Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Birmingham, AL

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FXUS64 KBMX 160928
AFDBMX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
428 AM CDT TUE SEP 16 2014

.DISCUSSION...

IT APPEARS THAT OUR PESKY SURFACE FRONT HAS PUSHED BACK A BIT
NORTH...BASED LARGELY ON DEW POINT ANALYSIS. LOW LEVELS REMAIN
VERY MOIST EARLY THIS MORNING...AND PATCHY FOG WAS EVIDENT ACROSS
MUCH OF THE AREA. BRIEFLY CONTEMPLATED A DENSE FOG ADVISORY
EARLIER...AS A FEW SPOTS SHOWED VISIBILITY BELOW 1/2 MILE. BUT THE
WORST VISIBILITIES HAVE SINCE IMPROVED TO THE POINT WHERE A DFA IS
NOT NEEDED. WILL KEEP PATCHY FOG IN THE FORECAST...AND IN THE
HWO...THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS HOWEVER.

MODELS SHOW THE SURFACE FRONT SHOULD PUSH BACK TO THE SOUTH OVER
THE NEXT 24 HOURS...AS ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH TREKS
ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES AND OH VALLEY. THE BEST CHANCES FOR SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS TODAY SHOULD BE IN THE MORE MOISTURE RICH AREAS
OF THE SOUTH.

THE MIDDLE TO END OF WEEK PERIOD SHOULD FEATURE DRY WEATHER...WITH
LOWER DEW POINTS. INTERESTINGLY...WE`LL HAVE TO WATCH WHAT HAPPENS
TO THE PLUME OF MOISTURE CURRENTLY ASSOCIATED WITH ODILE IN THE
PACIFIC. MODELS SUGGEST THAT MOISTURE COULD GET CAUGHT UP IN THE
WESTERLIES BY THE WEEKEND...AND EVENTUALLY LINK UP WITH A
DEVELOPING UPPER LEVEL TROUGH.

/61/

&&

.AVIATION...
06Z TAF DISCUSSION.

ATTENTION NOW SHIFTS TO THE DEVELOPMENT OF LOW CLOUDS/FOG
OVERNIGHT. WITH THE PERSISTENT MOISTURE IN PLACE WILL CONTINUE
WITH A MORE PESSIMISTIC FORECAST AND MOVE THE LOW CLOUDS IN FROM
THE SOUTH AND EAST OVERNIGHT. LOOKS LIKE THE LOWEST RESTRICTIONS
WITH IFR/LIFR CONDITIONS WILL BE ANB...EET...TOI AND MGM WHERE
THE BEST MOISTURE WILL BE IN PLACE. SEVERAL MODELS AGREE WITH THIS
EXPECTATION SO CONFIDENCE IS ON THE HIGHER SIDE. THINKING IS THAT
BHM...AND TCL WILL STILL GET LOW CLOUDS BUT WILL LIKELY STAY MVFR
WITH LESS TIME OF IFR POSSIBLE. SLOW CLEARING IN THE MORNING MUCH
LIKE THIS PREVIOUS DAY. THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE LIMITED TO MAINLY
THE SOUTH IN THE AFTERNOON SO ONLY WENT WITH VCTS FOR MGM AND TOI
AFTER 19Z.

16


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GADSDEN     87  64  83  59  83 /  20  10   0   0  10
ANNISTON    87  66  84  60  83 /  30  10   0  10  10
BIRMINGHAM  88  67  85  63  86 /  20  10   0   0  10
TUSCALOOSA  90  68  89  64  88 /  20  10   0   0  10
CALERA      87  68  87  63  86 /  30  10   0   0  10
AUBURN      89  69  89  63  87 /  40  20   0   0  10
MONTGOMERY  91  70  91  64  89 /  40  20   0   0  10
TROY        91  69  91  63  90 /  40  20  10   0  10

&&

.BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$





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