Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Binghamton, NY

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000
FXUS61 KBGM 291745
AFDBGM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY
145 PM EDT FRI AUG 29 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING FAIR WEATHER TO NY AND PA TODAY. A STORM
SYSTEM WILL MOVE THROUGH NORTHERN NY AND BRING A CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS
SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
950 AM UPDATE...LATEST VIS SHOWS MID/HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS ACROSS
WESTERN NY AND INTO THE LAKE PLAIN. EXPECT THIS AREA OF HIGH
CLOUDINESS TO SPREAD ACROSS THE NRN CWA THROUGH MID AFTERNOON IN
AN AREA OF MID LEVEL WARMING. PARTLY SUNNY SKIES ARE STILL
ANTICIPATED ACROSS THE NRN CWA WITH MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES IN THE
CENTRAL/SOUTHERN AREAS. NO OTHER CHANGES.

PREVIOUS DISC...
PATCHY VALLEY FOG WILL BURN OFF BETWEEN 1230 AND 1330Z THIS
MORNING. THEREAFTER HIGH PRESSURE WILL SETTLE IN FOR A SUNNY,
CLEAR WEATHER DAY.

STILL COOL IN THE BOUNDARY LAYER UP TO 850MB SO HAVE RESTRICTED
MAX TEMPS TO THE MID AND UPPER 70S DESPITE NEAR FULL SUN.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
A STORM SYSTEM WILL PULL OUT OF THE GREAT LAKES AND SPREAD
INCREASING MOISTURE INTO NY/PA SATURDAY AFTERNOON INTO SUNDAY.
THERE IS A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR A SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM OVER THE FAR
WESTERN FA LATE SATURDAY.

FRONT WILL PUSH TOWARD LAKES ERIE AND ONTARIO SATURDAY NIGHT, SO
HAVE ORIENTED POPS FROM NE TO SW. STICKING TO MAINLY CHC/SCT
COVERAGE AS INSTABILITY AND FORCING ARE LACKING. EXPECT FAR SERN
FA TO REMAIN DRY.

SEVERAL HUNDRED JOULES OF CAPE FORECAST FOR SUNDAY AHEAD OF
FRONTAL PUSH. NOT A TON OF INSTABILITY, BUT ENOUGH TO PUSH THE
POPS INTO THE HIGH CHANCE TO LIKELY RANGE. BULK SHEAR VALUES ARE
SUGGESTIVE OF SOME ORGANIZATION (AROUND 30+ KTS) SO WILL NEED TO
KEEP AN EYE ON ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
UPR RDG OVER THE ERN U.S. WILL BE FLATTENED BY STRONGER ZONAL FLOW
MOVG INTO THE GTLAKES EARLY NXT WEEK. ASSOCIATED FNTL SYSTEM WILL MOV
THRU THE RGN IN THE TUE/TUE NGT TIME FRAME WITH SHRA/TSRA. HIGH
PRES IS XPCTD TO REBUILD INTO THE AREA BY WED. SOME TIMING DIFFS
AFTER THIS POINT W/RESPECT TO NXT UPSTREAM SYSTEM. WPC GUIDANCE
LOOKED GOOD BUT WE MADE A FEW MINOR ADJUSTMENTS..1) SHOWED MORE IN
THE WAY OF CLDS WITH MIDWEEK FROPA, AND 2) LIMITED POPS TO HI CHC
GIVEN WE`RE STILL SVRL DAYS OUT. SEASONAL TO SLIGHTLY ABV NORMAL
TEMPS.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
VFR WILL PREVAIL FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE AFTN AND INTO THE EVNG
HRS WITH FEW-SCT DIURNAL CU AND SCT-BKN CI. LATER TNGT...PROFILES
FROM THE NAM/GFS SUGGEST ADVECTION/DVLPMNT OF LOWER-LVL STRATUS
INTO PORTIONS OF NE PA AND THE SRN TIER OF NY. RUC AND LCL WRF
PROFILES ARE NOT AS ADAMANT ON THIS DVLPMNT. ATTM SAT PIX SHOW LTL
IN THE WAY OF LOWER CLDS TO OUR S AND SE...SO HEDGED HERE
INDICATING POTNL FOR SCT 1.5-2.5 KFT AT AVP/BGM AFTER 09Z. AT
ELM...A TUFF CALL BUT THINK ANY RESTRICTIONS THERE WOULD BE
RELATED TO VLY FOG/STRATUS FORMATION. VFR TO PREVAIL TMRW AFTER
ANY EARLY MRNG STRICTIONS. WINDS TNGT SELY 5 KTS OR LESS...BECMG
SRLY 10-15 KTS ON SAT.

OUTLOOK...

SATURDAY...PRIMARILY VFR.

SAT NIGHT...PATCHY MVFR LATE IN HZ/BR.

SUN THROUGH TUESDAY...RESTRICTIONS FROM SCT SHRA/TSRA...MAINLY SUNDAY
AND TUESDAY.

WED...VFR.

&&

.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...DJP
NEAR TERM...DJP/RRM
SHORT TERM...DJP



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