Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Shreveport, LA

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000
FXUS64 KSHV 261931
AFDSHV

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Shreveport LA
231 PM CDT Wed Apr 26 2017

.DISCUSSION...
...Very heavy rainfall likely for this weekend across Arkansas
and Southeast Oklahoma...

Cold front accompanied by a line of severe TSTMS to continue
pushing E through Thursday morning. This front to push into MS and
SE TX by during Thursday with negative vorticity advection and
cold air advection clearing skies and rainfall from NW to SE
through late tonight behind the cold front.

For Thursday, expect quiet weather with a stable and dry airmass
behind the front. By Friday, another trough develops and deepens
over the four corners of the desert SW with a deep tropical
moisture fetch advecting N from the southern Gulf of Mexico into
the central U.S.

During this weekend, the trough slowly ejects E into the OK and
KS. All forecasts models show very heavy rainfall developing in AR
during much of this weekend. Accordingly, expect the flooding
threat to increase across the N half of the ArkLaTex region this
weekend into early next week with storm total amounts upwards of
ten inches in the favored locations of the Ouachita Mountains. In
addition, we can expect severe weather with the passage of a line
or even two lines of TSTMS during Saturday and Sunday.

Expect quiet weather to then begin next week and the beginning of
May behind the cold front that sweeps across the region during
Sunday.  /VIII/.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 111 PM CDT Wed Apr 26 2017/

AVIATION...
For the ArkLaTex, Squall line coming together near KTYR/KTXK/KLIT
moving E at 30KTS. At this pace 19Z-01Z is currently in TAFS with
all terminals sporting tempo groups for wind to 40KT and 1sm, of
course some variation will occur and further amendments to follow
observed pace on our radar. Sfc winds are S/SE over LA, but SW/S
over TX with the former potentially tornadic this aftn with decent
heating. W/NW will follow convection closely and strong sustained
values will quickly drop off W to E with only weak high pressure.
/24/


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV  48  78  62  87 /  30  10  10  20
MLU  52  77  60  87 /  50  10  10  20
DEQ  42  75  56  81 /  30   0  10  30
TXK  46  76  59  84 /  40   0  10  30
ELD  48  76  58  84 /  60  10  10  20
TYR  47  80  64  87 /  20   0  10  20
GGG  46  79  63  87 /  20   0  10  20
LFK  51  85  65  92 /  20   0  10  20

&&

.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...Lake Wind Advisory until 2 AM CDT Thursday for ARZ050-051-
     059>061-070>073.

LA...Lake Wind Advisory until 2 AM CDT Thursday for LAZ001>006-
     010>014-017>022.

OK...Lake Wind Advisory until 2 AM CDT Thursday for OKZ077.

TX...Lake Wind Advisory until 2 AM CDT Thursday for TXZ096-097-
     108>112-124>126-136>138-149>153-165>167.

&&

$$

08


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