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000
FXUS61 KBUF 281612
AFDBUF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
1212 PM EDT MON JUL 28 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE LOCATED OVER CENTRAL NEW YORK WILL MOVE INTO NEW
ENGLAND TONIGHT. RAIN WILL TAPER OFF FROM SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST
ACROSS THE AREA FROM LATER THIS AFTERNOON INTO THE EARLY OVERNIGHT.
A COOLER PATTERN WILL THEN SET UP THROUGH MID WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
QUICK UPDATE TO DROP FLOOD WATCH FOR WESTERN SOUTHERN TIER AND
NIAGARA FRONTIER COUNTIES.  WILL KEEP THE WATCH IN EFFECT FOR
MONROE...LIVINGSTON...ONTARIO...AND WAYNE COUNTIES.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...

AREAS OF WIDESPREAD SHOWERS WITH VARYING INTENSITY ACROSS THE ENTIRE
AREA THIS MORNING. THERE IS SOME EMBEDDED THUNDER IN THE STRONGEST
SHOWERS. THIS APPEARS TO BE MAINLY RIGHT UNDER AND JUST AHEAD OF THE
UPPER LOW NOW OVER ONTARIO COUNTY. AS THIS FEATURE PULLS EAST LATER
TODAY...THUNDER CHANCES WILL DECREASE.

LEADING EDGE OF DEFORMATION AXIS WILL PIVOT SOUTHEASTWARD INTO
NORTHCENTRAL NEW YORK LATE THIS MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON AS THE
SURFACE LOW AND POTENT UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE PIVOT NORTHEAST INTO
NEW ENGLAND. ADDITIONAL RAIN TODAY WILL GENERALLY RANGE BETWEEN A
HALF TO ONE INCH...WITH ISOLATED INCH PLUS AMOUNTS IN THE VICINITY
OF THE UPPER LOW.

A NORTHERLY FLOW OF COOLER AIR WILL BE IN PLACE ACROSS THE AREA
TODAY. THIS IN COMBINATION WITH CLOUDS AND PRECIP WILL KEEP
TEMPERATURES IN THE 60S AREA WIDE...WHICH IS UNSEASONABLY COOL FOR
THIS TIME OF YEAR. THESE READINGS ARE MORE TYPICAL OF MID SEPTEMBER
GIVING THE FALLISH FEEL TO THE AIR. HOWEVER ABOUT HALF OF JULYS IN
RECENT DECADES FOR BOTH BUFFALO AND ROCHESTER HAVE AT LEAST ONE DAY
WITH HIGHS ONLY IN THE 60S...SO THIS COOL COUPLE OF DAYS ARE NOT
ANYTHING EXTREME.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
A BROAD LONGWAVE TROUGH WILL REMAIN IN PLACE OVER THE NORTHEAST
QUARTER OF THE NATION THROUGH THE SHORT TERM PERIOD AND BRING
ANOMALOUSLY COOL TEMPERATURES TO THE GREAT LAKES AND NORTHEAST.
CYCLONIC FLOW AND WRAP AROUND MOISTURE COMBINED WITH A SERIES OF MID
LEVEL SHORTWAVES AND SURFACE TROUGHS WILL PRODUCE A FEW SHOWERS FROM
TIME TO TIME. THE AIRMASS WILL ALSO BE COOL ENOUGH TO SUPPORT SOME
LAKE RESPONSE WITH LAKE EFFECT SHOWERS EAST AND NORTHEAST OF BOTH
LAKES AT TIMES...MAINLY DURING THE LATE NIGHT AND EARLY MORNING
HOURS.

LOOKING AT THE DETAILS...TUESDAY MORNING SHOULD START DRY WITH AN
AREA OF SOMEWHAT DRIER AIR AND SUBSIDENCE OVER UPSTATE NY. DEEPER
WRAP AROUND MOISTURE AND A WEAK MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE WILL PUSH INTO
WESTERN NY DURING THE MIDDAY AND AFTERNOON WITH INCREASING CHANCES
OF SCATTERED SHOWERS. THE SCATTERED SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE TUESDAY
NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY AS THE AXIS OF THE MID LEVEL TROUGH SLOWLY
CROSSES THE AREA. EXPECT SOME LAKE ENHANCEMENT TO THE SHOWERS EAST
AND NORTHEAST OF LAKES ERIE AND ONTARIO LATE TUESDAY NIGHT AND
WEDNESDAY MORNING.

