Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Melbourne, FL

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000
FXUS62 KMLB 221547 AAA
AFDMLB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MELBOURNE FL
1045 AM EST SAT NOV 22 2014

.DISCUSSION...

...ROUGH BOATING/SURF CONDITIONS WITH INCREASING RAIN CHANCES...

NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES NEEDED TO CURRENT FORECAST. MULTILAYERED
CLOUDINESS WILL CONTINUE OVER THE AREA WITH LOWERING CLOUD CEILINGS
THRU TONIGHT. WARM AIR ADVECTION/UPGLIDE PRODUCING (MID LEVEL)
ALTOCUMULUS WHILE STRONG EAST FLOW IS BRINGING WIDESPREAD STRATOCU
ONSHORE AND SCATTERED SHOWERS ALONG THE TREASURE COAST.

(MODIFIED) THE LARGE SURFACE HIGH TO THE NORTH WILL SHIFT EAST AND
OFFSHORE INTO THE ATLC OVER THE NEXT 24 HRS AS THE BASE OF A MID
LEVEL SHORT WAVE TROUGH UPSTREAM MOVES OVER THE NERN GOMEX/GULF
COAST...WITH SOME MID LEVEL VORTICITY REACHING THE BIG BEND AREA.
COMBINATION OF THESE TWO FEATURES WILL CAUSE GRADUAL VEERING OF
WINDS IN THE SFC-H85 FROM ENE-E TO SE AND S...WITH BACKING OF THE
H70-H50 FLOW FROM WSW TO SW. THIS WILL CAUSE THE OLD BOUNDARY TO
LIFT BACK NWD AS A WARM FRONT....ADVECTING THE HIGHER MEAN PWAT AIR
MASS LURKING TO OUR SOUTH BACK NWD ACROSS OUR AREA. AREAS OF LIGHT
RAIN WILL CONTINUE...WITH EMBEDDED MODERATE TO HEAVY SHOWERS IN
BANDED MARINE ACTIVITY ALONG THE SPACE/TREASURE COASTS THIS
AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT. BEST LIFT AND BETTER RAIN CHANCES WILL LIFT
NWD WITH THE FRONT...REACHING NORTH FL BY SUNDAY MORNING.

OVERALL...CONDITIONS LOOK CLOUDY/DAMP BUT WARM. NOT A HUGE DIURNAL
RANGE GIVEN THE EXTENSIVE CLOUD COVER. MAXES GENERALLY IN THE M-U70S
WITH LOWS IN THE U60S-L70S.

&&

.AVIATION...
CIGS WILL LOWER/THICKEN WITH MVFR CONDS DEVELOPING/SPREADING NWD
FROM SUA-VRB. EVENTUALLY EXPECT IFR TO LOW END MVFR CIGS
BKN-OVC007-015 BECOME PREVALENT STARTING IN THE 22Z-02Z TIME FRAME
AND PERSISTING THROUGH 12Z-14Z.

&&

.MARINE...
SFC ANALYSIS AND NOAA/SCRIPPS BUOY OBS SHOW SOLID SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY CONDITIONS OCCURRING ON THE ATLC WATERS. SCRIPPS BUOY 6
MILES OFFSHORE FPR RECORDING 8 FT SEAS...9 FT AT BUOY 009 WITH 20-25
KNOTS. THIS IS LIKELY PRODUCING 5 TO 6 FT BREAKERS IN THE SURF
ZONE...ROUGH SURF AND HIGH RISK OF RIP CURRENTS. MINOR BEACH EROSION
IS EXPECTED ESP DURING THE NEXT 2 HIGH TIDE CYCLES...EARLY THIS
EVENING AND AGAIN EARLY SUNDAY MORNING.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DAB  73  69  81  68 /  50  60  60  40
MCO  76  67  83  68 /  50  60  60  40
MLB  76  73  82  70 /  50  50  50  30
VRB  77  74  82  70 /  50  50  50  30
LEE  75  66  83  68 /  50  60  60  40
SFB  75  67  83  67 /  50  60  60  40
ORL  76  68  83  68 /  50  60  60  40
FPR  78  74  82  70 /  50  50  40  30

&&

.MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
AM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM EST SUNDAY FOR COASTAL WATERS
     FROM FLAGLER BEACH TO JUPITER INLET OUT TO 60 NM.

&&

$$

KELLY/SEDLOCK







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