Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Austin/San Antonio, TX

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FXUS64 KEWX 130444 AAC
AFDEWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
1144 PM CDT SAT JUL 12 2014

.AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD CONTINUE THROUGH MOST OF THIS FORECAST
PERIOD. CURRENTLY HAVE SOME MID LEVEL CLOUDS MOVING UP THE RIO
GRANDE AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS MOVING WEST FROM EAST TEXAS. LOOKS
LIKE BEST CHANCE FOR FOG WILL REMAIN ACROSS THE COASTAL PLAINS BUT
DID INCLUDE LIGHT FOG FOR KAUS. NAM IS THE ONLY GUIDANCE STILL
SHOWING ANY CEILINGS OVERNIGHT AT THE I-35 SITES. DECIDED TO PUT
IN TEMPO GROUPS TO COVER ANY CEILINGS THAT DEVELOP. AT MOST WOULD
BE 2 OR 4 HOURS...BUT FEEL THAT MOST OF THE EARLY MORNING WILL BE
SCATTERED OR VARYING BETWEEN SCATTERED AND BROKEN. FOR THE 30 HOUR
LOCATIONS RE-INTRODUCED THE SCATTERED CLOUDS AFTER 08Z ON THE
14TH. WINDS OVERNIGHT WILL RANGE FROM NEAR CALM TO 5 OR 6 KNOTS
THEN PICK BACK UP AFTER 15Z TO 10 TO 15 KNOTS. KDRT WILL SEE GUST
TO NEAR 20 KNOTS FROM 15Z-01Z.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 841 PM CDT SAT JUL 12 2014/

UPDATE...MINOR UPDATE TO ADD MENTION OF PATCHY FOG INTO FORECAST
FOR SOUTHEAST ZONES SOUTH OF I-10 AND EAST OF I-37. 18Z NAM12 AS
WELL AS HI RES ARW/NMM INDICATING FOG POTENTIAL EARLY SUNDAY
MORNING ACROSS THESE COUNTIES...WHERE VERY SHALLOW LAYER OF
MOISTURE IS PLACE...COMBINED WITH DRY AIR ABOVE AND PROXIMITY TO
CENTER OF WEAKER BL WINDS. PATCHY FOG SHOULD QUICKLY BURN OFF MID
MORNING. AN ISOLATED SHOWER OR TWO WILL THEN BE POSSIBLE ACROSS
THE FAR EAST AN SOUTHEAST ZONES SUNDAY AFTERNOON. OTHERWISE...FORECAST
FOR TONIGHT AND SUNDAY IS IN GOOD SHAPE WITH NO ADDITIONAL UPDATES
PLANNED.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 630 PM CDT SAT JUL 12 2014/

AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE. HAD A FEW HOURS OF IFR/MVFR AFTER
07Z THIS MORNING. GUIDANCE IS CURRENTLY NOT SHOWING MUCH...EXCEPT
THE NAM THAT DOES INDICATE IFR/MVFR CIGS OVER MOST OF THE AREA AND
FOG AT KAUS. FORECAST SOUNDINGS LOOK DRIER FOR OVERNIGHT AND
SIMULATED WRF IMAGERY IS NOT SHOWING LOW CLOUD DEVELOPMENT EXCEPT
TO THE SOUTH. WILL LOOK AT THE LATEST FORECAST GUIDANCE THIS
EVENING AND MAY NEED TO MAKE ADJUSTMENTS ON THE 06Z TAF PACKAGE.
S/SE WINDS AT 10 TO 15 KNOTS WILL DECREASE TO 5 TO 10 KNOTS AFTER
02Z. KAUS/KSSF LIKELY TO SEE LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS AFTER 08Z.
WINDS PICK BACK UP TO NEAR 10 KNOTS AFTER 15Z AND 10 TO 15 KNOTS
AT KDRT. I-35 SITES WILL SEE OCCASIONAL GUSTS TO 15 KNOTS AFTER
20Z.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 257 PM CDT SAT JUL 12 2014/

