Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Binghamton, NY

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000
FXUS61 KBGM 171430
AFDBGM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY
1030 AM EDT THU APR 17 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE HAS BROUGHT SUNSHINE AND DRY WEATHER TO THE AREA
TODAY, CONTINUING INTO FRIDAY. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL MODERATE
INTO THE 50S. A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL BRING A CHANCE OF SHOWERS
FRIDAY NIGHT AND EARLY SATURDAY. DRY WEATHER WILL RETURN FOR
SATURDAY AFTERNOON INTO SUNDAY. A WARM UP TO ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPERATURES CAN BE EXPECTED EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
10 AM UPDATE...

DESPITE THE HIGH CLOUDS AND TEMPERATURES NEAR RECORD LOWS THIS
MORNING...TEMPERATURES ARE RISING QUICKLY THROUGH THE 30S ON THE
WAY TO THE U40S TO M50S. WITH THE HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED IN NEW
ENGLAND...LITTLE MOISTURE AT LOW LEVELS WITH DEWPOINTS IN THE
TEENS. AFTERNOON MINIMUM RELATIVE HUMIDITIES BELOW 20 PERCENT BUT
WINDS WILL RISE TO ONLY 10 TO 15 MPH SO NO RED FLAG WARNINGS.

MADE ONLY MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO THE GRIDS. HIGH TEMPS LOOK TO BE
ON TRACK. WEATHER WILL CONTINUE TO BE DRY TODAY INTO FRIDAY WITH
THE SFC HIGH PRESSURE.

1 AM UPDATE...
HIPRES OVR NRN NEW ENGLAND WL BUILD EAST INTO THE CANADIAN MARITIMES
THIS AFTN. THIS WL VEER FLOW ARND TO THE SOUTHEAST TDA AND PRESSURE
GRADIENT WL TIGHTEN BTWN AFOREMENTIONED HIGH AND LOPRES IN THE UPR
MIDWEST. THIS WL BRING INCRSG WINDS TO BTWN 10-15KTS OCNLY GUSTING
DRG THE AFTN.

H8 TEMPS INCRS TO NR -4C AND WITH MIXING TO H8 THIS WUD YIELD MAX
TEMPS ARND THE 50 DEGREE MARK. HWVR FULL SUN, SRLY FLOW AND DRY
DWPTS WL LKLY LEAD TO WARMER TEMPS FOR TDA AND HV GONE CLOSER TO MAV
NUMBERS WITH VLY TEMPS IN THE M50S AND HIGHER TERRAIN STRUGGLING TO
REACH 50F. THESE TEMPS ARE SIMILAR TO WHAT OCCURRED YDA IN THE OH
VLY UNDER THE SAME SFC PATTERN.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
320 AM UPDATE...
CWA WL CONT TO BE ON PERIPHERY OF ERN CANADA SFC HIGH WITH SRLY FLOW
CONTG OVRNGT. DISCREPANCIES EXIST IN MODELS FOR LATE TONIGHT IN
REGARD TO MARINE LYR MVG NORTH INTO POCONOS. 00Z GFS BRINGS OVC DECK
INTO SERN ZONES AFT 06Z WHILE NAM KEEPS IT OUT OF CWA WITH PERHAPS
JUST A FEW CLDS. CLOSER INSPECTION OF MODELS INDICATE SIMILAR FLOW
PATTERN AT H9 WITH BL WINDS OUT OF THE ENE, MAKING IT TUFF TO GET
MUCH MOISTURE UP INTO POCONOS REGION. GIVEN THE FACT THAT MARINE LYR
CURRENTLY RESIDES OFF OF CAPE HATTERAS AND GFS IS ALREADY OVERDONE
WITH EXTENT OF LOW-LVL MOISTURE LEADS ME TO BELIEVE THAT GFS MAY BE
TOO BULLISH WITH LOW CLDS MVG IN FM THE SOUTH AND WL JUST GO PCLDY
ACRS EXTREME SRN ZONES TONIGHT.

AS FOR LOW TEMPS TONIGHT, AFTER 2 NGTS IN A ROW OF LOW TEMP RECORDS
BEING THREATENED IT DOES NOT APPEAR AS IF TONIGHT WL MAKE IT 3 IN A
ROW. TEMP RECORDS OF 28/25/22 AT AVP/BGM/SYR LOOK AS THO THEY WL RMN
INTACT.

H5 WV NOW LOCATED ACRS THE UPR MIDWEST WL LIFT NORTH TWD JAMES BAY
TONIGHT AS WV GETS PICKED UP BY PIECE OF ENERGY THAT BREAKS OFF OF
ELONGATED SHEAR AXIS CURRENTLY ACRS CANADIAN PRAIRIE PROVINCES. THIS
WL DRAG SFC FRONTAL BNDRY THRU THE CNTRL GREAT LKS DOWN INTO MID-MS
RVR VLY. ONLY IMPACT THIS SYSTEM WL PLAY FOR TONIGHT IS TO GRADUALLY
INCRS HIGH CLDS ACRS NWRN CNTYS BY DAYBREAK.

MOST OF THE FRCG WITH CDFNT LOOKS TO LIFT NORTH OF CWA ON FRIDAY.
THIS IN CONJUNCTION WITH DRY LOW LVLS WL LEAD TO JUST AN ISOLD
SHOWER OR EVEN SPRINKLES DRG THE DAY. HIGH TEMPS FOR FRIDAY WL
SETTLE OUT FAIRLY CLOSE TO NRML IN THE U50S/NR 60 EXCEPT FOR HIGHER
TERRAIN OF WRN CATS WHERE THEY WL STRUGGLE TO REACH THE LWR 50S.

