Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Huntsville, AL

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FXUS64 KHUN 142334
AFDHUN

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Huntsville AL
634 PM CDT Thu Mar 14 2024

...New AVIATION...

.NEAR TERM...
(Tonight through Friday Morning)
Issued at 250 PM CDT Thu Mar 14 2024

Upper level ridging becomes more zonal through Friday as an upper
shortwave trough traverses the Midwest. Models indicate a few upper
shortwaves will move along the flow over the Tennessee Valley late
tonight through Friday. At the surface, a cold front will gradually
make its way over the region through the day on Friday as well. As
for our area, chances for showers and storms will ramp up this
evening as the aforementioned surface front approaches. Low to medium
chances for showers and storms are forecast mainly along and west of
I-65 through this evening, with high chances area-wide late tonight
through mid-morning Friday.

CAMs earlier today were fairly optimistic about the potential for
strong to severe storms tonight into Friday morning. SBCAPE values
were shown to range between 200-600 J/kg (higher over NW AL), with
some showing upwards of 700 J/kg. Bulk shear values exceed 30 knots,
and even increase to between 40-50 knots by Friday morning.
Furthermore, 0-3 km SRH values generally range between 100-250 m2/s2.
Much of these ingredients look most favorable west of I-65 as well.
However, the latest run of the HRRR isn`t quite as optimistic that
we`ll see much in the way of severe weather. Regardless, this will be
monitored through this evening and overnight. The main question will
be whether the CIN present (capping inversion) is strong enough to
inhibit severe storm development. Overall, the Storm Prediction
Center has our entire area outlooked in a Marginal Risk of severe
storms tonight and into tomorrow. The main threats will be damaging
winds and possibly a tornado. Frequent lightning and small hail are
possible as well. Make sure to have multiple ways to receive warning
information (especially ones that will wake you up!).

As for timing, Hi-Res model guidance has come into better agreement
today with regards to timing of the main line of showers and storms
tonight. Guidance shows these moving into northwest Alabama between
2-3AM and progressing from northwest to southeast, with the severe
threat largely coming to an end around 10AM. Lingering showers/storms
are then possible into the afternoon.

Additionally, showers and storms will likely be efficient rainfall
producers. PWATs over northwest Alabama are shown to increase to
between 1.5-1.7 inches late tonight into early Friday, which is well
above the 90th percentile of Sounding Climatology for BMX. Forecast
storm total rainfall ranges between 1.5-3.0 inches along and west of
I-65 and between 1.0-1.5 east of I-65. Since we haven`t seen a lot of
rain in the days leading up to this event, widespread flash flooding
is not anticipated and there are no Flood Watches in effect.
However, at least minor flooding will be possible, especially west of
I-65. The Weather Prediction Center has outlooked most of our local
area in a Slight Risk of excessive rainfall. Turn around, don`t drown
if you encounter a flooded road while driving!

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Friday Afternoon through Saturday Night)
Issued at 250 PM CDT Thu Mar 14 2024

After the severe and flooding threats come to an end between mid to
late Friday morning, medium chances (40-60%) of lingering showers and
embedded thunderstorms (non-severe) will be possible through the
remainder of the afternoon. Dry weather will then return to the
Tennessee Valley by Friday night and will persist through Saturday
night. With the passage of the aforementioned storm system, cooler
temperatures are expected. Highs Saturday will top out in the upper
60s to around 70 degrees, with lows decreasing to be in the mid to
upper 40s Saturday night. Much colder weather is on the way for early
next week, which is discussed below.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Sunday through Wednesday)
Issued at 318 AM CDT Thu Mar 14 2024

[250PM UPDATE] - Not too much has changed with regards to the long
term period. After low chances of rain (10-20%) generally along and
south of the Tennessee River Sunday morning, no rain is anticipated
through at least midweek. A reinforcing surface cold front will
traverse the region on Sunday as well, bringing much cooler
temperatures and breezy conditions to the area for early next week.
Temperatures Monday night may dip into the mid to upper 20s, with
wind chills in the lower 20s early Tuesday morning! Stay tuned!

Lingering impacts will be felt on Sunday from the cold front passage
on Friday. The front will be well south of us, however a shortwave
propagating NE along the boundary will support low rain chances
(10-25%) Sunday evening with dry conditions developing overnight.
Further, a secondary dry cold front is also forecast to pass through
our area Sunday during the day, this will have a significant impact
on temperatures through the duration of the long term.

Post frontal clouds should clear overnight Sunday with mostly clear
conditions continuing through the long term period. Fortunately these
sunny conditions will be met with much cooler post frontal
temperatures. The passage of the cold front on Sunday will once again
usher in much colder and drier continental air. Monday afternoon
highs will top out in the mid 50s with overnight lows plunging into
the upper 20s and lower 30s. While overnight conditions look to be
clear, winds are currently forecast to remain elevated from the NW,
this could limit our frost potential. Conversely, this will create
morning wind chills Tuesday morning a few degrees cooler in the low
to mid 20s. Fortunately we will warm up quickly through the week with
each day and night warmer than the last with highs will be back in
the 60s by Wednesday.

&&

.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 635 PM CDT Thu Mar 14 2024

VFR conditions will continue at both KMSL and KHSV for now,
however, high chances of thunderstorms will cause decreased
ceilings and visibilities overnight into Friday morning. In
response to this, periods of IFR to MVFR conditions are in the
official TAF package with PROB30 groups allowing conditions to
fall into VLIFR to LIFR.

&&

.HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...None.
TN...None.
&&

$$

NEAR TERM...26
SHORT TERM....26
LONG TERM....26
AVIATION...HC


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