Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Austin/San Antonio, TX

Home | Current Version | Previous Version | Text Only | Print | Product List | Glossary On
Versions: 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44 45 46 47 48 49 50
000
FXUS64 KEWX 220555
AFDEWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
1155 PM CST SUN DEC 21 2014

.UPDATE...06Z AVIATION BELOW.

&&

.AVIATION...AT 05Z IFR CEILINGS PREVAILED ALONG AND SOUTHWEST OF
A ERV-SAT-VCT LINE. EXCEPTION WAS SKC OUT AT DRT...BUT THIS
SHOULD FILL IN OVER THE NEXT HOUR OR TWO. NORTHEAST OF THIS LINE
MVFR CEILINGS PREVAILED. SHALLOW MOISTURE WILL REMAIN TRAPPED
BENEATH INVERSION OVERNIGHT...WITH SATURATION AND CLOUD DECK
LOWERING EARLY IN THE MORNING. LOOKING MORE LIKELY FOR MIX OF
IFR/LIFR CONDITIONS ACROSS SOUTHERN AND WESTERN AREAS...AND
CONTINUED TO INDICATE THIS AT SAT/SSF/DRT. IN ADDITION...PATCHY
-DZ OCCURING OVERNIGHT ALONG THE I-35 CORRIDOR. WESTERLY LOW
LEVEL FLOW WILL DEVELOP ALONG THE I-35 CORRIDOR 15Z-18Z WITH
PASSAGE OF LOW LEVEL TROUGH...WITH NORTHWEST FLOW OVER THE RIO
GRANDE AND HILL COUNTRY. THIS SHOULD RESULT IN BETTER MIXING AND
CLEARING ALONG AND WEST OF I-35 MID TO LATE MORNING...AND
EVENTUALLY VFR CONDITIONS AT ALL TAF SITES.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1131 PM CST SUN DEC 21 2014/

UPDATE...
UPDATED TO INCLUDE DRIZZLE MENTION THROUGH 09Z FOR I35 CORRIDOR
AND EAST DUE TO LATEST OBS. FOG IS BEGINNING TO SET IN ALONG THE
SOUTHERN RIO GRANDE VALLEY AND UP TO THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF THE
ESCARPMENT. THIS IS ON TRACK WITH THE EVOLUTION DEPICTED IN THE
MODELS SO CONFIDENCE HAS INCREASED IN THE CURRENT FORECAST.

HIGH CLOUDS ARE MOVING IN FROM THE NORTHWEST IN ADDITION TO THE
LOW CEILING DEVELOPMENT SPREADING BACK WEST TOWARDS KDRT. SEEING
WINDS JUST NORTH OF THE CWA AT 15-20 MPH SUSTAINED WITH GUSTS UP
TO 25 MPH IN RESPONSE TO A TIGHTENING PRESSURE GRADIENT. FOR
NOW...THE FORECAST STILL LOOKS PRETTY GOOD FOR THE WINDS BUT IF
THEY CONTINUE TO INCREASE...MAY NEED TO UPDATE AGAIN TO ACCOUNT
FOR THIS.

TB3

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 737 PM CST SUN DEC 21 2014/

UPDATE...
LATEST IR SATELLITE SHOWS LOW LEVEL CLOUD DECK DETERIORATING WEST
OF I35 CORRIDOR. KDRT SHOWING SOME LIGHT FOG ALREADY AT 01Z.
BOTH RUC AND HRRR INDICATE ZERO DEGREE DEWPOINT DEPRESSIONS ALONG
THE RIO GRANDE UP TO KDRT AND UP ONTO THE ESCARPMENT BEGINNING
AROUND 06Z. WITH A TIGHTENING SFC GRADIENT OVER OUR WEST AND
RESULTANT WINDS IN THE 10-15 MPH RANGE ALREADY...DONT THINK FOG
WILL BE ABLE TO SET IN ON THE ESCARPMENT MUCH...HOWEVER INCLUDED
AREAS OF FOG ALONG THE RIO GRANDE VALLEY AND SOUTH OF THE
ESCARPMENT BY 09Z. ALSO UPDATED SKY GRIDS...HOURLY T...AND HOURLY
DEW T GRIDS TO CAPTURE LATEST TRENDS.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 339 PM CST SUN DEC 21 2014/

