Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Goodland, KS

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FXUS63 KGLD 250021

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Goodland KS
521 PM MST Tue Jan 24 2017

Issued at 521 PM MST Tue Jan 24 2017

Update to forecast issued to adjust cloud cover/pops/temps based
off of latest couple hours trend in obs/satellite/radar. Currently
skies remain mostly cloudy to cloudy with temps ranging from the
upper 20s to the mid 30s. Winds across the CWA remain steady from
the NNW 15-20 mph with gusts approaching 30 mph at times. Latest
radar loop still shows light scattered precip over portions of the
area...but have adjusted timing for this to clear east.


.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Wednesday)
Issued at 114 PM MST Tue Jan 24 2017

Upper level storm system passing to the north as advertised. What
precipitation that was around this morning has moved off to the
north and east. High resolution models are advertising that some
spotty light precipitation on the west side of exiting system
could affect the northeast half of the area from late this
afternoon into the overnight hours. This appears to be the result
of one last shortwave trough/mid level baroclinic zone rotating
through the area. So based on the above cut back on the chance of
precipitation. Phase looks to be snow. Amounts will stay very
light. Winds look to stay breezy to windy through the rest of the

Some moisture and lift are around tomorrow during the morning
hours. However...air mass has stabilized and lift is much weaker.
So kept the forecast dry. However, a few of the high resolution
models do show some isolated precipitation. Overnight shift will
need to take another look at this. Winds are a little weaker but
do stay breezy. Below normal temperatures are in order tomorrow
and made minor adjustments to those temperatures.

.LONG TERM...(Wednesday night through Tuesday)
Issued at 108 PM MST Tue Jan 24 2017

Wednesday night-Tuesday: A progressive pattern will remain in place
through the extended period with mean upper level track originating
out of the NW. A series of upper level shortwave troughs will rotate
across the northern plains. Due to either an unfavorable track to
the north and northeast, or a much drier air mass over our CWA
measurable precipitation is not expected with these shortwave
passages. If there was a chance it would be Saturday night int
Sunday and again Monday night. The only model at this point that
hints at precip potential in our CWA is GEM and consensus favors
dry conditions, so I kept dry forecast in place.

As the flow amplifies, heights rise, and flow shifts to the west
then southwest we should see moderating temperatures through Monday.
Monday in particular may be a day when we see milder temperatures as
WAA increases ahead of an approaching cold front similar to this
past Monday when highs were in the 50s and lower 60s. I trended
highs up Monday based on the consistency between ECMWF/GFS on WAA
and temps aloft (H85 around 11C). Beyond Monday we should see
colder temperatures, however guidance varies on magnitude of CAA
and GFS/GEFS is tending to be colder than ECMWF. These large
variances lower confidence, and blend/mean approach was kept.

We may also see windier conditions develop during the daytime
periods than what is currently in there, however model mixing
heights and exact location of surface trough axis (better surface
gradient) lowered my confidence in adjusting winds from blend at
this point.


.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Thursday evening)
Issued at 427 PM MST Tue Jan 24 2017

A mix of VFR/MVFR conditions thru the forecast period with
ceilings ranging from bkn-ovc012-040. There will be the chance
for flurries from 00z-0230z Wednesday(and again for KMCK from 06z-
12z). Winds NNW 15-25kts with gusts up to 35kts Wednesday.




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