Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Birmingham, AL

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000
FXUS64 KBMX 281754
AFDBMX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
1254 PM CDT THU MAY 28 2015

.UPDATE...
FOR 18Z AVIATION.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY IN THIS REGION. BMX SOUNDING SHOWS HIGH PW AND
UNCAPPED AROUND 80 DEGREES. AS TROF PUSHES EAST...PLUS BOUNDARIES
FROM YESTERDAY`S CONVECTION...EXPECT WIDESPREAD DEVELOPMENT DURING
THE AFTERNOON. THUS...HAVE RAISED POPS ACROSS THE CWA. DUE TO THE
EXTREMELY MOIST ATMOSPHERE AND MARGINAL CAPE...DO NOT BELIEVE THERE
IS MUCH OF A SEVERE THREAT...BUT VERY HEAVY RAIN IN STRONGEST STORMS
LIKELY AGAIN THIS PM. STEFKOVICH

$$

.PREV DISCUSSION...
/ISSUED 454 AM CDT THU MAY 28 2015/

THE PATTERN CONTINUES IN A STATUS QUO WITH AN ELONGATED ATLANTIC
RIDGE AND ALABAMA ON THE ONSHORE FLOW SIDE OF THE WEAK RIDGE OVER
THE SOUTHEAST U.S. IN THE LOWER LEVELS. IN THE UPPER LEVELS...A
SHORTWAVE WILL MOVE THROUGH THE SOUTHWEST FLOW TODAY WITH THE BEST
CHANCE FOR RAIN IN THE EAST HALF OF CENTRAL ALABAMA FOR TODAY AND
TONIGHT. THIS WAVE WILL WEAKEN AND MOVE OFF FOR FRIDAY AND POPS
SHOULD BE LOWER WITH LESS FOCUS FOR CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT BUT STILL
SCATTERED AND DIURNALLY BASED AS A LARGE SCALE TROUGH DIGS INTO THE
ROCKIES ON FRIDAY.

FOR FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT...RAIN CHANCES WILL
DECREASE BUT WE SHOULD SEE A POP GRADIENT WITH BETTER CHANCES IN
THE NORTHWEST AS A SURFACE FRONT SINKS SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE
CENTRAL U.S. AND THE UPPER MAIN TROUGH SHIFTS EASTWARD AND DIGS A
LITTLE FURTHER SOUTH.

FOR SUNDAY INTO MONDAY...A SURFACE FRONT WILL HAVE DEVELOPED
ACROSS THE CENTRAL U.S. BUT ONLY MAKE A LITTLE PROGRESS SOUTH AND
EASTWARD TO THE APPALACHIANS AND MID MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY THEN
INTO TEXAS. HOWEVER...ALTHOUGH THE FRONT MAY REACH ALABAMA
BRIEFLY...IT WILL LIKELY STALL AND PUSH NORTHWARD AND ONLY SCAPE
THE AREA. THE UPPER FLOW WILL GIVE LITTLE HELP AS THE LONGWAVE
TROUGH BUILDS OVER THE CENTRAL U.S. ON SUNDAY INTO MONDAY
EVENTUALLY BECOMING A CLOSED LOW OVER ARKANSAS AND LOUISIANA WITH
ALABAMA STAYING ON THE WET ONSHORE FLOW SIDE OF THE LOW. THIS WILL
KEEP SCATTERED CONVECTION POSSIBLE FOR EACH DAY WITH THE HELP OF
DIURNAL HEATING THROUGH AT THE VERY LEAST THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK
UNTIL THIS TROUGH ATTEMPTS TO OPEN UP AND WEAKEN. HOWEVER...THAT
IS 8 DAYS OUT...SO THE WET PATTERN CONTINUES FOR NOW.

08/MK


&&

.AVIATION...
18Z TAF DISCUSSION.

