Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Binghamton, NY

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FXUS61 KBGM 211921
AFDBGM

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Binghamton NY
321 PM EDT Sat Oct 21 2017

.SYNOPSIS...
The dry and warm weather will continue into Monday, under a
large area of high pressure. A cold front will approach the
area Tuesday bringing rain, and cooler conditions for much of
the rest of the week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
Upper ridge remains in place holding off the approaching cold
front, at least through the near term. This will keep warm and
dry conditions over the area, although the mornings will be
cool with the clear skies and light winds. Some high clouds will
stream across the area at times as upper level moisture begins
to return up the western edges of the ridge. Also, models hint
that some marine moisture may slip in from the Atlantic under
the surface high Monday, especially over the higher elevations
in the easter zones.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
1 pm update...

Monday remains dry and warm as the upper level ridge and surface
high move east through New England. Some models bringing
afternoon sprinkles in with increasingly moist south to
southeast flow well ahead of the main batch. Have kept it dry
due to the deep very dry air.

Digging upper level trough drops into the Midwest Monday to
Tuesday. This will push a strong cold front through Tuesday with
showers. Rain amounts fell with a faster movement of the front.
A surface wave along the north south front is slower and
enhances rainfall to the east. Amounts now around an inch which
we will have no trouble handling.

Front moves into the west early Tuesday morning and exits in the
east in the evening. Instability will be tough to get with so
many clouds. Wind fields and shear again strong.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
230 pm update...

A lull with a few showers and light rainfall amounts late
Tuesday night into Wednesday before the upper level trough makes
it here with cooler air and lake enhanced showers. The deep
trough lifts slowly northeast Wednesday night and Thursday.

High pressure builds in from the south Thursday night and
remains into Friday night.

Questions for next weekend on when the next strong cold front
and deep upper level trough gets here.

Temperatures above normal except for Thursday which will be
close to normal.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
VFR will continue through the TAF period with high, thin broken
clouds and light winds under high pressure.

Outlook...

Sunday night through Monday...VFR.

Tuesday...Restrictions likely in rain.

Wednesday and Thursday...Restrictions possible in showers.

&&

.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...None.
NY...None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...DGM
NEAR TERM...DGM
SHORT TERM...TAC
LONG TERM...TAC
AVIATION...DGM



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