Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Nashville, TN

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548
FXUS64 KOHX 260702
AFDOHX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Nashville TN
202 AM CDT Mon Jun 26 2017

.DISCUSSION...

Clear and quiet at forecast time.  Temperatures have fallen off into
the upper 50s and low 60s and by the time everything is said and
done this morning, everybody should be in the 50s -- almost 10
degrees below normal for June -- and we`re not done with this
unseasonably cool weather just yet.

Mid-level clouds are going to build into the state this morning as
the first of two waves starts to affect Middle TN over the next 24
to 36 hours.  This first one will keep afternoon highs in the upper
70s (Plateau) and low 80s (elsewhere).  The second wave, due in here
tonight, will actually provide Middle TN with some rain.  I`ve been
scouring the forecast soundings and I just don`t see any reason to
add in thunder, so it does look like just rain.  These showers
should start moving into the NW around midnight tonight and wane
through the morning hours.  I don`t think everyone will see rain and
those that do, will likely see less than a quarter of an inch.
Rains should end for everyone before noon on Tuesday and skies
should begin to clear from north to south in the afternoon. Will
run a little above guidance for tonight lows and below guidance
for Tuesday`s highs, though Tuesday`s highs are going to greatly
depend on how quickly the sun makes its return.

The surface ridge behind Tuesday morning`s rain will enter and exit
the region quickly and by Wednesday afternoon, we`ll be in a
southerly return flow. This will bring temperatures back near
normal starting Wednesday and also bring the humidity back to the
air, so enjoy the drier air for the next couple of days because
summer is going to return soon.

Rain chances start to increase Thursday, albeit only a 15 PoP for
Thursday.  Better chances start Friday and will likely last through
the weekend as we begin a rather unsettled weather pattern.  I`m
still only going to carry a 40-50 PoP each day for scattered showers
and thunderstorms.  If I had to pick a day I thought would have the
best coverage, right now, I would say Sunday as it looks to be the
only day with some synoptic help in the way of a shortwave trough,
but my confidence is low on it at this time.  Mid to upper 80s look
to be the story for temperatures right through this time next
week.

&&

.AVIATION...
06Z TAF DISCUSSION.

Broad upper troughing will be in place through the taf period.
Initially, skies will be mostly clear. However, a weak series of
mid level impulses will bring some mid level cloudiness to the taf
areas aft 12z-15Z.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Nashville      83  61  82  58  88 /   0  30  10   0   0
Clarksville    79  59  80  57  85 /   0  30  10   0   0
Crossville     77  54  74  52  79 /   0  20  20   0   0
Columbia       82  59  82  57  86 /   0  30  10   0   0
Lawrenceburg   82  58  81  57  86 /   0  20  20   0   0
Waverly        80  59  81  58  87 /   0  30  10   0   0

&&

.OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION......Unger
AVIATION........21



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