Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Tulsa, OK

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FXUS64 KTSA 250453
AFDTSA

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tulsa OK
1153 PM CDT SAT SEP 24 2016

.AVIATION...
CONCERNING TAF SITES KTUL/KRVS/KBVO/KMLC/KXNA/KFYV/KFSM/KROG.
Outflow boundary extends from southwest MO through NE OK and has
temporarily shifted winds to northerly at KBVO/KTUL/KRVS. Winds
should come back around to a southeasterly prevailing wind. Main
cold front is still well west of the area...and heaviest
precipitation should occur near that boundary later this morning...probably
between 15-21z. Large area of showers with embedded thunder is
very slowly moving east. Will carry some chance for precipitation
at the NE OK terminals overnight...but heaviest activity will be
after 12z. The NW AR terminals should stay dry until afternoon.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /Issued 738 PM CDT SAT SEP 24 2016/

DISCUSSION...

Longwave upper trough over the Rockies is currently in the
process of splitting into two pieces and is slowly moving east
overall. Amplifying ridging aloft over the Western CONUS will
produce an anticyclonic wave break over the Desert Southwest. The
bulk of the very strong upper jet energy punching into Western
Canada will force the northern portion of the Rockies trough east
and will help to amplify it over the Great Lakes on Monday as the
jet energy dives down into the base of the trough. At the surface,
a cold front in association with the Rockies upper trough will
slide slowly east tonight but will pick up steam on Sunday as high
pressure builds east over the Plains in the wake of the northern
trough.

The combination of the largely meridional flow over our area and
the location of the deep layer moist plume has kept our area
largely dry thru the day today. Storms over the past couple hours
across northern OK have finally produced an organized cold pool
and are advancing east toward Osage and Pawnee counties. The
latest runs of the HRRRX suggest that this activity will gradually
decrease in intensity with the loss of daytime heating, which
makes sense with the large scale support well dislocated from this
region. The HRRRX also suggests that eastward progress of the
activity will be limited tonight, and mainly along/west of highway
75. There`s suggestion by both the ECMWF and the HRRRX that
another round of rain and storms will lift up into this same area
along and W of highway 75 later tonight. The current forecast
agrees with this scenario and thus no major changes are planned.

Lacy

PREV DISCUSSION... /Issued 621 PM CDT SAT SEP 24 2016/

AVIATION...
CONCERNING TAF SITES KTUL/KRVS/KBVO/KMLC/KXNA/KFYV/KFSM/KROG.
Showers and storms continue along an elongated front from TX to
MN this evening. Due to the meridional flow...this line of
convection has been slow to push to the east. Based on latest
radar trends...do not expect any storms at the terminals through
06z with the possible exception of KBVO. Will use tempo groups
after 06z at KTUL/KRVS to account for any storms. Most of the
precipitation will likely be with the front or behind the
front...which won`t happen until after 12z for the rest of the
area. For now...we will keep the NW AR TAFs and KMLC dry.

PREV DISCUSSION... /Issued 256 PM CDT SAT SEP 24 2016/

DISCUSSION...
The much anticipated rain event is beginning to unfold just to the
west of the forecast area across portions of western Oklahoma this
afternoon. Radar trends indicate some slow eastward movement in
cells on the western fringes of the main area of showers and
thunderstorms, a trend that will continue through the evening and
into the overnight. The overwhelming majority of eastern Oklahoma
and western Arkansas will remain dry through the daylight hours
today and except for portions of eastern Oklahoma along and west
of Highway 75, probably most of the late evening, too. The
heaviest showers and thunderstorms will be most likely from early
Sunday morning through Sunday afternoon, as the approaching cold
front finally takes shape in the Central Plains and surges into
the region. The highest rainfall amounts will affect parts of
northeast Oklahoma, with notably lighter amounts across southeast
Oklahoma and into western Arkansas.

The latest data continue to show a progressive system, with the
low in the southwestern United States expected to retrograde and
have little effect on the area. As such, there will be a quick
end to the showers and thunderstorms, with only parts of southeast
Oklahoma and west central Arkansas possibly seeing rain as late as
Monday morning.

Much cooler and drier air will move into the region behind the
front. Temperatures through mid week should be below normal in
most locations, with a trend toward near normal conditions by the
latter part of the week.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL   72  79  56  77 /  80  90  30  10
FSM   71  90  67  79 /  10  30  30  10
MLC   71  85  63  77 /  40  60  30  10
BVO   69  76  52  76 /  80  90  20  10
FYV   67  82  59  74 /  10  50  30  10
BYV   68  84  58  74 /  10  50  30  10
MKO   71  80  59  76 /  40  80  30  10
MIO   67  79  54  74 /  50  80  20  10
F10   71  79  59  76 /  50  80  30  10
HHW   70  91  66  77 /  20  30  40  10

&&

.TSA Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
OK...None.
AR...None.
&&

$$

AVIATION...06



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