Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Caribou, ME

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000
FXUS61 KCAR 251405
AFDCAR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME
905 AM EST SUN JAN 25 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE INTO THE NORTHERN MARITIMES
TODAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN BEHIND THE LOW TONIGHT INTO
MONDAY. ANOTHER LOW WILL INTENSIFY OFF THE MID ATLANTIC AND
SOUTHEAST NEW ENGLAND STATES ON TUESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
905 AM UPDATE...SEEING SOME SNOW SQUALLS POPPING UP ACROSS
PORTIONS OF OUR REGION OUT AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT. THESE WILL
PRODUCE A BRIEF BURST OF HEAVY SNOW, REDUCING VISIBILITIES TO LESS
THAN A QUARTER MILE AND DROPPING A QUICK INCH OF SNOW. HAVE
UPDATED THE FORECAST TO INCREASE POPS AND ACCUMULATIONS
ACCORDINGLY. NO OTHER CHANGES NEEDED.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...THE UPPER TROF COULD TOUCH OFF SOME LIGHT
SNOW SHOWERS. THE GFS SOUNDINGS ARE MUCH MORE POTENT W/THE SNOW
SHOWER POTENTIAL SHOWING SOME SB CAPE OF AROUND 40 JOULES FOR THE
NORTHERN 1/2 OF THE CWA. THE NAM IS MUCH WEAKER W/ITS INSTABILITY
BY DOES POINT TO SOME DECENT PVA AT 500MBS WHICH WOULD AID IN THE
FORCING. DECIDED TO CARRY 20% POPS INTO EARLY AFTERNOON AND THEN
THINGS WILL SHUT DOWN AS NW FLOW TAKES OVER AND FORCING WEAKENS.
THAT COLDER AIR WILL POUR INTO THE CWA IN EARNEST BY THE AFTERNOON
AFTER DAYTIME HIGHS ARE HIT EARLY. WE ARE TALKING TEMPERATURES
DOWN TO NEAR ZERO AND POSSIBLY BELOW ZERO ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE
NORTH AND WEST. FURTHER SOUTH INTO CENTRAL AND DOWNEAST, READINGS
ARE EXPECTED TO BE 10-15F BY LATE AFTERNOON. NW WINDS WILL KICK UP
AS WELL W/GUST POTENTIAL TO 30+ MPH INTO EARLY EVENING.

SKIES BEGIN TO CLEAR THIS EVENING AND TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE
TO FALL. SUSTAINED WINDS OF 10-15 MPH AND GUSTS TO 25 MPH EARLY
WILL WIND CHILL CONCERNS INTO EARLY MONDAY MORNING. THIS WILL WILL
BE MAINLY ACROSS THE NORTHERN 1/2 OF THE CWA. TEMPERATURES BY
EARLY MONDAY MORNING ARE FORECAST TO BE BELOW ZERO ALL THE WAY TO
THE DOWNEAST REGION WHICH COULD INCLUDE THE IMMEDIATE COAST. HIGH
PRES IS FORECAST TO BUILD ACROSS THE STATE QUICKLY AND THE PRES
GRADIENT RELAXES W/WINDS FORECAST TO DROP OFF BY 12Z MONDAY. GIVEN
THAT WIND CHILL READINGS WILL DROP TO A RANGE -25 TO -30 ACROSS
THE NORTH AND WEST, DECIDED TO GO W/A WIND CHILL ADVISORY FOR
TONIGHT INTO MONDAY MORNING.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
MAJOR WINTER STORM MAY IMPACT THE REGION TUESDAY INTO
WEDNESDAY...

COLD CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS TO OUR NORTH ON
MONDAY WITH PLENTY OF SUNSHINE EXPECTED BEFORE HIGH CLOUDS BEGIN
TO INCREASE MONDAY AFTERNOON. HIGHS ON MONDAY WILL RANGE FROM ZERO
TO 10 ABOVE NORTH AND CENTRAL AREAS AND 10 T0 15 ABOVE DOWNEAST.

CLOUDS WILL INCREASE MONDAY NIGHT IN ADVANCE OF LOW PRESSURE TRACKING
NORTH ACROSS THE WESTERN ATLANTIC. EXPECT SNOW TO START TO BREAK
OUT ACROSS CENTRAL AND DOWNEAST AREAS AFTER MIDNIGHT MONDAY AND
THEN REACH FAR NORTHERN AREAS AROUND OR SHORTLY AFTER DAYBREAK
TUESDAY. WINTER STORM WATCHES ARE IN EFFECT FOR CENTRAL AND DOWN
EAST MAINE BEGINNING LATE MONDAY NIGHT AND BEGINNING EARLY TUESDAY
MORNING FOR THE REMAINDER OF NORTHERN MAINE.

