Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Little Rock, AR

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FXUS64 KLZK 082056
AFDLZK

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Little Rock AR
256 PM CST Thu Dec 8 2016

.SHORT TERM...Tonight Through Sunday

The main forecast item of note for the short term is the cold air
moving in. High pressure was centered over northwest Kansas this
afternoon and was moving this direction. Dewpoints had dropped
into the low teens and even single digits across the northern half
of the state. With cold, dry air moving into the state coupled
with expected lessening winds and clear skies, cold overnight
temperatures are still expected tonight and Friday night as well.
That said, the latest guidance has warmed the expected lows ever
so slightly. Minor upward adjustments were made to the expected
lows for tonight and Friday night, but still expect widespread
teens and 20s across the state Friday and Saturday mornings.
Daytime readings will also be cool, with highs in the 30s to low
40s expected tomorrow, and low to mid 40s on Saturday.

Saturday will be a moderating day as a zonal flow pattern develops
aloft and a warm advection pattern begins to move back in ahead of
the next system slated to arrive during the first of the long term
period. It will still be a dry, with only an increase in mid and
high clouds expected.

&&

.LONG TERM...Sunday Through Sunday

Models are showing a bit of differences than the runs yesterday,
namely with the shortwave moving across the area Sunday into
Monday. Generally speaking this system looks like it is going to
be a bit weaker. Looks as if there could be some mixed wintry
precipitation across the north Sunday morning, possibly some snow
mixed with sleet for a bit of time.

Another shortwave will move across the area midweek, and although
this wave looks to be fairly weak at the moment, I am concerned
about another arctic airmass pushing into the area. I think there is
certainly a possibility that we will see a mix of wintry precip
again across the north on Tuesday night, turning to snow by
Wednesday morning. This is still quite a ways off, and the models
are having a bit of difficulty coming to a consensus - so with that
in mind I`m not hitting this too hard in the grids just yet.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Batesville AR     19  35  21  40 /   0   0   0   0
Camden AR         23  42  23  47 /   0   0   0  10
Harrison AR       14  35  21  42 /   0   0   0   0
Hot Springs AR    22  40  24  44 /   0   0   0  10
Little Rock   AR  23  38  23  43 /   0   0   0   0
Monticello AR     24  40  24  46 /   0   0   0   0
Mount Ida AR      19  40  22  44 /   0   0   0  10
Mountain Home AR  16  34  21  41 /   0   0   0   0
Newport AR        20  35  21  40 /   0   0   0   0
Pine Bluff AR     23  38  23  44 /   0   0   0   0
Russellville AR   20  38  23  43 /   0   0   0   0
Searcy AR         20  36  21  41 /   0   0   0   0
Stuttgart AR      22  37  24  43 /   0   0   0   0
&&

.LZK Watches/Warnings/Advisories...NONE.
&&

$$

Short Term...64 / Long Term...53


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