Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Goodland, KS

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000
FXUS63 KGLD 010538
AFDGLD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
1038 PM MST SAT FEB 28 2015

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 240 PM MST SAT FEB 28 2015

CURRENT THINKING IS FOR THE AREA OF LIGHT SNOW THAT OCCURRED THIS
MORNING (PER 850-700MB RH AND BETTER DENDRITIC LAYER TEMPS NEAR THE
SFC) WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE EAST AND OUT OF THE AREA BY 00Z SUNDAY AS
SLIGHTLY DRIER AIR IN THE LOW LEVELS (AND CONSIDERABLY DRIER AIR IN
THE MID LEVELS). COULD SEE SOME LIGHT SNOW OR FLURRIES MOVE IN TO
THE SOUTH AND SOUTHERN PART OF THE AREA AS THE NEXT SYSTEM STARTS TO
MOVE IN FROM THE SOUTHWEST. THIS SYSTEM MOVES OVER THE AREA THROUGH
MIDNIGHT BEFORE DRIER AIR MOVES IN BEHIND IT DECREASING LIGHT SNOW
CHANCES CONSIDERABLY FROM SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST. A GENERAL LULL IN
PRECIP CHANCES CONTINUES FOR MUCH OF THE DAY SUNDAY BEFORE ANOTHER
SYSTEM TOUCHES THE FAR SOUTHWESTERN CORNER OF OUR FORECAST AREA BY
00Z MONDAY.

ANY SNOWFALL ACCUMULATION THROUGH SUNDAY SHOULD BE UNDER ONE HALF
INCH.

LOW TEMPERATURES TONIGHT IN THE 8F-13F RANGE IN FAR EASTERN COLORADO
WITH MID TEENS EAST OF THE CO/KS BORDER. HIGHS SUNDAY ABOUT 6-9F
WARMER AT 850MB SUPPORTING MOS/BIAS CORRECTED GRID MAXES IN THE MID
20S TO AROUND 30 IN FAR EASTERN COLORADO...LOW TO MID 30S EAST OF
THE CO/KS BORDER. HAVE CONCERN ABOUT FAR EASTERN COLORADO MAX TEMPS.
NAM/GFS BOUNDARY LAYER RH VERY HIGH SUGGESTING EITHER A LAYER OF
STRATUS/MIST/FOG OR ITS FEEDBACK FROM SOME SNOW COVER. IF THE LATTER
TURNS OUT TO BE TRUE TEMPS OUT THERE COULD BE A FEW DEGREES
WARMER.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 150 PM MST SAT FEB 28 2015

ALTHOUGH A WEAK 500 MB RIDGE WILL DEVELOP OVER THE HIGH PLAINS
EARLY IN THE PERIOD AS A WEST COAST TROUGH DEEPENS OFF SOUTHERN
CALIFORNIA...A SERIES OF WEAK SHORT WAVE TROUGHS WILL MOVE ACROSS
THE AREA. MODELS ARE IN GENERAL AGREEMENT THAT THE FIRST WAVE
MOVES ACROSS CENTRAL COLORADO AFTER 06Z MONDAY. BY 12Z MONDAY
MORNING...WEAK CYCLONIC DIFFERENTIAL VORTICITY ADVECTION AND WARM
AIR ADVECTION WILL PRODUCE LIGHT SNOW. AS THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH
MOVES NORTHEAST DURING THE DAY...EXPECT SNOW TO END FROM SOUTHWEST
TO NORTHEAST. THE BEST CHANCE OF SNOW WILL BE NORTH OF INTERSTATE
70...BUT ACCUMULATIONS WILL BE LIGHT...GENERALLY LESS THAN ONE
INCH.

WARM AIR ADVECTION WILL CONTINUE THROUGH MUCH OF MONDAY NIGHT UNTIL
THE NEXT ARCTIC FRONT ARRIVES. EXPECT THE FRONT WITH ASSOCIATED
STRONG WINDS AND MUCH COLDER AIR TO BE ALONG THE KANSAS/NEBRASKA
BORDER BY 12Z TUESDAY. IT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE ENTIRE FORECAST AREA
BY 18Z. EXPECT FALLING TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE DAY.

THE WARMER AIR MONDAY NIGHT PRESENTS A CHALLENGE FOR PRECIPITATION
TYPE MONDAY NIGHT/EARLY TUESDAY MORNING. MODEL SOUNDINGS DO NOT
REALLY SATURATE UNTIL 15Z TUESDAY MORNING...BUT THERE WILL A LOW
LEVEL WARM LAYER FROM 12Z-18Z...ESPECIALLY SOUTH OF INTERSTATE
70. SO...THERE MAY BE A FEW HOURS TUESDAY MORNING FOR FREEZING
DRIZZLE. HOWEVER...EXPECT THE COLD AIR TO BE FAST MOVING AND WARM
LAYER WILL NOT LAST LONG...SO CONFIDENCE IS NOT HIGH ENOUGH TO
INTRODUCE FREEZING DRIZZLE TO THE FORECASTS YET. OTHERWISE...SNOW
AMOUNTS WILL AGAIN BE LIGHT...LESS THAN ONE INCH.

TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY...CYCLONIC FLOW WILL DEVELOP OVER THE
FORECAST AREA TUESDAY NIGHT. A STRONG SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL MOVE
ACROSS THE AREA IN NORTHWEST FLOW WEDNESDAY. THIS WILL AGAIN BRING
A CHANCE OF SNOW...VERY SIMILAR TO THE PAST SEVERAL DAYS WITH
LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS.

ALTHOUGH SEVERAL SHORTWAVE TROUGHS WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA
THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...THE AIR MASS WILL ALSO BE DRY. WARMER
AIR WILL ALSO ADVECT ACROSS WESTERN KANSAS THURSDAY...SO EXPECT
AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES TO REACH INTO THE 50S BY THE WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1035 PM MST SAT FEB 28 2015

MODELS HAVE COME INTO MUCH BETTER AGREEMENT AND ARE MUCH DRIER
THAN EARLIER OUTPUT. LITTLE IF ANY SNOW IS EXPECTED AND IF ANY
DOES OCCUR...THERE WILL NOT BE ANY SIGNIFICANT VISIBILITY
RESTRICTION. ALSO MODELS ARE PRODUCING LESS FOG AS WELL.

FOR KGLD...MVFR TO OCCASIONAL IFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH
12Z AND THEN SHOULD BECOME VFR. VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
THROUGH THE REST OF THE PERIOD.

FOR KMCK...MVFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AT THE BEGINNING AND THEY
SHOULD RISE VFR BY 09Z. VFR CONDITIONS ARE THEN EXPECTED THROUGH
THE REST OF THE PERIOD.

&&

.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...99
LONG TERM...MENTZER
AVIATION...BULLER



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