Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Amarillo, TX

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FXUS64 KAMA 242334
AFDAMA

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Amarillo TX
634 PM CDT Sun Sep 24 2017

.AVIATION...
For the 00z TAFs...
Only isolated showers and a few thunderstorms being detected by
KAMA radar at this time.  Warm mid-level temperatures are
depicted overhead with RAP40 analysis depicting 500 mb
temperatures -6 degrees Celsius.  Will keep thunder out of the
near-term forecasts and monitor closely.  Otherwise, moist
southeast surface winds will continue, with MVFR ceilings
returning this evening.  MVFR to possibly IFR ceilings expected
to prevail late tonight and through the day on Monday.  Numerous
rain showers are expected, with thunder becoming more likely
Monday afternoon with approach of cold front.

Cockrell

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /Issued 353 PM CDT Sun Sep 24 2017/

DISCUSSION...
Isolated showers continue to pop up and stream northeastward
across the area this afternoon. This will continue to be the case
through the afternoon and into the early evening. The TTU WRF
seems to be handling this morning`s line and the scattered showers
the best of the CAMs, although seems slightly displaced too far
northward. CAMs and hi-res models including the TTU WRF indicate
later tonight a series of shortwaves will cross into the area and
re-spark more widespread showers and thunderstorms. Expect the
precip to congeal and train over the central to eastern zones
which could bring heavy rainfall amounts to the area. At this
time, while PWAT values are still remaining above 90th percentile, have
held off from issuing another Flood Watch product as think this
situation will best be handled with isolated flood advisories if
necessary. Severe threat with these storms will be very low
for hail or winds. Flooding issues will be the main concern.

A cold front is still expected to make its way across the area
Monday and bring more chances for heavy rain. Medium and long
range guidance suggests after the frontal passage that precip
chances will continue to plague the area due to shortwaves. The
end of the week finally will see some dry weather as zonal flow
takes over as a closed low lifts out of the far southwest US.

Beat

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Amarillo TX                60  67  53  64  52 /  50  80  70  40  30
Beaver OK                  62  70  53  67  52 /  70  80  70  30  30
Boise City OK              51  62  47  62  48 /  60  60  30  20  20
Borger TX                  62  69  55  66  54 /  50  80  70  40  30
Boys Ranch TX              59  67  53  66  52 /  50  70  70  40  30
Canyon TX                  60  67  52  64  52 /  50  80  70  40  30
Clarendon TX               62  72  56  66  54 /  60  80  80  50  40
Dalhart TX                 55  65  50  63  49 /  50  70  50  30  20
Guymon OK                  57  66  50  65  51 /  60  80  50  30  20
Hereford TX                59  67  53  64  52 /  50  80  70  40  30
Lipscomb TX                63  72  55  66  54 /  60  90  80  40  30
Pampa TX                   61  70  54  65  53 /  50  80  70  40  30
Shamrock TX                64  75  59  67  56 /  70  90  80  60  40
Wellington TX              64  77  60  68  57 /  70  80  80  70  50

&&

.AMA Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
TX...None.
OK...None.

&&

$$

03/14


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