Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Springfield, MO

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000
FXUS63 KSGF 212324
AFDSGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
624 PM CDT Tue Oct 21 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
Issued at 224 PM CDT TUE OCT 21 2014

Surface high pressure was located across the region today with an
upper level ridge shifting eastward over the Plains and into the
Mississippi Valley. Once the morning fog burned off, there has
been abundant sunshine and has aided in temperatures reaching the
low to mid 70s so far this afternoon.

The ridge will be progressive to the east with a shortwave
expected to affect the area on Wednesday night into Thursday
offering our next shot at some precipitation, before a more
amplified ridge builds in for the last part of the week and into
the weekend.

Outside of the precipitation chances on Thursday and then again
early next week, our main focus will be with how high the
temperatures can get as the ridge builds in late this week. It
will certainly be unseasonably warm with 850mb temperatures
reaching the mid to upper teens.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(This Evening through Wednesday)
Issued at 224 PM CDT TUE OCT 21 2014

Should not see the fog like we did last night, especially over
southwest Missouri and extreme southeast Kansas which wound up
getting dense fog, but would not be surprised to see some light
fog with visibilities down in the 3 to 5 mile range during the
overnight and early morning. Upper level ridge axis will move
overhead with surface ridge shifting east. We will see a return to
a southeast wind with temperatures returning to the mid 60s east
and mid 70s west during the afternoon.

.LONG TERM...(Wednesday Night through Tuesday)
Issued at 224 PM CDT TUE OCT 21 2014

Upper level ridge axis will exit to the east as quickly as it
moved in on Wednesday night, with shortwave energy moving into the
area late Wednesday night into Thursday. Instability may be enough
for some isolated thunder, but not expecting anything severe with
this quick moving system. Precipitation chances will begin
Wednesday night and continue into Thursday, but should exit to the
east by Thursday evening.

A more amplified upper level ridge will begin to build into the
area on Friday and continue into the weekend. 850/925 mb
temperatures will be quite warm for this time of year and our
upper air climatological study would support surface temperatures
this weekend in the upper 70s to low 80s. This will likely not
break any records, but are getting close to record highs for this
time of year.  (See climate section below for records).

Upper level trough and shortwave energy is expected to move across
the area Monday into Tuesday and will bring a chance of showers
and thunderstorms to the area. ECMWF is slightly slower with this
system than the GFS in clearing the QPF to the east.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Wednesday Evening)
Issued at 619 PM CDT TUE OCT 21 2014

VFR conditions are expected through Wednesday. The UPS fog
forecasting technique indicates that fog potential is low for
tonight. We may also see an increase in clouds over portions of
southern Missouri starting late tonight...which would also inhibit
fog development. Light winds this evening will become light out of
the southeast on Wednesday.

&&

.CLIMATE...
Issued at 224 PM CDT TUE OCT 21 2014

Record high temperatures late this week into the weekend.

          10/24      10/25      10/26
          Fri.       Sat.       Sun.

SGF      84/1891    85/1939    86/1891
JLN      88/2003    87/1944    87/1950
UNO      84/1985    83/1952    84/1950
VIH      81/2012    83/1902    84/1952

&&

.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...Lindenberg
SHORT TERM...Lindenberg
LONG TERM...Lindenberg
AVIATION...Schaumann
CLIMATE...Lindenberg





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