Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Tulsa, OK

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FXUS64 KTSA 272329
AFDTSA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
529 PM CST THU NOV 27 2014

.AVIATION...
CONCERNING TAF SITES KTUL/KRVS/KBVO/KMLC/KXNA/KFYV/KFSM/KROG.
SOUTHERLY LOW LEVEL FLOW WILL INCREASE AFTER 15Z IN RESPONSE TO
TIGHTENING PRESSURE GRADIENT / LEE CYCLONGENESIS ACROSS THE
CENTRAL AND SRN HIGH PLAINS. WIND GUSTS OF 25-30 KTS PROBABLE
AFTER 18Z KBVO/KTUL/KRVS. OTHERWISE...VFR WILL OCCUR AT ALL SITES
WITH VARIABLE AMOUNTS OF HIGH CLOUDINESS PASSING THROUGH THE
REGION.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 248 PM CST THU NOV 27 2014/

DISCUSSION...

SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE CURRENTLY RESTS ATOP EASTERN OKLAHOMA AND
WESTERN ARKANSAS...PROVIDING FOR COOL...BUT QUIET WEATHER FOR THIS
THANKSGIVING DAY. SIGNS OF THE CHANGE TO COME ARE ALREADY EVIDENT
JUST TO OUR WEST...HOWEVER...WITH SOUTHERLY WINDS AND A
STRENGTHENING PRESSURE GRADIENT WEST OF INTERSTATE 35. TODAY WILL
BE OUR LAST DAY OF BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES UNTIL NEXT WEEK.

THE UPPER LEVEL PATTERN WILL FLATTEN DURING THE DAY
TOMORROW...ALLOWING FOR WARMER LOW LEVEL AIR AND SOME MOISTURE TO
RETURN TO THE AREA IN CONCERT WITH INCREASING SOUTH WINDS.
ELEVATED FIRE DANGER WILL STILL BE A PROBLEM TOMORROW...BUT AT
THIS POINT...SURFACE DEW POINTS LOOK TO CLIMB FAST ENOUGH TO
AVOID ANY RED FLAG CONDITIONS. THAT WILL HAVE TO BE WATCHED
CLOSELY HOWEVER...BECAUSE IT IS USUALLY THAT FIRST DAY OF WARMER
AIR AND STRENGTHENING WINDS...BEFORE THE MOISTURE FULLY
RETURNS...THAT IS SUSCEPTIBLE TO RED FLAG CONDITIONS. EVEN
WARMER AND CONTINUED WINDY WEATHER WILL BE ON TAP FOR SATURDAY AND
AGAIN SUNDAY AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING ARCTIC FRONT...WHICH WILL
KEEP THE ELEVATED FIRE DANGER THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

MUCH COLDER WEATHER WILL ARRIVE BEHIND THE FRONTAL PASSAGE LATE
SUNDAY AND INTO MONDAY. LIGHT RAIN OR DRIZZLE STILL LOOKS POSSIBLE
ACROSS ROUGHLY THE EASTERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA BEGINNING
SUNDAY NIGHT...AS AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE INTERACTS WITH THE
FRONT. THE THERMAL PROFILE STILL APPEARS SUPPORTIVE OF SOME LIGHT
FREEZING RAIN/DRIZZLE THREAT ACROSS PARTS OF FAR NORTHEAST
OKLAHOMA AND PERHAPS VERY FAR NORTHWEST ARKANSAS SUNDAY NIGHT...BUT
AS IT APPEARED YESTERDAY...AMOUNTS SHOULD BE LIGHT ENOUGH TO AVERT
SIGNIFICANT IMPACTS OUTSIDE OF POSSIBLY THE USUAL
BRIDGES/OVERPASSES.

FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST PERIOD...THERE ARE SIGNIFICANT
DIFFERENCES BETWEEN THE GFS/DGEX PATTERNS AND THE
ECMWF/CANADIAN/UKMET PATTERNS. THE FORMER FAVORS A FAIRLY
PROGRESSIVE...LARGELY FLAT UPPER LEVEL PATTERN...WITH THE LATTER
SUPPORTING A RETURN TO A MORE AMPLIFIED PATTERN WITH NORTHWEST
FLOW IN THE PLAINS. GIVEN THE STRONG TRACK RECORDS OF THE FOREIGN
MODELS...ESPECIALLY WHEN THEIR SOLUTIONS ARE IN CONCERT...WILL
HEDGE TOWARD THE MORE AMPLIFIED PATTERN AND GO WITH A DRY FORECAST
WITH NEAR TO BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES FROM MONDAY NIGHT ON.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL   35  64  50  71 /   0   0   0   0
FSM   32  62  48  71 /   0   0   0   0
MLC   34  63  51  72 /   0   0   0   0
BVO   30  65  43  71 /   0   0   0   0
FYV   27  58  47  67 /   0   0   0   0
BYV   31  58  48  68 /   0   0   0   0
MKO   33  63  48  71 /   0   0   0   0
MIO   32  62  48  69 /   0   0   0   0
F10   36  64  51  72 /   0   0   0   0
HHW   33  64  52  73 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...21
LONG TERM....22
AVIATION...69



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