Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Melbourne, FL

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FXUS62 KMLB 171916

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Melbourne FL
216 PM EST Sun Dec 17 2017


...Above Normal Temperatures This Week and Little Chance of Rain...
...Conditions Appear Favorable for Morning Fog Mon and Tue...

Current-Tonight...Fairly deep layer high pressure in control of the
Florida peninsula`s weather. The east-west oriented surface ridge
axis will slide southward into north-central FL by daybreak Mon
morning. The pressure gradient remains weak so our current light
onshore flow will become near calm this evening/overnight.
Conditions will remain dry. Overnight mins will range from the
U50s/L60s. Model guidance suggests areas of fog developing over the
interior late tonight into early Mon morning, more patchy in nature
near the east coast. Fog will be locally dense at times late tonight
and early Mon morning, especially inland.

Mon...Likely some fog/low stratus clouds around early with this
activity burning off thru mid-morning. The high pressure ridge axis
will continue to sag into the central FL peninsula during the day as
winds remain light areawide. Conditions continue to remain dry. Deep
layer ridging remains stout over the region keeping surface/upper-
level weather systems well north. Highs continue above climo, in the
U70s along the coast and L80s inland.

Mon Night-Sunday(Christmas Eve...edited previous discussion)...

12Z runs of GFS/ECMWF continue to show decent agreement through the
extended period, with both indicating an extended period of mainly
benign weather conditions for east central FL. A strong mid level
ridge of high pressure over the FL straits/Cuba will keep warm/dry
conditions across the forecast area through Wed as deeper moisture
gets steered around the ridge to the north of the area. Above normal
high temps expected to reach the lower 80s each day (with mid 80s
possible) over the interior. Light onshore flow will hold coastal
sections to the upper 70s/near 80 Tue then offshore (SW) flow Wed
should allow widespread  lower 80s with a few mid 80s possible along
the coast given enough solar heating. In fact, record highs may be
threatened on Wed at DAB/MLB/VRB where the record is 83F at each
location. Low temps will be mild in the low to mid 60s.

Meanwhile, a cut-off low over the desert SW is forecast to eject
E/NE across the southern US early in the week. This feature will
weaken as it encounters confluent flow over the eastern US but it
should flatten/weaken the ridge aloft enough to allow a weak cool
front to settle south into north/central FL Thu. 12Z models are
consistent in bringing low PoPs into northern sections and have
maintained a small 20 PoP for showers Osceola/Brevard northward on
Thur...which remains the best opportunity for rain this week. Not
much, if any, cooling is expected with this front, then GFS/ECMWF
both show the ridge aloft rebuilding across the area Fri into this
weekend. Expect above normal temps with rain chances remaining below
any mentionable values Friday through Christmas Eve(Sunday).


.AVIATION...VFR conds into this evening. Guidance suggests greater
threat for fog development late tonight into early Mon morning. Fog
could become locally dense inland across some TAF sites. Tempo
IFR/MVFR conditions will occur with any fog development overnight
into early/mid Mon morning. Conditions otherwise will remain dry
with deep layer ridging in place across the region.


.MARINE...Afternoon-Mon...East-west oriented high pressure ridging
will slide southward into north-central FL late overnight and over
the central FL peninsula during the day on Mon. The pressure
gradient remains weak with wind speeds AOB 10 kts. Onshore afternoon
flow will be more southerly this evening, perhaps SWRLY overnight
north of Sebastian Inlet. Seas continue 1-3 ft promoting favorable
small craft boating conditions.

Mon Night-Fri...Ridge axis extending across the central Florida
peninsula will keep light winds and the continuation of favorable
boating conditions through Tue night. The ridge axis will be nudged
southward Wed into Thurs with approach of weakening cold front. As
this occurs, flow will veer to southwest and increase to 10-15kt
northern waters, 5-10kt south. Front will continue to weaken as it
droops into the waters on Thursday but may bring some showers,
especially over the northern legs. High pressure building in from
the north will turn winds to NE-E on Friday, mainly 10kt or less.


.FIRE WEATHER...Afternoon thru Tue...High pressure ridging, weak
pressure gradient, light winds (poor to fair dispersion) in control
of the weather with RH values still forecast to remain well above
critical. Both max/min temps above climo. Areas of fog development
forecast for next couple of nights and mornings, thicker away from
the coast, and locally dense at times. Improvement of visibility
thru mid to late morning, should combination of fog/low clouds


DAB  59  80  61  77 /   0   0  10   0
MCO  60  83  62  83 /   0   0  10   0
MLB  60  80  63  80 /   0   0  10   0
VRB  62  80  62  80 /   0   0   0   0
LEE  61  82  62  83 /   0   0  10   0
SFB  60  82  62  82 /   0   0  10   0
ORL  61  83  63  82 /   0   0  10   0
FPR  61  81  62  79 /   0   0   0   0




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