Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Memphis, TN

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FXUS64 KMEG 101132
AFDMEG

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
532 AM CST WED FEB 10 2016

.UPDATE...

UPDATED FOR THE 12Z AVIATION DISCUSSION

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 246 AM CST WED FEB 10 2016/

DISCUSSION...

A DEEP UPPER LEVEL TROUGH COVERS THE EASTERN HALF OF THE U.S.
EARLY THIS MORNING WITH NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT PERSISTING OVER THE
MID SOUTH. A SHORTWAVE TROUGH UPSTREAM ACROSS THE UPPER
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY EARLY THIS MORNING WILL DIVE SOUTHEAST LATER
TODAY AND SPREAD AN AREA OF LIGHT SNOW ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE MID
SOUTH LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THE HIGHEST POTENTIAL
WILL BE ACROSS PORTIONS OF NORTHWEST TENNESSEE WHERE UP TO ONE
HALF INCH OF SNOW WILL BE POSSIBLE. COLD TEMPERATURES MAY ALLOW
FOR SOME OF THIS SNOW TO STICK TO ROADWAYS LATER THIS EVENING. ANY
LIGHT SNOW WILL TAPER OFF BEFORE MIDNIGHT WITH SKIES CLEARING LATE
TONIGHT FROM WEST TO EAST. PLAN TO MENTION THE LIGHT SNOW
POTENTIAL IN THE LATEST HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK. MINOR IMPACTS
TO TRAVEL ARE POSSIBLE...BUT NO SIGNIFICANT ISSUES ARE
ANTICIPATED AT THIS TIME. LATER SHIFTS WILL CLOSELY MONITOR
THROUGH THE DAY IN CASE SNOWFALL ENDS UP HEAVIER THAN CURRENTLY
ANTICIPATED. HIGH TEMPERATURES TODAY WILL RANGE FROM THE UPPER 20S
ACROSS NORTHWEST TENNESSEE TO AROUND 40 DEGREES ACROSS THE
MISSISSIPPI RIVER DELTA. LOWS TONIGHT WILL BE PRIMARILY IN THE 20S
AREAWIDE.

HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS BACK INTO THE AREA FOR THURSDAY AND FRIDAY.
COOL TEMPERATURES THURSDAY WILL MODERATE BACK TO NEAR NORMAL
LEVELS BY FRIDAY WITH DRY WEATHER EXPECTED THROUGH THE END OF THE
WEEK.

AN ARCTIC COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO SURGE ACROSS THE MID SOUTH
FRIDAY NIGHT WITH MUCH COLDER WEATHER EXPECTED FOR THE UPCOMING
WEEKEND. THE FRONT SHOULD HAVE LIMITED MOISTURE TO WORK
WITH...THEREFORE HAVE LEFT THE FORECAST DRY THROUGH SATURDAY.

THE WEATHER PATTERN BECOMES QUITE INTERESTING BY THE END OF THE
WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK AS A MORE SIGNIFICANT SHORTWAVE DROPS
SOUTHEAST OUT OF THE CENTRAL PLAINS INTO THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI
VALLEY. COLD AIR WILL LIKELY BE ENTRENCHED OVER THE REGION AS
SURFACE LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS AND MOVES EAST TO THE SOUTH OR ALONG
THE SOUTHERN BORDER OF OUR FORECAST AREA. THIS MAY SET THE STAGE
FOR A PERIOD OF POTENTIALLY SIGNIFICANT WINTER WEATHER ACROSS MUCH
OF THE FORECAST AREA BEGINNING LATER SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND
CONTINUING INTO MONDAY MORNING. AS WARMER AIR ADVECTS NORTHWARD ON
MONDAY...EXPECT WINTRY PRECIPITATION TYPES TO SLOWLY TRANSITION TO
ALL RAIN FROM SOUTH TO NORTH THROUGH THE DAY. THERE STILL IS
PLENTY OF UNCERTAINTY THIS FAR OUT...BUT MUCH OF THE GUIDANCE
SUGGESTS AT LEAST SOME WINTER WEATHER POTENTIAL DURING THIS
PERIOD. PLEASE CONTINUE TO MONITOR THE LATEST FORECASTS THROUGH
THE REMAINDER OF THIS WEEK FOR UPDATED INFORMATION.

FOLLOWING THE EARLY WEEK STORM SYSTEM...A TRANSITION BACK TO
WARMER AND DRIER WEATHER APPEARS THE MOST LIKELY TREND. THEREFORE
HAVE TRENDED THE FORECAST IN THIS DIRECTION FOR THE VERY END OF
THE FORECAST PERIOD.

JLH

&&

.AVIATION...
12Z TAF CYCLE

VFR CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST FOR MUCH OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. SOME
LIGHT SNOW WILL BE POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON AND THIS EVENING MAINLY
OVER PORTIONS OF WEST TENNESSEE. WINDS WILL BE MAINLY FROM THE
NORTHWEST THIS MORNING AT 5 T0 10 KNOTS BEFORE SHIFTING TO THE
SOUTH BY LATE THIS AFTERNOON.

ARS

&&

.MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
MO...NONE.
MS...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&

$$


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