Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Birmingham, AL
FXUS64 KBMX 231206 AAA
Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Birmingham AL
706 AM CDT SAT JUL 23 2016
For 12Z Aviation.
All of the guidance is showing a shortwave moving southwestward
from the Tennessee Valley this morning into Mississippi/Arkansas
this evening. This will lead to scattered convection once again,
with the best chances across the north. Current radar shows a few
showers from near Memphis to Chattanooga. With increased cloud
cover and convection, guidance temperatures have responded with
cooler numbers than previous days over much of the northern half
of the CWA. This brings about lower to mid 90s instead of upper
90s across the north with 95+ still likely in the south. Still
very humid as well but probably not "officially" reaching the heat
advisory criteria. Considering its a summer Saturday with lots of
outdoor activities, will let it ride for now.
Looking at next week we see a lot of subtle impulses within and
around the ridge as it slowly transitions its center back to the
southwestern conus. Isolated to scattered convection can be
expected each. Most of the activity will be diurnal, but some
showers/storms could linger into the night. Highs in the low/mid
90s and lows in the 70s. In the 6 to 8 day range there is a
temporary pattern change with a trough setting up over the
southeastern states which would bring in even better rain chances.
12Z TAF Discussion.
First off, some lingering low level moisture with some low cigs
at TCL/TOI and MVFR vsbys even with a bed of cirrus this am.
Models not much help this am and cirrus shield making it hard to
see stratus develop. This should end over the next couple of hours
after we get some mixing. Upper disturbance moving southwestward
from Tennessee into Mississippi and Alabama today. Best chances
will be across the northwest part of the state. By afternoon could
see some scattered TSRA activity pop up. Have VCTS mentioned at
18Z for all but MGM/TOI. Their chances are low and will likely
slide by them to the NW and will leave out/but monitor for now.
Scattered showers and thunderstorms are expected over the next
several days with highs in the 90s. Critical fire weather
thresholds are not expected to be met with no watches or warnings
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Gadsden 93 73 94 73 93 / 40 30 30 20 40
Anniston 93 74 94 73 93 / 30 30 30 20 40
Birmingham 93 76 95 76 94 / 40 30 30 20 40
Tuscaloosa 95 74 95 75 94 / 30 30 30 20 40
Calera 93 74 94 74 93 / 30 30 30 20 40
Auburn 94 75 94 74 92 / 20 30 30 20 30
Montgomery 96 75 96 75 95 / 20 20 30 20 40
Troy 94 73 93 73 92 / 20 20 30 20 30
Heat Advisory until 9 PM CDT this evening For all of Central