Routine Space Environment Product (Daily)
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000
FXXX12 KWNP 260030
DAYDIS

:Product: Forecast Discussion
:Issued: 2017 May 26 0030 UTC
# Prepared by the US Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction Center
# Product description and SWPC contact on the Web
# http://www.swpc.noaa.gov/wwire.html
#
#             Forecast Discussion
#
Solar Activity

.24 hr Summary...
Solar activity remained very low. Region 2659 (N13W32) grew in areal
coverage as well as increasing in magnetic complexity from a Cro/beta to
a Dsi/beta. It remained the only spotted numbered region on the disk.
Solar x-ray flux backgrounds increased slightly over the period as well.
No Earth-directed CMEs were observed during the summary period.

.Forecast...
Solar activity is expected to be very low, with a chance for
C-class flares, throughout the forecast period (26-28 May).

Energetic Particles

.24 hr Summary...
The greater than 2 MeV electron flux reached high levels with a peak
flux of 17,618 pfu. The greater than 10 MeV proton flux remained at
background values.

.Forecast...
The greater than 2 MeV electron flux is expected to reach high levels
again tomorrow on day one (26 May) with the anticipated arrival of the
23 May CME midday. A return to near background conditions is
forecast for the second half of day one through days two and three
(27-28 May). The greater than 10 MeV proton flux is expected to continue
at background levels.

Solar Wind

.24 hr Summary...
Solar wind parameters remained indicative of background ambient
conditions. Solar wind velocities gradually decreased from 460 km/s to
approximately 300 km/s. Total field (Bt) was steady near 5 nT, while the
Bz component fluctuated slightly between +/-2 nT. The phi angle remained
in a negative sector during the period.

.Forecast...
Solar wind parameters are expected to remain at ambient conditions for
the first half of day one (26 May). Mid to late day on day one, solar
wind parameters are expected to become enhanced and disturbed with the
arrival of the 23 May CME. Conditions should remain disturbed for days
two and three (27-28 May).

Geospace

.24 hr Summary...
The geomagnetic field was quiet.

.Forecast...
Unsettled to active conditions are expected, with a slight chance for
G1-Minor storm conditions, by midday on day one (26 May), with the
arrival of the 23 May CME. Unsettled to active conditions are expected
to continue on days two and three (27-28 May) with weak CME effects
underway.


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