Fire Weather Outlook Discussion
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FNUS22 KWNS 311904
FWDDY2

DAY 2 FIRE WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0204 PM CDT WED AUG 31 2016

VALID 011200Z - 021200Z

...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR PORTIONS OF CNTRL/ERN NV...

A SMALL CRITICAL AREA HAS BEEN INTRODUCED ACROSS PORTIONS OF
CNTRL/ERN NV FOR D2/THU. A RELATIVE MAXIMUM /AROUND 25-30 KT/ IN
SWLY FLOW AT 700 MB WITHIN LARGE-SCALE TROUGHING OVER THE WRN CONUS
IS FORECAST TO MOVE OVER THIS AREA THU AFTERNOON...AND A CONFINED
AREA OF STRONG/GUSTY SWLY SFC WINDS AROUND 20-25 MPH NOW APPEARS
LIKELY. THESE WINDS WILL OCCUR IN CONJUNCTION WITH RH VALUES OF
10-15 PERCENT AND DRY FUELS...NECESSITATING THE CRITICAL
DELINEATION.

MINOR CHANGES HAVE BEEN MADE TO THE ISOLATED DRY THUNDERSTORM AREA
ACROSS PARTS OF THE NRN GREAT BASIN AND NRN/CNTRL ROCKIES. THERE
APPEARS TO BE SOME POTENTIAL FOR LOCALLY SCATTERED CONVECTIVE
COVERAGE THU AFTERNOON AND EVENING ACROSS PARTS OF NERN UT...ERN
ID...AND WRN WY AS AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH APPROACHES FROM THE W. WILL
DEFER INTRODUCTION OF A SCATTERED DRY THUNDERSTORM AREA AT THIS TIME
PENDING ADDITIONAL INFORMATION FROM LATER CONVECTION-ALLOWING MODEL
GUIDANCE.

FINALLY...STRONG SLY WINDS OF 20-25 MPH ARE FORECAST TO OCCUR ACROSS
MUCH OF ERN MT...THE WRN DAKOTAS...AND WRN NEB ON D2/THU AS THE SFC
PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN A HIGH OVER THE UPPER MIDWEST AND A LOW
PRESSURE AREA ACROSS CNTRL MT STRENGTHENS. AT THIS TIME...RH VALUES
ARE GENERALLY EXPECTED TO REMAIN ABOVE 25 PERCENT...BUT SOME
POTENTIAL FOR ELEVATED CONDITIONS MAY BE REALIZED WHERE FUELS ARE
DRY ACROSS THIS REGION IF RH VALUES BECOME LOWERED MORE THAN
CURRENTLY FORECAST.

..GLEASON.. 08/31/2016

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0337 AM CDT WED AUG 31 2016/

...SYNOPSIS...
IN THE MID LEVELS...CYCLONIC FLOW WILL BE MAINTAINED OVER THE NWRN
CONUS...AND WILL EXPERIENCE SLIGHT AMPLIFICATION OVER THE PACIFIC NW
AS A SHORTWAVE IMPULSE ADVANCES SEWD FROM THE E PACIFIC AND ONSHORE.
THIS WILL SUPPORT A BAND OF MODERATELY STRONG FLOW TRAVERSING
PORTIONS OF THE NWRN CONUS...WITH PERIPHERALLY ENHANCED MID-LEVEL
SWLYS EXTENDING ACROSS PARTS OF THE CNTRL/NRN GREAT BASIN AND
VICINITY.

...PORTIONS OF THE CNTRL/NRN GREAT BASIN TO PARTS OF THE NRN ROCKIES
AND VICINITY...
ELEVATED FIRE-WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS PORTIONS OF
CNTRL/NRN NV...NWRN UT...NERN CA...SERN ORE...SRN ID...AND SWRN MT.
SWLY SFC WINDS AROUND 15-20 MPH WITH LOCALLY HIGHER GUSTS ARE
EXPECTED TO COMBINE WITH MINIMUM RH AROUND 10-20 PERCENT AMIDST DRY
FUELS...AS VERTICAL MIXING BECOMES DIURNALLY ENHANCED. THE LACK OF
STRONGER LOW/MID-LEVEL FLOW OVER AREAS OF LOW RH SHOULD MINIMIZE THE
CRITICAL FIRE-WEATHER RISK.

ALSO...ACROSS PARTS OF NERN NV...NRN UT...ERN ID...WRN WY...AND SWRN
MT...ISOLATED DRY THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE AS OROGRAPHIC
CIRCULATIONS BECOME ENHANCED AMIDST MODEST MID-LEVEL
MOISTURE/BUOYANCY. GIVEN PW AROUND 0.50-0.75 INCH...COUPLED WITH
DEEP INVERTED-VEE THERMODYNAMIC PROFILES...AND GIVEN MODERATE STORM
MOTIONS...A DRY-THUNDERSTORM MODE IS EXPECTED. HOWEVER...THE LACK OF
STRONGER LARGE-SCALE ASCENT SHOULD LIMIT THE DRY-THUNDERSTORM
COVERAGE TO ISOLATED.

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV/FIRE FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

$$



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