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000
FXUS61 KBUF 201426
AFDBUF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
1026 AM EDT SUN APR 20 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
AN AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING FAIR AND SEASONABLY WARM WEATHER
TO THE REGION TODAY AND MONDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL PASS ACROSS THE
EASTERN GREAT LAKES REGION TUESDAY AND BRING SHOWERS ALONG WITH
COOLER TEMPERATURES.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
A BROAD AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE OVER NEW ENGLAND AND EXPANDING ACROSS
THE GREAT LAKES AND OHIO VALLEY REGION WILL CONTINUE TO BRING
PLEASANT CONDITIONS TO THE REGION TODAY. EXPECT NEARLY FULL SUNSHINE
WITH JUST A FEW PASSING THIN/WISPY CIRRUS. TEMPERATURES ALOFT AT
850 HPA WARM TO AROUND +4 TO +8C EAST TO WEST AND THIS WILL BRING
WIDESPREAD 60S TO THE REGION. WARMEST AREAS WILL LIKELY BE ACROSS
WESTERN NEW YORK WHERE A FEW OF THE WARMEST AREAS IN THE MID GENESEE
VALLEY MAY PUSH 70.

THE FAR EASTERN EXTENT OF A WARM FRONT AHEAD OF A MIDWEST STORM
SYSTEM WILL LIFT ACROSS THE REGION LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND
TONIGHT. THIS BOUNDARY WILL BRING SOME MID AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDINESS
ACROSS THE REGION. THICKEST CLOUDS WILL BE FOUND NORTHWARD. WE
WILL REMAIN DRY WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE LOW TO MID 40S. A FEW
UPPER 30S WILL BE FOUND NEAR THE STATE LINE UNDER MAINLY CLEAR
SKIES.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
DRY WEATHER WILL BE MAINTAINED MONDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS IN
CONTROL...ALTHOUGH IT WILL BE SHIFTING EAST THROUGH THE DAY. MORE
SUNSHINE SHOULD BE SEEN DURING THE FIRST HALF THE DAY WITH
INCREASING CLOUDS FILTERING SUNSHINE DURING THE AFTERNOON. WARM AIR
ADVECTION REGIME IN A WELL MIXED SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW WILL LIKELY PUSH
TEMPERATURES INTO THE LOWER TO MID 70S...BUT PROBABLY HOLDING IN THE
60S EAST OF LAKE ONTARIO AND EVEN COOLER ALONG THE IMMEDIATE LAKE
SHORE AREAS.

BY MONDAY NIGHT...A MID-LEVEL TROUGH WILL BE MOVING THROUGH THE
GREAT LAKES AND OHIO VALLEY. A SURFACE LOW WILL DEVELOP THE GREAT
LAKES...MOVING EAST-NORTHEAST ACROSS LAKE HURON AND INTO SOUTHERN
QUEBEC BY TUESDAY MORNING. THIS LOW WILL PUSH A COLD FRONT THROUGH
THE REGION. FORCING FOR PRECIPITATION WILL LARGELY BE FOCUSED ALONG
THE COLD FRONT BETWEEN 06Z AND 18Z TUESDAY AS DEEP LAYER MOISTURE
ARRIVES AND SOME ENTRANCE REGION JET DYNAMIC GET INVOLVED. FRONTAL
MOVEMENT LOOKS PROGRESSIVE ENOUGH THE LIMIT RAINFALL AMOUNTS TO A
HALF INCH OR LESS. INSTABILITY LOOKS WEAK AT THIS POINT WITH ANY
THUNDER THREAT VERY LOW.

PRECIPITATION CHANCES END BEHIND THE FRONT...BUT THIS MAY BE
TEMPORARY AS A SECONDARY TROUGH DROPS DOWN ACROSS THE REGION.
SHALLOW MOISTURE PROFILES WITHIN THE COLD AIR ADVECTION REGIME MAY
BE ENOUGH TO ALLOW FOR AN UPTICK IN PRECIPITATION CHANCES...
ESPECIALLY OVER FAVORED TERRAIN AREAS TUESDAY NIGHT. CRITICAL
TEMPERATURE PROFILES WOULD SUGGEST A LOW PROBABILITY OF A MIX WITH
SNOW OVER THE HIGHEST LOCATIONS TOWARD WEDNESDAY MORNING.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
A PROGRESSIVE...SOMEWHAT AMPLIFIED PATTERN WILL TRANSLATE INTO
CHANGEABLE WEATHER DURING THIS PERIOD. WHILE IT WILL BE SEASONABLY
COOL ON WEDNESDAY...RIDGING OVER THE NATIONS MID SECTION WILL PUSH
EAST AND BOOST OUR MERCURY BACK ABOVE NORMAL INTO NEXT WEEKEND. SOME
DETAILS...

HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE UPPER GREAT LAKES WILL DRIFT EAST DURING THE
DAY WEDNESDAY...WITH SUBSEQUENT MID LEVEL DRYING AND SUBSIDENCE
LEADING TO CLEARING SKIES. IT WILL BE BREEZY AND QUITE COOL THOUGH
AS H85 TEMPS OF -5C WILL HOLD OUR AFTERNOON MAX TEMPS IN THE 40S AND
LOWER 50S F. NORMAL HIGH TEMPERATURES FOR THIS POINT IN THE SEASON
ARE GENERALLY IN THE UPPER 50S.

THE SFC HIGH WILL EASE ACROSS THE LOWER GREAT LAKES WEDNESDAY NIGHT
AND THURSDAY. THIS WILL SUPPORT EXCELLENT CONDITIONS FOR STAR GAZING
WEDNESDAY NIGHT...WITH AMPLE SUNSHINE AND MODERATING H85 TEMPS
LEADING TO PLEASANT WARMING FOR THURSDAY. AFTERNOON READINGS WILL
CLIMB BACK TO NEAR NORMAL LEVELS AT THIS TIME.

AS THE SFC HIGH MOVES EAST OF OUR REGION THURSDAY NIGHT...THE DOOR
WILL BE OPEN FOR A PACIFIC BASED COOL FRONT TO CROSS THE LOWER
LAKES. SOME SHOWERS WILL BECOME POSSIBLE OVER THE FAR WESTERN
COUNTIES LATE THURSDAY NIGHT...WITH A MORE WIDESPREAD OPPORTUNITY
FOR SHOWERS ON FRIDAY AS THE FRONT AND ITS SUPPORTING MID LEVEL
SHORTWAVE PASS THROUGH THE REGION.

THE PASSAGE OF ANOTHER COLD FRONT WILL PUSH ACROSS THE LOWER GREAT
LAKES ON SATURDAY...PROLONGING THE POTENTIAL FOR SCATTERED SHOWER
ACTIVITY.

&&

.AVIATION /15Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
VFR FLIGHT CONDITIONS AT 12Z ARE EXPECTED TO PERSIST THROUGH THE TAF
PERIOD WITH A GENERAL LIGHT WIND.

OUTLOOK...
MONDAY...VFR.
TUESDAY...MAINLY VFR WITH PERIODS OF MVFR IN SHRA ACTIVITY.
WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY...VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE OVER NEW ENGLAND NEW ENGLAND TODAY THROUGH
MONDAY WILL BRING MINIMAL WAVES ON THE LAKES AND JUST A GENTLE
BREEZE ACROSS BODIES OF WATER.

&&

.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...THOMAS
NEAR TERM...HITCHCOCK/THOMAS
SHORT TERM...TMA
LONG TERM...RSH
AVIATION...THOMAS
MARINE...THOMAS