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000
FXUS65 KPUB 252049
AFDPUB

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Pueblo CO
249 PM MDT Thu Apr 25 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

 - Snow returns to the Continental Divide this evening, with
   2-4 inches of new snow possible for the highest peaks through
   Friday morning.

 - Precipitation starts increasing Friday evening, with snow
   for higher elevations and rain for lower elevations.

 - Precipitation chances increase area wide Saturday, with
   thunderstorms for lower elevations, and snow for higher
   elevations.

 - Showers decrease in coverage Saturday night, with a re-
   blossom of showers Sunday afternoon.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/...
Issued at 241 PM MDT Thu Apr 25 2024

Currently...Upper low pressure system was located over UT and
northern AZ this afternoon, and the increasing southwest flow aloft
was drawing in moisture to the western half of the state as well as
increased cloud cover over the higher terrain and adjacent plains.
Meanwhile, stronger south to southwest gusts to 35 mph were being
reported across the plains, helping to boost temps there as well as
enhance fire danger. Temps as of 2 PM have climbed into the 60s for
the high valleys, and mid 70s to near 90F for the plains.

Tonight...The initial upper low will continue to sweep across the
state this evening, continuing to bring strong south to southwest
winds to much of the area. The severe storm threat across the far
eastern plains will likely diminish quickly by 6 PM, and any storms
that do develop should rapidly move to the E-NE into KS. Isolated to
scattered showers are expected over the higher terrain, bringing a
quick shot of 2 to 4 inches of new snow mainly to the highest peaks
of the central mts. Late tonight as the low continues to push
towards the northeast corner of CO, wraparound will bring a better
shot of shower activity to the eastern plains and Palmer Divide from
10 PM until around 2 AM with isolated thunderstorms possible.
Overnight lows are forecast to drop into the 30s to near 40F for the
high valleys, and 40s across the plains.

Tomorrow...At least for the first half of the day, it should be a
somewhat "down" day as the first upper low pushes northeast out of
the state, and the next more significant precip-maker for the state
drops into the Great Basin. Moisture advection increases once again
by midday with the sw flow aloft, with isolated showers lingering
along the Continental Divide through the morning becoming more
substantial and spreading eastward through the afternoon.
Essentially all of the forecast area, excluding the far southeast
corner, should see shower and thunderstorm activity by mid-
afternoon. The areas with the highest probability of precipitation
will be across the higher terrain, Palmer Divide and El Paso County,
and the peaks of the central mts and the Rampart Range could see
significant new snow starting mid-afternoon and lasting through
Saturday.

As for high temps, one more warm day before a cooldown. Look for
highs in the upper 50s to mid 60s for the high valleys, and mid 60s
to upper 70s for the plains. Moore

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
Issued at 241 PM MDT Thu Apr 25 2024

Synopsis: An active period of weather is expected to start Friday
night and continue through the weekend. A large trough will approach
the area starting Friday night and push across the region Saturday,
brining chances for snow, rain, and thunderstorms to the area, along
with cooler temperatures. A secondary shortwave is anticipated to
pass over the area through Sunday, brining another round of
afternoon snow and rain showers before dissipating quickly Sunday
night. Given the extended period of active, and possibly impactful
weather, this timeframe has been broken into different periods of
interest.

Beyond the weekend, quieter weather prevails as westerly and ridging
flow start to become the primary influences over the region, with
chances for active weather to return midweek next week.

Friday Night: As the the larger trough starts to approach Friday
night, synoptic and orographic forcing will start to rise. This
increasing forcing, in combination with plentiful moisture with the
approaching system, will increase snow showers across the mountains
and valleys, with rain showers for lower elevations. Given minor
instability still present overnight, a rumble of thunder or two can`t
be ruled out, especially for the lower elevations. Snow for the
mountains, particularly the central and Rampart Mountains, is
anticipated to start surging in intensity and coverage during this
period, and could start to cause impact to higher mountain areas and
roads. As for temperatures, a relatively mild night is expected as
clouds help to limit optimal cooling, keeping much of the region
above seasonal values.

