Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Caribou, ME

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000
FXUS61 KCAR 202208
AFDCAR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME
608 PM EDT MON OCT 20 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD EAST OF THE REGION TONIGHT. LOW PRESSURE
WILL INTENSIFY SOUTH OF THE REGION ON TUESDAY AND LIFT SLOWLY
NORTHWARD WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY.
&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/...
6 PM UPDATE...DECREASED CLOUD COVER JUST A BIT THROUGH THE EVENING
HOURS AND BROUGHT TEMPS AND DEW POINTS DOWN A COUPLE DEGREES.
OTHERWISE, NO MAJOR CHANGES THIS HOUR.

AT THE START OF THE PERIOD A WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE RIDGED
INTO THE AREA BETWEEN A LOW PRESSURE EXITING TO THE EAST INTO THE
CANADIAN MARITIMES...AND A NEW LOW OVER THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES.
THERE WILL BE A CLOSED UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER EASTERN QUEBEC...WITH
A BROAD AREA OF LOWER HEIGHTS EXTENDING FROM THE LOW BACK TO
HUDSON BAY...WITH A TROUGH DIGGING SOUTH...WEST OF THE
APPALACHIANS SUPPORTING THE NEW LOW OVER THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES.
BY TUES MRNG THE RIDGE CONTINUE TO BUILD EAST...AS THE LOW OVER
THE GREAT LAKES MOVES TO THE ERN LAKES...THE SUPPORTING TROUGH
CONTINUES TO DIG SOUTH AND SHIFTS TO THE EAST OVER THE ATLANTIC
COAST STATES. BY THE END OF THE PERIOD THE SFC LOW MOVES SOUTH TO
SRN PA...THE GFS/NAM SHOW A CLOSE LOW STACKED ABOVE THE SFC
LOW...THE ECMWF/GEM SHOW AN OPEN TROUGH THAT IS ABOUT TO CLOSE
OFF. TUES AFTERNOON THE WEATHER ASSOCIATED WITH THE OCCLUDED FRONT
WILL MOVE INTO SW COAST OF MAINE. BY THE END OF THE PERIOD...THE
WEATHER WILL EXTEND MOST OF THE REST OF THE STATE. THE GFS EXTENDS
THE WEATHER INTO NRN MAINE...THE ECMWF/GEM/NAM TO AROUND
MILLINOCKET.

LOADED A BLEND OF GFS/ECMWF/GEM/NAM THROUGH THE PERIOD FOR
MAX/MIN TEMPS...HRLY T/DP/WND/SKY/POP. LOADED HPCQPF...ADDED 15
PERCENT TO WNDS FOR GUSTS OVER LAND...25 PERCENT OVER WATER.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THE MAIN CONCERNS IN THE SHORT TERM CONTINUE TO BE THE SIGNIFICANT
RAIN POTENTIAL ALONG WITH GUSTY NORTHEAST WINDS.

ONLY MADE MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO SKY AND POPS THROUGH THIS FORECAST
TERM. ONLY REAL CHANGE WAS TO SHOW A SHARPER GRADIENT OF POPS ACROSS
THE CROWN OF MAINE...WHERE DRIER AIR IN ASSOCIATION WITH THE HIGH TO
OUR NORTH MAY RESULT IN VERY LITTLE MEASURABLE RAIN ACROSS NORTHERN
AREAS...ESPECIALLY THE ST JOHN VALLEY THROUGH THURSDAY.

AN UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL SLOWLY MIGRATE ACROSS THE MID ATLANTIC
TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY AND THEN JUST TO THE EAST OF SRN NEW
ENGLAND BY THURSDAY. MEANWHILE...STRONG HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN
ANCHORED TO OUR NORTH. THIS WILL RESULT IN A DEEP E TO SE FLOW OFF
THE ATLANTIC. THIS WILL TRANSPORT WAVES OF RAINFALL ACROSS MAINE
RIGHT THROUGH THE SHORT TERM PERIOD.

THE GRADIENT WILL ALSO INCREASE ACROSS THE REGION WITH THE HIGH TO
OUR NORTH AND LOW PRESSURE TO OUR SOUTH. 925 MB WINDS INCREASE TO
45-50 KTS LATER WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY WITH GUSTY NORTHEAST
WINDS DEVELOPING DURING THIS TIME FRAME...ESPECIALLY ACROSS DOWN
EAST. MAY NEED TO CONSIDER A WIND ADVISORY FOR PORTIONS OF DOWN
EAST AS WE GO INTO WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY.

