Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Melbourne, FL

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FXUS62 KMLB 140755
AFDMLB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MELBOURNE FL
355 AM EDT MON JUL 14 2014

.DISCUSSION...

TODAY-TONIGHT...
A SHORT WAVE TROF THAT EXTENDING FROM THE DAKOTAS TO THE CANADIAN
MARITIMES WILL DEEPEN AS A 100KT COUPLED JET OVER THE GREAT LAKES
ROUNDS ITS BASE AND BEGINS TO LIFT NE. THIS DEEPENING TROF HAS
NUDGED THE AXIS OF THE ATLC RIDGE BACK INTO THE CENTRAL PENINSULA...
RESULTING IN A DEEP SRLY FLOW FLOW ACRS THE CWA.

WITH THE RIDGE OVERHEAD...MID/UPR LVLS ARE DISPLAYING LITTLE ENERGY.
H30-H20 LYR IS WEAKLY CONVERGENT WITH WINDS AOB 25KTS...AND THE VORT
FIELDS SHOW LITTLE ORGANIZATION THRU THE H85-H30 LYR. LCL TEMP
PROFILE REMAINS WEAKLY UNSTABLE WITH H70 TEMPS ARND 9C...H50 TEMPS
ARND -7C...YIELDING MAX LAPSE RATES THRU THE H85-H50 LYR ARND
6.0C/KM.

WHILE THE EVENING SOUNDINGS SHOW NO DISCERNIBLE MID LVL CAP...THE
RELATIVELY WARM H70 TEMPS AND LACK OF MID/UPR LVL DYNAMIC SUPPORT
SUGGESTING DIURNAL CONVECTION WILL BE DELAYED UNTIL THE CONVECTIVE
TRIGGER TEMPS ARE REACHED...WHICH WILL NOT OCCUR UNTIL EARLY AFTN.
FURTHERMORE...THE AIRMASS REMAINS FAR FROM SATURATED WITH H100-H70
MEAN RH VALUES ARND 75PCT...H85-H50 VALUES ARND 60PCT WITH
NOTEWORTHY POCKETS OF DRY AIR.

ONCE AGAIN...STRONG DOWNBURST POTENTIAL WILL BE PRESENT. CONVECTION
WILL BE FOCUSED MAINLY WEST OF I-95 AS THE WEAK SFC PGRAD WILL ALLOW
EAST COAST SEA BREEZE TO DVLP EARLY AND PUSH WELL INLAND. THIS WILL
KEEP TEMPS IN THE U80S (BLO THEIR CONVECTIVE TRIGGERS) WHILE THE
SRLY STEERING FLOW PUSHES STORMS NWD. SEABREEZE/MESOSCALE BOUNDARY
MERGERS EXPECTED ALONG THE I-4 CORRIDOR N OF THE BEACHLINE
EXPRESSWAY BY LATE AFTN/EARLY EVNG AND MAY GENERATE TSRAS WITH FQNT
CG LTG...VERY HEAVY RAIN...AND WIND GUSTS ARND 50MPH.

NO CHANGE IN AIRMASS WILL RESULT IN A SIMILAR TEMP PROFILE AS WAS
SEE OVER THE WEEKEND. EAST COAST SEA BREEZE FORMATION BY MIDDAY WILL
KEEP COASTAL MAX TEMPS IN THE U80S...INTERIOR WARMING INTO THE L90S.
SFC DEWPOINTS IN THE L/M70S WILL KEEP MIN TEMPS A FEW DEG ABV AVG.

TUE-WED...
ATLANTIC HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE DROPS SOUTH INTO THE FLORIDA STRAITS
AND CUBA AS AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH DIGS DOWN INTO THE EASTERN U.S.
AND PUSHES A COLD FRONT INTO THE SOUTHEAST STATES AND WHICH STALLS
OVER NORTH FLORIDA. THIS WILL PRODUCE A DEEP SOUTHWEST FLOW THAT
WILL PULL GULF OF MEXICO MOISTURE ACROSS THE PENINSULA. THE MOISTURE
LEVELS ARE HIGH ENOUGH TO PRODUCE SCATTERED...40 TO 50 POP OF...
AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS EACH DAY. THE SOUTHWEST FLOW
WILL BE DEEP AND STRONG ENOUGH TO MOST LIKELY NEGATE EAST COAST SEA
BREEZE FORMATION OR CONFINE ANY SEA BREEZE TO THE IMMEDIATE COAST.
THE CLOUD COVER WILL HELP TO LIMIT HIGHS TO THE LOW 90S.

