Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Birmingham, AL

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FXUS64 KBMX 300012
AFDBMX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
712 PM CDT SUN MAR 29 2015

.UPDATE...
FOR 00Z AVIATION.

&&

.AVIATION...
00Z TAF DISCUSSION.

MAIN THEME OF TAFS CONTINUE WITH APPROACHING FRONT LATE
TONIGHT/EARLY TOMORROW. HOWEVER...MADE SLIGHT CHANGES TO TAFS
BASED ON LATEST MODEL TIMING OF A RELATIVELY NARROW SYSTEM...WITH
VFR EXPECTED TO PREVAIL AT LEAST UNTIL 06Z EVEN AT NORTHERN SITES.
SIMILARLY DELAYED ONSET OF -RA/TSTMS BY A FEW HOURS...AND TRIED TO
COMPRESS THE TIME BELOW VFR DUE TO NARROWNESS OF FEATURE. ALTHOUGH
TAF LENGTH PRECLUDES IT...EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS TO WORK IN FROM N
TO S AFTER 18Z TOMORROW. MAINTAINED CONCEPT OF LIMITED PRECIP AT
MGM AND TOI AS WEAKENED FRONT PASSES THROUGH...BUT NOT AS CONFIDENT
WITH THAT ASPECT OF THE TAFS THERE AND MAY NEED TO ADD MORE
SIGNIFICANT PRECIP AND VIS RESTRICTIONS LATER.

GENERALLY LIGHT SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL VEER AND THEN SHIFT TO
NORTHWESTERLY BEHIND THE FRONT AS IT PASSES.

JD/02

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...
/ISSUED 259 PM CDT SUN MAR 29 2015/

WELL THE ADVERTISED COLD FRONT IS ON ITS WAY AND WILL MAKE IT INTO
THE AREA AFTER 9PM TONIGHT WITH BEST CHANCES OF RAIN AND SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORMS AFTER MIDNIGHT. THE BEST DYNAMICS REMAIN WELL NORTH
OF THE AREA...SO NOT EXPECTING ANY SEVERE WEATHER WITH THE FRONT
ITSELF. AS THE SYSTEM WORKS IN TO THE AREA IT WILL BEGIN TO SLOW
AND BECOME LESS ORGANIZED WITH THE RAIN. SO WHILE THERE IS
DEFINITE POPS FOR TONIGHT...LOOKS LIKE ONLY SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
STORMS ON MONDAY MORNING.

BY MONDAY AFTERNOON THE FRONT WILL BE IN THE SOUTHERN SECTIONS OF
THE AREA. THERE IS STILL A SMALL CHANCE AT SEEING SOME ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS IN THE AFTERNOON...SO CONTINUED WITH THAT FOR THE
SOUTHERN THIRD OF THE AREA. IF A STORM CAN STAY TOGETHER LONG
ENOUGH IN THE AFTERNOON...THERE IS A POTENTIAL FOR THE STORM TO
PRODUCE SOME HAIL...THUS A MARGINAL RISK IS IN PLACE ACROSS THE
FAR SOUTHERN COUNTIES. THINKING AT THIS POINT JUST A FEW STRONG
STORMS ARE POSSIBLE AND HAVE CONTINUED TO LEAVE OUT OF THE HWO IN
REGARDS TO ANY WIDESPREAD HAZARDOUS WEATHER.

THIS FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL REMAIN ENTRENCHED ACROSS THE AREA FOR
MUCH OF THIS WEEK...AS THE MAIN DYNAMICS LEAVE IT BEHIND. THIS IS
OF COURSE TYPICAL OF THIS TIME OF THE YEAR. WENT WITH ABOVE
NORMAL POPS FOR THE WEEK ALONG WITH WARMER TEMPERATURES...70S AND
80S.

THE NEXT BIG COLD FRONT WILL WORK CLOSE TO THE AREA OVERNIGHT
FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY. NOTHING STANDS OUT OF THE ORDINARY
WITH THIS FRONT EITHER...BUT IT WILL BE STRONG ENOUGH TO GET THE
AREA MAYBE A DAY OR TWO OF CLEARING BEFORE THE SOUTHERLY FLOW
LIFTS THE FRONT BACK NORTHWARD NEXT SUNDAY NIGHT MONDAY.

16

&&

.BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$


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