Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Caribou, ME

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FXUS61 KCAR 311534
AFDCAR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME
1134 AM EDT THU JUL 31 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE WILL REMAIN TO OUR NORTHWEST TONIGHT. A
DISTURBANCE MOVING AROUND THE UPPER LOW WILL CROSS NORTHWESTERN
AREAS THIS AFTERNOON INTO THIS EVENING. HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE
EAST OF THE REGION FRIDAY.
&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
11:30 AM...FORECAST UPDATED TO BEGIN SKIES MOSTLY SUNNY OVER
CENTRAL AND EASTERN LOCATIONS. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED
LATER TODAY, MAINLY IN WESTERN AREAS.

ORGNL DISC: PATCHY FOG IS MORE PREVALENT ERLY THIS MORN THAN
YSTDY THIS TM... BUT WE XPCT ANY FOG AND LOW CLDNSS TO LIFT ACROSS
THE REGION BY ERLY MORN ACROSS THE FAR N TO AS LATE AS LATE MRNG
OVR DOWNEAST SITES. OTHERWISE...MOST...IF NOT ALL TSTM ACTIVITY
SLATED FOR LATER TDY SHOULD REMAIN N OF THE IMMEDIATE COASTLINE.

WITH REGARD TO THE TSTM POTENTIAL FOR LATER THIS AFTN INTO ERLY
EVE...IT LOOKS TO BE CLOSE TO THE SAME AS IT DID YSTDY ATTM...
WITH HIGHEST POP POTENTIAL ACROSS THE FAR NW. FCST AFTN TO ERLY
EVE ML-SB CAPES OF 500 TO 1000J/KG SUGGEST BEST POTENTIAL OF SVR
TSTMS ACROSS THE FAR NW...WHERE THE BEST UPPER LVL DYNAMICS AHEAD
OF THE UPPER TROF ARE XPCTD. DUE TO LOWER FZG LVLS ASSOCIATED
WITH THIS EVENT...BOTH HAIL AND WIND COULD BE CONCERNS WITH ANY
STRONG TSTMS THAT OCCUR DURG THIS TM...WITH A POCKET OF STEEP MID
LVL LAPSE RATES. ALTHOUGH TYPICAL HVY RN CAN BE XPCTD WITH ANY
TSTM LATER THIS AFTN INTO EVE...FORWARD CORFIDI VECTOR SPEEDS OF
45 KT AND BACKWARD CORFIDI VECTOR SPEEDS OF 15 TO 20KT SHOULD
PRECLUDE MUCH IN THE WAY OF TORRENTIAL RNFL UNLESS TSTM CELLS
ARE TRAINING OVR THE SAME REGION.

MOST IF NOT ALL SHWRS AND TSTMS SHOULD WIND DOWN BY MDNGT AND
COMPLETELY MOVE E OF THE FA. PATCHY FOG WILL AGAIN BE POSSIBLE
LATE TNGT FOLLOWING THE STORMS.

