Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Melbourne, FL
FXUS62 KMLB 240334
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Melbourne FL
1030 PM EST Mon Jan 23 2017
Earlier ZFP update was issued to remove Wind Advisory. Still some
gusts to 25-30MPH showing up in the METARS over the central-south
coast, however sustained winds are currently 15-20MPH and dropping.
ZFP/grid updates will be cosmetic.
.AVIATION...VFR/SKC through the H24 TAF period, with the MLB-SUA
corridor becoming so between 04Z-05Z. Stout late afternoon gusts up
to 35-40KT+ posed N-S crosswind issues at KMCO earlier, however
current peak gusts have decreased to 25KT, mainly over the southern
/coastal aerodromes, and will continue to subside overnight.
MARINE...Will be dropping the Gale Warning with this evening`s
updates as W to WNW winds/gusts continue to drop into/through the
IMPACT WX UPDATES...Sharp
.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 256 PM EST Mon Jan 23 2017/
Tuesday...Rapidly building heights and building surface pressure
will allow for a pleasant day on Tuesday. Expecting mostly sunny
skies and highs in the low 70s, which is near if not just a tad
above late January averages. Pressure gradient will continue to
relax, so winds won`t be nearly as gusty, averaging around 15 mph
during the afternoon.
Tue night...Surface high pressure will build over south FL Tuesday
night with a dry airmass in place. Light west winds in the evening
will become light NW to calm overnight. Lows are expected to drop to
45 to 50 degrees.
Wed...High pressure will shift offshore from S FL in the morning
setting up light south to southwest flow at the surface. A very dry
airmass will remain over the peninsula with mostly sunny skies.
Highs will reach the mid to upper 70s.
Thu...A cold front will move toward northern portions of east
central FL Thu afternoon with slight shower chances from Osceola and
Brevard counties northward as the front approaches. Highs will warm
to 75 to 80 degrees ahead of the front with increasing cloud cover
through the day.
Fri-Mon...High pressure will build toward the nrn Gulf coast Friday
with dry and cool northerly winds behind the front that will have
moved through the Keys Thu night. Highs Friday will be mainly in the
60s except lower 70s across srn sections. A deepening trough aloft
across the ern states and disturbance moving toward the area from
Gulf into Sunday will keep the weather cool and unsettled heading
into the later part of the weekend. Initial dryness to the airmass
should keep Saturday mainly dry and cool but mid level lift Sat
night and Sunday will increase light rain chances across the area
though rainfall amounts should remain fairly light. The east coast
trough will start to swing toward the mid Atlantic by Monday
allowing another surge of cool and dry air from the northwest Monday
afternoon. Highs through the period will be mainly in the 60s and
lows will drop into the 40s across interior and nrn sections.
Main concern through sunset is very gusty surface winds as low-
level west flow continues to be quite strong. Surface winds around
20 knots, gusting as high as 35 knots through 23Z.
Occasional VFR CIGS between FL040-FL050 through the afternoon
before clouds quickly scour out after sunset.
Rest of Today/Tonight...Very hazardous boating conditions will
continue across the waters as strong W/NW winds up to 25-30 knots
and frequent gusts to gale force persist. This will continue to
produce seas up to 8-10 feet offshore. A Gale Warning remains in
effect over the waters through late this evening and will
transition to a SCA through the remainder of the overnight.
Tuesday...Departing low pressure will allow winds to gradually
diminish Tuesday afternoon, however, seas will be slow to subside
especially over the outer waters. Have extended the SCA through
the afternoon hours across the offshore zones (beyond 20 nautical
miles) where 7+` will likely persist a bit longer.
Wed...Decreasing winds are expected Wed with high pressure pushing
east from s FL. Seas will subside to 2-3 ft near shore and 3-4
Extended...Next passing front late Thu afternoon will bring winds
and seas to headline criteria once again Thu aftn/Thu night. NW-N
flow will continue Friday and Saturday keeping seas elevated
Low pressure will gradually pivot up the eastern seaboard into
Tuesday. Gusty winds will continue through sunset, up to 35-40
mph, before becoming less gusty overnight. While drier air will
filter into the region overnight and Tuesday, RH values should
remain above critical levels for the next couple of days.
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DAB 48 71 46 74 / 0 0 0 0
MCO 52 72 50 76 / 0 0 0 0
MLB 49 72 48 76 / 0 0 0 0
VRB 52 73 48 77 / 0 0 0 0
LEE 49 71 48 76 / 0 0 0 0
SFB 50 72 47 77 / 0 0 0 0
ORL 51 71 51 77 / 0 0 0 0
FPR 49 74 48 77 / 0 0 0 0
AM...Small Craft Advisory from 11 PM this evening to 11 AM EST
Tuesday for Flagler Beach to Volusia-Brevard County Line 0-
20 nm-Sebastian Inlet to Jupiter Inlet 0-20 nm-Volusia-
Brevard County Line to Sebastian Inlet 0-20 nm.
Small Craft Advisory from 11 PM this evening to 4 PM EST Tuesday
for Flagler Beach to Volusia-Brevard County Line 20-60 nm-
Sebastian Inlet to Jupiter Inlet 20-60 nm-Volusia-Brevard
County Line to Sebastian Inlet 20-60 nm.