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FXXX12 KWNP 230031

:Product: Forecast Discussion
:Issued: 2014 Nov 23 0030 UTC
# Prepared by the US Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction Center
# Product description and SWPC contact on the Web
#             Forecast Discussion
Solar Activity

.24 hr Summary...
Solar activity was at low levels.  Regions 2209 (S15W43,
Fko/beta-gamma-delta) and 2216 (S13E41, Dkc/beta-gamma) were responsible
for the production of the majority of the C-flare activity over the
period.  The largest flare of the period was a C8/1b at 22/0101 UTC from
Region 2209.  Region 2209 had some minor spot development as well while
Region 2216 appeared to lose the penumbral area connecting the different
polarities.  Region 2216 is now characterized as a beta-gamma magnetic
class.  No Earth-directed coronal mass ejections were observed.

Solar activity is likely to be at moderate levels (R1-R2/Minor-Moderate)
with a chance for an X-class flare (R3/Strong or greater) for the
forecast period (23-25 Nov). Regions 2209 and 2216 continue to be the
most likely sources for significant flare production.

Energetic Particle

.24 hr Summary...
The greater than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit was at
normal to moderate levels, while the greater than 10 MeV proton flux was
at background levels.

The greater than 2 MeV electron flux is expected to continue at normal
to moderate levels for the forecast period (23-25 Nov). There is a
slight chance for a greater than 10 MeV proton enhancement at or above
the S1 (Minor) solar radiation storm threshold over the next three days
due to potential significant flare activity from Regions 2209 and 2216.

Solar Wind

.24 hr Summary...
Solar wind parameters continued to be slightly enhanced through the
period, likely under weak coronal hole high speed stream (CH HSS)
influence.  Solar wind speeds ranged from 345 km/s to 420 km/s.  Total
field increased slightly from around 6 nT to 8 nT while the Bz component
was variable between +5 nT and -7 nT.  Phi angle was mostly oriented in
a positive (away) sector.

Solar wind parameters are expected to be slightly enhanced, but in
decline through day two (23-24 Nov) as weak CH HSS influence dissipates.
A return to nominal solar wind conditions is expected by day three (25


.24 hr Summary...
The geomagnetic field was at quiet to unsettled levels.

The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet to unsettled levels
with isolated active periods possible on days one through two (23-24
Nov) with a return to mostly quiet conditions by day three (25 Nov). is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.