Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Hastings, NE

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FXUS63 KGID 011051
AFDGID

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HASTINGS NE
551 AM CDT MON SEP 1 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 417 AM CDT MON SEP 1 2014

THE BIGGEST ISSUE WILL BE DETERMINING THE CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION
THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING...AND HOW STRONG THESE STORM MAY BE.

THE MID-UPPER LEVEL PATTER WILL BE BROADLY CYCLONIC...WITH SMALL
PERTURBATIONS WITHIN FLOW. A RATHER STRONG UPPER LEVEL JET WILL
APPROACH 100 KTS. MOST NUMERICAL MODELS ARE PAINTING SOME QPF
EITHER/BOTH AFTERNOON/EVENING OVER ROUGHLY THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE
CWA. THE COLD FRONT FROM YESTERDAY SHOULD BE FAR ENOUGH SOUTH AND
EAST TO KEEP US FROM GETTING IN ON ANY REDEVELOPMENT.

WE WILL BE IN A COOLER AND DRIER REGIME BEHIND THE STRONG COLD FRONT
THAT PASSED THROUGH LAST NIGHT. THE NEXT CONCERN WILL BE A COUPLE OF
MID-LEVEL PERTURBATIONS COMING THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
THIS WILL BE FOCUSED MORE TOWARD THE NORTHERN CWA...WITH THE FIRST
PERTURBATION IN THE AFTERNOON PERHAPS DROPPING FAR ENOUGH SOUTH TO
GIVE A SLIGHT CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION TO THE TRI-CITIES. THEN LATE
EVENING ANOTHER PERTURBATION FOCUSED FARTHER NORTH COULD CLIP ARE
FAR NORTHERN COUNTIES FOR ANOTHER SLIGHT CHANCE. THERE WILL BE
PLENTY OF SHEAR...HOWEVER WITH 40 TO 50 KTS LIKELY. INSTABILITY WILL
BE LIMITED...BUT HARDLY NON-EXISTENT. 1000 J/KG OF CAPE OR POSSIBLY
A LITTLE MORE IS NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING.
THIS COMBINATION WILL BE ENOUGH TO ENTERTAIN THE POSSIBILITY OF AT
LEAST A STRONG STORM OR TWO IN THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE CWA THIS
AFTERNOON...AND PERHAPS FARTHER NORTH IN THE EVENING. WOULD NOT BE
ALL THAT SURPRISING TO GET A 50 MPH WIND GUST AND/OR NICKEL SIZE
HAIL FROM A STORM. THIS IS ALL ASSUMING THAT THE CAP COULD BE
BROKEN...WHICH LOOKS LIKE A POSSIBILITY.

USED BCCONSRAW FOR HIGHS TODAY...WHICH LOWERED TEMPERATURES A BIT
FROM THE PREVIOUS FORECAST. THIS SEEMS TO WORK WELL THE FOLLOWING
DAY AFTER A COLD FRONT PASSAGE. WENT WITH SIMILAR TEMPERATURES FOR
LOWS TONIGHT...PERHAPS NUDGING DOWN SLIGHTLY.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 417 AM CDT MON SEP 1 2014

PRIMARY FORECAST CONCERN LIES WITH THUNDERSTORM CHANCES FOR THE END
OF THE WORK WEEK AND THE UPCOMING WEEKEND.

DRY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO BE IN PLACE AT THE START OF THE LONG
TERM PERIOD...WITH MODELS SHOWING THE UPPER LEVEL PATTERN ACROSS THE
REGION TUESDAY MORNING BEING ZONAL TO SLIGHTLY NWRLY...WITH HIGH
PRESSURE STRETCHING ACROSS THE ENTIRE SRN CONUS AND A BROAD TROUGH
AXIS SLIDING EAST THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES/MIDWEST REGIONS. AT THE
SURFACE...EXPECTING WINDS TO START OUT THE DAY ON THE LIGHT AND
POTENTIALLY VARIABLE SIDE WITH HIGH PRESSURE SET UP ACROSS THE
REGION. THROUGH THE DAYTIME HOURS ON TUESDAY...OVERALL NOT EXPECTING
ANY NOTABLE CHANGES IN THE UPPER LEVELS...WITH THE DRY FORECAST
CONTINUING.  THE AREA OF SFC HIGH PRESSURE LOOKS TO BEING SLIDING
OFF TO THE EAST OF THE CWA...RESULTING IN A RETURN OF SOUTHERLY
WINDS...THOUGH SPEEDS SHOULD TOP OUT ONLY ARND 10 MPH. A REBOUND IN
TEMPS IS EXPECTED FROM TODAY...TOPPING OUT IN THE LOWER/MID 80S CWA-
WIDE.

