Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Caribou, ME

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FXUS61 KCAR 250121
AFDCAR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME
921 PM EDT THU APR 24 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE SOUTH OF NOVA SCOTIA WILL DRIFT SLOWLY EAST AWAY
FROM THE REGION THIS EVENING. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD EAST LATER TONIGHT
INTO FRIDAY NIGHT...THEN MOVE EAST ON SATURDAY. ANOTHER LOW FROM
THE GREAT LAKES WILL APPROACH SATURDAY NIGHT.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/...
922 PM...THE BAND OF SNOW ASSOCIATED WITH THE DEFORMATION ZONE
ACROSS EASTERN MAINE IS VERY RAPIDLY DIMINISHING IN BOTH COVERAGE
AND INTENSITY. ANY ADD`L SNOWFALL WILL ONLY AMOUNT TO A TRACE IN
MOST AREAS AS THE LAST OF THE SNOW ENDS WITHIN THE NEXT HOUR OR
TWO. WILL MAKE SOME UPDATES MAINLY TO THE POPS/WX BASED ON THE
LATEST OBSERVATIONS AND RADAR RETURNS.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
AS THE LOW CONTINUES TO DRIFT AWAY...THE DEFORMATION BAND PARKED
IN NORTHEASTERN AROOSTOOK WILL WEAKEN AND DISSIPATE THIS EVENING.
SNOW WILL START TO ACCUMULATE AGAIN BRIEFLY THIS EVENING AS
TEMPERATURES FALL A COUPLE OF DEGREES...BUT SNOW SHOULD END BEFORE
MUCH MORE THAN ANOTHER INCH STICKS. TOTALS MAY REACH NEARLY 5
INCHES ON GRASSY SURFACES IN FAR NORTHEASTERN AROOSTOOK...ESPECIALLY
FOR THE HIGHER TERRAIN. CLOUDS AND GUSTY NW WINDS WILL LINGER
THROUGH THE NIGHT WITH LOWS FALLING IN THE LOW 30S. HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS TOMORROW WITH CLOUDS DISSIPATING FROM SOUTH TO NORTH IN THE
MORNING. WITH MOST AREAS RECEIVING SUNSHINE IN THE
AFTERNOON...HIGHS WILL CLIMB TO THE UPPER 50S FOR BANGOR AND UPPER
40S TOWARDS THE CROWN OF MAINE. WINDS WILL BE MUCH LIGHTER WITH
THE HIGH BUILDING AND GUSTS WILL ONLY REACH JUST OVER 15 MPH.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
WEAK SURFACE RIDGING OVER THE AREA FRIDAY EVENING WILL GRADUALLY
GIVE WAY TO INCREASING CLOUDS OVERNIGHT AS THE NEXT SYSTEM
APPROACHES. LOWS FRIDAY NIGHT WILL RANGE FROM THE LOW 30S NORTH TO
THE UPPER 30S SOUTH. CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE TO THICKEN UP SATURDAY
WITH RAIN GRADUALLY DEVELOPING FROM WEST TO EAST ACROSS THE AREA
DURING THE AFTERNOON AS AN UPPER LOW AND ASSOCIATED SURFACE LOW
SLOWLY MOVES EAST OUT OF THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES. AS THE UPPER LOW
PUSHES OFF THE COAST SATURDAY NIGHT, THE SURFACE LOW WILL ORGANIZE
WELL SOUTH AND EAST OF THE REGION. EXPECT PERIODS OF RAIN AND
SHOWERS TO CONTINUE AND MIX WITH AND CHANGE TO WET SNOW OVER
NORTHERN AREAS...ESPECIALLY OVER THE WESTERN MOUNTAINS.
PRECIPITATION LOOKS TO BE RELATIVELY LIGHT AND THIS COUPLED WITH
TEMPERATURES NEAR FREEZING SHOULD KEEP ANY ACCUMULATION GENERALLY
UNDER AN INCH FOR MOST AREAS. THE EXCEPTION WILL BE HIGHER
ELEVATIONS WHERE AN INCH OR TWO OF SNOW WILL BE POSSIBLE.