FROPA MVS THRU BY 12Z SATURDAY WITH ONLY A WIND SHIFT EXPECTED AND
LGT SHOWERS POSSIBLY MIXING WITH SNOW AFT 06Z SATURDAY. QPF AMNTS WL
BE LIGHT AS BEST LIFT HEADS UP INTO NRN NY STATE AND SRN CANADA.
OVRNGT LOWS WL DIP INTO THE M30S BY SAT MRNG WHICH IS STILL SOME 5-8
DEGREES WARMER THAN PRVS DAY.

AS SYSTEM PULLS EAST DRG THE DAY ON SATURDAY LEAVING SLIGHTLY COOLER
TEMPS ON NRLY FLOW IN ITS WAKE ONLY A FEW SHOWERS WL RMN ACRS ERN
ZONES DRG THE MRNG HRS. HV PULLED POPS AFT 18Z AND HV CLRD SKIES AS
1035MB HIPRES BUILDS IN FM THE NORTH, FINISHING OUT THE END OF THE
SHORT TERM.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
345 AM THU UPDATE... NO CHGS TO THE GRIDS ATTM...AS THE 00Z THU
MODEL SUITE REMAINS CONSISTENT WITH EARLIER RUNS.

A GENERALLY LOW AMPLITUDE PROGRESSIVE FLOW PATN IS STILL BEING
ADVERTISED IN THE MED RNG PD. THIS SHOULD LEAD TO NRN STREAM S/WV
AND FRNTL PASSAGES ABT EVERY 48-72 HRS...EACH ACCOMPANIED BY ONLY
LGT PCPN.

THE START OF THE PD STILL LOOKS MAINLY DRY SUN-SUN NGT...WITH
SHWRS SLOWLY SPREADING SEWD ACRS THE FA LTR MON INTO EARLY TUE.
DRIER WX SHOULD FOLLOW AGN LTR TUE AND WED...ALG WITH AT LEAST
SOMEWHAT COOLER TEMPS.

DAILY HIGHS SHOULDN`T BE FAR FROM CLIMO FOR LATE APRIL (MOSTLY IN
THE 60S SUN AND MON...PERHAPS COOLING A BIT INTO THE 50S BY THE
MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK).

PREV DISC... 12 PM WED UPDATE...

FOLLOWED WPC GUIDANCE. NO BIG UPPER LEVEL TROFS OR RIDGES SO
TEMPERATURES CLOSE TO NORMAL. RAINFALL AMOUNTS DO NOT LOOK TO BE
ENOUGH TO CAUSE PROBLEMS THIS PERIOD. HIGH PRESSURE AND DRY SAT
NGT INTO SUNDAY. A COLD FRONT GOES SLOWLY SE THROUGH THE CWA ON
MONDAY. WARM ENOUGH FOR ALMOST ALL RAIN. CHC SHOWERS SUN NGT TO
MON IN NY THEN CHC EVERYWHERE MON NGT AND TUE. QUESTIONS ON HOW
QUICKLY IT WILL CLEAR TUE NGT AND WED IN NW FLOW AHEAD OF HIGH
PRESSURE. NW FLOW NOT COLD ENOUGH FOR LAKE EFFECT LIKE THE LAST
12 HOURS.

&&

.AVIATION /14Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
12Z THU UPDATE... VFR TO PREVAIL THROUGH 12Z FRI...WITH JUST PATCHY
HIGH-LVL CLDNS.

ONE OF OUR WEATHER MODELS IS STILL SUGGESTING THAT A LWR CLOUD
DECK WILL DVLP AT KAVP LATE IN THE PD (ARND OR JUST AFTER 06Z
FRI). IF THIS WERE TO HAPPEN...THEN MVFR CIGS WOULD BE QUITE PSBL.
HOWEVER...ATTM...CONFIDENCE IS NOT NEARLY HIGH ENUF TO INCLUDE
THIS IN THE FCST. THE MOST PROBABLE SCENARIO IS THAT LWR CLDS STAY
TO OUR S...WITH VFR CONTINUING.

LGT WINDS EARLY THIS MRNG...WILL BECOME SE TDY AND THIS
EVE...INCREASING TO 8-12 KT. WINDS MAY BECOME GUSTY AT KITH (INTO
THE 20-25 KT RANGE).

OUTLOOK...

FRI...VFR.

FRI NGT TO SAT...MVFR PSBL IN SHOWERS.

SAT NGT TO SUN...VFR.

SUN NGT TO MON...SOME MVFR RESTRICTIONS PSBL.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
10 AM THU UPDATE...

NO FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS THROUGH FRIDAY. DESPITE FAIRLY DRY CONDS
TODAY AND FRI (MIN RH VALUES GENERALLY 20-35%), SOUTHERLY WINDS
SHOULD REMAIN UNDER 20 MPH. FUEL MOISTURE WILL DRY TODAY AND
FRIDAY ENOUGH FOR 10 HOUR FUELS TO BE UNDER 10 PERCENT.

SO THE LIMITING FACTOR TODAY AND FRIDAY WILL BE THE WINDS ON ANY
FLAGS.

&&

.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...PVN/TAC
NEAR TERM...PVN/TAC
SHORT TERM...PVN
LONG TERM...MLJ/TAC
AVIATION...MLJ/RRM
FIRE WEATHER...TAC






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