Severe Storm Outlook Narrative (AC)
Issued by NWS

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091
ACUS01 KWNS 130534
SWODY1
SPC AC 130532

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1132 PM CST FRI FEB 12 2016

VALID 131200Z - 141200Z

...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING FROM
PARTS OF SOUTHEAST MONTANA INTO WESTERN SOUTH DAKOTA.

...SYNOPSIS...

A MORE PROGRESSIVE UPPER PATTERN WILL EMERGE TODAY AS THE EASTERN
TROUGH TRACKS EAST/NORTHEAST TOWARD THE WESTERN ATLANTIC. MORE
WIDESPREAD WEST/NORTHWESTERLY FLOW WILL THEN OVERSPREAD MUCH OF THE
CONUS FROM THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST...SOUTH AND EAST INTO THE SOUTHERN
PLAINS AND THE REMAINDER OF THE EASTERN U.S. EMBEDDED WITHIN THIS
NORTHWESTERLY FLOW...A VIGOROUS UPPER SHORTWAVE IMPULSE WILL MIGRATE
SOUTHEAST FROM THE NORTHERN ROCKIES TO THE CENTRAL PLAINS BY LATE
EVENING. A SURFACE TROUGH WILL DEVELOP ALONG THE NORTHERN HIGH
PLAINS AND A COLD FRONT WILL SHIFT EAST/SOUTHEAST ACROSS MT/WY INTO
THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL PLAINS THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING. A
FEW THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE FROM SOUTHEAST MT...NORTHEAST WY
INTO WESTERN SD AHEAD OF/ALONG THE COLD FRONT AS FORCING FOR ASCENT
INCREASES AND MIDLEVEL LAPSE RATES STEEPEN WITH THE APPROACH OF THE
AFOREMENTIONED SHORTWAVE. ELSEWHERE...DRY AND STABLE CONDITIONS WILL
PRECLUDE THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT.

..LEITMAN/ROGERS.. 02/13/2016

$$



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