Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Dallas/Fort Worth, TX

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FXUS64 KFWD 230427 AAB
AFDFWD

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Fort Worth TX
1127 PM CDT Sun Oct 22 2017


.AVIATION...
VFR conditions will prevail through 12z Tuesday. A surface high
that is currently centered southwest of KBWD at 04z Monday will
sink south southeastward into the northwestern Gulf of Mexico
during the next 24 hours. Meanwhile, another cold front will move
down the Plains in the northwesterly flow aloft. Light northwest
winds will become southwest at around 8 knots overnight tonight.
As the cold front moves through the Metroplex and Waco late
afternoon, winds will shift back around to the northwest and then
north at around 12 to 14 knots.

58

&&


.SHORT TERM... /Issued 258 PM CDT Sun Oct 22 2017/
/Through Tonight/

Drier and cooler air is filtering into the region following last
night`s cold frontal passage. While moisture/clouds took a bit
longer to scour out than expected today, clear skies are now
prevailing across most of the region and temperatures have climbed
into the 70s. Overnight, the strong 1024mb surface high located
to our northwest will continue to sink southward, leading to
decreasing north winds. With clear skies, light winds, and dry air
in place overnight, very efficient radiational cooling should
take place. Lows will be around 50 in urban locations and as low
as the upper 30s in rural outlying areas. Given the recent
rainfall, some shallow ground fog could develop in low-lying
areas early Monday morning. With moisture otherwise being very
limited, no dense fog is expected and no mention has been included
in the worded forecast.

-Stalley

&&

.LONG TERM... /Issued 258 PM CDT Sun Oct 22 2017/
/Monday through Sunday/

Most of the upcoming week will be dominated by northerly flow
aloft featuring a couple of cold fronts and generally quiet
weather. An amplifying ridge over the western U.S. will help send
a strong shortwave southward through the Plains on Monday. This
will allow a reinforcing cold front to move through North Texas by
Monday evening. Tuesday will be a cool and breezy day with
northwest winds 15 to 25 mph and high temperatures in the lower
70s. The drier air and breezy conditions could lead to some
elevated fire weather conditions, especially in areas that have
plentiful dry fine fuels despite recent rainfall. Minimum humidity
values will drop to 15 to 20% on Tuesday afternoon.

We`ll see a brief warmup Wednesday and Thursday as the main trough
to the east pulls away and southwest flow aloft returns. This will
be short lived though as another strong upper trough digs into the
central U.S. As it does, a strong cold front will slide south into
the southern Plains. There continues to be some spread in the
guidance with respect to the evolution of the upper trough
associated with this front. The ECMWF and to some extent several
of the GFS ensemble members keep a strong piece of upper energy
farther west over the 4-corners region. This allows more moisture
to be pulled northward into Texas and results in a slower
southward progression of the front along with slightly better rain
chances late Friday into Saturday. For now, we`ll keep with
generally low rain chances Friday into Saturday. The front should
blast through during the day Friday with isentropic ascent
persisting atop the cooler air well into Saturday. Highs on
Saturday may struggle to get out of the 50s.

Dunn

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Dallas-Ft. Worth    50  81  53  72  46 /   0   0   0   0   0
Waco                44  81  51  74  44 /   0   0   0   0   0
Paris               44  77  49  68  42 /   0   0   0   0   0
Denton              43  81  50  71  43 /   0   0   0   0   0
McKinney            43  79  51  70  43 /   0   0   0   0   0
Dallas              52  81  53  72  48 /   0   0   0   0   0
Terrell             45  81  50  72  43 /   0   0   0   0   0
Corsicana           46  79  51  72  44 /   0   0   0   0   0
Temple              43  81  51  75  45 /   0   0   0   0   0
Mineral Wells       42  82  48  71  42 /   0   0   0   0   0

&&

.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

58/24



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