Severe Storm Outlook Narrative (AC)
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000
ACUS11 KWNS 232048
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 232048
NEZ000-KSZ000-SDZ000-OKZ000-232215-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1758
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0348 PM CDT TUE SEP 23 2014

AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS OF WRN AND CNTRL NEB INTO WRN KS

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY

VALID 232048Z - 232215Z

PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...20 PERCENT

SUMMARY...ISOLATED SEVERE STORMS CAPABLE OF MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL
AND/OR LOCALLY DAMAGING WIND GUSTS WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE
DISCUSSION AREA LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO EVENING. A WATCH IS NOT
CURRENTLY ANTICIPATED.

DISCUSSION...WITHIN A BROADER LEE TROUGH PRESENT OVER THE HIGH
PLAINS...20Z MESOANALYSIS REVEALED A NUMBER OF WEAK WIND SHIFTS
ORIENTED IN A GENERAL W-E FASHION. THESE FEATURES ALONG WITH THE
PRIMARY N-S ORIENTED TROUGH WERE SERVING AS THE FOCUS FOR DEEPENING
CUMULUS DEVELOPMENT PER RECENT VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY.
CONVERGENCE ALONG THESE SURFACE BOUNDARIES WILL BE BOLSTERED BY DCVA
ATTENDANT TO A COMPACT VORTICITY MAXIMUM SITUATED ALONG THE SD-NEB
STATE LINE...AS WELL AS A WEAKER PERTURBATION TRANSLATING SEWD INTO
ERN CO TO FOSTER WIDELY SCATTERED TSTMS ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH
THE REMAINDER OF THE AFTERNOON INTO EVENING.

THE MOST INTENSE TSTMS ARE LIKELY TO BE CONCENTRATED INVOF THE
PRIMARY LEE TROUGH WHERE TEMPERATURES IN THE 80S AND DEWPOINTS IN
THE 50S ARE CONTRIBUTING TO MLCAPE OF 1000-1500 J/KG. MOREOVER...A
BELT OF 30-35 KT MID-LEVEL FLOW OVERLIES MUCH OF THIS INSTABILITY
AXIS...RESULTING IN A VERTICALLY VEERING WIND PROFILE AND SUFFICIENT
VERTICAL SHEAR FOR SOME STORM ROTATION. AS SUCH...A RISK FOR
MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL AND/OR LOCALLY STRONG WIND GUSTS WILL EXIST
WITH THE MOST INTENSE STORMS THROUGH EARLY EVENING. GIVEN THE
ANTICIPATED ISOLATED NATURE OF THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT...A WATCH
IS NOT CURRENTLY ANTICIPATED.

..MEAD.. 09/23/2014

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...ICT...GID...LBF...DDC...UNR...GLD...AMA...

LAT...LON   37160144 38070147 39250153 40920149 42440144 42970114
            43010018 42689923 41999902 40269884 39099901 37909915
            37289967 37069991 36990062 37160144




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