SHORT TERM (TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT)...
TODAY HAS BEEN QUIET WITH MOST CLOUD COVER DISSIPATING THIS
AFTERNOON. TEMPERATURES HAVE CREEPED INTO UPPER 80S AND LOWER 90S
FOR MUCH OF THE AREA. WE SHOULD SEE TEMPERATURES INCREASE ANOTHER
5 DEGREES OR SO THIS AFTERNOON BEFORE DIURNAL COOLING BEGINS. FOR
TONIGHT...CANT RULE OUT ANOTHER NIGHT OF PATCHY FOG IN THE EASTERN
ZONES...BUT SOUNDINGS DO NOT SHOW AS MUCH LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE TO
SUPPORT WIDESPREAD FOG. WILL LEAVE IT OUT OF THE FORECAST FOR
NOW...AND THE EVENING SHIFT MAY NEED TO REVISIT IT.

A WEAK UPPER LOW CAN BE SEEN OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO SOUTHEAST OF
NEW ORLEANS. THIS FEATURE WILL ROTATE WEST OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS
UNDERNEATH AN AMPLIFYING RIDGE. HIGH-RES MODEL GUIDANCE IS
BEGINNING TO SHOW ISOLATED TO SCATTERED ACTIVITY DEVELOPING IN THE
HOUSTON CWA IN THE EARLY AFTERNOON...MOVING INTO OUR EASTERN ZONES
IN THE LATE AFTERNOON. THERE IS ONLY AROUND 1200 J/KG OF CAPE AND
WITH A WEAK CAP IN PLACE...AND AM NOT EXPECTING MUCH ACTIVITY.
HAVE INTRODUCED THE MENTION OF ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS FOR THE
EASTERN ZONES. ALL ACTIVITY SHOULD DISSIPATE AFTER SUNSET WITH THE
LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING.

LONG TERM (MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)...
A PERIOD OF WARMING TEMPERATURES IS EXPECTED FOR THE FIRST COUPLE
OF DAYS NEXT WEEK. 850 TEMPS WILL INCREASE IN RESPONSE TO
PERSISTENT SINKING MOTIONS ASSOCIATED WITH THE RIDGE THAT WILL BE
CENTERED TO OUR WEST. HOWEVER...LOW LEVEL FLOW WILL BE OUT OF THE
SOUTHEAST AND THIS SHOULD HELP US FROM GETTING OPPRESSIVELY HOT.
ALSO DURING THE BEGINNING OF THE WEEK...AN UNSEASONABLY STRONG
TROUGH WILL DIP DOWN INTO THE NORTHEASTERN CONUS. THIS SYNOPTIC
PATTER OF TROUGH TO THE EAST AND RIDGE TO THE WEST WILL PUT THE
CENTRAL PLAINS IN STRONG NORTHWESTERN FLOW. HIGH CLOUDS ASSOCIATED
WITH THIS PATTERN SHOULD BEGIN TO ALLOW HIGH TEMPERATURES TO COOL
SEVERAL DEGREES BY THE WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY.

THE MAIN FOCUS ON EVERYONES MINDS THE PAST COUPLE OF DAYS HAS BEEN
THE POTENTIAL FOR A RARE JULY COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THIS
SYSTEM. 12Z MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN FAIR AGREEMENT THAT A FRONT WILL
DROP INTO NORTH TEXAS TUESDAY AFTERNOON. THERE ARE THEN SOME
DISAGREEMENTS WITH WHAT OCCURS AFTER AND THE ULTIMATE OUTCOME
WILL BE DEPENDENT ON CONVECTION THAT DEVELOPS TUESDAY. ALL MEMBERS
OF GUIDANCE KEEP THE FRONT STALLED NEAR THE DFW METROPLEX WITH
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FOR THAT REGION. THE ECMWF
THEN DEVELOPS A CONVECTIVE OUTFLOW AND SURGES IT SOUTH INTO THE
CWA BY TUESDAY EVENING. IF THIS OCCURRED...THIS OUTFLOW BOUNDARY
WOULD SERVE AS A CATALYST FOR SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT
IN OUR CWA. ALTHOUGH THE MODEL IS SHOWING NORTH WINDS...THIS IS
NOT THE ACTUAL COLD FRONT AND SOUTHERLY FLOW WOULD RETURN SOON.

