Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Hastings, NE

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FXUS63 KGID 271144
AFDGID

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Hastings NE
644 AM CDT FRI MAY 27 2016

.SHORT TERM...(Today and tonight)
Issued at 401 AM CDT Fri May 27 2016

Today and tonight will bring yet another chance for storms. The
upper low is moving across Colorado this morning and will continue
to approach the Central Plains during the day today...moving over
Nebraska/Kansas this afternoon. Lift ahead of this wave will bring
yet another chance for showers/thunderstorms...especially during
the later afternoon and evening hours.

High-res guidance indicates that after any remaining precip this
morning dissipates there will be a lull in activity until this
afternoon. Because of this have cut down on pops this morning,
increasing it for the afternoon and overnight hours. Instability
and Shear are modest, so some storms could be strong/severe but
widespread severe is not anticipated at this time. The better
chance for severe storms will be over Kansas this
afternoon/evening. Highs today will be in the 70s with lows in
the 50s tonight.

.LONG TERM...(Saturday through Thursday)
Issued at 401 AM CDT Fri May 27 2016

The primary forecast concern through the long term period continues
to lie with thunderstorm chances.

Starting off the period Saturday morning, models are in pretty good
agreement with the overall pattern. An area of upper level low
pressure is expected to be located right over the heart of the CWA
to start the day, with continuing chances for at least scattered
precipitation, especially over north-northeastern sections. During
the daytime hours, model agreement remains good showing this upper
level low sliding northeast, ending up roughly over the MN/IA/SD
border area by evening. At the surface, by sunrise Saturday the main
low looks to be over eastern portions of NE, with north-northwestern
winds in place across most of the CWA. Those N-NW winds build into
the remainder of the the area during the morning, and through the
daytime hours look to top out around 10-15 MPH. Overall the surface
low is on the weaker side, and winds should diminish some (esp. over
southern and western portions) as it also slides off to the
northeast. Mention of thunder remains, but better instability during
the afternoon looks to be when the best precip chances will be
shifting northeast out of the area. What thunderstorms do linger
into the afternoon is shown by models to have around 20 kts of
deeper layer shear to work with, so potential for severe weather not
looking the best, and the CWA is not outlooked in the SPC Day 2
product. High temperatures are forecast to be near normal, with mid
to upper 80s. In the wake of this system, current forecast for
Saturday night remains dry.

Sunday through Tuesday is the time frame with the best chances for
more precip. Models showing an unsettled upper level pattern,
with one area of upper level low pressure sliding east through
southern CA into the desert SW during the period, while another
shifts SE out of western Canada into the northern Rockies and
eventually the northern Plains. Embedded shortwave disturbances and
increasing larger scale lift ahead of these upper lows will drive
the thunderstorm chances, and at this point, the better pops lie in
the Monday/Memorial Day through Tuesday morning time frame. Overall
confidence in the timing/location specifics isn`t the highest right
now due to model differences, still plenty of things yet to be
ironed out, including the potential for strong/severe thunderstorms.
Forecast high temperatures remain in the mid 70 to lower 80 degree
range.

As we get into the mid week period, some uncertainty remains with
how much/if any activity actually lingers into Wednesday, the GFS
says yes, the ECMWF says no. Do have some lingering low pops,
otherwise the rest of the forecast through Thursday night is
currently PoP free, with the potential for more northwesterly flow
to develop in the upper levels. Behind the late weekend/early week
precip chances, cooler air advecting in looks to keep highs for
Wed/Thurs in the lower to mid 70s.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 12Z KGRI/KEAR TAFS through 12Z Saturday morning)
Issued at 644 AM CDT Fri May 27 2016

MVFR to IFR ceilings are impacting the terminals this morning at
least off and on. Expect low clouds to rise to VFR by late
afternoon. The next chance for showers and thunderstorms will
return this afternoon/evening and overnight. Winds will generally
be light and some patchy fog may impact the area as well.

&&

.GID Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
NE...None.
KS...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Billings Wright
LONG TERM...ADP
AVIATION...Billings Wright


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