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000
FXUS61 KBUF 111819
AFDBUF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
219 PM EDT TUE MAR 11 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
FAIR AND DRY WEATHER WILL CONTINUE TODAY...ALONG WITH ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPERATURES. TONIGHT...A DEVELOPING WINTER STORM SYSTEM WILL SHIFT
FROM THE CENTRAL PLAINS TO THE OHIO VALLEY. PRECIPITATION WILL START
AS LIGHT RAIN THEN CHANGE TO A WINTERY MIX BEFORE CHANGING TO ALL
SNOW EXCEPT ACROSS THE SOUTHERN TIER WHERE LIGHT RAIN WILL HANG ON
LONGER. WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT THE STORM WILL PASS JUST SOUTH
OF NEW YORK STATE WITH MODERATE TO HEAVY SNOW AND BLOWING SNOW
CREATING HAZARDOUS TRAVEL CONDITIONS. THE STORM SYSTEM DEPARTS ON
THURSDAY WITH SNOW ENDING AND A SHARP DIP IN TEMPERATURES.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
DRY AND FAIR WEATHER WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE DAY
WITH OUR AREA COMING UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF A COL BETWEEN TWO HIGH
PRESSURE SYSTEMS OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS AND WESTERN ATLANTIC...AND
DEPARTING LOW PRESSURE OVER QUEBEC AND A DEVELOPING WINTER STORM
OVER THE PLAINS STATES. GENERALLY PARTLY TO MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES WILL
GRADUALLY GIVE WAY TO INCREASING MID AND HIGH CLOUDS AS THE
AFOREMENTIONED WINTER STORM ORGANIZES WELL TO OUR SOUTHWEST...
THOUGH ANY OF ITS PRECIP SHOULD ALSO REMAIN TO OUR SOUTH AND WEST.
WITH THE BENEFIT OF THE PLENTIFUL SUNSHINE WE WILL HAVE FOR A WHILE
LONGER AND 925 MB TEMPS RUNNING IN THE ZERO TO +5C RANGE...MOST
AREAS WILL SEE WELL ABOVE NORMAL HIGHS IN THE UPPER 40S TO MID 50S
50S...WITH THE WARMEST READINGS ACROSS INTERIOR SECTIONS OF THE
SOUTHERN TIER...GENESEE VALLEY...AND FINGER LAKES. THE EXCEPTION TO
THIS WILL BE ALONG THE LAKESHORES AND ACROSS THE NORTH
COUNTRY...WHERE COOLER READINGS IN THE LOWER 40S WILL PREVAIL.

THE LATEST DETAILS ON THE WINTER STORM EXPECTED LATER TONIGHT AND
ESPECIALLY WEDNESDAY WILL BE FORTHCOMING A LITTLE LATER ON THIS
AFTERNOON.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
...SIGNIFICANT WINTER STORM ON THE WAY FOR WEDNESDAY...

TO SUMMARIZE...00Z MODEL GUIDANCE HAS CONTINUED A TREND TOWARDS A
SLIGHTLY FARTHER NORTH...DEEPER...AND SLOWER SOLUTION WITH THE
MIDWEEK SYSTEM. THE NET RESULT OF THESE CHANGES WILL BE MORE WINTRY
MIX ALONG THE PA STATE LINE WHICH WILL HOLD DOWN SNOW ACCUMULATIONS
THERE...AND EVEN HIGHER SNOW ACCUMULATIONS FARTHER NORTH FROM THE
NIAGARA FRONTIER ACROSS THE GREATER ROCHESTER AREA TO THE EASTERN
LAKE ONTARIO REGION. STORM TOTALS HAVE BEEN INCREASED INTO THE 12-16
INCH RANGE WITH A FEW SPOTS POSSIBLY REACHING 18 INCHES. THE DEEPER
SOLUTION ALSO LEADS TO A FURTHER INCREASE IN FORECAST WIND
SPEEDS...WITH SIGNIFICANT BLOWING AND DRIFTING SNOW DEVELOPING
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

00Z GFS/ECMWF/GEM ARE ALL IN EXCELLENT AGREEMENT WITH THE 00Z NAM
DEEPER AND FARTHER NORTH WITH THE SURFACE LOW. NCEP/WPC FORECASTERS
RECOMMEND A SOLUTION CLOSER TO THE GFS/ECMWF CONSENSUS...ALTHOUGH
WITH THE IDEA THAT THIS MAY BE JUST SLIGHTLY TOO FAR SOUTH.

