Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Austin/San Antonio, TX

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000
FXUS64 KEWX 090519
AFDEWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
1119 PM CST MON FEB 8 2016

.AVIATION...

VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD WITH SCATTERED CIRRUS.
TONIGHT. NW WIND WILL INCREASE AGAIN AT SAT/AUS AFTER 18Z TUE TO
7-10 KTS WITH A FEW GUSTS 14-18 KTS. WEAK SE WIND DEVELOPING AFTER
18Z AT DRT.

&&

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 237 PM CST MON FEB 8 2016/

SHORT TERM (TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT)...

MAIN FOCUS REMAINS ON THE CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS
CURRENTLY ONGOING THIS AFTERNOON ALONG AND EAST OF A LLANO TO SAN
ANTONIO TO PLEASANTON LINE WHERE A RED FLAG WARNING IS IN EFFECT
UNTIL 5PM THIS AFTERNOON.

VERY DRY AIR CHARACTERIZED BY DEWPOINTS IN LOW TEENS TO LOW 20S
IN COMBINATION WITH STRONG VERTICAL BOUNDARY LAYER MIXING HAS
RESULTED IN A HIGH FIRE DANGER ACROSS PORTIONS OF TEXAS ACCORDING
THE TEXAS FOREST SERVICE. WIND GUSTS WILL DECREASE AFTER 5-6PM
AND RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES WILL SLOWLY INCREASE THROUGH THE
EVENING THAT WILL ACT TO DECREASE THE WILDFIRE SPREADIBILITY RISK.
SEE MORE BELOW IN THE FIRE WEATHER DISCUSSION.

FOR TONIGHT AND TUESDAY...EXPECT A COOL MORNING WITH SOME FREEZING
TEMPERATURES LIKELY IN THE HILL COUNTRY WITH SUCH LOW DEWPOINTS IN
PLACE AND DECREASING WINDS. THE REGION WILL BE ON THE CUSP OF A
AMPLIFIED RIDGE/TROUGH PATTERN ACROSS THE CONUS WITH SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE OVER TEXAS SETTLING IN ON TUESDAY. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR A
NICE WARM UP AND CALMER WINDS AS HIGHS REACH INTO THE UPPER 60S
AND EVEN LOWER 70S. THESE READINGS WILL BE AROUND 5F DEGREES ABOVE
NORMAL.

LONG TERM (WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY)...

THE WARMING AND CONTINUED DRY TREND CONTINUES INTO MID AND LATE
WEEK AS LOW-LEVEL WINDS SHIFT BACK TO THE SOUTH AND SOUTHWEST.
MUCH ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES (+10-15F) APPEAR LIKELY WED-FRI
WITH A COOL DOWN INTO THE WEEKEND.

LITTLE DAY TO DAY VARIATION IS EXPECTED WEDNESDAY INTO FRIDAY AS
THE TROUGH OVER THE EAST SLOWLY SHIFTS OFF THE COAST WITH A
PERSISTENT RIDGE OVER THE WESTERN CONUS. TEXAS WILL BE IN THE
DOLDRUMS OF ANY STRONGER JETSTREAK ENERGY OR MOISUTRE INFLUX TILL
THURSDAY AT THE EARLIEST. THIS WILL LEAD TO A MODIFYING AIRMASS
AND ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO REACH INTO THE MID AND UPPER 70S. SOME
LOCAL 80S COULD BE POSSIBLE IN THE RIO GRANDE PLAINS THURSDAY.

ADDITIONAL CLOUDS ARE EXPECTED FRIDAY AND INTO THE WEEKEND THAT
SHOULD HELP REDUCE TEMPERATURES SOMEWHAT BUT OVERALL WARM
TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN. GLOBAL MODELS SUGGEST THAT SOME VERY
LOW-END PRECIPITATION CHANCES COULD OCCUR SUNDAY INTO MONDAY AS
PWATS INCREASE UPWARDS OF 1". HAVE LEFT FORECAST DRY FOR NOW AS
MID-LEVEL RIDGING WILL STILL BE IN PLACE SUNDAY WITH A SLIGHT
BREAK DOWN MONDAY. A COLD FRONT IS BEING ADVERTISED TO APPROACH
THE REGION MONDAY OR TUESDAY AND THIS TIMING WILL NEED TO BE
WATCHED FOR INCLUSION OF HIGHER RAIN CHANCES.

FIRE WEATHER...

RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES ARE AT OR BELOW 20 PERCENT ACROSS THE
REGION AS OF 230PM. THESE LOW HUMIDITIES IN COMBINATION WITH
GUSTY NORTH WINDS OF 15-20 MPH IS CREATING CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER
CONDITIONS. ELEVATED AND NEAR-CRITICAL FORE CONDITIONS ARE ALSO
ONGOING ACROSS WESTERN AND RIO GRANDE PLAINS LOCATIONS THIS
AFTERNOON WHERE WINDS ARE SLIGHTLY LOWER. ANY BURNING OF ANY KIND
IS HIGHLY DISCOURAGED AS THE FIRE DANGER ACCORDING TO THE TEXAS
FOREST SERVICE IS HIGH TODAY. WINDS WILL SLOWLY DECREASE LATE
AFTERNOON INTO EARLY EVENING WITH HUMIDITY VALUES SLOWLY
INCREASING AT THE SAME TIME.

THE CONTINUED PATTERN OF LOW HUMIDITY VALUES WILL CONTINUE AGAIN
TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY BUT THE WINDS WILL BE MUCH LOWER AND THUS
NOT FULLY CRITICAL. HOWEVER...WITH FUELS BECOMING DRY AND AN
EXPECTED WARMING TREND...THE FIRE RISK WILL REMAIN ELEVATED GIVEN
ANY SOURCE OF POSSIBLE IGNITION. NO WIDESPREAD RAIN CHANCES ARE
EXPECTED THROUGH THE NEXT WEEK WITH ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES
ANTICIPATED.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AUSTIN CAMP MABRY              38  69  41  74  49 /   0   0   0   0   0
AUSTIN BERGSTROM INTL AIRPORT  34  69  35  73  44 /   0   0   0   0   0
NEW BRAUNFELS MUNI AIRPORT     36  70  38  75  45 /   0   0   0   0   0
BURNET MUNI AIRPORT            34  67  38  73  46 /   0   0   0   0   0
DEL RIO INTL AIRPORT           36  73  41  79  45 /   0   0   0   0   0
GEORGETOWN MUNI AIRPORT        35  67  37  72  46 /   0   0   0   0   0
HONDO MUNI AIRPORT             33  72  37  77  42 /   0   0   0   0   0
SAN MARCOS MUNI AIRPORT        35  69  37  74  45 /   0   0   0   0   0
LA GRANGE - FAYETTE REGIONAL   36  67  39  71  47 /   0   0   0   0   0
SAN ANTONIO INTL AIRPORT       38  71  40  75  47 /   0   0   0   0   0
STINSON MUNI AIRPORT           38  72  40  76  45 /   0   0   0   0   0

&&

.EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

MESOSCALE/AVIATION...RUNYEN
SYNOPTIC/GRIDS...05


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