Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Little Rock, AR

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FXUS64 KLZK 142308 AAA
AFDLZK

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Little Rock AR
508 PM CST Thu Dec 14 2017

.AVIATION...
Vfr conditions expected through the taf period, with no
significant weather or obstructions to visibility.
&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...(ISSUED 222 PM CST Thu Dec 14 2017)
Short Term...Tonight through Saturday

While some model differences are noted at this time, they do not
appear to be significant enough that they would end up having any
major impacts on our sensible weather. That being said, a blend of
forecast solutions is preferred this afternoon.

Satellite imagery shows mid level clouds across the north that are
associated with the ongoing cold air advection pattern. Another
broad area of clouds is located to the south of the state near an
old frontal boundary. Temperatures have been slow to rise this
afternoon as deeper cold air continues to overspread the state.
Seasonably cold temperatures are expected both tonight and Friday as
well.

Overall pattern continues to feature strong west coast ridge with
positively tilted upper trough extending from the desert southwest
through the Great Lakes. Energy dropping down the spine of the
Rockies will eventually close off into an upper low near the Baja
Peninsula by Saturday morning. This feature will eject to the
northeast during the day Saturday and turn the upper flow back to
the southwest with a subsequent increase in both moisture and
temperatures.

Timing suggests that this energy and moisture will not impact the
forecast area during the period and will leave forecast dry at this
time. Main impacts from this system will be felt during the long
term period.

Long Term...Saturday Night through Thursday

The extended period will start with an unsettled weather pattern,
with a deep low pressure trough over the western US, while a high
pressure ridge over the eastern US. A southwest upper flow will
bring a weather system to the region, and rain will be in the
forecast late Saturday night and much of Sunday. Enough of moisture
will have returned to the region, with forecast precip water values
finally getting above 1 inch over AR, and near 1.5 inches in
southeast AR. Likely to steady rain and showers will be seen over
AR, with around a half to near 1 inch of rain in most spots, while
southeast AR could exceed an inch. This system moves east late
Sunday to Monday, while additional upper shortwave energy is
depicted in model runs that may produce lighter rain over mostly
eastern AR later Monday to Tuesday, before pushing totally out of
the region and AR. Then dry weather settles in over the region for
much of the rest of the week. Overall temperatures will be at or
above normal values with modified Pacific air moves through the
region, not colder Canadian air much farther north of AR.
&&

.LZK Watches/Warnings/Advisories...NONE.
&&

$$

Aviation...57


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