Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Albuquerque, NM
Issued by NWS Albuquerque, NM
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818 FXUS65 KABQ 122357 AAA AFDABQ Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED National Weather Service Albuquerque NM 557 PM MDT Sun May 12 2024 ...New AVIATION... .SYNOPSIS... Issued at 214 PM MDT Sun May 12 2024 Isolated showers and storms will continue across northeastern New Mexico this afternoon before tapering off overnight. Similar conditions are expected through Tuesday, favoring the high terrain. Coverage of showers and storms will increase Wednesday amongst a slight cooldown. Much cooler temperatures are expected areawide on Thursday, bringing all locales below seasonal averages. Drier and breezier conditions will close out the week. && .SHORT TERM... (This evening through Monday night) Issued at 214 PM MDT Sun May 12 2024 The upper low is currently moving from southeast CO into western KS per the latest water vapor imagery, with wrap-around moisture over north central and northeast NM combining with instability to produce a round of scattered showers and isolated storms. However, today`s round is missing the shear that was in place yesterday with the front completely backed-out of the area and gusty westerly winds prevailing, so storms will remain garden-variety. Convection is forecast to follow a normal diurnal downtrend this evening with the loss of daytime heating. A short-lived warming/drying trend will kick off Monday as an upper level ridge moves east into the region in the wake of the departing upper low. Daytime temperatures will be several degrees warmer than today`s and generally within a few degrees of normal. Lingering moisture will be sufficient for late day build-ups over the mountains given daytime heating Monday afternoon, but rain amounts will be on the low side. && .LONG TERM... (Tuesday through Saturday) Issued at 214 PM MDT Sun May 12 2024 A shortwave ridge will lead to a reduction in showers and thunderstorms on Tuesday, though isolated activity is possible over the northern high terrain. A weak disturbance moving into the Desert Southwest on Wednesday will lend to increased coverage of showers and storms, namely over western and northern NM. Slightly cooler temperatures are also expected for most locales. A convectively-aided backdoor front will surge southward and westward Wednesday night. This fropa will deliver a reinforcing shot of cold air, which will translate to markedly cooler temperatures on Thursday. Coverage of precipitation will increase thanks to the enhanced lift by the moist upslope flow. As the upper level disturbance departs, a return to drier conditions will take hold on Friday. A slight uptick in winds is expected Friday and Saturday afternoon but only locally breezy conditions are expected. Temperatures will rebound 5F to 12F on Friday compared to Thursday`s readings, warming a few degrees more on Saturday. && .AVIATION... (00Z TAFS) Issued at 544 PM MDT Sun May 12 2024 Scattered to isolated showers and thunderstorms are forecast to linger into the evening mainly along and east of the northern mountains. However, gusty virga showers are forecast as far south as the I-40 corridor east of the continental divide through early evening. Dry microbursts are expected from the virga showers, and a mix of wetter and drier variety microbursts are expected from the wetter precipitation farther north, through early evening with localized and erratic wind gusts up to 40 KT. Movement of these echoes should be toward the southeast around 15-25 KT. Monday afternoon will feature scattered to isolated showers and thunderstorms over the northern mountains with a few rogue cells possible further south over the west central and south central mountains. Drier variety microbursts will again be capable of localized and erratic wind gusts up to 40 KT. && .FIRE WEATHER... Issued at 214 PM MDT Sun May 12 2024 Critical fire weather conditions are not forecast through the next seven days, although hot, dry and unstable conditions will spread from west to east across much of the area Mon/Tue/Wed. The combination of a northern stream trough and associated backdoor cold front, with an approaching Pacific low, will bring improved chances for wetting storms Wed/Thu and favor areas along/east of the central mountain chain. A renewed warming/drying trend is forecast from Friday through next weekend, with any showers/storms remaining on the drier side. Hot, dry and unstable conditions will return next weekend. