Severe Storm Outlook Narrative (AC)
Issued by NWS

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ACUS02 KWNS 310535
SWODY2
SPC AC 310534

DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1234 AM CDT THU JUL 31 2014

VALID 011200Z - 021200Z

...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
THUNDERSTORMS WITH PERHAPS A MARGINAL HAIL THREAT WILL OCCUR ACROSS
THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY...AND FROM GEORGIA INTO THE CAROLINAS
DURING THE DAY.

...SYNOPSIS...
A STATIONARY UPPER TROUGH WILL REMAIN OVER THE ERN CONUS PROVIDING
COOL AIR ALOFT AND MAXIMIZING INSTABILITY DESPITE RELATIVELY LOW
DEWPOINTS. THE CYCLONIC FLOW ALOFT AND HEATING WILL LEAD TO A WEAK
SURFACE TROUGH FROM MN INTO LOWER MI BY AFTERNOON WHERE SCATTERED
STORMS WILL BE FOCUSED. ANOTHER SURFACE TROUGH WILL EXIST FROM GA
INTO THE CAROLINAS WITH FLOW OFF THE ATLANTIC MAINTAINING HIGHER
DEWPOINTS.

ELSEWHERE...MONSOONAL STORMS WILL PERSIST ACROSS MUCH OF THE W
BENEATH THE UPPER RIDGE...WITH ISOLATED STORMS OVER OREGON UNDER THE
INFLUENCE OF WEAK UPPER TROUGHING.

...UPPER MS VALLEY INTO THE UPPER GREAT LAKES...
STRONG HEATING BENEATH COOL PROFILES ALOFT WILL RESULT IN STEEP
LAPSE RATES AND AN UNCAPPED ATMOSPHERE SUPPORTING SMALL BUT VIGOROUS
AFTERNOON UPDRAFTS. DEWPOINTS WILL REMAIN IN THE 50S F WHICH SHOULD
FAVOR MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL PRODUCTION DESPITE WEAK WIND PROFILES
AND DISORGANIZED STORM MODE. ANY HAIL THREAT WILL WANE WITH LOSS OF
HEATING.

...GA INTO THE CAROLINAS...
LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE WILL BACK WWD OFF THE ATLANTIC WITH UPPER 60S F
DEWPOINTS COMMON. HEATING WILL LEAD TO AROUND 1500 J/KG MLCAPE BY
EARLY AFTERNOON. WEAK LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE AND UPSLOPE SHOULD HELP
TO PRODUCE A FEW CLUSTERS OF THUNDERSTORMS. HAIL MAY APPROACH 1.00
INCH DIAMETER...WITH LOCALLY GUSTY WINDS. VEERING WIND PROFILES WITH
HEIGHT WOULD ORDINARILY SUPPORT SOME ROTATING CELLS...BUT SHEAR
MAGNITUDES WILL BE WEAK.

..JEWELL.. 07/31/2014




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