THU...
SURFACE/LOW LEVEL RIDGE AXIS REMAINS TO THE SOUTH AND MAINTAINS THE
DEEP BRISK SOUTHWEST FLOW OVER EAST CENTRAL FLORIDA. DEEP MOISTURE
APPEARS TO BE SLIGHTLY LESS THAN TUE AND WED BUT SUFFICIENT ENOUGH
TO PRODUCE SCATTERED...30 TO 40 POP...SHOWERS AND STORMS. HIGHS IN
THE LOW 90S.

FRI-SUN...
UPPER LEVEL TROUGHING LIFTS NORTH ALLOWING THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE TO
RE ESTABLISH ITSELF OVER FLORIDA. THE SURFACE RIDGE SHIFTS NORTH
BACK OVER CENTRAL FLORIDA. THE DEEP BRISK SOUTHWEST FLOW BEGINS TO
RELAX FRI BUT STILL WILL BE STRONG ENOUGH TO KEEP STORMS CONFINED TO
THE EAST SIDE OF CENTRAL FLORIDA. LIGHT LOW LEVEL WIND FIELD ON SAT
AND SUN WILL ALLOW BOTH THE EAST AND WEST COAST SEA BREEZES TO FORM
AND PUSH INLAND WITH AN AFTERNOON COLLISION MOST LIKELY OVER THE
INTERIOR THIRD OF CENTRAL FLORIDA. HIGHS IN THE LOW 90S.

&&

.AVIATION...
THRU 14/14Z...VFR...S SFC WNDS AOB 5KTS. BTWN 14/14Z-14/16Z...
COASTAL SFC WNDSHFT FM S TO E AOB 12KTS ASSOCD WITH THE EAST COAST
SEA BREEZE. BTWN 14/16Z-14/20Z...EAST COAST SEA BREEZE ADVANCING TO
VCNTY OF KSFB-KMCO-KOBE WITH SFC WNDSHFT TO SE BLO 10KTS...COASTAL
SITES SLGT CHC IFR TSRAS DVLPG ALNG THE SEA BREEZE BNDRY MVG N ARND
10KTS...INTERIOR SITES VFR. BTWN 14/20Z-14/24Z...SCT IFR TSRAS/ISOLD
LIFR +TSRAS MVG N/NW ARND 10KTS. BTWN 15/00Z-15/03Z...SCT IFR TSRAS
W OF KMLB-KOBE...SLGT CHC IFR TSRAS E OF KMLB-KOBE. AFT 14/03Z...VFR
ALL SITES.

&&

.MARINE...
TODAY-TONIGHT...C-MAN/DATA BUOY OBS MEASURING SRLY WINDS AOB 10KTS
AND 2-3FT SEAS...MOST OF WHICH IS DUE TO AN ERLY SWELL. THE ATLC SFC
RIDGE AXIS HAS REPOSITIONED ITSELF OVER THE CENTRAL FL PENINSULA...
WHICH WILL MAINTAIN A LIGHT TO GENTLE S/SE BREEZE AREAWIDE...
NEARSHORE WINDS SHIFTING TO THE E BY MIDDAY WITH THE FORMATION OF
THE EAST COAST SEA BREEZE. SEAS 2-3FT WITH DOMINANT PDS BTWN 8-9SEC.

TUE-FRI...SOUTHWEST WINDS 10 TO 15 KNOTS OR LESS WITH SEAS 1 TO 3
FEET NEARSHORE AND 2 TO 4 FEET WELL OFFSHORE AND IN THE GULF STREAM.
STEERING WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO PUSH AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING
STORMS WEST TO EAST OVER THE MAINLAND AND INTO THE NEARSHORE WATERS
THIS WILL MAKE AFTERNOON AND EVENING BOATING A BIT OF A CHALLENGE ON
THE NEARSHORE WATERS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DAB  90  75  92  76 /  40  30  50  40
MCO  92  75  93  75 /  50  30  50  40
MLB  89  76  91  76 /  40  20  50  40
VRB  89  75  90  75 /  30  20  50  30
LEE  93  76  93  77 /  50  30  50  40
SFB  93  76  94  76 /  50  30  50  40
ORL  93  76  94  77 /  50  30  50  40
FPR  88  74  90  74 /  30  20  50  30

&&

.MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
AM...NONE.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM/AVIATION...BRAGAW
LONG TERM/IMPACT WX...WIMMER





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