310
FXUS65 KABQ 131725 AAB
AFDABQ

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Albuquerque NM
1125 AM MDT Mon May 13 2024

...New AVIATION...

.SYNOPSIS...
Issued at 159 AM MDT Mon May 13 2024

Temperatures will trend warmer today with a few more gusty showers
and thunderstorms possible. Even warmer temperatures are expected on
Tuesday with another round of gusty showers and thunderstorms. Most
of this activity will produce little to no rainfall. Another weather
system will move into the region Wednesday with greater coverage
of showers and storms. Even better moisture will arrive Wednesday
night with more widespread coverage of showers and storms possible
Thursday. Temperatures on Thursday will be up to 10 degrees below
normal for eastern NM. A drying trend will begin Friday followed
by much warmer weather over the weekend. The first 90 degrees of
the season is possible in Albuquerque Sunday while Roswell flirts
with 100 degrees.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Today through Tuesday)
Issued at 159 AM MDT Mon May 13 2024

With an upper level low to the east of NM and high pressure building
over AZ, weak large scale lift in the form of atmospheric stretching
or deformation will aid daytime heating in developing isolated
showers and thunderstorms over the northern mountains this afternoon
and early evening. A few relatively short lived showers or
thunderstorms are possible over other mountain ranges in the
forecast area, but deformation is weaker in these areas and less
likely to provide the necessary additional lift to maintain an
airmass cell for long. Dry microbursts are more likely from the few
cells that develop over the higher terrain south of I-40 with gusts
up to 45 kt possible. Shower and storm motion will be to the
southeast around 15 mph. High temperatures will trend 5 to 10
degrees warmer today. Except for the southern half of the east
central plains where temperatures remain very near Sunday`s
readings.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Tuesday night through Sunday)
Issued at 159 AM MDT Mon May 13 2024

The next period of active weather will begin Wednesday as a pair of
upper level waves attempt to phase over the region thru Thursday.
The 00Z GFS, ECMWF, and to some degree the Canadian, have trended
slower with the approach of the southern stream wave approaching
from the northern Baja. This results in drier southwest flow more
squarely centered across southern and western NM thru Wednesday.
Meanwhile, a convectively-aided backdoor front will be poised to
enter northeast NM Wednesday afternoon depending on the upstream
convection triggered by the approaching northern stream wave. The
past several runs of the NBM have also noted this drier trend for
Wednesday. Nonetheless, there are still high chances to likely
PoPs for the Sangre de Cristo Mts and northeast NM late Wednesday
afternoon and Wednesday evening. It is also worth noting there is
some potential for strong to perhaps severe storms across far
southeast NM on Wednesday. This scenario depends on how the moist
and unstable return flow arriving from the Permian Basin interacts
with timing of the drier southwest flow approaching from the west.

By Thursday, deeper moisture is expected to surge as far west as the
Rio Grande Valley from a convectively-aided boundary over eastern
NM. The overall coverage of showers and storms will depend on how
much lift is available with the phasing of the two upper waves.
Cluster analysis has been consistent with the greater QPF focusing
over the northern mts, the I-25 corridor of northeast NM, and the
central highlands. PWs during this period do not look particularly
juicy but some very healthy precip amounts have been advertised
from global models. We shall see how this changes when higher
resolution CAMs get a hold of it. The higher percentiles of the
NBM QPF are quite hefty for the northern mts and eastern NM as
well. A few strong storms are also possible again Thursday across
central and eastern NM given the sufficient shear and instability
over the region. One limiting factor may be max temps up to 10F
below normal in the wake of the backdoor front over eastern NM.

An overall drying and warming trend is still expected Friday in the
wake of the departing upper waves. A couple showers and storms may
still develop over the area but with significantly less coverage
than Friday. The weekend looks much warmer and drier with stronger
west/southwest flow aloft. Temps will be very close to 90 in the
ABQ metro with Roswell potentially hitting 100 by Sunday. Extended
models diverge considerably beyond the weekend with large variance
in the H5 height fields amongst ensemble clusters.

