Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Twin Cities, MN

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FXUS63 KMPX 240027

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Twin Cities/Chanhassen MN
627 PM CST Tue Jan 23 2018

.UPDATE...For 00z Aviation discussion below


.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Wednesday)
Issued at 145 PM CST Tue Jan 23 2018

The main short term concern is clouds trends.

Band of low clouds remains over western MN this afternoon, ahead
of a developing warm front over the Dakotas. This area of clouds
is expected to move and develop eastward tonight brining mostly
cloudy conditions to the region. There may a bit of light fog as
well as it moves over the state. Other than that, temperatures
will drop off into the teens most areas with some single digits to
the east before cloud envelop that region. Readings Wednesday may
be tempered somewhat and will be dependent on cloud and snow

.LONG TERM...(Wednesday night through Tuesday)
Issued at 145 PM CST Tue Jan 23 2018

The main long term trends continue to indicate a warming trend
into the weekend. Then cold front progged over the area cooling
the region into early next week.

The flow pattern is becoming more progressive with a series of
frontal passages. We should warm as heights aloft rise for the
remainder of the week, with readings warming into the 40s for much
of the area Friday. It appears the initial cold front(more Pacific
origin) moves through the area Saturday and could bring in a
small chance of snow Saturday night/Sunday. The main issue will be
for much cooler air and brisk northwest winds for Sunday as the
upper trough moves over the area into Monday.

Following that, the faster west/east flow continues with a
warming trend indicated again into midweek.


.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Wednesday evening)
Issued at 628 PM CST Tue Jan 23 2018

MVFR ceilings over western MN will gradually expand eastward
across the area overnight, with IFR cigs becoming possible as
well. Meanwhile, another pocket of MVFR stratus currently over
west central WI (affecting KEAU), will shift east of the site this
evening and give them a period of time with VFR conditions before
the next batch moves in from the west. The stratus deck will
linger through much of Wednesday, with most sites not seeing VFR
until at least mid to late afternoon. Winds will be light
west/southwest through the period.

Have delayed the arrival of MVFR cigs, which now look to arrive
after 08z Wed. After onset, medium-high confidence in ceilings
below 1800 feet through at least 18z Wednesday.

Thu...Chc MVFR/IFR cigs. Winds SE 5-10 kts.
Fri...Mainly VFR. Winds S-SW 5-15 kts.
Sat...VFR. Winds W 5-10 kts.




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