Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Charleston, SC
FXUS62 KCHS 100900
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Charleston SC
400 AM EST Sat Dec 10 2016
High pressure will prevail until the development and passage of a
coastal trough into Sunday night. A cold front will then shift into
the area Monday night before lingering in the vicinity through mid
week. The front will push offshore Wednesday night and be followed
by cooler temperatures for late week.
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
Today: Temps will start off chilly with high pressure extending
across the region and a light northerly flow in place. Dry and
cooler conditions will persist through the afternoon while the
center of sfc high pressure to our west/northwest becomes centered
over the Mid-Atlantic states this evening. However, temps should
be a degree or two warmer than the previous day as cold air
advection begins to weaken within a zonal flow aloft. High temps
are expected to reach the low/mid 50s under a full sun, warmest
for locations south of Interstate 16 in Southeast Georgia.
Tonight: High pressure will extend across the region for much of the
overnight period. However, a weak coastal trough should develop off
the Florida and Southeast Georgia coasts late tonight. At this time,
any precip associated with the developing tough is expected to
remain offshore through the overnight period. Some clouds could
advect onshore late, especially in Southeast Georgia. Overnight lows
will be warmer than the previous night with increasing cloud cover
from the south late. In general, temps should range in the lower 30s
well inland to mid/upper 30s closer to the coast.
.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
High pressure centered to the north near Delmarva will weaken and
push offshore Sunday while a trough of low pressure off the
Southeast U.S. coast shifts northward into Sunday night. This
feature will lead to increasing clouds and possibly a few showers,
mainly near the coast. Dense fog will be possible Monday morning,
mainly from the lowering of stratus. A cold front will then approach
the area from the northwest Monday with breezy conditions likely and
some showers possible, mainly inland toward the CSRA/Midlands. The
front looks to push into the area Monday night and then stall over
or near the area Tuesday and this will keep conditions unsettled
with increased cloud cover and rain chances. A few weak
thunderstorms can`t be ruled out Monday through Tuesday given
slightly higher instability. Temperatures should warm through Monday
before cooling Tuesday, although still remaining above normal.
.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
Low pressure will likely move along the stalled front across the
area keeping it unsettled through Wednesday. Drier conditions are
then expected Wednesday night as high pressure builds in from the
northwest. High pressure should then keep things cool/dry into
Friday before another coastal trough potentially develops and brings
more clouds/showers back into the area. Temperatures should mainly
be near or above normal through Thursday night before possibly
falling below normal Friday, then back near or above normal Saturday
assuming the coastal trough pushes northward as a warm front.
.AVIATION /09Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
VFR conditions will prevail at the CHS and SAV terminals through 06Z
Extended Aviation Outlook: MVFR cigs/vsbys likely late Sun night into
Mon morning with IFR or lower restrictions possible due to low clouds/fog.
Restrictions likely into Wed due to low clouds/showers.
Today and Tonight: High pressure will extend over the coastal waters
through much of today and early tonight with conditions that remain
below Small Craft Advisory level conditions. A weak coastal trough
is then expected to develop late tonight along the Florida and
Southeast Georgia coasts. A slight enhancement to the pressure
gradient associated with this feature should support winds that gust
up to 15-20 kt at times over offshore Georgia waters. Otherwise,
expect a gradual veering of winds from the north to the east-northeast
late as the coastal trough takes shape. Seas will range between
2-4 ft through tonight, highest in offshore Georgia waters.
Sunday through Thursday: A weak coastal trough will shift north
through the area through Sunday night. A cold front will then move
into the area Monday night before stalling out over the area or
nearby through mid week. An area of low pressure could develop and
move along the front with conditions possibly nearing Advisory
levels at some point for at least a portion of the local waters,
especially the Charleston County and offshore GA waters. Also, sea
fog will be possible over the chilly near shore waters, mainly
Monday and Monday night.
Coastal Flooding...The upcoming lunar perigee and full moon along
with periods of onshore winds could push tides to advisory levels
near times of the early morning high tides Sunday into the middle
of next week, especially along the SC coast.