Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Caribou, ME

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FXUS61 KCAR 010855
AFDCAR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME
455 AM EDT SAT NOV 1 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A COASTAL STORM FROM THE MID ATLANTIC COAST WILL IMPACT THE
REGION LATE TODAY INTO SUNDAY NIGHT WITH RAIN...CHANGING TO
SNOW AND WIND. FOLLOWING THE STORM AS IT MOVES INTO THE EASTERN
MARITIMES...COLD AND BRISK CONDITIONS CAN BE EXPECTED ACROSS THE
REGION MONDAY...FOLLOWED BY MILDER CONDITIONS ON TUESDAY AS WEAK
HIGH PRESSURE CROSSES THE REGION.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/...
FOR NOW WE KEPT THE WATCH GOING THAT WAS ISSUED YSTDY AFTN AND
ADDED ZONES 4...10 AND 31 (PISCATAQUIS COUNTY) TO THE WATCH AREA.
THE REASON FOR THIS IS THAT THE STORM TOTAL SNFL TOTALS INDICATED
THE POTENTIAL OF 7 INCH TOTALS BRUSHING ERN PTNS OF THESE ZONES
AND TO MATCH THE WNTR STM WATCH ISSUED FOR CNTRL SOMERSET COUNTY
BY WFO GYX.

THE ADDITION OF PISCATAQUIS COUNTY INTO THE WATCH DOES NOT
NECESSARILY SUGGEST A GREATER POTENTIAL OF HVY SNFL...AS THERE
CONTS TO BE RUN TO RUN AND MODEL TO MODEL DIFFERENCES AS TO HOW
FAR W HVY SNFL...SPCLY THAT PTN FALLING LATE SUN MORN INTO ERLY
SUN EVE...WILL GET INTO OUR FA. IF THE 00Z DTMNSTC ECMWF WERE TO
VERIFY...HEAVY SNFL TOTALS WOULD BE LMTD FROM A LN S AND E OF MARS
HILL TO BANGOR...WHILE THE 00Z GFS ADVERTISES MORE WIDESPREAD AND
EVEN HEAVIER SNFL ACROSS THE NW HLF OF THE FA. INTERESTING
ENOUGH...IF THE 00Z GFS SOLUTION WERE TO VERIFY...A PD OF SLEET
WOULD OCCUR OVR E CNTRL AND INTERIOR DOWNEAST ME SUN AFTN...REDUCING
SN TOTALS THERE. OF COURSE SN TOTALS ALG THE IMMEDIATE COAST AND
OUTER ISLANDS WILL BE PROBLEMATIC DUE TO WRMG OF THE BLYR BY SSTS
OF 45 TO 50 DEGREES...RESULTING IN SN MIXING ATTMS WITH RN.

ALSO...SN RATIOS THIS EVE WILL BE HARD TO GAGE DEPENDING ON HOW
QUICKLY RN CHGS TO SN OVR THE FA...WHICH COULD HAPPEN QUICKLY
CONSIDERING BOTH LLVL COLD ADVCN AND DYNAMIC/EVAPORATIVE COOLING
FROM ALF IS XPCTD TNGT. IN ORDER TO EXPEDITE THE CHGOVR IN OUR
GRIDS...WE RAISED THE TEMP RANGE OF MIXED RN/SN FROM 33.5 TO 35.4
TO 34.0 TO 36.4.

