Severe Storm Outlook Narrative (AC)
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ACUS11 KWNS 240232
SPC MCD 240232

Mesoscale Discussion 0552
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0932 PM CDT Sun Apr 23 2017

Areas affected...Southeast GA...Central/Eastern SC

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely

Valid 240232Z - 240500Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent

SUMMARY...Thunderstorms are expected to persist into late tonight,
especially across portions of South Carolina. The strongest cells
will be capable of locally damaging wind and perhaps a tornado or
two. Watch issuance is considered unlikely at this time.

DISCUSSION...Thunderstorms have recently increased in coverage and
intensity across portions of eastern GA into west-central SC. This
increase occurred in conjunction with a collision of the
westward-moving sea breeze and an eastward-moving outflow boundary
emanating from earlier convection over GA. The resulting composite
boundary extends southward from a weak surface low over eastern GA,
with another nearly-stationary boundary extending eastward from the
low across central SC.

A few cells have exhibited weak rotation across portions of
west-central SC in Aiken and Barnwell counties, though these are
likely slightly elevated and up to now have not appeared to pose an
appreciable severe risk. Cells further south have shown less
organization, but as they advance eastward into a somewhat more
unstable airmass across the coastal plain of SC, some increase in
intensity is possible with a risk of locally damaging wind in the
short term.

Later this evening, a modest increase in the low-level jet is
anticipated in response to a well-defined upper low that will move
slowly east-southeastward into GA. As this occurs, cells that are
able to interact with the frontal boundary (which may move slowly
northward as a warm front with time) may pose a threat of a brief
tornado or two, though widespread convection and relatively weak
deep-layer shear will likely keep the severe threat relatively
limited. While a low-end severe threat will exist for much of the
night, the magnitude of the threat at any particular location and
time is currently expected to remain too limited for watch issuance.

..Dean/Guyer.. 04/24/2017

...Please see for graphic product...


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