Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Hastings, NE

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FXUS63 KGID 032319
AFDGID

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HASTINGS NE
619 PM CDT THU SEP 3 2015

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 316 PM CDT THU SEP 3 2015

SATELLITE AND OBSERVATIONS SHOW HIGH CLOUDS ACROSS MUCH OF THE
FORECAST AREA THIS AFTERNOON. A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE ACROSS
WESTERN NEBRASKA AND KANSAS HAS BEEN KEEPING WINDS FROM THE SOUTH.

THE REMAINDER OF THE AFTERNOON AND INTO THE EVENING HOURS THE WINDS
WILL REMAIN BREEZY FROM THE SOUTH...BUT AS THE SUN GOES DOWN THE
WINDS WILL DIMINISH AT LEAST A LITTLE. LATE THIS EVENING AND
OVERNIGHT AN UPPER LEVEL WAVE WILL MOVE INTO THE AREA. THERE COULD
BE A FEW SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MOVING INTO THE FAR WEST DURING
THE LATE EVENING. THEY SHOULD MOVE TO THE NORTHEAST AND THROUGH THE
NORTHERN PART OF THE FORECAST AREA DURING THE OVERNIGHT. THE NEXT
QUESTION BECOMES HOW MUCH WILL LINGER INTO FRIDAY MORNING. THE GFS
KEEPS A LITTLE IN THE NORTH WHILE THE NAM AND ECMWF MOVE
PRECIPITATION OUT OF THE AREA AS DOES THE 4KM WRF. HAVE KEPT A
LITTLE IN THE FAR NORTH BUT AM A LITTLE SKEPTICAL IF THERE WILL BE
MUCH.

TEMPERATURES ARE ALSO TRENDING A LITTLE WARMER. WITH THE MOISTURE
AROUND THE AREA THE LOWS TONIGHT SHOULD REMAIN AROUND 70. HIGHS
TOMORROW WILL REMAIN IN THE LOWER TO MID 90S.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 316 PM CDT THU SEP 3 2015

THERE IS POTENTIAL FOR QUITE A BIG TRANSITION FROM THE BEGINNING OF
THE LONG TERM TO THE END...BUT NUMERICAL MODELS AND THEIR ENSEMBLES
ARE COMING INTO BETTER AGREEMENT WITH THE SYNOPTIC PATTERN BY MID
AND LATE WEEK NEXT WEEK.

THE SYNOPTIC PATTERN BEGINS WITH SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT...AS WE WILL
BE SITUATED BETWEEN A PROMINENT RIDGE TO THE EAST/SOUTHEAST AND AN
AMPLIFIED LONGWAVE TROUGH IN THE WEST/NORTHWEST. 850 MB TEMPERATURES
WILL BE IN THE MID 20S CELSIUS...SO SEASONABLY HOT TEMPERATURES ARE
EXPECTED WITH HIGHS WELL INTO THE 90S AND LOWS IN THE 70S. THIS
SHIFTS SOMEWHAT BY SUNDAY/SUNDAY NIGHT AS THE NORTHWESTERN TROUGH DE-
AMPLIFIES AND MOVES INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS AS A NEGATIVELY TILTED
TROUGH. BY LABOR DAY...FLOW STARTS TO TRANSITION TO MORE ZONAL...AS
ANOTHER MORE SIGNIFICANT TROUGH MOVES EAST THROUGH SOUTHERN CANADA
AND THE NORTHERN TIER OF THE UNITED STATES. BY THE END OF THE WORK
WEEK NEXT WEEK...CYCLONIC FLOW BROADENS AND DEEPENS OVER THE
NORTHERN AND CENTRAL PLAINS...WITH 850 MB SIGNIFICANTLY COOLER NEAR
15C.

AT THE SURFACE...THERE SHOULD BE A TROUGH IN THE LEE OF THE ROCKY
MOUNTAINS BEGINNING FRIDAY EVENING...WHICH HAS BEEN A CONSISTENT
FEATURE AS OF LATE. ALSO A COLD FRONT WILL BE LOCATED WELL TO THE
NORTHWEST...OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS...EXTENDING SOUTHWEST INTO THE
NORTHERN ROCKY MOUNTAINS. WITH THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SOLID LOW-LEVEL
JET AND ITS AXIS POTENTIALLY MAKING ITS WAY INTO THE WEST/NORTHWEST
CWA BY OVERNIGHT FRIDAY NIGHT...WE WILL HAVE A SLIGHT CHANCE OF
THUNDERSTORMS IN THAT PART OF THE CWA...ALTHOUGH LOW AND MID LEVELS
WILL BE ON THE DRY SIDE...SO I AM NOT LOOKING FOR A LOT OF COVERAGE
OF ANY PRECIPITATION DURING THIS TIME PERIOD.

