Severe Storm Outlook Narrative (AC)
Issued by NWS

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533
ACUS02 KWNS 220526
SWODY2
SPC AC 220525

DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1225 AM CDT FRI MAY 22 2015

VALID 231200Z - 241200Z

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM SWRN TX TO  NERN CO...

...THERE IS A MRGL RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM SW TX TO THE NEBRASKA
PANHANDLE...

...SUMMARY...
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SEVERE STORMS WITH TORNADOES...LARGE
HAIL...AND DAMAGING WINDS ARE POSSIBLE FROM THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS
INTO SOUTHWEST TEXAS SATURDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING.

...CENTRAL/SOUTHERN PLAINS...

WEAK 12HR HEIGHT FALLS WILL SPREAD INTO THE CENTRAL/SOUTHERN PLAINS
SATURDAY AHEAD OF LONG-WAVE TROUGH THAT SHOULD PROGRESS INTO THE
ROCKIES BY THE END OF THE PERIOD.  LARGE-SCALE FORCING IS EXPECTED
TO BEGIN TO AFFECT THE LEE TROUGH/DRY LINE EARLY AND CONVECTION MAY
BE ONGOING AT SUNRISE AS STRONGER FLOW ALOFT BEGINS TO EJECT INTO
THE HIGH PLAINS.  SIGNIFICANT CLOUD COVER AND PRECIPITATION SHOULD
LIMIT BUOYANCY ACROSS THE PLAINS DURING THE DAY2 PERIOD AND LATEST
SHORT-RANGE MODELS SUGGEST LAPSE RATES WILL REMAIN RATHER MEAGER
ACROSS MUCH OF THE WARM SECTOR.  THE MOST LIKELY CORRIDOR FOR STEEP
LAPSE RATES WILL BE ACROSS POST-DRY LINE NM/CO EXTENDING JUST
DOWNSTREAM INTO ADJACENT PORTIONS OF PRE-DRY LINE WEST TX INTO
EXTREME WRN KS.  EARLY-DAY CONVECTION SHOULD PROPAGATE EWD AS LLJ
SHIFTS DOWNSTREAM...BUT WITHIN AN ENVIRONMENT THAT SHOULD ONLY BE
MODESTLY UNSTABLE...BUT FAIRLY MOIST WITH PW VALUES EXCEEDING 1.75
INCHES TO NEAR THE KS BORDER.  FORECAST SOUNDINGS EXHIBIT
SUBSTANTIAL SPEED SHEAR AND FAVORABLE VEERING WITH HEIGHT FOR
SUPERCELL STRUCTURES...HOWEVER CONSIDERABLE AMOUNT OF CONVECTION AND
POSSIBLE MCS COMPLEXES COULD COMPLICATE SEVERE THREAT ACROSS MUCH OF
THIS REGION.  THE GREATEST RISK FOR DISCRETE SUPERCELLS WILL BE
ACROSS THE HIGH PLAINS IN THE AFOREMENTIONED REGION OF STEEP LAPSE
RATES FROM WEST TX INTO NERN CO.  ISOLATED TORNADOES...LARGE
HAIL...AND DAMAGING WINDS ARE POSSIBLE WITH ANY SUPERCELLS SATURDAY
AS FORECAST SHEAR APPEARS MORE THAN ADEQUATE FOR SUSTAINING
ORGANIZED UPDRAFTS...EVEN IN REGIONS WHERE BUOYANCY MAY BE LESS THAN
IDEAL.  SEVERE THREAT WILL LINGER WELL INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS AS
UPPER TROUGH/FORCING SHIFT EAST.

..DARROW.. 05/22/2015




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