Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Nashville, TN

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FXUS64 KOHX 021211
AFDOHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE TN
711 AM CDT THU JUL 2 2015

.AVIATION UPDATE...

12Z TAF DISCUSSION.

NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE ACROSS AREA AIRPORTS
THIS MORNING GENERALLY ALONG AND NORTH OF AN OUTFLOW BOUNDARY.
TSRA WILL DIMINISH AT AIRPORTS FROM NW TO SE LATER THIS
MORNING...WITH ADDITIONAL BUT MORE SCATTERED ACTIVITY THIS
AFTERNOON WARRANTING VCTS/VCSH BEFORE DIMINISHING THIS EVENING.
MVFR/VFR CIGS WITH IFR/MVFR VIS ANTICIPATED MUCH OF THE TAF
PERIOD...WITH GENERALLY LIGHT SOUTHWEST WINDS LESS THAN 10 KTS.

SHAMBURGER

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 220 AM CDT THU JUL 2 2015/

DISCUSSION...
FOR NOW AM GOING TO HOLD OFF ON ISSUING A FLASH FLOOD WATCH BUT
ITS GOING TO BE CLOSE AND MAY BE NEEDED LATER DEPENDING ON HOW
CONVECTION EVOLVES OVER TIME. WILL ISSUE AN SPS SHORTLY ADDRESSING
THE LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL.

ONGOING STORMS MAKING FOR A BUSY MID WATCH. AT 07Z THUNDERSTORMS
WITH LOCALLY HEAVY DOWNPOURS ARE CONCENTRATED ALONG AND EAST OF
INTERSTATE 24 AND WILL CONTINUE TO PUSH EAST OVER THE NEXT FEW
HOURS WITH A REPRIEVE OVER WESTERN AREAS AT LEAST FOR AWHILE THIS
MORNING. COMPLEX OUT OF SOUTHERN MISSOURI LOOKS TO BE SPLITTING
WITH ONE AREA NOW WORKING ACROSS FAR SOUTHERN ILLINOIS INTO FAR
WESTERN KENTUCKY. THIS AREA LOOKS HAVE A MORE EASTWARD COMPONENT
WHICH SHOULD TAKE IT THROUGH WFO PADUCAHS AREA AND EVENTUALLY
ACROSS SOUTHERN KENTUCKY. QPF GUIDANCE NUMBERS ARE ON THE ORDER
OF 2.5 INCHES OVER A 3 HOUR PERIOD BUT AREAS OVER NORTHWESTERN
MIDDLE TENNESSEE COULD USE A LITTLE RAIN AS CLARKSVILLE ENDING
JUNE NEARLY TWO AND HALF INCHES BELOW NORMAL FOR THE MONTH. SO
THOSE FOLKS ARE GLAD TO BE GETTING THE RAIN.

UPPER TROUGH WILL REMAIN INSITU NEXT SEVERAL DAYS WITH STATIONARY
SURFACE FRONT WEST TO EAST JUST OUR NORTH ALONG THE OHIO RIVER
BACK INTO A LOW IN CENTRAL KANSAS. A SERIES OF DISTURBANCES WILL
WORK DOWN THE BACK SIDE OF UPPER TROUGH KEEPING SHOWER AND
THUNDERSTORMS IN THE FORECAST RIGHT ON THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF
THE WORK WEEK INTO THE WEEKEND. GOOD NEWS IS THAT THERE WILL BE NO
MAJOR HEAT WAVES IN THE NEAR FUTURE AS CLOUDS AND RAIN CHANCES
WILL KEEP DAYTIME HIGHS BELOW SEASONAL NORMALS WITH NIGHTTIME LOWS
AROUND NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF THE YEAR. BY LATE NEXT WEEK UPPER
PATTERN FLATTENS OUT A BIT AND BECOMES A LITTLE MORE ZONAL BUT
DISTURBANCES CONTINUE TO WORK THROUGH THE WESTERLIES RIGHT INTO
NEXT WEEKEND.

CLIMATE...CALENDAR RAINFALL RECORD JULY 2ND IN NASHVILLE IS 2.02
INCHES IN 1913.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
NASHVILLE      81  69  82  67 / 100  80  60  50
CLARKSVILLE    81  67  81  67 / 100  80  60  40
CROSSVILLE     76  65  76  66 / 100  80  70  60
COLUMBIA       82  71  83  69 / 100  80  60  60
LAWRENCEBURG   80  71  81  68 / 100  80  60  60
WAVERLY        80  68  81  70 / 100  80  70  50

&&

.OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

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