Severe Storm Outlook Narrative (AC)
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ACUS01 KWNS 181632
SPC AC 181630

Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1030 AM CST Mon Dec 18 2017

Valid 181630Z - 191200Z


While severe thunderstorms are not expected, isolated to widely
scattered thunderstorms may occur from parts of Texas to southern
Georgia through tonight.

A split large-scale pattern will exist over the CONUS and adjacent
Mexico and Canada, highlighted by a progressive belt of westerlies
over the northern tier of the CONUS/southern Canada and a
slow-moving upper low over the Southwest States and northern Mexico.
Severe thunderstorms are unlikely today owing to a combination of
limited buoyancy and regimes influenced by weak forcing for
ascent/vertical shear.

Multiple bands of convection, ongoing across parts of the central
Gulf Coast states near a stalled front, may produce sporadic
lightning today as they continue east-northeastward toward the
coastal Southeast.

Later today, the upstream trough currently over southern AZ and
northwest Mexico will slowly continue to progress eastward and
increasingly influence parts of TX tonight. Trough-preceding
warm/moist advection is likely to result in an increase of showers
and some thunderstorms, particularly late tonight across
central/southern into east TX.

..Guyer/Gleason.. 12/18/2017

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