Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Dallas/Fort Worth, TX

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000
FXUS64 KFWD 300349 AAC
AFDFWD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
1049 PM CDT TUE JUL 29 2014

.UPDATE...
ISENTROPIC LIFT NOW OCCURRING BETWEEN 850-700 MB ACROSS NORTHWEST
TEXAS AND WESTERN OKLAHOMA AHEAD OF THE EXPECTED SHORTWAVE EMBEDDED
IN WEAK NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT. LAPSE RATES ALOFT ARE NOT OVERLY
STEEP...BUT SOME ISOLATED THUNDER MAY OCCUR NORTHWEST OF A
BRECKENRIDGE...DECATUR...SHERMAN LINE OVERNIGHT.

LITTLE RAINFALL IS ACTUALLY HITTING THE GROUND PER SURFACE OBS
ACROSS WESTERN OK/NORTHWEST TX...BUT EARLIER RAINFALL DID MOISTEN
LOW LEVELS BELOW 700MB EARLIER TODAY. EVEN SO...HAVE ONLY RAISED
TO 30-40% WITH MAINLY SHOWER WORDING WITH AN OCCASIONAL LIGHTNING
STRIKES ACROSS THE NORTHWEST. RAINFALL IS EXPECTED TO BE RELATIVELY
LIGHT. DID SHIFT SLIGHT CHANCES AS FAR SOUTHEAST AS A CISCO...TO
DFW...TO BONHAM LINE. OTHERWISE...NO CHANGES.

05/

&&

.AVIATION...
/ISSUED 627 PM CDT TUE JUL 29 2014/
A STATIONARY FRONT EXTENDS FROM SE NM TO SOUTH OF KAUS AND THEN TO
NEAR KBYY /BAY CITY/ ON THE UPPER TEXAS COAST. THE FRONT WILL MOVE
NORTH LATE TONIGHT BUT SHOULD REMAIN SOUTH OF THE METROPLEX ON
THURSDAY. MORE UPSTREAM /TX-OK PANHANDLE/ CONVECTION IS EXPECTED
OVERNIGHT AND SOME OF THIS MAY BE ABLE TO MOVE SOUTH OF THE RED
RIVER AS ELEVATED SHRA MID WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH MIDDAY...THEN
AS VCTS OR ISOLATED TSRA LATE WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH EARLY
THURSDAY EVENING. THUS WILL INCLUDE VCSH AND VCTS FOR THE
METROPLEX TAF SITES ON WEDNESDAY.

OTHERWISE...ALL TERMINALS WILL BE VFR WITH MID TO UPPER LEVEL
CIGS. WINDS SHOULD BE 10 KNOTS OR LESS THROUGH TONIGHT...THEN
9-14 KNOTS ON THURSDAY. WIND DIRECTION WILL BE PROBLEMATIC THIS
EVENING...BUT THE PRESSURE GRADIENT JUSTIFIES AN EAST TO SOUTHEAST
COMPONENT OVERNIGHT. TOMORROW...WINDS WILL BECOME MORE
SOUTHEASTERLY AS THE FRONT MOVES NORTHWARD. 75


&&


.PREV UPDATE...
.UPDATE...
A 925-700MB THETA-E RIDGE CONTINUES TO BE ANCHORED FROM NEAR
AUSTIN-SAN ANTONIO NORTHWEST TOWARD LUBBOCK AND AMARILLO THIS
EVENING PER THE NAM12 AND RUC MODELS. ONE NON-SEVERE STORM CLUSTER
CONTINUE TO LINGER NEAR ABILENE. STORMS WERE SHOWING SOME DEVIANT
MOTIONS...BUT WERE MAINLY TRACKING EAST-SOUTHEAST ALONG THE EASTERN
PERIPHERY OF SAID THETA-E RIDGE. HAVE ADJUSTED EVENING POPS IN THE
20-30 PERCENT RANGE OVER FROM GOLDTHWAITE TO GRAHAM WITH THIS IN
MIND AND REMOVED THEM FROM THE SOUTHEAST WITH DUSK UPON US AND
ACTIVITY DIMINISHING QUICKLY.

A SHORTWAVE DISTURBANCE OVER THE TEXAS PANHANDLE SHOULD CONTINUE
TO DRIFT EAST-SOUTHEAST TOWARD THE LOW ROLLING PLAINS BETWEEN
ABILENE AND CHILDRESS/WICHITA FALLS OVERNIGHT AND HAVE LEFT
CURRENT 20 POPS IN ACROSS THE FAR NORTHWEST COUNTIES DUING THE PRE
DAWN HOURS OR AFTER 3-4 AM. SOME SPORADIC WEAK ACTIVITY COULD GET
INTO THOSE AREAS BEFORE DAYBREAK BUT NOTHING MAJOR. OTHERWISE...NO
OTHER CHANGES WERE MADE TO TEMPERATURES...CLOUD COVER...OR WINDS.