THE FRONT IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN STALLED TO OUR NORTH AND THEN LIFT
TUESDAY NIGHT. THIS WILL BE IN RESPONSE TO A DISTURBANCE EMBEDDED
IN THE NORTHWEST FLOW MOVING INTO THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. SURFACE
CYCLOGENSIS WILL BE QUICK TO OCCUR ALLOWING SURFACE FLOW TO
INCREASE FROM THE SOUTH. THIS SHOULD KEEP US DRY WEDNESDAY. THE
FRONT SHOULD SLOWLY SAG SOUTHWARD WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY AS
THE UPPER LOW MOVES SOUTH. THERE SHOULD BE A SUBSTANTIAL COVERAGE
OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ALONG AND NORTH OF THE FRONT TO THE
NORTH OF OUR CWA BY THURSDAY MORNING. THIS WILL CONTINUE
THURSDAY...THEN THE FOCUS COULD SHIFT TO OUR CWA THURSDAY NIGHT
AND FRIDAY. IF THE MODELS VERIFY WITH ITS SYNOPTIC FEATURES...THE
ATMOSPHERE WILL BE FAVORABLE FOR A SOUTHWARD MOVING MCS THURSDAY
NIGHT. NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL BE IN PLACE WITH A STRONG
SOUTHERLY LLJ EXPECTED TO BE IN PLACE. THIS WOULD FEED THE SYSTEM
WITH RICH GULF MOISTURE AS IT CONTINUES TO PROPAGATE SOUTH. THE
ECMWF IS SHOWING THIS QUITE WELL AND EVEN HINTS AT SOME BANDING OF
HEAVY PRECIP ASSOCIATED WITH THE FRONT AT 850 MB FRIDAY MORNING IN
THE NORTHERN ZONES. HOWEVER...IT IS MUCH TOO EARLY TO GET INTO
MESOSCALE SPECIFICS AT THIS TIME. THIS IS QUITE AWHILE AWAY AND
THINGS WILL CERTAINLY CHANGE. THE QUESTION WILL BE FOR THE GOOD OR
BAD.

HAMPSHIRE

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AUSTIN CAMP MABRY              73  98  75  98  75 /   0  -   -   -   10
AUSTIN BERGSTROM INTL AIRPORT  70  98  73  97  73 /   0  -   -   -   10
NEW BRAUNFELS MUNI AIRPORT     71  98  72  97  73 /   0  -   -   -   -
BURNET MUNI AIRPORT            71  97  73  97  74 /   0  -   -   -   10
DEL RIO INTL AIRPORT           75  97  75  97  75 /   0  -   -   -   -
GEORGETOWN MUNI AIRPORT        72  98  74  97  74 /   0  -   -   -   10
HONDO MUNI AIRPORT             71  98  71  97  73 /   0  -   -   -   -
SAN MARCOS MUNI AIRPORT        71  96  72  97  73 /   0  -   -   -   -
LA GRANGE - FAYETTE REGIONAL   73  98  74  96  74 /  -   20  -   -   10
SAN ANTONIO INTL AIRPORT       74  96  74  96  74 /   0  -   -   -   -
STINSON MUNI AIRPORT           73  97  74  97  73 /   0  -   -   -   -

&&

.EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

MESOSCALE/AVIATION...10
SYNOPTIC/GRIDS...76
PUBLIC SERVICE/DATA COLLECTION...00




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