Saturday: Now we get to Saturday, the day with the greatest dynamics
over the region and possibly most impactful weather. As previously
mentioned, the larger trough will be pushing over the area at this
point, keeping strong synoptic support/ascent over south central and
southeastern Colorado, along with orographic forcing persisting.
Along with that, a lee cyclone is anticipated to develop and deepen
during the morning and afternoon hours over the southeast plains -
this will be critical to the evolution of things across the lower
elevations. Firstly, with the ongoing orographics and support from
the system, snow showers, at times moderate to heavy, are expected
to continue over the mountains, with rain/snow mix showers pushing
across the valleys during the morning, and then becoming mostly rain
showers during the afternoon. These conditions are anticipated to
persist throughout the day, with scattered to widespread showers. As
for the lower elevations, rainy and storm conditions are expected.
During the morning, as the synoptic scale low pushes over, moist
southeasterly to easterly winds will be streaming into the area, and
in addition to that, as the surface cyclone develops and deepens, it
will allow for surface easterly winds to stream across portions of
the lower elevations. These surface winds, along with the winds
aloft, will setup an area of enhanced forcing immediately along and
west of the I-25 corridor to the Wet and Rampart Mountains. Given
this, a wide pocket of rain is expected to materialize in this area
during early to late Sunday morning. There is potential for this
rainfall to be moderate to heavy given modest instability pooling in
this localized region, which could possibly lead to localized areas
of minor flooding, especially in El Paso County. As the large system
and surface low race to the east during the day, winds throughout
the column will become more northerly, and precipitation across much
of south central and southeastern Colorado will start to decrease in
coverage and intensity. With that said though, as the surface low
does push eastward, it may spark isolated to scattered thunderstorms
along a developing and tightening front across the far eastern
plains, some of which could become strong to severe. Finally, as the
parent trough and surface low exit the area Saturday night,
precipitation across the region will dissipate, with some isolated
to scattered light snow showers remaining along the mountains. For
temperatures, Saturday will be cool and below seasonal values given
a passing cold front and cloudy conditions.

Sunday: For the end of the weekend, active weather continues, though
not to the extent of Saturday. While the larger trough pushes across
the central US, a shortwave trough will swing down the western
periphery of this feature and push over south central and
southeastern Colorado through the day. This wave is not expected to
be as organized or strong as the one from Saturday, but will still
bring an uptick in forcing to the region. Given this quick moving
wave, showers will re-blossom across the area during the afternoon,
with snow along the mountains, and rain for most of the valleys and
lower elevations. As the wave treks eastward during the evening,
precipitation across the area will finally start to lessen in
coverage and intensity, with precipitation quickly dissipating
heading into Monday morning. Looking at temperatures, a cool Spring
day is expected given the passage of a cold front and cloudy skies,
with temperatures hovering around and slightly below seasonal
values.

Monday - Wednesday: For the start of next week like mentioned above,
relatively quieter weather is expected for the first half of the
week, with a possible uptick again for midweek. For the first half
of the week, westerly flow will develop and prevail Monday and
Tuesday. Given the lack of any major forcing with this pattern, dry
conditions are expected. With that said though, isolated light
showers will be possible along the mountains given some weak
orographic forcing. Then during the midweek period, another
shortwave is likely to impact the region, which ensemble and
deterministic models are in decent agreement on. This wave will
bring an uptick in forcing to the area, and therefore, bring
increased precipitation chances. Temperatures during this period
will rebound towards warming values, with much of the region warming
to above seasonal values for the time of year.


&&

.AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY/...
Issued at 241 PM MDT Thu Apr 25 2024

Upper low pressure system sweeping across CO today will bring a
variety of weather to the forecast area. Highest wind gusts will
likely occur over the southeast corner of CO, where gusts to 45 kts
will be possible. Snow returns to the highest peaks of the
Continental Divide, with IFR to LIFR conditions expected over mt
passes over the next 24 hrs. Otherwise, plan on VFR conditions the
next 24 hrs for most areas, with temporary reduction to MVFR with
any isolated convection.

KCOS: Southwest winds to 30 kts becoming N-NW after 02z with VCSH
and broken cloud deck at 090. 5SM and -shra between 04z-09z.

KPUB: S-SW winds gusting to 35 kts through 01z, then NW. VCSH by 08z
with broken cloud deck at 100.

KALS: SW winds gusting to 35 kt through 02z.

&&

.PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Winter Storm Watch from Friday afternoon through late Saturday
night for COZ058-060-081-082.
Red Flag Warning until 8 PM MDT this evening for COZ224-225-
232-233-237.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...MOORE
LONG TERM...SIMCOE
AVIATION...MOORE