Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS North Platte, NE

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FXUS63 KLBF 221843

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service North Platte NE
1243 PM CST Sun Jan 22 2017

.SHORT TERM...(Today and tonight)
Issued at 305 AM CST Sun Jan 22 2017

Good confidence in the short term forecast today. I will trend the
near term to the NAM solution. After very warm air at 850mb
yesterday with 4c over southwest through north central Nebraska we
will see temperatures cool from 1c to 2c at 850mb today. Some early
morning clouds west with clearing skies through the day and cold air
advection with deep northwest flow...only expect temperatures from
40 to 45 across the forecast area today. Mostly clear skies tonight
with winds becoming southerly in advance of organizing system
over the Rockies. Low temperatures falling to around 20.

.LONG TERM...(Monday through Saturday)
Issued at 305 AM CST Sun Jan 22 2017

Main concern for this forecast period continues to be
the upcoming potential winter storm to affect the Northern Plains.
The system should arrive in our forecast area by Tuesday morning and
continue to affect our forecast area until Wednesday afternoon.

Latest model runs continue to have inconsistencies in the location
of the low pressure system. Most models continue to suggest north
central Nebraska will be the area of greatest potential for
snowfall...especially along the South Dakota/Nebraska border.
Looking at 850 to 700 millibar thickness levels the main
precipitation type should be all snow.

Another concern will be as the low deepens and continues to move
eastward winds will increase with sustained winds around 20 to 30
mph across north central Nebraska. These strong winds have the
potential to create areas of patchy blowing snow.

As for southwest Nebraska at this time have left pops in...depending
on the track may need to adjust...will continue to monitor the
system as it gets closer.

Wednesday evening through Saturday continues to look quiet but
cooler with highs in the mid 20s and 30s through Friday to low 40s
by Saturday.


.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Monday afternoon)
Issued at 1235 PM CST Sun Jan 22 2017

VFR will prevail all areas through tonight. Clear skies will
gradually give way to a BKN mid level cloud deck on Monday.
Northwest winds 10 to 15 KTS today will switch to south 10 to 15
KTS Monday.


Issued at 305 AM CST Sun Jan 22 2017

The North Platte river above Lake McConaughy will remain elevated
due to ice jamming.




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