Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Shreveport, LA

Home | Current Version | Previous Version | Text Only | Print | Product List | Glossary On
Versions: 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44 45 46 47 48 49 50
000
FXUS64 KSHV 232035
AFDSHV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
335 PM CDT TUE SEP 23 2014

.DISCUSSION...
LARGE SFC HIGH CENTERED OVER THE UPPER OH RIVER VALLEY WILL
CONTINUE TO DOMINATE THE REGION FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.
ALOFT...AN UPPER TROUGH CURRENTLY MOVING ACROSS THE NRN PLAINS
WILL FILL AND BECOME CUT OFF FROM THE WESTERLIES WHILE AN UPPER
RIDGE BUILDS AND AMPLIFIES OVER MUCH OF THE CONUS. THIS WILL KEEP
A GENERAL PERSISTENCE FCST GOING THROUGH THE END OF THE WORK WEEK.
A VERY DRY AIRMASS WILL REMAIN IN PLACE WHICH SHOULD LEAD TO
ANOTHER COOL NIGHT ACROSS MUCH OF THE CWA. MIN TEMPS TONIGHT
SHOULD BE NEAR OR POSSIBLY SLIGHTLY COOLER THAN LAST NIGHT. UPPER
40S WILL BE POSSIBLE IN THE OUACHITAS OF SE OK/SW AR. TEMPS WILL
SLOWLY WARM DURING THE LATTER HALF OF THE WEEK AS THE UPPER RIDGE
BUILDS.

A PATTERN CHANGE BEGINS ON FRIDAY. THE CUT OFF LOW WILL MEANDER
AND DRIFT AROUND THE MID MS VALLEY WHILE A NEW UPPER TROUGH
DEVELOPS OVER CNTRL TX. A STRONGER UPPER TROUGH OVER THE W COAST
WILL BEGIN TO MOVE NEWD KICKING THE TWO CNTRL TROUGHS LEADING THEM
TO OPENING AND MERGING WITH THE WESTERLIES. AS THE TX TROUGH
SLOWLY MOVES NEWD...IT WILL INTERACT WITH A STALLED FRONTAL
BOUNDARY ALONG THE GULF COAST WHICH SHOULD HELP TO ENHANCE RAIN
CHANCES BEGINNING ON SATURDAY. BEST CHANCES FOR SHWRS/TSTMS SHOULD
BE ON SUNDAY BUT THERE IS SOME TIMING DIFFERENCES WITH THE MODELS.
THE GFS IS MUCH SLOWER WITH THE TX TROUGH AND KEEPS RAIN CHANCES
IN THE AREA UNTIL TUESDAY. HAVE DECIDED TO SIDE WITH THE FASTER
ECMWF DUE TO BETTER CONSISTENCY WITH PREVIOUS FCST PACKAGES. AT
THIS TIME...IT APPEARS IF RAIN OCCURS IT WILL BE CONFINED MAINLY
TO LA/SRN AR.

MORE PROGRESSIVE AND FALL LIKE PATTERN LOOKS TO TAKE SHAPE EARLY
NEXT WEEK GENERALLY PROMOTING PERIODIC COLD FRONTS WHICH SHOULD
LEAD TO BETTER RAIN CHANCES AND TEMPS NEAR OR SLIGHTLY BELOW
CLIMO. /09/

&&

.AVIATION...
VFR FLIGHT CATEGORIES TO PREVAIL OVER THE TERMINAL SITES AND
AIRPORTS ACROSS THE FOUR STATE AREA THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD
ENDING 24/18Z. HIGH PRESSURE ON THE SURFACE AND ALOFT WILL BE
PROVIDING DRY CONDITIONS. MAINLY HIGH CLOUDS AROUND 25 KFT WILL BE
AFFECTING THE AREA...RANGING FROM SCATTERED TO BROKEN AT TIMES. A
FEW FAIR WEATHER CUMULUS MAY SPREAD WEST OVER THE AREA WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON AROUND 45 HND FEET. SURFACE WINDS WILL BE NORTHEAST TO
EAST 5 TO 10 KNOTS THROUGH 23/23Z...BECOMING LIGHT AND VARIABLE...
AND THEN MOSTLY EAST LESS THAN 8 KNOTS FOR WEDNESDAY AFTER 24/14Z.
/06/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV  56  86  61  88  63 /   0   0   0   0   0
MLU  53  85  60  88  62 /   0   0   0   0   0
DEQ  48  81  55  85  59 /   0   0   0   0   0
TXK  51  83  59  86  62 /   0   0   0   0   0
ELD  51  84  56  86  61 /   0   0   0   0   0
TYR  56  84  60  87  63 /   0   0   0   0   0
GGG  55  85  58  87  62 /   0   0   0   0   0
LFK  57  84  61  89  63 /   0   0   0   0   0

&&

.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
LA...NONE.
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$

09/06/05





USA.gov is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.