Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Binghamton, NY

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FXUS61 KBGM 280911
AFDBGM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY
411 AM EST SUN DEC 28 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT IS PASSING THROUGH NEW YORK AND PENNSYLVANIA WITH RAIN
SHOWERS THIS MORNING. THIS FRONT WILL BRING COOLER WEATHER FOR
MONDAY AND TUESDAY...WITH DRY CONDITIONS OTHER THAN A CHANCE FOR
LIGHT LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS IN PARTS OF CENTRAL NEW YORK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
3 AM UPDATE...

MILD CONDITIONS CONTINUE AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT WITH SHOWERS. WIND
SHIFT AND COLDER AIR IN WRN NY WILL MOVE IN LATER THIS MORNING NW
HALF AND MIDDAY SE. TEMPERATURES WILL DROP INTO THE 30S. RAIN
SHOWERS ACROSS MOST OF THE CWA NOW WILL CONTINUE UNTIL SUNRISE
THEN RAPIDLY END FROM NW TO SE THIS MORNING. RAINFALL AMOUNTS LOOK
SIMILAR TO OLD FORECASTS. MAX QUARTER INCH IN NE AND ONE TO TWO
TENTHS ELSEWHERE. AIR MIGHT BE COLD ENOUGH FOR A FLURRY AT HIGHER
ELEVATIONS BEFORE ENDING BUT NO SNOW ACCUMULATIONS EXPECTED.

THIS AFTERNOON SOME CLEARING AND COOLER AIR FROM THE NW SLOWLY
COMING IN. SHOULD BE DRY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
3 AM UPDATE...

WEAK LAKE EFFECT EVENT SETS UP TONIGHT AND CONTINUES INTO TUESDAY
NIGHT. CAA BRINGS IN -10C 850 AIR TONIGHT FALLING TO -14C MONDAY
NIGHT. LOW LEVEL FLOW IS AROUND 300 DEGREES THE ENTIRE PERIOD.
MOISTURE IS NOT DEEP...MOSTLY BELOW 6K FT... AND TEMPERATURE
DIFFERENTIAL IS MARGINAL. FORCING IS WEAK WITH A ZONAL FAST FLOW
ALOFT. LOW CHC TO SCHC POPS IN CENTRAL NY MUCH OF THE PERIOD WITH
DUSTING AMOUNTS. NONE OF THE MODELS SHOW MUCH QPF.

NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES MONDAY FALL TO BE BELOW NORMAL TUESDAY.
HIGHS TUESDAY IN THE 20S.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
4 AM SUN UPDATE... ONCE AGN...ONLY MINOR CHGS TO THE EXISTING
FCST WITH THIS UPDATE.

A SEASONABLY COLD WLY FLOW PATN SHOULD PREVAIL WED-FRI ACRS
NY/PA...WITH A BROAD TROUGH IN THE UPR LVLS COVERING ERN CANADA
AND THE NERN CONUS. ALTHOUGH THIS COULD BRING SOME LES TO FAR NRN
PTNS OF THE FA...A CHANGEABLE FLOW PATN IN THE LWR LVLS (VARYING
BETWEEN SW AND WNW OVER TIME)...AS WELL AS FAIRLY LOW INVERSION HGTS...
SHOULD PRECLUDE A SIG LES EVENT. OUTSIDE OF THE PRIMARY LES
AREAS (NY`S SRN TIER AND NE PA)...CONDS LOOK MAINLY DRY.

WE CONTINUE TO WATCH HOW SRN STREAM ENERGY EMANATING FROM THE SWRN
CONUS/SRN PLAINS WILL EVOLVE BY NEXT WEEKEND. THE LATEST RUNS OF
THE EC/GFS/GEM ALL HAVE THE SAME BASIC IDEA...IN THAT THIS PIECE
OF ENERGY WILL OPEN UP AND TRACK QUICKLY NEWD...LIKELY THROUGH THE
OH VLY/ERN LKS RGN...AND ULTIMATELY ACRS ONT/QUE. GIVEN THE PROGGED
DEPTH OF THE WRN CONUS TROUGH THIS WEEK...AND RECENT PERSISTENCE
OF AN UPR RIDGE OFF THE SERN U.S. COAST...THIS SEEMS LIKE A
REASONABLE SCENARIO. THIS WOULD ULTIMATELY PLACE CNY/NE PA ON THE
WARM SIDE OF THIS SYSTEM...WITH PERHAPS A BRIEF SHOT OF SNOW AT
THE START...FOLLOWED BY A TRANSITION TO MIXED PCPN/RAIN...BEFORE
PSBLY ENDING AS SOME SNOW SHWRS/FLRYS BEHIND THE EVENTUAL COLD FROPA SAT
NGT/EARLY SUN.

