989
FXUS64 KEWX 160030
AFDEWX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Austin/San Antonio TX
730 PM CDT Tue Jul 15 2025

...New UPDATE...

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Flood Watch remains in effect until 9 PM tonight for the Hill
  Country and Southern Edwards Plateau.

- Drier conditions for the rest of the week with warmer
  temperatures for the weekend.

&&

.UPDATE...
Issued at 730 PM CDT Tue Jul 15 2025

Heating of an unseasonably moist airmass continues to generate widely
scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms with locally heavy rains
early this evening. The Flood Watch continues until 9 PM for the
threat of additional flooding due to those heavy rains.

Will continue low chances of showers and thunderstorms this evening.
Most models show the showers and thunderstorms dissipating within a
few hours after sunset with loss of heating. However, a few continue
isolated coverage into the overnight and early morning hours. Will
monitor radar trends for possible mention for those time periods.
Remainder of the forecast is on track.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
Issued at 222 PM CDT Tue Jul 15 2025

An unusually moist airmass remains in place this afternoon, and
the weakened upper level disturbance is drifting over Central
Texas. There are isolated showers and thunderstorms over the
western half of the CWA. There is still a possibility of
locally heavy rainfall this afternoon. The Flood Watch remains
in effect until 9 pm for the Southern Edwards Plateau and the
Hill Country. Up to 3 inches of rain are possible in heavier
showers which could lead to quick runoff. Models are showing
drier weather beginning tonight. No rain is forecast for the
rest of the short term period. Drier weather and more sunshine
will lead to warming temperatures Wednesday.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
Issued at 222 PM CDT Tue Jul 15 2025

A mid- to upper-level ridge will build over TX and generally
support an increase in daytime temperatures during the late
week with mostly dry conditions. The upper ridge will continue
to dominate through the long term. The only chance for rain is
Friday over the Coastal Plains along the seabreeze. Otherwise,
there will be a more typical summertime pattern. Temperatures
will warm over the weekend, but only to a little above normal.

One caveat to the long term is the possibility of tropical
development in the northeastern Gulf. At this time, anything
that develops is forecast to move into the central Gulf coast
and not get near TX.

&&

.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 633 PM CDT Tue Jul 15 2025

WDLY SCT SHRA/ISOLD TSRA are ongoing mainly over the Hill Country and
Edwards Plateau to the Rio Grande Plains. They will dissipate this
evening after sunset with loss of heating. No impacts are expected at
the TAF sites. Otherwise, a flying weather pattern more typical of
summer prevails tonight through Wednesday night. VFR skies turn MVFR
overnight into early morning, then mix to VFR by midday. S to SE
winds prevail with breezy/gusty conditions mid morning through the
evening hours.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Austin Camp Mabry              76  96  73  96 /  20   0   0   0
Austin Bergstrom Intl Airport  76  96  73  95 /  10   0   0   0
New Braunfels Muni Airport     75  97  72  96 /  10   0   0   0
Burnet Muni Airport            73  93  71  93 /  20   0   0   0
Del Rio Intl Airport           76  96  75  97 /  20  10   0   0
Georgetown Muni Airport        75  96  72  95 /  20   0   0   0
Hondo Muni Airport             75  96  71  94 /  20   0   0   0
San Marcos Muni Airport        75  97  72  96 /  10   0   0   0
La Grange - Fayette Regional   75  94  73  92 /   0   0   0   0
San Antonio Intl Airport       76  96  74  95 /  20   0   0   0
Stinson Muni Airport           76  99  73  97 /  20   0   0   0

&&

.EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Flood Watch until 9 PM CDT this evening for Bandera-Blanco-Burnet-
Edwards-Gillespie-Kendall-Kerr-Kinney-Llano-Medina-Real-Uvalde.

&&

$$

Short-Term...18
Long-Term...05
Aviation...04