Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Little Rock, AR
FXUS64 KLZK 310124 AAB
Area Forecast Discussion...Update
National Weather Service Little Rock AR
820 PM CDT SAT JUL 30 2016
Evening convection continues to move southeast over southern AR.
Have seen a slow weakening of the convection. Behind the main area
lighter rain with some limited thunder was seen. Otherwise this
main convection area will move out of AR through midnight. Some
additional convection is forming over OK and may continue to see it
move east tonight. Will keep some chance of convection over AR
tonight. Temperatures have cooled due to clouds and rain this
evening to the 70s, while dew point temperatures are from the upper
60s to lower 70s. Expect lows tonight to be in the upper 60s to mid
70s. Some patchy fog may also be seen and will add to forecast. Late
evening update will fine tune chances of rain overnight and adjust a
few other elements. (59)
.Prev Discussion.../ Issued 635 PM CDT JUL 30 2016/
Evening convection will affect KLIT, KPBF and KLLQ and will use VCTS
and Tempo groups at Taf sites. VFR conditions are forecast overall
with MVFR conditions with storms. Have seen heavy rain, gusty winds
to around 25 TO 35 knots with storms and a lot of lightning. The
storms will continue to drift southeast and gradually weaken through
midnight. Overnight, areas of MVFR with isolated showers or
thunderstorms may be seen, with some fog and low clouds forming.
Winds will be light and variable or less than 10 mph from the south.
Sunday will start with patchy MVFR conditions to mainly VFR with
ceilings. Then again isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms
in the afternoon to evening. (59)
.Prev Discussion.../ Issued 222 PM CDT SAT JUL 30 2016/
.SHORT TERM...Tonight Through Monday
Scattered convection is ongoing/developing across northern and
western Arkansas this afternoon. Expect this to fill in somewhat and
propagate southward through mostly the western half of the state
through the afternoon and early evening hours. Will carry chance
PoPs into the eastern parts of the forecast area but it appears
western Arkansas will be the focus for showers and thunderstorms
An upper ridge will begin to build back into the region from the
southwest on Sunday. Northwest flow aloft will likely bring one more
MCS into the state during the day tomorrow...so will continue with
chance PoPs for Sunday across the eastern half of the forecast area.
Further west...will hold on to slight chances. The ridge will not be
firmly established by tomorrow afternoon just yet so think some
isolated storms could pop there.
Temperature wise...warm overnight temperatures and highs in the low
90s will be seen.
.LONG TERM...Monday Night Through Saturday
There`s not much I can say without sounding like a broken record,
but here goes.
The upper ridge will expand through the week, choking off large-scale
moisture, allowing for only isolated/widely scattered diurnal
convection. Humidity will remain high, with afternoon heat index
values approaching the 100-105 degree range. Fortunately, the
ridge`s influence will start to diminish in the weekend,
bringing a better shot at showers/storms to the area.
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Batesville AR 73 92 75 95 / 30 40 20 20
Camden AR 75 95 76 96 / 20 30 10 20
Harrison AR 69 89 72 93 / 30 40 20 20
Hot Springs AR 75 94 76 95 / 30 30 10 20
Little Rock AR 75 94 76 96 / 30 30 20 20
Monticello AR 76 94 76 94 / 20 30 20 30
Mount Ida AR 74 93 75 94 / 30 30 10 20
Mountain Home AR 70 90 73 94 / 30 40 20 20
Newport AR 73 91 74 94 / 20 40 20 30
Pine Bluff AR 74 93 75 94 / 20 40 20 30
Russellville AR 74 94 75 96 / 30 40 20 20
Searcy AR 74 93 74 95 / 30 40 20 30
Stuttgart AR 74 93 76 94 / 20 40 20 30
Short Term...57 / Long Term...64