Routine Space Environment Product (Daily)
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000
FXXX12 KWNP 021231
DAYDIS

:Product: Forecast Discussion
:Issued: 2015 Mar 02 1230 UTC
# Prepared by the US Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction Center
# Product description and SWPC contact on the Web
# http://www.swpc.noaa.gov/wwire.html
#
#             Forecast Discussion
#
Solar Activity

.24 hr Summary...
Solar activity began the period at low levels but increased to moderate
levels late this period.  Region 2290 (N22W84, Hsx/Alpha) produced a
pair of M1 (R1-Minor) flares at 02/0639 UTC and 02/0948 UTC, the first
of which had an associated 1f optical classification.  In addition to
the R1 events, Region 2290 produced numerous low and mid-level C-class
flares this period.  Due to Region 2290s proximity to the western limb
sunspot and magnetic classification were difficult to accurately
determine.  Region 2292 (S08W37, Dai/beta), which reemerged from plage
yesterday, exhibited moderate growth in its leader and intermediate spot
areas but was largely unproductive.  Region 2293 (N06W05, Dai-beta)
underwent minor decay this period.

Numerous coronal mass ejections (CMEs) were observed off the
northwestern limb associated with flare activity from Region 2290 but
initial analysis indicates that none were Earth-directed.

.Forecast...
Solar activity is expected to be low with a chance for M-class
(R1-R2/Minor-Moderate) flare activity on day one (02 Mar) as Region 2290
crosses the northwestern limb.  Solar activity is likely to be low on
days two and three (03-04 Mar).

Energetic Particle

.24 hr Summary...
The greater than 2 MeV electron flux was at normal levels and the
greater than 10 MeV proton flux was at background levels this period.

.Forecast...
The greater than 2 MeV electron flux is expected to remain at normal
levels for days one and two (02-03 Mar) with normal to moderate levels
likely by day three (04 Mar) in response to the current coronal hole
high speed stream (CH HSS) effects and enhanced solar wind environment.

The greater than 10 MeV proton flux is expected to persist at background
levels over the next three days (02-04 Mar).

Solar Wind

.24 hr Summary...
Solar wind parameters at the ACE spacecraft were indicative of continued
CH HSS influence.  Solar wind velocities initially decreased from 550
km/s to 425 km/s but then steadily increased to end-of-period values
near 660 km/s after 02/2300 UTC.  IMF total field values ranged between
3 nT and 15 nT and Bz reached a maximum southward component of -11 nT
late in the period.  The phi angle remained steady in a negative
(toward) solar sector configuration throughout the period.

.Forecast...
The solar wind environment is expected to remain enhanced for the
remainder of day one (02 Mar) until midday on day two (03 Mar) as CH HSS
persists.  Solar wind parameters are likely to begin a gradual return to
near-background levels midday on day two (03 Mar) through day three (04
Mar) as CH HSS influence begins to wane.

Geospace

.24 hr Summary...
The geomagnetic field was at quiet to unsettled levels early this period
with an increase to active to G1 (Minor) geomagnetic storming levels
observed later in the period due to CH HSS effects.  G1 (Minor)
conditions were observed between 02/0724-0900 UTC and again at
02/1147-1200 UTC.

.Forecast...
The geomagnetic field is expected to be at active to G1 (Minor) levels
through midday on day one (02 Mar) due to continued CH HSS effects.
Field activity is likely to decrease to unsettled levels late on day one
(02 Mar) with unsettled to active conditions on day two (03 Mar) as CH
HSS influence begins to subside.  Generally quiet to unsettled levels
are expected for day three (04 Mar) with the anticipated return to a
nominal solar wind regime.


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