05/

&&


.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 352 PM CDT TUE JUL 29 2014/
A FRONTAL LAYER REMAINS INTACT ABOVE NORTH TEXAS. ELEVATED
CONVECTION BEGAN ABOVE THIS FRONTAL SLOPE BEFORE DAYBREAK. THE
ACTIVITY EXPANDED ALONG AN AXIS OF 700MB FRONTOGENESIS FROM
NORTHWESTERN OKLAHOMA...TO THE DALLAS/FORT WORTH METROPLEX...DOWN
THE I-45 CORRIDOR TO THE SOUTHEAST. ALTHOUGH RAIN AMOUNTS WERE
GENERALLY LIGHT...RAIN-COOLED TEMPERATURES WERE IN THE 70S DURING
THE AFTERNOON HOURS. HOWEVER...HIGH TEMPERATURES ON EITHER SIDE OF
THIS CORRIDOR REACHED THE UPPER 80S...DESPITE CLOUD COVER. THIS
AXIS OF PRECIPITATION WILL GRADUALLY COME TO AN END BY SUNSET.
SURFACE-BASED THUNDERSTORMS HAVE BEEN FOCUSED IN CENTRAL TEXAS...
WHERE SUNSHINE WAS PLENTIFUL MUCH OF THE DAY. ALTHOUGH INITIATED
BY FRONTAL DYNAMICS...THEIR MAINTENANCE IS PRIMARILY DRIVEN BY
SURFACE HEATING...AND THIS ACTIVITY WILL ALSO BE GONE BY MID-
EVENING.

WITH RIDGING ALOFT ERODED/DISPLACED TO THE SOUTH...THE WESTERLIES
ARE NOW IMPINGING ON NORTH TEXAS. A DISTURBANCE EMBEDDED IN THE
FLOW OVER COLORADO WILL APPROACH TONIGHT. AS THE TERRAIN FALLS
BENEATH IT...ONGOING LEE TROUGHING WILL DEEPEN. SOUTHERLY WINDS
WILL BE INDUCED AT THE SURFACE ACROSS NORTH AND CENTRAL TEXAS...
RESULTING IN FRONTOLYSIS. HOWEVER...THIS PROCESS WILL MEAN
FRONTOGENESIS ON THE HIGH PLAINS IN THE WAKE OF THE DISTURBANCE
WHICH WILL SWING THROUGH OKLAHOMA ON WEDNESDAY. STILL THINK THE
BULK OF THE CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY LATE TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY WILL BE
NORTH OF THE I-20 CORRIDOR.

THE MAIN EVENT WILL BE WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY AS THE MAIN
SHORTWAVE NOW SPIRALING OVER UTAH IS PULLED INTO THE PLAINS. THE
FLOW SHOULD RESULT IN SIGNIFICANT SHEARING AS ITS REMNANT ENERGY
FOLLOWS THE SAME TRACK AS THE WEDNESDAY IMPULSE. THIS TOO SHOULD
PRIMARILY AFFECT NORTHERN AND NORTHEASTERN ZONES...BUT ITS PASSAGE
SHOULD ALLOW THE NEW FRONT ON THE HIGH PLAINS TO SURGE THROUGH THE
REGION. THIS WILL GIVE SOUTHERN AND EASTERN ZONES A CHANCE FOR
SOME PRECIPITATION LATE THURSDAY BEFORE THE UNSEASONAL RAINY
PERIOD COMES TO AN END.

SUNSHINE WILL RETURN FRIDAY...BUT COLD ADVECTION WILL KEEP
TEMPERATURES BELOW SEASONAL NORMALS. IN FACT...PERSISTENT
NORTHERLY FLOW WILL MEAN A VERY SLOW WARMING TREND. THE MILD AIR
WILL GRADUALLY MODERATE...BUT TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN BELOW
NORMAL INTO NEXT WEEK WHEN THE GULF FINALLY REOPENS.

25



&&


.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DALLAS-FT. WORTH, TX  75  92  73  85  70 /  10  20  40  30  10
WACO, TX              74  97  74  89  70 /  10  10  20  30  20
PARIS, TX             69  81  68  78  66 /  10  40  80  50  10
DENTON, TX            73  89  71  83  67 /  20  20  50  40  10
MCKINNEY, TX          71  86  71  82  66 /  10  30  70  50  10
DALLAS, TX            76  92  74  85  71 /  10  20  40  30  10
TERRELL, TX           72  89  72  83  68 /  10  20  50  40  10
CORSICANA, TX         73  94  73  87  69 /  10  20  20  30  20
TEMPLE, TX            73  97  72  90  70 /  10  10  10  40  20
MINERAL WELLS, TX     72  97  69  84  67 /  20  20  20  20  10

&&

.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

75/05




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