A SURFACE LOW WILL REACH THE LOWER OHIO VALLEY BY WEDNESDAY
MORNING...BEFORE CROSSING CENTRAL PA DURING THE DAY AND REACHING NYC
BY EVENING. THIS LOW WILL CONTINUE INTO THE GULF OF MAINE BY
THURSDAY MORNING. ALOFT...THE PACIFIC VORTICITY MAXIMA AND THE
NORTHERN STREAM TROUGH WILL FULLY PHASE BY THE TIME THE SYSTEM
REACHES OUR LONGITUDE...WHICH IS NOTABLY FASTER IN PHASING THAN
MODEL GUIDANCE FROM SEVERAL DAYS AGO AND EXPLAINS THE DEEPER/FARTHER
NORTH TREND SEEN IN RECENT MODEL RUNS. THE PHASING STREAMS AND AMPLE
MOISTURE WILL PRODUCE AN INCREDIBLY DYNAMIC SYSTEM.

FRONTOGENESIS AND DEFORMATION IN THE 850-600MB LAYER WILL RAPIDLY
INCREASE ACROSS THE ENTIRE REGION WEDNESDAY MORNING AS THE MID LEVEL
TROUGH PHASES AND DEEPENS...FORCING STRONG DOWNSTREAM AGEOSTROPHIC
FLOW ADJUSTMENTS. AT THE SAME TIME...STRONG UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENCE
WILL DEVELOP WITHIN A COUPLED JET STRUCTURE FORMED BY THE RIGHT
ENTRANCE REGION OF A 150+ KNOT UPPER LEVEL JET OVER QUEBEC...AND A
120+ KNOT UPPER LEVEL JET OVER THE LOWER OHIO VALLEY. THIS WILL
COMBINE TO PRODUCE A PERIOD OF DEEP LAYER ASCENT. A 12 HOUR PERIOD
OF STRONG ISENTROPIC UPGLIDE WILL ALSO BE FEATURED DURING THE FIRST
HALF OF THE EVENT FROM LATE TONIGHT THROUGH LATE WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON. MOISTURE WILL BE MORE THAN AMPLE DURING THIS TIME
FRAME...WITH AROUND 4 G/KG SPECIFIC HUMIDITY NEAR THE 700MB LAYER.
USING THESE DATA...THE GARCIA METHOD SUGGESTS AROUND 8 INCHES OF
ACCUMULATION IN SOME AREAS JUST FROM THE WARM ADVECTION PHASE OF THE
STORM.

DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING THE SURFACE LOW WILL BE RAPIDLY
DEEPENING AS IT PASSES BY TO OUR SOUTH. AS THE SYSTEM MATURES...
MODEL GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THE DEVELOPMENT OF A WELL DEFINED TROWAL
AIRSTREAM AND ASSOCIATED COMMA HEAD TO THE NORTHWEST OF THE SURFACE
LOW TRACK. WITHIN THE TROWAL...STRONG DEFORMATION AND FRONTOGENESIS
WILL CONTINUE TO SUPPORT STRONG CONVERGENCE. THIS WILL CONTINUE TO
PRODUCE MODERATE TO HEAVY SNOW INTO THE EVENING BEFORE SLOWLY
TAPERING OFF FROM WEST TO EAST OVERNIGHT. THE AIRMASS WILL GROW COLD
ENOUGH FOR LAKE ENHANCEMENT ALONG THE SOUTH SHORE OF LAKE ONTARIO
DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING AS LAKE INDUCED EQUILIBRIUM LEVELS
RISE TO AROUND 7K FEET. THIS WILL LIKELY ADD AT LEAST A FEW INCHES
TO TOTALS ALONG THE SOUTH SHORE OF LAKE ONTARIO. STRONG WINDS WILL
CARRY THIS ENHANCEMENT WELL INLAND...PROBABLY AS FAR SOUTH AS ABOUT
THE NYS THRUWAY. NORTHERLY FLOW WILL ALSO RESULT IN UPSLOPE
ENHANCEMENT DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING ACROSS THE CHAUTAUQUA
RIDGE AND OTHER NORTHWARD FACING SLOPES IN THE SOUTHERN TIER AND
FINGER LAKES.

