Routine Space Environment Product (Daily)
Issued by NWS

Home | Current Version | Previous Version | Text Only | Print | Product List | Glossary On
Versions: 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24
000
FXXX12 KWNP 260031
DAYDIS

:Product: Forecast Discussion
:Issued: 2014 Dec 26 0030 UTC
# Prepared by the US Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction Center
# Product description and SWPC contact on the Web
# http://www.swpc.noaa.gov/wwire.html
#
#             Forecast Discussion
#
Solar Activity

.24 hr Summary...
Solar activity was low.  Two C4 flares were reported, one from Region
2242 (S17, L=241) from just behind the SW limb at 25/0523 UTC and
another from Region 2248 (S20E47, Hax/alpha) at 25/1211 UTC.  Slight to
moderate growth was observed in newly numbered Region 2249 (S12W33,
Dao/beta-gamma).  The rest of the spotted regions were either stable or
in decay.  No Earth-directed coronal mass ejections (CMEs) were
observed.

.Forecast...
Solar activity is expected to be low, with a chance for M-class
(R1-R2, Minor-Moderate) flares all three days of the period (26-28), as
Regions 2241 and 2242 rotate off the visible disk.

Energetic Particle

.24 hr Summary...
The greater than 2 MeV electron flux was at normal levels.  The greater
than 10 MeV proton flux was at background levels.

.Forecast...
The greater than 2 MeV electron flux is expected to be at normal to
moderate levels for the forecast period (26-28 Dec) with a slight chance
to reach high levels after day 2 (27 Dec).  The greater than 10 MeV
proton flux at geosynchronous orbit is expected to be at background
levels on all three days (26-28 Dec) of the forecast period.

Solar Wind

.24 hr Summary...
The solar wind environment at the ACE spacecraft was slightly perturbed.
Bt began around 6 nT and rose steadily to around 10 nT.  Bz was
generally neutral or positive until 25/1530 UTC after which it was
mostly negative, dipping to -9 nT.  Wind speed varied between about
420-550 km/s, remaining mostly in the upper 400 km/s range.  Phi was
negative.  Temperature declined slightly while density increased
slightly, perhaps signaling the passage of a weak transient feature.

.Forecast...
The solar wind environment is expected to begin with nominal conditions.
The onset of a negative polarity coronal hole high speed stream (CH HSS)
on 27 Dec is expected to bring disturbed conditions which will last
through 28 Dec.

Geospace

.24 hr Summary...
The geomagnetic field was at quiet to unsettled levels.  Around 25/1330
UTC, there was a minor disturbance in the magnetometer chains at all
latitudes, possibly indicating the arrival of a weak transient feature.

.Forecast...
The geomagnetic field is expected to begin at quiet levels before a
negative polarity CH HSS moves into a geoeffective position, bringing
quiet to unsettled levels on days 2-3 (27-28 Dec).


USA.gov is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.