Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Dodge City, KS

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FXUS63 KDDC 252348
AFDDDC

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Dodge City KS
648 PM CDT Mon Sep 25 2017

...Updated aviation discussion...

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Tuesday)
Issued at 425 PM CDT Mon Sep 25 2017

A 500 mb shortwave was centered over central Wyoming, and farther
south, a broad area of surface/850mb front overrunning convection
was present over the panhandles and northwest Oklahoma. The
cold front across our region was slowly moving eastward, however
will still be straddled across the area late this  afternoon and
evening, to be the focus for continued rounds of shower and
thunderstorms as the strong 850 mb moisture transport over the
panhandles impinges on the boundary. Of the convective allowing
models, the HRRR has been the most well adaptive model to this
evolution for additional rounds of showers/storms through this
evening. Given the high theta-e/moisture content air and low level
forcing, some locations of localized flooding could occur
especially  in the southeast counties, enhancing the already 3 to 4
inches across Pratt and Barber counties. High uncertainty exists
with respect to just when the precipitation will end. Light fog and
drizzle may be enhanced behind the surface boundary overnight based
on the northeast unsloped surface winds, stratus and extreme light
precipitation fields lingering in the CAMs. However the models
relegate any dense fog well to the west over the higher terrain in
Colorado overnight.

.LONG TERM...(Tuesday night through Monday)
Issued at 425 PM CDT Mon Sep 25 2017

Normal highs for southwest kansas has fallen into the upper 70s
range now for late September. From mid week forward, we will be
cooler than normal initially with a slow/gradual warming trend
through end of the week as the central Plains surface high shifts
east allowing a return to southerly surface winds by the weekend.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Tuesday evening)
Issued at 648 PM CDT Mon Sep 25 2017

Light rain is rapidly moving out of southwest Kansas early this
evening and will be moving out of the Hays area by 02z. Only a
very slight chance for showers is expected through the remainder
of the night. There is an area of VFR conditions trailing the
rain shield but IFR to LIFR ceilings are expected to redevelop
this evening. This should continue overnight into Tuesday morning
before ceilings lift into the MVFR category.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC  51  63  49  67 /  50  20  20  20
GCK  49  61  47  67 /  30  20  10  10
EHA  47  58  46  64 /  20  20  20  20
LBL  50  59  49  65 /  20  20  20  20
HYS  50  63  48  68 /  50  10  10  10
P28  56  64  55  69 /  80  40  30  30

&&

.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Russell
LONG TERM...Russell
AVIATION...Gerard



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