Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Amarillo, TX

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FXUS64 KAMA 210026 AAA
AFDAMA

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Amarillo TX
626 PM CST Tue Feb 20 2018

.AVIATION...
For the 00Z TAFs, the sfc cold front is well south of the
forecast area. Expect redevelopment of low clouds, mainly in the
MVFR category, late tonight and persist through the end of this
fcst period. There could be some light wintry precipitation on
Wednesday. However, confidence remains low with respect to
coverage amount and whether or not any of the terminal sites will
be impacted. Therefore, have opted to leave this weather element
out of this fcst cycle.

Andrade

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /Issued 356 PM CST Tue Feb 20 2018/

DISCUSSION...
Cold post-frontal surface high pressure ridge will dominate the
weather across the Texas and Oklahoma Panhandles through Thursday,
with wintry weather possible Wednesday through Thursday morning.

Tonight expected to be cold and otherwise uneventful.  On
Wednesday, increasing upslope flow and isentropic lift will be
augmented by a jet streak in southwest flow.  Models soundings
offer varying strength of warm nose aloft, leading to higher than
desired uncertainty regarding precipitation types.  Fortunately,
available moisture remains very limited, so do not expect a
widespread winter event.

Light snow looks to be the primary precipitation type across the
northwest half of the forecast area on Wednesday, with sleet and
freezing rain being more likely across the southeast half.  Have
greatest concern for far southeast Texas Panhandle, where right
entrance region to jet streak will be positioned in the afternoon
and early evening.

Another jet streak and vorticity maximum emerges from western trof
on Thursday, with light freezing rain possible during the
morning.

For Friday through Tuesday, warm weather returns with highs in the
50s and 60s. Low pops for light rain showers offered by blend in
eastern sections Friday through Saturday have been accepted.  03

Cockrell

FIRE WEATHER...
Northeast winds tonight and Wednesday morning will become east and
southeast Wednesday afternoon. Southeast winds Wednesday night
will become south and southwest on Thursday. No elevated or
critical fire weather conditions are expected through this time.

On Friday and Saturday elevated fire weather conditions may
develop across far western sections of the Panhandles due to dry
southwest winds on Friday and dry northwest winds on Saturday.

On Sunday fire to critical weather conditions look to be more
likely, with the western half of the Panhandles being favored.

Elevated fire weather conditions may develop on Monday across the
northwest part of the Combined Panhandles.  03

&&

.AMA Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
TX...None.
OK...None.

&&

$$



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