Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Birmingham, AL

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128
FXUS64 KBMX 301907
AFDBMX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Birmingham AL
207 PM CDT THU JUN 30 2016

.DISCUSSION...

Without looking at any observations, one could depict the stalled
frontal boundary to be near Montgomery to Auburn to Atlanta. If
you then go and look at the surface charts, this is confirmed as
winds are from the north, north of I-85 and from the southwest in
the southeastern portions of the area. Depoints are in the
50s across northern and central sections of the area. Visible sat
also confirms this as plenty of clouds south of the front and
almost none north of the front. So what will happen for the restof
the week? The front will remain across the southeast through
Friday, so scattered showers/storms will be possible once again on
Friday afternoon. By Saturday, the front will begin to wash out
and only an isolated shower/storm will be possible during the
afternoon in the southeast.

As we work into Sunday we will see an increase in moisture from
the south and east. With that increase we may see more in the
line of scattered showers and storms for the peak heating of the
day. In fact we will likely be in this summer pattern through mid
week. While we will likely see our typical heating of the day,
scattered showers/storms each day we will also be warming up each
day. With the increased moisture and slightly warmer temperatures
we will be flirting with heat advisory criteria on Tuesday and
Wednesday afternoons. Will continue to mention in the HWO as we
are still a while out from that period.

16

&&

.AVIATION...
18Z TAF Discussion.

VFR conditions are expected through the forecast period. With
convection expected more to the south through the afternoon today,
have removed VCTS in the TAF for KMGM at this time. Convection is
already forming around KTOI, and that terminal will have VCTS
through the rest of the day and into the early afternoon. VFR
conditions will continue for all terminals through the overnight
hours. All sites other than KMGM and KTOI will observe light
northerly surface winds today, while those southern sites will see
variable to southerly winds south of a surface front.

56/GDG


&&

.FIRE WEATHER...

Isolated to scattered shower and thunderstorm activity will
remain possible today, mainly across the southeast half of the
state. Drier and less humid conditions are expected across the
northwest. Rain chances become a little better Sunday into the
beginning of next week and more diurnally influenced. No fire
weather concerns are expected at this time.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Gadsden     63  92  68  94  71 /  10  10  10  20  10
Anniston    62  92  69  94  71 /  10  10  10  20  10
Birmingham  67  93  71  95  74 /  10  10  10  10  10
Tuscaloosa  67  94  71  96  73 /  10  10  10  10  10
Calera      67  93  71  95  73 /  10  10  10  10  10
Auburn      71  91  72  94  73 /  30  20  10  20  10
Montgomery  72  95  72  97  74 /  30  20  10  10  10
Troy        71  92  72  94  73 /  50  20  10  20  10

&&

.BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$



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