Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Little Rock, AR

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FXUS64 KLZK 271942
AFDLZK

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Little Rock AR
242 PM CDT Mon Mar 27 2017

.SHORT TERM...Tonight Through Wednesday Night
Data from local radars indicate a few convective cells remaining
in the forecast area, with much more widespread activity noted to
the east of the area. Any remaining cells will diminish shortly
after sunset.

Cold front now pushing into central sections of the state is
expected to stall across southern sections late tonight. This
feature, while weakening, may still be able to focus widely
scattered convection Tuesday afternoon.

Another strong upper level system will approach the mid-south on
Wednesday. Some similarities are noted between forecast model
output, and characteristics of the system that affected the region
late Friday. More moisture is forecast to be associated with this
particular system, and much more precipitation is expected.

&&

.LONG TERM...Thursday Through Monday
Even though convection will be winding down, rain chances will
linger into the long term as moisture wraps around the departing
system. Additional rainfall amounts will be under half an inch. By
the weekend, sunshine will make an appearance as ridging returns.
Temperatures through the weekend will be in the 60s/70s with
overnight lows in the 40s/50s. Model spread increases towards the
end of the weekend as the next round of convection unfolds. ECMWF is
a bit more progressive pushing the bulk of the rainfall through on
Sunday night, while the GFS holds most of the convection back until
Monday. Went with a blend for now, staying conservative with the
rainfall amounts.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Batesville AR     51  69  54  75 /  30  10  20  40
Camden AR         56  78  62  81 /  20  20  20  20
Harrison AR       47  69  54  70 /  10  10  30  60
Hot Springs AR    53  75  61  76 /  10  10  20  30
Little Rock   AR  53  75  59  79 /  20  10  20  30
Monticello AR     58  79  61  82 /  20  20  20  20
Mount Ida AR      50  75  60  75 /  10  10  30  40
Mountain Home AR  48  70  52  73 /  10  10  20  50
Newport AR        52  69  54  75 /  40  10  10  30
Pine Bluff AR     56  75  60  81 /  20  10  10  20
Russellville AR   50  73  58  75 /  10  10  30  40
Searcy AR         51  72  56  78 /  30  10  10  30
Stuttgart AR      55  74  60  79 /  30  10  10  20
&&

.LZK Watches/Warnings/Advisories...NONE.
&&

$$

Short Term...55 / Long Term...61


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