Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Memphis, TN

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FXUS64 KMEG 281048
AFDMEG

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
448 AM CST SUN DEC 28 2014

.DISCUSSION...

BUSY WEATHER FORECAST THIS MORNING AS AN ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN WILL
OCCUR ACROSS THE REGION TODAY THROUGH THE UPCOMING WEEK. TWO MATTERS
OF CONCERN TO DEAL WITH THIS MORNING...ONE IS THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH
THAT WAS ISSUED EARLIER FOR PORTIONS OF NORTHEAST MS. THE OTHER
BEING THE THREAT OF SOME WINTRY PRECIPITATION THURSDAY NIGHT INTO
FRIDAY MORNING.

EARLY THIS MORNING...A COLD FRONT WAS PUSHING SOUTHEAST OF THE
MIDSOUTH WITH COLDER AIR PUSHING INTO THE AREA. RAIN HAD ENDED
ACROSS MUCH OF THE REGION BUT WAS BEGINNING TO SPREAD BACK INTO THE
AREA FROM THE SOUTHWEST. THUNDERSTORMS WERE WELL TO OUR SOUTHEAST.

A SHORT WAVE OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS WILL PUSH EASTWARD TODAY AND
TONIGHT WITH RAIN SPREADING BACK ACROSS MUCH OF THE MIDSOUTH IN THE
WAKE OF THE COLD FRONT. THE BEST CHANCE OF RAIN WILL BE FROM EAST
CENTRAL AR INTO WEST TN AND NORTH MS. BASED ON THE HRRR...KEPT HIGH
POPS FOR THIS REGION THROUGHOUT THE DAY. FORECAST POPS RANGE FROM
LESS THAN 20 PERCENT OVER PORTIONS OF NORTHEAST AR TO NEAR 100
PERCENT ACROSS MOST OF NORTH MS. THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO
REMAIN TO OUR SOUTH AND EAST. PROLONGED LIGHT TO MODERATE RAIN WILL
OCCUR ACROSS NORTH MS...BUT FLASH FLOOD PRODUCING THUNDERSTORMS ARE
NO LONGER EXPECTED. THUS THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH WAS CANCELLED.
HIGHEST RAINFALL AMOUNTS WILL AVERAGE AROUND 1/2 INCH ACROSS
PORTIONS OF NORTH MS...PERHAPS A LITTLE HIGHER SOUTH AND EAST OF
TUPELO BUT WELL BELOW FLASH FLOOD GUIDANCE VALUES. COLD AIR WILL
CONTINUE TO PUSH INTO THE AREA TODAY WITH STEADY OR SLOWING FALLING
TEMPERATURES FOR MUCH OF THE AREA. LOWERED HIGH TEMPERATURES SOME
FROM THE PREVIOUS FORECAST.

COLD HIGH PRESSURE WILL EXTEND INTO THE MIDSOUTH FROM THE NORTH
MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY WITH BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND
PRECIPITATION FREE CONDITIONS. THE GFS INDICATES A 1058 MB HIGH OVER
THE NORTHERN ROCKIES MONDAY NIGHT. SUNSHINE IS EXPECTED TO RETURN BY
TUESDAY.

COLD WEATHER WILL CONTINUE FOR NEW YEARS DAY. CLOUDS WILL BE ON THE
INCREASE WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE OF RAIN SPREADING INTO THE REGION FROM
THE SOUTHWEST IN THE AFTERNOON...FROM EAST CENTRAL AR INTO PORTIONS
OF NORTH MS.

THE BLENDED GUIDANCE INDICATES HIGH POPS SPREADING ACROSS ALL OF THE
MIDSOUTH THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY AS AN OVERRUNNING PATTERN SETS UP
WITH A WARM FRONT TO OUR SOUTH. WITH COLD AIR IN PLACE...A MIXTURE
OF SLEET...FREEZING RAIN...AND SNOW IS FORECAST FROM PORTIONS OF
NORTHEAST AR ACROSS THE MO BOOTHEEL INTO PORTIONS OF WEST
TN...MAINLY ALONG AND NORTH OF A LINE FROM HARRISBURG AR TO
COVINGTON TN TO SAVANNAH TN. AT THIS TIME...ANY ACCUMULATIONS ARE
EXPECTED TO BE LIGHT. THE PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED TO CHANGE TO
RAIN BY MID-MORNING FRIDAY. BRIEF SLEET MAY OCCUR JUST TO THE SOUTH
OF THIS AREA THURSDAY EVENING BEFORE CHANGING TO RAIN WITH
TEMPERATURES ABOVE FREEZING.

BY FRIDAY...MODELS SHOW MUCH WARMER AIR ALOFT SPREADING INTO THE
REGION WITH ALL THE PRECIPITATION CHANGING TO RAIN BY MID-MORNING
FRIDAY. ELEVATED INSTABILITY SUPPORTS A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS FROM
EAST CENTRAL AR INTO PORTIONS OF NORTH MS BY FRIDAY AFTERNOON.

A COLD FRONT WILL PUSH THROUGH THE AREA FRIDAY NIGHT / SATURDAY WITH
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.

JCL

&&

.AVIATION...

06Z TAF CYCLE

CIGS AND VIS HAS BEEN HIGHLY VARIABLE OVER THE PAST 8 HRS OR MORE
AND SEE NO REASON FOR THAT TO CHANGE. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
DRIZZLE WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE THROUGH THE MID- SOUTH IMPACTING
ALL SITES TONIGHT...AND LIKELY CONTINUE THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY
TOMORROW AT MKL AND TUP. JBR SHOULD SEE THE LEAST AMOUNT OF
ACTIVITY. PRECIPITATION SHOULD DIMINISH AFTER MIDDAY AND MEM BY
EARLY TO MIDDLE AFTERNOON AT MKL. PREVAILING VIS WILL BE IN THE
3-5SM RANGE...BUT BRIEF PERIODS OF 1-2SM VIS CANNOT BE RULED OUT
IN ASSOCIATION WITH SOME OF THE HEAVIER SHOWERS. IFR CIGS WILL
PREVAIL TONIGHT...WITH GRADUAL IMPROVEMENT TOMORROW. MEM AND MKL
SHOULD IMPROVE TO MVFR TOMORROW AFTERNOON WITH VFR CIGS POSSIBLE
AT JBR. TUP IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN IFR THROUGH THE DAY. ALL SITES
SHOULD SEE VFR CONDITIONS TOMORROW NIGHT. WINDS NORTHERLY 5-10KT.

30

&&

.MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
MO...NONE.
MS...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&

$$



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