SUNDAY REMAINS UNSETTLED AS THE SURFACE AND UPPER LOW BECOME
VERTICALLY STACKED AND REMAIN SITUATED SOUTH OF THE AREA OVER THE
ATLANTIC. TEMPERATURES WILL BE COOL FOR LATE APRIL BUT SHOULD WARM
ENOUGH TO CHANGE ANY SNOW TO RAIN AND SHOWERS. HIGHS WILL RANGE
FROM THE LOW 40S NORTH TO THE UPPER 40S SOUTH. GUSTY WINDS OUT OF
THE NORTH WILL ALSO HELP MAKE CONDITIONS FEEL QUITE RAW FOR THIS TIME
OF YEAR.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST TO SLOWLY IMPROVE IN THE LONG RANGE. WHILE MONDAY
LOOKS TO BE SLIGHTLY WARMER AND NOT QUITE AS UNSETTLED, STILL
EXPECT SOME SCATTERED SHOWERS AS THE PESKY LOW LINGERS. THIS LOW
SHOULD FINALLY GIVE WAY TO STRONG SURFACE RIDGING BUILDING DOWN
FROM QUEBEC FOR TUESDAY WHICH SHOULD RESULT IN A DRY DAY WITH SOME
SUNNY BREAKS DEVELOPING. THIS RIDGE CONTINUES TO BUILD DOWN INTO
THE AREA FOR WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY WITH DRY WEATHER UNDER PARTLY
SUNNY SKIES AND TEMPERATURES GRADUALLY RETURNING TO MORE SEASONAL
VALUES.

&&

.AVIATION /01Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
NEAR TERM: IFR CONDITIONS WILL BE THE PREDOMINATE CONDITION
THROUGH TONIGHT FROM KHUL NORTHWARD WITH POCKETS OF LOW MVFR.
SNOW IS IN THE PROCESS OF WINDING DOWN THIS EVENING AND WILL END
BY 04Z AT THE NORTHERN TAF SITES. MVFR WILL PREVAIL FOR BGR AND
BHB THIS EVENING...AND LIFT TO VFR OVERNIGHT. IFR CIGS WILL
QUICKLY BREAK UP FRIDAY MORNING NORTH OF HUL EN ROUTE TO VFR BY
MID TO LATE MORNING.

SHORT TERM:
VFR CONTINUES THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT BEFORE GIVING WAY TO MVFR AND
EVENTUALLY IFR FOR THE SOUTHERN SITES SATURDAY AS CLOUDS AND RAIN MOVE
IN. THESE CONDITIONS SHOULD HOLD OFF UNTIL SATURDAY EVENING FOR THE
NORTHERN SITES. EXPECT MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS TO PERSIST RIGHT
THROUGH SUNDAY AND POTENTIALLY MOST OF MONDAY DUE TO CLOUDS AND
SHOWERS BEFORE IMPROVEMENT OCCURS TUESDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: A NORTH WIND IS STILL GUSTING TO 25+ KT AT THE EASTERN
MAINE SHELF. THE SCA WILL REMAIN IN PLACE UNTIL LATE TONIGHT AS
WIND SLOWLY DIMINISHES. NO FURTHER ADVISORIES WILL BE REQUIRED
DURING THE PERIOD AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE WATERS.

SHORT TERM:
CONDITIONS REMAIN FAIRLY QUIET ON THE SEAS THROUGH SATURDAY BEFORE
WINDS PICK UP HEADING INTO SUNDAY TO NEAR SCA LEVELS AS LOW PRESSURE
STRENGTHENS EAST OF THE REGION. THESE WINDS CONTINUE INTO SUNDAY
NIGHT BEFORE DIMINISHING HEADING INTO MONDAY.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
THE SNOW THAT FELL ACROSS NORTHERN MAINE LAST NIGHT AND TODAY WAS
A VERY WET SNOW (5:1 RATIOS) WITH WATER CONTENT OF 0.50-0.75".
RIVERS CONTINUE TO RUN HIGH AND WILL SEE SOME ADD`L RISES OVER THE
NEXT 24 HOURS. THERE HAS BEEN SOME INCREASED FLOW ON THE ST CROIX
RIVER DUE TO RELEASES FROM GRAND LAKE AND GRAND FALLS DAM.

&&

.CLIMATE...
THE SNOW CONTINUES TO ADD UP AT CARIBOU. 3.3" AS OF 8 PM EDT
TODAY HAS PUSHED THE SEASONAL TOTAL TO 150.7", WHICH MAKES THE
WINTER OF 2013-2014 THE 6TH SNOWIEST ON RECORD. THE 3.3" OF SNOW
THAT FELL TODAY ALSO RANKS AS THE 10TH GREATEST CALENDAR DAY
SNOWFALL AT CARIBOU SO LATE INTO THE SEASON. IT IS THE GREATEST
SNOWFALL EVENT SO LATE IN THE SEASON SINCE 3.6 INCHES OF SNOW WAS
OBSERVED ON APRIL 29, 2005.

&&

.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 5 AM EDT FRIDAY FOR ANZ050>052.

&&

$$
NEAR TERM...CB/MCW
SHORT TERM...FITZSIMMONS
LONG TERM...FITZSIMMONS
AVIATION...CB/MCW/FITZSIMMONS
MARINE...CB/MCW/FITZSIMMONS
HYDROLOGY...CB
CLIMATE...CB



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