Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Tulsa, OK
FXUS64 KTSA 291131
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tulsa OK
631 AM CDT FRI JUL 29 2016
CONCERNING TAF SITES KTUL/KRVS/KBVO/KMLC/KXNA/KFYV/KFSM/KROG.
Ongoing convection across north central OK will continue to spread
south and gradually eastward with periodic flight impacts likely
across E OK this morning. Further storm develop is likely by late
morning through afternoon possibly impacting western AR sites.
Convective chances continue tonight with another storm complex
likely developing across the region.
.PREV DISCUSSION... /Issued 346 AM CDT FRI JUL 29 2016/
Early this morning an MCS was progressing south southeast within
upper level northwesterly flow through Southern Kansas into North
Central Oklahoma. The majority of this area of convection should
remain just west of Eastern Oklahoma as the MCS takes on a more
southerly component through the morning hours...indicated by the
operational HRRR. Thus...will carry higher pops along and west of
Highway 75 through the morning hours. Locally gusty winds and
periods of heavy rainfall will be possible with this activity.
Additional showers and thunderstorms are expected to develop
during the day again across Eastern Oklahoma and Northwest
Arkansas. This is in response to a weak nearly stationary frontal
boundary holding over the region and also a weak shortwave moving
through the region within the upper level northwesterly flow. The
greater precip chances this afternoon look to be south of the
boundary...mainly along and south of I-40...and across Northwest
Arkansas as the shortwave moves through. Again...locally strong
winds and periods of heavy rainfall will be possible within any
thunderstorm development. With additional precip chances and the
boundary near I-40...afternoon temps in the upper 80s/lower 90s
near the Kansas border to the mid 90s near the Red River will be
Overnight tonight...the question remains where the next MCS
propagates through the Southern Plains. This mornings MCS and
afternoon convection could push the frontal boundary southward
enough that tonights MCS could push across Southeast Oklahoma.
Some model solutions indicate this while other solutions push the
MCS through Southern Kansas and Northern Oklahoma with the
boundary near/just north of I-40. For now will continue to
broad brush chance pops over the CWA tonight...with a slight lean
of higher pops over Southeast Oklahoma.
Thunderstorm chances remain possible through the weekend before
the weak frontal boundary finally retreats northward during the
day Sunday. At the same time Sunday...high pressure currently over
the Desert Southwest...is forecast to begin building back over
the Southern Plains. Thus...rising mid-level heights and the
retreating boundary should taper off precip chances Sunday
afternoon from Southwest to Northeast and exit Sunday evening with
the departing front.
The ridge of high pressure...continues to build over the Plains
for next week. This will allow for hot and humid conditions to
increase again over the CWA. Temps in the mid 90s to near 100
degrees will be possible as well as heat index values reaching up
into advisory levels...105 degrees and greater.
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL 92 73 92 75 / 50 40 50 40
FSM 93 74 91 75 / 50 50 50 40
MLC 92 73 92 75 / 50 50 40 20
BVO 88 69 88 72 / 50 40 40 40
FYV 88 69 87 70 / 40 40 50 50
BYV 88 69 87 70 / 40 40 50 50
MKO 91 73 90 74 / 50 40 50 30
MIO 87 70 88 71 / 40 40 50 50
F10 90 73 91 74 / 50 40 50 30
HHW 95 74 94 75 / 40 50 40 20