CURRENT AXIS OF MOST WIDESPREAD CONVECTION IS ACROSS WESTERN
ALABAMA AND IS EXPECTED TO DRIFT EASTWARD WITH THE UPPER-LEVEL
TROUGH THIS AFTERNOON. SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHRA AND TSRA ARE
ALSO DEVELOPING TO THE EAST OF THIS AREA. HAVE INCLUDED PREVAILING
SHRA AND VCTS AT ALL SITES AND TRIED TO TIME OUT BEST TIMING OF
TSRA WITH A TEMPO GROUP. FUTURE AMENDMENTS MAY NEED TO MAKE TSRA
PREVAILING OR PROLONG THE TEMPO GROUPS DEPENDING ON HOW CONVECTION
EVOLVES. SHRA AND TSRA WILL BECOME MORE ISOLATED THIS EVENING.
GIVEN THE CONTINUED MOIST ATMOSPHERE...EXCEPT LOW CLOUDS/FOG TO
DEVELOP ONCE AGAIN TOMORROW AM.

32/DAVIS

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...
/ISSUED 454 AM CDT THU MAY 28 2015/

THE PATTERN CONTINUES IN A STATUS QUO WITH AN ELONGATED ATLANTIC
RIDGE AND ALABAMA ON THE ONSHORE FLOW SIDE OF THE WEAK RIDGE OVER
THE SOUTHEAST U.S. IN THE LOWER LEVELS. IN THE UPPER LEVELS...A
SHORTWAVE WILL MOVE THROUGH THE SOUTHWEST FLOW TODAY WITH THE BEST
CHANCE FOR RAIN IN THE EAST HALF OF CENTRAL ALABAMA FOR TODAY AND
TONIGHT. THIS WAVE WILL WEAKEN AND MOVE OFF FOR FRIDAY AND POPS
SHOULD BE LOWER WITH LESS FOCUS FOR CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT BUT
STILL SCATTERED AND DIURNALLY BASED AS A LARGE SCALE TROUGH DIGS
INTO THE ROCKIES ON FRIDAY.

FOR FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT...RAIN CHANCES WILL
DECREASE BUT WE SHOULD SEE A POP GRADIENT WITH BETTER CHANCES IN
THE NORTHWEST AS A SURFACE FRONT SINKS SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE
CENTRAL U.S. AND THE UPPER MAIN TROUGH SHIFTS EASTWARD AND DIGS A
LITTLE FURTHER SOUTH.

FOR SUNDAY INTO MONDAY...A SURFACE FRONT WILL HAVE DEVELOPED
ACROSS THE CENTRAL U.S. BUT ONLY MAKE A LITTLE PROGRESS SOUTH AND
EASTWARD TO THE APPALACHIANS AND MID MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY THEN
INTO TEXAS. HOWEVER...ALTHOUGH THE FRONT MAY REACH ALABAMA
BRIEFLY...IT WILL LIKELY STALL AND PUSH NORTHWARD AND ONLY SCAPE
THE AREA. THE UPPER FLOW WILL GIVE LITTLE HELP AS THE LONGWAVE
TROUGH BUILDS OVER THE CENTRAL U.S. ON SUNDAY INTO MONDAY
EVENTUALLY BECOMING A CLOSED LOW OVER ARKANSAS AND LOUISIANA WITH
ALABAMA STAYING ON THE WET ONSHORE FLOW SIDE OF THE LOW. THIS WILL
KEEP SCATTERED CONVECTION POSSIBLE FOR EACH DAY WITH THE HELP OF
DIURNAL HEATING THROUGH AT THE VERY LEAST THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK
UNTIL THIS TROUGH ATTEMPTS TO OPEN UP AND WEAKEN. HOWEVER...THAT
IS 8 DAYS OUT...SO THE WET PATTERN CONTINUES FOR NOW.

08/MK

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GADSDEN     66  84  65  85  66 /  30  40  20  30  20
ANNISTON    67  84  65  85  66 /  30  40  20  20  20
BIRMINGHAM  68  84  67  86  68 /  30  40  20  30  20
TUSCALOOSA  68  87  68  86  68 /  20  40  20  40  30
CALERA      67  85  66  86  67 /  30  40  20  30  20
AUBURN      66  84  66  86  68 /  30  30  10  10  10
MONTGOMERY  68  88  67  89  69 /  30  30  20  20  10
TROY        66  87  65  89  68 /  30  30  10  10  10

&&

.BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$


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