Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Nashville, TN

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FXUS64 KOHX 222335
AFDOHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE TN
635 PM CDT FRI AUG 22 2014

.UPDATE...ADDED AVIATION SECTION FOR 00Z TAF`S.

&&

.AVIATION...BNA/CKV/CSV...A BROAD AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS
SITUATED OVER THE REGION THIS EVENING, BRINGING HOT, HUMID
WEATHER TO MIDDLE TENNESSEE. POP`S TONIGHT AND TOMORROW REMAIN
LOW, SO WILL LEAVE PRECIPITATION OUT OF THE TAF`S THIS ISSUANCE.
THERE IS A POSSIBILITY OF RADIATION FOG LATE TONIGHT AT CKV AND
CSV. OTHERWISE, LOOK FOR VFR WX AND GENERALLY LIGHT WINDS.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 319 PM CDT FRI AUG 22 2014/

DISCUSSION...

HOT AND HUMID CONDITIONS TODAY AS HIGH PRESSURE RULES THE ROOST.  A
FEW SHOWERS ARE POPPING UP AROUND THE MID-STATE AT FORECAST TIME DUE
TO AN OUTFLOW BOUNDARY THAT SLID SOUTHWARD THROUGH KY INTO NORTHERN
TN THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS.  THE LIFT HAS BEEN MEAGER AT BEST DUE
TO THE FACT THAT THIS BOUNDARY IS NOT VERY DEEP AND THE WARM, MOIST
AIR PARCELS ARE HAVING A DIFFICULT TIME GETTING TO THE LFC.  IF WE
CAN GET ONE OR TWO OF THESE STORMS TO BREAK THROUGH...WE MIGHT SEE A
LITTLE BETTER CONVECTIVE COVERAGE LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND THROUGH
THE EARLY EVENING HOURS...BUT THIS WILL LIKELY BE THE MOST WE SEE.
FOR TONIGHT...WE WILL REMAIN WARM AND MUGGY WITH TEMPERATURES
STRUGGLING TO GET OUT OF THE MIDDLE 70S FOR MOST.

A SLIGHT PATTERN CHANGE WILL OCCUR AS WE MOVE THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
THE RIDGE RESPONSIBLE FOR THESE SEASONABLE WARM TEMPERATURES WILL
AMPLIFY INTO THE GREAT LAKES...PUTTING MIDDLE TENNESSEE INTO THE
EASTERN PERIPHERY OF THE RIDGE...ALLOWING FOR SOME LOWER HEIGHTS TO
WORK INTO THE AREA.  THIS BREAKDOWN OF THE RIDGE ALOFT...COUPLED
WITH A BACKDOOR FRONT SLIPPING IN FROM THE NORTHEAST WILL INCREASE
POPS ACROSS THE STATE SATURDAY AND SUNDAY.  COVERAGE SHOULD NOT BE TO
THE POINT OF A WASHOUT.  BEST CHANCES WILL BE EAST OF INTERSTATE
65...AND ANY STORM THAT FORMS WILL CARRY A CHANCE OF PRODUCING
STRONG WINDS AND SMALL HAIL.  KEEP THIS IN MIND IF YOU WILL BE
OUTSIDE THIS WEEKEND.  BECAUSE OF THE INCREASED POPS...I HAVE ALSO
RUN AFTERNOON HIGHS A FEW DEGREES BELOW MOS THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
DON`T BE FOOLED THOUGH.  IT WILL STILL BE PLENTY WARM AND WITH DEW
POINTS IN THE LOW 70S...HEAT INDEX VALUES WILL STILL RUN INTO THE
TRIPLE DIGITS EACH AFTERNOON...ESPECIALLY FOR AREAS WEST OF THE
PLATEAU.

AS WE MOVE INTO THE START OF NEXT WEEK...THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE
SHOULD GAIN A NE-SW TILT TO IT BUT IT WILL REMAIN OVERHEAD.  THIS
WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES IN THE 90S FOR THE MOST PART AND KEEP AT
LEAST A SLIGHT CHANCE TO CHANCE POP IN THE FORECAST.

EXTENDED GUIDANCE IS COMING INTO SLIGHTLY BETTER AGREEMENT THAT A
SHORTWAVE WILL DEVELOP ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS BY THE MIDDLE OF
NEXT WEEK AND PUSH A COLD FRONT INTO THE SOUTHEAST. COOLER
TEMPERATURES WILL LIKELY ENSUE...BUT THE TIMING OF THIS FRONT IS
STILL IN GREAT QUESTION...WITH THE GFS CARRYING A WED-THU PASSAGE
AND THE EURO SUGGESTING AN END OF THE WORKWEEK PASSAGE.  DUE TO THE
EURO TYPICALLY HANDLING THE LONG RANGE A LITTLE BETTER...WILL LEAN
TOWARDS THIS SOLUTION AND HANG ONTO THE WARMER TEMPERATURES THROUGH
WEDNESDAY OR THURSDAY.

UNGER

AVIATION...18Z TAF DISCUSSION.

VFR CONDITIONS GENERALLY EXPECTED THRU 23/18Z PER RIDGING
INFLUENCES SFC/ALOFT. SOME MVFR CKV TO MVFR/IFR FOG INDUCED VSBYS
CSV PER LOW LEVEL MOISTURE POOLING. UPPER LEVEL RIDGING INFLUENCES
WILL MOVE SLOWLY WWD DURING PERIOD...ALLOWING FOR ADDITIONAL LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE INFLUX INTO MID STATE... AND ALONG WITH A BACKDOOR
FRONT MOVING INTO AT LEAST ERN PORTIONS OF MID STATE AFTER
23/12Z...ALONG WITH THE INITIATION OF DIURNAL HEATING
AFFECTS...EXPECT SCT SHWRS/TSTMS DEVELOPMENT AROUND CKV/CSV AT OR
AFTER 23/15Z. WITH EXACT PINPOINT LOCATION DEVELOPMENT
UNCERTAIN...WILL MENTION VCTS REMARKS ONLY AT CKV/CSV.

&&

.OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

ROSE



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