000
FXUS65 KABQ 280547 AAB
AFDABQ

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Albuquerque NM
1147 PM MDT Sat Apr 27 2024

...New AVIATION...

.SYNOPSIS...
Issued at 226 PM MDT Sat Apr 27 2024

Scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms will continue this
evening along and west of the central mountain chain, then linger
over northern areas especially near the Colorado border on Sunday.
An inch or so of additional snow accumulation is expected in the
northern mountains above 9000 feet with locally up to 3 inches on
the highest peaks. A warming trend will commence Sunday through
mid week with high temperatures mostly in the 70s and 80s at lower
elevations starting Monday, and highs peaking a few to around 12
degrees above 1991 to 2020 averages on Wednesday. Some models
depict a disturbance clipping northeast New Mexico late Thursday
through Friday with cooling temperatures areawide and a chance
for showers, thunderstorms, and some very high terrain snow over
the northern mountains and eastern plains.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(This evening through Sunday night)
Issued at 226 PM MDT Sat Apr 27 2024

An upper low will continue to trek from the Four Corners region to
eastern Colorado tonight. Temperatures aloft have cooled
considerably (500 mb readings dropped to to -20 C over a large
portion of the CWA), and this has destabilized the lower half of the
troposphere with lifted indices having reduced to -3 to -4 C. This
will keep convective showers going with isolated thunderstorms
through sunset, and the Pacific cold front should overtake most
western and central areas of NM by dusk this evening. More stable
nocturnal conditions will yield less coverage of precipitation, with
only isolated to scattered showers, mainly over the northern
mountains, being driven by the weak, but larger scale ascent with
the low and weak orographics. Some patchy fog cannot be ruled out
for tonight near northern sheltered areas that received any soil
soaking rainfall from this afternoon.

Into Sunday, a subsequent shortwave trough will drop on the back
side of the departing low. This feature will help kick off more
showers and perhaps a stray thunderstorm or two over northern NM
Sunday afternoon. An isolated footprint near the NM-CO border might
exceed a tenth of an inch or so, but otherwise fairly meager amounts
less than a tenth will be more common. Diurnal instability will wane
into Sunday evening, and so will shower/storm activity. Breezy
conditions will also be common Sunday with a new lee-side surface
low developing. Daytime temperatures on Sunday will be rising, but
still a few degrees shy of normalcy in most zones.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Monday through Friday)
Issued at 226 PM MDT Sat Apr 27 2024

Fair weather with warming temperatures and some gusty afternoon
winds Monday and Tuesday under zonal flow aloft. The warming trend
will continue into Wednesday as the flow turns southwesterly and
becomes breezy ahead of a low pressure system tracking
southeastward across the northern and central Rockies. Some models
suggest the upper low will clip northeast NM with a chance for
showers, thunderstorms, and mainly mountain snow showers over the
northern mountains and east late Thursday through Friday. After
high temperatures around 2-12 degrees above 1991-2020 averages on
Wednesday, readings will trend a few to 10 degrees cooler with
continued breezy conditions on Thursday.  A gusty backdoor cold
front Thursday night should drive a few to 8 degrees of further
cooling central and east on Friday. Modest east canyon wind gusts
up to 30 mph will be possible in the central valleys from Santa Fe
to Albuquerque and around Carrizozo Thursday night and early
Friday morning. High temperatures on Friday look to bottom out
near to around 4 degrees below 30-year averages along and east of
the central mountain chain Friday, while western readings remain a
few to around 6 degrees above the averages.

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 1137 PM MDT Sat Apr 27 2024

Much of the shower and thunderstorm activity has ended for the
night as the storm system pulls away from NM. MVFR to IFR cigs
remain possible through the overnight hours and into Sunday
morning across the northern mountains (with some mt obscurations
possible), far northeast NM near the CO border, as well as across
west central NM, which may potentially impact KGUP. Another round
of showers and thunderstorms are expected across north central and
northeast NM Sunday afternoon. These storms will diminish Sunday
evening shortly after sunset. Elsewhere, breezy west to northwest
winds will return Sunday afternoon with gusts near 25 or 30kt
likely.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 226 PM MDT Sat Apr 27 2024

...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS CONTINUE FOR THE NORTHEAST AND
EAST CENTRAL PLAINS THROUGH EARLY EVENING...

