Routine Space Environment Product (Daily)
Issued by NWS

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000
FXXX12 KWNP 220032
DAYDIS

:Product: Forecast Discussion
:Issued: 2017 Sep 22 0030 UTC
# Prepared by the US Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction Center
# Product description and SWPC contact on the Web
# http://www.swpc.noaa.gov/wwire.html
#
#             Forecast Discussion
#
Solar Activity

.24 hr Summary...
Solar activity was very low.  Regions 2680 (N08W80, Hsx/alpha) and 2681
(S13E59, Hsx/alpha) were quiet and stable.  No Earth-directed CMEs were
observed in available satellite imagery.

.Forecast...
Solar activity is expected to be at very low levels on day one (22 Sep).
Solar activity is expected to increase to low levels with a chance for
M-class (R1-R2, Minor-Moderate) flares with the return of old Region
2673 (S09, L=119).

Energetic Particle

.24 hr Summary...
The greater than 2 MeV electron flux was at high levels with a maximum
flux of 30,386 pfu at 21/1915 UTC.  The greater than 10 MeV proton flux
continued at background values.

.Forecast...
The greater than 2 MeV electron flux is expected to be at high levels on
days one and two (22-23 Sep).  A decrease to moderate levels is likely
on day three (24 Sep) with the arrival of a CIR in advance of a negative
polarity CH HSS.  The greater than 10 MeV proton flux is expected to
remain at background levels.

Solar Wind

.24 hr Summary...
Solar wind parameters were near nominal levels over the period.  Solar
wind speed ranged from approximately 400 km/s to 470 km/s.  Total field
ranged from 2-5 nT while the Bz component was between +/-4 nT.  Phi
angle was predominantly oriented in a positive (away) solar sector.

.Forecast...
Solar wind parameters are expected to be at nominal levels on days one
and two (22-23 Sep).  By day three (24 Sep), parameters are expected to
become enhanced from a negative polarity, polar connected, CH HSS.

Geospace

.24 hr Summary...
The geomagnetic field was quiet to unsettled.

.Forecast...
The geomagnetic field is expected to be mostly quiet on day one (22 Sep)
and quiet to unsettled on day two (23 Sep) under a nominal solar wind
regime.  Quiet to active levels are expected on day three (24 Sep) with
the arrival of a negative polarity CH HSS.



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