Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Dallas/Fort Worth, TX

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FXUS64 KFWD 220930
AFDFWD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
330 AM CST MON DEC 22 2014

.DISCUSSION...
WHEN ARE WE GONNA SEE THE SUN? THAT HAS BEEN ONE OF OUR MOST ASKED
QUESTIONS LATELY...AND I THINK IT WILL BE TODAY. SOUTHWEST
DOWNSLOPE FLOW HAS ALREADY ERODED THE LOW CLOUDS AS FAR EAST AS
FORT WORTH AND ALL AREAS SHOULD BE PARTLY TO MOSTLY SUNNY BY MID
AFTERNOON...WITH ONLY MID-HIGH CLOUDS TO PARTIALLY BLOCK THE SUN.
WINDS WILL VEER WESTWARD AND THEN NORTHWEST TODAY AS A COLD FRONT
PUSHES INTO THE AREA.

CLOUDS WILL INCREASE OVERNIGHT AS AN UPPER TROUGH FOLLOWS THE
FRONT. WE ARE EXPECTING A DECENT COVERAGE OF LIGHT RAIN...BUT
PRECIP WILL BE LIGHT AND QPF CONSEQUENTLY LOW. TUESDAY MORNING...A
FEW MODELS ARE HINTING THAT IT MAY GET COLD ENOUGH ALOFT TO MAKE A
FEW FLURRIES IN WESTERN/NORTHWESTERN COUNTIES. THERE IS QUITE A
BIT OF DRY AIR BELOW 5000 FT...AND THE MID LAYERS ARE DRYING AS
WELL SO THE CHANCE OF ANY FLURRIES SEEMS LOW. HAVE NOT ADDED THEM
TO THE WEATHER GRIDS SINCE IF THEY OCCUR THEY WILL NOT ACCUMULATE
WITH TEMPERATURES ABOVE FREEZING...BUT THEY MAY PROVIDE VISUAL
INTEREST IN THE AFOREMENTIONED AREAS.

WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY MORNINGS WILL BE COOL...WITH THE NORTHWEST
TWO THIRDS OF NORTH/CENTRAL TX POSSIBLY DROPPING TO OR JUST BELOW
32. GUSTY SOUTH WINDS ON THURSDAY PLUS SUN AND DRY AIR WILL
PROVIDE A RAPID WARM UP AND HIGHS SHOULD BE IN THE 60S. THE DRY
AIR AND GUSTY WINDS WILL ELEVATE FIRE WEATHER DANGER
CONDITIONS...SO OUTDOOR BURNING SHOULD POSSIBLY BE DELAYED FOR
ANOTHER DAY.

THE FRIDAY COLD FRONT WILL PRODUCE HIGHS BELOW NORMAL FOR
SATURDAY...AND NEAR NORMAL FOR SUNDAY/MONDAY. THE ECMWF DOES BRING
A STRONGER TROUGH ACROSS ON SATURDAY...AND IF THIS FEATURE
CONTINUES IN FUTURE RUNS...PRECIP CHANCES WILL INCREASE. OF
INTEREST IN THE EXTENDED IS A CUTOFF LOW IN THE SOUTHWEST U.S. ON
DAY 10 THAT COULD BRING MULTIPLE CHANCES AT PRECIP NEXT WEEK. 84

&&

.AVIATION...
/ISSUED 1127 PM CST SUN DEC 21 2014/
CHALLENGES INCLUDE HOW LONG LOW MVFR CIGS PERSIST ON MONDAY
MORNING...TIMING OF WIND SHIFT AND CLEARING AFTER SUNRISE...THEN
TIMING THE ARRIVAL OF A PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH AND COLD FRONT LATER IN
THE DAY.

THE EASTERN TWO THIRDS OF THE METROPLEX CONTINUE UNDER A CANOPY
OF MVFR STRATUS MOSTLY BELOW 2 KFT AND A BROKEN CIRRUS CANOPY
ALOFT ASSOCIATED WITH A SHORTWAVE DISTURBANCE. WE WILL MAINTAIN
THE STRATUS CANOPY THROUGH MID MORNING MONDAY...BEFORE VEERING LOW
LEVEL FLOW HELPS CLEAR OUT THE LOW LEVELS WITH BROKEN CIRRUS AND
VFR CONDITIONS.

SOUTH WINDS 10-15 KTS WILL BECOME SOUTHWEST BY MID MORNING...THEN
INCREASE FROM THE WEST AROUND 15 KTS BY MIDDAY WHICH MAY CAUSE
BRIEF CROSSWIND ISSUES ON NORTH-SOUTH RUNWAYS. THE COLD FRONT
WILL ARRIVE BY 21Z WITH NW WINDS 15-20 KTS THAT ARE EXPECTED TO
DECOUPLE BELOW 10 KTS AFTER NIGHTFALL MONDAY EVENING.

05/


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DALLAS-FT. WORTH, TX  64  45  53  36  49 /   5  10  30   5   0
WACO, TX              68  45  54  36  52 /   5  10  30   5   0
PARIS, TX             61  43  53  35  46 /  10  10  40  10   0
DENTON, TX            63  42  53  35  48 /   5  10  30   5   0
MCKINNEY, TX          63  43  52  35  48 /   5  10  30   5   0
DALLAS, TX            64  46  53  37  49 /   5  10  30   5   0
TERRELL, TX           64  46  54  36  48 /   5  10  30   5   0
CORSICANA, TX         67  47  54  36  50 /   5  10  30   5   0
TEMPLE, TX            69  46  54  35  52 /   5  10  30   5   0
MINERAL WELLS, TX     64  41  51  33  50 /   5  30  30   0   0

&&

.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

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