EXPECT SNOW TO BECOME HEAVY AT TIMES DURING TUESDAY AS THE LOW
TRACKS SLOWLY NORTHEAST. AREAS OF BLOWING SNOW CAN BE EXPECTED ON
TUESDAY WITH WHITEOUT CONDITIONS POSSIBLE ESPECIALLY ACROSS DOWN
EAST AREAS WHERE A LOW LEVEL JET OF AROUND 50 KT AT 925 MB WILL
CROSS THE AREA. NORTHEAST WINDS MAY GUST TO 35 TO 40 MPH AT TIMES
ON TUESDAY WITH EVEN HIGHER GUSTS POSSIBLE ACROSS THE DOWN EAST
COAST.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
WINTER STORM WATCHES ARE IN EFFECT THROUGH WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON
FOR ALL OF NORTHERN AND DOWNEAST MAINE. THE SNOW WILL CONTINUE
TUESDAY NIGHT AND THEN BEGIN TO DIMINISH BY WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AS
THE LOW TRACKS ACROSS NOVA SCOTIA. DRY WEATHER CAN THEN BE
EXPECTED WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY. ANOTHER SYSTEM MAY
BRING MORE SNOW TO THE REGION FRIDAY AND INTO SATURDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /14Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
NEAR TERM: MVFR CIGS ACROSS THE NORTHERN TERMINAL THIS MORNING W/A
PERIOD OF IFR POSSIBLE ESPECIALLY FOR KFVE. CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED TO IMPROVE THIS AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT ACROSS THE
NORTHERN TERMINALS W/VFR. GUSTY NW WINDS REACHING NEAR 30 KTS WILL
LEAD TO SOME TURBULENCE THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING.

SHORT TERM: VFR MONDAY INTO MONDAY NIGHT. WIDESPREAD LIFR/IFR
DEVELOPING TUESDAY AND CONTINUING INTO WEDNESDAY IN SNOW AND
BLOWING SNOW. SIGNIFICANT RUNWAY SNOW ACCUMULATIONS ARE POSSIBLE.
GUSTY NORTHEAST WINDS WILL RESULT IN BLOWING AND DRIFTING SNOW ON
TUESDAY.

VFR CONDITIONS WILL RETURN WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: THE GALE WARNING HAS BEEN EXTENDED INTO THIS EVENING.
THE REASON FOR THIS IS FOR THE SECOND SURGE OF WINDS COMING IN ON
A NW FLOW AS THE UPPER TROF MOVES ACROSS THE WATERS LATER TODAY
INTO THE EVENING. STAYED W/SUSTAINED WINDS OF 25 TO 30 KTS
W/GUSTS TO 35 KTS. THE BEST POTENTIAL FOR GALES WILL BE ACROSS THE
OUTER ZONES. ISSUED A FREEZING SPRAY ADVISORY AS COLD
TEMPERATURES COMING ACROSS THE WATERS ON THE NW FLOW WILL LEAD TO
FREEZING SPRAY. LOCAL FREEZING SPRAY PROGRAM INDICATES MODERATE
FREEZING SPRAY TONIGHT INTO EARLY MONDAY MORNING.

THE OTHER CONCERN IS SOME OVERWASH FOR SEAWALL ROAD IN HANCOCK
COUNTY. THE LOCAL WAVE RUNUP PROGRAM INDICATES SOME MINOR
OVERWASH AT THE TIME OF HIGH TIDE THIS AFTERNOON(AROUND 1 PM).
HIGHER WAVES(8-10 FT) AND A SE SWELL COMPONENT COULD LEAD TO SOME
SPILLOVER. THE NEGATING FACTOR IS THE NW WIND THAT IS FORECAST TO
INCREASE THIS AFTERNOON WHICH WOULD OFFSET THE RUNUP OF THE WAVES.
ATTM, DECIDED NOT TO GO W/ANY COASTAL ADVISORY AS THE EXPECTATION
OF THE OVERWASH APPEARS TO BE MINOR. THIS WILL NEED TO BE
MONITORED BY THE DAYCREW.

SHORT TERM: A STORM WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR THE OUTER WATERS FOR
TUESDAY WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR NORTHEAST WINDS GUSTING AS HIGH AS
50 TO 55 KT. SEAS WILL BE BUILDING TO 15 TO 20 FT. VISIBILITY WILL
BE REDUCED TO LESS THAN 1 NM IN SNOW LATE MONDAY NIGHT AND INTO
WEDNESDAY.

&&

.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...WINTER STORM WATCH FROM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY
     AFTERNOON FOR MEZ001>006-010.
     WIND CHILL ADVISORY FROM 8 PM THIS EVENING TO 8 AM EST MONDAY
     FOR MEZ001>006-010.
     WINTER STORM WATCH FROM LATE MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY
     AFTERNOON FOR MEZ011-015>017-029>032.
MARINE...FREEZING SPRAY ADVISORY FROM 9 PM THIS EVENING TO 7 AM EST
     MONDAY FOR ANZ050>052.
     GALE WARNING UNTIL 10 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR ANZ050>052.
     STORM WATCH FROM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY EVENING FOR
     ANZ050-051.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...HASTINGS/HEWITT
SHORT TERM...DUDA
LONG TERM...DUDA
AVIATION...HASTINGS/HEWITT/DUDA
MARINE...HASTINGS/HEWITT/DUDA



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