000
FXUS65 KABQ 270559 AAB
AFDABQ

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Albuquerque NM
1159 PM MDT Fri Apr 26 2024

...New AVIATION...

.SYNOPSIS...
Issued at 223 PM MDT Fri Apr 26 2024

Showers and isolated thunderstorms with gusty winds today will
increase in coverage across northern and western NM through
Saturday. Temperatures will be cold enough for snow above 7,500
feet Saturday morning before rising above 8,500 feet Saturday
afternoon. Southwest winds will also trend stronger Saturday with
gusts up to 50 mph possible around Ruidoso and southwest Chaves
County. More showers are expected over northern NM Sunday while
the rest of the area sees breezy west to northwest winds, warmer
temperatures, and lower humidity. Monday through Wednesday will
trend even warmer with breezy west winds and sunny skies each day.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(This evening through Saturday night)
Issued at 223 PM MDT Fri Apr 26 2024

Today`s synoptic pattern features a well defined 552dm H5 closed low
over NE and an open H5 trough over Las Vegas, NV with NM between
these two features. Breezy westerly winds are reaching most areas
and increasing cloud cover ahead of the open trough are infiltrating
the Four Corners region. Numerical model guidance is resolving the
open trough closing to a 551dm H5 low just before it reaches the
Four Corners area, with showers of rain and high elevation snow
spreading over the northwestern quadrant of NM. Snow levels will
initially start near 8,000` before falling to 7,000` overnight into
Saturday morning. A brief period of gusty winds and rain and high
elevation snow will produce some short-lived hazardous travel
conditions. The Pacific portion of the cold front advances to the
Rio Grande Valley late Saturday morning to near noon. Areas from
Socorro to ABQ to Santa Fe can expect a bout of gusty winds with
chances for light rain and high elevation snow generally sticking
along and north of I-40. Meanwhile, areas along and east of the
central mountain chain will see southwesterly winds pick up again by
late morning with gusts of 30 to 45 mph common. Stronger peak gusts
reaching 50 to 55 mph will focus over the south-central mountains
and portions of Chaves County where a Wind Advisory will be hoisted
with this forecast package for Saturday afternoon and early evening.
Could see southwest winds over performing the current forecast given
a deep 994mb MLSP surface low along the CO/KS border and strong
southwesterly flow aloft. However, saw potential mid-level cloud
cover inhibiting mixing a tad. The Pacific portion of the cold front
continues to the TX border by sunset Saturday with little to no
precipitation potential through eastern NM. Winds begin to retreat
from their peaks Saturday night, while the backdoor portion of the
cold front skirts far northeastern NM.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Sunday through Thursday)
Issued at 223 PM MDT Fri Apr 26 2024

The focus on Sunday shifts to a final trailing shortwave trough
shifting southeast across northern NM. Sufficient moisture and lift
beneath the wave along with daytime heating will allow showers and
isolated storms to fire up along the CO border. Elsewhere, dry and
breezy northwest flow will take hold with slightly warmer temps and
partly cloudy skies. Min temps Sunday night will be chilly again but
still above freezing in the lower elevations, except areas like Taos
and Moriarty.

Monday thru Wednesday will feature quasi-zonal flow with very dry
westerly winds and warming temperatures. Highs Tuesday and Wednesday
will warm into the 80s across the lower/middle RGV with 80s and
90s over eastern NM (10F above normal for late April/early May).
Overnight lows will also trend warmer with any sub-freezing temps
relegated to higher mountain valleys by Wednesday and Thursday
mornings.

A potential pattern change is still on the horizon by Thursday with
deeper moisture, cooler high temps, and more cloud cover behind a
strong backdoor front entering eastern NM. This cold front will
attempt to slosh west into the RGV Thursday night with gap winds
Friday morning and an uptick in storm coverage possible thru the
weekend.

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 1144 PM MDT Fri Apr 26 2024

Showers and a few thunderstorms persist across northern and
western NM late this evening. This precipitation will continue to
expand and shift eastward overnight into Saturday morning. Showers
will persist on and off through Saturday across most areas along
and west of the Central Mountain Chain. MVFR cigs are likely at
KFMN and KGUP. Mt obscurations are also likely. Showers and any
thunderstorms may result in strong and erratic wind gusts to 45kt
Saturday, especially any showers or storms along a Pacific cold
front pushing from west to east Saturday afternoon. Additionally,
southwest winds will increase late Saturday morning, especially
across eastern NM. Gusts between 35 and 40 kts will be common.
These winds may create areas of blowing dust Saturday afternoon,
especially around KROW. Winds will generally taper off around
sunset, though breeziness will persist Saturday night along and
just east of the Central Mt Chain.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 223 PM MDT Fri Apr 26 2024

...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS EXPECTED FOR THE MIDDLE RIO
GRANDE VALLEY AND EASTERN NM TODAY AS WELL AS THE EAST CENTRAL
PLAINS ON SATURDAY...

