Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Shreveport, LA

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FXUS64 KSHV 260449
AFDSHV

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Shreveport LA
1149 PM CDT WED MAY 25 2016

.AVIATION... For the ArkLaTex, VFR with S/SE sfc winds 5-15kts.
MVFR cigs are already in and out of Deep E TX and likely over
much by daybreak. The upper low edging over W AZ moving East and
has a load of Pacific moisture focused in on E TX although the
computer models remain flashy with precip areas and we have VCTS
in at our sites again for tomorrow with increasing coverage into
Friday. /24/


&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 908 PM CDT WED MAY 25 2016/

UPDATE...
Things have quieted down since the scattered thunderstorm activity
across portions of North central LA and Northeast LA from earlier
this evening. Will hold on to 20 percent pops overnight across
the CWA given a few computer models hint at the potential for a
few showers to develop. Otherwise, forecast largely on track with
best precipitation chances still looking to occur tomorrow through
Friday.

PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 219 PM CDT WED MAY 25 2016/

DISCUSSION...
One more day of quiet conditions expected through late Thursday
morning before SCT showers and TSTMS spread from W to E across the
forecast area for Thursday evening through Saturday morning.

Seasonably strong short wave trough to move SW to NE from the Four
Corners area through the central US through Saturday morning. Expect
numerous showers and TSTMS to develop with this trough. The GFS model
shows some bullseyes of very heavy rainfall across E TX but the ECMWF
model shows lighter totals. Until confidence increases in the storm
timing and rainfall totals...will not issue a Flash Flood Watch at
this time.

Appears Sunday should provide a break from the weather...but another
trough to traverse the area for Memorial Day through Tuesday morning
with SCT to numerous showers and TSTMS expected.

The bottom line for the upcoming holiday weekend is unsettled
conditions with the exception of most of Sunday. Area travelers and
vacationers need to be mindful of developing weather conditions.

Unfortunately...SW flow continues for the middle of next week through
the first days of June with rain in the forecast as another trough
passage is progged.  /VIII./

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV  74  84  71  81 /  20  40  50  70
MLU  73  86  72  84 /  20  40  30  40
DEQ  72  82  69  77 /  20  50  60  80
TXK  73  83  70  79 /  20  50  60  80
ELD  73  85  70  82 /  20  50  40  60
TYR  74  82  71  79 /  20  50  60  80
GGG  74  83  71  80 /  20  50  60  70
LFK  75  83  73  82 /  20  50  40  70

&&

.SHV Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
AR...None.
LA...None.
OK...None.
TX...None.
&&

$$

24/29/08



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