Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Shreveport, LA

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FXUS64 KSHV 041906
AFDSHV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
206 PM CDT TUE AUG 4 2015

.AVIATION...
EXPECTING VFR FLIGHT CATEGORIES TO PREVAIL THROUGH THE TERMINAL
FORECAST PERIOD ENDING 05/18Z WITH THE SMALL EXCEPTION OF AREAS
NEAR AND UNDER ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY
EVENING THAT ARE ABLE TO DEVELOP...ALSO EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING
AROUND 05/12-05/14Z OVER PARTS OF DEEP EAST TEXAS WHERE SOME
CLOUDS AROUND 2 KFT ARE POSSIBLE. SURFACE WINDS WILL BE LIGHT AND
VARIABLE TO SOUTH 5-10 KNOTS. /06/

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1103 AM CDT TUE AUG 4 2015/

DISCUSSION...
TEMPS ARE WARMING QUICKLY THIS MORNING BUT INCREASING CLOUD COVER
THROUGH THE DAY SHOULD SLOW THE RATE OF WARMING JUST A BIT.
HOWEVER...HIGH TEMPS IN THE UPPER 90S TO NEAR 100 DEGREES F STILL
LOOK LIKELY. BAND OF LIGHT TO MODERATE RAIN CONTINUES TO MOVE INTO
ERN OK AND PORTIONS OF N TX JUST SOUTH OF THE RED RIVER. EASTWARD
PROGRESS IS A COUPLE OF HRS FASTER THAN PROGGED BY THE HIGHER
RESOLUTION MODELS SO WILL MAINTAIN SLIGHT CHANCE POPS THIS
AFTERNOON ACROSS SE OK/SW AR NORTH OF I-30.

ONLY A FEW MINOR TWEAKS TO MADE PRIMARILY TO POPS GRIDS BUT THE
OVERALL INTEGRITY OF THE FCST WAS LEFT INTACT. UPDATED TEXT
PRODUCTS HAVE BEEN SENT. /09/

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 706 AM CDT TUE AUG 4 2015/

AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE 04/12Z TAF PERIOD.
PERIODS OF CIRRUS WILL CONTINUE TO SPREAD SE INTO THE REGION TODAY
BUT SHOULD THIN IN TIME...WITH AREAS OF AC LINGERING THROUGH AT
LEAST MID-MORNING OVER PORTIONS OF EXTREME NE TX/SW AR/SE OK.
CAN/T RULE OUT A WEAK STRATOCU FIELD DEVELOPING AFTER 13Z OVER SE
TX...WHICH MAY AFFECT THE LFK TERMINAL BRIEFLY. OTHERWISE...SHOULD
SEE A SCT CU FIELD DEVELOP AREAWIDE BY MIDDAY...WITH ISOLATED
CONVECTION POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON OVER SE OK/SW AR AND EVEN
NCNTRL LA...NEAR A WEAK SHORTWAVE ROUNDING THE ERN PERIPHERY OF
THE UPPER RIDGE CENTERED OVER W TX AND THE DESERT SW. ANY ISOLATED
CONVECTION THAT DEVELOPS SHOULD DIMINISH BY EARLY EVENING...BUT SHOULD
SEE MORE IN THE WAY OF CIRRUS/AC SPREAD ESE INTO THE REGION THIS
EVENING. ANY STRATOCU SHOULD WAIT UNTIL AFTER 12Z WEDNESDAY BEFORE
AFFECTING PORTIONS OF E TX/NCNTRL LA. S WINDS 4-7KTS TODAY WILL
BECOME LIGHT S/LT AND VRB AFTER 00Z. /15/

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 444 AM CDT TUE AUG 4 2015/

DISCUSSION...
A RANGE OF 70S THIS MORNING WITH A DECENT DEW POINT SPREAD STILL
IN PLACE AT THIS HOUR. DEW POINTS WILL SPIKE A BIT AROUND MID
MORNING...BUT SHOULD MIX OUT ENOUGH TO KEEP THE HEAT INDEX IN THE
LOW END OF THE TRIPLE DIGIT...FEELS LIKE TEMPERATURES...NEARLY
ALL OF TODAY. HOWEVER...A BIT OF AN INCREASE CAN BE EXPECTED BY
TOMORROW WITH AREA WIDE LOW TO MID ONE HUNDRED DEGREE...FEELS LIKE
NUMBERS...INTO AND BEYOND MIDWEEK. FOR NOW ANOTHER DAY BELOW
CRITERIA FOR THE ADVISORY.

OTHERWISE...A FEW CLOUDS ARE DRAPED OVER THE NORTH WITH A SHORT
WAVE PULSE PUSHING OFF THE FRONT RANGE INTO THE PLAINS OVER THE
TX/OK PANHANDLE AND MUCH OF KN WITH SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS
AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS. WE COULD SEE A CHANCE FOR CONVECTION
LATER TODAY OVER THE NORTH AS THIS ENERGY WORKS EASTWARD OVER AR.
MOST MODELS ARE DRY...BUT THE OVERDONE NAM WAS ACTUALLY A STARTING
POINT. THE HRRR FLARES IN A BIT OF DEVELOPMENT EARLY TO MID
AFTERNOON OVER A GOOD BIT OF REAL ESTATE. SPC HAS ALL BUT EAST TX
IN A GENERAL THREAT AND WPC DOES HAVE A BIT OF QPF NORTH. THERE IS
A LITTLE CONFIDENCE IN THE SLIGHT POPS SOUTH...BUT HAVE LEFT IN
FORECAST FOR TODAY OVER OUR SOUTHERN TIER OF CO/PA. IN THE WAKE OF
THIS SHORT WAVE LOOK FOR THE UPPER RIDGE TO LIFT BACK FROM THE
SOUTH OVER US AGAIN BY THE WEEKEND WITH CLIMBING AFTERNOON NUMBERS
LIKELY. THE GOOD NEWS IS THAT THE MODELS ARE A LITTLE DRIER AND
THIS SHOULD KEEP JUST AN ADVISORY CRITERIA GOING AS THE SCHOOL
YEAR BEGINS EARLY NEXT WEEK. RAIN WILL CONTINUE TO BE VERY HARD TO
COME BY WITH HIGH BASED CU NOT VERY GENEROUS. LAST NIGHTS SOUNDING
LEFT US WITH MOISTURE IN THE LOWEST LEVEL AROUND 7.3KFT. THE
CIRRUS AND SOME MID DECK WILL HELP TO KEEP SOME MIDDLE 90S ALONG
THE I-30 CORRIDOR OF MAINLY AR. EXPECT THE SLIGHT CHANCE FOR RAIN
TO LINGER UNDER LOWER HEIGHTS ALOFT FOR A COUPLE OR FEW DAYS AND
THEN DISAPPEAR AGAIN AS THE RIDGE EXPANDS BACK NORTHWARD. /24/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV 100  78 100  79 /  10  10  20  20
MLU  99  77  98  76 /  10  10  20  20
DEQ  96  74  98  76 /  20  20  20  20
TXK  98  78 100  79 /  10  20  20  20
ELD  98  76  97  76 /  10  20  20  20
TYR  99  78 100  78 /  10  10  10  10
GGG 100  77 100  78 /  10  10  20  20
LFK  97  76  99  76 /  20  10  10  10

&&

.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
LA...NONE.
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$

06



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