Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Amarillo, TX

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FXUS64 KAMA 090456

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Amarillo TX
1056 PM CST Thu Dec 8 2016

06Z TAFs - Mainly MVFR ceilings are expected overnight across the
Panhandles. Confidence is low, but KDHT could see some flurries or
light freezing drizzle early Friday morning for a few hours. Ceilings
will gradually rise to low VFR by Friday afternoon and winds will
increase to 15 to 20kts with gusts near 30kts. Winds will be light
and variable after sunset.



.PREV DISCUSSION... /Issued 151 PM CST Thu Dec 8 2016/

A short wave trough over northern and northeastern New Mexico will
impact the western Panhandles tonight. Some very light snow or light
freezing drizzle possible across the western portions of the
forecast area between 06Z and 18Z Friday...however confidence too
low to mention at this time. Otherwise...low clouds will affect much
of the western and central Panhandles tonight. Another cold night in
store for the forecast area then a gradual moderating trend Friday
into the weekend. No precipitation is expected Friday through
Saturday night.


Slight height falls are expected across the Panhandles on Sunday as a
shortwave trough moves out of the northern Rockies into the High
Plains. A surface cold front is expected to slowly enter the
Panhandles by midday. By the evening hours the front should be
through the Oklahoma Panhandle but still moving through the northern
Texas Panhandle. This will give us a wide spread of high
temperatures with highs in the 40s across the NE with mid 60s across
the SW. The front is then expected to blow through the remainder of
the Texas Panhandle overnight and keep our lows at or below

We will quickly moderate on Monday as winds turn back to the south
and 850mb temperatures rise back into the 13C to 15C range area
wide. This will result in highs in the 50s with the southwestern
Texas Panhandle having a chance to break 60.

Medium range models diverge for the Tuesday and Wednesday period of
the extended forecast. The GFS is the most aggressive with bringing
another arctic surge into the Panhandles Tuesday which would result
in a return to cold conditions similar to Today. The ECMWF/CMC are
less progressive with this cold air and keeps the front north of the
area until Wednesday morning. Have split the difference with the
outputs and I would expect adjustments are time goes forward. One
thing models do agree is that this cold surge will come through dry.


.AMA Watches/Warnings/Advisories...



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