Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Dallas/Fort Worth, TX

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FXUS64 KFWD 242300
AFDFWD

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Fort Worth TX
600 PM CDT Wed May 24 2017

.AVIATION...
A deep upper low continues to work its way across the eastern
third of the CONUS, with the associated convection well east of
North and Central Texas. For the rest of the Nation, a split flow
regime remains in place with a broad ridge across the Southwest
and Southern Plains, and an upper trough over the Pacific
Northwest. The ridge will provide generally quiet weather for the
area. The upper trough and its associated lee-side surface trough
will create a quick return to south winds tonight. A 40+ kt low
level jet will develop after midnight, but there should be too
much of a southwesterly component for any appreciable stratus
return. Surface winds will increase to 15-20 KT late Thursday
morning as the surface gradient tightens with gusts 25 to 30 kt
by afternoon. Breezy conditions will persist into Thursday night,
and stratus should overspread the area by Friday morning. The
stratus return would be beyond the current TAF set, so all
forecasts remain VFR for their entirety.

30

&&


.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 354 PM CDT Wed May 24 2017/
It was a remarkably chilly morning across North and Central Texas
with some locations across the north and west dipping into the
40s. Graham Municipal Airport bottomed out at 44F, the coldest
temperature on record for Graham this late in the season (set
previously in the city on May 27, 1961 and May 30, 1947).
Neither DFW (58F) nor Waco (53F) set a record low for the date
though Waco did tie the record for May 23 just before midnight
CST last night.

Even with a persistent northwest wind today, abundant sunshine
and unseasonably dry air allowed afternoon temperatures to reach
the 70s and lower 80s regionwide. The axis of this mild surface
high will move east across the region this evening, and south
winds will be in place by midnight. Lee troughing will increase
the wind speeds, and gusty south winds will prevail throughout the
day Thursday, steadily returning Gulf moisture to the region.

A dryline will develop across West Texas on Thursday, making more
significant progress to the east on Friday. It should invade our
far western zones early in the afternoon, and the drying/downslope
winds behind the boundary will push the mercury to near 100F in
Olney, Graham, and Breckenridge. A strong capping inversion east
of the dryline will preclude any convection. The cap will also
prevent deep mixing, and with persistent south winds pumping Gulf
moisture into the region, dew points will likely remain above 70F
at peak heating. With temperatures in the 90s, heat index values
will likely exceed 100F for the first time this year. After
multiple periods of mild weather this month, this will feel
remarkably hot and humid.

The dryline will make a similar surge on Saturday, and although
the bulk of the region will remain capped, approaching lift may
weaken it just enough to allow for some late afternoon convection
in vicinity of the boundary. Any storms that develop could become
severe. Better (and more widespread) chances will accompany a
cold front Saturday night into Sunday. With southwesterly flow
aloft dominating much of Texas and a subtropical ridge nosing into
the Gulf of Mexico, the front will fail to clear the coast. This
is not a scenario that lends itself to good inter-model agreement,
but guidance now consistently keeps the boundary south of the CWA
Sunday and Monday. Redevelopment near the front on Sunday will be
primarily across South Texas, but some activity may occur above
the frontal slope across our southern zones, not unlike what we
saw Tuesday afternoon.

With the front to the south, areas along and north of the I-20
corridor should see pleasant weather Sunday with milder
temperatures and lower humidity. The pleasant weather will expand
southward on Memorial Day with only our far southern zones still
being bothered by clouds and rain chances. The north-south
gradient between nice and inclement weather may be pretty narrow,
and this forecast will hang on the eventual position of the front.
Those with outdoor plans for the weekend should keep abreast of
the weather as there will be the potential for storms Saturday
through Monday.

25

&&



.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Dallas-Ft. Worth    60  91  74  94  76 /   0   0   0   0   5
Waco                58  90  74  93  77 /   0   0   0   0   5
Paris               54  85  70  89  74 /   0   0   0   0   5
Denton              57  90  73  94  75 /   0   0   0   0   5
McKinney            56  88  72  92  75 /   0   0   0   0   5
Dallas              61  91  75  94  77 /   0   0   0   0   5
Terrell             56  87  73  92  76 /   0   0   0   0   5
Corsicana           58  88  72  91  76 /   0   0   0   0   5
Temple              58  90  73  92  76 /   0   0   0   5   5
Mineral Wells       56  95  71  98  73 /   0   0   0   0   5

&&

.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

30/91


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