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000
FXUS61 KBGM 191838
AFDBGM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY
238 PM EDT WED JUN 19 2013

.SYNOPSIS...
A LARGE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE OUR MAIN CONTROLLING FEATURE
FOR THE REST OF THE WORK WEEK, BRINGING RAIN-FREE WEATHER AND
SLOWLY WARMING TEMPERATURES. A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
ARE EXPECTED LATE SATURDAY AFTERNOON INTO THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/...
230 PM UPDATE...
HIGH AND DRY DRG THE NR TERM PD WITH 1020MB HIPRES RIGHT OVRHD. CLR
SKIES EXPECTED TONIGHT WITH WK BNDRY LYR WINDS. MOS GUIDANCE DIPS
OVRNGT LOWS INTO THE L/M-40S THO UPR 30S AT KELM. HV BLENDED MAV/MET
NUMBERS WITH EXPECTED LOWS OF 39-40F AT ELMIRA, SIMILAR TO LAST
NIGHT. POTENTIAL EXISTS FOR PATCHY FOG TONIGHT WITH LIGHTER WINDS,
HWVR CROSS-OVER TEMPS EXPECTED TO BE ARND 38F OR 39F, THUS DOES NOT
APPEAR TO BE FAVORABLE FOR RVR VLY FOG AND HV NOT ADDED INTO GRIDS
ATTM.

FOR THURSDAY, HIPRES WL BUILD OFF OF THE EAST COAST WITH WINDS
TURNING SWRLY. H8 TEMPS WARM TO ARND 10C DRG THE DAY YIELDING HIGHS
IN THE M/U 70S. INVERTED TROF PROGGED TO DVLP DRG THE AFTN AND SWING
THRU CNTRL PA BY EVNG. WITH AIRMASS BEING SO DRY (I.E. PW VALUES
ARND 1 INCH) NOT EXPECTING MUCH IN THE WAY OF SHOWERS TOMORROW, THUS
HV KEPT POPS ARND 10% ACRS THE FAR SWRN ZONES.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
230 PM UPDATE...
QUIET WX CONTS THRU FRIDAY WITH ONLY A SLGT INCRS IN CLD CVR
EXPECTED. FRI MRNG MINS EXPECTED TO RMN ARND 50F THEN RISING TO NR
80 ON FRI AFTN. RIDGE EXPECTED TO HOLD THRU SAT AFTN, THEN SLOWLY
BEGIN TO BREAK DOWN AS S/WV ROUNDS THE UL RIDGE. EXPECT CHC
SHRAS/TSTMS DRG THE AFTN HRS PER ECMWF, WHEREAS GFS BUILDS 588+
RIDGE OVR THE WEEKEND.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
230 PM UPDATE...
WEAK ANTICYCLONIC FLOW WILL SET UP OVER THE REGION AS A STRONG UPPER
LEVEL RIDGE SLIDES EAST AND SETTLES OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN CONUS THIS
WEEKEND. LARGE DIFFERENCES EXIST BETWEEN THE GFS AND ECMWF IN THE
EXTENDED. WENT WITH THE WPC/ECMWF OUTPUT... AS THIS IS A TYPICAL
PATTERN FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE CWA. KEPT SLIGHT TO
CHANGE FOR POPS AS EMBEDDED SHORTWAVES ARE EXPECTED MOVE UP AND
AROUND THE OUTER EDGE OF THE RIDGE. THE GFS KEEPS THE EXTENDED DRY
AND VERY WARM WITH 850 MB TEMPS AT 18 DEGREES C. THIS COULD ALLOW
TEMPS TO RISE INTO THE UPPER 80S FOR MUCH OF THE AREA. AS THIS RIDGE
SHIFTS EAST MID NEXT WEEK... IT APPEARS THERE WILL BE A CHANCE FOR
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
130 PM EDT UPDATE...VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE EARLY
OVERNIGHT HOURS AS HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE BUILDS INTO
CENTRAL NY AND NORTHERN PA. DRY AIR WILL SETTLE OVER THE AREA
TODAY PREVENTING FOG FOR MOST OF THE TAF SITES. FOG MAY DEVELOP
OVER KELM EARLY THURSDAY MORNING AS SHALLOW MOISTURE WILL BE
TRAPPED WITHIN THE VALLEY. WINDS DURING THE AFTERNOON FOR THE NEXT
COUPLE OF HOURS WILL BE GUSTY AND THEN BECOME LIGHT AND VARIABLE
AFTER SUNSET.

OUTLOOK...THU THRU SUNDAY...PRIMARILY VFR, BUT RESTRICTIONS ARE
POSSIBLE SATURDAY AND SUNDAY IN SHRA/TSRA.

&&

.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...PVN
NEAR TERM...PVN
SHORT TERM...PVN
LONG TERM...KAH
AVIATION...KAH