Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Binghamton, NY

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FXUS61 KBGM 270016
AFDBGM

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Binghamton NY
816 PM EDT Mon Jun 26 2017

.SYNOPSIS...
The cool air will continue through tomorrow as an upper low
moves slowly through the Great Lakes. This will keep a chance of
showers, mainly in the afternoon, into Tuesday. Drier and warmer
weather will return on Wednesday.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
815 PM update...
Shower and thunderstorm activity will slide east and rapidly
diminish over the next 1-2 hours. Patchy river valley fog will
develop late due to partial clearing and light near-surface
winds.

Temperatures fell rapidly into the mid-50s behind the last push
of showers. An additional 5-7 F drop is forecast overnight.

4 PM update...
Trough axis will remain west of the area through Tuesday so
increasingly cooler air will advecting in aloft. So, expect
little change in the weather Tuesday with afternoon showers and
thunderstorms tied to heating. Once again, best chance will be
in the northern zones, closer to the cool air aloft, and along
the lake convergence zones.

Tonight, some valley fog seems likely, especially in those areas
that get a late day shower. Skies will clear allowing temps to
drop back back down to around 50F in rural areas.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
320 PM EDT Update...
The upper-lvl trough will be push off to the east and anti-cyclonic
flow will shift over the region. The outer edge of the mid-lvl ridge
will try and build over the region on Monday. A wave will travel
along the outer edge of this mid-lvl ridge and may produce a few
showers along the far northern portions of the CWA. Mainly Madison
and Oneida Counties and the best chance for precip will be the
morning and early afternoon. This weather pattern will bring a brief
break to much of the area with temperatures widespread in the
70s across NEPA and central NY. Wed night temps will fall into
the low/mid 50s.

However dry weather will be very short lived as the next system
to impact the region will start to move into the area on
Thursday. Showers and thunderstorms could start as early as
Thursday morning. The ECMWF is slightly faster with the start
time of the precip than time than the GFS. But both models have
widespread showers by Thurs afternoon. Temps Thurs looks to be
more near the seasonal norm. Precip may linger through the
night.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
320 PM EDT Update...
SW flow aloft will prevail through most of the forecast period.
Multiple shortwaves are forecast to move across the region
through the period. This type of pattern will lead to an
unsettled weather, thus there is a chance for precip Friday
through Sunday. We may see another break in the pattern on
Monday which may bring us a couple days of dry weather.

It needs to be emphasized that although at least a chance of
showers/storms will be in the forecast through this period, any
all-day washouts look highly unlikely, with significant rain-
free periods, and convective chances greater coincident with
peak heating during the afternoon/early evening hours.

Friday-Monday, look for highs in the upper 70s-low 80s.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
Scattered convection currently across the area will diminish by
02Z. Primarily unrestricted showers/thunderstorms will be
possible until 02Z at KSYR/KRME/KBGM. Late this evening skies
will scatter out with valley fog possible at KELM beginning
around 09Z. Confidence on valley fog at KELM not real high so
will call it MVFR for now. Upper level trough and associated
mid level way combined with diurnal heating will lead to more
showers and thunderstorms late Tuesday morning through the
afternoon. Covered this in the taf by including unrestricted
showers for all sites but KAVP.

Light and variable winds becoming southwest Tuesday morning
around 5-10 knots shifting to the west during the afternoon at
8-12 knots.

Outlook...

Tuesday night/Wednesday...VFR.

Thursday through Saturday...Restrictions likely in showers and
thunderstorms.

&&

.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...None.
NY...None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...DGM
NEAR TERM...DGM/DJP
SHORT TERM...KAH
LONG TERM...KAH
AVIATION...RRM



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