Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Twin Cities, MN
Issued by NWS Twin Cities, MN
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988 FXUS63 KMPX 110842 AFDMPX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Twin Cities/Chanhassen MN 342 AM CDT Sat May 11 2024 .KEY MESSAGES... - Severe/extreme geomagnetic storm continues this weekend, but increased mid level cloud cover will make viewing tonight a little more difficult than early this morning. - Sunny and warm spring weather this weekend with highs in the 70s today and 80s on Sunday. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 342 AM CDT Sat May 11 2024 The G5/G4 geomagnetic storm has produced incredible displays of the northern lights all the way down into south Florida overnight. That is incredible. Most of the nation is experiencing clear skies early this morning, but satellite features mid level clouds beginning to sink south to the US/Canadian border. Some increase will occur during the day and could obscure round two of the northern lights tonight. Synoptically-speaking, a system will traverse southern Canada this weekend and bring a warm front through later today. Highs today will be similar to Friday`s, but could touch 80 over western MN where the warm front should reach this afternoon. Dew points will remain low and RH is expected to drop into the 20s, setting up another elevated fire weather day. Winds will be light, so not expecting critical conditions. A cold front will approach central MN midday on Sunday while thermal ridging encompasses the region. 925 mb temps on the order of +22 to +25C signal highs in the mid to upper 80s are appearing likely. Despite higher dew points, the warmer temperatures will result in RH dropping into the 20s again. Even with that, some uncapped surface-based instability should form in the afternoon ahead of the front. A few storms could develop across southern MN and WI late int he day and linger into the early evening before the front clears to the south. Cooler air will follow for most of next week. A short wave will push across the northern U.S. midweek and bring increased PoPs. Rain amounts will remain light. Predictability decreases late week, but the existence of several weak waves could bring chances for periodic showers. && .AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY/... Issued at 1211 AM CDT Sat May 11 2024 Clear skies tonight. Some mid level clouds increase Saturday. Light westerly winds turning south Saturday evening. KMSP...No concerns. /OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/ SUN...VFR. Wind W 10-15G25kts BCMG N 10-15kts. MON...VFR. Wind NNE 10-15kts. TUE...VFR. Wind E at 5-10kts && .MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MN...None. WI...None. && $$ DISCUSSION...Borghoff AVIATION...Borghoff