PRECIP TYPE WILL ALSO BE A CONCERN THROUGH THE FIRST HALF OF THE
EVENT ACROSS THE SOUTHERN TIER. EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING IT WILL
LIKELY STILL BE WARM ENOUGH FOR JUST PLAIN RAIN ACROSS MUCH OF THE
WESTERN SOUTHERN TIER COUNTIES...WITH A NARROW ZONE OF WINTRY MIX
TRANSITION ACROSS SOUTHERN ERIE/WYOMING/LIVINGSTON/ONTARIO COUNTIES.
THIS TRANSITION WILL SINK SLOWLY SOUTH DURING THE MORNING...THEN
ACCELERATE INTO PA DURING THE AFTERNOON WITH RAIN CHANGING OVER TO
SNOW. THE CHANGEOVER MAY GO THROUGH A PERIOD OF SLEET AND FREEZING
RAIN WITH MINOR ICE AMOUNTS POSSIBLE.

STORM TOTAL SNOW AMOUNTS OF 12-16 INCHES ARE NOW EXPECTED IN MOST
AREAS WITH SOME 18 INCH AMOUNTS POSSIBLE TO THE SOUTH OF LAKE
ONTARIO INCLUDING THE GREATER ROCHESTER AREA WHERE LAKE ENHANCEMENT
WILL DEVELOP. IF THE CURRENT PTYPE FORECAST HOLDS...AMOUNTS WILL BE
CONSIDERABLY LOWER NEAR THE PA STATE LINE. HOURLY SNOWFALL RATES MAY
REACH OR EXCEED 2 INCHES PER HOUR LOCALLY IN ANY MESOSCALE BANDING
THAT DEVELOPS. SOME THUNDER AND LIGHTNING IS NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION
WITH MODEL GUIDANCE SUGGESTING THE POTENTIAL FOR SLANTWISE OR EVEN
UPRIGHT CONVECTION. SOME MODEL POINT SOUNDINGS SHOW AS MUCH AS
80J/KG OF CAPE FOR PARCELS ROOTED IN THE 700MB LAYER.

NORTH WINDS WILL BECOME QUITE STRONG ESPECIALLY WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON
AND EVENING PRODUCING SIGNIFICANT BLOWING AND DRIFTING SNOW AND NEAR
BLIZZARD CONDITIONS AT TIMES...ESPECIALLY WITHIN 20 MILES OF THE
SOUTH SHORE OF LAKE ONTARIO.

TEMPERATURES WILL PLUMMET THROUGH THE 20S AND INTO THE TEENS DURING
THE DAY WEDNESDAY...THEN INTO THE SINGLE NUMBERS WEDNESDAY NIGHT. A
FEW SPOTS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN TIER AND EAST OF LAKE ONTARIO MAY DROP
TO A FEW DEGREES BELOW ZERO BY THURSDAY MORNING.

ON THURSDAY ANY LEFTOVER WRAP AROUND/DEFORMATION SNOW EAST OF LAKE
ONTARIO IN THE MORNING WILL TAPER OFF. LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS WILL
STILL BE LIKELY SOUTH AND SOUTHEAST OF LAKE ONTARIO ESPECIALLY
DURING THE FIRST HALF OF THE DAY. THIS MAY ADD A FEW MORE INCHES IN
SOME SPOTS. TEMPERATURES WILL BE FRIGID BY MID MARCH STANDARDS...
WITH HIGHS STRUGGLING TO REACH THE MID TEENS ACROSS LOWER ELEVATIONS
AND POSSIBLY NOT GETTING OUT OF THE SINGLE NUMBERS ON THE HILLS. IT
WILL REMAIN QUITE WINDY WITH BLOWING AND DRIFTING SNOW ONGOING
ESPECIALLY IN OPEN AREAS.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
COLDER AIR WILL FOLLOW THE STORM WITH NORTHERLY WINDS ACROSS LAKE
ONTARIO PRODUCING A BROAD AREA OF LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS SOUTH OF
THE LAKE ON THURSDAY. AN EXTREMELY COLD AIRMASS FOR MID MARCH WILL
DUMP INTO THE TROUGH IN THE WAKE OF THIS SYSTEM. HIGHS WILL STRUGGLE
TO REACH THE MID TEENS ACROSS LOWER ELEVATIONS...WITH LOWER TEENS
ACROSS HIGHER TERRAIN.

THE COLD WILL BE SHORT LIVED AS THE TROUGH REMAINS PROGRESSIVE AND
QUICKLY MOVES OUT OF THE AREA. EXPECT TEMPERATURES TO RECOVER TO
NEAR AVERAGE AGAIN BY FRIDAY. THE NEXT CHANCE OF LIGHT SNOW WILL
ARRIVE LATER FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY AS A WEAKER MID LEVEL TROUGH
DIGS INTO THE GREAT LAKES AND NORTHEAST. HIGHS ON FRIDAY AND
SATURDAY WILL BE IN THE MID TO UPPER 30S OR EVEN LOWER 40S IN THE
WARMER SPOTS.

