Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Nashville, TN

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FXUS64 KOHX 262236
AFDOHX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Nashville TN
536 PM CDT Sun Mar 26 2017

.UPDATE...
FOR 00Z AVIATION DISCUSSION.

&&

.DISCUSSION...

A few showers continued in the east this afternoon as yesterday`s
storm system headed toward the Great Lakes. Otherwise it was
partly cloudy this afternoon and another warm and breezy
day...just not quite as warm and breezy as yesterday.

The forecast for this week centers on two storm systems...one
Monday and another one on Thursday. Both could bring strong to
severe thunderstorms to Middle TN.

The H5 low over the OK panhandle today will move toward the TN/OH
Valleys Monday. Some rain is possible Monday morning but the best
chance for thunderstorms will be in the afternoon and evening as
destabilization occurs due to increasing southerly surface winds,
slightly better low level moisture and daytime heating. Model
CAPEs are a little greater than what occurred yesterday and shear
profiles are favorable so we should see at least some severe
storms with damaging winds and hail.

Rain chances will diminish from west to east by Tuesday morning as
the weak upper level trough moves to the East Coast. Otherwise,
Tuesday and Wednesday will feature a weak upper level ridge and
drier weather. There isn`t much cooling behind the departing
system so daytime temps will continue to be above average both
days.

A large storm is expected to develop near the Four Corners on
Tuesday and Wednesday, then move into the central U.S. by
Thursday. This should be a deeper system with greater shear and
possibly greater instability, so it could pose a greater threat
of severe weather compared to recent storms.

Weather will improve Friday and Saturday as a weak H5 ridge moves
in behind the departing storm. Extended models show yet another
storm brewing in the Southwest U.S. late in the week. This new
storm could impact Middle TN by the end of next weekend.

&&

.AVIATION...
00Z TAF DISCUSSION.

BNA/CKV/CSV...It looks like we can expect a rain-free evening as
Middle Tennessee finds itself between weather systems. Weak
ridging has wedged itself between today`s earlier fropa and a
system brewing over the Plains that will affect the mid state
tomorrow afternoon and evening. So we can expect VFR wx tonight
and tomorrow morning, with convection developing mainly after 18Z
Monday, and likely not affecting the Cumberland plateau until
after 00Z.

&&

.OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION......49
AVIATION........08



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