Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Shreveport, LA

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000
FXUS64 KSHV 281744
AFDSHV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
1144 AM CST SAT FEB 28 2015

.AVIATION...
MOSTLY VFR OVC CIGS ACROSS CWA STILL HOLDING...ALTHOUGH CIGS
BEGINNING TO LOWER TO LOW VFR FROM THE WEST AT KTYR AND KLFK.
MEANWHILE...PERSISTENT VIRGA NEAR KTXK FROM MID LVL DECKS...WITH
THIS LGT PRECIP ALOFT LIKELY CLOSE TO EITHER SIDE OF FRZG LINE.
CIGS TO QUICKLY BEGIN TO LOWER TO MVFR ACROSS NE TX BY AROUND
01/00Z...AND LIKELY CONTINUE TO LOWER OVER NE TX TO IFR BY AROUND
01/06Z AS RAIN BEGINS TO INCREASE. ENTIRE CWA CLOUD BASES WILL
BEGIN TO LOWER OVERNIGHT...BECMG IFR WITH RAIN ACROSS ENTIRE CWA
BTWN 01/12-18Z. E-NE WINDS 5 TO 10 KTS...BECMG LIGHTER OVERNIGHT./VII/.


&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1051 AM CST SAT FEB 28 2015/

DISCUSSION...
PATCHY LIGHT RAIN AND FREEZING RAIN ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE CWA
ATTM. TEMPERATURES HAVE WARMED ABOVE FREEZING ALONG AND SOUTH OF
A EL DORADO ARKANSAS TO QUITMAN TEXAS LINE. THUS PORTIONS OF THE
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY NEEDS TO BE CANCELED. HOWEVER...WITH ONLY
ANOTHER HOUR OR SO REMAINING BEFORE EXPIRATION...WILL JUST LET
IT EXPIRE. BY THEN...MOST OF THE NORTHERN AREAS SHOULD CLIMB
ABOVE FREEZING. WILL HAVE WATCH MCCURTAIN AND SEVIER COUNTY
TEMPS...AS AN EXTENSION OF THE ADVISORY MAY BE NEEDED IF THE
LOWER ELEVATIONS TRAP THE COLD AIR INTO THE AFTERNOON. ALSO
CURRENT RAIN IN THE AREA MAY HAVE A SLIGHT WET BULB EFFECT.

REMAINDER OF THE FCST LOOKS OK. LIGHT RADAR RETURNS IN LOUISIANA
ZONES SHOULD ONLY BRING TRACE AMOUNTS...SO WILL LEAVE POPS AT 10
PERCENT IN THIS AREA. ZONE UPDATE WILL BE ISSUED SHORTLY BEFORE
NOON...PRIOR TO THE ADVISORY EXPIRATION. /14/

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 325 AM CST SAT FEB 28 2015/

DISCUSSION...
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY HAS BEEN EXTENDED THIS MORNING TO INCLUDE
HEMPSTEAD...MILLER...CASS...MARION...GREGG...AND HARRISON
COUNTIES. ADVISORY CONTINUES THROUGH NOON TODAY AS MOISTURE MOVES
NORTHEAST ACROSS MUCH OF NORTHEAST TEXAS AND INTO SOUTHWEST
ARKANSAS AND SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA. PRECIP TYPE NORTH OF INTERSTATE
30 REMAINS SNOW WITH AREAS SOUTH EXPERIENCING A MIX OF
RAIN...SLEET...AND FREEZING RAIN.

ALL PRECIPITATION TO TRANSITION TO RAIN LATER THIS MORNING AS
TEMPERATURES RISE ABOVE FREEZING. EXPECT A GRADUAL WARMING TREND
OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE
REGION SHIFTS EAST. HIGH TEMPERATURES ON SUNDAY TO CLIMB INTO THE 50S AND
LOWS IN THE 40S BY MONDAY MORNING.

A WET PATTERN TO CONTINUE ON SUNDAY AS SOUTHWEST FLOW OF MOISTURE
ALOFT OVERRUNS AN A RETREATING AREA OF COOL SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE.
ADDITIONAL SHOWERS RESULTING FROM UNSETTLED SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL
SUPPORT SHOWERS ON MONDAY AND TUESDAY AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT THAT
WILL PUSH EAST ACROSS THE REGION ON WEDNESDAY. COULD SEE
THUNDERSTORMS ASSOCIATED WITH THIS FRONT AS IT MOVES ACROSS THE
REGION.

CONDITIONS TO IMPROVE LATE IN THE WEEK AS DRY HIGH PRESSURE
RETURNS. HIGH TEMPERATURES BEHIND THE FRONT FORECAST TO CLIMB INTO
THE 40S AND 50S WITH LOWS IN THE 20S AND 30S.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV  49  43  57  47  54 /  20  40  60  60  60
MLU  52  43  59  47  53 /  10  30  60  60  60
DEQ  38  34  49  39  46 /  40  60  60  60  50
TXK  40  36  50  40  47 /  30  60  60  60  60
ELD  45  38  52  42  49 /  20  40  60  60  60
TYR  42  40  53  46  53 /  50  60  60  60  60
GGG  46  42  57  46  54 /  30  60  60  60  60
LFK  53  48  64  56  63 /  10  40  60  60  60

&&

.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL NOON CST TODAY FOR THE FOLLOWING
     ZONES: ARZ050-051-059-060-070.

LA...NONE.
OK...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL NOON CST TODAY FOR THE FOLLOWING
     ZONES: OKZ077.

TX...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL NOON CST TODAY FOR THE FOLLOWING
     ZONES: TXZ096-097-108>112-124>126-136>138.

&&

$$






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