Severe Storm Outlook Narrative (AC)
Issued by NWS

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ACUS02 KWNS 171722
SWODY2
SPC AC 171721

DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1121 AM CST WED DEC 17 2014

VALID 181200Z - 191200Z

...THERE IS A MRGL RISK OF SVR TSTMS OVER PARTS OF THE EDWARDS
PLATEAU AND BRUSH COUNTRY OF TX...

...SUMMARY...
A FEW MARGINALLY SEVERE STORMS MAY DEVELOP OVER PARTS OF THE EDWARDS
PLATEAU AND BRUSH COUNTRY OF TEXAS ON THURSDAY NIGHT.

...SYNOPSIS...
A SERIES OF PROGRESSIVE SHORTWAVE TROUGHS WILL PERSIST OVER THE
CONUS ON THU. A LEAD IMPULSE WILL RACE EWD FROM THE OZARK PLATEAU TO
THE MID-ATLANTIC...WHILE AN UPSTREAM TROUGH SHIFTS FROM SRN/BAJA CA
TOWARDS THE RIO GRANDE VALLEY IN TX. IN THE WAKE OF THE LEAD
SHORTWAVE IMPULSE MOVING E FROM THE OZARK PLATEAU...SURFACE DEW
POINTS AOA 60 DEG F WILL BE CONFINED TO THE GULF COASTAL PLAIN S OF
A QUASI-STATIONARY FRONT. THIS FRONT SHOULD OSCILLATE NWWD INTO
PARTS OF THE BRUSH COUNTRY EARLY FRI IN ADVANCE OF THE LATTER
IMPULSE.

...TX...
ALTHOUGH LOW-LEVEL MASS RESPONSE SHOULD BE MODERATE AT MOST WITH THE
THU NIGHT SHORTWAVE TROUGH...ISENTROPIC LIFT N OF THE FRONT IN
CONJUNCTION WITH MID-LEVEL DCVA WILL FOSTER AN EXPANDING CONVECTIVE
PLUME ACROSS PARTS OF CNTRL/SRN/ERN TX. THE GREATEST POTENTIAL
BUOYANCY SHOULD LIE ON THE WRN PERIPHERY OF THIS BROAD AREA OF
SHOWERS AND EMBEDDED TSTMS NEAR THE RIO GRANDE VALLEY ADJACENT TO
THE EDWARDS PLATEAU AND BRUSH COUNTRY. HERE...MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES
WILL INITIALLY BE RATHER STEEP WITH AN EML EMANATING FROM THE
MEXICAN PLATEAU. ALTHOUGH CONVECTION SHOULD LARGELY BE ROOTED FROM
ELEVATED PARCELS...ROBUST CLOUD-BEARING SHEAR MAY SUPPORT A FEW
ROTATING UPDRAFTS CAPABLE OF SEVERE HAIL. PREDOMINANT CLUSTER MODE
AND WEAK BUOYANCY SHOULD LIMIT THE OVERALL RISK.

..GRAMS.. 12/17/2014




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