Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Melbourne, FL

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FXUS62 KMLB 300002
AFDMLB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MELBOURNE FL
8 PM EDT FRI MAY 29 2015

.DISCUSSION...

UPDATED ZONES TO REMOVE BEACH HAZARDS HEADLINE FROM THE COASTAL
COUNTY ZONES.

RADARS DETECTING A STEADY STREAM OF SHOWERS IN THE EASTERLY FLOW
MOVING OVER THE COASTAL WATERS AND COMING ASHORE. LAST COUPLE OF
VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGES SHOWING SCATTERED TO BROKEN MARINE
STRATOCUMULUS WITH ISOLATED SHOWERS STRETCHING FROM THE FLORIDA EAST
COAST WELL EAST INTO THE WESTERN ATLANTIC.

CURRENT FORECAST OF SHOWERS INITIALLY IMPACTING THE COAST THIS
EVENING REACHING THE ORLANDO SANFORD AREAS MIDNIGHT TO 2AM AND THE
LEESBURG CLERMONT AREAS 2AM TO 4AM STILL A GOOD CALL.

OTHER THAN SOME CLEANING UP OF THE FIRST PERIOD TEXT THE ZONES ARE
IN GOOD SHAPE.

.AVIATION...VFR. BASED ON LAST VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY AND RADAR
REFLECTIVITY LOOPS VCSH COASTAL THROUGH 04Z SPREADING INTO KISM KMCO
KSFB 04Z-08Z AND REACHING KLEE 08Z-12Z.

.MARINE... BUOYS RECORDING NORTHEAST WINDS 10 TO 15 KNOTS AND 3 TO 5
FEET WITH 8 TO 11 SECOND PERIODS. NORTHEAST TO EAST WINDS TO 15
KNOTS AND 3 TO 5 FOOT LONG PERIOD SEAS(SWELL) TO CONTINUE OVERNIGHT.

PREVIOUS AFD

THROUGH TONIGHT...RADAR AND SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS SHOWER ACTIVITY
HAS INDEED BEGUN TO TAPER OFF AND SHIFT INTO WRN FL AS SLIGHT DRYING
HAS OCCURRED IN ITS WAKE. LULL IN CLOUDS/SHRA EXTENDS OFFSHORE ABOUT
100-120 MILES BEFORE A FEW PERTURBATIONS EMBEDDED IN THE EASTERLIES
WHICH ARE LIKELY WEAK LOW LEVEL VORT RIPPLES SHED FROM THE CTRL ATLC
LOW A DAY OR TWO AGO. THESE FEATURES WILL CARRY SMALL CONVGT SHRA
BANDS WITH THEM THAT WILL WORK THEIR WAY TWD THE COAST AND ONSHORE
ONSHORE FROM LATE EVENING INTO THE OVERNIGHT. GIVEN THE STRENGTH OF
PERSISTENT ONSHORE WIND FLOW...THINK THERE MAY BE SMALL POTENTIAL
FOR A FEW SHOWERS TO SNEAK INTO THE INTERIOR LATE TONIGHT. MINS NEAR
70F INLAND...L70S ALONG THE COAST.

SAT...ONSHORE FLOW CONTINUES...ALBEIT JUST A TAD WEAKER COMPARED TO
TODAY. A RELATIVELY FAST MOVING DIFFUSE ECSB WILL PUSH RAPIDLY
INLAND FROM LATE MORNING INTO EARLY-MID AFTERNOON...WITH HIGHER CHC
FOR SHOWERS (30-40) AND PSBLY AN ISOLD TS OR TWO. SHRA ACTIVITY
SHOULD BE MORE ISOLD ALONG THE COAST. MUCH LIKE THE LAST SEVERAL DAYS
MAXES IN THE M-U80S ALONG THE COAST AND NEAR 90F INLAND.

SAT NIGHT-SUN NIGHT...ECFL IS ON THE WESTERN FLANK OF WEAK UPPER
LEVEL RIDGING AS UPPER TROUGHING SLOWLY DEEPENS ACROSS THE ARKLATEX
AREA. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT AT THE SURFACE REMAINS RELATIVELY WEAK
WITH AN AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE STILL RESIDING OVER THE WESTERN ATLC
WELL NORTHEAST OF THE AREA. INITIAL LIGHT EASTERLY FLOW VEERS TO SE
SAT OVERNIGHT/SUN...THEN MORE SE/S SUN OVERNIGHT. THE ECSB WILL
DEVELOP SUN MORNING AND PUSH WELL INLAND DURING THE DAY. LATE
NIGHT/MORNING SHOWERS WILL FAVOR THE EAST COAST WITH AFTERNOON/EARLY
EVENING CONVECTION FAVORING THE INTERIOR/WESTERN PENINSULA.
AFTERNOON HIGHS SUN M80S COAST/U80S TO L90S INTERIOR. OVERNIGHT LOWS
GENERALLY IN THE U60S/L70S AREAWIDE.

