Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Huntsville, AL
FXUS64 KHUN 240511 AAC
Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Huntsville AL
1211 AM CDT SUN JUL 24 2016
For 06Z TAFs.
(Issued 943 PM CDT SAT JUL 23 2016)
A strong upper level ridge (a tad weaker than the past few days with
maximum heights in the 596 decameter range across the southern
Rockies/Desert SW) continued to bring a light northerly flow aloft
over this forecast area. Earlier very strong daytime heating and
available moisture made for an unstable atmosphere, and another round
of showers and thunderstorms. The light steering winds and high
precip water amounts (ranging from 1.8 to 2 inches now and at 12Z)
created conditions favorable for locally heavy rainfall, gusty winds
and frequent lightning. As of this writing, shower and thunderstorm
activity was winding down with a loss of daytime heating.
With the rain ending, kept a slight chance of showers and/or storms
going through midnight with dry weather afterward. As noted above,
some areas especially across portions of northern Alabama (Limestone/
Madison/Jackson) and Southern Middle Tennessee (Franklin/Moore/
Lincoln) counties - per radar estimates received from 2-4 inches of
rain. Given the on-going drought, the ground was able to absorb this
dose of rain. Residual moisture from the recent rain and clearing
skies late tonight will be conducive for patchy fog development.
Nighttime lows from the day shift were in good shape, made only a
few tweaks up/down a degree in a few spots.
For 06Z TAFs: Remnant cirrus from previous convection should
gradually fade during the overnight, with dry weather expected.
Residual moisture from recent heavy rain (especially over NE Alabama
and Southern Middle Tennessee) could result in the formation of fog
late tonight. Given that neither KMSL and KHSV received much if any
rainfall during Saturday, opted to keep the TAF fog/mist free. That
being said with decreasing clouds and light winds, patchy fog cannot
be ruled out before daybreak. Fair weather cumulus should form during
mid/late Sunday morning. Somewhat drier conditions in the mid levels
should help limit convection development.
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