Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Houston/Galveston, TX

Home | Current Version | Previous Version | Text Only | Print | Product List | Glossary On
Versions: 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44 45 46 47 48 49 50
FXUS64 KHGX 281205

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX
705 AM CDT SAT MAY 28 2016

The main aviation forecast issues will be whether (or not)
regional terminals will experience return afternoon convection
and possible early Sunday morning fog development. Much drier mid
to upper level air advecting in from the west...with higher
pressure expanding in from the east and south...will likely
suppress any widespread afternoon thunderstorm activity. With
that being will be a transition day as southern upper
ridging builds northward and any weak shortwave disturbance
moving atop this ridge could flare up late afternoon scattered
shower and/or storm behavior (maybe similar to a week ago?).
Higher resolution modeling does pinpoint some late afternoon
discrete cell initialization over the central and southern
counties...hence the 21-00Z VCTS mention. Either low stratus or
fog may become a problem early Sunday morning. Near calm winds...
mainly clear skies and damp grounds may be conducive for overnight
/early Sunday radiative fog development. 31



Clouds continue to clear out of Southeast Texas early this morning as
yesterday`s MCS moves off to the east. Some low clouds and fog (some
dense) will have a chance to develop across the area before sunrise.
Daytime heating could provide an opportunity for some shower/thunderstorm
development today, but think the majority of the area will stay dry
as upper level heights rise a little in response to ridging building
into the area from the south. If anything does develop during peak heating,
some model soundings indicate that they could become strong or severe.
But again, think the majority of us will be rain free. With wet grounds
and light winds, parts of Southeast Texas could see some fog development
again later tonight through early Sunday morning. Will continue to carry
low rain chances on Sunday as possible activity moves into the area
from the west and southwest. Look for a similar forecast (low rain chances)
for Memorial Day. It will be warm and muggy over the holiday weekend
with heat index values peaking in the afternoon in the mid to upper
90s. Better rain chances come back into the forecast beginning on Tuesday
as the holiday weekend ridging begins to break down and the next mid/upper
level trough organizes out west. This slow eastward moving system will
bring periods of showers and thunderstorms to the state with better
rain chances probably across our western/northern counties on Tuesday
and Wednesday working their way eastward for the rest of our area on
Thursday and maybe Friday. At this time, the end of next week and next
weekend are looking quiet as a developing eastern U.S. trough aloft
sets up a drier northwest flow across our area.  42

The western expansion of eastern U.S. high pressure will relax the
recently tight onshore pressure gradient. Responding southeasterlies
this weekend will remain in the 5 to 15 knot range with lowering
weekend seas back to average 3 to 4 foot heights...2 to 3 feet
Memorial Day...with a 6 second period. Weak disturbances moving up
from Mexico atop the slow expansion of southern Gulf upper ridging
will keep slight rain and storm chances around through Memorial Day.
Due to relatively lower onshore winds and less rough
currents should not be overly strong. currents will
still exist and swimmers are strongly discouraged to swim near groins...
jetties or within passes. Always swim with a buddy and near a lifeguard.


College Station (CLL)      87  73  86  71  85 /  20  20  20  20  20
Houston (IAH)              88  73  88  71  87 /  20  10  20  10  20
Galveston (GLS)            84  78  84  77  84 /  20  10  20  10  20


TX...Dense Fog Advisory until 8 AM CDT this morning FOR THE FOLLOWING
     ZONES: Brazos...Burleson...Washington.

     FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES: Coastal waters from Freeport to
     the Matagorda Ship Channel out 20 NM...Coastal waters from
     High Island to Freeport out 20 NM...Matagorda Bay...Waters
     from Freeport to the Matagorda Ship Channel from 20 to 60
     NM...Waters from High Island to Freeport from 20 to 60 NM.



Aviation/Marine...31 is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.