Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Springfield, MO

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FXUS63 KSGF 242249

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Springfield MO
549 PM CDT Mon Apr 24 2017

...00z Aviation Forecast Update...

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Tuesday)
Issued at 215 PM CDT Mon Apr 24 2017

Upper level shortwave ridging is spreading east across the region
this afternoon. As a result warmer conditions have occurred this
afternoon as highs have warmed into the lower to middle 70s. Lows
tonight will drop into the 50s.

Surface low pressure is currently located across the Plains this
afternoon. As a result a slightly tighter pressure gradient and
gusty winds have developed across southeastern Kansas and far
western Missouri this afternoon.

The surface low will deepen tonight and will start to spread east
tonight into Tuesday. This will allow the stronger winds to
develop as gusty winds of 30 to 40mph will be possible across
much of the area Tuesday afternoon. Dry conditions will occur
through Tuesday afternoon.

Highs Tuesday will top out in the upper 70s to the lower 80s. The
gusty southerly winds will also help to increase low level
moisture ahead of the approaching system.

.LONG TERM...(Tuesday Night through Monday)
Issued at 215 PM CDT Mon Apr 24 2017

An upper level trough will swing to the east into the southern
Plains Tuesday evening then on to the north east across the
area Wednesday evening and night.

A cold front will push east into eastern Kansas by early Tuesday
evening. Instability will increase, as low level moisture
increases from the south and warm conditions occur. Storms should
be able to develop along the front near the I35 corridor and
spread east towards the region Tuesday evening into Tuesday night.

Initially discrete storms will be possible but a line or line
segments should develop as they spread east into the area. Strong
to severe storms will be possible with this activity across far
western Missouri to the west across southeastern Kansas. Damaging
straight line winds will be the main risk, but hail up to the size
of half dollars will also be possible with a few storms. The main
strong/severe risk Tuesday evening/night will be west of Highway
65 with the best potential west of I-49.

The upper level support with this system will lag to the west and
the storms should weaken as they push east Tuesday night and may
dissipate altogether east of Highway 65.

Now that the system is slowing some, the front will then spread
east across the area Wednesday morning into Wednesday
afternoon/evening. Showers and storms will develop Wednesday
morning, but should intensify east of Highway 65 as instability
increases, generating a strong to severe risk with large hail and
damaging winds the main risk.

Widespread rainfall amounts of one half to one and one half
inches are expected across the area Tuesday evening into Wednesday
evening. While wide spread flooding is not expected, localized
minor flooding will be possible due to saturated grounds from the
rains over the weekend.

Cooler and dry weather is expected Thursday through much of the
day Friday.

Friday night into the weekend an upper level low will track east
as a front moves north and stalls or slowly moves north across
northern Arkansas/southern Missouri. An increase in low level
moisture will allow rounds of rain to occur. Confidence continues
to increase that heavy rainfall will occur somewhere across the
region. There is still some wiggle north and south as to where that
axis of heavy rain will occur. There will be the potential for
additional flooding under where the axis of heavy rain setups .


.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Tuesday evening)
Issued at 546 PM CDT Mon Apr 24 2017

VFR will prevail for pilots flying in and out of the Missouri
Ozarks region. The only aviation concern with this TAF update will
be low level wind shear potential with a strong low level jet
right off the surface tonight into early tomorrow morning. The
other concern will be the gusty winds returning late tomorrow
morning through tomorrow afternoon. Southerly winds will gusts up
to 25 knots Tuesday afternoon. Otherwise fair skies with high
cirrus clouds from time to time and VFR.




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