Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Amarillo, TX

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FXUS64 KAMA 280520

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Amarillo TX
1220 AM CDT Fri Oct 28 2016

06Z Issuance...VFR conditions expected through the period. Southerly
winds will turn gusty after 14Z with gusts up to 30kts.



.PREV DISCUSSION... /Issued 515 PM CDT Thu Oct 27 2016/

Dry weather and above normal temperatures will continue across the
OK and TX Panhandles through the early next week as an upper level
ridge of high pressure dominates the region. This ridge of high
pressure is forecast to flatten and slide south and east of the area
by Saturday, with the fcst area in WSW to SW flow aloft durg the
weekend into early part of next week. Short and medium range models
are in general agreement and were accepted.

It appears a change in the weather pattern is in store for the latter
part of this forecast package. An upper level low pressure system is
forecast to move across srn CA and the desert SW Tuesday into
Wednesday, then affect the srn high plains next Wednesday and
Thursday. Medium range models differ significantly in handling this
storm system, with the 12Z GFS faster, more open, and with a track
through CO and, consequently, less precipitation for our fcst area
overall. The 12Z ECMWF is the opposite and is much slower, closed
off, and depicts a more srn track through srn NM and the TX south
plains, resulting in a lot more precipitation. Other medium range
models offer solutions in between these extremes. Have gone with a
compromise solution and Incorporated slgt chc to chc pops for next
Wednesday into Thursday pending better model agreement. Cooler temps
expected towards the end of this 7 day forecast.


Elevated fire weather conditions will be possible across the western
Oklahoma Panhandle and the northwest Texas Panhandle on Friday
afternoon due to southwest winds of 15 to 25 mph with higher gusts
along with forecast minimum relative humidity values near 20 percent.



.AMA Watches/Warnings/Advisories...



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