Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Memphis, TN

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FXUS64 KMEG 301114
AFDMEG

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
614 AM CDT TUE SEP 30 2014

.UPDATE...AVIATION DISCUSSION.


&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 230 AM CDT TUE SEP 30 2014/

WELL ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE MIDSOUTH
THROUGH THURSDAY.

CURRENTLY...SFC HIGH PRESSURE IS LOCATED OVER
THE GREAT LAKES. THE HIGH WILL SHIFT INTO THE OHIO VALLEY ON
WEDNESDAY. MEANWHILE...AN UPPER RIDGE HAS MOVED OVER THE MIDSOUTH.
THE RIDGE WILL BEGIN TO PUSH EAST WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY. AS A
RESULT...HIGHS WILL BE IN THE MID TO UPPER 80S THROUGH THURSDAY.
LOWS WILL BE IN THE MID 50S TO MID 60S TONIGHT. LOWS WILL BE
WARMER WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS CLOUDS MOVE INTO THE AREA. EXPECT
READINGS IN THE MID 60S TO LOWER 70S. CAN/T RULE OUT A FEW WARM
AIR ADVECTION SHOWERS OCCURRING ACROSS THE MISSISSIPPI DELTA LATE
WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY MORNING. UNTIL THEN...EXPECT NO
PRECIPITATION.

THURSDAY INTO THURSDAY NIGHT...A COLD FRONT WILL BEGIN TO APPROACH THE
MIDSOUTH LATE IN THE DAY. EXPECT SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WELL AHEAD OF THE FRONT TO BEGIN POPPING ACROSS THE
AREA BETWEEN 3-5 PM. MEANWHILE...A LINE OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP ALONG THE FRONT WHICH WILL BE LOCATED
BACK ACROSS SOUTHWEST MISSOURI AND NORTHWEST ARKANSAS. THE LINE MAY BEGIN
TO OUTRACE THE FRONT DURING THE EVENING HOURS. THE LINE IS
EXPECTED TO MOVE INTO NORTHEAST ARKANSAS AFTER 7 PM. THE LINE WILL
ROUGHLY BE LOCATED ALONG THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER BETWEEN 11 PM-1 AM.
THE AIRMASS AHEAD OF THE FRONT WILL BE UNSTABLE WITH MODELS
INDICATING CAPE VALUES BETWEEN 1500-2200 J/KG. THUS SOME STORMS
COULD BECOME STRONG TO SEVERE DURING THE AFTERNOON INTO THE
EVENING HOURS. DAMAGING WINDS AND LARGE HAIL WILL BE THE MAIN
THREATS FROM THESE STORMS. THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK FOR SEVERE
STORMS FOR AREAS WEST OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER.

LINGERING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MAY CONTINUE ACROSS AREAS IN
WEST TENNESSEE NEAR THE TENNESSEE RIVER AND NORTHEAST MISSISSIPPI
ON FRIDAY. OTHERWISE...EXPECT COOLER AIR TO BEGIN TO FILTER INTO
THE AREA BEHIND THE FRONT.

EXPECT BEAUTIFUL AUTUMN WEATHER FOR THE WEEKEND AS SFC HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE MIDSOUTH. EXPECT CLEAR SKIES WITH HIGHS
IN THE UPPER 60S TO UPPER 70S. LOWS WILL BE IN THE MID 40S TO
LOWER 50S.

ANOTHER COLD FRONT MAY BRING SMALL CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ON MONDAY.

KRM

&&

.AVIATION...12Z TAF CYCLE

PATCHY FOR AT MKL AND TUP SHOULD DISSIPATE EARLY THIS MORNING BUT
MAY REDEVELOP AGAIN TONIGHT. OTHERWISE VFR CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED. WINDS WILL BE LIGHT MAINLY FROM THE EAST.

&&

.MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
MO...NONE.
MS...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&

$$






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