Routine Space Environment Product (Daily)
Issued by NWS

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000
FXXX12 KWNP 061230
DAYDIS

:Product: Forecast Discussion
:Issued: 2016 May 06 1230 UTC
# Prepared by the US Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction Center
# Product description and SWPC contact on the Web
# http://www.swpc.noaa.gov/wwire.html
#
#             Forecast Discussion
#
Solar Activity

.24 hr Summary...
Solar activity was very low. Only low level B-class activity was
observed during the period. Region 2541 (N04E20, Bxi/beta) lost all
penumbra surrounding its spots. All other regions remained stable or
were in minor decay. A filament was observed lifting off in SDO/AIA 193
imagery near N05W60, around 05/2130 UTC. No Earth-directed CME
signatures were observed in available coronagraph imagery.

.Forecast...
Solar activity is expected to be very low with a chance for C-class
flares for the next three days (06-08 May).


Energetic Particle

.24 hr Summary...
The greater than 2 MeV electron flux reached high levels, reaching a
maximum flux of 3,400 pfu at 05/1335 UTC. The greater than 10 MeV proton
flux remained at background levels.

.Forecast...
The greater than 2 MeV electron flux is expected to be at moderate to
high levels on day one (06 May). On day two (07 May), interaction with
an anticipated CH HSS likely to cause a redistribution of the energetic
particles, decreasing flux levels to normal to moderate levels. The
greater than 10 MeV proton flux is expected to continue at background
levels.


Solar Wind

.24 hr Summary...
Solar wind parameters were slightly enhanced, suggesting the onset of a
CIR ahead of the anticipated positive polarity CH HSS. Total field
increased from 5 nT at the beginning of the period to 9-10 nT after
around 05/2130 UTC. The Bz component was variable, ranging between +/- 8
nT. Solar wind speeds were between 350-400 km/s through most of the
period, increasing to around 420 km/s after 06/0915 UTC. Phi angle was
predominantly oriented in the negative (towards) sector.

.Forecast...
The solar wind environment is expected to remain enhanced under the
influence of the CIR ahead of the positive polarity CH HSS on day one
(06 May). The enhancement is expected to continue on day two and into
day three (07-08 May) as the CH HSS influence persists.


Geospace

.24 hr Summary...
The geomagnetic field was at quiet to unsettled levels.

.Forecast..
The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet to unsettled levels on
day one (06 May) under slightly enhanced solar wind conditions. Active
levels are expected on days two and three (07-08 May) as the CH HSS is
expected to continue to disturb Earths geomagnetic field.



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