Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Hastings, NE

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FXUS63 KGID 220552
AFDGID

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HASTINGS NE
1152 PM CST SUN DEC 21 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 524 PM CST SUN DEC 21 2014

A LIGHT MIST HAS FORMED ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA AND
BASED ON RADAR TRENDS IS EXPANDING IN COVERAGE AREA. IN
ADDITION...FORECAST SOUNDINGS INDICATE THAT THE SATURATED STRATUS
LAYER IS NOW THICKER THAN 1 KM...WHICH IS A SUFFICIENT DEPTH FOR
DRIZZLE FORMATION. THEREFORE...HAVE INTRODUCED DRIZZLE TO THE
FORECAST FOR THE EVENING AND EARLY MORNING HOURS.

SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES OVERCAST CONDITIONS ACROSS OUR ENTIRE
FORECAST AREA AND LATEST NAM AND RUC RH FIELDS SHOW LITTLE HOPE
FOR ANY BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS ACROSS
MOST OF OUR FORECAST AREA. THEREFORE...HAVE INCREASED CLOUD COVER
FOR TONIGHT TO 100 PERCENT CLOUD COVER FOR MOST AREAS EXCEPT FOR
FAR SOUTHWESTERN ZONES WHERE THERE COULD BE A FEW BREAKS IN THE
CLOUDS. BUT EVEN ACROSS SOUTHWESTERN ZONES IT SHOULD STILL BE
MOSTLY CLOUDY TONIGHT.

THE COMBINATION OF CLOUDS...DRIZZLE...AND EVEN LIGHT RAIN LATER
TONIGHT WILL KEEP SURFACE TEMPERATURES NEARLY STEADY THROUGH THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS...WHICH IS SUPPORTED BY MOST FORECAST MODELS.
THEREFORE...INCREASED LOWS FOR TONIGHT BY A FEW DEGREES KEEPING
ALL AREAS ABOVE FREEZING TONIGHT FOR LOWS. THE NEAR SURFACE LAYER
(SFC-875MB) SHOULD BE SUFFICIENTLY WARM BASED ON MODEL FORECAST
SOUNDINGS TO KEEP ALL PRECIPITATION IN THE LIQUID FORM THROUGH THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 349 PM CST SUN DEC 21 2014

SATELLITE AND OBSERVATIONS CONTINUE TO SHOW A VERY PERSISTENT AREA
OF LOW CLOUDS AND FOG OVER PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA. MID LEVEL
CLOUDS FROM THE WEST ARE MOVING INTO THE AREA AND MAKING IT HARDER
TO SEE THE STRATUS...BUT RECENT SATELLITE TRENDS HAS BEEN FOR THE
NORTH/NORTHWEST PROGRESSION OF THE STRATUS HAS SLOWED OR EVEN
STOPPED. DURING THE DAYTIME THE FOG HAS REDUCED VISIBILITY MORE THAN
EARLY THIS MORNING. EVEN WITH GOOD SOUTH WINDS THE FOG HAS SPREAD
ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. THE SOUTH WINDS HAVE BROUGHT A CONTINUE
STREAM OF MORE MOIST AIR INTO THE REGION WHICH COULD ACCOUNT FOR
SOME OF THE INCREASE IN CLOUDS AND FOG.

A WEAK UPPER LEVEL WAVE MOVED THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA TODAY. THIS
IS HELPING TO BRING IN THE MID LEVEL CLOUDS. AT THE SURFACE THERE IS
A DEVELOPING LOW AND COLD FRONT ON THE HIGH PLAINS. THIS COLD FRONT
IS EXPECTED TO MOVE THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA TONIGHT AS A STRONGER
UPPER LEVEL WAVE APPROACHES THE AREA. PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED TO
DEVELOP TO THE WEST LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND SPREAD INTO THE AREA
THIS EVENING AND TONIGHT. THE BEST CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION WILL BE
IN THE NORTH AND IN THE EAST. THE PRECIPITATION SHOULD BE MAINLY OUT
OF THE FORECAST AREA BY MORNING. LOOKING AT FORECAST SOUNDINGS THE
PRECIPITATION SHOULD BE RAIN DURING THE NIGHT TONIGHT. TEMPERATURES
SHOULD REMAIN WARM ENOUGH THAT IT WILL BE LIQUID. THE NORTHWEST HAVE
LOW TEMPERATURES THAT ARE AROUND FREEZING BY MORNING...BUT
PRECIPITATION SHOULD BE OUT OF THERE BEFORE IT ACTUALLY DROPS BELOW
FREEZING.

ON MONDAY THE PRECIPITATION SHOULD BE WRAP AROUND FROM THE UPPER LOW
IN THE DAKOTAS. BY THEN THE TEMPERATURES ALOFT START TO COOL OFF AND
SO THERE WILL BE SOME RAIN AND SNOW MIXED DURING THE MORNING IN THE
NORTH. BY AFTERNOON IT SPREADS A LITTLE FURTHER SOUTH. BY THIS TIME
THE SURFACE TEMPERATURES WARM A LITTLE AS THE TEMPERATURES ALOFT
COOL AND ONCE AGAIN EXPECT A MIX OF RAIN AND SNOW. BY LATE IN THE
AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES COULD BE FALLING IN THE FAR NORTH.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 349 PM CST SUN DEC 21 2014

