Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Tulsa, OK

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FXUS64 KTSA 171121
AFDTSA

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tulsa OK
621 AM CDT Thu Aug 17 2017

.AVIATION...
CONCERNING TAF SITES KTUL/KRVS/KBVO/KMLC/KXNA/KFYV/KFSM/KROG.
Brief IFR/LIFR cigs this morning will lift to MVFR/ VFR categories
with cigs scattering out by afternoon. TSRA may move into parts OF
NE OK late tonight...however coverage is expected to remain too
sparse for TAF inclusion across the NE OK sites.


&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /Issued 337 AM CDT Thu Aug 17 2017/

DISCUSSION...
The main items of interest in this morning`s forecast are: 1)
Thunder chances and flooding potential tonight thru Friday night
as we near the end of this unseasonably wet regime, 2) Return to
more typical August heat over the weekend into early next week,
and finally 3) Thunder chances with the next front toward the
middle of next week.

Ongoing MCS should be close to exiting the region by 12Z per
latest short term guidance, so only plan to carry low PoPs in the
far south for today. There`s some indication from the ECMWF and
short term guidance that an MCS will organize to our west tonight
and move into our area Friday morning, while generally weakening.
The GFS has been consistent in suggesting that storms will fire to
our north on Friday afternoon along a boundary in association
with a shortwave trough dropping southeast over the Plains. This
solution has support from the Hi-Res NMM and the 06Z NAM, which is
now even more aggressive than the 00Z run. The QPF signal is
stronger with the Friday night MCS, and there is some concern that
heavy rains tracking over wet soils from the recent rains could
elevate the flood threat.

Once the shortwave trough passes by to our northeast Saturday, mid
level height rises will spell an end to the wet regime, and a
return to more typical August weather for the weekend thru at
least Monday. Aside from isolated afternoon storms, hot and dry
weather will be the rule, with temps returning to seasonal
averages.

Storm chances will return late Tuesday and continue thru the
middle of next week as another frontal boundary makes a push south
down the Plains, thanks to the development of deep cyclonic flow
over the Great Lakes and Northeast.

Lacy

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...None.
AR...None.
&&

$$

AVIATION...23


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