Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Huntsville, AL

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FXUS64 KHUN 231119 AAC
AFDHUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HUNTSVILLE AL
619 AM CDT SAT MAY 23 2015

.UPDATE...
FOR 12Z TAFS

&&

.DISCUSSION...
/ISSUED 145 AM CDT SAT MAY 23 2015/
UPPER RIDGING WILL BUILD ACROSS THE SOUTHEASTERN U.S. TODAY THRU
SUNDAY AS AN UPPER LOW OVER THE FOUR CORNERS BEGINS TO ROLL OUT INTO
THE WESTERN PLAINS. A DISTURBANCE NOW DROPPING ON THE BACK SIDE OF A
LARGER AMPLITUDE TROF AXIS ALONG THE PAC COAST WILL FOLLOW BEHIND
THE UPPER LOW AND EVENTUALLY EJECT THRU THE MO/OH VALLEYS EARLY-MID
WEEK. FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS, THE UPPER RIDGE WILL PROVIDE
WARMER TEMPS IN VALLEY LOCATIONS TODAY (U70S- L80S) AND SUNDAY
(L-M80S). OF COURSE THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS WILL BE A FEW DEGREES
COOLER. THE 10-15 DEGREE RIDGE-VALLEY SPLIT WE HAVE THIS MORNING WILL
BECOME LESS PREVALENT AFTER TONIGHT AS SOUTHERLY FLOW PRODUCES WARM
AND MOIST ADVECTION.

THE SHORT TERM MODELS CONTINUE TO BE FORECASTING A WETTER PERIOD
MONDAY-WEDNESDAY WITH THE REGION IN BETWEEN THE STRONG RIDGE THAT
MOVES OFF THE SE COAST AND THE INCOMING TAIL END OF THE UPPER TROF.
SEVERAL SMALLER SHORTWAVES WILL TRACK NE THRU THE REGION EARLY THIS
WEEK. THESE WILL INTERACT WITH AMPLE AMOUNTS OF MOISTURE TRANSPORTING
NWD FROM THE GULF OF MEXICO. HUMID AIR (DEW POINTS SHOULD CLIMB WELL
INTO THE 60S AND PERHAPS HIT 70) WILL BE IN PLACE THIS WEEK WITH
CONSIDERABLE CLOUDS AND AREAS OF PRECIP. THUS, TEMPS WILL BE NEAR
NORMALS IN THE U70S-L80S UNTIL LATE NEXT WEEK WHEN AN UPPER RIDGE
SHOULD REESTABLISH ITSELF OVER THE SE. NOT EXPECTING SEVERE WEATHER
WITH THIS SERIES OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS (AT LEAST NOTHING
WIDESPREAD) WITH VERY MOIST ATMO PROFILES AND ONLY WEAK-MODERATE
SHEAR. 2KM BULK SHEAR VALUES ARE GREATEST WITH THE TUESDAY SHORTWAVE
TROF, SO WE COULD SEE SOME GUSTY WINDS WITH MORE OF THE STORMS ON
THAT DAY. FOLLOWED THE BLENDS RATHER CLOSELY FOR THE OUTER PERIODS
WITH POPS ONLY IN CHC OR SCHC RANGE DAYS 6-7. WE MAY NEED TO RAISE
TEMPS IN FUTURE UPDATES LATE NEXT WEEK IF THE TREND IN THE ECMWF
CONTINUES.

AK

&&

.AVIATION...
FOR 12Z TAFS...

VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PREVAIL ACROSS N AL/S MIDDLE TN FOR
THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

SL.77

&&

.HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&

$$

FOR MORE INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT OUR WEBSITE
AT WEATHER.GOV/HUNTSVILLE.



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