Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Austin/San Antonio, TX
FXUS64 KEWX 270531
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Austin/San Antonio TX
1231 AM CDT Thu Oct 27 2016
VFR conditions are currently prevailing across South-Central
Texas. The forecast tonight and into the morning hours will be
dependent on possible stratus or fog formation. Opted to keep AUS
at low MVFR conditions and will only TEMPO IFR for the San Antonio
sites. The timing of the restrictions will be around 11-15z and a
few hours later for the MVFR restrictions for DRT. VFR will return
after 15z with light southerly winds continuing through the
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 631 PM CDT Wed Oct 26 2016/
00Z Aviation update below.
VFR conditions under mainly clear skies through the evening and
part of the overnight. Once again tricky forecast with respect to
coverage of status and fog. MOS and hi res model guidance suggests
window between 10Z-15Z of patchy IFR visibilities and ceilings in
fog and stratus across portions of the Hill Country, I-35 corridor,
and east of I-35. There is a possibility of some locations between
SAT and AUS going LIFR 12Z-14Z, but with lower confidence have
elected for IFR at SAT/SSF/AUS and will take closer look at 06Z
TAF cycle. Could be a window after sunrise from 13Z-17Z where DRT
experiences MVFR ceilings. Winds generally becoming light and
variable overnight at SAT/SSF/AUS and SE around 5 kts at DRT.
A few models suggesting isolated SHRAs tomorrow afternoon across
Central Texas and the Hill Country, west of AUS and north of SAT.
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 230 PM CDT Wed Oct 26 2016/
SHORT TERM (Tonight through Thursday Night)...
Upper air analysis this morning showed a ridge from Baja
California to the northern Rockies with northwesterly flow over
Texas. Water vapor satellite imagery showed dry air spreading
from west Texas to the east. At the surface high pressure centered
to the northeast had the winds from the southeast to south across
most of our CWA. Dew point temperatures were generally in the 60s.
During this period, the upper level ridge will shift to the east
keeping the weather dry. Low level flow will continue to be from
the south to southeast. This all means a continuation of the
current pattern with morning low clouds over the eastern half of
the CWA and mostly sunny warm afternoons. Temperatures will
continue above normal.
LONG TERM (Friday through Wednesday)...
The upper level trough will broaden across the southern part of
the country over the weekend. Little change is expected with a
lovely "late summer" weekend coming. Look for dry weather with
above normal temperatures. Monday the upper level ridge will begin
to shift to the east turning the flow to the south to southwest.
This will bring deeper moisture to the region. There will be a
slight chance for precipitation over the eastern half of the CWA
Monday. Tuesday an upper level short wave trough may produce
sufficient lift to produce isolated to scattered showers and
thunderstorms. Isolated convection will be possible again
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Austin Camp Mabry 62 86 63 84 64 / 0 0 0 - 0
Austin Bergstrom Intl Airport 59 86 59 85 61 / 0 0 0 - 0
New Braunfels Muni Airport 60 86 60 85 62 / 0 0 0 - 0
Burnet Muni Airport 60 83 61 83 62 / 0 0 0 0 0
Del Rio Intl Airport 62 85 62 85 64 / 0 0 0 0 0
Georgetown Muni Airport 60 85 61 84 62 / 0 0 0 0 0
Hondo Muni Airport 60 86 61 85 63 / 0 0 0 0 -
San Marcos Muni Airport 61 85 60 84 62 / 0 0 0 10 -
La Grange - Fayette Regional 62 87 62 86 63 / 0 0 0 - -
San Antonio Intl Airport 62 84 62 84 64 / 0 0 - 0 -
Stinson Muni Airport 63 86 63 85 65 / 0 0 - 0 -