Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Caribou, ME
FXUS61 KCAR 261917
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Caribou ME
317 PM EDT TUE JUL 26 2016
Weak high pressure builds into the area tonight. A cold front will
slowly work across the state Wednesday night and Thursday.
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
Isolated to scattered showers exist this afternoon through the
area, with just a small risk of an isolated storm. Showers will
die off quickly after dark with clearing skies and high pressure
settling in. May see some radiation fog develop in the valleys
A cold front approaching from the northwest could spark scattered
storms in the north on Wednesday afternoon. Nothing too strong
expected. Expect Downeast to remain dry. Warm and fairly muggy,
but dewpoints should be just a touch lower than Tuesday`s.
.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
Low pressure will pass to the north of the state Wednesday Night.
Expect showers and thunderstorms in the evening as the front
approaches. More showers and thunderstorms are expected to break
out across the state during the day Thursday as the front moves
across the region. For Friday the front is expected to stall near
the coast, so expect more showers in the south with dry conditions
expected in the north Friday.
.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
Uncertainty resides for the weekend into early next week.
Frontal boundary stalled along the coast will be the focus for
some showers and perhaps a few tstms Friday night. Further n and
w, drying out. Overnight lows are forecast to be in the low to mid
50s n and w while central and downeast areas will see upper 50s to
Confidence is low in regards to the weekend w/discrepancy in the
longer range guidance. The ECMWF along with its individual
ensemble members along w/the GFS shows some light showers for
Saturday but drying out later Saturday into Sunday.The ECMWF being
most pessimistic especially for the coast w/its forecast showing
and overrunning stratiform rain. Decided stay w/a blend and keeps
low chance pops alond the coast Saturday and went much drier for
Sunday. Brought chance pops in for Monday as an upper disturbance
moves across the region. Temperatures are forecast be near normal.
.AVIATION /18Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
NEAR TERM: VFR through the evening outside of the few showers or
storms. Patchy fog later tonight will bring conditions locally to
MVFR/IFR, but low confidence on which TAF sites will get the fog.
Valleys have better shot at the fog than hilltops. VFR Wednesday
outside of scattered storms in the north.
SHORT TERM: Expect VFR conditions for through Thursday with some
brief periods of MVFR in showers during the day Thursday. Expect
VFR Conditions Friday through Sunday.
NEAR TERM: Quiet conditions on the waters, remaining below small
SHORT TERM: Have used the NAM12 to initialize wind grids through
Friday then reduced model winds by 10 percent to compensate for
cold sea surface temperature. transition to super blend winds
late Friday. For waves: With wind speed expected to stay below 10
knots through Sunday expect incoming long period swell to dominate
wave systems. Have used the Near Shore Wave Model to populate wave
grids. Will reduce wave heights by 1 foot through Friday as
boundary wave heights appear too high.