Area Forecast Discussion
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FXUS64 KLUB 241121
AFDLUB

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Lubbock TX
521 AM CST Fri Nov 24 2017

.AVIATION...
Breezy westerly winds will develop this afternoon in response to a
strengthening surface low pressure system in eastern New Mexico.
Winds will decrease this evening before a cold front moves through
early Sunday morning. This front will shift winds to the north and
become breezy again.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 339 AM CST Fri Nov 24 2017/

DISCUSSION...
Heights aloft will fall today as an upper trough skirts by to the
north with deep enhanced wind flow extending into our area as
well. The bulk of energy from this system is expected north of
our area, and surface pressure falls today look less impressive
than previously expected. Surface trough still will deepen
modestly as it edges east today, with deep downslope flow leading
to high temperatures approaching records for Lubbock 82 degrees
in 1915 and 83 degrees for Childress in 1988. Our forecast numbers
actually are right on the record numbers for both locations. But
wind speeds only look modestly breezy compared to earlier
expectations.

As the surface trough/low edge east this evening, a cold front
will surge southward overnight. Trends support tighter surface
pressure packing and a little higher winds behind the front later
tonight into early Saturday. The pressure gradient will slowly
loosen through the day Saturday, but after the near-record warmth
today, Saturday morning in particular will seem a bit chilly;
afternoon highs still expected into the 60s, however, a little
warmer than our normals.

Surface high pressure ridge over the area Saturday night with a
chillier night - opted towards the low side of guidance
temperatures. Lee troughing and renewed south-southwest flow
Sunday will allow a decent recovery.

Our next warm, breezy or windy period will occur Monday into
Tuesday, in advance of next round of upstream energy which
appears will be further south and more on target to spread
stronger flow atop our region. Fair uncertainty when the maximum
wind period will occur, so a little hesitant to ramp speeds too
strongly. Also could see a Pacific cold front perhaps Monday night
or Tuesday that may also impact wind outcome quite a bit. Will
pass along the potential wind impacts therefore to later shifts.
Precipitation chances with this further south system may occur not
far north of our area, but we have retained a dry scenario
through the coming 7 days. More wave activity likely to follow
late next week, but nothing yet to suggest moisture will be much
improved. RMcQueen

FIRE WEATHER...
Near record warm temperatures are expected today, as well as low
level winds turning downslope west to southwesterly. Relative
humidity levels generally will fall into the 10% to 20% range.
Wind speeds appear slightly less than earlier projections - mostly
below critical thresholds for fire weather concerns. And it may
even be difficult for some areas to become very breezy. Even so,
given the very warm temperatures and low humidity, we have opted
to issue a Fire Danger Statement all areas. A modest cold front
will follow tonight with surface winds turning north to northeast
and should ease concerns, though given the dry airmass and since
Saturday`s highs still will be warmer than normal, cannot rule out
at least a small chance for elevated fire danger again.

Late Monday and Tuesday will bring the next period with enhanced
wind flow and warm temperatures, in advance of an energetic wave
aimed much further south than todays wave. Lots of uncertainty
regarding timing the wind maximums, but early projections suggest
a chance of elevated or critical fire weather developing during
this period. RMcQueen

&&

.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

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