Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Birmingham, AL

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FXUS64 KBMX 270541
AFDBMX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
1141 PM CST MON JAN 26 2015

.UPDATE...
FOR 06Z AVIATION.

&&

.DISCUSSION...

TEMPERATURES HAVE DROPPED VERY QUICKLY IN CLOUD-FREE AREAS AND
HAVE ADJUSTED HOURLY TEMPS AND LOWERED OVERNIGHT LOWS ACROSS THE
SOUTH AND WEST. CLOUDS ARE EXPECTED TO PERSIST ACROSS THE NORTH
AND EAST THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE NIGHT WHICH WILL KEEP
TEMPERATURES FROM FALLING TOO MUCH MORE.

87/GRANTHAM


&&

.AVIATION...
06Z TAF DISCUSSION.

CONFIDENCE IN THE LOWER CEILINGS HAS DROPPED SOMEWHAT...BUT STILL
MENTIONED BORDERLINE MVFR CEILINGS FOR THE EASTERN TERMINALS OF
ANB/ASN. MOISTURE ROTATES AROUND THE BACKSIDE OF AN UPPER TROUGH
AS A DISTURBANCE MOVES OVERHEAD AND INTO THE BASE OF THE TROUGH.
THE CLOUDS UPSTREAM HAVE BEEN RELATIVELY STEADY IN THE 4-5K FT
RANGE...WITH THE MVFR CEILINGS SLIGHTLY EAST. IT APPEARS ANOTHER
SLUG OF MOISTURE WILL MOVE ACROSS DURING THE DAY AND ADDED SOME
VFR CEILINGS EAST. WILL MONITOR THESE CLOUD HEIGHTS OVERNIGHT.

WINDS REMAIN RATHER LIGHT AND VARIABLE OVERNIGHT. A SURFACE
TROUGH MOVES BY EARLY TUESDAY AND WINDS WILL SWING AROUND THE
NORTHWEST. WINDS MAY BE GUSTY AT TIMES BUT WILL GENERALLY RANGE
FROM 10-20 KTS...INCLUDING GUSTS.

75

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...
/ISSUED 217 PM CST MON JAN 26 2015/

CLOUDS CLEARING OUT AS UPPER TROUGH PULLS OUT OF THE AREA.
TEMPERATURES RANGING FROM THE LOW 40S IN THE EAST TO 50 IN THE
WEST. COOL TONIGHT WITH LOWS IN THE 30 TO 35 RANGE.

THE NEXT SYSTEM TO AFFECT THE AREA WILL COME ON THURSDAY AS
ANOTHER TROUGH DIGS ACROSS THE EASTERN CONUS. LIMITED MOISTURE
AGAIN WITH THIS SYSTEM AND 12Z TRENDS WERE A LITTLE WEAKER WITH THIS
ONE THAN PREVIOUS RUNS. LOWERED THE POPS TO SLIGHT CHANCE FOR
THURSDAY AND THURSDAY EVENING.

BY THE END OF THE WEEK AND ESPECIALLY BY MIDDLE OF THE WEEKEND...A
CUTOFF LOW WILL HAVE FORMED OVER NORTHWEST MEXICO/SOUTHERN ARIZONA.
PART OF THE ENERGY WITH THIS WILL BREAK OFF AND MERGE WITH ANOTHER
SHORTWAVE THAT COMES DOWN FROM WESTERN CANADA. THIS SYSTEM WILL
PICK UP SOME MOISTURE AND BRING A DECENT CHANCE FOR WIDE SPREAD
RAIN TO THE DEEP SOUTH. 12Z PROFILES ARE TOO WARM FOR SNOW WITH
THE SURFACE LOW TRACKING RIGHT THROUGH CENTRAL ALABAMA. DID RAISE
THE POPS A LITTLE BIT OVER THE WEEKEND.

NOTHING UNUSUAL ABOUT THE TEMPERATURES THE NEXT 7 DAYS. THURSDAY
LOOKS LIKE THE WARMEST DAY WITH MANY LOCATIONS REACH 60 TO 65 JUST
AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT. TEMPERATURES GENERALLY WITHIN A FEW
DEGREES OF CLIMATOLOGY.

88

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GADSDEN     32  49  28  51  33 /   0   0   0   0   0
ANNISTON    33  51  29  54  35 /   0   0   0   0   0
BIRMINGHAM  35  53  31  54  39 /   0   0   0   0   0
TUSCALOOSA  31  56  33  55  39 /   0   0   0   0   0
CALERA      33  54  32  54  38 /   0   0   0   0   0
AUBURN      30  54  32  53  37 /   0   0   0   0   0
MONTGOMERY  31  59  32  56  36 /   0   0   0   0   0
TROY        31  59  33  55  36 /   0   0   0   0   0

&&

.BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$






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