AN EARLY PEEK BEYOND THIS TIME FRAME HINTS AT PERHAPS THE COLDEST
AMS OF THE WINTER SEASON SO FAR IMPACTING MUCH OF THE NRN STATES
(INCLUDING NY/PA) IN THE DAY 7-10 TIME FRAME. STILL LOTS OF TIME
TO LOOK AT THIS POTENTIAL.

PREV DISC... GRNL WLY FLOW THRU MUCH OF THE XTNDD PD WILL KEEP
GNRLY DRY CONDS...ALTHOUGH SOME LE SNOWS PSBL IN THE FAR NORTH AND
FAR WEST SECTIONS OF THE FCST AREA. VARIOUS WVS/RIPPLES IN THE
FLOW WILL OCNLY ENHANCE OR CHG LOCATIONS OF...THE SNOW SHWRS.
TEMPS REALLY NOT ALL THAT COLD FOR THE BEGINNING OF WINTER...BUT
COLD ENUF FOR SNOW WHEN PCPN DOES FALL. CHGS BEGIN ON FRI WHEN A
MORE IMPORTANT SYSTEM DVLPS IN RESPONSE TO A BROAD DEEPENING OF
THE TROF OVER THE UPR MIDWEST AND CORRESPONDING RDGG OVER THE WRN
ATLANTIC. THIS WILL ALLOW WRMR AIR...AND DEEPER MOISTURE TO ARRIVE
IN THE AREA FOR THE END OF THE PD. SIGNIFICANT RUN TO RUN AND
MODEL TO MODEL DFRNCS ATTM LEADS TO CNSRBL UNCERTAINTY IN THE
FCST. WILL SIMPLY GO WITH CHANCE POPS AND A RAIN OR SNOW FCST AS
THE PSN AND AMT OF WAA STILL VERY UNCERTAIN.

FOR THE DAILY FCST ITSELF...GNRLY FLWD HPC GUID ONCE AGAIN BUT
ALSO TWEAKED IT TWRD THE COLDER GFS MOS WHICH ALLOWED FOR BETTER
COLLABORATION AND CONSISTENCY IN THE FCST.

&&

.AVIATION /09Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
06Z SUN UPDATE... VFR CONDS OVER THE NEAR-TERM...SHOULD QUICKLY
DETERIORATE BY 08-12Z...AS LWR CIGS/-RA MOVE INTO THE RGN...ASSOCD
WITH THE ENTRANCE OF A COLD FRNT FROM THE W. FOR THE MOST
PART...RESTRICTIONS WILL BE IN THE MVFR/FUEL ALT CATS. HOWEVER...A
PD OF IFR RESTRICTIONS IS PSBL OVER CNY THROUGH 12-14Z...WITH
KRME...KITH...AND KBGM THE MOST LIKELY SITES TO SEE THEM.

POST-FROPA...MVFR CIGS ARE LIKELY TO PERSIST THROUGH THE DAY...AND
RIGHT INTO THIS EVE OVER CNY...AS LOW-LVL MOISTURE PERSISTS...AND
NWLY UPSLOPE WINDS PREVAIL. THE MOST LIKELY SITE TO SEE
IMPROVEMENT TO VFR THIS AFTN AND EVE IS KAVP.

LLWS WILL ALSO BE A CONCERN OVER THE NEAR-TERM...AS SWLY WINDS OF
40-45 KT AT ARND 2K FT AGL WILL BE IN PLACE...WITH LGTR S TO SE
WINDS NEAR THE SFC. WINDS ABV THE DECK WILL WEAKEN AFTER
12Z...ABT THE SAME TIME THAT SFC WINDS INCREASE BEHIND THE
FRNT...SO LLWS SHOULD ABATE AT THAT TIME.

SFC WINDS WILL GUST TO 20-25 KT OUT OF THE NW LTR THIS MRNG AND
INTO THE EARLY AFTN...WITH WINDS LESSENING SOMEWHAT AFTER 18-21Z.

OUTLOOK...

MON...VFR.

TUE/WED/THU...BRIEF RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE AT TIMES FOR
KRME/KSYR...DUE TO LAKE EFFECT -SHSN. OTRWS...VFR IS EXPECTED.

&&

.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...TAC
NEAR TERM...TAC
SHORT TERM...TAC
LONG TERM...DGM/MLJ
AVIATION...MLJ/MDP





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