Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Shreveport, LA

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546
FXUS64 KSHV 120012
AFDSHV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
612 PM CST THU FEB 11 2016

.AVIATION...
FOR THE 12/00Z TAFS...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL WITH CIRRUS
OCCASIONALLY PASSING THROUGH THE W/NW FLOW PATTERN ALOFT. AT THE
SFC...A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO WORK SLOWLY SWD THROUGH
THE REGION OVERNIGHT AS IT BACKDOORS ITS WAY IN ACROSS NE LA AND
ALONG THE I-20 CORRIDOR THIS EVENING. WINDS WILL BE LGT/VRBL AT
MOST SITES THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS...THEN BECOMING NORTHERLY
IN THE WAKE OF FROPA ON FRIDAY WITH SPEEDS LESS THAN 10 KTS. /19/

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 306 PM CST THU FEB 11 2016/

DISCUSSION...
WEAK COLD FRONT CONINTUES TO MAKE ITS WAY SLOWLY SWD UNDER NWLY
FLOW ALOFT THIS AFTERNOON...AND HAS AIDED OUR TEMPS ACROSS THE
I-20 VC AND SWD IN REACHING INTO THE UPPER 70S SO FAR. THE FRONT
WILL LIKELY WASH OUT SOMEWHERE ACROSS OUR REGION THIS EVENING
AHEAD OF ANOTHER STRONGER COLD AIR PUSH EXPECTED TO COME EARLY
FRIDAY. WITH DEWPOINTS RECOVERING INTO THE LOW TO MID 40S TONIGHT
ACROSS OUR SRN AREAS...LIGHT WINDS...AND CLEAR SKIES
EXPECTED...SOME PATCHY FOG WILL BE POSSIBLE AROUND SUNRISE.

FRIDAY`S COLD PUSH WILL KEEP US NEAR SEASONAL NORMALS FOR
SATURDAY...BUT WILL BE SHORT-LIVED. DEEP UPPER TROF FCST TO MOVE
OFF THE E COAST LATE SATURDAY/EARLY SUNDAY...WHICH WILL ALLOW FOR
MORE WNWLY FLOW ALOFT AHEAD OF A SHORTWAVE. SLY SFC FLOW WILL
QUICKLY RETURN TO THE REGION SUNDAY AS A SFC LOW DEVELOPS OVER THE
TX PANHANDLE IN RESPONSE TO THE APPROACHING SHORTWAVE...WHICH WILL
ALLOW FOR TEMPS TO WARM BACK UP ABOVE NORMAL FOR THE SRN HALF OF
THE REGION. ADDITIONALLY...THE RETURN FLOW WILL HELP TO INCREASE
LL MOISTURE AHEAD OF THE DISTURBANCE/COLD FRONT. A FEW SHWRS WILL
BE POSSIBLE AS A REUSULT ON SUNDAY...BUT THE BETTER CHANCES WILL
COME IN ON MONDAY AS THE TROF DEEPENS AND THE COLD FRONT BECOMES
MORE DEFINED AS IT MOVES ACROSS OUR REGION. SOME DISCREPANCIES
BETWEEN THE GFS/EURO EXIST WITH REGARD TO TIMING/POSITION OF THE
TROF...SO HAVE CONTINUED WITH THE MORE-CONSERVATIVE-THAN-GUIDANCE
50 POPS. WITH REGARD TO ANY SEVERE WEATHER THREAT...INSTABILITY
STILL LOOKS TO BE THE LIMITING FACTOR FOR A RISK OVER OUR REGION.
WE WILL LIKELY STRUGGLE TO SEE ANY BETTER THAN ISOLD THUNDER.

RAIN IS FCST TO COME TO AN END BY MONDAY NIGHT...LEAVING US WITH
NW FLOW ALOFT AND HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SFC ONCE AGAIN...WHICH WILL
CARRY US PRETTY MUCH THROUGH THE END OF THE PD. /12/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV  43  67  40  53 /   0   0   0   0
MLU  41  64  37  47 /   0   0   0   0
DEQ  35  64  33  49 /   0   0   0   0
TXK  38  64  36  49 /   0   0   0   0
ELD  36  62  35  46 /   0   0   0   0
TYR  45  67  42  56 /   0   0   0   0
GGG  44  67  41  55 /   0   0   0   0
LFK  51  72  46  60 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
LA...NONE.
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$

19



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