Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS North Platte, NE

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FXUS63 KLBF 220148 AAA

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service North Platte NE
848 PM CDT Thu Sep 21 2017

Issued at 317 PM CDT Thu Sep 21 2017

Jose and Maria still to the east underneath ridge. Deep trough
extends from upper Hudson Bay through central Canada into Northern


Issued at 844 PM CDT Thu Sep 21 2017

Red Flag Warning allowed to expire. Critical fire weather
conditions no longer expected over southwest NEB as temperatures
cool resulting in increasing relative humidity combined with winds


.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Friday)
Issued at 317 PM CDT Thu Sep 21 2017

Transition continues with the upper pattern and deep trough
through the western Conus. Gulf has opened and has begun to return
moisture across the southern into central plains today with main
moisture stream across Missouri into the Great Lakes. Very dry air
over the southwest this afternoon with rhs dipping to around 10
percent. See fire weather discussion below. Low level jet will
increase tonight with strong southerly flow beginning this
evening. Moisture will begin to advect north into the area across
the central plains. Much warmer over night lows forecast with lows
ranging from 70 at Oneill to 45 at Gordon to 55 at Imperial.
Record highs expected tomorrow ahead of the front with low 90s
from Imperial through North Platte to Oneill. Upper jet and Low
level jet ahead of the system will bring increased chances of
thunderstorms through the afternoon into early evening from Curtis
to Broken Bow to Oneill. Better chances severe over North central
with jet dynamics and deeper moisture.

.LONG TERM...(Friday night through Thursday)
Issued at 317 PM CDT Thu Sep 21 2017

As upper trough approaches from the west and increased moisture
advection into central plains through the weekend a prolonged
period of moderate to heavy rain through southwest into North
central Nebraska expected. PWATS around 2 standard deviations
above normals. Highs Saturday in the 60s and 70s cooling into the
50s Monday. Upper trough moves across and out of the forecast
area through Tuesday with drying and warming conditions through
mid week. By Thursday highs back in the 70s.


.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Friday evening)
Issued at 608 PM CDT Thu Sep 21 2017

Latest satellite imagery shows clear skies overhead. Initial
concerns revolve around LLWS conditions overnight then slight
chances for thunderstorms tomorrow afternoon. Surface plot shows
largely modest southerly breezes occurring across much of the
area with gusts generally to 20 kts, except lighter winds across
the eastern Panhandle and northwest NEB. Winds will lessen
tonight, however, a developing low-level jet across KS and NEB
will prompt LLWS conditions with the greatest impacts expected in
the east of the local forecast area. LLWS conditions will diminish
in the early morning. Modest southerly winds expected tomorrow,
except lighter across the eastern Panhandle and northwest NEB.
Slight chances for thunderstorms tomorrow afternoon, however,
higher chances/greater confidence exists for thunderstorms in the
evening hours.


Issued at 317 PM CDT Thu Sep 21 2017

Took awhile but red flag conditions met over the southwest this
afternoon will continue Red Flag warning. Conditions favorable
again Friday afternoon over southwest Nebraska again but Winds are


Issued at 317 PM CDT Thu Sep 21 2017

Have reduced flows coming out of McConaughy today. High flows
continue above McConaughy and RVS continued at Lewellen.




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