Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Little Rock, AR

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FXUS64 KLZK 251918
AFDLZK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LITTLE ROCK AR
218 PM CDT SAT OCT 25 2014

.DISCUSSION...

MAIN CONCERNS THIS FORECAST CYCLE ARE FOG POTENTIAL TONIGHT AND
SUNDAY AM...TEMPERATURE WARM UP THROUGH MONDAY...THEN CHANCES OF
CONVECTION TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY.

MORNING FOG DID DISSIPATE QUICKLY AFTER SUNRISE...AND WITH
CONTINUED SIMILAR WEATHER CONDITIONS TONIGHT...WILL AGAIN HAVE IT
IN THE FORECAST. OTHERWISE SKIES ARE SUNNY TODAY WITH TEMPS
WARMING TO THE UPPER 70S AND MAINLY 80S STATE WIDE THIS AFTERNOON.
SURFACE WINDS HAVE BEEN S TO SW AT 5 TO 10 MPH. THE UPPER HIGH
PRESSURE RIDGE OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS TO THE WESTERN PLAINS HAS
BUILT IN OVER THE CENTRAL U.S. AND WILL KEEP THE DRY AND WELL ABOVE
NORMAL TEMPS GOING THIS WEEKEND.

&&

.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT

MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES ARE EXPECTED TONIGHT WITH AGAIN SOME FOG
FORMATION...MAINLY IN WESTERN TO CENTRAL AR. LOWS TONIGHT WILL BE
IN THE 50S TO SOME AROUND 60 DEGREES. WARM AND SUNNY FOR SUNDAY AS
THE UPPER RIDGE BUILDS IN A BIT MORE OVER THE REGION. HIGHS MAINLY
IN THE 80S. SUNDAY NIGHT AND INTO TUESDAY...THE UPPER RIDGE
GRADUALLY BREAKS DOWN AND MOVES EAST. SHORT WAVE ENERGY IS SEEN ON
MONDAY AND INCREASING CLOUDS WILL BE SEEN. MONDAY NIGHT AND
ESPECIALLY ON TUESDAY...THE RAIN CHANCES INCREASE WITH AN UPPER
TROUGH AND FRONTAL BOUNDARY MOVING THROUGH AR. SLIGHT CHANCES ARE
POSSIBLE MONDAY NIGHT IN THE NW...THEN BETTER CHANCES OF
CONVECTION ON TUESDAY AS THE FRONT SAGS INTO AR. AR THIS TIME
SEVERE STORM THREAT APPEARS LOW AND ISOLATED. MODEL TIMING HAS THE
FRONT INTO NW AR BY SUNRISE TUESDAY...THEN SLOWLY MOVING THROUGH
THE STATE AND NOT PUSHING OUT UNTIL WEDNESDAY. THE UPPER LOW IS
WELL OFF TO THE NORTH OVER THE GREAT LAKES AND SPEED WILL BE A BIT
SLOW. TEMPS WILL COOL BACK CLOSER TO NORMAL VALUES BEHIND THE
FRONT. HIGHS IN THE 60S TO 70S...WHILE LOWS FROM THE 40S TO 50S.

&&

.LONG TERM...WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY

CHANCES FOR SHRA/TSRA CONTINUED INTO WED FOR S AR AS COLD FRONT
BEGINS TO SLOW ITS MOVEMENT TOWARD THE SOUTH. PCPN SHOULD BE SE OF
THE FORECAST AREA BY WEDNESDAY NIGHT.

NEXT SHORT WAVE ON THURSDAY WILL PROBABLY BRING ONLY CLOUDS...AS THE
BULK OF THE MOISTURE WILL HAVE BEEN CLEARED OUT BY THE COLD FRONT.

AFTER THAT...NWLY FLOW ALOFT WILL PREVAIL. ALTHOUGH LONGER RANGE
MODELS ARE NOT IN THE BEST OF AGREEMENT...IT DOES APPEAR THAT
MOISTURE WILL REMAIN TO THE WEST OF AR. THUS...ANY WEAK WAVES DIVING
DOWN IN THE NWLY FLOW SHOULD BRING ONLY CLOUDS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
BATESVILLE AR     57  85  60  83 /   0   0   0   0
CAMDEN AR         58  87  56  86 /   0   0   0   0
HARRISON AR       58  86  61  82 /   0   0   0  10
HOT SPRINGS AR    59  86  59  83 /   0   0   0   0
LITTLE ROCK   AR  58  87  59  85 /   0   0   0   0
MONTICELLO AR     58  87  57  86 /   0   0   0   0
MOUNT IDA AR      57  85  58  83 /   0   0   0  10
MOUNTAIN HOME AR  56  86  60  82 /   0   0   0  10
NEWPORT AR        57  85  60  83 /   0   0   0   0
PINE BLUFF AR     58  86  58  85 /   0   0   0   0
RUSSELLVILLE AR   56  86  58  83 /   0   0   0  10
SEARCY AR         56  85  58  83 /   0   0   0   0
STUTTGART AR      58  86  58  84 /   0   0   0   0
&&

.LZK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...59 / LONG TERM...28





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