Severe Storm Outlook Narrative (AC)
Issued by NWS

Home | Current Version | Previous Version | Text Only | Print | Product List | Glossary On
Versions: 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14
000
ACUS02 KWNS 280529
SWODY2
SPC AC 280528

Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1228 AM CDT Tue Mar 28 2017

Valid 291200Z - 301200Z

...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON AND NIGHT OVER MUCH OF AR...NORTHWEST LA...AND NORTHEAST
TX....

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM EAST TX INTO
KS AND MO...

...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER PARTS OF
THE SOUTHERN PLAINS...AND LOWER/MID MS VALLEY...

...SUMMARY...
Severe thunderstorms are expected on Wednesday from parts of east
Texas and eastern Oklahoma into the lower and middle Mississippi
Valley.

The strong shortwave trough currently digging into the southwest
states will move across the southern Plains on Tuesday and affect
the lower MS Valley on Wednesday.  Widespread thunderstorms are
expected across TX Tuesday night, but model solutions indicate that
this activity will diminish Wednesday morning over east TX and
southeast OK.  This will allow the air mass in this region to
recover, with a corridor of moderate instability developing ahead of
the surface dryline/cold front.  Thunderstorms will re-develop along
the boundary during the afternoon and track northeastward across
parts of LA/AR during the evening/night.  The NAM/GFS solutions are
consistent in developing a potent low-level jet that moves from
southeast TX into southern AR after dark.  The resulting forecast
soundings would support a risk of supercells and bowing structures
producing tornadoes (possibly strong), as well as large hail and
damaging winds.  Portions of the region may need upgraded to MDT
risk in later updates if model solutions continue to support this
scenario.

..Hart.. 03/28/2017

$$



USA.gov is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.