Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS North Platte, NE

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000
FXUS63 KLBF 061206
AFDLBF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTH PLATTE NE
706 AM CDT MON JUL 6 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 357 AM CDT MON JUL 6 2015

TODAY MAIN FORECAST CHALLENGE IS THE AREAL COVERAGE OF CONVECTION
AS UPPER DYNAMICS MOVE EAST BY NOONTIME CDT. AT 08Z THE SURFACE
BOUNDARY WAS LOCATED OVER EASTERN NEB WHILE THE SURFACE HIGH
CENTERED OVER WESTERN MONTANA WAS RIDGING SOUTH OVER THE
INTERMOUNTAIN REGION. BY NOON THE H5 SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVES EAST
WITH INCREASED RIDGING AND SUBSIDENCE THAT WILL RESULT IN
CLEARING INTO THE AFTERNOON. TEMPERATURES WILL START OUT IN THE
60S TODAY AND RISE SOME 10 TO 15 DEGREES...WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES
ONLY IN THE 70S.

TONIGHT THE SURFACE HIGH BUILDS EAST ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS
AND RIDGES SOUTHWEST TO OVER NORTHEAST COLORADO. THE FRONT WILL
BACK WEST TO ALONG THE FRONT RANGE FOR QUIET WEATHER OVERNIGHT AS
TEMPERATURES FALL BACK INTO THE MIDDLE 50S.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 357 AM CDT MON JUL 6 2015

MID WEEK FORECAST DOMINATED BY UNSEASONABLY COOL TEMPERATURES AND
A COUPLE OF DISTURBANCES LIFTING NE ACROSS THE AREA. HIGHS ON
TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY WILL HOLD IN THE 70S...WELL BELOW THE
AVERAGE OF UPPER 80S TO AROUND 90. RAIN CHANCES NOT ALL THAT
GREAT HOWEVER BY TUESDAY WITH THE SFC HIGH TO THE
EAST...SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL BEGIN A SLOW INCREASE OF MOISTURE.
DISTURBANCE TO LIFT ACROSS THE AREA AND WILL LIKELY SEE SOME
DEVELOPMENT ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN TO THE WEST...THEN ACTIVITY
WILL PUSH E/NE. NOT GREAT DYNAMICS OVER THE CWA AND STORMS WILL
BE ON THE DEMISE AS THEY MOVE THIS WAY...THUS LOW POPS.

BY THE END OF THE WEEK AN UPPER LEVEL CAL LOW WILL BEGIN TO LIFT
NORTH IN CONJUNCTION WITH A BUILDING RIDGE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN
PLAINS. STILL SEEING AN ACTIVE PATTERN WITH DISTURBANCES LIFTING
ACROSS THE AREA IN SOUTHWEST FLOW...HOWEVER TEMPS WILL BE ON THE
RISE. MODELS STILL SHOWING SOME DIFFERENCES ON THE SPEED OF THE
REBUILDING RIDGE AND THE POSITION OF THE RIDGE AXIS...WHICH
RESULTS IN LOWER CONFIDENCE IN THE EXTENDED FORECAST. HIGHS
LIKELY WARM INTO THE 80S WITH MANY SEEING 90S OVER THE WEEKEND.
IF RIDGE IS STRONG ENOUGH MID AND UPPER 90S ARE POSSIBLE.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 700 AM CDT MON JUL 6 2015

LOW CEILINGS WILL SLOWLY LIFT TODAY FROM MARGINAL VISUAL FLIGHT
RULES TO VISUAL FLIGHT RULES BY EVENING. ISOLATED SHOWERS WILL BE
ENCOUNTERED THROUGH NOONTIME AS THE MAIN UPPER TROUGH MOVING
EAST...THEN AS THE SURFACE HIGH AND SHORT WAVE RIDGING ALOFT
BUILDS EASTWARD THIS AFTERNOON DRIER WEATHER AND FEWER CLOUDS
BEYOND 07/00Z.

&&

.LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...KECK
LONG TERM...MASEK
AVIATION...KECK






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