Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Austin/San Antonio, TX

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000
FXUS64 KEWX 300849
AFDEWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
349 AM CDT THU JUL 30 2015

.SHORT TERM (TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY)...
HEAT INDICES REMAIN A CONCERN FOR THE NEXT COUPLE DAYS WITH AREAS
ALONG AND SOUTHEAST OF THE ESCARPMENT POSSIBLY REACHING 105 TO 108
DEGREES. SOME RELIEF FROM THE HEAT IS EXPECTED TO BEGIN AS EARLY
AS THIS EVENING...AS AN INFLUX OF MID-LEVEL MOISTURE FROM THE
EAST IS EXPECTED TO BRING AN INCREASED CHANCE OF RAIN AND UPPER
LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE WEAKENS A BIT OVER EAST TX. ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WITH STRONG OUTFLOWS SHOULD FORM OVER EAST
TX WITH A FEW CELLS DEVELOPING GENERALLY ALONG AND EAST OF HIGHWAY
281 LATE TODAY. THE HOT TEMPERATURES AND SLIGHTLY DRIER AIR IN THE
LOWER LEVELS WILL RESULT IN A SUFFICIENT PROFILE FOR A FEW STORMS
TO PRODUCE WIND GUSTS WELL IN EXCESS OF 40 MPH. THE MOISTURE
UNCERTAINTIES REMAIN A CONCERN FOR TODAY SO AM EXPECTING THE
CONVECTION TO HAVE A HARD TIME GETTING ESTABLISHED AND KEEP POPS
AT OR BELOW 20 PERCENT. SURFACE DEW-POINTS ARE ALSO EXPECTED TO
BE A 1-3 DEGREES DRIER THAN FROM THURSDAY AFTERNOON...SO THIS
SLIGHT CHANGE IS EXPECTED TO NUDGE AUS/SAT TO THEIR FIRST 100
DEGREE DAYS OF THE YEAR.

AM NOT EXPECTING ENOUGH DOWNDRAFT ACTIVITY LATE TODAY TO MAKE AN
IMPRESSION ON SURFACE CONDITIONS FOR FRIDAY WHEN THE HEAT INDICES
CLIMB AGAIN. BY FRIDAY AFTERNOON...GFS/NAM BOTH SHOW SIGNIFICANT
IMPROVEMENTS IN PWAT VALUES INTO THE 1.8 TO 2.2 INCH RANGE WHICH
SHOULD BE ENOUGH TO GENERATE SOME STRONG STORMS. UPPER RIDGING
ALOFT CONTINUES TO HEAT TEMPS TO NEAR TRIPLE DIGITS SO WILL
CONTINUE TO NEED MENTION THE HOT CONDITIONS IN THE SPS/HWO. MODEL
FORECAST DCAPES ARE IN THE 1000-1500 J/KG RANGE WHICH COULD BE
SUFFICIENT TO PRODUCE AN ISOLATED SEVERE DOWNDRAFT OR TWO. WILL
MENTION WINDS GUSTS TO AROUND 50 MPH IN THE HWO.

&&

.LONG TERM (FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)...
WHILE THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING MAY BE
MOSTLY IN THE 20-30 PERCENT RANGE FOR MUCH OF SOUTH CENTRAL
TX...THE OUTFLOWS FROM THESE STORMS ARE LIKELY TO COVER MOST OF IF
NOT ALL OF THE AREA. FOR THIS EXPECTATION...WILL KNOCK A FEW
DEGREES OFF SATURDAY MIN TEMPS THAT ARE SHOWN TO BE QUITE WARM ON
THE BLENDED GUIDANCE. LIKEWISE...HIGH TEMPS FOR SATURDAY AND ALSO
SUNDAY ARE SLIGHTLY BELOW THE MOS GUIDANCES FOR THE WEEKEND. MODEL
RUN-TO-RUN TRENDS SHOW AN SLIGHT INCREASE IN MID-LEVEL MOISTURE
AND RAIN CHANCES FOR SUNDAY...WITH THE FAVORED ECMWF TRENDING
TOWARD THE WETTER NAM/DGEX FROM EARLIER RUNS. RAIN CHANCES SUNDAY
ARE MAINLY ACROSS THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF THE EDWARDS PLATEAU AND
HILL COUNTRY. HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS IN PLACE DURING THE
WEEKEND...KEEPING TEMPERATURES HOT DESPITE THE ADDED CLOUD COVER
AND SPOTTY RAINS. THE UPPER HIGH IS EXPECTED TO STRENGTHEN BACK
EASTWARD ACROSS TX BY MONDAY AND SET US UP FOR MORE OPPRESSIVE
HEAT THROUGH NEXT WEEK.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AUSTIN CAMP MABRY             101  78 100  74 100 /  -   20  30  20  20
AUSTIN BERGSTROM INTL AIRPORT 100  74  99  72  99 /  -   20  30  20  20
NEW BRAUNFELS MUNI AIRPORT    100  75 100  74 100 /   0  20  30  20  20
BURNET MUNI AIRPORT            99  76  99  74  98 /   0  20  30  20  20
DEL RIO INTL AIRPORT          102  77 100  76 100 /   0   0  10  20  30
GEORGETOWN MUNI AIRPORT       100  76 101  73  98 /  10  20  30  20  20
HONDO MUNI AIRPORT            100  75  98  74  99 /   0  20  30  20  20
SAN MARCOS MUNI AIRPORT       100  75  98  75  99 /  -   20  30  20  20
LA GRANGE - FAYETTE REGIONAL  100  76  99  75  99 /  20  20  30  20  20
SAN ANTONIO INTL AIRPORT      101  78  99  76  99 /   0  20  30  20  20
STINSON MUNI AIRPORT          101  78 100  75 100 /   0  20  20  20  20

&&

.EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

MESOSCALE/AVIATION...09
SYNOPTIC/GRIDS...OAKS


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