Routine Space Environment Product (Daily)
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000
FXXX12 KWNP 041231
DAYDIS

:Product: Forecast Discussion
:Issued: 2016 Dec 04 1230 UTC
# Prepared by the US Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction Center
# Product description and SWPC contact on the Web
# http://www.swpc.noaa.gov/wwire.html
#
#             Forecast Discussion
#
Solar Activity

.24 hr Summary...
Solar activity increased to low level activity due to a pair of
impulsive C1/Sf flares observed at 04/0251 UTC and 04/0723 UTC from
Region 2615 (S07W14, Dai/beta).  Region 2615 continued its minor growth
phase in its intermediate and trailer spot areas and exhibited some weak
magnetic mixing within its intermediate spots.  Region 2612 (N09W69,
Cao/beta) displayed penumbra decay in its trailer spot while Regions
2614 (N06W43) and 2616 (N18W41) decayed to plage.  No Earth-directed
CMEs were observed in available coronagraph imagery.

.Forecast...
Solar activity is expected to continue at very low levels, with a chance
for C-class and a slight for M-class flare activity, over the next three
days (04-06 Dec).

Energetic Particle

.24 hr Summary...
The greater than 2 MeV electron flux reached moderate to high levels
this period with peak flux of 6,638 pfu observed at 03/1550 UTC.  The
greater than 10 MeV proton flux was steady at background levels
throughout the period.

.Forecast...
The greater than 2 MeV proton flux is expected to continue at moderate
to high levels over the next three days (04-06 Dec) and the greater than
10 MeV proton flux is expected to persist at background levels
throughout the forecast period.

Solar Wind

.24 hr Summary...
Solar wind parameters reflected a background solar wind environment this
period.  Total field strength values were steady between 1-3 nT while
the Bz component varied between -2 nT to +1 nT.  Solar wind speeds began
the period near 320 km/s and slowly decreased to end of period speeds at
about 270 km/s.  The phi angle was steady in a positive solar sector
orientation through about 03/2300 UTC when it indicated some negative
orientation through periods end.

.Forecast...
Solar wind parameters are expected to be slightly enhanced on days one
and two (04-05 Dec) due to the weak influence of a positive polarity CH
HSS.  Background solar wind conditions are expected on day three (06
Dec) with the return of a nominal solar wind regime.

Geospace

.24 hr Summary...
The geomagnetic field was quiet under a nominal solar wind regime.

.Forecast...
The geomagnetic field is expected to be quiet to unsettled on days one
and two (04-05 Dec) due to the influence of a positive polarity CH HSS.
Generally quiet conditions are expected on day three (06 Dec).


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