HIGH PRESSURE RIDGING IN ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES WILL BRING AN END TO
ANY CHANCE OF PRECIP BY SUNDAY. IT WILL ALSO TURN COLDER HOWEVER
WITH TEMPERATURES RETURNING TO BELOW AVERAGE.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE DAYLIGHT HOURS...GENERAL VFR CONDITIONS
WILL PREVAIL UNDER GRADUALLY INCREASING MID AND HIGH CLOUDS.

TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY...A DEVELOPING WINTER STORM OVER THE
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY WILL STRENGTHEN AND LIFT NORTHEASTWARD...AND WILL
SLIDE EAST ALONG THE MASON-DIXON LINE WEDNESDAY. LIGHT PRECIP WELL
OUT IN ADVANCE OF THIS SYSTEM WILL SPREAD INTO THE AREA FROM
SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST TONIGHT...INITIALLY STARTING OFF LARGELY IN
THE FORM OF RAIN BEFORE MIXING WITH SLEET AND SNOW...THEN CHANGING
TO ALL SNOW IN MOST LOCATIONS BY 12Z WEDNESDAY. THE SNOW WILL THEN
BECOME HEAVIER AS THE DAY PROGRESSES ON WEDNESDAY...WITH SIGNIFICANT
BLOWING SNOW ALSO DEVELOPING AS WINDS INCREASE MARKEDLY OUT OF THE
NORTH AND NORTHEAST.

GIVEN THE ABOVE...INITIAL VFR CONDITIONS TO START OFF THIS EVENING
WILL LOWER TO MVFR AND IFR TONIGHT...WITH WIDESPREAD LIFR/IFR
CONDITIONS THEN EXPECTED DURING WEDNESDAY.

OUTLOOK...
WEDNESDAY NIGHT...LIFR/IFR IN GRADUALLY DIMINISHING SNOW IN MOST
LOCATIONS...WITH THE SNOW LINGERING LONGEST SOUTHEAST OF LAKE
ONTARIO.
THURSDAY...VFR/MVFR...WITH IFR/MVFR IN SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SNOW
SHOWERS.
FRIDAY...MAINLY VFR WITH A CHANCE OF SNOW SHOWERS EAST OF LAKE
ONTARIO.
SATURDAY...VFR/MVFR WITH A CHANCE OF SNOW SHOWERS.
SUNDAY...MAINLY VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
A MODEST SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ACROSS THE LOWER LAKES REGION WILL
WEAKEN TODAY AS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT GOES FLAT. A DEVELOPING WINTER
STORM WILL THEN BRING NORTHEASTERLY GALE-FORCE WINDS TO LAKE ONTARIO
ON WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT. A GALE WARNING IS NOW IN EFFECT.
ACROSS FROZEN LAKE ERIE A GALE WATCH IS IN EFFECT AS NORTHEAST WINDS
MAY APPROACH GALE STRENGTH. THE STORM DEPARTS ACROSS THE GULF OF
MAINE TO THE CANADIAN MARITIMES THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT WITH
SLACKENING NORTHWESTERLY WINDS ON THE LOWER GREAT LAKES.

&&

.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...WINTER STORM WARNING FROM 2 AM WEDNESDAY TO 2 AM EDT THURSDAY
     FOR NYZ001-002-010>012-085.
     WINTER STORM WARNING FROM 8 AM WEDNESDAY TO 8 AM EDT THURSDAY
     FOR NYZ006>008.
     WINTER STORM WARNING FROM 5 AM WEDNESDAY TO 5 AM EDT THURSDAY
     FOR NYZ003>005-013-014.
     WINTER STORM WARNING FROM 8 AM WEDNESDAY TO 2 AM EDT THURSDAY
     FOR NYZ019>021.
MARINE...GALE WATCH FROM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY EVENING
         FOR LEZ040.
         GALE WARNING FROM 8 AM WEDNESDAY TO 5 AM EDT THURSDAY
         FOR LOZ043>045-063>065.
         GALE WARNING FROM 8 AM TO 11 PM EDT WEDNESDAY FOR LOZ042-
         062.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...JJR/SMITH
NEAR TERM...JJR
SHORT TERM...HITCHCOCK
LONG TERM...APFFEL
AVIATION...JJR
MARINE...JJR/SMITH