Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Shreveport, LA

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174
FXUS64 KSHV 112324
AFDSHV

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Shreveport LA
524 PM CST Mon Dec 11 2017

.AVIATION...
VFR conditions are expected throughout the TAF period. Southwest
winds have already started to decline as sunset draws near. Wind
speeds of 5-10 kts are expected overnight whilst a cold front
pushes across the region leading to a veering wind component to
the northwest. Wind speeds early-mid Tuesday morning will become
breezy with sustained speeds of 8-15 kts and gusts of 15-19 kts
are expected, though quickly declining by late aftn to 10 kts or
below. Otherwise, VFR CIGS will exit the region overnight leading
to SKC conditions.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 306 PM CST Mon Dec 11 2017/

SHORT TERM /Tonight through Tuesday/...

A cold front currently analyzed across Northwest Arkansas into
Southeast Oklahoma and North Central Texas will continue moving
south and east into the Four State Region this evening into the
overnight hours. Temperatures have warmed well into the 70s
areawide this afternoon and with post frontal conditions expected
overnight, there should be sufficient mixing to allow for another
cool night tonight but perhaps not as cold as if we had ideal
radiational cooling conditions expected as has been the case the
last several nights. Still, undercut MOS temperatures a few
degrees in a few locations to account for the dry airmass in place
as guidance has been running too warm with overnight low
temperatures lately

Stayed near to slightly warmer than MOS temperatures concerning
daytime highs on Tuesday as well. Northwest winds on Tuesday near 10
to 15 mph with some higher gusts in the morning from a tight
pressure gradient. 13

LONG-TERM /Tuesday Night through Monday/...

Colder air behind Tuesday`s cold front will push overnight lows back
into freezing territory for Wednesday morning. Winds will quickly
veer back SW during the day Wednesday and allow for a modest warm-up
as highs warm back into the lower to mid 60s. Another dry cold front
will arrive on Thursday with simply no moisture available with such
a brief period of return flow between fronts. Cooler temperatures on
Friday will be short-lived as southerly winds return in time for the
weekend. Increasing SW flow at the sfc and aloft by late Saturday
will present our best chance for rain during this forecast period.
This will be occurring ahead of another cold front shifting through
the Plains, tapping into Pacific moisture associated with an upper
disturbance near Baja. SW flow will help usher in more of this mid
and upper level moisture ahead of the cold front with the best rain
chances across the SE half of the region but have at least included
slight chance pops even over our NW zones. Rain chances will wrap up
from the NW to SE with frontal passage on Sunday through the evening
hours. A dry and mild forecast will prevail behind the front for the
new work week with temperatures running near to just slightly above
normal. 19

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV  39  59  34  63 /   0   0   0   0
MLU  41  59  32  60 /   0   0   0   0
DEQ  31  55  28  64 /   0   0   0   0
TXK  36  55  32  63 /   0   0   0   0
ELD  34  57  31  61 /   0   0   0   0
TYR  39  58  34  65 /   0   0   0   0
GGG  38  59  32  64 /   0   0   0   0
LFK  38  63  33  62 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...None.
LA...None.
OK...None.
TX...None.
&&

$$

29/13/19



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