Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Dodge City, KS

Home | Current Version | Previous Version | Text Only | Print | Product List | Glossary On
Versions: 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44 45 46 47 48 49 50
FXUS63 KDDC 252051

National Weather Service Dodge City KS
251 PM CST WED NOV 25 2015

...Updated long term section...


The upper level low will shift into the Central Rockies tonight
and sit there through the short term period. Weak impulses will
eject around its periphery and head to our area enhancing lift.
Mid to upper level moisture will increase tonight creating a cloud
deck above western Kansas. Towards the surface, an area of low
pressure located across eastern Colorado will intensify with an
associated cold front pushing south into portions of Kansas
tonight and through most of our area by sunrise tomorrow. Moist
southerly winds will feed into central Kansas as this boundary
approaches leading to low stratus or possibly fog in some places.
Northerly winds are anticipated behind this front with much cooler
air. There is a slight chance of light rain showers around
midnight across central and south central Kansas. However, most
precipitation should hold off until after midnight. Rain chances
increase and spread across the remainder of the CWA after
midnight, otherwise mostly cloudy skies will be visible.
Temperatures across west central Kansas look to dip at or below
freezing towards sunrise leading to the chance of freezing
rain/sleet/snow or a combination of these elements. Lows tonight
look to range from the upper 20s across west central Kansas to mid
50s across south central Kansas.

Precipitation chances continue into tomorrow along the
aforementioned cold front as well as farther north where mid level
frontogenesis and isentropic lift will be present. The best chance
for precipitation will be across south central Kansas, but a good
chance will also be present across the remainder of the forecast
area throughout the day. Strong cold air advection will be felt
behind the cold front tomorrow leading to steady or falling
temperatures throughout the day. The only exception to this will
be across portions of south central Kansas where the temp may
increase a few degrees in the morning. Highs in most places will
be around midnight and range from the upper 20s across west
central Kansas to upper 50s across south central Kansas.
Precipitation type has been the main challenge for this forecast
as a warm tongue is present above the surface. During the morning
hours, rain is expected across south central Kansas and along the
KS/OK border. The remainder of the CWA is anticipated to observe a
wide range of precip types from rain, freezing rain, sleet, to
snow. Light accumulations of snow will be possible across west
central Kansas with some accumulating ice across this same area as
well as portions of western Kansas and the I-70 corridor around
Hays. This mix of precipitation types look to shift southeastward
in the afternoon. Up to an inch of snow will be possible across
west central Kansas in the afternoon with over a tenth of an inch
of ice expected across eastern portions of the CWA.

.LONG TERM...(Thursday NIGHT THROUGH Wednesday)

The storm system mentioned in the short term will continue to
wreak havoc across the CWA tomorrow night into Friday with snow
showers continuing across west and west central Kansas and
freezing rain across central and south central Kansas. A mix of
snow, sleet, and freezing rain will be expected in between these
two areas. Most of the CWA should change over to snow by Friday
afternoon with the exception of portions of south central Kansas
where freezing rain or sleet will remain be possible. The chance
of wintry precipitation will continue through the weekend as more
upper level impulses move around the periphery of the upper level
low over the Central Rockies. Winds will generally be from a
northerly direction through at least Saturday as high pressure
builds into the area then shift to more of an easterly direction
Saturday night into Sunday as the dome of high pressure treks to
the east. Skies look to be mostly cloudy through the weekend. Snow
totals up to 5 inches will be possible through the end of this
weekend with over a quarter inch of ice east of a line from
Liberal to Great Bend. The upper level low then moves over the
Plains during the beginning of next week bringing decreased
cloudiness, drier conditions, and warmer temperatures. Lows
ranging from the upper teens across far western Kansas to mid 20s
across central and south central Kansas are anticipated through
Sunday morning then increase into the 20s early next week. Highs
are forecasted to only reach into the upper 20s Friday and
Saturday then rebound into the 30s Sunday and Monday. Highs in the
lower 40s will be possible Tuesday into Wednesday.



VFR conditions will prevail this afternoon into tonight with
increasing high clouds this afternoon and increasing mid level
clouds this evening into tonight. Winds will generally be from the
southwest this afternoon shifting to more of a northerly direction
by this evening due to a cold front moving through the area. Wind
speeds should remain light until after sundown.


DDC  39  39  23  26 /  70  90  70  60
GCK  34  34  21  27 /  40  70  60  50
EHA  36  36  21  28 /  40  70  60  60
LBL  42  44  22  28 /  60  80  70  70
HYS  35  35  22  27 /  60  80  70  30
P28  54  57  26  30 /  80 100  80  70


.DDC Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
Winter Weather Advisory from 3 AM CST /2 AM MST/ Thursday to
midnight CST /11 PM MST/ Thursday night for KSZ030-031-043>046-

Winter Weather Advisory from 6 PM Thursday to 6 PM CST Friday
for KSZ065-066-078>081-086>090.



SHORT TERM...Hovorka_42
LONG TERM...Hovorka_42
AVIATION...Hovorka_42 is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.