Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Birmingham, AL

Home | Current Version | Previous Version | Text Only | Print | Product List | Glossary On
Versions: 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44 45 46 47 48 49 50
610
FXUS64 KBMX 282007
AFDBMX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Birmingham AL
307 PM CDT Sun May 28 2017

.UPDATE...
Evening Update.

&&

.SHORT TERM...

The outflow boundary that was generated by the storms overnight
has now made it all the way to the Gulf Coast. This has allowed a
bubble high to develop over the area and dewpoints have dropped
into the low to mid 60s. Having a hard time getting any
precipitation to actually reach the service and thus have reduced
precipitation chances quite a bit. Activity in MS, along I-20,
has remained under control and will begin to work into the
southwestern portions of the area between 6 and 8 pm. As it moves
through JAN it has weakened as it begins to work into the drier
airmass due to the bubble high. So the question remains two fold.
First with the boundary along the coast are cut-off from any
moisture return and what will the extent of severe weather be if
we do not not get that return flow until much later. With both
questions left, the level of uncertainty and confidence has
dwindled for tonight. SPC has removed the area from anything more
than than general thunderstorms with the latest update and we will
concur with that and remove Central Alabama from severe weather
mention.

16

.LONG TERM...

Numerous showers and thunderstorms are expected for Memorial Day
in the southwest to northeast oriented moisture axis along and
south of the front which will have stalled. These will be aided by
weak shortwaves in the southwest flow aloft to the south of the
strong upper low over the Great Lakes. Strong storms will continue
to be possible, and an isolated severe storm cannot be ruled out.
0-6 km bulk shear values will be marginal at 25-35 kts, mid-
level lapse rates will be weakening, and profiles will be
fairly saturated. Ongoing precipitation may also hamper
destabilization. Therefore, chances of an organized threat are too
low to mention in the HWO at this time.

The forecast area will remain in the moisture axis south of the
old front Tuesday and Wednesday with continued cyclonic upper-
level flow south of the upper low lifting into Ontario. Scattered
showers and storms will continue across the area, with the best
chances around peak heating. For the rest of the week, the upper
low will continue to lift northeastward while ridging develops
over the Plains. A few southern stream waves will try to under-cut
the ridge. A warm and humid air mass will remain in place over
Central Alabama, with continued summertime afternoon scattered
showers and thunderstorms.

32/Davis

&&

.AVIATION...
18Z TAF Discussion.

Overall a very low confident forecast after 9 hours. With that
said the first 9 hours should be VFR with only an isolated
shower possible. The boundary just passed through TOI with a
thunderstorm developing just southeast of the area and moving
away. With the rains from overnight do not expect anything through
at least 00Z and possibly 03Z to develop or move into the area. We
are beginning to see some thunderstorms west of the MS River that
will likely make it into the area late evening into the overnight
hours. However models are having a very difficult time handling
these scenarios, thus reducing confidence.

16

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...

Scattered to numerous showers and storms will be possible each
day as we remain in an unsettled pattern across the area. Critical
fire weather conditions are not expected due to abundant low
level moisture.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Gadsden     65  81  65  80  63 /  40  60  50  50  20
Anniston    67  83  66  79  64 /  30  60  50  60  20
Birmingham  69  84  68  80  67 /  40  60  50  60  20
Tuscaloosa  70  84  67  82  66 /  60  60  50  60  30
Calera      69  83  67  80  66 /  40  60  50  60  20
Auburn      69  84  68  81  66 /  20  60  40  40  20
Montgomery  71  85  68  83  68 /  30  60  40  60  20
Troy        71  85  67  84  67 /  20  60  30  40  30

&&

.BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES/...
None.

&&

$$



USA.gov is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.