Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Little Rock, AR

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FXUS64 KLZK 020321
AFDLZK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LITTLE ROCK AR
921 PM CST SUN MAR 1 2015

.UPDATE...
CLOUDS CONTINUE ACROSS ARKANSAS. LIGHT RAIN CONTINUES TO MOVE
ACROSS SOUTHEAST ARKANSAS. WILL RAIN CHANCES IN FOR TONIGHT AND
VERY LIGHT FREEZING RAIN IN THE NORTH. AREAS OF FREEZING FOG ARE
ALSO POSSIBLE IN THE NORTH WITH SUCH AN INVERSION OVER THE AREA.
INCREASED CLOUD COVER OVER THE CENTRAL AND SOUTH FOR
OVERNIGHT...AS THEY SHOULD NOT ERODE. ADJUSTED TEMPERATURES BASED
CURRENT OBSERVATIONS AND TRENDS.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 548 PM CST SUN MAR 1 2015/

AVIATION...
WIDESPREAD IFR TO OCCASIONAL LIFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH
THE PERIOD. CEILINGS MAY LIFT BRIEFLY EARLY MONDAY MORNING BUT
FOR THE MOST PART WILL REMAIN LOW. AREAS OF FOG WILL ALSO PERSIST
AS A VERY MOIST AIR MASS REMAINS IN PLACE. LIGHT EAST TO SOUTHEAST
WINDS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE PERIOD. PERIODS OF LIGHT RAIN WILL
PERSIST THIS EVENING WITH PATCHY DRIZZLE AFTERWARDS.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 359 PM CST SUN MAR 1 2015/

SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT

SCATTERED PRECIPITATION CONTINUES ACROSS SOUTHERN ARKANSAS. WITH THE
CLOUD COVER AND PRECIPITATION TODAY...TEMPERATURES STRUGGLED TO
CLIMB INTO THE 30S. AS TEMPERATURES FALL TONIGHT...THERE WILL BE THE
POTENTIAL FOR LIGHT FREEZING RAIN/FREEZING DRIZZLE ACROSS NORTHERN
ARKANSAS...AS WELL AS FREEZING FOG. WILL LET EVENING SHIFT MONITOR
FOR HEADLINES...BUT ANY OCCURRENCES ARE EXPECTED TO BE LIGHT.

COLD FRONT WILL STALL SOUTH OF THE AREA...BUT HAVE KEPT SCATTERED
MENTIONS OF RAINFALL ACROSS THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE STATE.
TEMPERATURES WILL NOT WARM MUCH...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE SOUTH...BUT
ALL AREAS SHOULD GET TO AT LEAST 40. AS THE FRONT LIFTS NORTH MONDAY
NIGHT...TEMPERATURES WILL BE NEARLY STEADY.

SPRING WILL ARRIVE TUESDAY...BUT WILL NOT LAST FOR LONG. HIGHS WILL
APPROACH 70 ACROSS THE SOUTH...ALLOWING FOR ENOUGH ENERGY TO BRING
THUNDERSTORMS BACK TO THE FORECAST AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM
THE NORTH.

TEMPERATURES WILL FALL MARKEDLY BEHIND THE COLD FRONT...WITH
READINGS BELOW FREEZING ACROSS THE NORTH BY SUNRISE WEDNESDAY. HIGHS
ON WEDNESDAY WILL BE IN THE MORNING HOURS...BEFORE FALLING DURING
THE DAY. THIS WILL BRING WIDESPREAD WINTER PRECIPITATION TO THE
REGION WEDNESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT.

THERE ARE STILL MANY QUESTIONS ABOUT THIS WINTER EVENT...AND WENT
WITH A BLEND OF GUIDANCE FOR NOW. IF MOISTURE STAYS HIGH BEHIND THE
FRONT...FROZEN PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS COULD BE SIGNIFICANT.
ALSO...GUIDANCE HAS DIFFERING TEMPERATURE PROFILES...WITH FREEZING
RAIN/SLEET/SNOW ALL POSSIBLE.

THIS WILL CONTINUE TO BE FINE TUNED IN THE COMING DAYS...WITH MANY
CHANGES BETWEEN NOW AND WEDNESDAY. STAY TUNED TO THE LATEST
FORECASTS.

LONG TERM...THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY
A STRONG FRONT WILL EXIT THE REGION TO THE SOUTH TO BEGIN THE
EXTENDED PERIOD. THERE MAY BE SOME LINGERING LIGHT SNOW IN THE
SOUTHEAST HALF OF THE STATE EARLY THURSDAY...FOLLOWED BY CLEARING.
ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER ARKANSAS...AND WELL BELOW
NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE IN THE FORECAST.

THE HIGH WILL EXIT TO THE EAST TOWARD THE WEEKEND...WITH
TEMPERATURES STARTING TO MODIFY. DRY WEATHER WILL CONTINUE...AND IT
WILL FEEL CLOSER TO SEASONAL. EVEN SO...READINGS WILL STILL BE
SUBPAR.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
BATESVILLE AR     31  42  36  60 /  20  20  30  70
CAMDEN AR         38  43  40  69 /  60  50  40  50
HARRISON AR       25  40  36  58 /  10  10  30  60
HOT SPRINGS AR    35  42  39  63 /  50  40  40  60
LITTLE ROCK   AR  35  41  38  65 /  50  40  40  60
MONTICELLO AR     38  43  41  69 /  70  50  40  50
MOUNT IDA AR      34  42  39  62 /  40  40  40  70
MOUNTAIN HOME AR  26  41  35  59 /  10  10  30  60
NEWPORT AR        32  43  38  61 /  30  20  40  70
PINE BLUFF AR     36  41  39  67 /  60  50  40  60
RUSSELLVILLE AR   34  43  38  61 /  30  20  40  70
SEARCY AR         33  41  38  63 /  40  20  40  70
STUTTGART AR      35  41  38  66 /  50  40  40  60
&&

.LZK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.
&&

$$

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