Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Little Rock, AR

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000
FXUS64 KLZK 190122 AAA
AFDLZK

Area Forecast Discussion...Updated for Aviation
National Weather Service Little Rock AR
825 PM CDT Wed Oct 18 2017

.AVIATION...
Other than some high clouds over Arkansas, mostly VFR conditions
will be noted through Thursday.

There will be some patchy dense fog near bodies of water early
Thursday, and this will create brief MVFR/IFR conditions.

Winds will be light/variable overnight, and southeast at 5 to
9 mph on Thursday. (46)
&&

.SHORT TERM...Tonight Through Friday
Dry conditions will continue during this period.

A persistent low level ridge from eastern Texas to the mid Atlantic
region will continue influence sensible weather conditions across
the mid south through Friday. A southern stream, upper level impluse
will approach the state late in the period.  Forecast trajectories
suggest very limited moisture will be available across the state
through the end of this period.

Will continue to monitor fire weather conditions. At this time,
forecast afternoon wind speed values during this period are too low
to support any fire weather headlines.

&&

.LONG TERM...Friday Night Through Wednesday
Upper ridge will be well east of us at the beginning of the period.
With a high-amplitude trough digging down into the southern plains,
southwest flow will develop in the upper levels. Surface winds will
become more southerly. This will all allow for increased low and mid-
level moisture, as surface low pressure drags a cold front into the
region late Saturday night.

Not only will this be our best chance at rainfall in some time, we
will see the highest areal coverage we`ve seen in some time. While
this won`t be a heavy rain, I think it`s a good bet many areas of
the state could see an inch or more.

Rain chances will diminish late Sunday, as surface high pressure
moves in on northwest flow aloft. Cooler air will follow the front,
and temperatures will end the long term periods below seasonal
averages.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Batesville AR     50  80  52  80 /   0   0   0   0
Camden AR         49  81  53  83 /   0   0   0   0
Harrison AR       50  80  52  81 /   0   0   0   0
Hot Springs AR    50  80  53  79 /   0   0   0   0
Little Rock   AR  50  80  53  81 /   0   0   0   0
Monticello AR     50  80  54  82 /   0   0   0   0
Mount Ida AR      48  80  52  79 /   0   0   0  10
Mountain Home AR  49  81  51  79 /   0   0   0   0
Newport AR        49  80  52  80 /   0   0   0   0
Pine Bluff AR     49  81  52  80 /   0   0   0   0
Russellville AR   48  80  51  78 /   0   0   0   0
Searcy AR         47  80  50  80 /   0   0   0   0
Stuttgart AR      49  81  53  80 /   0   0   0   0
&&

.LZK Watches/Warnings/Advisories...NONE.
&&

$$

Short Term...55 / Long Term...57



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