Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Binghamton, NY

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FXUS61 KBGM 260641

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Binghamton NY
241 AM EDT TUE JUL 26 2016


High pressure over the Great Lakes will drift east today and
Wednesday and bring dry and warm weather to the region. The next
chance for rain will come on Thursday as a cold front drops into
the area from Canada.



Lgt winds and clr skies aft todays rain has allowed dense fog to
form over the area this mrng. Fog will burn off ltr this mrng and
be flwd by mstly sunny skies under hipres. Fcstd sndg is very dry
and stable so while a bit of cu may form under the inv...esp
early...virtually no chance of any pcpn today. Highs today will be
arnd the same as ystrdy...but under full sun instead of clds. RH
will be considerably lwr with a 10 degree dew pt drop.



Quiet into Thu mrng as the sfc hipres slides slowly east. Temps
will creep up a bit Wed but still be comfortable with lwr

Weak trof/cold fnt aprchs and passes on Thu. Upr support for the
sfc feature remains well to the north and it may even remain dry
over nepa. Still...with the htg and the presence of a sfc bndry
certainly conv shd break out in the aftn hrs with the broad upr
trof and slgtly lwrd hgts of the shrt wv. Temps and humidity up
again thu as moisture pools ahd of the sfc feature.


For Thursday night and Friday, the EURO, GFS and CMC all indicate
a surface wave associated with an upper level short wave impacting
NY and PA. The EURO and CMC are most aggressive and have a nice
shot of rain for our drought stricken areas in central NY. The GFS
is much farther south and east and drier. For now went with
superblend POPs for these time periods. Then for Friday through
Sunday models diverge with the EURO showing the best potential for
showers and thunderstorms holding the main upper level wave back
to the west with a more well defined moist southerly flow into
the weekend over our area. The GFS and CMC show a weaker upper short
wave to the west of our area and less organized convective
potential. So for now have 30-40 chance POPS through the weekend
as per superblend.

Leaned heavily on superblend and collaborated grids with
neighboring WFOs for this period.


After a rainy Monday, clear skies and light winds overnight will
set the stage for patchy fog Tuesday morning. IFR fog is forecast
at ELM during the early morning hours, with mainly MVFR fog
restrictions at AVP and ITH.

Skies will be mainly clear today with a northwest wind of 10 to 15
knots. Light winds are forecast for tonight.


Wed to Wed night...mainly VFR.

Thu-Sat...showers and thunderstorms. Mostly VFR to MVFR.




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