THE HIGHEST RAIN AMOUNTS THROUGH THURSDAY ARE EXPECTED TO BE ACROSS
DOWN EAST AND THE WESTERN MAINE MOUNTAINS WHERE WE ARE EXPECTING
RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 2 TO 3 INCHES THROUGH THURSDAY. NO HYDRO
HEADLINES YET BUT LATER SHIFTS WILL NEED TO MONITOR THIS AREA FOR
NECESSITY OF FLOOD WATCHES ESPECIALLY IN LIGHT OF THE HEAVY RAIN
THAT FELL ACROSS PORTIONS OF THIS AREA RECENTLY.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
THE LONG STRETCH OF UNSETTLED WEATHER WILL CONTINUE RIGHT THROUGH
THE END OF THE WEEK AS THE REGION REMAINS UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF A
PERSISTENT UPPER LOW. THE SURFACE LOW WILL BE CENTERED JUST OFF
CAPE COD THURSDAY NIGHT, BUT WILL SLOWLY PUSH NORTHEAST THROUGH
FRIDAY, REACHING THE CANADIAN MARITIMES BY THE WEEKEND. AS SUCH,
THE HEAVIEST PRECIPITATION OF THE PERIOD WILL OCCUR THURSDAY NIGHT
INTO FRIDAY AND SHOULD GRADUALLY WIND DOWN THEREAFTER AS THE
SURFACE SYSTEM MOVES AWAY FROM OUR AREA. CAN`T REALLY RULE SHOWERS
OUT COMPLETELY UNTIL MONDAY, WHEN A LARGE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE
LOOKS TO BUILD ACROSS THE EASTERN CONTINENTAL UNITED STATES.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE SEASONABLE, WITH THE OVERNIGHTS RELATIVELY
MILD DUE TO THE INFLUX OF MOISTURE. THEREFORE, DON`T EXPECT MUCH,
IF ANY, SNOWFALL, EVEN ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF THE NORTHWEST.

&&

.AVIATION /22Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
NEAR TERM: BKN SKY CON EARLY...THEN CLEARING. VFR CONDITIONS ALL SITES
THROUGH TOMORROW MORNING. INCREASING HIGH AND MID CLOUDS
OVERNIGHT. DECREASING CEILINGS TOMORROW. MVFR CONDITIONS BHB AND
BGR LATE AFTERNOON WITH CHANCE FOR RAIN BY THE END OF THE PERIOD.

SHORT TERM: STRONG HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN TO THE NORTH OF MAINE
THROUGH THURSDAY AS LOW PRESSURE MOVES SLOWLY NORTH FROM SOUTHERN
NEW ENGLAND. RAIN AND GUSTY NORTHEAST WINDS WILL BEGIN TO AFFECT
THE TERMINALS WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY.

KFVE/KCAR/KPQI MAY REMAIN GENERALLY VFR THOUGH THURSDAY WITH ONLY
PERIODS OF LIGHT RAIN AND PERHAPS OCCASIONAL MVFR CIGS. BEST
CHANCE OF IFR AT THESE TERMINALS WILL BE THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY
TIME PERIOD WHEN HEAVIER RAIN IS EXPECTED.

KBGR/KBHB EXPECT MVFR/IFR TO DEVELOP TUESDAY NIGHT AND CONTINUE
THROUGH THURSDAY WITH PERIODS OF WIND DRIVEN RAIN ON GUSTY
NORTHEAST WINDS.

AL TERMINALS SHOULD SEE IMPROVEMENT TO VFR/MFVR AS STEADIES RAIN
TAPER TO SHOWERS BY SATURDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: WINDS AND SEAS WILL BE BELOW SCA CRITERIA THROUGH THE PERIOD.


SHORT TERM: A GALE WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED BEGINNING TUESDAY EVENING
THROUGH THURSDAY. A STRENGTHENING PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN HIGH
PRESSURE NORTH OF THE WATERS AND LOW PRESSURE OFF THE NEW ENGLAND
COAST WILL RESULT IN GUSTY NORTHEAST WINDS WITH A FEW GUST UP TO
45 KT POSSIBLE WEDNESDAY/WEDNESDAY NIGHT. SEAS ARE EXPECTED TO
BUILD FROM 6 TO 9 FT DURING THIS PERIOD AS WELL. VISIBILITY WILL BE
REDUCED AT TIMES TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY IN 1 TO 3 NM IN
RAIN.

&&

.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
MARINE...GALE WATCH FROM TUESDAY EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY EVENING FOR
     ANZ050>052.

&&

$$
NEAR TERM...NORTON/BLOOMER
SHORT TERM...DUDA
LONG TERM...HASTINGS
AVIATION...NORTON/DUDA
MARINE...NORTON/DUDA





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