Severe Storm Outlook Narrative (AC)
Issued by NWS

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000
ACUS02 KWNS 211715
SWODY2
SPC AC 211714

DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1214 PM CDT TUE OCT 21 2014

VALID 221200Z - 231200Z

...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE FORECAST ACROSS THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI
VALLEY...MIDDLE MISSOURI RIVER VALLEY...CENTRAL PLAINS AND SOUTHWARD
INTO THE SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS AND RIO GRANDE VALLEY WEDNESDAY. A FEW
STORMS WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE OVER SOUTHERN FLORIDA...THE MIDDLE
ATLANTIC COAST INTO COASTAL NEW ENGLAND AND A SMALL PART OF THE
PACIFIC NORTHWEST.

...SYNOPSIS...

ERN U.S. UPPER TROUGH WILL EVOLVE INTO A CLOSED LOW AND STALL OFF
THE MID ATLANTIC COAST. MEANWHILE...UPPER TROUGH CURRENTLY MOVING
THROUGH THE NRN AND CNTRL ROCKIES WILL PHASE WITH A WEAK SRN STREAM
TROUGH AND CONTINUE THROUGH THE PLAINS WEDNESDAY...REACHING THE MS
VALLEY AREA LATER WEDNESDAY NIGHT.

THE NRN STREAM TROUGH WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY A COLD FRONT THAT WILL
ADVANCE THROUGH THE NRN AND CNTRL PLAINS...REACHING THE UPPER MS
VALLEY REGION WEDNESDAY NIGHT. AN OCCLUDED SFC LOW EXPECTED TO BE
JUST OFF THE MID-ATLANTIC SEABOARD WEDNESDAY MORNING WILL DEVELOP
NWD DURING THE DAY.

...PLAINS THROUGH UPPER MS VALLEY...

OWING TO OFFSHORE NEAR SFC WINDS OVER THE GULF...INSTABILITY WILL
REMAIN LIMITED OVER THE PLAINS AND MS VALLEY. NEVERTHELESS...AT
LEAST WEAK MUCAPE /200-400 J/KG/ WILL EXIST AHEAD OF THE UPPER
TROUGH WITHIN PLUME OF 6.5-7 C/KM MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND MODEST
MOISTURE BEING DRAWN NEWD ABOVE THE SFC LAYER. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL LIKELY DEVELOP OVER THE PLAINS AS ZONE
OF DEEPER ASCENT SHIFTS EAST...REACHING THE UPPER MS VALLEY
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

...ELSEWHERE...

A FEW SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE IN
VICINITY OF A WEAK FRONT OVER SRN FL...IN ASSOCIATION WITH CLOSED
UPPER LOW ALONG THE MID-ATLANTIC AND SRN NEW ENGLAND COASTS AS WELL
AS OVER COASTAL WASHINGTON STATE.

..DIAL.. 10/21/2014




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