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000
FXUS64 KEWX 021726
AFDEWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
1126 AM CST MON MAR 2 2015

.DISCUSSION...18Z AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.

&&

.AVIATION...OVC CEILINGS RUNNING 300-900 FEET MIDDAY. AUS/SAT/SSF
WILL HOLD AROUND 900 FEET THIS AFTEROON WITH VISIBILITY CURRENTLY
VFR AND EXPECTED TO HOLD VFR. CAN NOT RULE OUT SOME PATCHY LIGHT
DRIZZLE THIS AFTERNOON ALONG THE I-35 CORRIDOR BRIEFLY BRINGING
VISIBILITY DOWN TO MVFR...BUT NOT SHOWN IN THE AUS/SAT/SSF TAFS.
FARTHER WEST...CEILINGS SHOULD IMPROVE TO MVFR THIS AFTERNOON AT
DRT WITH VFR VISIBILITY. TONIGHT...CEILINGS GRADUALLY LOWERING
BELOW 500 FEET 00Z-06Z AT AUS/SAT/SSF AND VISIBILTIES DOWN TO 1
MILE. HI RES MODELS SHOW DENSE FOG DEVELOPING OVER THE HILL
COUNTRY LATE IN THE EVENING...POSSIBLY IMPACTING SAT EARLY TUE
MORNING. PATCHY TO AREAS OF DRIZZLE ALSO WILL OCCUR AS WARMER/MOIST
AIR WITH 30-40 KT LOW LEVEL JET OFF SURFACE OVERRUNS THE
SHALLOW...COLD AIRMASS NEAR THE SURFACE.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 934 AM CST MON MAR 2 2015/

UPDATE...
THE FORECAST HAS BEEN UPDATED TO LOWER HIGH TEMPERATURES SLIGHTLY
ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE I-35 CORRIDOR TODAY. THE LATEST MODELS
CONTINUE TO SHOW NORTHERLY WINDS...CLOUDY SKIES AND LIGHT DRIZZLE
THROUGHOUT MOST OF TODAY. THIS SHOULD KEEP TEMPERATURES IN THE 40S
ACROSS THE MENTIONED AREAS. OTHERWISE...MINOR CHANGES HAVE BEEN
MADE TO THE HOURLY TEMPERATURES...DEW POINTS AND WINDS BASED ON
THE LATEST OBSERVATIONAL TRENDS.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 358 AM CST MON MAR 2 2015/

SHORT TERM (TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY)...
PATCHY DRIZZLE AND AREAS OF FOG WILL BE THE NORM ACROSS THE AREA
THIS MORNING. TEMPERATURES WILL NOT DEVIATE MUCH FROM THE
OVERNIGHT LOWS AS A BLANKET OF LOW LEVEL CLOUDS COVER THE SKY.
SOME MAY GET LUCKY TO SEE LOWER 50S ACROSS THE RIO GRANDE PLAINS
WITH REST OF THE AREA IN THE MID TO UPPER 40S. PATCHY LIGHT
DRIZZLE CONTINUES THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING MAINLY OVER THE EASTERN
HALF OF SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS. BY TUESDAY AFTERNOON...THE MID LEVELS
OF THE ATMOSPHERE DRY OUT SIGNIFICANTLY WITH BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS
AND HIGHS IN THE LOWER 70S. HOWEVER...BIG CHANGES ARE COMING BY
MID WEEK AS STRONG COLD FRONT PUSHES THROUGH THE AREA AND ANOTHER
WINTER PRECIPITATION TYPE EVENT UNFOLDS.

LONG TERM (TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)...
A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL PUSH ACROSS CENTRAL TEXAS LATE TUESDAY
INTO WEDNESDAY AND OVER OUR AREA LATE WEDNESDAY MORNING AND
AFTERNOON. UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT FROM A SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT
SUGGEST THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY AS WELL AS EPISODES OF MODERATE TO
HEAVY RAIN ALONG THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY. MANY AREAS ARE EXPECTED TO
AVERAGE FROM A TENTH TO ONE QUARTER INCH OF RAINFALL WITH ISOLATED
ONE INCH SPOTS. IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT...NORTHERLY BREEZY WINDS
AND GUSTS UP TO 35 MPH ARE EXPECTED WITH TEMPERATURES DROPPING
QUICKLY TO THE LOWER 30S ACROSS THE HILL COUNTRY BEFORE 6 PM WEDNESDAY.
NOW...HERE IS THE BIG CHALLENGE FOR THIS PERIOD AS TEMPERATURES
CONTINUE TO FALL AS RAIN CONTINUES. THERE IS A GOOD CHANCE FOR A
WINTRY MIX OF SNOW/SLEET/FREEZING RAIN WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO
THURSDAY MORNING MAINLY NORTH OF A PANDALE TO BOERNE TO LAKEWAY TO
TAYLOR LINE. MEDIUM RANGE MODELS ARE STILL HAVING SOME
DIFFICULTIES ON HOW DRY OR WET THE MIDDLE LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE
WILL BE FOR THIS PERIOD AND ON WINTER PRECIPITATION TYPE AMOUNTS.
THIS IS A SYSTEM THAT BEARS WATCHING FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS
AND MONITOR OUR WEB PAGE FOR UPDATES.

IT WILL DRY QUICKLY THURSDAY AFTERNOON WITH SLIGHT CHANCES FOR
RAIN ONLY ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST COUNTIES. WILL BE COLD FOR THE
REMAINDER OF THE WEEK WITH TEMPERATURES IMPROVING THE UPCOMING WEEKEND.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AUSTIN CAMP MABRY              44  43  72  52  52 /  20  20  30  30  70
AUSTIN BERGSTROM INTL AIRPORT  45  42  70  53  54 /  20  20  30  20  60
NEW BRAUNFELS MUNI AIRPORT     46  46  72  55  56 /  20  20  20  20  50
BURNET MUNI AIRPORT            43  41  71  50  53 /  20  20  20  30  70
DEL RIO INTL AIRPORT           54  49  74  54  56 /  10  10  -   20  40
GEORGETOWN MUNI AIRPORT        44  42  72  51  55 /  20  20  30  30  70
HONDO MUNI AIRPORT             51  47  71  54  58 /  20  20  20  20  40
SAN MARCOS MUNI AIRPORT        46  45  71  54  55 /  20  20  20  20  60
LA GRANGE - FAYETTE REGIONAL   48  48  72  57  59 /  20  20  30  20  60
SAN ANTONIO INTL AIRPORT       47  47  72  56  58 /  20  20  20  20  50
STINSON MUNI AIRPORT           48  47  72  57  58 /  20  20  20  20  40

&&

.EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

MESOSCALE/AVIATION...76
SYNOPTIC/GRIDS...24