Red Flag Warning continues for the Middle Rio Grande Valley eastward
and along and east of I-25 due to dry, warm, and unstable
conditions. Current observations show gusty southwest winds most
areas. These winds will subside some, below critical fire weather
thresholds this evening, not entirely dying out however. An
approaching storm system currently over Las Vegas, NV will bring
cooler, gusty weather with embedded rain and high elevation snow to
the northwestern half of the forecast area. Southwest winds will
again strengthen ahead of this system through eastern NM, with
enough time for humidity to once again fall to the low teens near
the TX border. The Fire Weather Watch for the east-central plains
Saturday afternoon was left as is, but could be expanded to the
northeastern plains as this area is forecast to see at least
elevated to short-lived critical conditions as well.

Cooler temperatures fill in behind a cold front through the day
Saturday, reaching the TX border Saturday evening. Temperatures
rebound Sunday through Tuesday. Dry and breezy westerly winds will
be the rule each of these days. These winds increase in strength
Wednesday with cooler and wetter conditions favored to invade the
eastern plains Thursday.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Farmington......................  40  56  38  65 /  80  70   5   5
Dulce...........................  30  51  31  60 /  80  80  20  40
Cuba............................  33  50  33  59 /  70  90  30  20
Gallup..........................  31  51  30  62 /  60  70  10   5
El Morro........................  31  46  32  57 /  50  60  20   5
Grants..........................  30  53  32  63 /  40  50  10   5
Quemado.........................  33  52  34  60 /  30  40  10   0
Magdalena.......................  37  56  38  64 /   5  30  10   0
Datil...........................  33  51  35  60 /  10  30   5   0
Reserve.........................  32  56  29  67 /  20  30   0   0
Glenwood........................  43  60  40  72 /  20  30   0   0
Chama...........................  28  45  30  53 /  80  90  30  60
Los Alamos......................  38  51  37  60 /  60  70  20  20
Pecos...........................  35  54  35  61 /  30  40  10  20
Cerro/Questa....................  38  47  37  54 /  50  60  30  40
Red River.......................  28  44  28  51 /  50  70  40  70
Angel Fire......................  25  46  26  52 /  40  60  30  50
Taos............................  31  53  31  59 /  50  50  20  30
Mora............................  32  54  34  60 /  20  30  20  30
Espanola........................  40  58  39  66 /  50  50  20  20
Santa Fe........................  38  54  37  61 /  40  50  20  20
Santa Fe Airport................  38  57  36  65 /  40  40  10  10
Albuquerque Foothills...........  43  60  43  67 /  20  40  10   5
Albuquerque Heights.............  43  62  41  69 /  20  30   5   0
Albuquerque Valley..............  43  64  40  72 /  10  30   5   0
Albuquerque West Mesa...........  44  62  42  70 /  20  30   5   0
Belen...........................  41  64  40  73 /  10  20  10   0
Bernalillo......................  43  62  42  70 /  20  50   5   5
Bosque Farms....................  41  63  40  72 /  10  30   5   0
Corrales........................  43  62  43  71 /  20  40   5   0
Los Lunas.......................  42  63  41  72 /  10  30   5   0
Placitas........................  42  58  41  66 /  30  50  10   5
Rio Rancho......................  43  61  42  70 /  20  40   5   0
Socorro.........................  44  67  44  75 /   5  20   5   0
Sandia Park/Cedar Crest.........  38  53  38  61 /  30  50  10   5
Tijeras.........................  39  56  38  64 /  30  50  10   5
Edgewood........................  36  58  36  65 /  20  40  10   5
Moriarty/Estancia...............  34  59  34  66 /  20  20   5   0
Clines Corners..................  34  55  34  62 /  10  20   5   5
Mountainair.....................  36  57  36  64 /  10  20  10   0
Gran Quivira....................  37  58  35  65 /   5  20  10   0
Carrizozo.......................  46  63  41  69 /   0  10   5   0
Ruidoso.........................  41  55  38  62 /   0  10   0   0
Capulin.........................  36  58  32  60 /   0  30  10  40
Raton...........................  36  61  32  64 /  10  30  20  40
Springer........................  37  63  35  67 /   0  20   5  20
Las Vegas.......................  37  58  35  64 /   5  10   5  10
Clayton.........................  45  70  40  67 /   0  10   5  10
Roy.............................  41  64  37  67 /   0  10   0  20
Conchas.........................  47  73  43  76 /   0   5   0  10
Santa Rosa......................  42  68  42  73 /   0   0   0   0
Tucumcari.......................  48  75  43  76 /   0   0   0   5
Clovis..........................  49  73  45  76 /   0   0   0   0
Portales........................  50  75  45  78 /   0   0   0   0
Fort Sumner.....................  46  73  44  77 /   0   0   0   0
Roswell.........................  51  78  47  81 /   0   0   0   0
Picacho.........................  46  68  43  73 /   0   0   0   0
Elk.............................  44  64  39  71 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Fire Weather Watch from Saturday afternoon through Saturday
evening for NMZ126.

Wind Advisory from noon to 8 PM MDT Saturday for NMZ226-240.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...24
LONG TERM....42
AVIATION...34