WE START OFF THE LONG TERM MONDAY NIGHT ON THE BACK SIDE OF A MID-
UPPER CLOSED LOW...ASSOCIATED WITH A DEEPENING LONGWAVE TROUGH AS IT
MOVES TOWARD THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. FROM MONDAY NIGHT INTO
TUESDAY/TUESDAY EVENING...WE WILL BE IN A REGION OF LIGHT WRAP
AROUND PRECIPITATION...KEEPING RATHER GLOOMY CONDITIONS AROUND
LONGER. THE TRICKY PART IS FIGURING OUT WHAT GOES ON TUESDAY. MOST
NUMERICAL MODELS ARE PLACING AT LEAST SOME QPF OVER THE CWA...AND
THE NAM/SREF ARE HITTING OUR KANSAS COUNTIES HARDER. THE NAM IS
DISPLAYING .20 INCHES OF QPF AND HAS BEEN CONSISTENT WITH THIS IN
THE PAST COUPLE OF RUNS. THE PROBLEM IS THAT I DO NOT SEE ENOUGH
EVIDENCE TO SUPPORT THE HIGHER CHANCES OF PRECIPITATION ADVERTISED
BY THE SREF ENSEMBLES AND THE NAM QPF. ALL NUMERICAL MODELS SEEM TO
BREAK OFF A SMALL PIECE OF ENERGY THAT WRAPS AROUND THE CLOSED LOW
THAT SHOULD BE LOCATED JUST NORTHEAST OF THE CWA. THIS IS QUITE A
SMALL FEATURE AND IT IS DIFFICULT TO JUDGE WHERE AND IF THIS ENDS UP
ANYWHERE OVER OUR CWA. THERE IS A FAIR AMOUNT OF DOWNGLIDE AND THERE
DOES NOT APPEAR TO BE MUCH SYNOPTIC SCALE LIFT FOR SUPPORT. THERE IS
SOME MID-LEVEL FRONTOGENETIC FORCING FROM THE NAM. THIS WILL BE AN
AREA TO KEEP AN EYE ON. OUR STORM TOTAL SNOW GRID IS GENERALLY IN
THE 1 TO 2 INCH RANGE FOR MONDAY NIGHT/TUESDAY. I HAVE OPTED TO GO A
BIT HIGHER WITH POPS FROM MY NEIGHBORS AND GO WITH 40 POPS...AS I
STILL AM UNCOMFORTABLE WITH WIDE AGREEMENT AMONG MOST NUMERICAL
MODELS THAT WE WILL MEASURE.

WE WILL GET A REPRIEVE FROM PRECIPITATION CHANCES WEDNESDAY...WITH
UPPER LEVEL RIDGING OCCURRING...BUT THIS WILL BE SHORT-LIVED AS
SYNOPTIC FLOW IS PROGRESSIVE. THE TROUGH HITTING THE PACIFIC
NORTHWEST WEDNESDAY EVENING COULD GIVE US A SHOT AT PRECIPITATION AS
EARLY AS THURSDAY AFTERNOON...ESPECIALLY NORTHWEST AS THE TROUGH BY
00Z FRIDAY WILL IS FORECAST TO BE POSITIVELY TILTED FROM THE
NORTHERN GREAT PLAINS TO THE CENTRAL/SOUTHERN ROCKY MOUNTAINS. THIS
QUICK-MOVING WAVE CAN GIVE US A SHOT AT SOME SNOW...BUT AMOUNTS DO
NOT LOOK OVERWHELMING AS THE TROUGH AXIS MAKES ITS WAY EAST OF THE
CWA BY LATE THURSDAY NIGHT...NOT HANGING AROUND LONG ENOUGH FOR
LARGER AMOUNTS. WIND WILL KICK UP BEHIND THE ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT
THURSDAY NIGHT...PROBABLY REDUCING VISIBILITY CHRISTMAS NIGHT FROM
THE BLOWING SNOW. THE WIND WILL CONTINUE TO BE BRISK ON
FRIDAY...CREATING AN UNCOMFORTABLE DAY AFTER CHRISTMAS...WITH COOLER
HIGHS BEHIND THE COLD FRONT NEAR 30 TO THE MID 30S. STILL LOOKS
TROUGHY HEADING INTO THE WEEKEND...SO THE DRY FORECAST IS NOT THE
MOST CONFIDENT. TEMPERATURES WILL BE SEASONABLY COOL.

NUMERICAL MODELS ARE SYNOPTICALLY SIMILAR FOR THE LONG TERM...SO
CONFIDENCE IS FAIRLY HIGH FOR TEMPERATURES AND FOR THE MOST
PART...PRECIPITATION...ALTHOUGH THERE ARE SMALLER SCALE DIFFERENCES
THAT NEED TO BE HAMMERED OUT AS WE APPROACH THEM.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z KGRI/KEAR TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1138 PM CST SUN DEC 21 2014

AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE CROSSING THE REGION WILL BE THE DRIVING
FORCE FOR THE WEATHER OVER THIS TAF PERIOD. NOT A WHOLE LOT OF
PRECIP IN THE AREA AT THE MOMENT...BUT THERE IS ANOTHER SMALL
BATCH WHICH WILL MOVE IN FROM THE NW WITH TIME. DECIDED TO KEEP
PRECIP MENTION AT A TEMPO GROUP...AS THE RAP/HRRR MODELS SUGGEST
THAT IT MAY NOT HOLD TOGETHER. WILL SEE HOW THINGS TREND OVER THE
NEXT FEW HOURS. OTHERWISE...EXPECTING IFR CEILINGS TO STICK
AROUND...VISBYS ARE VFR BUT WOULDNT BE SURPRISED TO SEE THEM AT
LEAST BRIEFLY DROP TO MVFR. MAY SEE SOME IMPROVEMENT DURING THE
DAYTIME HOURS WITH A COLD FRONT MOVING THROUGH THE REGION...AND
NWRLY WINDS BEHIND THE FRONT WILL INCREASE TO NEAR 20 MPH WITH
HIGHER GUSTS.

&&

.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...WESELY
SHORT TERM...JCB
LONG TERM...HEINLEIN
AVIATION...ADP


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