THIS COLD FRONT WILL MAKE ITS WAY SOUTHEAST INTO OUR AREA BY
SUNDAY/SUNDAY NIGHT...BUT THERE WILL NOT BE A LOT OF SUPPORT FOR
PRECIPITATION THIS FAR SOUTH...AND THE FRONT ITSELF WILL WASH OUT A
BIT AND BECOME FRONTOLYTIC.

THE MOST PROMISING TIME PERIOD FOR RAIN WILL BE IN THE MONDAY NIGHT
THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT TIME PERIOD WHEN A MORE SIGNIFICANT WAVE MOVES
INTO THE PLAINS ANS HENCE...A STRONGER COLD FRONT AND BAROCLINICITY
MOVES IN. THINGS COULD BE A BIT MORE COMPLICATED IN THIS PERIOD AS A
SURFACE LOW COULD MOVE THROUGH THE CENTRAL PLAINS...WHILE WE MAY BE
IN A BRIEF WARM SECTOR...BEFORE THE COOLER AIR PUSHES IN. BY
WEDNESDAY...THE COLD FRONT SHOULD BE WELL SOUTH OF THE CWA...AND WE
WILL BE MAINLY DRY...BUT I LEFT A SMALL CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION IN
THE FAR SOUTH...WHERE THEY MAY BE JUST CLOSE ENOUGH TO THE BOUNDARY
TO ENCOUNTER SOME RAIN. THE FRONT QUICKLY MAKES A RETURN NORTH...AND
WE COULD ENCOUNTER ANOTHER SHOT AT SOME RAIN AS THE WARM FRONT HEADS
NORTH.

AS FOR TEMPERATURES/DEWPOINTS...SATURDAY WILL PROBABLY BE THE MOST
UNCOMFORTABLE NIGHT AS LOWS IN THE LOWER TO MID 70S ARE EXPECTED
JUST AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING COLD FRONT AND DEWPOINTS WILL REMAIN
AT LEAST IN THE MID TO UPPER 60S. WENT CLOSER TO A
CONSRAW/SUPERBLEND BLEND...IF YOU WILL. WITH THE PASSAGE OF THE COLD
FRONT LATE SUNDAY AFTERNOON INTO SUNDAY NIGHT...DEWPOINTS WILL BE
NOTICEABLY LOWER IN THE 40S/50S AS WELL AS TEMPERATURES DIPPING INTO
THE MID 50S IN THE NORTH TO MID 60S IN OUR SOUTH. ALTHOUGH
TEMPERATURES ON MONDAY MAY STILL BE RATHER WARM INTO 80S FOR MOST
LOCATIONS...DEWPOINTS WILL BE CONSIDERABLY LOWER...MAINLY IN THE 50S
FOR SOUTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA...AND THE MID 50S TO LOWER 60S FOR NORTH
CENTRAL KANSAS. WITH LOWER 850 MB TEMPERATURES...MID WEEK HIGHS WILL
BE MAINLY IN THE MID 70S TO MID 80S AND LOWS IN THE 50S.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z KGRI/KEAR TAFS THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 610 PM CDT THU SEP 3 2015

EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. INSERTED LLWS
AFTER 03Z AS SURFACE WINDS SHOULD LET UP JUST A BIT AND WINDS OFF
THE DECK INCREASE FROM THE 30KT THAT THEY ARE CURRENTLY AT. MODEL
BULK SHEAR VALUES JUST AT OR ABOVE 30KT OVERNIGHT. STILL A SMALL
CHANCE FOR TSTMS TONIGHT BUT BETTER CHANCES TO THE NORTHWEST SO
WENT AHEAD AND REMOVED FOR NOW AND WILL MONITOR WESTERN CONVECTION
OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS. WITH LEE TROUGH TO THE WEST AGAIN
TOMORROW...EXPECT SURFACE WINDS TO ONCE AGAIN INCREASE AFTER 15Z
TO THE 15-20 KT RANGE WITH GUSTS TO 25 KT.

&&

.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JCB
LONG TERM...HEINLEIN
AVIATION...EWALD



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