Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Memphis, TN

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FXUS64 KMEG 221743
AFDMEG

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Memphis TN
1243 PM CDT Mon May 22 2017

.DISCUSSION...
Updated for Aviation Discussion.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 1012 AM CDT Mon May 22 2017/

DISCUSSION...

A 110 kt upper level jet punching across Texas this morning. This
feature is helping to enhance an area of rain over the Lower
Mississippi River Valley. Question will be...how far north will
this activity extend into North Mississippi. Edged pops a little
father north and increased them across the southern row of
counties from Tallahatchie to Monroe. Elsewhere increased cloud
cover due to extensive high clouds across the region.

SJM

PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 337 AM CDT Mon May 22 2017/

Early morning temperatures are mostly in the low to middle 60s
across the Midsouth with a few upper 50s in the typically cooler
locations. High clouds blanket the region. Light north winds are
ushering in a drier airmass. Temperatures will likely fall another
2-4 degrees resulting in sunrise temperatures ranging from the
middle 50s to low 60s.

Seasonably cool temperatures may be the highlight of the weather
story over the next week or so. It does not appear we are facing
any weather notable of adding to the Hazardous Weather Outlook
through next weekend. We will likely see rain midweek and again
next weekend...but noting points to any type of severe weather
outbreak at this time.

Below normal temperatures are expected through Thursday with near
to slightly above normal temperatures returning Friday into next
weekend. Our coolest temperatures are expected Wednesday afternoon
and Thursday morning when both highs and lows will average around
10 degrees below normal.

A few showers may make it into North Mississippi this
afternoon...but a transient surface high will keep most of the
Midsouth dry today. It will shift eastward across the
Appalachians by the afternoon hours loosing its influence over the
Midsouth.

A broad positively tilted trough will gradually shift to the east
over the next several days...becoming centered over the
Mississippi river valley by Wednesday afternoon. A midlevel
disturbance and associated cold front will track across the
Midsouth late Tuesday into Wednesday. Along and ahead of the
front, rain showers and perhaps a few thunderstorms will return to
the Midsouth. It appears the heaviest rain and thunderstorms will
be to our South and East as a surface low tracks from South
Mississippi across middle Alabama.

The trough will shift over the Carolinas Thursday and a weak
ridge shift in from the West resulting in drier and warmer
conditions Thursday into Friday.

Next weekend, weak Southwest flow will return to the Midsouth. We
may see enhanced pops again late Saturday into Sunday.

30

&&

.AVIATION...
18Z TAF Cycle

VFR conditions continue throughout the period. There is a chance
for some showers this afternoon at Memphis, however, only put in
VCSH starting at 22Z expect the showers to move out of Memphis
area before 01Z tonight. Winds will switch to more easterly and
then tomorrow to more westerly. Tupelo should see some
thunderstorms on Tuesday morning. Expect that there is enough
cloud cover for fog or mist to develop. TLSJr

&&

.MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...None.
MO...None.
MS...None.
TN...None.
&&

$$



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