Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Nashville, TN

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FXUS64 KOHX 191935
AFDOHX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Nashville TN
235 PM CDT Thu Oct 19 2017

.DISCUSSION...

It`s another fantastic day across the mid-state.  Around normal
temperatures, low dew points and not a cloud in the sky.  Tonight
will be a couple of degrees cooler than last night and those around
bodies of water should experience fog once again tomorrow morning.

I could probably copy and paste yesterday`s discussion instead of
recreating the wheel here, but that wouldn`t be fair now, would it?
Seriously, the forecast hasn`t changed much at all since yesterday.
I think the only thing of note I did change was to push BNA to 80 on
Saturday, but that`s about it.  Timing on the Sunday`s rain remains
just about the same, with some breaking into our far western
counties late Sunday afternoon and the bulk of the precipitation
coming overnight Sunday into Monday.  There was some wavering in the
Euro`s timing for the precip in the 00Z run last night, but it`s
right back where it was yesterday with today`s 12Z run, so that
lends a lot of confidence for this forecast.  For this reason, I`m
going to hold onto the 80 PoP for Sunday night.  As far as intensity
of the thunderstorms, I`m still in the same camp as yesterday --
just general thunderstorms -- but interestingly enough, the 12Z GFS
forecast soundings are showing temperatures aloft a little cooler
than yesterday, but the only thing this would suggest is a little
more widespread thunder coverage.  Shear is still falling off as the
rain moves in, so organization should be fairly limited.  I still
like about 1 to 2 inches of rainfall area-wide throughout this
event, too, as precipitation is likely going to last through much of
the day on Monday.

After rains pull out of Middle TN Monday evening, look for cloudy
and much cooler temperatures to take over.  Models are still
indicating a large, amplified trough over the eastern half of the
U.S.  This will put us into a northwesterly flow aloft, leading to
our cooler and below average temperatures for much of next week.

&&

.AVIATION...
18Z TAF DISCUSSION.

A brief period of BR is possible near dawn at CKV and MQY
otherwise the taf period will be VFR with SKC. Winds will mainly
stay below 5 kts with a southerly component.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Nashville      46  78  52  80  60 /   0   0   0   0  10
Clarksville    45  76  50  78  59 /   0   0   0   0  20
Crossville     42  74  48  74  53 /   0   0   0   0   0
Columbia       42  77  50  79  58 /   0   0   0   0  10
Lawrenceburg   42  76  50  78  58 /   0   0   0   0  10
Waverly        46  76  53  77  61 /   0   0   0   0  20

&&

.OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION......Unger
AVIATION........Reagan



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