Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Memphis, TN

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FXUS64 KMEG 010436
AFDMEG

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Memphis TN
1136 PM CDT WED AUG 31 2016

.DISCUSSION...
Updated for 06z aviation discussion.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 926 PM CDT WED AUG 31 2016/

UPDATE...Evening Update.

Removed pops for the remainder of the night. Temperatures look on
track.  No significant changes needed.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 302 PM CDT WED AUG 31 2016/

.DISCUSSION...

Currently...Hot and humid weather continues across the Mid-South
with temperatures in the lower to mid 90s and dewpoints mainly in
the lower 70s, a little lower over NE Mississippi. Surface
heating combined with humid conditions is resulting in isolated
showers and thunderstorms across the Mid-South this afternoon.
Most of this activity will dissipate with loss of heating this
evening.

Upper level high pressure will gradually weaken across the region
as a cold front pushes south across the area on Thursday. Not much
surface convergence along the front and the upper support is weak
so at best expect isolated showers and thunderstorms along and a
ahead of the front and that may be a stretch. Drier and cooler
air will start filtering into the area on a northerly breeze.
Highs will range from the lower to mid 80s along the KY/MO
borders to lower 90s south of Tupelo. Dewpoints will start
dropping into the 60s.

As T.S. Hermine impacts Florida and parts of SE U.S. high pressure
will continue to build into the Mid-South. A dry and relatively
cool airmass will settle in for the end of the week into the
holiday weekend. Friday will be the coolest day with highs in the
mid 80s with some lows in the upper 50s by Saturday morning.
Expect a gradual warm up during the weekend though humidity levels
will remain comfortable.

Surface high pressure will start to move east with upper level
ridging starting to rebuild over the area next week. As a result
expect a return to typical summertime weather. Humidity levels
will start to increase with the possibility of a few showers and
thunderstorms by Tuesday.

SJM

&&

.AVIATION...
06z TAFs

VFR to start...but confidence is still strong that an MVFR cig
will develop near sunrise...or shortly there after for all
locations except TUP. Light showers will also be in vicinity as
a weak cold front pushes south. Light north/northeast winds will
increase to 8-12 kts...with a few higher gusts at MEM and TUP.

JAB

&&

.MEG Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
AR...None.
MO...None.
MS...None.
TN...None.
&&

$$



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