Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Tulsa, OK

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FXUS64 KTSA 190537
AFDTSA

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tulsa OK
1137 PM CST Sun Feb 18 2018

.AVIATION...
CONCERNING TAF SITES KTUL/KRVS/KBVO/KMLC/KXNA/KFYV/KFSM/KROG.
IFR ceilings will prevail overnight and Monday morning, with some
slight improvement to MVFR Monday afternoon and evening. Scattered
showers and thunderstorms will be possible at just about any time
during the period, but are only highlighted in the TAF during the
most likely time frame. Strong south winds will gust to near 30
knots at times, with low level wind shear at KFSM through Monday
morning, where surface winds will remain more easterly.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /Issued 829 PM CST Sun Feb 18 2018/

..UPDATE...

DISCUSSION...
Low level moisture surging north per low-level water vapor imagery
and surface observations. Dewpoints continue to creep upwards into
the upper 40s and lower 50s this evening across eastern Oklahoma
and western Arkansas. This has aided in the development of patchy
fog and drizzle this evening. Increasing surface winds should keep
dense fog at bay and expect showers to begin developing over the
next several hours across southeast Oklahoma. A 50-60 kt low-level
jet and a bit of elevated instability should allow for some
widely scattered thunderstorms to develop after midnight,
primarily south of Interstate 40 but could see some activity as
far north as Highway 412.

Changes to the forecast were to add mention of patchy fog and
remove mention of thunder until after 06Z.

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...None.
AR...None.

&&

$$

AVIATION.....05


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