Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Little Rock, AR

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000
FXUS64 KLZK 021732 AAB
AFDLZK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LITTLE ROCK AR
1230 PM CDT SUN AUG 2 2015

.AVIATION...

OVERALL VFR FLIGHT CONDITIONS WILL BE SEEN OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
WINDS WILL BE FROM THE S TO SW OVER NORTHERN AR AT 5 TO 10 MPH.
WINDS OVER CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN AR WILL BE LIGHT AND VARIABLE OR NE
TO S AT 5 TO 10 MPH. TONIGHT ISOLATED PATCHY FOG WILL BE SEEN IN
THOSE NORMALLY FOG PRONE AREAS...BUT IS NOT EXPECTED TO BE
WIDESPREAD. OVERNIGHT WINDS WILL BECOME LIGHT AND VARIABLE. (59)

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1120 AM CDT SUN AUG 2 2015

.UPDATE...

QUICK UPDATE TO THE FORECAST TO REMOVE MORNING WORDING AND TWEAK
THE TRENDS. OTHERWISE...ANOTHER DRY AND WARM DAY IS EXPECTED
ACROSS THE AREA.

&&

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 332 AM CDT SUN AUG 2 2015/

SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT

ANOTHER QUIET NIGHT/EARLY MRNG NOTED ACRS AR AS A WEAK RDG OF SFC
HIGH PRES WAS SITUATED OVR THE REGION. WITH LGT WINDS AND MOSTLY CLR
SKIES...EARLY MRNG TEMPS RANGED FM THE MID 60S TO THE MID 70S.

THE AFOREMENTIONED SFC HIGH WL LINGER OVR THE FA THRU MON...WITH
DAYTIME HIGHS IN THE 90S. WL SEE A GRADUAL INCRS IN LOW LVL MOISTURE
HEADING INTO MON AS THE HIGH SHIFTS FAR ENOUGH TO THE E TO ALLOW
S/SWLY WINDS TO RETURN TO MOST LOCATIONS. BY TUE...CANNOT RULE OUT
SOME AFTN ISOLD SHRA/TSRA OVR THE AREA.

BY TUE NGT AND WED...AN UPR LVL IMPULSE IS FCST TO PASS EWD ACRS NRN
AR/SRN MO. THIS FEATURE WL INTERACT WITH INCRSD MOISTURE TO PRODUCE
SCTD CONVECTION. HIGHEST POPS WERE MENTIONED OVR NRN PARTS OF THE
FA...CLOSER TO THE TRACK OF THE SHRTWV. RAIN CHCS WL TAPER OFF LATER
WED AND WED NGT FM THE W AS THE UPR ENERGY SHIFTS E OF THE REGION.

FOR TEMP TRENDS...CONTD TO BUMP HIGH TEMPS UP A DEGREE OR TWO OVR
THE NEXT FEW DAYS. INCRSD LOW LVL RH AND CLOUD COVER BY TUE AND WED
WL HOLD HIGHS DOWN JUST A BIT. FCST HEAT INDICES ARE EXPECTED TO RMN
BLW ADVY CRITERIA THRU THE PD.

LONG TERM...THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY

UPPER HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE CENTERED OVER THE SOUTHWEST U.S. TO
BEGIN THE LONG TERM PERIOD. NORTHWEST FLOW WILL BE OVER ARKANSAS.
THIS RIDGE WILL SLOWLY MOVE EAST THROUGH THE PERIOD AND MAY ENTER
WESTERN ARKANSAS BY LATE SATURDAY.

SEVERAL SHORT WAVES ARE EXPECTED TO MOVE THROUGH THE NORTHWEST FLOW
AND BRING CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO THE AREA THURSDAY
AND FRIDAY. IN ADDITION...A WARM FRONT WILL MOVE NORTH THROUGH THE
STATE THURSDAY. THE BEST CHANCES WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE NORTH AND
CENTRAL SECTIONS. SATURDAY LOOKS TO BE DRY AT THIS POINT. HIGH
TEMPERATURES WILL BE MAINLY IN THE 80S AND 90S.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
BATESVILLE AR     95  70  96  69 /  10  10  10   0
CAMDEN AR         98  67 100  71 /   0   0  10  10
HARRISON AR       92  69  94  73 /  10  10  10  10
HOT SPRINGS AR    98  70  99  74 /   0   0  10   0
LITTLE ROCK   AR  97  72  98  74 /   0  10   0   0
MONTICELLO AR     96  71  99  74 /   0   0  10   0
MOUNT IDA AR      98  67  99  71 /   0  10  10  10
MOUNTAIN HOME AR  93  68  94  71 /  10  10  10   0
NEWPORT AR        94  71  96  74 /   0  10  10   0
PINE BLUFF AR     97  70  99  73 /   0   0  10   0
RUSSELLVILLE AR   97  69  97  72 /  10  10  10  10
SEARCY AR         96  69  97  71 /   0  10  10   0
STUTTGART AR      95  71  97  74 /   0   0   0   0
&&

.LZK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.
&&

$$

224


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