Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Pueblo, CO

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FXUS65 KPUB 250510
AFDPUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PUEBLO CO
1110 PM MDT THU JUL 24 2014

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 215 PM MDT THU JUL 24 2014

...HEAT CONTINUES TOMORROW...

ANOTHER HOT ONE OVER THE PLAINS TODAY. STILL A COUPLE HOURS OF
HEATING LEFT...AND TEMPS ALREADY AT 100 DEGREES FOR SOME OF THE
HOT SPOTS LIKE KLAA. CONVECTION HAS BEEN SLOW TO DEVELOP OVER THE
MTS...WITH LITTLE IN THE WAY OF FORCING...BUT HEATING AND MONSOONAL
MOISTURE SHOULD CONTINUE TO HELP FIRE UP SOME ISOLD-SCT STORMS THRU
MID-EVENING. LOOKS LIKE THE BEST COVERAGE WILL BE OVER NRN PORTIONS
OF THE CWA...AS THE MONSOONAL PLUME IS ORIENTED FROM THE SW TO NE
OVER OUR AREA...AS EVIDENCED BY THE EARLY STORMS FIRING OVER NE
CO THIS AFTERNOON. STEERING FLOW IS NOT TOO STRONG BUT STORMS
ARE MOVING...AND PWATS NOT OVERLY HIGH SO FLOODING POTENTIAL
LOOKS MINIMAL BUT NOT ZERO THRU THIS EVE. SHOULD SEE THINGS
WIND DOWN AFTER 04-05Z TONIGHT.

TOMORROW...NOT MUCH OF A CHANGE OVERALL...BUT THE RIDGE DOES SUBTLY
BREAK DOWN A BIT MORE...AND THERE ARE WEAK PV ANOMALIES THAT SHOW UP
IN THE AFTERNOON...SO PERHAPS ANOTHER MODEST UPTICK IN CONVECTION
OVER THE AREA TOMORROW AFTERNOON. THE MONSOON PLUME WILL BE ORIENTED
IN MORE OF A W-E AXIS PRETTY MUCH CENTERED THROUGH CENTRAL CO...SO
THERE SHOULD BE A BETTER CHANCE OF CONVECTION OVER ERN AND SRN
PORTIONS OF THE CWA. WITH MINIMAL CAPE AND SHEAR...SVR THREAT LOOKS
MINIMAL AT BEST. H7 TEMPS STILL IN THE 19 PLUS DEGREE RANGE...SO
UPPER 90S AGAIN LOOK LIKELY ACROSS THE PLAINS...MAYBE 100 PLUS FOR
THE HOTTER LOCATIONS. ENJOY THE HEAT WHILE IT LASTS. ROSE

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 215 PM MDT THU JUL 24 2014

ON SAT THE UPR RIDGE WL BE CENTERED OVR NM AND THE TX PANHANDLE. A
FRONT IS EXPECTED TO MAKE ITS WAY INTO SERN CO SAT MORNING...
BRINGING SOME BREEZY NORTHERLY WINDS TO THE AREA. BY LATE SAT
MORNING IT LOOKS LIKE SOME SHOWERS/TSTMS WL DEVELOP OVR THE MTN
AREAS...ESPECIALLY OVR THE CENTRAL CO MTNS.  DURING THE AFTERNOON
HOURS ISOLD PCPN MAY DEVELOP OR SPREAD OVR THE PLAINS.  HIGH TEMPS
ON SAT SHOULD BE AROUND AVERAGE TO ABOUT 5 DEGREES ABOVE.

ON SUN AND MON THE UPR RIDGE IS EXPECTED TO BE CENTERED OVR NM AND
PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES ARE FORECAST TO INCREASE OVR MUCH OF THE
FORECAST AREA.  LOW TO MID LEVEL UPSLOPE FLOW SHOULD ALSO HELP TO
INCREASE CHANCES FOR PCPN ALONG THE ERN MTNS.  THE FLOW ALOFT IS
FORECAST TO BE AROUND 10 KTS ON SUN AND 10-15 KTS ON MON.
THUS...WITH THE INCREASED MSTR AND EXPECTED SLOW STORM MOVEMENT...
HEAVY RAIN WL BE A THREAT. HIGH TEMPS SUN AND MON WL BE COOLER.  ON
TUE A SHORTWAVE TROF IS FORECAST TO MOVE INTO THE AREA WHICH WL HELP
TO ENHANCE PCPN CHANCES. INCREASED NW FLOW ALOFT WL ALSO INCREASE
THE SHEAR AND CHANCES FOR SEVERE STORMS. PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES
REMAIN HIGH OVR ERN AREA AND PCPN CHANCES LOOK FAIRLY HIGH OVR THE
ERN MTNS AND PORTIONS OF THE ERN PLAINS.

&&

.AVIATION...ISSUED AT 1109 PM MDT THU JUL 24 2014

VFR CONDITIONS ARE ANTICIPATED AT THE KALS...KCOS AND KPUB TAF
SITES THROUGH TONIGHT.

&&

.PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$



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