Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Tulsa, OK

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FXUS64 KTSA 241107
AFDTSA

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tulsa OK
507 AM CST Fri Feb 24 2017

.AVIATION...
CONCERNING TAF SITES KTUL/KRVS/KBVO/KMLC/KXNA/KFYV/KFSM/KROG.

Gusty west to northwest winds will continue through the afternoon
behind the overnight cold front. Periods of MVFR ceilings will
continue through much of the morning at all terminals, with the
shortest duration likely to be at MLC and FSM. Wraparound moisture
late tonight should lead to another period of SCT/BKN clouds at
MVFR heights for FYV/XNA/ROG, with XNA and ROG most likely to see
BKN conditions.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /Issued 353 AM CST Fri Feb 24 2017/

DISCUSSION...
Cold front currently from far NW AR into far SE OK continues
steadily eastward and will clear the remainder of NW AR around
sunrise. Persistent cold advection and breezy winds will be a
sharp contrast to recent days. Sfc high settles over the region
tonight through Sat maintaining temps near seasonal averages.

Sfc high shifts eastward by Sun with precip chances increasingly
slightly within the strengthening warm advection pattern. Warm
frontal boundary strengthens near the Red River by Sunday night
with increasing shower and thunderstorm chances both along and
north of the boundary Sunday night into Monday.

The latest data is in better agreement on the sfc pattern Monday
through Tuesday and supports temps well above normal however low
level flow remains largely veered. The result being a further
eastward placement of the moist axis and resultant instability
corridor ahead of the next fast moving wave. The forecast has
trended eastward and lower with thunderstorm chances accordingly.
The uncertainty lies within the the prevailing flow being active
as a strong jet remains overhead and any subtle changes can have
large impacts on sfc features.

Once the aforementioned wave passes sfc high pressure again builds
overhead leading a quiet mid week forecast.

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...None.
AR...None.
&&

$$

AVIATION...22


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