Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Binghamton, NY

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FXUS61 KBGM 140149
AFDBGM

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Binghamton NY
849 PM EST Wed Dec 13 2017

.SYNOPSIS...
It will remain very cold through the rest of the work week,
with highs only in the upper teens and 20s. There will be
ongoing lake effect snow across north-central New York into this
evening, which could produce locally heavier amounts. A low
pressure system moves through Pennsylvania tonight, bringing
widespread light to moderate snow areawide, followed by more
lake effect snow showers on Thursday.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/...

945 PM update...

Moderate snow is encroaching on our southwestern counties this
evening.

The latest NAMNEST takes the heaviest snowfall south of our FA,
but sufficient residence time of light-moderate snow will still
accumulate 2 to 4 inches by Thursday morning. At the same time,
temperatures will be very chilly over the advisory area, keeping
surfaces slippery.

Will continue to handle the counites immediately northeast of
the advisory with an SPS. New grids out soon.


330 PM Update....Lake effect snow bands continue to
gradually lift off to the north and east this afternoon, as low
level winds back more westerly. The heaviest snow band is now
located across northern Onondaga County and central Oneida
County. This band could still produce rates up to 1"/hr in some
locations. Additional snowfall in these counties will be up to
4" through early evening. Winter storms warnings for heavy lake
effect snow remain in effect until 6 PM this evening for this
area.

Otherwise, our next weather system is quickly approaching from
the west. A surface low will track from near Chicago to
Pittsburgh to Philadelphia overnight. There will be strong warm
air advection out ahead of this low, along with a good band of
frontogenetic forcing in the 850-700mb range. The best
dynamics/forcing/lift look to track across the northern tier of
PA and into the central southern tier of NY...generally in the
04-10Z (11pm-5am) time period. Steady light snow should move
into Steuben County between 7-9pm, then quickly overspread the
interstate 81 corridor around 10pm...reaching the eastern
portion of the area by midnight. Snow rates could be up to 1"/hr
for a short times along the NY/PA border region. The snow will
quickly diminish, and move southeast, out of the area by around
7am Thursday morning. Overnight snowfall totals are forecast to
range from 2 to 4 inches in Steuben, Chemung counties as well as
all of our NE PA counties. For the rest of the southern tier
(Tioga, Broome, Delaware, Sullivan counties) expect 1 to 3
inches of snow overnight. Further north, across most of Central
NY snow amounts should be lighter, mainly under 2
inches...except locally higher amounts where lake enhancement
lingers in N. Onondaga/Oneida county....where 2 to 4 inches will
be possible. With these totals in mind, decided to go ahead and
issue winter weather advisories for all of our NE PA counties
as well as Steuben and Chemung counties in NY. This advisory is
in effect from 8PM this evening until 10 AM Thursday morning.

After the main synoptic snow moves out of the area early
Thursday morning, we are expecting linger lake effect snow
showers in a cold NW flow through the day...mainly in central
NY. Do not believe accumulations will be particularly
significant at this time...and thus am forecasting amounts of 1
to 4 inches in Onondaga/Madison/W Oneida counties...with less
than an inch elsewhere. Northwest winds will again be breezy on
Thursday between 15-25 mph. High temperatures only reach the
upper teens to mid- 20s Thursday afternoon.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
4 pm update... Residual lake-effect bands Thursday evening
should weaken over time and lift northward, as high pressure
builds in, and the flow backs into the SW.

On Friday, the next approaching clipper system will be crossing
the northern Great Lakes region. There may be enough forced lift
in the afternoon for some light snow in our far northern and
western zones. Overall, the moisture supply is not plentiful, so
amounts look pretty inconsequential.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
4 pm update... A transitional pattern looks to be in store, with
some moderation in temperatures by late in the weekend and early
next week, followed by an influx of somewhat colder air again
towards the end of the period.

Some lake-effect snow is likely by later Friday night and
Saturday across at least our far northern zones behind the
clipper mentioned in the above section. Afterwards, the latter
part of the weekend looks mainly dry, with high pressure
building in.

By early next week, a milder southerly flow sets up, with some
moisture also introducing a chance of rain, or a rain/snow mix
by Monday into Tuesday. As mentioned earlier, colder air
gradually builds back in towards the middle of next week.

&&

.AVIATION /02Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
Lake effect snow is winding down at RME and SYR this evening and
both stations will become VFR soon. A low pushing east out of
Ohio will spread snow back into the area bring ceilings and
visibilities back into the MVFR and IFR range after 03Z. The
snow will move out by 12Z at the latestest leaving VFR
conditions with light snow showers through the end of the TAF
period.

Outlook...

Thursday night...Lake effect snow will probably again visiting
KSYR-KRME; mainly VFR elsewhere.

Thursday night through Sunday...Still multiple chances for snow
showers/intermittent restrictions, from weak passing systems.

&&

.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...Winter Weather Advisory until 10 AM EST Thursday for
     PAZ038>040-043-044-047-048-072.
NY...Winter Weather Advisory until 10 AM EST Thursday for NYZ022-
     024.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...MJM
NEAR TERM...DJP/MJM
SHORT TERM...MLJ
LONG TERM...MLJ
AVIATION...DGM/MJM



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