Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Binghamton, NY

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000
FXUS61 KBGM 181756
AFDBGM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY
156 PM EDT THU SEP 18 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL FINISH DROPPING THROUGH THE REGION THIS
AFTERNOON...ACCOMPANIED BY SOME CLOUDS AND PERHAPS A SPRINKLE OR
TWO. COLDER AIR BEHIND THE FRONT COULD BRING SOME SCATTERED FROST
TO THE AREA EARLY FRIDAY MORNING...MAINLY TWIN TIERS AND CATSKILLS
NORTHWARD. DRY WEATHER UNDER HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE INTO
SATURDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL TREND FROM A LITTLE BELOW NORMAL
FRIDAY...TO NEAR NORMAL OVER THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/...
145 PM UPDATE...
FRONT SLIPPING THROUGH THE AREA NOW...WITH SHALLOW POST FRONTAL
DECK OF CLOUDS BECOMING MORE CELLULAR WHILE ADVANCING SOUTHWARD.
HIGHS HAVE ALREADY BEEN SEEN IN CENTRAL NEW YORK AND TEMPERATURES
WILL TREND DOWN...WHEREAS NORTHEAST PA AND SULLIVAN COUNTY NY WILL
GENERALLY HOLD IN THE UPPER 60S-LOW 70S A FEW MORE HOURS. AS
EXPECTED...SPRINKLES HAVE BEEN FEW AND FAR BETWEEN...AND BY 6PM
ANY MENTION OF THEM ARE OUT OF THE FORECAST FOR THE WHOLE AREA.

MAIN ISSUE OF CONCERN IS FROST. THE TRICKY THING IS THAT MODEL
CONSENSUS HAS TRENDED SLIGHTLY MILDER WITH LOWS...AND THERE MAY
STILL BE SOME POST FRONTAL CLOUDS IN THE TWIN TIERS AND EVEN THE
WESTERN CATSKILLS...WHICH MAY LIMIT RADIATIONAL COOLING SOMEWHAT.
FLOW DOES VEER NORTHEASTERLY OVERNIGHT THOUGH WHICH IS GOOD FOR
FALLING DEWPOINTS AND CLEARING SKY. WILL BE MAKING FROST/FREEZE
DECISION VERY SOON.

QUIET DAY FRIDAY WITH HIGH PRESSURE IN CONTROL...PLENTY OF
SUNSHINE...DEWPOINTS ONLY IN THE 30S TO LOW 40S...AND HIGHS MAINLY
IN THE LOW TO MID 60S /5-8 DEGREES BELOW CLIMATOLOGY/.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
HIGH CONTS TO SLIDE EAST LTR FRI INTO SAT AS THE FLOW BECOMES
MORE ZONAL. WAA BEGINS EARLY FRI AND CONTS THRU SAT AHD OF A WV
MVG THRU THE NRN LAKES. SIGNIFICANT WRMG BY LATE SAT AS H8 TEMPS
APRCH 16C BY 00Z SUN.

BEST UPR DYNAMIC SUPPORT FOR PCPN REMAINS WELL NORTH OF THE FCST
AREA THRU THE END OF THE NEAR TERM. STILL...LOOKS LIKE THE XTRM
NRN AREAS MAY BE CLOSE ENUF TO THE SFC CONV AND MAY SEE A STRAY
SHWR.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
330 AM...NO MAJOR CHANGES TO THIS FORECAST. ENHANCED GRIDS A BIT
ON SUNDAY WITH LATEST MOS/WPC GUIDANCE AND ALSO BLENDED TO SMOOTH
IN LIKELY RAIN CHANCES ACROSS CENTRAL NEW YORK IN LINE WITH
NEIGHBORING OFFICES. STILL A FAIR AMOUNT OF UNCERTAINTY ON DAY
4...BUT LATEST ECMWF/GFS MODELS DO SUGGEST THERE WILL BE AT
LEAST SOME RAIN THAT DAY...SO TREND IS BODING WELL FOR RAISING THE
NUMBERS.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...

A SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL SWING ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES REGION SATURDAY
NIGHT INTO SUNDAY AND WILL PUSH A SFC COLD FRONT ACROSS THE AREA
SUNDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING. DIFFERENCES STILL EXIST IN GUIDANCE
WITHIN THE TIMING AND AMOUNT OF PRECIP WITH THIS SYSTEM... HOWEVER
GUIDANCE DOES AGREE THAT THE MAJORITY OF THE PRECIP WILL FALL
SUNDAY AFTERNOON OVER THE CWA.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL START TO BUILD IN FROM THE WEST MONDAY. THIS
TIME AROUND THE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE PRETTY POTENT... THUS COOLER
NIGHTS AND DAYS ARE EXPECTED STARTING MONDAY. THE SFC HIGH
PRESSURE WILL SHIFT FURTHER EAST ON TUESDAY AND END THE CHANCE FOR
PRECIP ACROSS THE REGION ON TUESDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
18Z UPDATE...
SHALLOW FRONT NOW SLIPPING THROUGH THE TERMINALS WITH LIGHT WINDS
VEERING NORTHWEST-NORTH THIS AFTERNOON...THEN VARIABLE OR LIGHT
NORTHEAST-EAST TONIGHT...AND LIGHT SOUTHEAST FRIDAY. KSYR-KRME-KITH
DEEP ENOUGH INTO THE POST-FRONTAL CLOUDS FOR MVFR CIG TO STILL
OCCUR NEXT COUPLE HOURS OR SO BEFORE SCATTERING OUT. FARTHER
SOUTH...TOO MUCH DRY AIR AND THUS REMAINING VFR. MAIN CONCERN
TONIGHT IS WHETHER OR NOT KELM CAN MANAGE VALLEY FOG. LIGHT
NORTHEAST FLOW WILL BE BRINGING IN DRIER AIR...YET TEMPERATURES
WILL ALSO BE FALLING QUICKLY. MODEL GUIDANCE HITS IT HARD...BUT
BECAUSE OF THE DRYING AIR MASS AND WIND DIRECTION...I DO NOT HAVE
SOLID CONFIDENCE IN IT. AT THIS POINT...I HAVE INCLUDED 08Z-12Z
TEMPO GROUP FOR LOW END IFR VIS. IT MAY BE RATHER BOUNCY IN-AND-
OUT DUE TO SHALLOWNESS OF NEAR SATURATED LAYER...AND PLENTY OF
VERY DRY AIR AND MODEST EASTERLY FLOW IMMEDIATELY ABOVE THE
SURFACE.

OUTLOOK...
FRI AND SAT...VFR...EXCEPT FOR LATE NGT/EARLY MORNING FOG AT
KELM.

SUN AND MON...POSSIBLE RESTRICTIONS IN SHWRS...ESPECIALLY SUN.

&&

.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NY...FREEZE WATCH FROM LATE TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING FOR
     NYZ009.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...MDP
NEAR TERM...MDP
SHORT TERM...DGM
LONG TERM...JAB/KAH
AVIATION...MDP






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