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000
FXUS64 KLUB 230946
AFDLUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
446 AM CDT THU MAY 23 2013

.SHORT TERM...
SEVERE WEATHER INCLUDING VERY LARGE HAIL AND PERHAPS A FEW TORNADOES
APPEARS TO BE A THREAT FOR LATER TODAY AND REMAINS OUR PRIMARY FOCUS.

A SURFACE COLD FRONT WAS SLOWING THROUGH NORTHEASTERN NEW MEXICO AND
THE NORTHWEST TEXAS PANHANDLE...BUT STILL SHOULD EASE SOUTHWARD INTO
OUR FAR NORTHERN ZONES AROUND MID-DAY BEFORE LOSING ITS PUSH. TO THE
NORTHEAST...THUNDERSTORMS WERE DEVELOPING ACROSS NORTHWESTERN INTO
CENTRAL OKLAHOMA AND SHOULD PROVIDE ADDITIONAL PUSH TO THE SOUTHWEST
FOR THIS FRONT. GUIDANCE THIS MORNING HAS EDGED THE SURFACE DRY-LINE
SLIGHTLY WEST OF PREVIOUS EXPECTATIONS...NOW OVER THE WESTERN SOUTH
PLAINS. DEWPOINTS WILL SURGE WESTWARD JUST BEHIND THIS SURFACE FRONT
GENERATING AFTERNOON MIXED LAYER CAPES IN EXCESS OF 3000 JOULES PER
KILOGRAM ALONG AND NORTH OF THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY. LOWER ATMOSPHERIC
TURNING OR HELICITY WILL INCREASE TO SEVERAL HUNDRED UNITS OR
GREATER WITH INCREASING LOW LEVEL SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW AND MODEST
SOUTHWEST TO WESTERLY WINDS UPSTAIRS. THERE MAY BE A SHORT WINDOW
FOR A TORNADIC THREAT MAINLY ALONG AND NORTH OF THE FRONT LATER
THIS AFTERNOON WHILE LIFTED CONDENSATION LEVELS PROBABLY WILL
REMAIN TOO ELEVATED FOR AS LARGE A THREAT TO THE SOUTHWEST ALONG
THE DRY-LINE ALTHOUGH TURNING WILL BE SUBSTANTIAL IN THIS AREA AS
WELL.

ANY DISCRETE SUPERCELLS EARLY IN THE EVENT LATER TODAY PROBABLY
WILL MERGE INTO A LARGE CONVECTIVE COMPLEX OVER THE EASTERN HALF
OF THE AREA BY EARLY IN THE EVENING...PRESSING TO THE SOUTHEAST
LATER IN THE EVENING. SEVERE WEATHER THREATS WILL ALSO MORPH MORE
INTO HIGH WINDS AND HAIL DURING THE EVENING. A HEAVY RAIN THREAT
ALSO WILL OCCUR EARLY AS HIGH-PRECIPITATION SUPER-CELLS MAY
DEVELOP...WHILE EXTENDING AS WELL INTO THE CONVECTIVE SYSTEM PHASE
DURING THE EVENING. IN ADDITION...STRONG OUTFLOW EAST OR SOUTHEAST
WINDS SHOULD DEVELOP BY EARLY IN THE EVENING OVER MUCH OF THE
AREA...BEFORE TAPERING OVERNIGHT. WE INCREASED RAIN CHANCES
SLIGHTLY TO THE WEST THIS AFTERNOON IN SOLID CHANCE CATEGORY NEAR
THE DRY-LINE...AND ALSO DURING THE EVENING FROM CENTRAL AREAS TO
THE SOUTH-SOUTHEAST. MINOR CHANGES TO THE TEMPERATURE GRID FIELDS.
RMCQUEEN

&&

.LONG TERM...
LINGERING CONVECTION MAY STILL BE ONGOING ACROSS THE SOUTHERN
ROLLING PLAINS FOLLOWING SUNRISE FRIDAY MORNING...AS THE MESOSCALE
CONVECTIVE COMPLEX MENTIONED ABOVE DIVES SOUTH. THIS SYSTEM SHOULD
BE COLD POOL DOMINANT AT THIS POINT AND SUBSEQUENTLY FALL APART AS
THE LOW LEVEL JET WEAKENS. SCATTERED STORMS WILL COMMENCE ONCE AGAIN
FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING AS THE DRYLINE CONTINUES TO FAVOR A
POSITION NEAR THE NEW MEXICO STATE LINE OR ACROSS THE BORDER INTO
EASTERN NEW MEXICO. INITIATION WILL BE FARTHER WEST ACROSS PORTIONS
OF THE SOUTH PLAINS REGION DUE TO THE WESTERN PROXIMITY OF THE
DRYLINE. MAY SEE STORMS LINGER INTO THE LATE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT
HOURS AS A SHORTWAVE TROUGH ATTEMPTS TO DEVELOP AND GET CAUGHT UP IN
THE SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT. THUS...HAVE KEPT A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR
STORMS IN THE FORECAST THROUGHOUT FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY
MORNING.

SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL PREVAIL ALOFT AS SOUTH/SOUTHEAST LOW LEVEL FLOW
CONTINUES TO KEEP SEASONABLY RICH MOISTURE IN PLACE AND THE DRYLINE
PULLED BACK ACROSS MOST IF NOT ALL OF THE SOUTH PLAINS INTO EARLY
NEXT WEEK...PROMOTING DAILY AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORM CHANCES. AN UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH ACROSS THE WESTERN CONUS LOOKS TO FINALLY KICK OUT
ACROSS THE DESERT SOUTHWEST AND ROCKY MOUNTAIN REGION BY MIDWEEK.
DETAILS AS TO LEAD IMPULSES DOWNSTREAM OF THIS FEATURE WILL NEED TO
BE FINE TUNED IN SUBSEQUENT FORECASTS. HOWEVER...WEDNESDAY APPEARS
TO BE THE DAY FAVORING THE BEST UPPER SUPPORT AHEAD OF THIS FEATURE
AS IT TAKES ON A NEGATIVE TILT. THIS MAY ALLOW THE DRYLINE TO MIX
FARTHER EAST AND CONFINE STORM CHANCES MORESO TO THE ROLLING PLAINS
AND FAR SOUTHEAST PANHANDLE. NONETHELESS...THOUGHT THIS WARRANTED
ADDING LOW END MENTIONABLE POPS TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOONS...PUSHING THEM FARTHER EAST EACH DAY. DID NOT MAKE MANY
CHANGES TO ONGOING SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES AS DECREASED DIURNAL
RANGES SEEM LIKELY GIVEN THE PERSISTENT MOISTURE ACROSS THE AREA.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
FRIONA        91  59  82  60  82 /  30  30  50  30  20
TULIA         88  61  83  62  82 /  60  50  50  30  20
PLAINVIEW     92  62  84  63  82 /  60  60  50  30  20
LEVELLAND     94  62  84  64  82 /  40  50  50  30  20
LUBBOCK       94  62  86  65  83 /  30  60  50  30  20
DENVER CITY   93  62  85  64  82 /  30  30  50  30  20
BROWNFIELD    93  62  86  65  83 /  30  50  50  30  20
CHILDRESS     89  64  85  66  84 /  60  60  30  30  20
SPUR          94  64  87  66  83 /  30  60  50  30  20
ASPERMONT     95  67  87  67  84 /  20  60  30  40  20

&&

.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

05/31