Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Pueblo, CO

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FXUS65 KPUB 242234
AFDPUB

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Pueblo CO
334 PM MST Sat Feb 24 2018

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Sunday)
Issued at 334 PM MST Sat Feb 24 2018

...Light snow returns to the Continental Divide later tonight and
into Sunday...

Dry and windy this afternoon across most of the region in the wake
of exiting upper trough, with some areas of blowing snow over the
higher terrain of the Central Mountains. Next wave will drop quickly
into the srn Rockies overnight and into Sun morning, with snow
redeveloping along the Continental Divide this evening and
persisting into early Sun afternoon. Expecting mainly light snow
with this system, with perhaps some accums in the 3-6 inch range
over the highest peaks in the Sawatch Range and eastern San Juans.
Interior valleys and and Sangres could see some spill-over snow
showers during the day Sun, though any accums here would be very
light. Trough will keep winds breezy in spots overnight and through
the day Sunday at many locations, though speeds should be slightly
less than Saturday. Max temps will creep upward a couple degf at
most locations, and a few spots on the plains will approach 50f by
late afternoon. Could get close to critical fire weather conditions
on the plains for a couple hours late in the day as winds mix and RH
values fall toward 15 percent, though situation appears too marginal
for a highlight at this point.

.LONG TERM...(Sunday night through Saturday)
Issued at 334 PM MST Sat Feb 24 2018

Sunday night through Tuesday...Dry and warm westerly flow aloft
across the region into Mon, then shifting to the southwest ahead of
the next upper system to affect the state. These southwest downslope
winds are forecast to strengthen and get gusty at times on Mon, and
combined with the expected high temps and low humidity levels should
produce critical fire weather conditions for portions of the plains.
Therefore, went ahead and hoisted a Fire Weather Watch. Latest
models are suggesting that the incoming system is slowing a bit,
which could mean another hot and dry day with gusty winds for Tue.
Will reevaluate the potential need for another watch tomorrow. Look
for highs in the 40s to near 50F for the high valleys, and 50s to
mid 60s for the plains.

Tuesday night and Wednesday...A quick-moving upper low pressure
system will drop drop across southern NV and CA late Tue, then
rapidly move east across the desert sw Wed before weakening and
ejecting to the northeast late Wed. EC and GFS models are in
closer agreement on placement and timing now, so confidence is
building that this will be a quick-hitting system that will bring
some light accumulations to the mts, and light pcpn to the plains.
A cold front drops south across the Palmer Divide overnight Tue
into Wed, so with the added cloud cover high temps on Wed should
be about 10 degrees cooler. Expect highs in the 40s for the high
valleys, and mid 40s to mid 50s for the plains.

Thursday through Saturday...Models indicate that a longwave trough
over the Pacific and the West Coast will strengthen and push
multiple shortwaves across the Great Basin and Rocky Mt region into
the weekend. At this time, it is hard to determine how much snow
will be realized, though the likely areas will be along the
Continental Divide while the eastern plains remain dry. Look for
maximum temps in the 40s for the high valleys and 50s for the plains
on Thu, then Fri and Sat warm up with highs around 50F for the high
valleys, and mid 50s to upper 60s for the plains. Moore

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Sunday evening)
Issued at 334 PM MST Sat Feb 24 2018

VFR conditions at all taf sites tonight and Sunday. NW winds will
gradually diminish this evening and overnight, then increase again
midday Sun, with gusts 20-30 kts at all terminals after 17z-19z.

Over the mountains, snow will redevelop along the Continental Divide
overnight and continue through the morning on Sun, the gradually
diminish in the afternoon. Expect most peaks and higher passes to
see IFR to occasional LIFR cigs/vis, especially in the 06z-18z time
period.

&&

.PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Fire Weather Watch from Monday morning through Monday afternoon
for COZ225-229-230-233>237.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...PETERSEN
LONG TERM...MOORE
AVIATION...PETERSEN


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