Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS North Platte, NE

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FXUS63 KLBF 271216 AAA
AFDLBF

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service North Platte NE
716 AM CDT SAT AUG 27 2016

...Updated Aviation Section...

.SHORT TERM...(Today and tonight)
Issued at 352 AM CDT Sat Aug 27 2016

The main concerns in the short term were the occurrence and
likelihood of fog rest of tonight and this morning,
shower/thunderstorm chances, and temperatures. 11-3.9 micron
satellite product currently shows fog/stratus across portions of
southwest NE to north central NE. Wherein, web cams and sfc obs
denote localized dense fog across portions of the forecast area.
Current visibility restrictions around the CWA include one
quarter mile or less at KLBF and KVTN, half mile at KTIF, and a
half mile at KIML. With respect to areal coverage, dense fog is
expected to be localized (patchy) with areas of fog above a mile
more prevalent. In general, the situation is favorable and could
be attributable to light winds this morning, decent radiational
cooling with low cloud cover, and residual moisture in the
boundary layer. Fog should dissipate by mid morning followed by
mostly sunny skies.

Currently, a mid-level trough is over the northern and central
Plains and over the next 24 hours will be moving northeast into
the upper Great Lakes. A strong 500 hPa short wave and associated
vort lobe is present across the eastern Dakotas and will be
moving to far western MN by this evening. To our north, there is
a decent belt of mid-level westerlies, with the forecast area on
the periphery of this mid-level flow. Otherwise, moderate height
rises will be occurring over western and north central NE today
and tonight as ridging occurs aloft behind the exiting upper
level trough. Elsewhere, a surface trough will develop lee side
of the central Rockies over the central High Plains extending
from the northern High Plains, a subtle trough will also extend
eastward across/near the NE-SD border. Generally, dry conditions
are expected across the forecast area. However, there is some
concern for a possible isolated thunderstorm or two in portions
of north central NE today given the combination of instability
and decent insolation, low-level moisture with surface dew points
in upper 50s/lower 60s, and weak convergence. SPC SSEO does
indicate this possibility, with members showing development in
portions of north central NE later today. As such, introduced
slight chances PoPs but will continue to evaluate/monitor this.
Generally, quiet conditions are then expected tonight with mostly
clear skies anticipated.

.LONG TERM...(Sunday through Friday)
Issued at 352 AM CDT Sat Aug 27 2016

Ridge expands across the area to start the week. 850 mb temps
surge into the lower to mid 20s C with guidance in the mid 80s to
lower 90s. Exception to this is Sunday where the NAM is a little
slower to bring the warm air and is about 3 to 5 degrees cooler.
Forecast follows closer to a blend of guidance. A weak
disturbance will push across KS into eastern Nebraska late in the
day on Sunday with a chance for thundershowers across southwest
into central Nebraska. The active weather continues with
additional waves Monday and Tuesday with models continuing to
favor southwest into central Nebraska and points to the
southeast.

Early Wed a weak cold front to push across the area bringing a
slight cool down to more seasonal temps. The cool down will be
short lived as the upper level ridge will quickly rebuild and
temps rebound back into the mid 80s to around 90 to end the week,
which is about 5 degrees above seasonal averages. While not
great confidence, models continue to show pockets of QPF with
weak disturbances. Cannot rule them out so will continue the low
pops, mainly in the east were better low level moisture exists.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Sunday morning)
Issued at 716 AM CDT Sat Aug 27 2016

Areas of dense fog, one quarter mile or less, or fog less than
one mile with low ceilings continues to persist across portions
of the forecast area this morning. Fog is expected to dissipate by
mid morning. Mostly sunny skies and VFR conditions are then
expected to prevail the rest of the day after fog
dissipates/lifts. There is some potential for fog development at
the end of the TAF period, however, confidence in development is
low and this is attributable to elevated winds speeds (greater
than 5 kts) and boundary layer turbulence.

&&

.LBF Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
Dense Fog Advisory until 9 AM CDT /8 AM MDT/ this morning for
NEZ005>010-025>029-036>038-057>059-069>071.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...ET
LONG TERM...Masek
AVIATION...ET



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