LATER WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON THE SHOWERS SHOULD DECREASE IN COVERAGE
ACROSS WESTERN NY AS DEEPER LOW LEVEL MOISTURE SLOWLY PUSHES INTO
CENTRAL AND EASTERN NY. WEDNESDAY NIGHT SHOWERS SHOULD BECOME
ISOLATED AS DEEPER MOISTURE PULLS AWAY...ALTHOUGH WITH LINGERING
CYCLONIC FLOW AND SOME LINGERING LAKE INSTABILITY A FEW MAY CONTINUE
THROUGH THE NIGHT.

TEMPERATURES WILL RUN BELOW AVERAGE FOR MID SUMMER...WITH HIGHS ON
TUESDAY ONLY INTO THE VERY LOW 70S AT LOW ELEVATIONS AND MID TO
UPPER 60S ACROSS HIGHER TERRAIN. WEDNESDAY WILL BE A FEW DEGREES
WARMER WITH MID 70S AT LOWER ELEVATIONS AND AROUND 70 ON THE HILLS.
OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL BE ON THE COOL SIDE...BUT CLOUD COVER WILL TEND
TO LIMIT RADIATIONAL COOLING. EXPECT LOWS TUESDAY NIGHT AND
WEDNESDAY NIGHT IN THE MID TO UPPER 50S ON THE LAKE PLAINS AND LOWER
50S IN THE COOLER INLAND AREAS.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
THE DEEP LONGWAVE TROUGH OVER THE GREAT LAKES AND NORTHEASTERN STATE
DURING MIDWEEK WILL SLOWLY DE-AMPLIFY AND RETREAT INTO QUEBEC BY THE
END OF THE WEEK. MOST OF THE TIME WILL BE DRY THURSDAY AND FRIDAY
ALTHOUGH A FEW SPOTTY SHOWERS ARE STILL POSSIBLE. TEMPERATURES WILL
CONTINUE THEIR SLOW WARMING TREND AS THE AIRMASS MODIFIES AND THE
MID LEVEL TROUGH BEGINS TO PULL OUT.

THE SLOW WARMING TREND WILL CONTINUE ON SATURDAY AND SUNDAY...BUT A
CLOSED LOW DEVELOPING OVER THE OHIO VALLEY MAY FORCE ATLANTIC
MOISTURE TO SPREAD NORTH INTO OUR REGION WITH A CHANCE OF SHOWERS
AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS SATURDAY AND SUNDAY AFTERNOONS...WITH THE
GREATEST CHANCES PROBABLY OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF THE SOUTHERN
TIER AND FINGER LAKES.

&&

.AVIATION /16Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
WIDESPREAD CEILINGS AOB 1K FT WITH VSBYS 1-3SM IN +RA BR ACROSS MUCH
OF THE REGION. THESE CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN IN PLACE FOR MUCH OF THE
DAY...WITH CEILINGS RISING TO 4-5K FT ACROSS NORTHWESTERN PORTIONS
OF THE NIAGARA FRONTIER BY LATE AFTERNOON...INCLUDING KBUF AND KIAG.

CEILING WILL RISE TO 4-5K FT ACROSS MOST LOCATIONS THIS EVENING AS
DRIER FILTERS IN...AND SHOULD LAST THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE
OVERNIGHT...WITH THE EXCEPTION OF THE WESTERN SOUTHERN TIER WHERE
COOL MOIST WESTERLY UPSLOPE FLOW WILL BRING CEILINGS DOWN TO 1-2K FT.

OUTLOOK...
TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...NO SIGNIFICANT WEATHER EXPECTED.

&&

.MARINE...
LOW PRESSURE WILL PIVOT NORTHEAST ACROSS NEW ENGLAND BY TONIGHT. A
FAIRLY TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT IS NOW IN PLACE WITH A MODERATE
NORTHERLY FLOW THAT WILL WEAKEN LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO THIS
EVENING. THAT SAID...SMALL CRAFT HEADLINES ARE IN EFFECT FOR ALL OF
LAKE ONTARIO....LAKE ERIE AND THE NIAGARA RIVER THROUGH LATE THIS
AFTERNOON/EVENING.

WINDS WILL DIMINISH TONIGHT...WITH A WEAKER FLOW FORECAST FOR
MID-WEEK. COOLER TEMPERATURES ALOFT SUGGEST THERE IS A CHANCE FOR
WATERSPOUTS ON TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY FOR BOTH LAKES.

&&

.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 5 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR NYZ003-004-013-
     014.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 5 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR LEZ020.
         SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR
         LEZ040-041.
         SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 5 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON
         FOR LOZ030.
         SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR
         LOZ042>045.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...FRANKLIN/JM
NEAR TERM...FRANKLIN/JM
SHORT TERM...HITCHCOCK
LONG TERM...HITCHCOCK
AVIATION...FRANKLIN/JM
MARINE...FRANKLIN/JM