Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Charleston, SC

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FXUS62 KCHS 252339
AFDCHS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC
639 PM EST THU DEC 25 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL PERSIST THROUGH FRIDAY BEFORE SHIFTING OFF THE
COAST SATURDAY. A WEAK FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL LIFT NORTH SATURDAY
NIGHT AND SUNDAY...THEN A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA
TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT. ANOTHER STORM SYSTEM COULD THREATEN THE
AREA BEGINNING ON THURSDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY MORNING/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD FROM THE WEST
OVERNIGHT...SUPPORTING EXCELLENT RADIATIONAL COOLING CONDITIONS.
BY DAYBREAK...TEMPERATURES AWAY FROM THE COAST WILL FALL INTO THE
LOWER TO MID 30S AT MANY LOCATIONS. ALONG THE IMMEDIATE
COAST...VARIABLE/OFFSHORE WINDS THIS EVENING WILL GIVE WAY TO N/NE
WINDS OVERNIGHT. THUS...TEMPS OVERNIGHT COULD LEVEL OFF OR EVEN
RISE ON THE BEACHES/SEA ISLANDS.

GIVEN THE WET GROUND DUE TO RECENT HEAVY RAIN...CONDITIONS APPEAR
FAVORABLE FOR PATCHY GROUND FOG OVERNIGHT INTO EARLY FRIDAY. WILL
CONTINUE TO ASSESS POTENTIAL COVERAGE/IMPACTS OF FOG.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY/...
A BROAD 500 MB RIDGE CENTERED OVER NORTHERN CUBA WILL MAINTAIN A
WARM AND DEEP SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST UNITED STATES.
WITH THE EXCEPTION OF SOME JET-INDUCED CIRRUS...FRIDAY WILL BE SUNNY
WITH THICKNESSES SUPPORTING MID-60S HIGH TEMPS.

ON SATURDAY THE LOW-LEVEL RIDGE WILL SHIFT SLIGHTLY EAST WITH
INCREASING SOUTHERLY FLOW. THIS WILL YIELD MOISTURE ADVECTION AND
INCREASING CLOUD COVER. SOME SHORTWAVE ENERGY WILL RIPPLE THROUGH
CENTRAL SC SATURDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH SUNDAY...PRODUCING SCATTERED
SHOWERS ACROSS THE AREA...ESPECIALLY INLAND AREAS. WE SHOW 20-30
POPS DURING THIS PERIOD. DESPITE THE OVERCAST SKIES...LOW-LEVEL WARM
ADVECTION WILL ALLOW HIGH TEMPS TO REACH THE UPPER 60S SATURDAY AND
LOWER 70S SUNDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
MODELS ARE IN UNUSUALLY GOOD AGREEMENT DURING THE LONG TERM PERIOD
THIS FORECAST CYCLE. THE LONG TERM WILL START OUT QUITE WARM WITH
LOWS SUNDAY NIGHT NOT TOO FAR FROM 60...WHICH IS NEAR THE NORMAL
HIGH TEMPERATURES DURING THIS TIME OF THE YEAR. HIGHS ON MONDAY
EXPECTED TO BE IN THE 70S. A GRADUAL COOL DOWN WILL BEGIN ON TUESDAY
AS COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH. THERE WILL BE A THREAT FOR SHOWERS
SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT. IT CURRENTLY APPEARS THAT
WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT WILL BE DRY BEFORE THE NEXT STORM
SYSTEMS BRINGS A THREAT FOR SHOWERS AGAIN ON THURSDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
GROUND FOG COULD OCCASIONALLY/BRIEFLY REDUCE VISIBILITY AT KCHS
AND KSAV OVERNIGHT/EARLY FRIDAY. 00Z TAFS MENTION SHALLOW GROUND
FOG 06-14Z BUT MAINTAIN VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH FRIDAY.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...LOW CHANCES OF MVFR CIGS/VSBYS SATURDAY
INTO TUESDAY AS MOISTURE INCREASES OVER THE AREA.

&&

.MARINE...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL PREVAIL TONIGHT. VARIABLE/MOSTLY OFFSHORE WINDS
THIS EVENING WILL GIVE WAY TO N/NE WINDS 15 KT OR LESS OVERNIGHT.
SEAS WILL RANGE FROM 1-2 FT WITHIN NEARSHORE WATERS TO AS HIGH AS
3-4 FT BEYOND 20 NM.

FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE IN CONTROL INTO
EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH FAIRLY WEAK WINDS AND SEAS MAINLY AT OR BELOW
3 FT. INCREASING MOISTURE WITH DEWPOINTS AT OR ABOVE 60 COULD
RESULT IN SEA FOG STARTING AS EARLY AS SATURDAY NIGHT. THE THREAT
FOR SEA FOG COULD CONTINUE UNTIL A COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH ON
TUESDAY OR TUESDAY NIGHT.

&&

.CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
SC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...RJB/SPR
SHORT TERM...JRL
LONG TERM...
AVIATION...JRL/RJB/SPR
MARINE...JRL/RJB/SPR






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