Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Birmingham, AL

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FXUS64 KBMX 011138
AFDBMX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
638 AM CDT FRI AUG 1 2014

.UPDATE...
FOR 12Z AVIATION.

&&

.DISCUSSION...

THIS MORNING WE HAVE ABUNDANT MID/UPPER LEVEL CLOUDS FOR THE MOST
PART ACROSS CENTRAL ALABAMA...WITH THE EXCEPTION OF SOME STRATUS
ACROSS THE FAR EASTERN COUNTIES OF THE STATE. NORTHEAST/EASTERLY
LIGHT LOW LEVEL FLOW OVERNIGHT HAS HELPED WITH THE STRATUS
TRANSPORT. THE CLOUD COVER AND WINDS HAVE KEPT TEMPERATURES MILDER
ACROSS THE EASTERN HALF OF THE STATE ESPECIALLY. A STALLED
BOUNDARY REMAINS ACROSS THE COAST. THE SURFACE LOW ASSOCIATED WITH
IT IS EXPECTED TO WAFFLE/ALONG THE COAST OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS.
OVERALL MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE WITH A FEW SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE TODAY WITH DAYTIME HEATING AND SOME WEAK
UPPER SHORTWAVES MOVING THROUGH THE BASE OF THE EASTERN U.S.
TROUGH.

AS WE MOVE INTO THE WEEKEND INTO THE FIRST PART OF NEXT WEEK...
TEMPERATURES WILL MODERATE AS THE COOLER FLOW IS CUT OFF WITH
WARMEST READINGS IN THE SOUTH/WEST AS SOME OF THE SOUTHEAST COULD
BE A DEGREE OR SO MILDER DEPENDING ON ONSET OF CONVECTION WITH THE
EAST FLOW. RAIN CHANCES SHOULD INCREASE AS WE MOVE INTO THE
WEEKEND AS THE SURFACE LOW ALONG THE COAST INTERACTS WITH WEAK
UPPER SHORTWAVES MOVING THROUGH THE BASE OF THE UPPER LOW PRESSURE
TROUGH OVER EASTERN CANADA THROUGH THE FIRST PART OF THE WEEKEND.
ALSO...THE UPPER TROUGH SHOULD DIG DECENTLY ACROSS THE
SOUTHEASTERN U.S. AS WE PROGRESS THROUGH THE WEEKEND AS THE MAIN
LOW MOVES INTO THE ATLANTIC SUNDAY INTO MONDAY.

BY TUESDAY...THE REMAINING ENERGY FROM THE UPPER TROUGH LOOKS TO
WEAKEN WITH A FLATTENING FLOW BY WEDNESDAY ACROSS THE NORTHEAST
U.S. AND RIDGING BUILDING OVER THE SOUTHWEST U.S. AND THE
EASTERN GULF INTO THE CARIBBEAN WITH VERY WEAK FLOW IN BETWEEN AS
WE MOVE INTO MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. THUS...WE ARE LOOKING TO RETURN
TO A MORE SUMMERTIME LIKE DIURNALLY INFLUENCED PATTERN.

AT THIS TIME WE ARE NOT LOOKING AT ANY BIG IMPACTS FROM BERTHA AS
SHE SHOULD REMAIN FAR TO THE EAST OF ALABAMA OVER THE CARIBBEAN
AND ATLANTIC.

08/MK

&&

.AVIATION...
12Z TAF DISCUSSION.

LITTLE CHANGE IS EXPECTED THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD WITH WIDESPREAD
MID-LEVEL CLOUDS PERSISTING. SPOTTY LIGHT SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE BUT
CONFIDENCE IN TIMING AND LOCATION IS TOO LOW TO INCLUDE ANYTHING
SPECIFIC IN THE TAFS. REGARDLESS...VIS/CIGS SHOULD NOT BE GREATLY
IMPACTED BY SHOWER ACTIVITY. WILL MONITOR THE IFR/MVFR STRATUS
DECK CREEPING WESTWARD ACROSS EAST ALABAMA FOR POSSIBLE AMENDMENTS
AT KTOI AND KMGM...BUT FOR NOW WILL ONLY SHOW THIS AFFECTING
KANB THROUGH 17Z.

87/GRANTHAM

&&

.BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

08/87





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