Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Melbourne, FL

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FXUS62 KMLB 092003
AFDMLB

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Melbourne FL
303 PM EST Fri Dec 9 2016

.DISCUSSION...

Tonight...Mid and high clouds across srn sections of the forecast
area this afternoon will move toward south FL overnight as
increasing NNE/NE low level flow increases marine stratocu across
the Atlantic. Short range guidance indicates some showers will
approach the Treasure coast through the night. Will have low shower
chances along the coast from Vero Beach south and dry weather
elsewhere. Lows will be chilly across nrn areas with lows into the
40s along and NW of I-4. The remainder of east central FL will see
lows in the 50s, except some lower 60s across Martin county.

Saturday...Sfc high pressure will build twd the TN valley allowing
low level winds to veer to the NE with winds around 20 knots at H9.
Considerable marine stratocu should move onshore with some light
showers possible near the east coast. Highs will range from the
upper 60s nrn areas to 70-73 across the central and srn zones.

Sat night-Sun night...Fairly strong surface high pressure centered
across the mid Atlc coast will move off of the eastern seaboard and
into the western Atlc. The flow aloft remains zonal to near zonal as
mid-level heights increase across the area. Deep layer moisture
values will steadily increase as winds veer from northeast to
southeast through the period. Highs Sun 75 to 80 degrees. Overnight
lows Sat night generally in the 50s over the interior and Volusia
coast with L-M60s along the central Brevard coast thru the Treasure
coast. Mins Sun night more mild and in the 60s areawide, except a
few normally cooler locations over the interior that may realize
U50s. Low-level moisture return from the Atlantic will support
isolated Atlc showers some of which may move onshore along the
coast, but most locations will remain dry.

...Previous Extended Forecast Discussion...

Mon-Thu...Warm WX pattern in store for much of next week as an H85-
H50 anticyclone builds from the SW Atlc acrs the GOMex, while zonal
flow continues to dominate the WX pattern acrs the CONUS. The
combination of a blocking ridge to the south and lack of meridional
flow to the north will effectively prevent any cold fronts from
penetrating much further south than the FL Panhandle. Max temps in
the U70s/L80s... min temps in the M50s/L60s interior and M/U60s
along the coast.

Chance of shras areawide on Mon as S/SW flow thru the column pushes
the frontal moisture band back thru central FL. Warm frontal precip
regime with low QPF potential (0.10"-0.25"). Lack of any significant
lifting mechanisms either at the surface or aloft thru midweek will
limit precip chances to isold shras Tue/Wed that manage to dvlp in
pockets of enhanced moisture.

&&

.AVIATION...
Mainly VFR through 06z with mid level cloudiness moving twd south
FL. Isold SHRA psbl near the east coast mainly south of KVRB
overnight and low SHRA CHCs (~20 percent) for remainder of east
coast terminals into the day on Saturday.

&&

.MARINE...

Tonight...NNE winds near 20 knots will veer to NE with winds near 15
knots across the nrn waters late and near 20 knots across the south.
Will keep Advisory conditions all waters through 4 am. Seas to 7-8
ft in the gulf stream.

Saturday...NE winds expected near 15 knots across the north and
around 20 knots across the srn waters. Advisory conditions expected
for the central and srn waters into the afternoon. Seas to 6-8 ft in
the gulf stream...highest south of Sebastian Inlet.

Sat Night...Strong high pressure over the mid Atlc states will begin
to drift off of the east coast as the local winds across ECFL begin
to veer from NE to E. Wind speeds generally 15 kts, except 15-20 kts
southward from near Melbourne Beach. Seas mainly 4-5 ft except will
approach 5-7 ft where winds are strongest over the Gulf Stream.

Sun-Sun Night...High pressure continues to drift further east into
the western Atlc. Easterly winds will gradually veer to southeast
through this time. Wind speeds will continue at least 15 kts over
the open Atlc. Seas generally 4-5 ft except 5-6 ft over the Gulf
Stream.

Mon-Wed...The pressure gradient relaxes with winds generally below
15 kts and all major weather systems presently forecast to remain
above east central Florida. Initial seas 4-5 ft very early in the
period subsiding to 2-4 ft by late in the period.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DAB  48  67  55  76 /  10  20  10  10
MCO  50  70  56  79 /   0  10   0  10
MLB  54  71  61  77 /  10  20  10  20
VRB  57  72  62  78 /  20  20  10  20
LEE  44  69  52  77 /   0   0   0  10
SFB  48  70  55  78 /   0  10   0  10
ORL  50  70  55  78 /   0  10   0  10
FPR  59  71  63  77 /  20  20  10  30

&&

.MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...None.
AM...Small Craft Advisory until 4 AM EST Saturday for Flagler Beach
     to Volusia-Brevard County Line 0-20 nm-Flagler Beach to
     Volusia-Brevard County Line 20-60 nm.

     Small Craft Advisory until 4 PM EST Saturday for Sebastian Inlet
     to Jupiter Inlet 0-20 nm-Sebastian Inlet to Jupiter Inlet
     20-60 nm-Volusia-Brevard County Line to Sebastian Inlet 0-
     20 nm-Volusia-Brevard County Line to Sebastian Inlet 20-60
     nm.

&&

$$

Volkmer/Sedlock


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