Severe Storm Outlook Narrative (AC)
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000
ACUS02 KWNS 230454
SWODY2
SPC AC 230453

Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1153 PM CDT Thu Jun 22 2017

Valid 241200Z - 251200Z

...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS MUCH OF
CENTRAL NEW MEXICO...

...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS GEORGIA
INTO THE CAROLINAS...

...SUMMARY...
Isolated strong storms with gusty winds are possible over portions
of the Southeast on Saturday, with isolated hail or wind over parts
of New Mexico.

...Synopsis...
A broad area of cyclonic flow aloft will stretch from the upper
Mississippi Valley into the Northeast, with an upper ridge across
the Pacific coast and upper high over Arizona. At the surface, high
pressure will spread southeastward across the Plains and into the
lower Mississippi Valley, with a weak surface trough along the east
coast. The more substantial moisture and instability will exist
mainly along the Gulf Coast and toward the Mid Atlantic, with
sufficient instability in areas for thunderstorms.

...NM...
Southeasterly surface winds will allow low amounts of moisture to
spread westward out of west TX, with strong heating during the day.
This will create an unstable air mass, with steep lapse rates
supportive of strong updrafts. Modest northwest flow aloft atop
weakly veering low level winds with height may prove sufficient to
sustain at least isolated single-cell storms capable of hail.

...Central GA into the Carolinas...
Modest southwesterly flow aloft will exist across the area on the
southern periphery of the upper trough. Meanwhile, a weak surface
trough will exist from the Mid Atlantic region southwestward toward
the central Gulf Coast. Strong heating will occur during the day,
with a moist air mass in place. Although instability will be
marginal, scattered storms are likely by afternoon along this weak
boundary.

..Jewell.. 06/23/2017

$$


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