Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS North Platte, NE

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000
FXUS63 KLBF 270441
AFDLBF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTH PLATTE NE
1141 PM CDT THU MAR 26 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 352 PM CDT THU MAR 26 2015

SURFACE LOW OVER CENTRAL NEBRASKA WITH ASSOCIATED WARM FRONT AND
WARM FRONTAL SHOWERS MOVING EAST OVER NORTHEAST NEBRASKA. UPPER
HIGH OVER WESTERN CONUS WITH STRONG RIDGE INTO THE WESTERN
CANADIAN PROVINCES. TROUGH THROUGH GREAT LAKES INTO MISSOURI RIVER
VALLEY WITH STRONG COLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY AHEAD OF THE TROUGH FROM
THE NORTHEAST CONUS THROUGH ALABAMA.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 352 PM CDT THU MAR 26 2015

PRIMARY FORECAST CONCERNS THROUGH FRIDAY ARE TEMPERATURES TONIGHT
AND FRIDAY AND PRECIPITATION CHANCES OVERNIGHT TONIGHT AND FRIDAY
MORNING.

AT 20Z THURSDAY WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWED A STRONG RIDGE OVER THE
WESTERN CONUS WITH A DEEP LONGWAVE TROUGH FROM HUDSON BAY DOWN INTO
THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. THIS PATTERN PUT THE LOCAL AREA IN
NORTH/NORTHWEST FLOW. AT THE SURFACE...LOW PRESSURE WAS LOCATED OVER
CENTRAL NEBRASKA WITH A WARM FRONT EXTENDING FROM THE LOW DOWN INTO
WESTERN KANSAS. AN INVERTED COLD FRONT EXTENDED NORTH FROM THE LOW
INTO WESTERN SOUTH DAKOTA. ADDITIONALLY...HIGH PRESSURE WAS CENTERED
OVER NORTHEAST NORTH DAKOTA WITH AN ASSOCIATED BACKDOOR COLD FRONT
THAT HAD PUSHED SOUTH INTO NORTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA THIS AFTERNOON.
BEHIND THE BACKDOOR COLD FRONT...TEMPERATURES REMAINED COLD THROUGH
THE DAY AS THE AIRMASS WAS WELL COLDER AND CLOUDS AND PRECIPITATION
WERE OBSERVED MUCH OF THE DAY. PRECIPITATION WAS LIGHT...BUT WITH
THE COLDER AIR...HAD FALLEN AS SNOW FOR PORTIONS OF THE AREA.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD SOUTH DOWN THROUGH THE MISSOURI RIVER
VALLEY TONIGHT WITH SOUTHERLY FLOW DEVELOPING IN THE LOW LEVELS
ACROSS WESTERN NEBRASKA. AS THIS OCCURS...THE BACKDOOR COLD FRONT
WILL PUSH SOUTHWEST WITH COLDER AIR MOVING BACK WEST OVERNIGHT. THIS
WILL KEEP 850MB TEMPERATURES AT A RANGE FROM -5C OVER NORTH CENTRAL
NEBRASKA TO NEAR 3C OVER THE PANHANDLE. THE STRONGEST TEMPERATURE
GRADIENT WILL BE OVER WESTERN NEBRASKA OVERNIGHT...WITH A GOOD
FRONTOGENESIS SIGNAL DEVELOPING. ALSO...MOISTURE IN THIS GRADIENT
INCREASES WITH THE SOUTHERLY LOW TO MID LEVEL FLOW SO WITH THE
COMBINATION OF MOISTURE AND LIFT PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED TO
DEVELOP DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. THE FRONTOGENESIS SIGNAL WILL
MOVE EASTWARD THROUGH THE DAY FRIDAY AS A WARM FRONT PUSHES BACK TO
THE EAST. THE TREND FOR PRECIPITATION DOES THE SAME AND BY LATE
AFTERNOON FRIDAY THE FORECAST IS DRY. FORECAST UPPER AIR SOUNDINGS
INDICATE PRECIPITATION TYPE WILL BE AS RAIN OR SNOW THROUGH FRIDAY
MORNING. LOCATIONS FURTHER NORTH AND EAST MAY BE COLD ENOUGH FOR ALL
SNOW BUT AS THERE IS A BIT OF UNCERTAINTY LEFT THE FORECAST WITH A
MIX AT THIS TIME...WITH A CHANGE TO RAIN IN THE AFTERNOON.

