Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Northern Indiana

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FXUS63 KIWX 261144

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Northern Indiana
644 AM EST Sun Feb 26 2017

Issued at 414 AM EST Sun Feb 26 2017

Little more than a few flurries are expected over northwest
Indiana into southern Lower Michigan today as an upper level
disturbance moves rapidly eastward through the southern Great
Lakes. By Tuesday rain chances return with highs on Tuesday
warming into the middle 50s to lower 60s.


.SHORT TERM...(Today and Tonight)
Issued at 413 AM EST Sun Feb 26 2017

Lake enhanced flurries on marked downtrend/ending amid backing and
thinning cloud bearing flow as inversion heights rapidly descend.
Only potential for a few additional flurries/greater cloud coverage
associated with weak shortwave now into western IA to traverse
through flat/broad trof through southern Great Lakes region.
Otherwise with marked increasing heights along with upstream
shortwave to provide marked/channeled 925mb warm air advection push
to fully expunge present low level thermal trof over cwa...and have
afforded a bit warmer than blend/prior forecast as well as a slight
upward nudge to lows tonight in absence of fully decoupled boundary


.LONG TERM...(Monday through Saturday)
Issued at 413 AM EST Sun Feb 26 2017

Little change with respect to mid week rain chances. Focus on what
should be two bouts relegated primarily to overnight hours Monday
night and again Tuesday night. The latter of which to likely contain
highest qpf per additional gomex feed in advance of slow eastward
advance of front amid numerous frontal wave ejections along it.
Dynamics/thermodynamics do not present too impressive though with
potential for limited heating/rather meager surface dewpoints. Have
added conditional thunder mention to Tue night as upper support
appears well lagged/not tied well to optimal diurnal cycle. Focus
for redevelopment/intensification should be shifted well east of CWA
for Dy4/amid fropa/falling afternoon temps. Lake effect potential
thereafter/duration seems to be disrupted by fair agreement with
respect to approaching clipper system in upstream northwest flow
late Thu/Thu night. Strong Siberian wave ejection amid circum polar
lobe phasing seems plausible per latest water vapor imagery loop and
have by in to this particular signal. Squelched overzealous blended
pops Friday night as arctic ridge advances into western Upper Great
Lakes. Once again brevity of cold/seasonable airmass again the theme
as mid tropospheric heights rapidly recover into next weekend.


.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Monday Morning)
Issued at 636 AM EST Sun Feb 26 2017

The surface ridge axis was shifting east rapidly early this
morning. Winds over northern Indiana had already backed to the
southwest. Winds will increase today to between 15 and 20 knots
with gusts to 25 knots, but then diminish this evening with
diurnal cooling. Conditions are expected to remain VFR.


LM...Small Craft Advisory until 10 AM EST this morning for LMZ043-046.

     Gale Warning from 10 AM this morning to 7 PM EST this evening
     for LMZ043-046.



LONG TERM...Murphy

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