Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Dallas/Fort Worth, TX

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148
FXUS64 KFWD 290911
AFDFWD

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Fort Worth TX
411 AM CDT Wed Mar 29 2017

.DISCUSSION...
Squall line continues to move east through North and Central Texas
but should be exiting the region by 6 am. This line of storms is
making steady progress east and dewpoints in the 50s are spreading
across the region behind the front. Most models still convect
storms in our far eastern counties this afternoon and will keep
high PoPs there for now, but the atmosphere may not recover. This
will be the main challenge to monitor and assess today. If storms
do redevelop, they could be severe with a threat for damaging
winds and hail, and possibly a tornado. There remains a low chance
for rain/storms generally along and north of I-20 tonight as the
upper level low crosses the Plains. The track of the upper level
low is now farther north than previous days, so the potential for
additional storms tonight looks to be low. A front will move
through the region tonight bringing cooler temperatures. Overnight
lows will be in the upper 40s and lower 50s.

Thursday and Friday will be quiet days. Thursday will be cool
with highs only in the mid 60s to mid 70s. We will quickly warm up
in the upper 70s and upper 80s on Friday as an upper level ridge
moves over the region, and southwest to west flow in the lower to
mid levels of the atmosphere brings warmer temperatures. Another
upper level low will move into New Mexico on Friday bringing a
chance for rain to the region this weekend.

Unfortunately the model runs tonight are less consistent with the
track of the upper level low than they have been the past few
days. On Saturday, convection is expected to develop along the
dryline to our west during the afternoon hours. This convection
will likely move into our area Saturday evening and night. Beyond
Saturday night, differences in the models muddle the forecast,
however we do still expect rain and storms to occur. The
uncertainty lies in where the heaviest rain and possible severe
weather concerns may be. The GFS and Euro appear to be the closest
in agreement with the heaviest rains still located across our
Central Texas counties and points east and southeast of there.
Have continued with the highest PoPs in these areas during the day
on Sunday, and we will continue to assess to the severe threat
and heavy rain/flooding threat.

The weekend rains should end on Monday, if not sooner, and then a
few more days of quiet weather is expected. Some storms may be
possible along another front around the middle of the week.

JLDunn

&&

.AVIATION...

MVFR ceilings continue to work northward from Central Texas and
should reach WACO by 06Z and the Metro Terminals around 08Z.

The broken line of thunderstorms currently west of the airports
will continue moving east and should begin to impact the western
airports around 08Z. However, the radar shows that an outflow
boundary is getting out ahead of the storms so this should keep
storms below severe limits as they move across the metroplex airports.
The stronger storms currently across the Concho Valley may
impact Waco beginning around 08Z. Gusty winds will be the primary
hazard with these storms. All storms should move east of the
terminals shortly after sunrise with VFR through the day
Wednesday.

A gusty southeast wind between 14 and 20 knots sustained will
briefly turn to the west and become gusty as the line of storms
moves across the region. Once the storms move east of the region
Wednesday morning, southerly winds will return between 12 and 15
knots. A cold front will move across the region Wednesday evening
and turn the wind to the northwest.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Dallas-Ft. Worth    81  52  72  53  82 /  20  20   5   5   0
Waco                82  52  75  51  84 /  20   5   5   5   0
Paris               76  50  66  48  78 /  70  30  10  10   5
Denton              79  49  70  48  82 /  20  20   5   5   0
McKinney            78  50  68  48  80 /  50  20  10   5   0
Dallas              81  53  72  53  82 /  30  20  10   5   0
Terrell             80  51  71  49  81 /  70  20  10   5   0
Corsicana           79  52  73  52  83 /  60  20  10   5   0
Temple              82  51  76  53  84 /  20   5   5   5   0
Mineral Wells       77  49  72  49  87 /  10  20   5   5   0

&&

.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

90/82



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