AS FOR TEMPERATURES...DESPITE THE COLD AIR IN PLACE TONIGHT...CLOUD
COVER WILL HELP KEEP TEMPERATURES FROM GETTING TOO COLD. MOST AREAS
SHOULD STILL SEE LOWS DROP TO NEAR OR BELOW THE FREEZING POINT DOWN
INTO THE MID 20S OVER THE EASTERN PARTS OF THE FORECAST AREA. THEN
ON FRIDAY...THE WARM FRONT LOOKS TO ONLY MAKE IT ABOUT AS FAR EAST
AS A LINE FROM NEAR AINSWORTH TO NEAR BRADY. EAST OF THE
FRONT...TEMPERATURES WILL BE COOLER AGAIN WITH MUCH WARMER
TEMPERATURES BEHIND IT. ONE THING TO MENTION IS THAT IF CLOUD COVER
STAYS IN PLACE AS IT HAS THE PAST FEW DAYS...THE CURRENT FORECAST
MAY BE TOO HIGH SO UPCOMING SHIFT MAY NEED TO MONITOR AND LOWER IF
NEEDED.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 352 PM CDT THU MAR 26 2015

PACIFIC HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE A WARM FRONT ACROSS NEBRASKA
FRIDAY NIGHT WITH WARMER THAN NORMAL OVER NIGHT LOWS. SOME WARM
ADVECTION SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE WITH THE BOUNDARY BUT MOISTURE
LIMITED AND HAVE LEFT FORECAST DRY FOR NOW. STRONG WARM AIR
ADVECTION SATURDAY WITH POSSIBLE FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS. ONEIL IN
THE 60S ALONG THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY 70S OVER THE REMAINDER OF
WESTERN NEBRASKA WITH SOME LOW 80S AROUND KIML. SATURDAY NIGHT
EARLY SUNDAY MORNING COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE WITH LIMITED MOISTURE
AND HAVE LEFT DRY FOR NOW. SUNDAY COOLER WITH HIGHS IN THE 60S.
SIMILAR CONDITIONS OVER WESTERN NEBRASKA MONDAY AND TUESDAY AS
SOUTHERN SYSTEM MOVES ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. HIGHS IN THE 70S
AND DRY. TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY ANOTHER COOL FRONT MOVES
ACROSS WESTERN NEBRASKA WITH CHANCES FOR SHOWERS WEDNESDAY AND
THURSDAY COOLER WITH HIGHS IN THE 60S.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1140 PM CDT THU MAR 26 2015

MOIST AIR LIFTING UP OVER A NEARLY STATIONARY FRONT WILL BRING LIGHT
RAIN OR SNOW TO WESTERN NEBRASKA AFTER 09Z. CEILINGS WITH THE
PRECIPITATION ARE LIKELY TO BE LESS THAN 1000 FEET AGL WITH
VISIBILITY AT OR BELOW 3SM. THE VERTICAL TEMPERATURE PROFILE STILL
COULD FAVOR RAIN...SNOW OR A MIX IN CENTRAL NEBRASKA JUST WEST OF
LBF...TIF AND VTN BUT IT LOOKS TO FAVOR SNOW IN THE WEST NEAR OGA.
THE NEWEST OF THE SHORT TERM MODEL OUTPUT KEEPS THE MEASURABLE
PRECIPITATION WEST OF A VTN-TIF-LBF LINE. HOWEVER...THE LIGHT RN/SN
IS CLOSE ENOUGH TO LBF AND VTN TO WARRANT A MENTION IN THE TERMINAL
FORECASTS. HOWEVER...THE UNCERTAINTY IS HIGH AND WE WILL KEEP
CEILING AND VISIBILITY AT OR ABOVE 1000 FEET AND 3SM AT THOSE SITES.

THE FRONT IS EXPECTED TO STALL ACROSS WESTERN NEBRASKA NORTH AND
WEST OF AN ANW-BBW-LXN LINE BY LATE AFTERNOON. AS THE FRONT WORKS
EASTWARD...THE WIND IN WESTERN NEBRASKA WILL BECOME 300-340 AT
12-16G22-26KT ALONG AND WEST OF A VTN-TIF-LBF LINE.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 352 PM CDT THU MAR 26 2015

THE WEEKEND BRINGS MUCH WARMER TEMPERATURES AGAIN WHICH WILL BE
ACCOMPANIED BY VERY DRY RELATIVE HUMIDITIES. THE FORECAST FOR
SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY HAS RELATIVE HUMIDITY DROPPING INTO THE
TEENS OVER PORTIONS OF THE DISTRICTS EACH DAY. THE WINDS MOST DAYS
DON/T CURRENTLY LOOK TO BE TOO STRONG WHICH COULD HELP KEEP FIRE
DANGER AT BAY...AND AT ELEVATED LEVELS RATHER THAN CRITICAL. THAT
BEING SAID...IF ON ANY OF THESE DAYS HIGHER WINDS END UP
OCCURRING...FIRE DANGER COULD BECOME CRITICAL FOR DANGEROUS FIRE
BEHAVIOR.

&&

.LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...POWER
SHORT TERM...BROOKS
LONG TERM...POWER
AVIATION...SPRINGER





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