000
FXUS63 KLBF 211520
AFDLBF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTH PLATTE NE
1020 AM CDT TUE MAY 21 2013

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1019 AM CDT TUE MAY 21 2013

FORECAST HAS BEEN UPDATED FOR WINDS THROUGH THE DAY. SURFACE LOW
CENTERED OVER EAST CENTRAL SOUTH DAKOTA THIS MORNING HAS ENHANCED
THE PRESSURE GRADIENT OVER NEBRASKA...WITH WINDS NOW BLOWING AT 20
TO 30 MPH WITH GUSTS UP TOWARDS 40 MPH IN PLACES. MODELS ARE
INDICATING WINDS WILL PEAK FROM NOW THROUGH AROUND 20Z...THEN AS
THE LOW SHIFTS EAST...THE STRONGER WINDS WILL SHIFT EASTWARD AS
WELL. AFTERNOON MIXING...WITH STRONG WINDS JUST ABOVE THE SURFACE
WILL KEEP THE WINDS UP THROUGH THE AFTERNOON...WITH A DECREASING
TREND THIS EVENING. THERE ARE A FEW SPOTS THAT HAVE BRIEFLY
REACHED WIND ADVISORY CRITERIA...BUT THINKING THIS WILL NOT BE
WIDESPREAD ENOUGH...OR WITH LONG ENOUGH DURATION AND WILL BE RIGHT
AT THE LOWER THRESHOLD FOR A WIND ADVISORY IF LOCATIONS DO HIT
ADVISORY CRITERIA WITH SUSTAINED AT 30 MPH AND GUSTS OVER 40 MPH.

OTHERWISE...TEMPERATURES ARE ON TREND...WITH HIGHS ONLY EXPECTED
IN THE UPPER 50S AND LOW 60S AS QUITE A BIT OF CLOUD COVER WILL BE
IN PLACE THROUGH THE DAY. ISOLATED TO SCATTERED LIGHT SHOWERS IN
THE FORECAST ARE ALSO ON TRACK AS THEY ROTATE AROUND THE LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM. SO NO CHANGES IN THE PRECIPITATION FORECAST FOR
THE DAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 357 AM CDT TUE MAY 21 2013

TODAY AND TONIGHT...
MORE WRAP AROUND CLOUDINESS AND SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED TODAY HOWEVER
THE RADAR RETURNS ARE NOT NEARLY AS PROLIFIC AS THEY WERE SUNDAY
NIGHT AND MONDAY. THUS RAINFALL SHOULD BE LIGHT WITH TOTALS OF 1/10
OF AN INCH. THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM ACROSS THE NRN PLAINS IS FCST TO
FILL AND WOBBLE SOUTH THROUGH SWRN MN AND NRN IA TODAY AND THEN OPEN
UP TONIGHT. THE SHOWERS/LIGHT RAIN WOULD THEN PUSH AS FAR SOUTH AS
HIGHWAY 2 DURING THE DAY TODAY AND THEN LIFT NORTHEAST TONIGHT.

WINDS CONTINUE STRONG TODAY BUT SHOULD REMAIN BELOW 30 MPH. THE RAP
IS SUGGESTING THE STRONGEST WINDS NEAR KVTN AND A BLEND OF THE MAV
AND MET GUIDANCE KEEPS THE WINDS BELOW ADVISORY CRITERIA. THIS AREA
WILL BE UNDER THE STRONGEST SFC PRESSURE GRADIENT BUT THE RAP 500M
AGL WINDS ARE AROUND 26 KTS WHICH EQUATES TO 26 MPH AT THE SFC.
WINDS ARE ALSO FCST TO WEAKEN MID TO LATE AFTN.

VERY COOL HIGHS ARE EXPECTED TODAY IN THE CLOUDINESS AND COOL AIR
ALOFT. LOWER 50S TO MID 60S IS ALL WE WILL MANAGE AND LOWS TONIGHT
FALL INTO THE 40S WITH UPPER 30S ACROSS THE ERN PANHANDLE.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 357 AM CDT TUE MAY 21 2013

WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT...
AS UPPER LOW MOVES SLOWLY ACROSS IOWA ON WEDNESDAY...STILL SUPPORTIVE
OF A FEW SHOWERS IN THE NORTHEAST WEDNESDAY MORNING. MOISTURE WILL
BECOME SHALLOWER THROUGH THE DAY AND VERY LITTLE LIFT INDICATED.
AS SURFACE HIGH BUILDS IN...WINDS WILL VEER TO THE NORTH AND BE
LIGHTER THAN THE PAST FEW DAYS AT 5 TO 15 MPH. AN UPPER RIDGE WILL
ALSO BUILD INTO THE CNTRL ROCKIES WEDNESDAY IN RESPONSE TO A
SUBSTANTIAL CLOSED LOW DIGGING INTO THE PAC NW. TIME SECTIONS
INDICATE PARTLY CLOUDY SOUTHWESTERN HALF OF FA...WHILE NORTHEAST
TO STAY OVERCAST. ONLY A MINOR CHANGE TO HIGHS WEDNESDAY FROM
60-64 NCTRL TO 65-72 SOUTHWEST. EASTERLY UPSLOPE WINDS WEDNESDAY
NIGHT MAY RESULT IN STRATUS AND/OR FOG DEVELOPMENT. FOR THURSDAY...
THE UPPER RIDGE AXIS WILL BECOME CENTERED ACROSS THE CENTRAL U.S.
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING INTO THE NRN AND CNTRL MISSISSIPPI
VALLEY TO BRING INCREASING SOUTHEAST WINDS 15 TO 25 MPH. LOOKS
PARTLY CLOUDY WEST TO MOSTLY SUNNY EAST. WITH ABSENCE OF STRATUS
TEMPERATURES WILL WARM UP MOST ACROSS THE NORTH CENTRAL INTO THE
UPPER 60S...WHILE THE SOUTHWEST SIMILAR IN THE UPPER 60S/NEAR 70.
NEXT CHANCE FOR SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORM THURSDAY NIGHT AS GULF
MOISTURE RETURNS NORTH UP THE HIGH PLAINS. PRONOUNCED
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT INTO WESTERN NEBRASKA SUPPORTIVE OF 20-30
POPS SOUTHWESTERN HALF OF FA.

FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY...
AN UNSETTLED WEATHER PATTERN WILL SET UP AS AN UPPER TROUGH
REMAINS ACROSS THE WESTERN U.S AND A RIDGE ACROSS THE CENTRAL
CONUS. ABUNDANT LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL INCREASE WITH H85
DEWPOINTS FROM 12-15C AT TIMES FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY. LOCATION OF
THE SURFACE FRONT NOT IN VERY GOOD AGREEMENT. STILL...THE PRESENCE OF
A NOCTURNAL LOW LEVEL JET WILL ALLOW FOR THUNDERSTORMS TO POSSIBLY
DEVELOP INTO AN MCS ACROSS THE REGION EACH NIGHT. HIGHS IN THE 70S
FRIDAY WILL WARM TO THE UPPER 70S TO MID 80S SATURDAY THROUGH
MONDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 626 AM CDT TUE MAY 21 2013

MVFR CIGS SHOULD CONTINUE ALONG AND NORTH OF NEBRASKA HIGHWAY 2 TODAY
AND TONIGHT IN PERIODS OF LIGHT RAIN OR DRIZZLE. SOUTH OF HIGHWAY
2...GENERALLY VFR IS EXPECTED TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT.


&&

.LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...BROOKS
SHORT TERM...CDC
LONG TERM...ROBERG
AVIATION...CDC