Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Nashville, TN

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FXUS64 KOHX 291633
AFDOHX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Nashville TN
1133 AM CDT SUN MAY 29 2016

.UPDATE...
FOR 18Z AVIATION DISCUSSION.

&&

.DISCUSSION...

Warm and humid conditions are expected today. There will be more
sunshine than yesterday, allowing highs to climb several degrees
higher, especially for areas from I-65 to the Plateau that had
the most clouds and light showers yesterday. The main question for
today is thunderstorm potential. Although a weak high pressure is
overhead, the warmth and humidity will give enough instability for
the possibility of at least isolated thunderstorms. There are a
couple of other features to consider for pops. T.S. Bonnie,
approaching the SC coast, may add a little moisture and
convergence for the Plateau. Also, a weakening front/surface
trough will move in from the northwest. Although this feature is
weak, models show CAPE values pushing toward 2000 J/kg over our
northwest counties today. So, we will include 20 pops for BNA,
with pops around 30 percent for the Plateau and northwest. No
organized severe thunderstorms are expected, but a few could be
strong in the heat of the afternoon, especially over the
northwest.

For tonight, a few showers or storms may linger through sunset.
Otherwise, the night will be clear to partly cloudy. Lows will be
in the low to mid 60s.

Memorial Day through Tuesday will be like summer with warm (hot)
highs in the mid 80s to around 90. Fortunately, humidity levels
will be tolerable. Low level winds will be coming out of the
north, dropping dew points as low as the mid 50s during the
afternoon hours. An isolated thunderstorm cannot be completely
ruled out each afternoon, but models show sinking air and drying
through the atmosphere column, so we will post a dry forecast.
Tropical moisture will remain along the Carolina coast and should
not impact our area.

Moisture will start returning Wednesday as a trough deepens over
the plains and brings low level winds out of the south again.
This will bring a return to shower and thunderstorm chances
Wednesday. Pops will increase to "likely" heading into Thursday
as the trough axis approaches. Unsettled conditions will linger
into next weekend as the frontal zone stalls and an upper level
low cuts off back to our southwest.

&&

.AVIATION...
18Z TAF DISCUSSION.

A weak boundary will interact with increasing capes this
afternoon. Atm is quite dry though and the convection will be
isolated/scattered and short lived. Will opt to keep convection
out of the tafs for now. Aft 00z...the drier air will win out but
some mid level clouds will persist through 12z. Last 6 hrs of the
taf will be uneventful. Perhaps some brief early morning fog.
Otw...mostly clear skies expected.

&&

.OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION......11
AVIATION........21


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