Severe Storm Outlook Narrative (AC)
Issued by NWS

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000
ACUS02 KWNS 261730
SWODY2
SPC AC 261716

DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
ISSUED BY 15TH OWS SCOTT AIR FORCE BASE IL
1216 PM CDT THU MAR 26 2015

VALID 271200Z - 281200Z

...THERE IS A MRGL RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM CENTRAL FLORIDA TO THE
SOUTH...

...SUMMARY...
ISOLATED STRONG THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND
SOUTHERN FLORIDA PENINSULA FRIDAY.

...FL...

STRONG HEIGHT FALLS WILL OVERSPREAD THE SERN U.S. FRIDAY AS
MID-LEVEL FLOW STRENGTHENS ALONG THE CAROLINA COAST AND INCREASES TO
NEAR 100KT.  THIS LARGE-SCALE EVOLUTION SHOULD FORCE COLD FRONT INTO
THE CNTRL PENINSULA BY 18Z WITH SUBSEQUENT MOVEMENT EXPECTED INTO
THE KEYS BY 28/06Z.  WHILE DEEP-LAYER FLOW WILL VEER AND STRENGTHEN
ACROSS THE PENINSULA AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT...IT APPEARS
PRE-FRONTAL AIR MASS WILL REMAIN SUFFICIENTLY MOIST FOR CONVECTIVE
DEVELOPMENT ALONG ADVANCING COLD FRONT.  NAM FORECAST SOUNDINGS
SUGGEST MODEST BOUNDARY LAYER HEATING SHOULD CONTRIBUTE TO LOW LEVEL
LAPSE RATES SUPPORTING SBCAPE ON THE ORDER OF 1000-1500 J/KG.
ROBUST UPDRAFTS COULD EVOLVE ACROSS THE CNTRL/SRN PENINSULA GIVEN
EXPECTED DEEP-LAYER SHEAR.  PRIMARY THREAT WILL BE MARGINALLY SEVERE
WIND GUSTS WITH NEAR-FRONTAL CONVECTION.

...PACIFIC NW...

STRONG SHORT-WAVE TROUGH WILL SPREAD ACROSS WA/ORE DURING THE LATTER
HALF OF THE DAY2 PERIOD.  LARGE-SCALE ASCENT SHOULD INCREASE AHEAD
OF THIS FEATURE ACROSS THE INTERIOR-NW WHERE DAYTIME HEATING SHOULD
CONTRIBUTE TO WEAK BUOYANCY.  ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS MAY DEVELOP
WITHIN FAVORABLE SWLY FLOW REGIME IMMEDIATELY AHEAD OF SHORT WAVE.

..15_OWS.. 03/26/2015



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