Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Amarillo, TX

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FXUS64 KAMA 041654
AFDAMA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AMARILLO TX
1154 AM CDT FRI SEP 4 2015

.AVIATION... /FOR THE 18Z TAFS/
SATELLITE-DERIVED CLOUD INFORMATION INDICATES BASES AROUND 15-20 KFT.
SOME CU MAY INCREASE NEAR THE TOP OF THE MIXED LAYER LATER THIS
AFTERNOON BUT VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PREVAIL. SIMILAR TO
YESTERDAY...SHORT TERM MODELS ARE NOT FAR ENOUGH EAST WITH THE
SURFACE TROUGH WHICH IS ANALYZED TO BE JUST WEST OF KDHT AND KGUY.
LATER TODAY IT SHOULD SHIFT FURTHER WEST AND ONCE MIXING SUBSIDES
WINDS MAY BACK SLIGHTLY TO MORE SOUTHEASTERLY WHILE GUSTS DECREASE.
WINDS SHOULD BEGIN TO VEER BACK TO SOUTHWESTERLY TOWARD THE END OF
THE TAF PERIOD.

BRB

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 432 AM CDT FRI SEP 4 2015/

DISCUSSION...
A SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT WILL ALLOW SUB-TROPICAL MOISTURE TO ADVECT
NORTHEAST ACROSS THE PANHANDLES TODAY THROUGH THE WEEKEND AS AN UPPER
HIGH REMAINS OVER NORTH AND CENTRAL TEXAS. MAINLY MID AND HIGH LEVEL
CLOUDS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE WEEKEND WITH ISOLATED CONVECTION
EXPECTED MAINLY ACROSS THE NORTHWEST SECTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA
MAINLY THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING TODAY. THE UPPER HIGH WILL SLOWLY
TRY TO BUILD BACK TO THE NORTH AND WEST BY LATE IN THE WEEKEND
ALTHOUGH ONE SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL APPROACH THE PANHANDLES FROM THE
WEST BY SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND ANOTHER BY SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND
EVENING. ISOLATED CONVECTION WILL BE POSSIBLE MAINLY ACROSS THE
WESTERN SECTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA SATURDAY AFTERNOON...AND ACROSS
MUCH OF THE AREA SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. SURFACE LOW OVER THE
CENTRAL PLAINS STATES TODAY THROUGH THE WEEKEND WITH A SURFACE TROUGH
EXTENDING SOUTH AND SOUTHWEST INTO EASTERN NEW MEXICO AND THE WESTERN
SECTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA AIDING IN THE CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT.

SURFACE LOW DROPS SOUTH INTO THE NORTHERN AND EASTERN PANHANDLES BY
NEXT TUESDAY WHICH WILL USHER IN A STRONG COLD FRONT ON TUESDAY.
CONVECTION CHANCES SHOULD BE ON THE INCREASE EARLY NEXT WEEK THROUGH
THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK AS A 1015-1020 MB SURFACE HIGH BUILDS DOWN
INTO THE PANHANDLES FROM THE NORTHWEST AND ALLOWS FOR A MUCH COOLER
AND MORE MOIST UPSLOPE SURFACE FLOW TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY.
CONSIDERABLE CLOUDINESS AND CONVECTION WILL RESULT IN NEAR OR BELOW
SEASONABLE NORMS TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY WITH HIGHS IN THE 70S AND
80S. BIGGEST CONCERN FROM ANY OF THE CONVECTION WILL BE HEAVY RAIN
GIVEN FORECAST PWATS OF 0.75 INCH TO ONE INCH BETWEEN NEXT TUESDAY
AND THURSDAY.

SCHNEIDER

&&

.AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
OK...NONE.

&&

$$

17/3


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