Routine Space Environment Product (Daily)
Issued by NWS

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000
FXXX12 KWNP 240031
DAYDIS

:Product: Forecast Discussion
:Issued: 2017 Mar 24 0030 UTC
# Prepared by the US Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction Center
# Product description and SWPC contact on the Web
# http://www.swpc.noaa.gov/wwire.html
#
#             Forecast Discussion
#
Solar Activity

.24 hr Summary...
Solar activity was very low and Region 2643 (N08E42, Hrx/alpha) remained
largely unchanged this period.  No Earth-directed CMEs were observed in
available coronagraph imagery.

.Forecast...
Solar activity is expected to continue at very low levels throughout the
forecast period (24-26 Mar).

Energetic Particle

.24 hr Summary...
The greater than 2 MeV electron flux reached high levels this period
with a peak flux of 19,100 pfu observed at 23/1735 UTC.  The greater
than 10 MeV proton flux was steady at background levels throughout the
period.

.Forecast...
The greater than 2 MeV electron flux is expected to continue at moderate
to high levels over the next three days (24-26 Mar) and the greater than
10 MeV proton flux is expected to persist at background levels
throughout the forecast period.

Solar Wind

.24 hr Summary...
Solar wind parameters reflected the continued influence of a positive
polarity CH HSS.  Solar wind speed decreased from initial values around
730 km/s to 550 km/s by 23/1500 UTC before increasing once more to
around 650 km/s near the end of the period.  Interplanetary field
strength values increased from around 2-5 nT early in the period to 9
nT late in the period and Bz was mostly neutral or northward throughout
the period.

.Forecast...
Solar wind parameters are expected to begin decreasing on day one (24
Mar) as CH HSS influence subsides with near-background levels expected
on days two and three (25-26 Mar) with the return of a nominal solar
wind environment.

Geospace

.24 hr Summary...
The geomagnetic field decreased from active levels early in the period
to quiet levels as the influence of a positive polarity CH HSS began to
weaken.

.Forecast...
The geomagnetic field is likely to reach G1 (Minor) geomagnetic storm
levels on on day one (24 Mar) due to continued CH HSS influence.  Quiet
to unsettled geomagnetic field activity is expected on days two and
three (25-26 Mar) as CH HSS influence subsides.



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