Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Binghamton, NY

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FXUS61 KBGM 210531

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Binghamton NY
131 AM EDT Mon Aug 21 2017

High pressure over the eastern U.S. will keep warm and dry
weather over the area through Monday. A cold front will approach
on Tuesday bringing showers and thunderstorms, some of which
will be strong.


900 PM Update...No major changes to the forecast for tonight as
high pressure continues to dominate the area bringing fair and
quiet weather. Based on the latest high res guidance I did bump
up POPs and sky cover for Monday. Expect Cu field to develop
bringing a mix of sun and clouds for most of the area with some
scattered showers and storms developing by afternoon.

330 PM Update...Surface high pressure over VA this afternoon
will move little through Monday as upper heights build. This
will keep the area dry, with a good likelihood of valley fog
with the light overnight winds and very green vegetation. Deep
wave a strong front approaches Monday night, and models show the
possibility of some isolated showers the Finger Lakes and
central southern tier before daybreak.

With the building upper ridge and low level dry air,
temperatures will rise well into the 80s on Monday. Expect a
good amount of sunshine so eclipse should be visible in the
forecast area, just don`t look at it.


320 PM EDT Update...
Tues a pronounced shortwave trough will approach the region from the
west and and induce a strong 40-50 knot low-lvl jet across the
region. The systems attendant sfc low will lift NE from the Great
Lakes region and track NE into Quebec Tues evening and force a sfc
cold front across NY/PA Tuesday evening. This system continues
to have the potential for severe weather as strong deep wind
shear is expected to develop, along with pronounced mid-lvl
dynamic support, SB CAPE are projected to be around 1000 J/KG, a
defined sfc boundary will be present, the theta-e ridge extends
through PA/NY, and decent low-lvl helicity is expected. The
part that could inhibit severe weather is the lack of mid-lvl
lapse rates. The greatest chance for development will be during
the late afternoon/early evening and I-81W (however can not rule
out the possibility for sever weather I-81E but it is less

Showers are expected to move into the Finger Lakes region around 4-5
PM and move east. Strong winds will be the greatest threat. The
chance for precip will linger through the night. The upper level
trough will push through a secondary front around 12Z on Wed and
slowly swing across NY/PA on Wed. The combination of a slow moving
trough, cooler air, steep lapse rates and plenty of low-lvl
moisture may create a few showers on Wed.

Temps will rise into the mid/upper 80s Tues afternoon and fall into
the 60s Tues night. Temps will rise into the mid/upper 70s Wed


320 PM EDT Update...
Updated forecast with new WPC guidance...

High pressure is expected to move into the region and
is expected to remain over the area for the remainder of the
forecast period. High pressure will result in dry weather below
seasonal temps.


Valley fog is expected this morning although boundary layer
winds will increase during the next several hours lowering
confidence. At KELM, occasional IFR conditions are likely
through 09Z then prevailing IFR is forecast with occasional
conditions near airport minimums through 12Z. At
KITH/KBGM/KAVP, occasional MVFR conditions are forecast between
09Z-12Z. After 13Z conditions will return to VFR. A mid level
short wave will increase cloud cover midday across the southern
terminals sct/bkn conditions around 5K feet are likely with just
scattered at KRME/KSYR. This evening just some mid/high level

Light and variable winds becoming southwest 5-10 knots.


Tuesday...Restrictions likely in showers and thunderstorms.





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