SHORT TERM (TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT)...
CLEARING HAS BEEN VERY STUBBORN THIS AFTERNOON BUT AREAS OUT WEST
AND SOUTHWEST ARE FINALLY STARTING TO SHOW SOME SUNSHINE. UPPER
TROF AXIS IS OVER THE STATE RIGHT NOW WITH MORE CLOUDINESS AND
MOISTURE UPSTREAM OVER THE ROCKIES. MOST AREAS WILL CLOUD BACK UP
OVERNIGHT AND HAVE MENTIONED SOME PATCHY FOG OVER SOUTHERN AREAS.
AREAS THAT CLEAR THIS EVENING WILL HAVE A BETTER CHANCE OF GETTING
THE FOG.  LOW AND MID LEVEL WIND FIELDS WILL HAVE A WESTERLY
COMPONENT ON MONDAY MEANING WARMER TEMPERATURES AND MORE SUNSHINE.
MOST AREAS SHOULD REACH INTO THE 70S. SHOULD BE A VERY PLEASANT
DAY. ALTHOUGH WE LOSE THE LOW CLOUDS TOMORROW NIGHT WE WILL STILL
HAVE SOME MID AND HIGH CLOUDS AROUND WITH THE UPSTREAM SYSTEM OVER
THE ROCKIES. LOWS MONDAY NIGHT EXPECTED TO BE IN THE 40S TO LOW
50S.

LONG TERM (TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)...
WILL SEE A COLD FRONT PUSH THROUGH THE CWA EARLY TUE MORNING WHILE A
DEEP TROF DEVELOPS OVER THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN PLAINS. AN UPPER
WAVE WILL PUSH SE OUT OF THE ROCKIES ON TUE WITH SOME OF ITS
ENERGY STAYING OVER SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS EARLY WED. WITH THE COLD
FRONT AND UPPER LEVEL TROFFING...LOOKS LIKE TUE WILL BE MOSTLY
CLOUDY AND COOLER. 700 MB TROF AXIS SHIFTS EAST LATE TUE NIGHT
WHICH SHOULD MEAN A CLEARING PATTERN ON WED ALTHOUGH TEMPS WILL
REMAIN COOL AS THE SURFACE HIGH REMAINS OVER WEST TEXAS AND THE
ROCKIES. THE UPPER PATTERN FLATTENS AS TEXAS IS AT THE BASE OF A
LONG WAVE TROFFING PATTERN ACROSS MOST OF THE COUNTRY BY MID WEEK.
MOISTURE LEVELS WILL REMAIN LOW FOR THU AND FRI WHICH WILL
TRANSLATE TO MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES...COOL/COLD NIGHTS...AND COOL
AFTERNOON HIGHS IN THE 60S. WILL SEE A RETURN OF MORNING LOWS IN
THE 30S MIDDLE TO THE END OF THE WEEK. ANOTHER COLD FRONT IS
FORECAST FOR FRIDAY BUT SHOULD COME THROUGH DRY AS THERE WILL BE
LITTLE TO NO MOISTURE TO WORK WITH.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AUSTIN CAMP MABRY              52  71  48  57  38 /  10  -   10  20  -
AUSTIN BERGSTROM INTL AIRPORT  51  71  47  57  37 /  10  -   10  20  -
NEW BRAUNFELS MUNI AIRPORT     50  72  49  58  38 /  10  -   10  10  -
BURNET MUNI AIRPORT            48  70  45  54  36 /  10  -   10  20  -
DEL RIO INTL AIRPORT           43  75  48  59  37 /  10  -   10  10  -
GEORGETOWN MUNI AIRPORT        50  70  46  55  36 /  10  -   10  20  -
HONDO MUNI AIRPORT             48  73  46  61  34 /  10  -   10  10  -
SAN MARCOS MUNI AIRPORT        51  72  47  57  36 /  10  -   10  10  -
LA GRANGE - FAYETTE REGIONAL   52  72  51  56  39 /  10  -   10  20  -
SAN ANTONIO INTL AIRPORT       52  73  49  59  38 /  10  -   10  10  -
STINSON MUNI AIRPORT           51  72  50  60  38 /  10  -   10  10  -

&&

.EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

MESOSCALE/AVIATION...76
SYNOPTIC/GRIDS...03





USA.gov is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.