Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Caribou, ME

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FXUS61 KCAR 031047
AFDCAR

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Caribou ME
547 AM EST Sat Dec 3 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
A trough of low pressure will cross the region today. High
pressure will build across the region later Sunday through early
next week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
545 AM update...No significant changes were needed with this
update. An upper shortwave is crossing the state at this hour,
producing scattered snow showers across northern and central parts
of the forecast area. This wave swing by over the next few hours,
then a bit of a break in the precip before round #2. Have made
some adjustments to PoPs to match current radar trends, but
overall forecast remains unchanged.

Previous discussion...A couple of weak shortwaves will cross the
region today. The first will be early this morning and is already
producing rain and snow showers at this hour, particularly across
far Downeast Maine. This first wave will exit later this morning
which may allow for a bit of a break in the shower activity, but
then the second wave will come through this evening, resulting in
more showers. This second wave is fairly weak so overall shower
coverage will be isolated to scattered at best. The showers will
wane after midnight, lingering longest over the higher terrain of
the North Woods. Snow accumulations today and tonight will be an
inch or less. Today`s highs will range from around 30 in the Saint
John Valley to the mid and upper 30s in the Bangor region down
toward the coast. Colder air will spread behind the aforementioned
second shortwave, so overnight temperatures are expected to dip
into the teens in the north and the lower and mid 20s south.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
Overall a fairly quiet weather pattern.  A weak shortwave in
northwest flow aloft is expected to move across the area Sunday
morning with perhaps some flurries or an isolated snow shower in
the Saint John Valley.  A ridge at the surface and aloft will
build into the area Sunday night. The ridge aloft breaks down
quickly Monday, but other than perhaps a bit more cloud cover
Monday no precipitation is expected. The air mass will be near
to just a bit colder than average for early December. Highs
Sunday and Monday will remain below freezing acoss central and
northern portions of the CWA with highs near freezing across the
Down East region. Lows Sun night will be the coldest so far this
season with single digits and low teens north to the mid teens to
low 20s Down East.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
No high impact weather through Wednesday as another surface high
builds into the region Mon night through Tue night.  Dry weather
with temperatures near to a bit below average through the middle of
the week.  A lead shortwave is expected to pass south of the region
late Wednesday and Wed night.   A deep upper trough digs toward the
east coast late in the week.  A low or series of surface lows are
expected to affect the area Thursday into Friday, but there remain
differences in the timing and location of the surface lows that
would impact amounts and precipitation types.  The model ensembles
have a large spread with solutions that range from a strong
secondary low that tracks into the Bay of Fundy or over Nova Scotia
to solutions that keep most of the energy west of the area.  High
confidence that Thu into Fri will feature some precipitation, but
the precipitation types remain uncertain. At this time would favor
snow or mostly frozen precipitation across far northern Maine,
with much more uncertainty across the southern half of the CWA.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
NEAR TERM: MVFR conditions, mainly due to ceilings, will prevail
through this morning at all terminal sites, though the cloud deck
may occasionally lift to above 3500 ft. Scattered snow
showers...mixed with rain at BGR and BHB, could drop visibility to
4-5SM at times through mid morning or so today. The southern sites
will improve to VFR after 16z today, but the northern terminals
will continue to see ceilings of 1500-2500 ft through the
remainder of the period.


SHORT TERM: No significant storms are expected through the middle of
next week. MVFR ceilings are possible Sun morning, mainly at the
northern Taf sites as a weak disturbance moves through. Otherwise,
predominately VFR through mid week.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: A Small Craft Advisory has been issued for this afternoon
through much of tonight. Winds are expected to increase over the
waters later today as a weak surface trough ushers colder air
southward into the region. Gusts around 25 kt are expected this
afternoon and overnight, but offshore winds will keep most waves
below 5 ft. Winds will subside toward daybreak Sunday.


SHORT TERM: Conditions are expected to be below Small craft
advisory levels Sunday through Monday. There is the chance
that a small craft advisory could be needed Monday night into
Tuesday as another surface high builds toward the waters and the
pressure gradient increases.

&&

.CLIMATE...
A total of 32.3 inches of snow has been observed so far
this season at Caribou.  It ranks as the 3rd most snow so early in
the season behind only 1949 (33.2"), and 1974 (36.3").

The fall season (Sep 1-Nov 30) ranked as the 2nd warmest on record
at Caribou with an average temperature of 47.3 degrees. The all-
time record of 47.8 degrees from 2011 still stands.

&&

.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory from 11 AM this morning to 4 AM EST
     Sunday for ANZ050-051.

&&

$$

Near Term...Hastings
Short Term...CB
Long Term...CB
Aviation...Hastings/CB
Marine...Hastings/CB
Climate...CB



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