...PREVIOUS EXTENDED FORECAST DISCUSSION SLIGHTLY MODIFIED...

MON-THU...A CONTINENTAL RIDGE WILL PUSH OFF THE MID ATLC/NEW ENGLAND
COAST AND REINFORCE THE ATLC RIDGE...EFFECTIVELY SHUNTING THE ERLY
WAVE INTO THE SE GOMEX. GFS GUIDANCE IS HINTING AT A WETTER PATTERN
AS THE REINFORCED RIDGE WOULD TEND TO DEFLECT THE ERLY WAVE INTO THE
GOMEX...ALLOWING FL TO GAIN IT`S ASCENDING FLANK. ECMWF MODEL
SUGGESTS A CLOSED SFC LOW WILL DVLP AND OUT OF THE WAVE AND LIFT NE
ACRS S FL AND THE NRN BAHAMAS...A PATTERN THAT ALSO WOULD BRING
INCREASED PRECIP CHANCES FOR CENTRAL FL AS THE ONSHORE FLOW THAT
WOULD PREVAIL ON THE NORTH SIDE OF SUCH A SYSTEM WOULD PUSH THE
WAVE`S DEEP LYR MOISTURE ACRS THE STATE.

PRECIP CHANCES WILL TREND UPWARD WED-THU...BUT WILL HOLD MAX POPS AT
50PCT FOR NOW AS THE GFS/ECMWF SOLUTIONS...WHILE SIMILAR IN
RESULTS...DO ARRIVE AT THEM BY VERY DIFFERENT MANNERS. TEMP TREND OF
U80S/L90S FOR AFTN MAXES WILL CONTINUE...MIN TEMPS WARMING INTO THE
L/M70S AS THE DRY AIR ERODES.

&&

.AVIATION..VFR. BASED ON UPSTREAM VIS SATELLITE IMAGERY...BETTER CHC
FOR ISOLD SHRA DAB-TIX-MLB AFTER 04Z=06Z.

&&

.MARINE...TONIGHT/SAT...HIGH PRESSURE WILL WILL SLOWLY WEAKEN OVER
THE NEXT H24. HOWEVER...PERSISTENT LONG EASTERLY FETCH WILL CONTINUE
TO PRODUCE COMBINED SEAS IN THE 3-5FT RANGE IN AN 8-9SEC WINDSWELL.

SAT NIGHT-SUN NIGHT...A WEAK HIGH PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL EXIST
ACROSS THE AREA. E/ENE FLOW VEERING SLIGHTLY SUN NIGHT TO ESE. WIND
SPEEDS GENERALLY AOB 15 KTS. THE PERSISTENT FLOW PATTERN WILL
CONTINUE TO PUSH AN ERLY SWELL INTO THE FL ATLC COAST...KEEPING SEAS
IN THE 3-4FT RANGE NEAR SHORE AND 4-5FT RANGE OFFSHORE. DOMINANT PDS
8-9SEC. SLGT CHC OF SHRAS THRU THE WEEKEND...MAINLY DURING THE
NIGHT/MORNING PERIODS. ROUGH SURF/ELEVATED RIP CURRENT THREAT
CONTINUES THIS WEEKEND AT AREA BEACHES ACROSS ECFL.

...PREVIOUS EXTENDED MARINE DISCUSSION SLIGHTLY MODIFIED...

MON-WED...LIGHT TO GENTLE SERLY BREEZE THRU THE FIRST PART OF NEXT
WEEK AS THE ERLY WAVE BREAKS DOWN THE WRN FLANK OF THE ATLC RIDGE.
SEAS SUBSIDING FROM 3-4FT ON MON TO 2-3FT ON TUE. INCREASING
PRECIPITATION CHANCES ON WED...THOUGH NONE OF THE DAYS IN THIS
PERIOD SHOW OFFSHORE MOVING SHOWERS/STORMS AT PRESENT.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DAB  72  85  70  86 /  20  20  20  30
MCO  70  90  71  90 /  10  40  10  40
MLB  73  85  72  86 /  20  20  20  30
VRB  71  86  71  86 /  20  20  20  30
LEE  71  90  72  90 /  10  40  10  40
SFB  70  89  70  90 /  10  30  10  40
ORL  71  89  71  89 /  10  40  10  40
FPR  70  85  69  86 /  20  20  20  30

&&

.MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
AM...NONE.
&&

$$

IMPACT WX...LASCODY
FORECASTS...WIMMER


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