Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Springfield, MO

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000
FXUS63 KSGF 230818
AFDSGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
318 AM CDT Sat Aug 23 2014

.SHORT TERM...(Today and Tonight)
Issued at 241 AM CDT SAT AUG 23 2014

Little change in the overall weather pattern is expected through the
weekend, as an upper level ridge remains centered over the lower
Mississippi Valley.  Temperatures today should be just a degree or
two warmer than yesterday, with 850 MB temps progged to warm by a
degree. Somewhat drier mid level air is expected to build in the
region today as well, which should result in a more pronounced drop
in dewpoints during the afternoon hours, especially along the higher
terrain of the Ozark Plateau.  Dewpoints along the spine of the
Plateau should drop into the low 60s, with somewhat higher readings
in the mid to upper 60s along the edges of the CWA, where terrain is
lower.  The end result will be another day of 100-107 degree heat
indices.  The Heat Advisory will continue unchanged.

.LONG TERM...(Sunday through Friday)
Issued at 241 AM CDT SAT AUG 23 2014

Similar conditions to today are expected for Sunday and Monday, with
highs again in the upper 90s and low 100s.

By Tuesday, the upper level ridge is expected to shift a bit east of
the region, with mid level troughing moving east across the Rockies
and into the northern High Plains.  Conditions Tuesday will remain hot
and humid, though the weakening of the upper ridge will allow for
scattered afternoon thunderstorms.

By Wednesday, things become a bit murky, with the GFS continuing to
insist on a significant frontal passage Wednesday/Wednesday night.
The latest ECMWF, on the other hand, is much slower with the front,
and brings the boundary very slowly across the Plains, not reaching
the Ozarks until next weekend.  The arrival of that front--whenever
that is--will bring our next significant rain chances, along with
cooler temperatures.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Saturday Night)

Pilots flying in and out of the southwest Missouri airports can
expect VFR conditions over the next 24 hours.

No low ceilings or obstructions to visibilities are forecast.

Surface winds will persist from the south with speeds between 5
and 12 mph.


&&

.CLIMATE...
Issued at 312 AM CDT SAT AUG 23 2014

The following is a list of record high temperatures and the last
year of occurrence through early next week:

August 23rd...

SGF...99/1991
JLN..102/1947
VIH...98/1962
UNO...99/2000

August 24th...

SGF...100/1938
JLN...102/1947
VIH....97/1978
UNO...100/1983

August 25th...

SGF...100/1983
JLN...101/2003
VIH...101/1973
UNO...100/1983


&&

.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...HEAT ADVISORY until 7 PM CDT Monday FOR MOZ055>058-066>071-
     077>083-088>098-101>106.

KS...HEAT ADVISORY until 7 PM CDT Monday FOR KSZ073-097-101.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Boxell
LONG TERM...Boxell
AVIATION...Cramer
CLIMATE...Boxell





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