Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Twin Cities, MN

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000
FXUS63 KMPX 290837
AFDMPX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
337 AM CDT WED JUL 29 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 330 AM CDT WED JUL 29 2015

ONLY CONCERN IS HOW HIGH WILL THE WIND GUSTS GET TODAY AS A
POWERFUL SUMMER STORM SYSTEM MOVES ACROSS THE CANADIAN PRAIRIES.
TUESDAY AFTN WIND GUSTS WERE OVER 50 TO 60 MPH ACROSS WESTERN AND
CENTRAL ND WHICH IS VERY UNUSUAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR FOR
SYNOPTIC SCALE WINDS. ALTHOUGH THESE WINDS WILL NOT BE AS STRONG
IN MPX CWA...IT WILL BE STRONG ENOUGH TO WARRANT A WIND ADVISORY
TODAY. CURRENTLY THE WIND ADVISORY IS VALID FROM 10 AM TO 5 PM.
HOWEVER...WINDS HAVE ALREADY BEGUN TO GUSTS ABV 30 MPH NEAR
ALEXANDRIA AS OF 330 AM. THE STRONGEST WINDS AND THE BEST MOMENTUM
TRANSFER TO THE SFC WILL OCCUR SHORTLY AFTER SUNRISE...THRU ABOUT
2 PM. SOME OF THE TYPICAL AREAS OF WC MN WHERE WINDS ARE STRONG
NORMALLY...COULD GUST ABV 45 MPH AT TIMES DURING THE MID/LATE
MORNING. EXPECT A QUICK DECREASE IN THE WIND SPEEDS BY MID/LATE
AFTN WITH LIGHT WEST WINDS OVERNIGHT. NOT MUCH CLOUD COVER ALSO
WITH THE BULK OF THE MOISTURE REMAINING ACROSS NORTHERN MN TODAY.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 330 AM CDT WED JUL 29 2015

THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WITH SFC HIGH PRESSURE
WILL BE THE PREVAILING COMBINATION FOR THE END OF THE WORK WEEK.
THIS WILL PROMOTE WARM AND DRY CONDITIONS OVER THE AREA...WITH
HIGHS MAINLY IN THE LOW 80S BUT ALSO LOW RH VALUES WITH DEWPOINTS
GENERALLY IN THE UPPER 50S.

SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...THE AFOREMENTIONED PATTERN BREAKS DOWN
A BIT LATE SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY AS A CLIPPER-TYPE SYSTEM DRIVES
SEWD FROM WRN CANADA. THE PRONOUNCED ERN NOAM TROF WITH A WRN NOAM
RIDGE WILL FORCE A COMPACT LOW PRES CENTER FROM MAKING A PROLONGED
STAY IN THE UPR MISS RIVER VALLEY...BUT IT LOOKS TO BE JUST ENOUGH
TO BRING SCTD SHWRS/TSTMS TO MUCH OF THE CWFA SAT NIGHT BEFORE
EXITING EARLY SUN MRNG. A MORE ORGANIZED SYSTEM LOOKS TO HAVE
SLOWER PROGRESS ACRS THE REGION MON AND MON NIGHT...AS THIS SYSTEM
WILL HAVE BETTER UPR LVL SUPPORT FROM WHICH TO DRAW LIFT AND
DYNAMICS. THIS SYSTEM WILL EXIT TO THE SE MON NIGHT INTO TUE BUT
ITS TRAILING SFC FRONT MAY STALL OUT NEAR THE IA/MN BORDER...
ALLOWING FOR ADDITIONAL PRECIPITATION CHANCES OVER SRN PORTIONS OF
THE AREA GOING INTO THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. TEMPERATURES WILL
HAVE LITTLE VARIATION FROM THE WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. HIGHS
WILL RANGE FROM THE UPR 70S TO THE LWR 80S WITH CONTINUED MILD
DEWPOINTS IN THE MID 50S TO LWR 60S.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1155 PM CDT TUE JUL 28 2015

OTHER THAN HIGH CLOUDS STREAMING OVERHEAD INTO SERN MN AND WRN WI
THROUGH EARLY OVERNIGHT...SKC EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD. WEST
WINDS WILL REMAIN 10-15 KT TONIGHT...BUT WILL STRENGTHEN TO 20-25
KT AND GUST TO 30-35 KT BY MID MORNING WEDNESDAY.

KMSP...NO ADDITIONAL CONCERNS.

/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/
THU...VFR. WIND W 10-15 KT.
FRI...VFR. WIND NW 10 KT.
SAT...VFR. WIND SW AT 5-10 KT.

&&

.MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...WIND ADVISORY FROM 10 AM THIS MORNING TO 5 PM CDT THIS AFTERNOON
     FOR MNZ041>045-047>052-054>059-064>066-073.

WI...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JLT
LONG TERM...JPC
AVIATION...BORGHOFF



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