Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS North Platte, NE

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FXUS63 KLBF 300116
AFDLBF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service North Platte NE
816 PM CDT SUN MAY 29 2016

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Monday)
Issued at 337 PM CDT Sun May 29 2016

Rain shower and thunderstorm development across eastern Colorado
and Wyoming is slowly moving towards western Nebraska. Current
thinking is that it will still be several hours before any shower
activity impacts our CWA. The shortwave is still expected to move
across the Nebraska panhandle this evening, promoting thunderstorm
development across central Nebraska. Even with the shortwave and
ample moisture, it`s difficult to forecast exactly how strong or
widespread these showers will be as model guidance has been
inconsistent. For now, have included between 30 to 40 percent
chance of showers mainly between 7pm and 1am as the uncertainty in
location and strength is low. This will very likely have to be
modified as the evening progresses and it becomes more certain
where thunderstorms will develop.

Again...inconsistency among models makes it hard to determine when
these showers tonight will eventually move out of the area. For the
most part it is fairly certain that thunderstorms will exit the
western portion of Nebraska and the CWA 3am. It is the eastern
portion that is uncertain. Some models have showers continuing into
the morning in the east, while others have it drying out everywhere.
My thinking is that it will move out for the most part across the
entire CWA by morning. However, to account for the inconsistency,
have left in slight chance pops across the east. Warm air advection
continues tomorrow, resulting in slightly warmer temperatures than
was originally in the forecast. Shifted everyone up a few degrees to
account for this.

.LONG TERM...(Monday night through Sunday)
Issued at 337 PM CDT Sun May 29 2016

Monday night through Wednesday...the NAM and GFS develop heavy
convection across the Cheyenne divide Monday evening. Other storms
should develop along a dryline bulge across Wrn Cherry County and
the Wrn Sandhills. CONRAD and the models suggest the system forming
on the Cheyenne divide will move east or southeast and present a
wind damage threat in addition to hail while the storms across Nrn
Neb remain more singular producing large hail as the main threat.

A blend of the SREF...GFS and NAM models produces a 70 pop Monday
evening from roughly Imperial to Valentine including Ogallala and
North Platte. The ECM is similar to other models but farther east by
about 50 miles. A modest 9C 700mb cap will be in place trapping 2500
to 3500 j/kg of cape. Thus storm development may wait until late
afternoon...near 23z or later to affect the fcst area.

The convective systems should exit the forecast area by 12z with
rain chances 30 percent or less Tuesday. Gone is the closed H700mb
low shown by the NAM yesterday. The Pacific cold front should drive
moisture quickly south and east of the fcst area with dew points in
the 40s Tuesday afternoon.

Pacific high pressure will build across the fcst area Tuesday and
Wednesday with highs around 70. The blended guidance plus bias
correction produces lows in the 40s Wednesday morning.

Wednesday night through Sunday...northwest flow takes hold of the
fcst area and drives Pacific high pressure into the Srn high plains
preventing moisture return. An upper level ridge will build into the
Cntl Rockies supporting warm and dry weather. The models show a sfc
trof moving through the fcst area Thursday night but moisture and
instability are very limited. A weak cold front follows on Friday.

Pops are limited to isolated Thursday through Sunday and that might
be generous. Recent heavy rain might support the moisture flux
needed for this rain activity. Highs in the 80s are expected and
Friday is shown to be the warmest day. An approaching cold front
could provide deep vertical mixing for highs in the mid 80s that day.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Monday evening)
Issued at 815 PM CDT Sun May 29 2016

 Scattered thunderstorms will continue to affect southwest and
north central Nebraska between KIML and KBBW through the late evening.
MVFR cigs and vsbys in thunderstorms. Some of these storms will
have large hail and heavy rain. VFR conditions expected over
western Nebraska through Monday afternoon.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
Issued at 337 PM CDT Sun May 29 2016

Flooding along the North Platte River and main branch of the Platte
River will continue. While water levels will remain fairly steady
over the next few days, moderate flooding will continue along the
North Platte River at North Platte and Lewellen. Minor flooding will
continue at Lisco and Brady (along the main branch of the Platte
River). Although the South Platte river is not anticipated to flood
at this time, water levels will remain elevated at both Roscoe and
North Platte.

&&

.LBF Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Kulik
LONG TERM...CDC
AVIATION...Power
HYDROLOGY...Kulik



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