Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Tulsa, OK

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FXUS64 KTSA 292028
AFDTSA

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tulsa OK
328 PM CDT Sat Apr 29 2017

.DISCUSSION...
A high impact flooding event continues across the region...with
several flash flood warnings in effect for a large part of
northeast OK and northwest AR. Multiple rounds of showers and
thunderstorms have resulted in widespread 2-5 inch rain amounts
with some local amounts over 6-7 inches. We`ve received numerous
reports of street flooding...closed bridges and high
water...especially across northwest AR. Mainstem river flooding
will be a major issue...with 23 forecast points currently in
flood (many moderate to major).

Currently...a stationary front was draped across northwest AR into
southeast OK to a surface wave near Durant. One area of heavy rain
continues along this boundary...with a secondary area of
showers/storms farther west along inverted surface trof. The
multiple rounds of precipitation have sufficiently squashed the
warm sector...although far southeast OK remains quite warm/moist
and unstable (dewpoints running in the lower/mid 70s). Will need
to monitor this area over the next few hours for potential severe
convection.

The secondary area of showers/storms will persist through the
rest of the afternoon/early evening...moving back over areas that
received significant rainfall. Expect flash flood/areal flood
warnings to continue well into the overnight hours.

Rainfall will taper off later this evening and overnight as the
deep upper cyclone lifts northeast into KS. Could see some
lingering wraparound showers into Sunday morning...otherwise
expect a cool and very breezy day.

The next chance of precipitation comes Tuesday night into
Wednesday as a fast moving upper trof drops southeast through the
Rockies. A developing surface boundary across the region will be
the main focus...with most precipitation mainly along and north of
the front. This would result in additional rainfall across areas
that have been hit hard over the past 24 hours.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL   49  58  42  72 /  80  30  10  10
FSM   59  66  44  74 /  90  20  10  10
MLC   51  61  45  74 /  80  10  10   0
BVO   48  54  40  70 /  80  40  10  10
FYV   54  59  42  67 /  90  30  10  10
BYV   59  64  42  66 / 100  40  10  10
MKO   51  58  42  72 /  80  20  10  10
MIO   52  58  42  66 /  80  50  20  10
F10   49  58  43  72 /  80  20  10   0
HHW   54  64  45  74 /  90  10  10   0

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...Flash Flood Watch through Sunday morning for OKZ049-053>076.

AR...Flash Flood Watch through Sunday morning for ARZ001-002-010-011-
     019-020-029.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...11
LONG TERM....18


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