Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Austin/San Antonio, TX

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000
FXUS64 KEWX 252031
AFDEWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
331 PM CDT FRI JUL 25 2014

.SHORT TERM (TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT)...
RECENT MESOSCALE MODEL RUNS STILL SHOW HINTS OF CONVECTION OVER
THE SOUTHERN RIO GRANDE PLAINS THIS AFTERNOON INTO EARLY
EVENING...BUT CHANCES ARE LOW SO WE ONLY KEPT ISOLATED EARLY
EVENING WORDING IN THE TEXT FORECASTS. ANY STORMS THAT DEVELOP
SHOULD DISSIPATE BY 02Z. OTHERWISE...THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE BUILDS
EAST ACROSS TEXAS AND NORTHWEST ACROSS THE ROCKIES...SO EXPECT HOT
AND DRY CONDITIONS ON SATURDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM (SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)...
THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE MAINTAINS A STRONG INFLUENCE ACROSS TEXAS
THROUGH TUESDAY. HEIGHT/THICKNESS VALUES SUPPORT SLIGHTLY ABOVE
NORMAL TEMPERATURES. THE COMBINATION OF HEAT AND INCREASING DEW
POINT WILL PRODUCE HEAT INDEX VALUES OF 100-107 FOR A FEW HOURS
EACH AFTERNOON ACROSS THE COASTAL PLAINS. WE WILL HIGHLIGHT THIS
IN THE HWO AND ISSUE AN SPS...BUT IN REALITY IT/S REALLY NOT MUCH
HOTTER THAN TYPICAL CONDITIONS FOR LATE JULY.

A DEEP UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE GREAT LAKES...THE RIDGE OVER
THE ROCKIES...AND A TROUGH ALONG THE PACIFIC COAST WILL FORM AN
OMEGA BLOCKING PATTERN NEXT WEEK. THIS WILL RESULT IN AN UNSEASONABLY
COOL AIR MASS FOR THE EASTERN HALF OF THE COUNTRY...INCLUDING TEXAS.
MEDIUM RANGE MODELS HAVE BEEN CONSISTENT IN PUSHING A MAIN COLD
FRONT AND POTENTIALLY MINOR OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES THROUGH MOST OF
TEXAS. ISENTROPIC LIFT AND MOIST AIR POOLING ALONG THESE
BOUNDARIES (PW APPROACHING 2.4 INCHES) WILL CREATE AN FAVORABLE
ENVIRONMENT FOR AT LEAST SCATTERED STORM COVERAGE...AND POTENTIALLY
HEAVY RAIN. EXTENSIVE CLOUDCOVER AND RAIN MAY KEEP HIGH
TEMPERATURES WELL BELOW NORMAL. DUE TO UNCERTAINTY IN SPECIFIC
PLACEMENT OF FEATURES...WE WILL START THE TREND TO INCREASE POPS
AND QPF...AND DECREASE HIGH TEMPS...FOR THURSDAY AND FRIDAY.
EXPECT ADDITIONAL ADJUSTMENTS AS MODEL GUIDANCE AND OBSERVATIONS
CLARIFY EXPECTATIONS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AUSTIN CAMP MABRY              75  98  75  98  74 /  -   -   -   -   -
AUSTIN BERGSTROM INTL AIRPORT  73  98  74  98  72 /  -   -   -   -   -
NEW BRAUNFELS MUNI AIRPORT     73  97  73  97  72 /  -   -   -   -   -
BURNET MUNI AIRPORT            73  97  73  97  73 /  -   -   -   -   -
DEL RIO INTL AIRPORT           78 100  79 100  78 /  20  -   -   -   -
GEORGETOWN MUNI AIRPORT        74  97  74  98  74 /  -   -   -   -   -
HONDO MUNI AIRPORT             73  98  73  98  72 /  20  -   -   -   -
SAN MARCOS MUNI AIRPORT        73  98  74  98  72 /  -   -   -   -   -
LA GRANGE - FAYETTE REGIONAL   76  96  77  96  75 /  -   -   -   -   -
SAN ANTONIO INTL AIRPORT       76  97  75  97  75 /  -   -   -   -   -
STINSON MUNI AIRPORT           75  98  74  98  74 /  -   -   -   -   -

&&

.EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

MESOSCALE/AVIATION...76
SYNOPTIC/GRIDS...26
PUBLIC SERVICE/DATA COLLECTION...00





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