Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Birmingham, AL

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000
FXUS64 KBMX 021134
AFDBMX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
634 AM CDT MON MAY 2 2016

.SHORT TERM...
TODAY AND TONIGHT.

OVERNIGHT SATELLITE AND OBS SHOW PATCHY FOG ACROSS THE ENTIRE CWA
WITH A FEW EXCEPTIONS IN THE SOUTHEAST DUE TO SOME WIND TRICKLING
IN FROM THE GULF...THE EXPECTED COLD FRONT HAS BREACHED NORTHERN
MISSISSIPPI... INDUCING A FEW SHOWERS IN ITS NORTHWEST
COUNTIES...THE OVERALL TREND WITH THE OMEGA BLOCK IN PLACE MEANS A
LIKELY CHANCE OF THE COLD FRONT PERSISTING IN THE REGION LONGER
THAN MODELS TEND TO PREDICT...UPPER LEVELS WILL REMAIN SOMEWHAT
STAGNATE... WITH LITTLE CHANGE UNTIL FURTHER IN THE WEEK...THE
CURRENT THINKING IS THAT PATCHY FOG WILL PERSIST UNTIL ROUGHLY 9AM
AS WINDS WILL REMAIN LIGHT UNTIL THE PRESSURE TIGHTENS WITH THE
APPROACH OF THE COLD FRONT. TEMPS WILL REMAIN ON A DIURNAL
CYCLE... WITH THE LOW HITTING AROUND SUNRISE... AS LITTLE
SYNOPTIC INFLUENCE IS IN PLACE. SLIGHT CHANCE OF RAIN IS EXPECTED
TO BEGIN IN THE NORTHWESTERN COUNTIES JUST AFTER SUNRISE... WITH
THE MORE MODERATE CHANCES BEGINNING AROUND 14Z-16Z AS THE COLD
FRONT JUST BEGINS TO CREEP PAST THE AL/MS BORDER. AS MENTIONED THE
FRONT WILL LINGER KEEPING RAINFALL AROUND MOST OF THE DAY... A
LIKELY CHANCE OF THUNDER WAS PUT IN MAINLY OF THE AFTERNOON WITH
MODEST SURFACE CAPE ABOVE 2000 J/KG AND SURFACE LAPSE RATES ABOVE
7C/KM. FORTUNATELY NEITHER DEEP SHEAR 0-6KM NOR MID-LEVEL LAPSE
RATES LOOKED IMPRESSIVE ENOUGH TO ADD IN SEVERE ELEMENTS. A FEW
STORMS MAY REACH STRONG CRITERIA, PRODUCING 40 MPH WIND GUSTS.
AFTER 00Z CAPE AND LAPSE RATES DECREASE RAPIDLY... ALLOWING
RAINFALL TO BE THE PREDOMINATE OBSERVED WEATHER THROUGHOUT
TONIGHT.

92

.LONG TERM...
TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY.

AS WE WORK INTO TUESDAY WE WILL CONTINUE TO SEE CLOUD COVER AND
LOWERED RAIN CHANCES AS A COLD FRONT FINISHES IT ROUTE THROUGH
CENTRAL ALABAMA. UNTIL IT CLEARS TOTALLY THERE COULD BE SEVERAL
WAVES ALONG THE COLD FRONT SO RAIN CHANCES COULD WIND UP BEING
HIGHER THAN THE ACTUAL FORECAST...BUT CONFIDENCE ON ANY OF THE EXTRA
WAVES REMAIN LOW AT THIS TIME. THIS HAS BEEN THE OVERALL TREND IN
THE MODELS FOR SEVERAL DAYS...JUST A TOUCH SLOWER. A NEW TWIST IN
THE MODELS THIS MORNING IS A CLIPPER SYSTEM THAT WILL FINALLY PUSH
OUT THE BLOCKING PATTERN IN PLACE WEDNESDAY NIGHT. HAVE RAISED POPS
ACROSS THE NORTH...WITH THE HIGHEST IN THE NORTHEAST FOR WEDNESDAY
NIGHT. THERE IS A CHANCE AT SEEING AN ISOLATED SHOWER OR STORM
BEFORE 00Z BUT CHANCES ARE TOO LOW AT THIS TIME TO INCLUDE. RIGHT
NOW IT LOOKS LIKE THE CLIPPER WILL BE OUT BY 12Z SO CONTINUED WITH
DRY WEATHER ON THURSDAY.

HIGH PRESSURE FINALLY BUILDS IN ON THURSDAY AND WILL LAST THROUGH AT
LEAST SUNDAY AND POSSIBLY INTO THE FIRST OF NEXT WEEK. WE WILL SEE A
GRADUAL WARMING THROUGH THE WEEKEND BUT IT WILL FEEL A LITTLE MORE
LIKE SPRING VERSUS EARLY SUMMER.

16


&&

.AVIATION...
12Z TAF DISCUSSION.

CURRENT CONDITIONS ARE AT IFR AND MVFR WITH PERSISTENT FOG ABLE TO
TAKE ADVANTAGE OF THE LIGHT WINDS ACROSS MOST OF THE CWA. WITH
THE APPROACH OF THE COLD FRONT AND DAYTIME HEATING, WINDS WILL
PICK UP AND ALLOW IFR CONDITIONS TO RISE TO MVFR BY MID MORNING
AND THEN TO VFR BY THE LATE AFTERNOON. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
ARE EXPECTED TO PERSIST FROM MID MORNING THROUGH EARLY EVENING AS
THE COLD FRONT TRANSITS THROUGH THE REGION. VISIBILITIES WILL
AGAIN DROP IN THE SOUTHEAST STARTING AT MIDNIGHT AND LASTING UNTIL
EARLY MORNING WITH THE PASSAGE OF THE FRONT.

92

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...

A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL PUSH THROUGH THE AREA TODAY AND PROVIDE
ANOTHER ROUND OF SHOWERS AND STORMS. LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL WILL BE
POSSIBLE AS WELL. ANOTHER CLIPPER SYSTEM WILL MOVE INTO THE AREA ON
WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND PROVIDE RAIN CHANCES TO THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE
AREA.  DRIER CONDITIONS THURSDAY THROUGH THE WEEKEND. NO FIRE
WEATHER CONCERNS AT THIS TIME.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GADSDEN     78  58  76  49  74 /  80  70  30  10  10
ANNISTON    79  61  77  53  74 /  70  70  30  10  10
BIRMINGHAM  78  60  76  53  74 /  80  70  20  10  10
TUSCALOOSA  77  60  77  51  76 /  80  70  20  10  10
CALERA      78  61  76  53  74 /  70  70  30  10  10
AUBURN      84  63  77  54  74 /  60  50  40  20  10
MONTGOMERY  84  65  80  55  77 /  60  70  40  20  10
TROY        84  65  80  55  77 /  50  50  50  20  10

&&

.BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$



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