Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Goodland, KS

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000
FXUS63 KGLD 261932
AFDGLD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
132 PM MDT SAT JUL 26 2014

.SHORT TERM...(THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 131 PM MDT SAT JUL 26 2014

LATEST WV IMAGE AND RAP UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS SHOW BROAD RIDGE STILL
IN PLACE FROM THE DESERT SOUTHWEST ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS AND
INTO THE SOUTHERN MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. A PLUME OF MONSOONAL MOISTURE
CONTINUES TO ROUND THE WESTERN AND NORTHERN PERIPHERY OF THIS RIDGE
INTO THE CENTRAL ROCKIES AND HIGH PLAINS. A CLOSED LOW IS CENTERED
OVER SOUTHERN MANITOBA CANADA WITH A SHORTWAVE TROUGH OUT AHEAD OF
THIS ENTERING THE NORTHERN MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. AT THE SURFACE LOW
PRESSURE IS IN PLACE OVER OUR CWA WITH SEVERAL WEAK CONVERGENT AREAS
ACROSS OUR SOUTH...AND A COLD FRONT ENTERING NORTHWEST KANSAS FROM
COLORADO AND SOUTHWEST NEBRASKA.

RAP ANALYSIS INDICATES MODERATE SB/MIXED LAYER CAPE VALUES AHEAD OF
MEAN SURFACE TROUGH AXIS ACROSS MOST OF OUR CWA. SHEER IS NOT
PARTICULARLY IMPRESSIVE...HOWEVER WITH SOUNDINGS SHOWING INVERTED V
TYPE SOUNDINGS AND DCAPE 1000 J/KG OR HIGHER MICROBURST POTENTIAL IS
THERE FOR ANY THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY. GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO FAVOR THE
SOUTHERN PART OF OUR CWA FOR THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE...MAINLY ALONG
AND AHEAD OF COLD FRONT. WEAK FORCING ROTATING FROM THE NORTH
LATER THIS EVENING MAY ALSO SUPPORT ADDITIONAL POST FRONTAL
THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT. POP ADJUSTMENTS WERE MADE TO REFLECT
THESE TRENDS THROUGH TONIGHT. SUBSIDENT AIR MASS APPEARS TO BE IN
PLACE OVER MOST OF THE CWA SUNDAY...THOUGH BY SUNDAY AFTERNOON
UPSLOPE COMBINED WITH OVERRUNNING ALONG STALLED FRONTAL ZONE IN
COLORADO MAY ALLOW FOR SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT INTO THE SW
PART OF THE CWA IN THE AFTERNOON.

TEMPERATURES SATURDAY SHOULD BE COOLER...HOWEVER THERE IS QUITE A
BIT OF SPREAD DUE TO NAM/SREF LINGERING PRECIP MOST OF THE DAY
ACROSS MUCH OF THE CWA. I AM NOT FAVORING THIS SOLUTION AS BETTER
SUPPORT FOR SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM (AND ANY LOW CLOUD COVER) WOULD BE
FURTHER WEST AND SOUTHWEST. IF THE NAM/SREF WERE CORRECT THEN HIGHS
IN THE LOW 80S FOR WESTERN PARTS OF THE CWA. BASED ON THE FAVORED
WARMER SOLUTION WE SHOULD SEE HIGHS WARM TO NEAR NORMAL VALUES IN
THE UPPER 80S FOR A LOT OF THE CWA SUNDAY.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 221 AM MDT SAT JUL 26 2014

HIGH PRESSURE AT 500 AND 700 MB WILL BE PRESENT OVER THE TRI STATE
AREA IN THE LONG TERM PERIOD WITH MAIN JET FLOW WELL TO THE NORTH OF
THE REGION. DESPITE THE LACK OF FORCING THAT WILL BE PRESENT
ALOFT...PLENTY OF MOISTURE WILL BE PRESENT WITH PRECIPITABLE WATER
AMOUNTS FROM THE GFS BETWEEN 1.25 AND 1.6 INCHES FOR THE DURATION OF
THE LONG TERM PERIOD. THE ECMWF ALSO HAS BETWEEN 1.25 AND 1.5 INCHES
OF PRECIPITABLE WATER FOR TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY...AND THEN BRINGS IN
MORE DRY AIR ALOFT FOR LATER IN THE WEEK. THEREFORE...THE POTENTIAL
FOR SOME HEAVY RAINFALL WILL EXIST AREA WIDE.

A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM DEVELOPING IN THE SOUTHERN PLAINS IN
COMBINATION WITH SOME SURFACE CONFLUENCE IN EASTERN COLORADO WILL
BRING CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORMS TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY. THE
POTENTIAL FOR DRY AIR MOVING IN ALOFT WILL DECREASE CHANCES FOR
THUNDERSTORMS ON FRIDAY...HOWEVER SURFACE THETA E VALUES BETWEEN 330
AND 350 K ARE STILL PLENTY TO SUPPORT SOME STORMS THAT MAY DEVELOP.
INSTABILITY IS NOT TOO IMPRESSIVE WITH CAPE VALUES BELOW 1000 J/KG
FOR BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF...BUT IS STILL SUFFICIENT ENOUGH TO
SUPPORT SOME CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT.

NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL KEEP CONDITIONS AT THE SURFACE A BIT
COOLER THAN AVERAGE DURING THIS PERIOD...WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES IN
THE LOW TO MID 80S ACROSS THE AREA. LOW TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE RIGHT
ABOUT NORMAL IN THE LOWER 60S.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1124 AM MDT SAT JUL 26 2014

VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD PREVAIL THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD AT KGLD AND
KMCK. MAIN AVIATION CONCERN WILL BE THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY MAINLY
EXPECTED TO IMPACT LOCATIONS SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 70 AND KGLD. KEPT
VCTS MENTION IN KGLD TAF FOR THIS EVENING...AND LEFT MENTION OUT
OF KMCK. ADDITIONAL THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY REDEVELOP OR
LINGER LATER TONIGHT...HOWEVER I FELT MOST CONFIDENT WITH THE
EVENING PERIOD AT THIS POINT. WINDS FROM THE NORTHWEST 10-15KT
WILL EVENTUALLY SHIFT TO THE NORTHEAST AS A SURFACE LOW MOVES
SOUTH...THEN A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE OVER BOTH TERMINALS THIS
EVENING AND THERE COULD BE A BRIEF PERIOD OF GUSTY WINDS FROM THE
NORTHEAST. AFTER 06Z NORTHEAST WINDS AROUND 10KT SHOULD PREVAIL
WITH FRONT SOUTH OF BOTH TERMINALS.


&&

.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR KSZ004-016.

CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...DR
LONG TERM...MK
AVIATION...DR






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