Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Austin/San Antonio, TX

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000
FXUS64 KEWX 241742
AFDEWX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Austin/San Antonio TX
1242 PM CDT WED AUG 24 2016

.UPDATE...
18Z Aviation Update Below.

&&

.AVIATION...
VFR conditions will continue through the afternoon and evening
across South-Central Texas. MVFR ceilings are forecast to
redevelop in stratus overnight, around 06Z-09Z along the I-35
corridor from SAT-AUS and into the Hill Country. A few locations
may see temporarily IFR ceilings. MVFR ceilings may develop into
DRT along the Rio Grande toward daybreak. VFR conditions redevelop
15Z-16Z Thu. S to SE winds this afternoon and evening 8-14 kts
with some occasional gusts around 20 kts possible through the
afternoon.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 645 AM CDT WED AUG 24 2016/

AVIATION.../12Z TAF CYCLE/

As anticipated, cloud ceilings have fallen to MVFR and IFR across
the KSAT/KSSF/KAUS sites this morning with KAUS waffling between
SCT/BKN008. KDRT remains VFR but will likely fall to MVFR over
the next hour. Surface winds are near 5-10 kt. Patchy ground fog
is also ongoing for eastern coastal plains locations between
KSAT/KAUS and KHOU/KCRP.

Clouds will decrease in coverage and increase in altitude through
the mid and late morning hours with VFR prevailing across all
sites by 16-17Z. Surface winds will increase to a sustained 10 kt
and have some periodic gust near 15 kt at KAUS/KSAT/KSSF with 20
kt possible at KDRT this afternoon.

A near repeat of lowering ceilings is expected overnight into
thursday morning with MVFR and IFR ceilings returning.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 609 AM CDT WED AUG 24 2016/

UPDATE...
Patchy fog has developed across parts of the eastern counties.
Have updated to include a mention of fog for the next few hours.
With low clouds across the area to the north, I don`t expect fog
to extend much beyond where it is. Visibility should be generally
three miles or better, but a few spots could go down to a mile.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 306 AM CDT WED AUG 24 2016/

SHORT TERM (Today through Thursday)...
Upper air analysis last evening showed southwesterly flow over
Texas with a ridge to the east and a trough to the west. At the
surface, high pressure over the Gulf was keeping winds from the
southeast. Dew point temperatures were generally two to three
degrees lower than 24 hours ago. In the short term the upper level
ridge over the southeast will build back toward the west and force
the western trough into the middle of the country. The low level
flow will remain from the south to southeast and this may bring
sufficient moisture to our eastern counties to produce isolated
showers and thunderstorms during the afternoon today and tomorrow.

LONG TERM (Thursday Night through Tuesday)...
Friday the upper level ridge will begin to retreat toward the east
and heights will fall a few decameters over Texas. This will
allow rain chances to increase across the east and spread to the
west Friday afternoon. By Saturday a split in the upper level
ridge will settle over the southern plains and this will allow
isolated showers and thunderstorms across our entire CWA each
afternoon and early evening Saturday through Tuesday. Low level
moisture will increase through the period and locally heavy rain
may become possible late in the period over the eastern third of
the forecast area.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Austin Camp Mabry              74  92  73  90  73 /   0  20  20  30  10
Austin Bergstrom Intl Airport  73  91  72  89  72 /   0  20  20  30  10
New Braunfels Muni Airport     72  92  72  91  72 /   0  20  20  30  10
Burnet Muni Airport            72  90  72  90  72 /   0  10  10  30  10
Del Rio Intl Airport           73  94  74  93  74 /   0  10  20  10  -
Georgetown Muni Airport        73  91  73  89  72 /   0  20  10  30  20
Hondo Muni Airport             72  92  72  92  72 /   0  -   10  10  -
San Marcos Muni Airport        73  91  72  90  72 /   0  20  20  30  10
La Grange - Fayette Regional   75  92  74  90  74 /  -   30  20  40  20
San Antonio Intl Airport       74  92  73  91  73 /   0  10  10  20  10
Stinson Muni Airport           74  93  74  92  74 /   0  10  10  20  10

&&

.EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

Mesoscale/Aviation...Runyen
Synoptic/Grids...Treadway
Public Service/Data Collection...Williams



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