Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS North Platte, NE

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000
FXUS63 KLBF 220537
AFDLBF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTH PLATTE NE
1237 AM CDT TUE JUL 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 243 PM CDT MON JUL 21 2014

A VERY STRONG UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL
CONTINUE ACROSS THE SWRN U.S. DURING THE NEXT 7 DAYS. THIS RIDGE
WILL BECOME REORIENTED AND PRODUCE NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT ACROSS THE
FCST AREA  ALLOWING COOL AIR TO MOVE SOUTH OUT OF CANADA. NEAR OR
SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND DRY WEATHER ARE EXPECTED
TUESDAY THROUGH MONDAY.

&&

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1145 PM CDT MON JUL 21 2014

THUNDERSTORMS STARTING TO FIRE ALONG BOUNDARY MOVING SOUTH INTO
NORTHERN NEBRASKA FROM SOUTH DAKOTA SO HAVE EXPANDED THUNDERSTORM
CHANCES THROUGH THE SANDHILLS AND NORTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 1100 PM CDT MON JUL 21 2014

UPDATED TO EXPAND THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH TIME AND TERRITORY.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 808 PM CDT MON JUL 21 2014

UPDATED TO DROP HEAT ADVISORY AS HEAT INDEXES HAVE IMPROVED.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 651 PM CDT MON JUL 21 2014

UPDATED FORECAST TO ACCOUNT FOR THUNDERSTORMS MOVING IN TO THE
EASTERN NEBRASKA PANHANDLE. HIGH BASED STORMS WITH WIND THE MAIN
THREAT.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 243 PM CDT MON JUL 21 2014

STALLED BOUNDARY ACROSS SOUTHWEST INTO NORTHEAST NEBRASKA. SHOWERS
HAVE DEVELOPED ALONG THE BOUNDARY...ALTHOUGH BASES ARE HIGH...15K FT
OR HIGHER. HAVE HAD A FEW LIGHTNING STRIKES WITH THE
ACTIVITY...ALTHOUGH INVERTED V SOUNDING SUGGESTS LITTLE PRECIP TO
REACH THE GROUND AND POSSIBLY SOME GUSTY WINDS. ALL THE ACTIVITY IS
EXPECTED TO DIMINISH QUICKLY TONIGHT AS TEMPS COOL.

OVERNIGHT A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL SIDE SOUTH ACROSS THE
AREA...ALTHOUGH THE DRY AIR SHOULD BE STRONG ENOUGH TO KEEP ANYTHING
BUT AN INCREASE OF CLOUDS. MILD LOWS WITH MOST AREAS IN THE MID TO
UPPER 60S...HOWEVER N CENTRAL COULD HOLD IN THE LOWER 70S.

TOMORROW COOLER TEMPS ALOFT SLIDE IN BEHIND THE FRONT...DROPPING 850
MB TEMP FROM AROUND 30C TO THE MID 20S C. COOLEST TEMPS ACROSS THE
NORTH WHERE HIGHS CLOSER TO 90 EXPECTED. SW NEBRASKA SHOULD STILL BE
NEAR THE WARM AIR WITH HIGHS IN THE MID TO UPPER 90S.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 243 PM CDT MON JUL 21 2014

TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY...CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD
THROUGH THE UPPER MIDWEST TUESDAY NIGHT PRODUCING EAST AND NORTHEAST
WINDS AND COOLER TEMPERATURES. LOWS IN THE LOWER 60S ARE EXPECTED
WEDNESDAY MORNING. BOTH THE GFS AND NAM BUFFER SOUNDINGS SHOW
EASTERLIES BELOW 800MB IN THE PLATTE VALLEY AND ACROSS WESTERN NEB
WITH DEW POINTS IN THE LOWER 60S WHICH COULD PRODUCE A PERIOD OF
STRATUS WEDNESDAY MORNING.

MORE SOUTHERLY WINDS TAKE HOLD WEDNESDAY WITH LOW PRESSURE FORMING
ON THE NRN HIGH PLAINS. A DEEP UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL COME ASHORE AND
THIS UPPER LOW WILL HOLD THE SFC LOW ON THE HIGH PLAINS UNTIL
THURSDAY. H850MB TEMPS ARE IN THE TEENS AND 20S CELSIUS WEDNESDAY
FOR HIGHS IN THE 80S EAST TO LOWER 90S WEST. THE MODELS CONTINUE TO
SUGGEST THE POTENTIAL FOR ISOLATED TSTMS ACROSS WRN NEB LATE
WEDNESDAY WITH A PLUME OF 40+C K INDICES.

THE MODELS SHOW THIS PLUME MIGRATING EAST OVERNIGHT AND THURSDAY
WHICH COULD SUPPORT ISOLATED TSTMS AGAIN THURSDAY...MAINLY ALONG AND
EAST OF HIGHWAY 83. HIGHS THURSDAY RISE INTO THE UPPER 80S EAST TO
UPPER 90S WEST. A DRY LINE SHOULD SURGE EAST DURING THE AFTN TO NEAR
HIGHWAY 83. THERE MAY EVEN BE SOME ISOLATED HIGH BASED TSTMS
DEVELOPING ACROSS SWRN NEB BEHIND THE DRYLINE.

THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY...THE MODELS SHOW THE DEEP PACIFIC LOW
COMING ASHORE...TRACKING THROUGH SRN CANADA AND THEN DROPPING INTO
THE GREAT LAKES AND SLOWLY FILLING. THIS WILL SEND A STRONG CANADIAN
COLD FRONT THROUGH THE FCST AREA AND SETS UP A NORTHWEST FLOW
ALOFT.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1236 AM CDT TUE JUL 22 2014

PERSISTENT ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE INTO THE EARLY
MORNING HOURS OVER THE WESTERN NEBRASKA SANDHILLS AS A WEAK COOL
FRONT MOVES TO THE SOUTH. THUNDERSTORMS THAT DEVELOP WILL BE HIGH
BASED AOA 12KFT. WINDS WILL BE VARIABLE AND MAY BE QUITE STRONG IN
THE VICINITY OF ANY STORMS. STORMS SHOULD STAY WELL TO THE NORTH OF
KLBF TAF SITE AND HAVE LEFT OUT OF TAF BUT KVTN IS ANOTHER STORY.
DEVELOPING STORMS TO THE WEST ALONG THE BORDER WILL MOVE TO THE EAT
THROUGH THE EARLY MORNING AND HAVE INCLUDED THUNDERSTORMS IN THE
VICINITY. CLEARING SKIES TUESDAY MORNING AND NOT AS HOT WITH EAST TO
NORTHEAST WINDS.

&&

.LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...POWER
SYNOPSIS...CDC
SHORT TERM...MASEK
LONG TERM...CDC
AVIATION...POWER





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