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1125 AM MDT Mon May 13 2024

Lingering moisture combined with daytime heating will result in
the development of isolated showers storms across the northern
mountains. Some virga showers and dry storms cannot be ruled out
across the Gila Mountains and Sacramento Mountains. These drier
variety showers could bring erratic wind gusts of up to 45 kts.
Any activity is expected to quickly die off around sunset thanks
to the loss of daytime heating with clear skies and light winds
across the airspace overnight into Tuesday morning.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 159 AM MDT Mon May 13 2024

High temperatures trend warmer underneath building high pressure
today and Tuesday. Residual atmospheric moisture is forecast to
combine with daytime heating for isolated showers and thunderstorms
over the northern mountains this afternoon. A few showers are
possible elsewhere, but will likely end up producing strong outflow
winds and little in the way of wetting rainfall. Similar weather
conditons are forecast on Tuesday with relatively light wind outside
of an isolated afternoon shower or thunderstorm. Weather changes
remain the forecast on Wednesday as an upper low over southern CA
begins to move eastward. Breezy conditons develop for most areas
Wednesday afternoon as a result of this system along with an
increase in showers and thunderstorms over the northeast quarter.
This low is forecast to move overhead on Thursday and along with a
backdoor front, generate widespread wetting precipitation to much of
the forecast area. This low and associated precipitation shift
rapidly east of NM Friday with a warming and drying trend forecast
for Friday through next weekend.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Farmington......................  79  45  82  48 /   5   0   0   5
Dulce...........................  73  33  78  37 /  30  10  20  10
Cuba............................  72  42  76  44 /  10   5  20  10
Gallup..........................  76  39  78  38 /   5  10  10  10
El Morro........................  72  42  74  42 /  10   5  30  10
Grants..........................  76  40  77  39 /   5   5  20   5
Quemado.........................  73  43  74  43 /   5   5  20   5
Magdalena.......................  74  49  76  50 /  10  10  10   5
Datil...........................  71  46  73  45 /  10  20  20   5
Reserve.........................  79  40  81  40 /   5   5  10   0
Glenwood........................  84  54  86  51 /  10   0   5   0
Chama...........................  66  35  71  37 /  40  20  40  10
Los Alamos......................  69  48  73  49 /  20  10  20  10
Pecos...........................  69  45  75  48 /  20  10  20  10
Cerro/Questa....................  64  37  69  46 /  20  20  30  20
Red River.......................  61  33  67  37 /  30  30  50  20
Angel Fire......................  63  26  68  35 /  30  20  30  10
Taos............................  69  32  76  39 /  20  10  20  10
Mora............................  67  39  73  42 /  30  10  20  10
Espanola........................  77  43  81  47 /  20  10  10  10
Santa Fe........................  72  49  76  50 /  20  10  20  10
Santa Fe Airport................  74  46  79  48 /  10  10  10  10
Albuquerque Foothills...........  79  52  81  55 /   5   5  10  10
Albuquerque Heights.............  80  53  82  53 /   0   5   5   5
Albuquerque Valley..............  82  49  84  51 /   0   5   5   5
Albuquerque West Mesa...........  81  51  83  54 /   5   5   5   5
Belen...........................  82  47  84  49 /   0   5   5   5
Bernalillo......................  80  50  84  53 /   5   5   5   5
Bosque Farms....................  82  46  83  49 /   0   5   5   5
Corrales........................  82  50  84  54 /   5   5   5   5
Los Lunas.......................  82  48  83  50 /   0   5  10   5
Placitas........................  76  49  79  53 /   5   5   5  10
Rio Rancho......................  80  51  84  53 /   5   5   5   5
Socorro.........................  84  52  87  53 /   5   5   5   0
Sandia Park/Cedar Crest.........  70  50  75  50 /   5   5   5  10
Tijeras.........................  74  47  78  47 /   5   5  10  10
Edgewood........................  74  42  79  44 /   5   5   5   5
Moriarty/Estancia...............  75  38  79  40 /   5   5   5   5
Clines Corners..................  70  43  75  45 /  10   5   5   5
Mountainair.....................  74  45  79  46 /   5   5   5  10
Gran Quivira....................  74  46  79  47 /   5   5   0   5
Carrizozo.......................  79  52  83  54 /  10   5   5   0
Ruidoso.........................  71  48  75  50 /  20   5  10   0
Capulin.........................  66  41  74  44 /  10  10  30  10
Raton...........................  72  40  78  43 /  10  20  20  10
Springer........................  72  40  79  43 /  20  10  20  10
Las Vegas.......................  69  42  76  44 /  30  10  10  10
Clayton.........................  73  46  81  50 /   5   5  10  10
Roy.............................  73  44  79  48 /  20  10  10  10
Conchas.........................  78  48  85  50 /  10  10   0  10
Santa Rosa......................  75  46  81  49 /   5  10   0   0
Tucumcari.......................  78  48  86  51 /   5   5   0  10
Clovis..........................  80  51  88  55 /   0   0   0   5
Portales........................  83  49  90  53 /   0   0   0   0
Fort Sumner.....................  81  48  87  51 /   5   5   0   0
Roswell.........................  85  56  93  58 /   5   5   0   0
Picacho.........................  79  49  84  53 /  10   0   0   0
Elk.............................  78  47  84  50 /  10   0   0   0

&&

.ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...33
LONG TERM....42
AVIATION...71