ONE CHANGE MADE TO THE FORECAST WAS FOR TUESDAY NIGHT WITH THE
ADDITION OF SOME LOW POPS TO ROUGHLY THE SERN THIRD OF THE CWA.
LAST NIGHT A FEW MODELS HAD HINTED AT THE POTENTIAL OF SOME
SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY AFFECTING THIS AREA...AS A WEAK
DISTURBANCE SLIDES THOUGH ALONG WITH INCREASED WARM AIR/MOISTURE
ADVECTION AS A ROUGHLY 30KT LLJ NOSES IN FROM THE SOUTH. THAT TREND
REMAINS IN THOSE MODELS...AND OTHERS TO VARYING DEGREES ARE ALSO
SHOWING THAT POTENTIAL...SO INSERTED SOME 20-30 POPS...MAINLY FOR
THE 06-12Z TIME FRAME. DRY CONDITIONS THEN RETURN TO THE FORECAST
FOR WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT...AS THAT DISTURBANCE SLIDES OFF
TO THE EAST AND MODELS SHOW WARMING MID LEVEL TEMPS KEEPING THINGS
MORE CAPPED OFF. EXPECTING ANOTHER REBOUND IN TEMPS FOR WED...WITH
HIGHS REACHING INTO THE 90S.

AS WE GET INTO THURSDAY...AND ESP THURS NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY...MORE
WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION CHANCES MAKE A RETURN TO THE FORECAST.
MODELS SHOWING A TRANSITION IN THE UPPER LEVEL TO MORE SOUTHWESTERLY
ACROSS THE REGION...AS HIGH PRESSURE BECOMES MORE ESTABLISHED OVER
THE SERN CONUS AND A TROUGH IS MOVING IN FROM THE PAC NW AND INTO
THE ROCKIES. KEPT THE DAYTIME HOURS ON THURS DRY...AS THE
DISTURBANCE IS CONTINUING TO SLIDE EAST /WHAT IS AFFECTING US IS THE
SRN EDGE OF A TROUGH AXIS ORIGINATING FROM A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IN
CANADA/...WITH AN ACCOMPANYING SURFACE COLD FRONT ALSO SETTING UP
ACROSS THE CWA. THINKING IS THAT THE BETTER CHANCES FOR
THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE 00Z AND AFTER...BUT WILL SEE HOW MODELS
TREND...MAY END UP NEEDING POPS IN THE AFTERNOON HOURS.
THUNDERSTORMS LOOK TO DEVELOP ALONG THIS FRONT...WHICH CURRENT
MODELS SHOW OCCURRING ROUGHLY THROUGH THE CENTRAL PART OF THE
CWA...BEFORE SLIDING EAST DURING THE EVENING/OVERNIGHT HOURS.
CONFIDENCE IN POPS IS LOWER AS WE GET INTO THE DAYTIME HOURS FRIDAY
AND INTO THE WEEKEND AND MONDAY...AS MODELS DIFFER WITH WHERE THE
FRONT ULTIMATELY ENDS UP...AND WHETHER IT EVER SHIFTS BACK NORTH
ENOUGH TO AGAIN AFFECT THE CWA.  KEPT SOME LOW POPS GOING THROUGH
THAT TIME FRAME...GENERALLY ACROSS SRN PORTIONS OF THE CWA...AS
MAINLY THE GFS IS SHOWING THAT BOUNDARY LINGERING AROUND CLOSER TO
THE AREA...AND POTENTIALLY BRINGING MORE PRECIP CHANCES.  THE ECMWF
PUSHES THE FRONT/PRECIP FURTHER SOUTH AND KEEPS MORE PERIODS DRY.
WILL SEE HOW THINGS TREND.

THERE IS A STRONGER PUSH OF COOLER AIR ACCOMPANYING THIS COLD FRONT
PASSAGE TOWARD THE END OF THE WEEK...WHICH MAKES THURSDAYS HIGH
FORECAST TRICKY DUE TO THE TIMING OF THE FRONT.  CURRENTLY IT RANGES
FROM NEAR 80 IN THE NW TO LOWER 90S IN THE SE...WITH TEMPS FOR THE
WEEKEND IN THE LOWER/MID 70S.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 548 AM CDT MON SEP 1 2014

I TOOK OUT MVFR VISIBILITY AS THERE HAVE BEEN NO SIGNS OF
REDUCTION OF VISIBILITY. ALSO...A MID-LEVEL DISTURBANCE COULD
GIVE US A SHOT AT SOME THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY LATE AFTERNOON/EARLY
EVENING...BUT SEVERE WEATHER IS NOT ANTICIPATED.

&&

.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...HEINLEIN
LONG TERM...ADO
AVIATION...HEINLEIN


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