Ongoing showers and thunderstorms may offer some hit-and-miss
footprints of soaking rainfall over portions of western to north
central NM through the evening, but remaining areas will be left
out. The eastern plains will remain dry late this afternoon, and the
combination of stronger winds there will keep the critical threat
going through sunset. Shower and thunderstorm coverage will dwindle
overnight, but is expected to redevelop on a less widespread basis
Sunday, mainly over north central and very far northeastern NM where
there will be fewer recipients of soaking rainfall. From Sunday
through Wednesday, a warming and drying (lower humidity) trend will
get underway with the biggest changes likely being noted between
Sunday and Monday. Fortunately, winds will remain manageable,
generally in the breezy 15 to 25 mph range, a welcome occurrence for
late April. A passing disturbance and associated front in CO could
lead to cooler temperatures into Thursday and Friday, but
unfortunately humidity does not appear to get much of a boost, nor
does there appear to be much precipitation relief. Winds may
increase slightly during this Thursday-Friday time frame, but a
stronger intensification or more southward track (somewhat similar
to what the European model is showing) could bring at least
marginally critical wind speeds to the forecast area.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Farmington......................  37  65  36  72 /  20  10   0   0
Dulce...........................  31  61  27  68 /  40  40  10   0
Cuba............................  33  60  33  67 /  50  20   5   0
Gallup..........................  29  64  29  70 /  60  10   0   0
El Morro........................  30  59  30  67 /  60  10   0   0
Grants..........................  31  64  30  72 /  40  10   0   0
Quemado.........................  33  62  32  70 /  70   5   0   0
Magdalena.......................  38  66  40  72 /  30   5   5   0
Datil...........................  34  62  34  69 /  40   5   0   0
Reserve.........................  30  67  31  76 /  20  10   0   0
Glenwood........................  38  71  42  80 /   5   5   0   0
Chama...........................  28  54  26  62 /  50  60  20   0
Los Alamos......................  37  61  38  67 /  60  30   5   0
Pecos...........................  34  62  35  68 /  40  20  10   0
Cerro/Questa....................  33  56  33  62 /  40  60  30   0
Red River.......................  26  51  26  59 /  40  70  40   0
Angel Fire......................  21  54  24  60 /  30  50  30   0
Taos............................  30  61  28  68 /  30  40  20   0
Mora............................  32  61  32  67 /  30  30  20   0
Espanola........................  38  67  37  75 /  50  30   5   0
Santa Fe........................  35  63  37  69 /  50  30   5   0
Santa Fe Airport................  34  67  35  72 /  50  20   5   0
Albuquerque Foothills...........  41  68  45  75 /  50   5   5   0
Albuquerque Heights.............  42  70  44  77 /  50   5   0   0
Albuquerque Valley..............  35  72  36  80 /  50   5   0   0
Albuquerque West Mesa...........  39  70  43  77 /  40   5   0   0
Belen...........................  39  74  38  80 /  50   5   0   0
Bernalillo......................  40  71  41  78 /  50   5   0   0
Bosque Farms....................  36  73  35  79 /  50   5   0   0
Corrales........................  39  70  41  79 /  40   5   0   0
Los Lunas.......................  37  73  37  79 /  50   5   0   0
Placitas........................  39  68  42  73 /  50   5   0   0
Rio Rancho......................  41  69  43  77 /  40   5   0   0
Socorro.........................  44  75  45  82 /  30   5   0   0
Sandia Park/Cedar Crest.........  36  62  40  67 /  50   5   5   0
Tijeras.........................  37  65  40  70 /  50   5   5   0
Edgewood........................  35  65  37  71 /  40   5   5   0
Moriarty/Estancia...............  33  67  33  72 /  40   5   0   0
Clines Corners..................  33  63  36  68 /  30   5   5   0
Mountainair.....................  35  66  38  71 /  50   5   5   0
Gran Quivira....................  36  66  39  70 /  40   5   5   0
Carrizozo.......................  42  69  45  75 /  10   0   0   0
Ruidoso.........................  35  63  38  69 /  10   0   0   0
Capulin.........................  33  59  32  68 /  20  60  40   0
Raton...........................  33  63  33  72 /  30  60  40   0
Springer........................  33  67  34  73 /  20  50  30   0
Las Vegas.......................  33  65  34  71 /  10  30  10   0
Clayton.........................  39  66  41  75 /  20  30  20   0
Roy.............................  35  66  39  73 /  10  30  30   0
Conchas.........................  40  75  41  80 /   5  20  20   0
Santa Rosa......................  41  74  41  77 /   5   5   5   0
Tucumcari.......................  40  75  42  80 /   5   5  10   0
Clovis..........................  42  75  46  81 /   5   0  10   0
Portales........................  43  76  45  82 /   5   0   5   0
Fort Sumner.....................  43  77  44  81 /   0   0   5   0
Roswell.........................  48  82  50  87 /   0   0   0   0
Picacho.........................  43  74  46  80 /   0   0   0   0
Elk.............................  40  71  43  79 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...52
LONG TERM....44
AVIATION...34