Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Amarillo, TX
FXUS64 KAMA 312353 AAA
Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Amarillo TX
653 PM CDT TUE MAY 31 2016
For the 00Z TAFS, another round of showers and tstms currently
forming over ern plains of New Mexico will move slowly ewd into the
OK and TX Panhandles this evening and tonight. Have continued mention
of thunderstorms at all terminal sites from about 04Z to 08Z with
light rain showers for a few to several hours after. MVFR cigs likely
at all TAF sites later this evening into Wednesday. Some potential
exists for IFR cigs but have decided to leave out of this fcst cycle
due to low confidence in when and where this might occur.
.Prev Discussion... /Issued 342 PM CDT TUE MAY 31 2016/
Easterly upslope flow expected to continue tonight and Wednesday.
While this will keep moisture supplied, weak flow from the surface to
500 mb is not situated to generate significant shear, warm air
advection, or strong storm base inflow.
Thus, we expect clouds, showers and thunderstorms tonight and
Wednesday, but aforementioned factors have eased concerns for
organized severe thunderstorms. Slow movement of thunderstorms will
cause some storms to be heavy rain producers. Lack of consensus
between short-term high-resolution models leads us to not make many
changes to going forecast, apart from tweaking pops in the direction
of new blended guidance, and adjusting border pops toward agreement
Pops still erode from north and northwest Wednesday night through
Thursday, as mid-level closed low moves downstate, with dry weather
forecast for most periods following. Have accepted blended pops`
idea of slight chance thunderstorms in western sections Monday night,
by which time next system may tap newly-arrived low-level moisture.