Severe Storm Outlook Narrative (AC)
Issued by NWS

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000
ACUS11 KWNS 232037
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 232036
GAZ000-FLZ000-232300-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1944
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0236 PM CST SUN NOV 23 2014

AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS OF ERN GA AND FAR NERN FL

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE

VALID 232036Z - 232300Z

PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...40 PERCENT

SUMMARY...AREAS EAST OF TORNADO WATCH 558 ARE BEING MONITORED FOR
THE POSSIBLE ISSUANCE OF A NEW TORNADO WATCH DURING THE NEXT COUPLE
OF HOURS.

DISCUSSION...A SQUALL LINE WITH EMBEDDED MESOCYCLONES IS CROSSING
THE AL/GA BORDER EXTENDING INTO THE FL PANHANDLE...AND WILL SPREAD
E/NE OF UPSTREAM TORNADO WATCH 558 DURING THE NEXT FEW HOURS.
MARGINAL BUOYANCY...LARGELY SUPPORTED BY LOWER 70S SFC
DEWPOINTS...PRECEDES THIS CONVECTION TO THE S OF A WAVY WARM FRONT
ORIENTED W/E ACROSS SRN GA. SFC PRESSURE FALLS OF 3.5-4.5 MB PER 2
HRS FROM THE TN VALLEY TO THE SRN APPALACHIANS WILL CORRESPOND TO
ISALLOBARIC FLOW DRIVING THE WARM FRONT AND MARGINAL BUOYANCY NWD
INTO EARLY EVENING. MODEST WARM ADVECTION WELL IN ADVANCE OF THE
SQUALL LINE MAY ALSO FOSTER THE DEVELOPMENT OF DEEPER CONVECTION
OVER S-CNTRL/SERN GA. STRONG SSWLY/SWLY TROPOSPHERIC FLOW ASSOCIATED
WITH 50-55 KT OF EFFECTIVE BULK SHEAR AND 30-35 KT OF 0-1-KM SHEAR
WILL SUPPORT A RISK FOR DMGG WIND GUSTS...AND PERHAPS ONE OR TWO
TORNADOES WITH QLCS-EMBEDDED MESOVORTICES/PRECEDING TRANSIENT
SUPERCELLS. HOWEVER...GIVEN THE TENDENCY FOR STRONGER DEEP ASCENT TO
ONLY GLANCE THE REGION...POOR LAPSE RATES...AND EVENTUAL NOCTURNAL
COOLING...CONFIDENCE IN THE OVERALL SVR RISK IS LIMITED TO SOME
EXTENT.

..COHEN/THOMPSON.. 11/23/2014

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...CHS...CAE...JAX...FFC...

LAT...LON   30418291 31568295 32638307 33058267 32998178 31888114
            31238131 30498159 30418291



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