Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Memphis, TN

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FXUS64 KMEG 221522

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Memphis TN
1022 AM CDT Tue Aug 22 2017


A cold front currently stretches from south of Chicago, to just
north of St. Louis, southwest to near Wichita, Kansas. Lingering
showers are occurring along the front. These will continue to
dissipate. The latest short term models show redevelopment of
showers and thunderstorms across Southeast Missouri, Northeast
Arkansas, Western Kentucky, and Northwest Tennessee this afternoon
as the front pushes into the area. The convection will sink south
toward I-40 by the late afternoon hours. Will make some minor
adjustments to POPS and cloud conditions as well as remove morning
wording. Update will be out shortly.



.DISCUSSION... /issued 318 AM CDT Tue Aug 22 2017/

Skies are mostly clear across the forecast area this morning with
temperatures mainly in the 70s. Currently, a cold front extends
from eastern Wisconsin through southeast Nebraska and into eastern
Colorado. This cold front should drop south today reaching into
southern Missouri by late this afternoon. Showers and
thunderstorms are expected to develop ahead of the front with some
of this activity moving into northern sections of the forecast
area this afternoon. A few thunderstorms could produce damaging
winds. Temperatures will be on the hot side with highs in the low
to mid 90s. Heat index values could exceed 100 degrees in the

The cold front will move into the forecast area tonight with more
thunderstorms expected. Some of these thunderstorms could also
produce some damaging winds. Temperatures will remain on the warm
side with lows Wednesday morning in the upper 60s to lower 70s. By
Wednesday, the cold front will move through north Mississippi in
the morning with more thunderstorms possible. Cooler air will
start to move into the forecast area so temperatures will not be
as warm with highs in the low to mid 80s.

High pressure will build into the region by Wednesday night
bringing a lengthy period of dry weather for the region. No rain
is expected from Wednesday night through Saturday. Temperatures
will remain below normal through the period.

The forecast for Sunday and Monday will be highly dependent on
what happens to what is now the remnants of what was once Tropical
Storm Harvey. The models show the remnants to reorganize once they
reach the Gulf of Mexico and strengthen before they reach the
Texas Coast on Friday. The models then bring Harvey inland and
then track it east and weaken it. The GFS has what`s left of
Harvey over northeast Louisiana by Monday morning. This scenario
could mean some heavy rainfall for portions of the forecast area
east of the Mississippi River. GFS rainfall forecast has 6 to 10
inches of rain possible over north Mississippi for Monday. With
this in mind, will mention the possibility of heavy rainfall in
the HWO.




VFR will prevail for much of the day. A cold front will move
through the region tonight. Expect showers and thunderstorms to
develop and impact KJBR, KMKL and KMEM late this afternoon into
early this evening with gusty winds and occasional MVFR conditions.
Activity will probably weaken before reaching KTUP so went with a
VCTS there tonight. MVFR cigs are likely behind the front at
KJBR, KMKL and KMEM overnight. SW winds at 6-10 kts expected today
becoming light north overnight.





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