Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Memphis, TN

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FXUS64 KMEG 061106
AFDMEG

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
506 AM CST FRI MAR 6 2015

.UPDATE...

UPDATED FOR 12Z AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW...

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 437 AM CST FRI MAR 6 2015/

DISCUSSION...

MUCH QUIETER WEATHERWISE THAN THIS TIME LAST NIGHT. SKIES HAVE
CLEARED AND NOW DEALING WITH THE VERY COLD TEMPERATURES IN THE WAKE
OF THE WINTER STORM. TEMPERATURES HAD DROPPED INTO THE SINGLE
DIGITS EARLY THIS MORNING FROM NORTHEASTERN AR ACROSS THE MO BOOTHEEL
INTO NORTHWEST TN WHERE SNOW COVER IS THE DEEPEST. PARIS TN WAS AT
ZERO DEGREES. WIND CHILL READINGS IN THESE LOCATIONS WERE BETWEEN
ZERO AND 10 DEGREES BELOW ZERO WITH A LIGHT NORTHEAST WIND. LEFT
THE WIND CHILL ADVISORY AS IN UNTIL 8 AM GENERALLY ALONG AND NORTH
OF A LINE FROM FORREST CITY AR TO HERNANDO MS TO SELMER TN.
LOCATIONS ALONG AND SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 40 MAY NOT MEET CRITERIA OF
ZERO DEGREES FOR THE WIND CHILL...BUT WILL BE CLOSE IN SOME SPOTS.

STRONG HIGH PRESSURE OF 1035+ MB WILL BE SITUATED OVER THE MIDSOUTH
TODAY THEN GRADUALLY SINK SOUTHWARD TONIGHT AS IT SLOWLY WEAKENS.
MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES WILL OCCUR THROUGH SATURDAY...SO NEAR FULL
SUNSHINE TODAY AND AGAIN SATURDAY WILL HELP IN MELTING THE SNOW AND
SLEET. HIGHS TEMPERATURES TODAY WILL REMAIN NEAR OR SLIGHTLY BELOW
FREEZING WHERE THE DEEPEST SNOW COVER EXISTS FROM NORTHEASTERN
AR AND THE MO BOOTHEEL INTO NORTHWEST TN. TO THE SOUTH TEMPERATURES
WILL MANAGE TO CLIMB ABOVE FREEZING WITH NEAR 40 DEGREES OR A
LITTLE ABOVE EXPECTED ACROSS PORTIONS OF NORTHEAST MS WHERE THE
WINTRY PRECIPITATION WAS LESS.

TEMPERATURES WILL DROP TO WELL BELOW FREEZING AGAIN ACROSS THE
AREA...THUS REFREEZING AND BLACK ICE WILL REMAIN A PROBLEM IN MANY
LOCATIONS. HIGHS ON SATURDAY WILL CLIMB INTO THE LOWER 40S TO
MIDDLE 50S...THUS WILL FEEL MUCH WARMER AND MUCH MORE MELTING
WILL OCCUR.

MODELS AGREE IN SHOWING A CHANCE OF RAIN SPREADING ACROSS THE AREA
FROM THE WEST SUNDAY. AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL MOVE INTO THE
SOUTHERN PLAINS WITH OVERRUNNING RAIN SPREADING INTO THE MIDSOUTH
ESPECIALLY IN THE AFTERNOON. ALTHOUGH LOW TEMPERATURES
EARLY SUNDAY MORNING MAY DROP TO BELOW FREEZING IN SOME LOCATIONS...
TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO BE ABOVE FREEZING BY THE TIME THE
PRECIPITATION MOVES IN WITH RAIN OCCURRING. WILL KEEP AN EYE ON THIS
IN CASE THE PRECIPITATION MOVES IN QUICKER THAN PRESENTLY FORECAST.

THE THREAT OF RAIN WILL CONTINUE INTO MONDAY AND TUESDAY GRADUALLY
SHIFTING SOUTHEASTWARD. TEMPERATURES WILL BE CLOSE TO NORMAL FOR A
CHANGE TUESDAY.

MODELS ARE NOT IN VERY GOOD AGREEMENT AROUND MID-WEEK WITH THE GFS
INDICATING THE MIDSOUTH BEING AFFECTED MORE BY THE NORTHERN STREAM
AND DRIER AIR...WHILE THE ECMWF MAINTAINS MORE OF A SOUTHWEST FLOW
ALOFT ACROSS THE AREA AND A CHANCE OF RAIN FOR PORTIONS OF THE
AREA. BY THE END OF THE WORK WEEK...THE ECMWF AND GFS BOTH POINT
TOWARD A WETTER SOLUTION FOR THE REGION. HIGH TEMPERATURES ARE
FORECAST IN THE 60S ACROSS THE ENTIRE AREA WEDNESDAY THROUGH
FRIDAY...A HEAT WAVE.

JCL

.AVIATION...

12Z TAF CYCLE

VERY PATCHY FOG HAS DEVELOPED NEAR JBR AND SATELLITE IMAGERY
CONFIRMS THAT IT IS VERY ISOLATED. ANY FOG WILL DISSIPATE AFTER
SUNUP WITH VFR CONDITIONS PREVAILING THROUGH THE TAF VALID PERIOD.

TVT

&&

.MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...WIND CHILL ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM CST THIS MORNING FOR CLAY-
     CRAIGHEAD-CRITTENDEN-CROSS-GREENE-LAWRENCE-MISSISSIPPI-
     POINSETT-RANDOLPH-ST. FRANCIS.

MO...WIND CHILL ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM CST THIS MORNING FOR DUNKLIN-
     PEMISCOT.

MS...WIND CHILL ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM CST THIS MORNING FOR BENTON MS-
     DESOTO-MARSHALL.

TN...WIND CHILL ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM CST THIS MORNING FOR BENTON TN-
     CARROLL-CHESTER-CROCKETT-DECATUR-DYER-FAYETTE-GIBSON-
     HARDEMAN-HAYWOOD-HENDERSON-HENRY-LAKE-LAUDERDALE-MADISON-
     MCNAIRY-OBION-SHELBY-TIPTON-WEAKLEY.

&&

$$


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