Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Amarillo, TX

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000
FXUS64 KAMA 182331 AAA
AFDAMA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AMARILLO TX
631 PM CDT FRI APR 18 2014

.AVIATION...
FOR THE 00Z TAFS...VFR CONDITIONS AND SOUTHERLY WINDS EXPECTED
THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. GUSTY WINDS WILL EASE A LITTLE AFTER
SUNSET...THOUGH WIND SPEEDS WILL REMAIN BETWEEN 15 AND 20 KTS
OVERNIGHT FOR ALL SITES. GUSTS TO AROUND 30 KTS WILL DEVELOP ONCE
AGAIN TOMORROW. CONFIDENCE IS TOO LOW AT THIS TIME TO MENTION RAIN OR
THUNDERSTORMS AT ANY SITE...BUT THERE IS A CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS TO IMPACT TAF SITES SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

NF

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 321 PM CDT FRI APR 18 2014/

DISCUSSION...
UPPER LEVEL LOW IS NOW JUST MOVING ON SHORE IN SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA.
THIS FEATURE LOOKS FAIRLY IMPRESSIVE ON THE SATELLITE AND IS PUMPING
A LOT OF SUBTROPICAL HIGH LEVEL MOISTURE OVER THE SOUTHWEST U.S. IT
WILL BE INTERESTING TO SEE ONCE THIS SYSTEM GETS INTO THE UPPER AIR
GRID ON WHAT THAT DATA WILL DO TO THE MODELS. THE MODELS SEEM A
LITTLE DRY OVER OUR AREA...ESPECIALLY SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT
GIVEN THE VIGOROUS SYSTEM. AT ANY RATE...THE UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL
SLOWLY MAKE ITS WAY THROUGH THE SOUTHWEST U.S. AND THEN IT WILL OPEN
UP AS IT MOVES ACROSS NEW MEXICO AND THE PANHANDLES ON SUNDAY. A
COUPLE OF MINOR SHORT WAVE TROUGHS MAY MOVE OUT AHEAD OF THE LARGER
UPPER TROUGH WHICH COULD HELP TO SET OFF SOME SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT. ANOTHER CHANCE OF SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL RETURN TO THE AREA AS THE MAIN TROUGH MOVES
ACROSS THE PANHANDLES. A SURFACE TROUGH AND COLD FRONT WILL MOVE
ACROSS THE PANHANDLES ON SUNDAY WHICH WILL ALSO PROVIDE A FOCUS FOR
PRECIPITATION DEVELOPMENT.

THE WEATHER LOOKS DRY BEYOND SUNDAY NIGHT AS ANY NEW SYSTEMS MISS US
TO THE NORTH. WARMER THAN NORMAL TEMPERATURES LOOK TO BE IN STORE
ALONG WITH INCREASING WINDS.

FIRE WEATHER...
ELEVATED OR CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE NOT EXPECTED THROUGH
THE EASTER WEEKEND GIVEN THE CHANCES OF RAIN. WINDS WILL INCREASE
AND THE RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES WILL DECREASE BY THE MIDDLE PART OF
NEXT WEEK WHICH COULD BRING CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS TO
PARTS OF THE PANHANDLES.

&&

.AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
OK...NONE.

&&

$$

06/11




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