Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Pueblo, CO

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FXUS65 KPUB 282139
AFDPUB

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Pueblo CO
339 PM MDT THU JUL 28 2016

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Friday)
Issued at 338 PM MDT Thu Jul 28 2016

Currently...Upper high over the Great Basin persists, keeping light N-
NW flow aloft over the CWA. Outflow from storms in northeastern CO
and western KS this morning has pushed into the eastern plains,
reinforcing LLVL moisture for the I-25 corridor and plains. Temps
have risen into the 90s to around 100 F across the plains, into the
80s to near 90 F for the high valleys, and into the 70s for the mt
passes.

Tonight and Tomorrow...Little movement on the upper high expected
over the next 24 hrs, and there is not any definitive upper
shortwave to help kick off convective activity. What is present is a
good amount of llvl moisture thanks to the storm outflow earlier
today. This moisture along with abundant heating has sparked
thunderstorms across the eastern plains, and outflow from these
storms will initiate even more storms through the evening and into
the overnight hrs, with models indicating activity finally waning
between 09-12z. There is the indication that this moisture will also
help lower clouds to develop over portions of the eastern plains, so
included this in the aviation forecasts for COS and PUB.

After a relatively quiet morning, once cloud breaks develop and
heating commences, heating should act upon available moisture for
another round of isolated to scattered storms beginning after 18z.
Max temps tomorrow are expected to be slightly cooler for the high
valleys, but anywhere from 5-15 degrees cooler across the plains due
to a cool morning with a slower start to the heating. Moore


.LONG TERM...(Friday night through Thursday)
Issued at 338 PM MDT Thu Jul 28 2016

.Saturday through Tuesday..A couple of troughs will move across
the northern Rockies during this period. The flow aloft will
become west to southwest with a lee trough developing over the
plains. The lee trough will keep the very moist low level air
mostly to the east of Colorado. Plenty of convection developed
last night over the Sierra Madre with one easterly wave. Satellite
shows other easterly waves moving into northern Mexico which will
continue development of deep convection over northern Mexico.
Southwest flow should be able to tap this deep moisture and advect
it into Colorado. Anticipate moisture increasing on Sunday as
first shortwave moves to our north and southwest flow ahead of
another shortwave moving across the northern Rockies will maintain
the monsoon plume through Tuesday. With the best lower level
moisture remaining to the east of Colorado, highest PoPs and
heaviest rainfall will stay over and near the mountains.

.Wednesday and Thursday...As the trough passes to the north of
Colorado, a surface cold front could move south into eastern
Colorado. The upslope flow behind the front could increase the low
level moisture on the plains with a greater potential for
convection. With monsoon plume remaining over Colorado and an
increase in moisture on the plains, will have to watch for
increased threat of heavy rains. --PGW--

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Friday evening)
Issued at 338 PM MDT Thu Jul 28 2016

KALS: VFR conditions over the next 24 hrs. Isolated storms over the
higher terrain surrounding the site through 03z, but too
low of a probability to include in the TAF.

KCOS and KPUB: Brisk outflow has moved across KCOS and KPUB, with
gusts of 25-30 kts.  KCOS has a better chance for convection
associated with the front, lasting through the evening. Stronger
storms, possibly severe, are expected further east closer to KS with
60 mph wind gusts and large hail the expected threats. LLVL moisture
pushing towards the southern Front Range this evening will likely
produce MVFR cloud deck for much of the I-25 corridor after 09-10z.
After a relatively quiet morning, isolated to scattered storms are
expected to develop once again along the I-25 corridor affected KCOS
and KPUb after 18z. Moore

&&

.PUB Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...MOORE
LONG TERM...PGW
AVIATION...MOORE


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