Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Melbourne, FL

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FXUS62 KMLB 181949
AFDMLB

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Melbourne FL
348 PM EDT Wed Oct 18 2017

.DISCUSSION...

Tonight...An elongated high pressure ridge will stretch from the mid
Atlantic east-northeast across the Atlantic overnight with low level
northeast flow. A mid level trough will push southeast from the
southeast Atlantic coast allowing additional drying in the mid-upper
levels across nrn sections overnight. Enough low level moisture will
remain to support slight shower chances across the interior into the
evening and then along the east coast into the overnight hours
mainly south of Cape Canaveral. Lows in the upper 60s interior to
lower 70s near the coast.

Thu...Surface high pressure centered near the srn Appalachians will
keep breezy northeast flow along the coast and scattered onshore
moving showers from the Atlantic along the east coast. Substantial
mid level drying will limit showers as they progress inland with 20
percent across well inland areas into the afternoon. Expect more
sunshine than recent days with highs into the lower 80s Volusia
coast to the mid 80s interior and srn sections.

Friday-Saturday...High pressure over the southeastern U.S. will keep
East Central Florida in a deep layer onshore flow.  Local airmass
will moisten in the low levels somewhat on Friday as a region of
enhanced moisture advects in off the Atlantic.  Higher rain chances
favor coastal areas due to the continued onshore flow with chances
decreasing farther inland. Have the Treasure Coast at 40% extending
back through Okeechobee where the best moisture will be.  Farther
north 30% with only 20% over the far interior.  A tight pressure
gradient will also result in breezy conditions.  For Friday night
into Saturday, shower activity should stay confined to coastal
areas.

Significantly drier air above 700 mb begins to filter into the area
overnight Friday into Saturday greatly reducing rain chances.  Still
cannot rule out a shower for coastal areas with the deep onshore
flow continuing and only carrying a slight chance from Brevard
northward mainly along the coast.  Carrying chance (30%) PoPs with a
slight chance of a thunderstorm farther south as some higher
moisture begins to return late Saturday afternoon.  Breezy
conditions will continue.

Sun-Tue...Mean-layer ridging shifts into the Atlantic as a sharp
trough and its associated surface front moves through the deep
south. Low-level winds veer southerly, drawing deeper moisture back
into the region, with a corresponding increase in PoPs expected.
Both the GFS and ECMWF show the front moving swiftly through the
area by the middle of next week, though there still remains some
difference in timing. Regardless, an increase in available moisture
and instability portend higher PoPs and a renewed chance for
isolated thunderstorms. Temps look to climb above normal ahead of
the front, mid-upper 80s expected then cooling temps behind the
front Tue Night into Wed with dry weather and pleasant temperatures
as drier air begins to work into east central FL.

&&

.AVIATION...
Showers have shifted further south through the afternoon with most
shower activity expected to linger in KMLB-KSUA corridor through the
night with isold/sct SHRA moving onshore. Mainly VFR conds expected
outside of shower activity into Wed morning.

&&

.MARINE...
Tonight...NE winds to 20-25 knots across the central/nrn waters will
decrease some toward morning. Small craft advisory continues with
seas to 9-10 ft offshore and 6-8 ft near shore making for hazardous
boating conditions.

Thu...NE winds to 20 knots nrn and central waters and 15 knots
across the srn waters will keep seas elevated. Small craft
advisories continue into Thu aftn and will likely be extended for
portions of the waters for portions of the waters into Friday.

Fri-Sun (slightly modified previous)...Persistent period of onshore
flow will continue for late week and into the upcoming weekend
making conditions hazardous for small craft operation. Seas 5-7 feet
become common with seas occasionally up to 8 feet offshore. Winds
easterly increasing to near 15-20 kts nearshore and around 20 kts
offshore into the weekend.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
The middle and upper Saint Johns River basin remains in flood with
only a slight decrease in river levels forecast over the next
several days.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DAB  70  82  74  83 /  20  40  30  30
MCO  69  87  71  86 /  20  20  10  20
MLB  73  86  76  84 /  20  30  30  30
VRB  73  85  75  84 /  30  30  30  40
LEE  66  86  70  87 /  20  20  10  20
SFB  69  86  71  86 /  20  30  20  30
ORL  69  87  71  86 /  20  20  10  20
FPR  72  85  75  84 /  30  30  30  40

&&

.MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...None.
AM...Small Craft Advisory until 4 PM EDT Thursday for Flagler Beach
     to Volusia-Brevard County Line 0-20 nm-Flagler Beach to
     Volusia-Brevard County Line 20-60 nm-Sebastian Inlet to
     Jupiter Inlet 0-20 nm-Sebastian Inlet to Jupiter Inlet 20-
     60 nm-Volusia-Brevard County Line to Sebastian Inlet 0-20
     nm-Volusia-Brevard County Line to Sebastian Inlet 20-60 nm.

&&

$$

Volkmer/Cristaldi/Combs


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