LASTLY...WE CONT TO XPCT WINDS TO BE AN ISSUE...SPCLY LATER TNGT
INTO SUN...RESULTING IN TREE BRANCH LOADING OF WET WIND DRIVEN SN
AND THE POTENTIAL OF DOWNED TREE LIMBS ON POWER LINES.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
SNOW CONTINUES SUNDAY NIGHT...MOSTLY IN NORTHEASTERN PORTIONS OF
THE FORECAST AREA. IN NORTHEASTERN AROOSTOOK...THE POTENTIAL FOR
BANDING AND GREATER SNOWFALL AMOUNTS THAN CURRENTLY FORECAST DOES
EXIST...DEPENDING ON THE LOCATION OF THE CUT-OFF UPPER LOW. STRONG
LOW LEVEL WINDS WILL DEVELOP ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE LOW AND CAUSE
SOME LOCALIZED DRIFTING IN AROOSTOOK COUNTY...IN SPITE OF THE WET
AND HEAVY NATURE OF THE SNOW. LOWS SUNDAY NIGHT WILL BE IN THE MID
20S...EXCEPT NEAR 30F ALONG THE DOWN EAST COAST. WINDS AND CLOUDS
WILL CONTINUE MONDAY WITH HIGHS IN THE LOW-MID 30S NORTH AND UPPER
30S TOWARDS BANGOR AND THE DOWN EAST REGION. SNOW SHOWERS WILL END
MONDAY MORNING IN THE CROWN OF MAINE. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS MONDAY
NIGHT...BUT NORTHERLY WINDS WILL CONTINUE UNTIL LATE IN THE NIGHT.
SHELTERED AREAS IN NORTHERN ZONES WILL DROP TO THE UPPER TEENS
WITH FRESH SNOW COVER. ELSEWHERE...LOW 20S ARE FORECAST EXCEPT
TOWARDS THE COAST WHERE UPPER 20S ARE EXPECTED.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
OVERRUNNING HIGH CLOUDS WILL INCREASE DURING TUESDAY. SOME MORNING
SUN AND WARM ADVECTION WILL ALLOW HIGHS TO REACH THE UPPER 30S
NORTH AND LOWER 40S IN THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA. A
WARM OCCLUDED FRONT WILL ARRIVE IN THE SAINT JOHN VALLEY TUESDAY
NIGHT AND SLOWLY SINK SOUTHWARD DURING THE NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY.
LOWS WILL OCCUR EARLY IN THE NIGHT WITH RISING OR STEADY
TEMPERATURES FOR THE DURATION OF THE NIGHT. THE FRONT WILL NOT BE
A BIG PRECIPITATION PRODUCER...BUT WILL BRING PERIODS OF LIGHT
RAIN...DRIZZLE AND FOG. HIGHS ON WEDNESDAY WILL INCREASE TOWARDS
THE LOW TO MID 40S NORTH AND LOWER 50S SOUTH OF A LINE FROM BANGOR
TO CALAIS. THE FRONT WILL FINALLY MOVE OFFSHORE WEDNESDAY NIGHT
BEFORE IT STALLS. WEAK COLD AIR ADVECTION BEHIND THE FRONT WILL
ALLOW WEDNESDAY LOWS TO DROP TO THE LOW 30S NORTH AND UPPER 30S TO
LOWER 40S SOUTH. THE STALLED FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL MOVE NORTHWARD
DURING THURSDAY WITH PRECIPITATION BREAKING OUT AGAIN LATER IN THE
DAY. LOW PRESSURE FORMS ALONG THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY AND MOVES
TOWARDS THE AREA THURSDAY NIGHT. THE TRACK OF THE LOW REMAINS IN
QUESTION AND WILL GO WITH MIXED PRECIPITATION THURSDAY NIGHT INTO
FRIDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
VFR CLGS THIS MORN WILL LOWER TO MVFR FROM S TO N ACROSS THE TAF
SITES THIS AFTN WITH LGT RN...THEN TO IFR TNGT AS RN CHGS TO SN.
IFR TO VLIFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ON SUN WITH CONTD SNFL...
POSSIBLY HVY ATTMS SPCLY KHUL AND KBGR. SN MAY MIX WITH RN ATTMS
AT KBHB SUN.

SHORT TO LONG TERM: LIFR IN SNOW WILL OCCUR SUNDAY NIGHT.
CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE TO MVFR...FIRST AT BGR AND BHB...AND
SLOWLY SPREAD NORTHEAST TO CAR AND FVE BY MONDAY MORNING. ALL
SITES WILL TRANSITION TO VFR MONDAY AFTERNOON. WIND GUSTS WILL
REACH OVER 30 KT MONDAY. VFR CONTINUES UNTIL TUESDAY NIGHT WHEN
ANOTHER BOUT OF IFR DEVELOPS AND CONTINUES MUCH OF WEDNESDAY. FOG
IS A THREAT LATER TUESDAY NIGHT WELL INTO WEDNESDAY. &&

.MARINE...
WE WILL CONT TO WITH GLW...WITH WINDS INCREASING TO GALE STRENGTH
ACROSS ALL OF OUR WATERS BY THIS AFTN AS THE SFC PRES GRAD
INCREASES OVR THE REGION WITH THE APCH OF COAST LOW FROM THE SW.
MAX WINDS WILL LIKELY BE SUN MORN INTO ERLY AFTN WHEN NEAR STORM
FORCE GUSTS CAN BE XPCTD. KEPT CLOSE TO WW3 WV GUIDANCE FOR FCST
WV HTS.

SHORT TERM: THE GALE CONTINUES SUNDAY NIGHT AND WILL TRANSITION TO
AN SCA WELL INTO MONDAY EVENING. THE NEXT SCA DEVELOPS LATER
TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY.

&&

.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...WINTER STORM WATCH FROM THIS EVENING THROUGH LATE SUNDAY NIGHT
     FOR MEZ002-004>006-010-011-015>017-029>032.
MARINE...GALE WARNING FROM 1 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON TO 1 AM EST MONDAY
 FOR ANZ050>052.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...VJN
SHORT TERM...MCW
LONG TERM...MCW
AVIATION...VJN/MCW
MARINE...VJN/MCW



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