KEPT CLOSE TO CONSENSUS
MODEL/MOS GUIDANCE FOR HI/LOW TEMPS THU/THU NGT...WHICH ARE PRETTY
CLOSE TO SEASONAL NORMS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
UPPER LEVEL LOW AND ASSOCIATED TROUGH WILL CONTINUE TO PLAGUE MUCH
EASTERN PORTION OF THE US. UNDER THIS REGIME EXPECT CHANCES OF
SHOWERS AS DISTURBANCES RIDE ALONG THE FLOW. A SLIGHT CHANCE OF
SHOWERS MAINLY ACROSS THE NORTH AND NORTHWEST PORTIONS OF THE
FORECAST AREA FOR FRIDAY ARE POSSIBLE. THE NAM IS MOST ROBUST WITH
THE PRECIP BUT FOR NOW WILL KEEP JUST SLIGHT CHANCE. OTHERWISE
MUCH OF THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE FA IS EXPECTING PARTLY TO
MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES FRIDAY. THESE SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED TO BE
DIURNALLY DRIVEN AND ARE EXPECTED TO DIE OFF AS WE LOOSE DAYTIME
HEATING. A UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE TO THE SOUTH OF REGION FRIDAY
NIGHT IS EXPECTED TO MOVE NE ALONG THE FLOW BRINGING INCREASED
CHANCES OF SHOWERS WITH A FEW STORMS POSSIBLE AS WE GO INTO
SATURDAY. BASED ON THE MODELED SOUNDINGS THINKING THE BEST CHANCES
FOR STORMS WOULD BE ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND NORTHERN PORTIONS OF
THE REGION. TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE PERIOD ARE EXPECTED TO BE
NEAR TO JUST A FEW DEGREES ABOVE NORMALS.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
THE CLOSED LOW THAT HAS BEEN QUASI-STATIONARY IN THE SOUTHERN
HUDSON BAY AREA WILL SLIDE NORTH AND EAST SATURDAY INTO SATURDAY
NIGHT. THE UPPER LEVEL FLOW WILL CONTINUE TO SUPPORT CHANCES OF
SHOWERS ACROSS THE REGION AS WE GO INTO SUNDAY. ANOTHER SHORTWAVE
TROUGH SOUTH OF THE REGION ACROSS THE TN AND OHIO VALLEYS IS
EXPECTED TO PROGRESS NORTH AND EAST BRINGING BETTER CHANCES OF
SHOWERS MONDAY ALTHOUGH MODELS ARE NOT IN FULL AGREEMENT ON EXTENT
OF THE SHOWER ACTIVITY AND EXACT PLACEMENT. DISTURBANCE CONTINUES
TO PLAGUE THE REGION GOING INTO TUESDAY AS WELL WITH BEST CHANCE
OF SHOWERS ACROSS THE NORTH AND CENTRAL PORTIONS OF THE FA. SHOWER
CHANCES LESSEN AS WE GO INTO WEDNESDAY WITH 20 TO 30 POPS MAINLY
SEEN ACROSS THE NORTH DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS. GIVEN THE
UNSETTLED PATTERN EXPECTING HIGH TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE PERIOD
TO BE NEAR TO BELOW NORMAL AND LOW TEMPERATURES NEAR TO ABOVE DUE
TO THE INCREASED CLOUD COVER.

&&

.AVIATION /16Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
NEAR TERM: MSLY IFR ACROSS THE TAF SITES IN FOG AND ST ERLY THIS
MORN ...SPCLY ERLY WITH CONDITIONS IMPROVING TO VFR BY MIDDAY.
BRIEF MVFR AND EVEN IFR CONDITIONS CAN BE XPCTD WITH ANY LATE AFTN
TSTMS LATE THIS AFTN INTO ERLY EVE. OTHERWISE THE NEXT CHC OF
MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS WILL BE WITH PATCHY FOG LATE TNGT.

SHORT TERM: VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED AT MOST SITES FRIDAY AND
FRIDAY NIGHT. SATURDAY SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS COULD BRING
SITES DOWN TO MVFR PARTICULARLY WHERE HEAVIER THUNDERSTORMS OCCUR.
THESE VARIABLE CONDITIONS CONTINUE AS WE GO INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK
WITH BEST CHANCE OF SHOWERS MONDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: NO HDLNS ANTICIPATED THRU THIS PTN OF THE FCST WITH
WV HTS SLOWLY DIMINISHING THRU TDY AND TNGT. BASED ON LATEST BUOY
OBS...WENT ABOUT 80 PERCENT OF WW3 WV GUIDANCE THRU THU NGT.
AREAS OF MARINE FOG SHOULD LIFT LATER TDY.

SHORT TERM: NO HEADLINES EXPECTED WITH WINDS AND SEAS EXPECTED TO
STAY BELOW SCA CONDITIONS UNDER GENERALLY LIGHT SW FLOW.

&&

.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
NEAR TERM...VJN/MCB
SHORT TERM...JORDAN
LONG TERM...JORDAN
AVIATION...VJN/JORDAN
MARINE...VJN/JORDAN





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