Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Caribou, ME

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FXUS61 KCAR 211718
AFDCAR

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Caribou ME
1218 PM EST Tue Feb 21 2017

.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure cresting over the area this morning will move to
the east this afternoon. A weak occluded front will cross the
region tonight. High pressure will be to our south Wednesday
into Thursday as a small low pressure system tracks to our
north.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
12:20 PM Update: Have adjusted temperature, wind, and dew
point. No other changes.

Today will begin calm, clear and very cold with high pressure
cresting over the area. The high will slide to our east this
afternoon and a light return flow from the south will follow.
Clouds will increase this afternoon ahead of a weakening
occluded front approaching from the west. The front will push
across the area overnight tonight. Some very light showers of
snow, sleet or freezing rain are possible as the front moves
through. Boundary layer temps warm above freezing overnight
while surface temps drop below freezing bringing a potential
for patchy freezing precipitation. Otherwise, tonight will be
mostly cloudy across the area.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
Milder low level southerly and upper level west/southwest flow
sets up for Wednesday and Thursday ahead of a weak cold that
will move through late Thursday or Thursday night. Look for a
healthy amount of cloudcover and maybe some fog Wednesday and
Thursday thanks to the moist low level southerly flow over a wet
snowpack. Temperatures will generally be above freezing
Wednesday through Thursday night, although they will be hovering
around freezing early Wednesday and again early Thursday. Any
precipitation that is around will be very light, but do have to
watch out for patchy freezing drizzle. Better shot at
precipitation (most likely rain) comes just ahead of the front
either Thursday afternoon or Thursday evening, although even
this system looks to produce a quarter inch of rain at best...a
pretty weak system.

Models in good agreement overall, although there is about a six
hour timing uncertainty with the cold front passage Thursday
afternoon or evening.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
High confidence in a rain event and mild temperatures for the
weekend. The weekend event will start out as snow or a mix for
most areas Friday night or Saturday morning, but all areas
should change to rain by late Saturday. This system has a good
amount of moisture to work with and most areas have the
potential to get around an inch of rain or a bit more. Colder
air rushes back in Sunday and Sunday night, but a changeover to
accumulating snow is unlikely. The most important question is
whether the system will be enough to cause any flooding or
breakup. Think that the north should be fine, but Downeast could
see some smaller streams break up with perhaps some minor
flooding. Something to watch.

Much colder with below average temperatures early next week.
Stormy pattern appears to be setting up for middle to latter
part of next week. Too early to tell if systems will be rain vs
snow.

&&

.AVIATION /17Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
NEAR TERM: VFR conditions are expected across the area today and
tonight as high pressure moves off to the east. A few spots may
briefly drop to MVFR across the north late tonight.

SHORT TERM: Generally MVFR with patchy IFR Wednesday through
Thursday night as moist low level southerly flow sets up. Can`t
rule out patchy freezing drizzle early Wednesday and early
Thursday. Likely becoming VFR Friday.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: Winds will diminish early this morning and the air
will become tranquil as high pressure crests over the waters. A
light southerly flow will follow tonight ahead of a weak front
sliding in from the west.

SHORT TERM: Winds and seas generally below small craft levels,
although they could approach small craft just ahead of a cold
front late Thursday.

&&

.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$

Near Term...Mignone


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