Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Memphis, TN

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FXUS64 KMEG 232334
AFDMEG

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Memphis TN
534 PM CST Thu Feb 23 2017

.DISCUSSION...
Updated for 00Z Aviation Discussion.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 310 PM CST Thu Feb 23 2017/

DISCUSSION...

At 230 PM, A spectacular Winter day, or Spring day depending on
how you look at it, is taking place across the Mid-South.
Temperatures range from the lower 70s in northeast Mississippi to
the upper 70s across the Mississippi River Delta.

Short term...tonight into Sunday...
Another mild night overnight with temperatures near the 60 degree
mark. For Friday, another potentially record breaking day with
temperatures reaching the mid to upper 70s everywhere. In addition
to the warmth, we will see strong southerly gradient winds 10 to
20 mph with occasional gusts to around 30 mph. Any rain showers
during the daytime should remain confined to the northern part of
the forecast area in proximity to the front.

By Friday night, a cold front and shortwave trof will begin to
move through the Mid-South. A combination weak surface instability,
decent upper level lapse rates, and a strong 100 knot mid-level
jet will result in a couple of strong to severe storms mainly over
northern west Tennessee in the early evening hours. Areas west
along and west of the Mississippi River will not see much rain,
if any at all.

By Saturday morning, high pressure will begin to build into the
Mid-South and bring an end to rain chances. Moderate CAA will
result in high temperatures hovering around the 50 degree mark
areawide under sunny skies. High pressure will become nearly
centered over the Mid-South by Sunday morning, resulting in a
freeze across the majority of the Mid-South. We are personally
hoping for a hard freeze to kill off the prematurely born
February mosquitoes.

Long term... Sunday into next week...
High pressure will slide east during the day on Sunday and allow
winds to turn back around to the south. This will result in a
slight warming trend and temperatures returning to the 60s.
The next weather maker appears to be a weak shortwave embedded in
southwesterly flow aloft. The ECMWF and GFS continue to differ
with their solutions, however this forecast package leans heavily
towards the consistent Euro solution. A warm front will begin to
lift north late Sunday night with a few showers possible. A
combination of being in the warm sector and a few disturbances
within the mean upper level flow, will keep a healthy chance of
isolated to scattered thunderstorms in the forecast beginning
Monday afternoon and continuing through Wednesday. In addition,
temperatures will remain mild with readings in the 60s to around
70 degrees.

Both models agree on a cold front pushing through the Mid-South on
Wednesday. High pressure will build in on Thursday and cool
Pacific originated air will move in behind the front. At this
point, dry conditions and seasonal temperatures are expected
through next weekend.

AC3

&&

.AVIATION...

00Z TAFs

VFR for most of the TAF period...with the exception for potential
IFR/MVFR cigs at JBR and TUP. Confidence slightly better for JBR.
South winds will be a greater concern...with frequent gusts at
all sites. Low level wind shear likely to form during the night.
Winds will diminish some late...veering southwest along a passing
cold front. This boundary will likely trigger isolated showers in
the region along with a storm or two near TUP.

JAB

&&

.MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...None.
MO...None.
MS...None.
TN...None.
&&

$$



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