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Farmington...................... 40 79 44 82 / 0 10 0 5 Dulce........................... 32 73 35 77 / 20 30 5 20 Cuba............................ 36 73 40 75 / 10 10 5 20 Gallup.......................... 33 77 37 78 / 0 5 5 20 El Morro........................ 35 73 40 73 / 0 10 10 20 Grants.......................... 32 76 38 76 / 0 5 5 20 Quemado......................... 37 75 41 74 / 0 10 10 20 Magdalena....................... 45 74 49 76 / 5 10 10 20 Datil........................... 40 72 43 73 / 0 10 10 20 Reserve......................... 34 79 37 81 / 0 10 5 10 Glenwood........................ 48 83 51 85 / 10 10 0 5 Chama........................... 31 65 34 70 / 30 40 10 30 Los Alamos...................... 43 70 47 72 / 20 20 5 30 Pecos........................... 38 70 42 75 / 20 20 5 20 Cerro/Questa.................... 34 65 40 70 / 20 20 10 30 Red River....................... 29 59 33 66 / 20 30 20 40 Angel Fire...................... 27 61 29 68 / 20 20 10 40 Taos............................ 31 70 35 75 / 10 20 5 20 Mora............................ 35 67 37 71 / 20 20 5 30 Espanola........................ 40 76 45 79 / 10 10 5 20 Santa Fe........................ 42 72 47 75 / 20 10 5 20 Santa Fe Airport................ 40 75 45 78 / 30 10 5 10 Albuquerque Foothills........... 50 78 54 81 / 10 5 5 10 Albuquerque Heights............. 47 79 52 83 / 10 5 0 10 Albuquerque Valley.............. 46 81 51 85 / 10 5 0 5 Albuquerque West Mesa........... 48 79 52 83 / 10 5 0 10 Belen........................... 44 82 48 85 / 5 5 0 10 Bernalillo...................... 46 80 50 83 / 20 5 0 10 Bosque Farms.................... 43 81 48 85 / 10 5 0 10 Corrales........................ 46 80 50 84 / 10 5 0 10 Los Lunas....................... 43 82 48 85 / 10 5 0 10 Placitas........................ 47 76 51 80 / 20 5 5 10 Rio Rancho...................... 47 79 51 83 / 10 5 0 10 Socorro......................... 50 84 53 87 / 5 5 5 10 Sandia Park/Cedar Crest......... 44 71 47 75 / 20 5 5 10 Tijeras......................... 44 74 48 78 / 20 5 5 10 Edgewood........................ 40 74 44 77 / 20 5 0 10 Moriarty/Estancia............... 36 76 39 79 / 20 5 0 10 Clines Corners.................. 38 71 42 75 / 20 10 0 10 Mountainair..................... 41 74 46 78 / 5 5 5 10 Gran Quivira.................... 40 75 45 78 / 5 5 5 5 Carrizozo....................... 48 78 53 82 / 5 5 5 5 Ruidoso......................... 44 69 48 75 / 0 20 5 10 Capulin......................... 39 67 41 74 / 20 10 0 30 Raton........................... 38 72 40 78 / 20 10 5 30 Springer........................ 38 74 40 78 / 20 10 0 20 Las Vegas....................... 37 69 40 76 / 20 20 5 20 Clayton......................... 47 74 48 81 / 30 10 0 10 Roy............................. 43 73 46 78 / 30 10 0 10 Conchas......................... 47 79 49 85 / 20 10 5 5 Santa Rosa...................... 45 76 47 82 / 10 5 0 5 Tucumcari....................... 46 80 48 87 / 10 5 0 0 Clovis.......................... 49 80 51 88 / 5 0 0 0 Portales........................ 48 81 50 89 / 0 0 0 0 Fort Sumner..................... 47 81 50 87 / 5 0 0 5 Roswell......................... 54 86 56 93 / 0 0 0 0 Picacho......................... 48 78 50 83 / 0 10 0 10 Elk............................. 46 76 48 82 / 0 10 0 10 && .ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ SHORT TERM...11 LONG TERM....12 AVIATION...44