Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Melbourne, FL

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FXUS62 KMLB 221250
AFDMLB

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Melbourne FL
850 AM EDT Thu Jun 22 2017

.DISCUSSION...Stratus that has developed across the interior,
near to west of the I-4 corridor early this morning will break up
into mid to late morning as daytime heating continues, with skies
generally partly sunny across the area into the afternoon. A deep
S/SE flow will continue across the region and models indicate a
drier airmass gradually building in from the east through today.
Morning sounding from the Cape already shows significantly drier
air in the mid levels with PW lowering to 1.6 inches. This
combined with warmer than normal temps aloft, around -5C at 500mb,
should continue below normal rain chances today. Greatest chance
for afternoon showers and storms will be across the interior into
mid to late afternoon, with coverage ranging from isolated to
scattered. Drier air in the mid levels could produce some gusty
downburst winds with any stronger storms.

Less cloud cover and expected lower convective coverage should
allow highs to reach in the lower 90s with a few mid 90s possible
inland. Heat indices should be able to reach 100 to 105 across
much of the area.

&&

.AVIATION...Stratus across the interior TAF sites, producing
IFR/MVFR cigs will break up and lift into mid to late morning.
Tempo IFR/MVFR conditions will then be possible with any isolated
to scattered showers and storms that will mainly form across the
interior along and ahead of the east coast sea breeze. Will
continue VCTS for now due to expected lower than normal coverage.


&&

.MARINE...
Today...High pressure ridge axis remains north of the waters and
pressure gradient will support southeast winds 10-15 knots. Seas
3 to 4 feet will be a combination of a small east swell and a
choppy wind wave. Isolated showers over the Gulf stream this
morning will diminish and convection will focus mainly on the
peninsula and shift westward away from the east coast.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DAB  90  74  89  75 /  20  10  10  10
MCO  92  74  92  75 /  30  10  10  10
MLB  90  77  88  77 /  10  10  10  10
VRB  90  75  89  74 /  10  10  10  10
LEE  93  76  93  76 /  40  30  10  10
SFB  92  74  92  76 /  30  10  10  10
ORL  92  74  92  76 /  30  10  10  10
FPR  90  75  89  73 /  10  10  20  10

&&

.MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...None.
AM...None.
&&

$$

Weitlich/Glitto


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