NE surface to shift around to SSE flow by
morning. With clear skies overnight and expected winds...CWA will be
looking for overnight lows to range in mid to upper 30s...which is
several degrees above normal.
By Monday...models have surface ridge off to the east with an
amplifying H5/H7 building over the central portion of the country.
This is going to start the beginning of the week off with another
dry day along w/ WAA on southerly flow. The result will be above
normal temps bringing highs into the lower to mid 70s...with warmest
areas in the west.
.LONG TERM...(Monday night through Sunday)
Issued at 233 PM MDT Sun Oct 23 2016
Main forecast issues will be high temperatures through Wednesday and
fire weather concerns toward the end of the week. Satellite showing
an amplified pattern/somewhat progressive pattern from the Pacific
into western Atlantic. The flow has become more amplified over the
last 24 hours, especially over the eastern Pacific.
Monday night...Models continue to show a significant increase in
boundary layer moisture as a result of the return flow ahead of
incoming cold front. More model output is showing a rather
substantial area of fog and stratus, especially from the high
resolution output. Sref probabilities are showing a high
probabilities for visibilities below 3 miles. Models showing the
stratus and fog making it further west. So made those adjustments
based on the recent output and collaboration.
Tuesday/Tuesday night...Models are showing the fog lasting a little
longer. What is a little bothersome some output is showing the
stratus hanging into the afternoon in the eastern portion of the
area. The output is showing the coolest in that area, and that makes
Left front quadrant moves across the area from west to east from
late in the afternoon through the night. Weak shortwave trough moves
across the area during this time. Despite the lift, it looks like
the best chance for measurable rainfall is to the east of the area.
Forecast soundings show a lot of mid and upper level moisture with
dry low levels. The blend output is showing a very slight chance of
precipitation. That appears to be reasonable, and will not change.
However, I would not be surprised if this ends up more like
sprinkles or even virga.
Wednesday...Dry and cooler day as ridging through mid levels builds
into the area. Cooler temperatures the blend gives me looks
Wednesday night through Sunday...Models differ on how they handle
the evolution of the pattern during this period. Initial deep trough
develops along the west coast of the country. This system gets
kicked out to the northeast as the next strong system digs into the
mean trough along the west coast. The models differ on how fast and
strong they kick out this system and how strong is the subsequent
downstream ridge of this. The Gfs is slower than the Ecmwf.
Considering the strength of the mid/upper ridge...the slower
solution would seem to be more likely.
No matter what after this first trough is kicked out another strong
system develops along the west coast with another strong upper ridge
building into the central portion of the country. No matter what
solution comes true, the forecast looks dry. Temperatures warm up
Thursday and Friday. Relative humidities decrease to near 20 percent
or less, mainly over the western portion of the area. At this time
the winds look they stay below red flag criteria. A surface trough
and cold front move through the area late Friday afternoon into
Friday night. This brings cooler but still above normal temperatures
to the area for the weekend.
.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Monday evening)
Issued at 508 PM MDT Sun Oct 23 2016
VFR expected at both KGLD and KMCK through the TAF period. Light
winds tonight will gradually veer to the southeast by Monday
morning and increase to around 10kts through the day around a
large area of high pressure centered near the Great Lakes.