Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Birmingham, AL

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022
FXUS64 KBMX 111643
AFDBMX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
1043 AM CST THU FEB 11 2016

.UPDATE...
MORNING UPDATE.

&&

.DISCUSSION...

IT`S SHAPING UP TO BE A NICE...AND MUCH WARMER...DAY ACROSS
CENTRAL ALABAMA...MUCH NEEDED AFTER THE UNSEASONABLY COOL WEATHER
WE`VE HAD THE PAST FEW DAYS. THERE`S STILL A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY
DRAPED WEST-EAST ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA WITH ONLY SOME SCATTERED
CLOUDS TO THE NORTH. NO RAIN IS EXPECTED WITH THE FRONT AS
CONDITIONS REMAIN TOO DRY. TEMPERATURES ARE ON TRACK TO RISE TO
NEAR 70 DEGREES ACROSS THE SOUTHERN COUNTIES WITH HIGHS IN THE
LOW/MID 50S IN THE NORTH. INCREASED HIGHS BY A COUPLE DEGREES
ACROSS THE SOUTH. OTHERWISE...FORECAST REMAINS ON TRACK.

19

&&

.AVIATION...
12Z TAF DISCUSSION.

VFR FORECAST WITH WEAK SURFACE BOUNDARY DRAPED ACROSS CENTRAL
ALABAMA AT PRESENT. HOWEVER...OVERALL MOISTURE IS MEAGER AND ONLY
ENOUGH FOR SOME SCT TO BKN CLOUDS AROUND 5 KFT OR SO WITH ITS
PROGRESSION. WINDS MAY SHIFT BUT SHOULD REMAIN LIGHT OVERALL FOR A
BOUNDARY AND UNDER 10 KTS TODAY.

08


&&

.FIRE WEATHER...

NO FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS ARE EXPECTED AT THIS TIME. WINDS SHOULD
REMAIN LIGHT TODAY WITH RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES ABOVE 30
PERCENT. STRONGER WINDS ARE EXPECTED ON FRIDAY BUT RELATIVE
HUMIDITY VALUES SHOULD REMAIN ABOVE 30 PERCENT AGAIN. A MUCH
DRIER...ARCTIC AIRMASS WILL MOVE INTO THE REGION ON SATURDAY WITH
DEW POINTS IN THE SINGLE DIGITS AND BRISK NORTHERLY WINDS.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...
/ISSUED 551 AM CST THU FEB 11 2016/
SHORT TERM...
TODAY AND TONIGHT.

WITH SURFACE RIDGING STILL OVER THE GULF...LOW LEVEL FLOW HAS
REMAINED DRY AND GENERALLY FROM THE WEST WITH NOT MUCH MOISTURE TO
INTERACT WITH A WEAK SURFACE BOUNDARY THAT STRETCHES FROM WEST TO
EAST ACROSS CENTRAL ALABAMA. EVEN THOUGH SOME CLOUDINESS WILL BE
POSSIBLE TODAY AND TONIGHT AS THE LOW MOVES ALONG THIS SURFACE
BOUNDARY ACROSS THE SOUTHERN STATES TODAY...NO PRECIPITATION IS
ANTICIPATED ACROSS CENTRAL ALABAMA. EXPECT MILDER TEMPERATURES
TODAY AND TONIGHT AS THE LOW MOVES ACROSS. THE FRONT IS EXPECTED
TO MEANDER SLOWLY TO THE SOUTH THROUGH TONIGHT AS A STRONG RIDGE
SINKS SOUTHWARD OUT OF CENTRAL CANADA INTO THE DAKOTAS.

08

LONG TERM...
FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

AN ELONGATED AREA OF SURFACE LOW PRESSURE WILL PERSIST NEAR THE
BASE OF A LARGE EASTERN CONUS TROUGH ON FRIDAY. WESTERLY FLOW
SHOULD BE CONDUCIVE TO STRONG SURFACE TO 850 MB LAPSE RATES WITH
TEMPERATURES SOARING INTO THE 60S FOR MUCH OF THE AREA. THIS WILL
OCCUR IN ADVANCE OF A BRUTAL ARCTIC AIRMASS BEGINNING TO MOVE
SOUTHWARD INTO THE UPPER MIDWEST. THE BRUNT OF THIS AIRMASS WILL
BE FELT TO OUR EAST WITH MORE OF A SHALLOW COLD ADVECTION REGIME
FOR ALABAMA. STILL...HIGHS ON SATURDAY ARE EXPECTED TO BE ABOUT 20
DEGREES COLDER THAN ON FRIDAY...WITH WIDESPREAD LOW TO MID 20S
EXPECTED FOR SUNDAY MORNING LOWS.

THE SHALLOW NATURE OF THIS COLD AIRMASS WILL SET THE STAGE FOR
ISENTROPIC LIFT SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY AS A BROAD TROUGH
APPROACHES FROM THE WEST...CAUSING PRECIPITATION TO BREAK OUT
ACROSS THE MID-SOUTH AND INTO NORTH ALABAMA. THOUGH THE 850 MB
FREEZING LINE WILL BE RETREATING TO THE NORTHEAST...EVAPORATIVE
COOLING AND SUBLIMATION AT THE ONSET OF PRECIPITATION MAY
INITIALLY BE ABLE TO OFFSET STRONG SOUTHWESTERLY WARM ADVECTION.
THIS COULD LEAD TO A MIXTURE OF RAIN AND ICE PELLETS ACROSS THE
NORTH SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY MORNING...AND MAYBE A LITTLE BIT OF
SNOW IN THE EXTREME NORTHEAST WHERE DEEPER COLD AIR WILL RESIDE.
IT IS POSSIBLE THAT JUST ENOUGH COLD AIR AT THE SURFACE COULD
REMAIN IN PLACE ACROSS CHEROKEE COUNTY FOR A BIT OF FREEZING RAIN
AS WELL...BUT THE REST OF THE FORECAST AREA SHOULD REMAIN ABOVE
FREEZING DUE TO A LACK OF COLD AIR DAMMING. OVERALL THIS SCENARIO
IS NOT EXPECTED TO RESULT IN ANY MAJOR IMPACTS...BUT SOME
LOCALIZED IMPACTS ARE NOT TOTALLY OUT OF THE QUESTION ACROSS THE
EXTREME NORTHEAST. WITHOUT A CLASSIC SURFACE WEDGE IN PLACE AND
STRONG SOUTHERLY LOW-LEVEL FLOW EXPECTED TO DEVELOP...TEMPERATURES
SHOULD RISE BEFORE THE HEAVIER PRECIP ARRIVES LATE MONDAY MORNING
INTO THE AFTERNOON. RAIN WILL COME TO AN END MONDAY EVENING WITH
DRY AND WARMER CONDITIONS FOR MID WEEK AS HEIGHTS RISE.

87/GRANTHAM

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GADSDEN     51  29  58  27  38 /   0   0  10   0   0
ANNISTON    55  31  59  29  40 /   0   0  10   0   0
BIRMINGHAM  57  34  61  29  40 /   0   0   0   0   0
TUSCALOOSA  62  35  63  33  44 /   0   0   0   0   0
CALERA      59  35  62  32  42 /   0   0   0   0   0
AUBURN      61  38  64  34  45 /   0   0  10   0   0
MONTGOMERY  66  39  69  36  49 /   0   0   0   0   0
TROY        69  43  69  38  50 /   0   0   0   0   0

&&

.BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$



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